What Is Going On? Stocks, Gold, Silver to the Moon as Fed Plans Rate Cut and More Inflation

Like it or not - actually, what's not to like? - stocks ripped higher again on Monday in anticipation of Wednesday's FOMC interest rate policy decision, expected, almost certainly, to be a cut of 0.25% and possibly 0.50%, with more to come.

Wall Street has been giddy over the prospect for a rate cut since the release of August non-farm payroll numbers by the BLS, which showed a gain of only 22,000 jobs for the month and revisions to prior months that demonstrated just how fragile the labor market in the U.S. has become. Of particular note was the revision to June, down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, the first negative print since 2020.

Additionally, BLS also issued its Preliminary Benchmark Revision a week ago (September 9), slashing the job estimates by a record amount of 911,000. All that did was fan the rate cut flames a little higher.

At the same time, gold has been setting price record after price record, up as high as $3,736.70 on the COMEX this morning. Silver has joined the party, trading at around $43.27 today. Silver, in one month, is up a stunning 12.32%, even outperforming gold.

While there are obvious reasons for precious metal demand, the blaring one is the continued debasing of the U.S. dollar and other major fiat currencies. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, is at a 3 1/2-year low Tuesday morning, of 97.05 and has been sliding precipitously since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at 109.35. While it's difficult to believe that the dollar has weakened against the yen, euro, and pound, that is the reality, though all of the major currencies have taken a huge downside hit when measured against real money, gold and silver.

Stock pumpers are cheering a rate cut, which is no doubt inflationary. At the same time gold and silver stackers are cheering just the same. In relative terms, holding either asset class is a winner, though the big gains have been exclusive territory of precious metals for the past two years.

For those without either asset class, life will simply continue to suck. Higher prices from tariffs and inflation will continue to erode purchasing power, everywhere. For the bottom 80% of individuals, there is no escape.

When the rug pull commences - and it will - everything will collapse in a heap, though from the experience of the 2007-2009 sub-prime collapse, gold and silver will rebound much more quickly than stocks, some of which may not recover at all.

In the end, you got to know when to hold, know when to fold 'em...

RIP, Kenny Rogers.

At the Close, Monday, September 15, 2025:
Dow: 45,883.45, +49.23 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 22,348.75, +207.65 (+0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,615.28, +30.99 (+0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 21,394.59, +20.28 (+0.09%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Amid Protests and Government Downfall in Europe, the U.S. Seems Almost Utopian; Gold, Silver, Stocks, Treasuries Rise as Rate Cut Looms

Stocks made gains in anticipation of a long-awaited cut to the federal funds target rate which has been on hold at 4.25-4.50% since December of 2024, when the FOMC lopped off 25 basis points after shedding 50 in September and 25 in November.

While the PPI and CPI readings for August tilted in opposite directions, the PPI declining while he CPI increased to a rate of 2.90% annualized, participants in stocks were unfazed, putting in substantial gains on all the major indices, with the Dow up 0.95% on the week, the NASDAQ adding 2.03%, but the Dow Transports the lone laggard, pulled down 100 points, a 0.63% decline.

During the week, France held a confidence vote on its prime minister, which failed, the choices now for Macron somewhere between capitulation and resignation, though he appointed Sébastien Lecornu on Wednesday, the latest prime minister already facing a no confidence vote in parliament while protests erupted across the country.

Across the Channel in England, millions turned out for a nationawide protest against the government. The "Unite the Kingdom" march, organized by anti-immigrant activist Tommy Robinson was reported to have attracted 110,000, according to mainstream media reports, though photos from the event suggest the numbers were substantially larger.

?????? BREAKING: Over 1 million protesters flood the streets of London

This is the largest protest in British history and a massive stand for free speech.

The message is clear. The people have had enough. The system is breaking. pic.twitter.com/d1jP3ajWp2

— Global Dissident (@GlobalDiss) September 13, 2025

Europe continues to hurtle toward self-extinction as France, England, and Germany are each facing financial and political issues caused by their own governments. Between rising prices, especially for heating and other fuels, continued support for Ukraine, widespread censorship, and the immigration problems, the general public has had all it can take and is nearing revolutionary conditions.

The U.S. was rocked by the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a popular conservative activist who connected well with the country's youth.

None of this deterred Wall Street from sending stocks to all-time highs while treasury notes and bonds also rallied.

The upcoming FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday (9/16-17) will be the highlight of next week's market action. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs remain in force though in legal limbo as the Supreme Court granted expedited status to the administration's appeal to a lower court's ruling that Trump exceeded his authority in slapping tariffs on over 100 countries.

