WEEKEND WRAP: CME Shutdown Analysis with Commentary from Vince Lanci, Mike Maloney, David Morgan, Mario Innecco, Others, and the Silver Splurge

Without a doubt, though the mainstream media won't readily admit it, the biggest story of the week was the shutdown of the CME and COMEX late on Thanksgiving night (Thursday) and into Friday morning.

With that in mind, the usual sections in this week's WEEKEND WRAP will be shortened versions, focusing on the big story in gold and silver. Detail can be found in the Precious Metals section below.

Stocks

Stocks had one of the best weeks of the year, as the major averages advanced every day of the holiday-shortened week. Adding in the Friday prior, the majors have finished on the upside five consecutive sessions.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67

Spreads remain wide. Fed speakers are in "quiet mode" prior to the next FOMC meeting, so there will be no Fed speakers in the week ahead. Otherwise, the treasury market is functioning, though there is crowding out due to excessive issuance by the U.S. Treasury, with more than $1 trillion in refunding ongoing.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $58.48, which was very close to the high of the week on Friday, though numbers were skewed everywhere due to the "cooling" issue with the CME's computer banks. WTI hit a low of $57.23 on the Tuesday, November 25th, and continues to manifest weakness due to dwindling demand and a glut on world markets, the laughable sanctions against Russia's largest crude producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, not withstanding.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.98, the lowest price in nearly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.55 per gallon, down 11 cents over the past two weeks, followed by Washington ($4.15), the two constituting the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.75), was down two cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in near the lowest price in about a year, $2.45. Louisiana ($2.50) and Mississippi ($2.51) were next. Texas ($2.52) and Arkansas ($2.54) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.80 with the exception of Florida ($3.01) down 10 cents from last week.

In the Northeast, prices remained elevated. Only New Hampshire ($2.94), Delaware ($2.98) and Maryland ($2.99) posted under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.22) easily the highest. Vermont ($3.11) and New York ($3.12) were the next.

In the midwest region, where the price relief was felt the most, Illinois ($3.13) was the only state above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.49) and Kentucky ($2.61).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 31 states, a gain of three from last week and five over the past two weeks.

Bitcoin

This week: $91,709.19
Last week: $87,373.34
2 weeks ago: $95,387.89
6 months ago: $104,494.50
One year ago: $96,490.37
Five years ago: $19,156.46

Bitcoin has recovered from a low of around $81,000 on November 22. It remains 26% below its all-time high of October 7 ($124.310.60).

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 74.80; last week: 81.33

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40
Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40

Silver price 10/31: $48.25
Silver price 11/7: $48.22
Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/31: $3997.10
Gold 11/7: $3999.89
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4216.71

Silver 10/31: $48.65
Silver 11/7: $48.33
Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37

What happened late-night on Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 27) was nothing less than pure panic in international markets. While the official story of the nearly 12-hour "dark" period of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which includes COMEX trading, halted all futures and options trading due to a cooling failure at the CyrusOne CHI1 data center in Chicago. The technical issue forced the CME to shut down its Globex electronic trading platform, crucial for price discovery in commodities such as wheat, corn, oil, gold, silver, and U.S. equity futures.

The outage affected trading in global markets, leading to volatility and disruptions in pricing. Traders faced challenges as they reverted to traditional methods of contacting brokers due to the lack of live trading. Following the shutdown, there was a notable surge in silver prices, which increased by more than $3.00.

CyrusOne's engineering teams were actively working to restore full cooling capacity at the affected data center throughout the night and early morning. CME officials indicated that they were working to stabilize the data center and provided updates on the resumption of trading. Finally, at 8:00 am ET, CME announced that trading on its platform would resume at 8:30 am ET, in time for stock futures to price before the cash market open.

That was the official story from market operators, which almost nobody believes. The reason for the CME "pulling the plug" on its entire network run the gamut from wild conspiracy theories to more mundane explanations, such as the sheer volume of paper contracts - which are usually magnitudes higher than actual commodities available for delivery, especially gold and silver - overwhelmed the system.

Among the more assiduous claims was Vince Lanci's of Arcadia Economics on youtube.com. Lanci spoke from personal experience, outlining three scenarios:

1) The failure was technical. CMEs software or hardware malfunctioned. Lanci points out that the last two CME outages - in 2014 and 2019 - were at a time when they had no competition, but notes that the global condition has changed and the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now compete with the CME "to define the price the world references." The outage exposes CME vulnerability.

2) Lanci observed the speculation of some traders and analysts, that at the time of the outage, silver was at an all-time high, platinum was surging and China had, on that day, launched its platinum contract. The concerns of traders put on display the erosion of confidence in Western systems as opposed to the emergence of China's platforms.

3) Lanci then looked at actual silver and gold trading during the outage, which included spiking prices at highs just as the platform shut down, then, in the "darkness" a drop in both prices, due to a lack of corresponding prices, or, counterparty affirmation. The fragmentation in these markets points up the need for comparison pricing platforms to be in continuous operation, lest price discovery becomes a one-sided affair, which does not work for global pricing.

Lanci also pointed out that the Thanksgiving event should not have happened, relating that CME has built data centers with multiple levels of redundancy and fail-safes.

Elijah K. Johnson at Miles Franklin's Liberty and Finance interviewed analyst Mario Innecco, who pointed out various efforts in Dubai, India, South Korea and elsewhere to bring silver into the global monetary universe. Central banks have begun buying silver alongside gold. Innecco cites examples from November 1979 to January 1980 when silver tripled, and 2004-05 when silver experienced $5 gains in single sessions.

Innecco called the shutdown "suspicious," and thought that CME not having backups was "far-fetched", especially on a relatively quiet post-holiday trading session. He believes premiums will go higher on Monday and thereafter, advising small investors to focus on pre-1965 "junk" silver and American Silver Eagles (ASE). He also believes silver will provide more liquidity than gold in day-to-day transactions. He called the recent moves in silver "historic", citing the bimetallic period in the U.S. prior to 1873 and the fact that silver was used as money as lately as the 1960s.

Perhaps the most emotionally-charged and circumspect analysis was that of Daivd Morgan in his weekly Morgan Report, titled "Silver’s Breakout, CME’s Breakdown, and the Quiet Hands Behind the Curtain", which is featured below. Morgan described the outage as improbable, citing, as did Vince Lanci, the redundancy and fragility in and of CME's systems.

Morgan cited Nobody Special Finance and Bob Coleman as sources backing the rumor that none other than Paul Tudor Jones made multiple market moves in silver just prior to the CME shutdown and may have been instrumental in the events of Thanksgiving evening and Friday morning.

Morgan said the story is that "paper price discovery broke" and that silver is entering what he has long-called the "recognition phase, when the world finally realizes that the metal is industrial, indispensable, and monetarily irreplaceable." Nearing the end of his report, Morgan pointed out, "above all, understand, this is not a spike but a signal. You're watching the early stages of a historic transition, the slow, grinding collapse of paper promises and the rise of real assets that cannot be printed, erased or defaulted upon. Silver just sent its warning shot. Now the real game begins."

Mike Maloney of goldsilver.com does not believe that the shutdown was necessarily tied to silver in particular, but he doesn't rule it out, saying such speculation is reasonable considering the market conditions. In his video presentation, Maloney offers examples of posts on the social platform X, which point up what othe analysts have expressed, that regardless of the cause, the system broke.

William Middlekoop, who notably has signaled a global monetary reset is imminent, posted: "'A cooling issue' Translation: We need to cool off the silver market, reposition, to avoid silver exploding higher. Markets will re-open (gold and silver) when we know we can hammer prices lower..."

The X personality known as "Ben Rickert" (played by Brad Pitt in the film, "The Big Short") (@Ben_Rickert) was highlighted in Maloney's piece. Rickert's post included the ominous message: "Money is unraveling. Confidence is eroding. Price signals are returning. And silver - the underestimated monetary metal - is leading the revolt. The bull run didn't pause. The exchange did. And that tells you everything you need to know about where this cycle is going."

Due to temporal limitations - it's now 2:30 on Sunday afternoon - it would be impossible to cite all the experts, so Money Daily will hopefully be featuring opinions from the likes of Luke Gromen, Ronald Stoeferle, Andy Schectman, Andrew Maguire, Craig Hemke, and others as events unfold beginning Monday December 1.