The month of September nearly at its midpoint, politicians are once again suggesting that the government may shut down (partially) if some kind of spending agreement isn't reached by the end of the 2025 fiscal year on September 30. With the national debt nearing $38 trillion and the current deficit running at about $1.2 trillion, whatever the Fed does won't make much of a difference, as James Rickards suggests.

Stocks

The bubble in U.S. stocks continues to grow larger and larger with each passing day while the economy itself appears to be running at stall speed, with growth - if one can even believe the GDP figures provided by the government - at maybe one to two percent. Employment figures are so broadly misrepresented, the U.S. may actually have been losing jobs through most of the past two years. Record revisions to the BLS non-farm payroll data suggest that may be the case.

No matter to the snake oil stock pushers on Wall Street. With billions of fungible dollars at their disposal in retirement accounts and at their own trading desks, the giant firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) and others control more than 80% of all the trading on the largest exchanges. If they choose up, it's up. If they want to take profits and sell, they will, together. Essentially, the banking and stock and fixed-income trading functions within the U.S. are a cartel.

Even though much of the trading in stocks is highly controlled by a small number of parties, that doesn't mean individual investors should avoid it. Since the last financial disaster in 2007-2009, it's been prudent to buy and hold or buy on dips. Stocks just keep rising for just about any conceivable reason. In reality, there doesn't need ot be a reason to buy or sell stocks. As long as the banking cartel is buying, they'll continue to return positively.

Proceed accordingly.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/08/2025	4.48	4.43	4.39	4.32	4.27	4.15	3.93
08/15/2025	4.48	4.42	4.35	4.30	4.22	4.12	3.93
08/22/2025	4.47	4.38	4.36	4.27	4.21	4.08	3.87
08/29/2025	4.41	4.34	4.30	4.23	4.17	4.01	3.83
09/05/2025	4.29	4.24	4.24	4.07	4.05	3.85	3.65
09/12/2025	4.24	4.24	4.20	4.08	4.02	3.83	3.66

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/08/2025	3.76	3.70	3.84	4.03	4.27	4.84	4.85
08/15/2025	3.75	3.73	3.85	4.07	4.33	4.91	4.92
08/22/2025	3.68	3.64	3.76	3.98	4.26	4.84	4.88
08/29/2025	3.59	3.58	3.68	3.92	4.23	4.86	4.92
09/05/2025	3.51	3.48	3.59	3.80	4.10	4.72	4.78
09/12/2025	3.56	3.52	3.63	3.81	4.06	4.65	4.68

Yield on the 30-year bond is at a four-month low (4.66%, 4/30/25); 10-year is at a 5-month low (4.01, 4/4/25).

The yield curve remained partially inverted with the nexus (low point) at 2-and-3-year maturities. The general tendency at the long end this week was in anticipation of a Fed rate cut on September 17, the current betting favoring 25 basis points with 50 not entirely out of the equation.

Yield on the 10-year note was down four basis points, with the 30-year bond dropping 10. Yields on two-year, 3s, 5s, and 7s were all higher, though only marginally. Spreads continued to founder, with 2s-10s at +50 and full spectrum at +40

When the Fed cuts rates on Wednesday (9/17) nothing much will change, though stock and bond markets will likely rally further. The "magic wand" effect of each FOMC meeting is great for selling worthless paper.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil closed out the week at $62.11, up ever-so-slightly from last week's closeout at $61.27.

WTI crude was hovering between correction and bear market since the January 15 peak of $78.71, and now is clearly headed for an extended bear market, having sustained prices at or below $65/barrel for 2 1/2 months. Taking a longer view, oil is nearly half of what it was at the peak of 2022, when it was upwards of $118/barrel. This is indicative of a longer-term stagnation in conjunction with a general supply glut. With an "official" recession looming, prices could drop into the 50s and even the 40s over the medium term.

Gas prices have leveled off over the past month and are lower this week, the national average of $3.15 on Sunday down four cents from a week ago, as Gasbuddy.com reports.

State-by-state numbers show California remaining at the top, up three cents, at $4.64 per gallon. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Mississippi the cheapest, at $2.68, with Oklahoma nearby at $3.72. Oregon has jumped feet-first into the $4+ club with price at $4.28. Washington has caught California at $4.64. Nevada is pushing higher, at $3.88 on average Sunday.