Money Daily's take on the issue remains the same as when first reported Friday morning. The CME shutdown is part of a larger pattern that's been developing over decades. Ordinary Americans are relentlessly cheated, conned, swindled, hustled, and lied-to by the government and its vassals in the mainstream media because, in their simple minds, "they" know what's good for "us." Lately, the con game has gone deeper, with technology strings attached, from the LGBTQ gaslighting and Covid mandates from the Biden administration to Trump's campaign promises of the tariff golden age, ending the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, and releasing the Epstein files to the U.S. being the "hottest" country in the world, according to Trump.

Now, it's been ramped up to shutting down the government for 42 days, "losing" all the data for the October Non-farm payrolls and CPI, and delaying the release of 3rd quarter GDP figures until just before Christmas, so, it shouldn't surprise anybody when the CME goes dark, a story, by the way, that didn't even receive a headline on the Sunday talk shows. Not important, apparently.

The CME shutdown, whatever the cause, did show just how broken and untrustworthy the system has become. It's somewhat of a miracle that mail keeps being delivered. The government is bankrupt, $38 trillion in debt, China and Russia are running circles around Europe and America militarily, politically, economically, and socially. Anybody giving the government anything more than a casual shrug in anything they do or say is simply not reading the tea leaves correctly. The US government is nothing more than a massive skimming operation and the American citizens are the marks.

In specific terms as pertains to silver, the pricing on the evening of November 27 suggests that it was about to do with nickel did back in March, 2022. The March 2022 nickel spike was one of the most dramatic market events in modern commodity trading. Prices briefly soared above $100,000 per ton, forcing the London Metal Exchange (LME) to suspend trading and cancel billions of dollars’ worth of contracts. Between March 4–8, 2022, nickel prices on the LME nearly quadrupled in three trading days, rising from around $25,000/ton to over $100,000/ton, the proximate cause a short squeeze.

This could tie into the massive positions in options rumored to be the work of Paul Tudor Jones. Silver, which has been massively suppressed by the COMEX, LBMA, CME, and others, could have been spooked by huge contracts and options being placed, putting all the shorts and bullion banks at severe risk. It would explain the panic in terms of shutting down the market if silver was about to go parabolic. Consider that if silver merely tripled in price to $150 an ounce, the gold:silver ratio would still be 28, roughly double the historic level.

Back when gold first broke out in 1979-1980, above $800, silver pushed near $50 before the exchanges put the kibosh on both, by changing the rules, limiting silver trades to "sell only", which trapped the Hunt Brothers in their leveraged positions and made them the scapegoat for the collapse in gold and silver prices. Back then, between November, 1979 and February, 1980, the gold:silver ratio was in the teens, as in 15-19, closer to historic levels. If something like that, triggered by aggressive traders - not necessarily Paul Tudor Jones, but, traders in Singapore, Dubai, Shanghai, Moscow perhaps, was about to unfold, the CME, Globex, and COMEX would be sure to hit the panic button.

China and Russia have been well ahead of this trend. They've been stockpiling silver for years. Russia made it official policy in 2023.

The analysts are correct when they say the system broke down. When the truth is revealed - and it always is, eventually - it is likely that silver was about to spike to $100 an ounce all at once, wiping out the short, the specs, and maybe a couple of bullion banks with one swat. We will keep watching... and stacking.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	56.00	71.00	61.75	61.28
1 oz silver bar:	59.00	76.00	64.61	64.10
1 oz gold coin:	4,357.90	4,656.48	4,462.34	4,447.83
1 oz gold bar:	4,245.00	4,511.05	4,425.12	4,429.47

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) showed an incredible gain for the week, to $62.94, up $4.89 cents from the November 23 price of $58.05 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing.

WEEKEND WRAP

The markets are quiet, for now. Silver on Kitko is quoted at 56.33, +3.09 (+5.80%). That's a pretty big move. Monday will either be a day of reckoning for the CME and COMEX (which would be a liberating day for silver stackers), or more of what everybody's become used to over the past 40 years, more suppression in price. But, ebay prices tell a different story, as do dealers, who have one-ounce coins and bars priced from $58-$65 depending on quantity and payment method.

The silver breakout is real. The story behind the CME "blackout" is probably not.

At the Close, Friday, November 28, 2025:
Dow: 47,716.42, +289.30 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 23,365.69, +151.00 (+0.65%)
S&P 500: 6,849.09, +36.48 (+0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 21,824.67, +111.54 (+0.51%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1471.01 (+3.18%)
NASDAQ: +1092.61 (+4.91%)
S&P 500: +246.10 (+3.73%)
NYSE Composite: +647.69 (+3.06%)
Dow Transports: +571.91 (+3.57%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Orwellian Dysfunction as Government Hides Data, CME Outage Disrupts Trading Prior to Black Friday Open; Is India Pegging a 10: Gold:Silver Ratio?

Are we sensing a trend here?

A few weeks ago, the White House announced that data for October Non-farm Payrolls and CPI (implying PPI as well) was lost due to the government shutdown from October 1st through November 12.

On Monday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that they would not be releasing the advance estimate for third quarter GDP, and gave no timeline for when the report would be released.

For reference, GDP reports are usually released on the last Thursday of the three months following the end of a quarter. In this case, the initial estimate would have normally been released on October 30. Because of the shutdown, that released was skipped. Effectively, what was cancelled this week was the second estimate, which, because Thanksgiving was Thursday, would probably have been released today, Friday, November 28.

Today, the Wall Street Journal reports that the BEA will release the initial GDP estimate on December 23, just in time for Christmas. A delay of the third quarter GDP estimates is somewhat odd, given that the quarter ended on September 30, the day before the government shutdown. It all seems rather fishy, from the shutdown itself to the "lost" data, to delays in reporting important government findings.

These kinds of things happen in other countries, arguably in third world dictatorships, banana republics or communist regimes. The defunct USSR and, more recently, China, are famous for fabricating data. The current climate reeks of Orwellian doublespeak statements, like "chocolate rations have been increased from 10 grams to six."

Today's oddity comes from the CME Group, where options, gold, silver, and stock futures - among other derivative products - are traded regularly. Around 9:44 pm Thursday night, the platform went dark. Strangely enough, right at that time, silver was peaking above $54 an ounce and gold had jest beforehand been rising rapidly toward $4,200. Prices of the two prominent precious metals are the most severely suppressed of any commodity or product, the main conduit for manipulation being the CME, COMEX and GLOBEX platforms, though nobody would really imagine that the U.S. government would go to such extremes to keep the prices of real money under wraps and their precious fiat US$ afloat, would they?

Moments ago, as of this writing, the CME announced that their systems would return to normal operations at 8:30 am ET. as if by magic, NASDAQ futures popped up 83 points, Dow futures rose 80 points, and S&P futures gained 13.

So, never mind, we've (government moles) got this.

Something that came to the attention of Money Dialy was a report in the Jerusalem Post that the Royal Bank of India (RBI) had proposed new rules allowing silver to be employed as collateral for loans, alongside gold, which has for decades been a normal practice.

The intriguing message in the story was that India's regulators propose the new policy, which goes into effect in April 2026, sets collateral eligibility at 10 kilograms of silver versus 1 kilogram of gold, a de facto implied 10:1 silver:gold ratio.

Initially, our desk brushed the story off as fake news, as it was not reported anywhere else, though upon doing some sleuthing, it appears that the story is true. How deeply the collateral ratio in India will affect gold and silver prices remains obscure and yet to be seen. Currently, the gold:silver ratio has been upwards of 80:1, in the past year as high as 100:1. If the suggestion that silver should be valued at 1/10th the price of gold, it would be enormous news and shake markets globally.

Since historically, the gold:silver ratio has been anywhere from 8:1 to 20:1 it would mark a return to sanity in monetary matters, at least regarding real money: gold and silver.

One more thing: The atomic clock at Money Daily HQ, which receives its signal broadcast from station WWVB by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Fort Collins, Colorado, sometime last night or early this morning (we were sleeping off the Thanksgiving dinner) displaying the time eight hours ahead of the actual time. Odd.

Equity exchanges close at 1:00 pm today, so get your bets in early.

Happy Black Friday! Enjoy the show!