The Northeast and Midwest, out to Michigan and Illinois, are all $3.00-plus except for Ohio ($2.87), Virginia ($2.97) and West Virginia ($2.98). An ark from Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, through to the Dakotas are all sub-$3. Michigan is right at $3.00, while neighboring Wisconsin is $2.90 and Minnesota is $3.04.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 22 states, five more than last week, exclusively concentrated in the South and Midwest. The entire Southeast, even Florida ($2.91) is under $3.00 a gallon.

Bitcoin

This week: $115,368.20
Last week: $111,129.79
2 weeks ago: $108,241.07
6 months ago: $81,877.78
One year ago: $60,382.53
Five years ago: $11,082.85

Ponzi.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.24; last week: 87.68

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/15: $3,381.70
Gold price 8/22: $3,417.20
Gold price 8/29: $3,516.10
Gold price 9/5: $3,639.80
Gold price 9/12: $3,680.70

Silver price 8/15: $38.02
Silver price 8/22: $39.39
Silver price 8/29: $40.75
Silver price 9/5: $41.51
Silver price 9/12: $42.68

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	43.99	53.99	47.33	46.50
1 oz silver bar:	46.81	56.00	49.89	48.87
1 oz gold coin:	3,783.85	3,908.50	3,850.65	3,871.25
1 oz gold bar:	3,744.70	3,870.96	3,809.83	3,807.39

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) remained close to last week's record high since Money Daily began recording in 2021, of $48.15, a decline of 48 cents from the August 31 price of $48.63 per troy ounce.

Since gold and silver continue to press higher, long-time stackers are obviously satisfied. In case there's a pullback on global recession fears, that would be an opportunity to buy in. Current prices are suggesting breakout and follow-through. As long as governments around the world continue to pursue ridiculous policies and overtax their populations, saving in precious metal is an obvious great idea.

WEEKEND WRAP

This week's FOMC meeting may be deemed important and essential by some, but the underlying conditions lend credence to deteriorating conditions in the U.S. and Europe and the ultimate collapse of fiat currency regimes. France is under extreme pressure from the left and right combined. That is where people should keep focus because if France continues to flounder and slide toward civil war or outright revolution (the French are good at it, the country steeped in the history of tyranny and out-of-control governments), it could trigger the breakup of the European Union, which would, by any reasonable measure, be beneficial to all of Europe and to peace around the world.

The technocrats in Brussels will have to be dragged kicking and screaming from their positions of power. Likewise in the U.S. congress, which wields the utmost in hegemony and hubris. The current legislators quite possibly the most corrupt gang of miscreants ever assembled in one place. Those opposed to the government at the federal, state, and local level are quietly growing in number. Many Western "democracies" have become powder kegs of discontent, the people subjected to heavy-handed regulations, taxation beyond their means, lower standards of living, and rising price inflation for everyday needs.

This does not end well. Radical changes are afoot on many levels. Being like a boy scout - prepared - has become almost second sense to most people.

At the Close, Friday, September 12, 2025:
Dow: 45,834.22, -273.78 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ: 22,141.10, +98.03 (+0.44%)
S&P 500: 6,584.29, -3.18 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 6,584.29, -3.18 (-0.05%)

For the Week:
Dow: +433.36 (+0.95%)
NASDAQ: +440.71 (+2.03%)
S&P 500: +102.79 (+1.59%)
NYSE Composite: +238.22 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: -99.77 (-0.63)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Bubble Keeps Getting Bigger; Wall Street Unfazed by August CPI Inflation Reading; Silver Tops All Assets, up 45% Year-to-Date

As usual, Wall Street simply ignored the August CPI reading released Thursday morning and moved higher.

Inflation was shown by the report to be higher than expected, with food and energy main contributors to higher prices. The annual rate of consumer inflation was shown to be 2.9%, nearly one full percentage point higher than the Fed's so-called "price stability" level of two percent. That reading may have put the kibosh on a half percent cut to the federal funds target rate at next week's FOMC meeting, a condition that would arguably be bad news for stocks.

Unfazed, Wall Street continued to believe the Fed would at least cut by 25 basis points, which was good enough to send the major indices to all-time highs. Wall Street doesn't care if a dozen eggs are $6.00, or if the median price of an existing residential home is upwards of $400,000 and unaffordable for most Americans. They don't care about the deteriorating conditions in most U.S. cities, homelessness, immigration, Ukraine, Gaza, assassinations of popular right-wing speakers, or the fact that unemployment is reaching critical levels. In fact, high unemployment, as is becoming apparent due to false reporting by the BLS and subsequent revisions, is actually cheered on by the trading cabal of brokerages and big banks.

The Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate of stable prices and high levels of employment, is failing on both fronts. They are a complete failure, and Wall Street, enamored by the economists which set monetary policy at the Fed are completely OK with that. Wall Street cares about one thing and one thing only: making money on stocks. They could care less if people make or lose millions, so long as their internal trading units are profitable and they're perfectly willing to sell short while advising clients to buy.

While it's a nasty game, playing along with Wall Street can be very financially rewarding if one is aware of the conditions and capable of moving money from sectors to sector, stock to stock, and timing the market well. That's all well and good. It's just that the continued gains on stocks is getting a wee bit ridiculous.

The Shiller PE, or CAPE, stands at 39.58, the second highest ever, and will soon proceed past 40, heading for the record of 44.19 (Dec 1999) that was set at the height of the dotcom bubble. Since today's bubble is bigger, encompassing the financialization of tech, real estate, and the continuance of dollar debasement, it's likely to exceed that 199 level, and possibly by a lot. Clearly, there is no good reason to short this market. That would be tantamount to committing financial suicide.

The only thing to do is play along, reap profits and hope for the best. It's a self-reinforcing feedback loop, leading stocks to ever more extreme valuations. There's nothing to stop the parade higher. Someday, there will be a correction or a crash, but until then, everybody might as well party like it's 1999 because, in an economic sense, it is 1999, only to a greater degree.

So far this week, stocks have done well. Thursday's thrust on the Dow put it up solidly for the week, by 707 points. The NASDAQ is looking at another nice weekly performance. Through Thursday's close, the NASDAQ is up 342 points and the S&P is ahead by 106.

Futures are moderating, with the Dow futures down about 100 points, NASDAQ futures up 20 and S&P futures down four points.

Gold is maintaining a positive posture near record highs, hitting $3,695 overnight. Silver test $43 an ounce and is holding in the mid-$42 range. Silver is up a remarkable 45% year-to-date, so, obviously, stocks aren't the only game in town.

Party on!

At the Close, Thursday, September 11, 2024:
Dow: 46,108.00, +617.08 (+1.36%)
NASDAQ: 22,043.07, +157.01 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,587.47, +55.43 (+0.85%)
NYSE Composite: 21,533.64, +239.07 (+1.12%)

CPI Actually Surprises, Up 0.4 in August and at 2.9% Annual; Food, Energy, Housing Leading Price Advances; Trump Upset; Powell in a Pickle

Stocks got a boost Wednesday from very tame August PPI numbers, sending stocks once more to record highs on the S&P and NASDAQ, though the Dow Industrials didn't stomach the news well, losing more than 200 points.

Overall, the trading was less-than-enthusiastic. Stocks were bid at the open and early in the session, but gradually lost momentum as the session progressed.

Thursday morning, investors were looking again to the BLS, this time for August CPI, expecting a result similar to that displayed by the PPI, i.e., lower inflation.

They didn't quite get it, as August inflation was higher than in August, with the annualized rate up to 2.9%, nowhere near the Fed's stated goal of 2.0%.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

This reading puts a bit of a crimp in Wall Street's plan for higher highs on a regular basis, cheaper money and lower borrowing costs for banks to make loans to corporations to buy back their own stock. WHile the betting for a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday (9/17) was in play after Wednesday's PPI came in at -0.1%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his brain trust on the FOMC might see fit to only cut a quarter point off the federal funds target rate, then follow wiht similar cuts at the November and December meetings. The scary employment figures, however, could make the FOMC lean toward a quicker remedy, as in a half-point decrease.

Powell will tap-dance his way through the press conference, suggesting that the August CPI might be a one-off, driven mostly by increases in the price of gas at the pump, but the data tells a different story. Food prices remain stubbornly high and continue to strip disposable income from what remains of the middle class. The core at 3.1% suggests that Trump's tariffs are fueling further inflation in imported goods, which is just about everything Americans buy.

Trump's messaging on inflation and the economy needs to be sharpened, to focus on re-shoring the industrial base, which is a barren wasteland. It's going to take more than a few months or even a few years to shift manufacturing back to American soil. Trump's insistence that inflation is going or gone is without any realistic in fact. Tariff price increases have only begun to show up. In six months, with higher prices, a lower federal funds rate, and more liquidity for banks to lend overnight to each other and to their corporate brethren, inflation will almost certainly reignite.

From the reaction Thursday morning to the CPI release by the stock futures, traders are focused more on CPI than the troubling employment picture. The Fed is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Chairman Powell may have to twist some arms at the FOMC confab next week if he indeed intends to lower interest rates.

As the CPI numbers were announced, all stock futures traded straight down though they remained positive. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were up 40, NASDAQ Futures up 35, and S&P futures added seven points.

The main benefactor of the higher inflation suggested by CPI was gold, which bounded higher upon the data release. The price was still down from Wednesday, as the usual suspects pushed it back from record territory, but it stood at $3,675 about a half hour before the bell. Silver was relatively stable at $41.45 and WTI crude oil fell 82 cents to $62.27.

The sour news on CPI should lead to another nasty social media outburst from the Tweeter-in-Chief. Maybe firing the entire staff at BLS and the Fed can set matters straight toward the administration's "all's well" messaging.

At the Close, September 10, 2024:
Dow: 45,490.92, -220.42 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 21,886.06, +6.57 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,532.04, +19.43 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 21,294.57, +101.46 (+0.48%)

Inflation Is Under Control; August PPI Down 0.1%; Stocks Set for Rally on View that Fed Cuts 0.50% Next Week

On Tuesday, the BLS released their preliminary benchmark revision, revealing that from the period of April, 2024 though March, 2025, 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported (and revised) had been created.

By Wednesday morning, it's already old news, though it bears a closer look, especially coming on the heels of the prior revision, from April, 2023 to March, 2024, of 818,000 fewer jobs than had been reported for that period.

Wall Street, always casual about numbers that might show the true state of the U.S. economy, shrugged off the data and sent the major indices to record closing highs. Do they - the major brokerages and banks that dominate trading in the stock market - know something the average investor is somehow missing?

It could be that Wall Street traders focus more on earnings from various companies, or that they're piled into a select few stocks unencumbered by employment data, or maybe they just make more money when stocks go up than when they do the opposite. The most likely explanation is that the reality of the employment situation, now revealed, will likely force the Fed's hand at next week's FOMC meeting, into a 50 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, lowering it from 4.25-4.50% down to 3.75-4.00%.

Whatever it is, it appears that any indication that the U.S. economy isn't as powerful, dynamic, and exceptional as one is led to believe is essentially a great thing for stocks. This kind of thinking - that bad news is good - leads one to the conclusion that if Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles were nuked from outer space, the Fed would lower interest rates to something in the range of -5.25-5.50% (negative), so that companies would be paid to borrow. That way, the money the companies borrow to buy back more of their own stocks would come with an added bonus.

Free money! What could be better? Why not blow the whole country to smithereens and hand out $1 billion chacks to the remaining survivors?

As anyone with two brain cells to rub together understands, economics just doesn't work that way. Wall Street's job is to sell stocks to the general, unsuspecting public, so, in the event of bad news, even worse news, or outright horrible news, they just boost the prices a little more, hoping to lure in even more suckers. They're doing a bang-up job and have turned the stock market from a measuring instrument into a completely fake representation of the value of the associated companies on any given index. Sure enough, this works for them, and for the passive investors who see their retirement savings growing by leaps and bounds. Stocks are waaaaaaaay up. Everybody's happy... just like it was in 1929, or 1999, or 2007. We all know what happened next.

There is about a 100% probability that stocks will retreat from these lofty levels at some point, though it is also highly probable that stocks will rise significantly before then.

In light of the BLS revisions, a slew of economists are now expressing opinions stating that the U.S. has actually been in a recession since April of last year. That's revealing, because, since the revision prior to that was nearly as bad, shouldn't they have been saying the U.S. was in a recession as far back as April, 2023? It would stand to reason, but anybody in terms of economics business knows they couldn't say that because it might actually be true. In any case, this little bit of drama is yet another example of just how phony anything and everything having to do with Wall Street and Washington, D.C. really is.

There's so little truth to money and government these days it's a wonder the country still exists.

Maybe it actually doesn't.

This morning the world of economics and business will be treated to more fakery from the BLS, this time in the form of the August Producer Price Index (PPI).

Here's the statement from the July release, put out for public consumption on August 14:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July. Prices for final demand services advanced 1.1 percent, and the index for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July.

Those were pretty sobering numbers, so what happened on Wall Street?

Stocks actually declined after that piece of news for about a week, before rising well past the original level and onward to new all-time highs. The investing class apparently has about the same memory capacity as a gnat.

The PPI figures were released at 8:30 am ET.

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

So, now, we can all believe the BLS. Inflation is under control. 50 basis points it will be.

As expected, stock futures took off like an Elon Musk rocketships to Mars.

As they say, "you can't make this stuff up." Unless you're the government, that is.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 9, 2025:
Dow: 45,711.34, +196.39 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 21,879.49, +80.79 (+0.37%)
S&P 500: 6,512.61, +17.46 (+0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 21,193.11, +19.47 (+0.09%)