At the Close, Wednesday, November 26, 2025:
Dow: 47,427.12, +314.67 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 23,214.69 +189.10 (+0.82%)
S&P 500: 6,812.61, +46.73 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 21,713.13, +161.39 (+0.75%)

Trump's AI Genesis Mission, Pick for Next Fed Chair Gooses Wall Street Stocks Higher

Ok, hardly anybody paid much attention to Monday's launch of the "Genesis Mission" via an executive order by President Trump, except, um, Wall Street, apparently already in holiday trading mode.

President Trump's latest "mission" is all about the AI "race" against China, seeking to combine America's scientific knowledge into one, massive database, promoted by White House tech czar Michael Kratsios, who graduated from Princeton University with a B.A. in politics and a certificate in Hellenic studies in 2008, making him uniquely unqualified in technology, but that's OK since prior to joining the Trump administration as deputy assistant to the president, Kratsios was a principal at Thiel Capital and served as chief of staff to entrepreneur and venture capitalist Peter Thiel.

OK, the Peter Thiel connection led to Kratsios recently marrying a woman who was Public Policy Manager for Google UK and is now associated with Coinbase.

This new AI and Energy grift that is being managed by Trump, for those "behind the curtain" is already HUGE. Americans will pay for all of it and the tech oligarchs will get the profits along with all the infrastructure and info-tech built with American tax dollars.

According to this article from Venture Beat:

What the administration has not provided is just as striking: no public cost estimate, no explicit appropriation, and no breakdown of who will pay for what. Major news outlets including Reuters, Associated Press, Politico, and others have all noted that the order “does not specify new spending or a budget request,” or that funding will depend on future appropriations and previously passed legislation.

President Trump has unleashed the “Genesis Mission,” a Manhattan Project-scale AI blitz designed to cement U.S. technological dominance. Signed via an executive order Monday, the plan marshals the country’s largest federal data stores, supercomputers, and 40,000 elite scientists to accelerate breakthroughs in energy, health, and national security—while leaving global competitors in the dust. White House tech czar Michael Kratsios and Energy Secretary Chris Wright hailed it as America’s “Apollo-moment moonshot,” with Wright invoking wartime triumphs and likening the mission to the Manhattan Project that helped end WWII.

The executive order frames AI as the latest frontier for scientific discovery and economic growth, demanding a historic national effort to accelerate research and innovation. The Genesis Mission will create an integrated AI platform leveraging decades of federal scientific datasets to train foundation models, build AI research agents, automate workflows, and test new hypotheses at unprecedented speed.

It pulls together the full spectrum of American innovation: DOE national labs, pioneering private companies, world-renowned universities, production plants, and national security sites. The initiative promises to harness advances in high-performance computing and semiconductors, driving faster scientific discovery, enhanced productivity, energy security, and stronger national defense—all while delivering maximum taxpayer ROI.

Kratsios emphasized the scale of the effort, calling it “the largest marshaling of the federal government scientific apparatus since the Apollo Project,” and framing it as a historic surge in U.S. power. Trump’s Genesis blitz, combining federal resources with private-sector know-how, seeks to eclipse China’s AI advances, weaponize federal data lakes for breakthroughs, and secure unchallenged global dominance in science and technology.

For Americans watching the chaos online, the Genesis Mission is both awe-inspiring and terrifying—a full-throttle, no-holds-barred sprint into an AI-fueled future where the U.S. refuses to play catch-up, turning panic-scrolling doom into a spectator sport.

Fabulous.

Stocks powered ahead on Tuesday, and look to add to gains again on Wednesday, and, after the Thanksgiving break, again on the half-session Friday. Wall Street is not waiting for any results from AI or anywhere else, satisfied that more than a trillion dollars in AI investment will lead ot massive profits. At least that's the current understanding, along with the Fed making money easier by cutting the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting.

Traders are also jazzed about the prospects for Trump's pick to be the next Fed Chairman, ostensibly to cut interest rates even further. The leading candidate is the dovish Kevin Hassert.

While monetary and fiscal policies go into inflation overdrive, stocks will benefit, but gold and silver may skyrocket.

With US markets set to open within minutes, stock futures are higher across the board, along with gold and silver.

Away we go!

At the Close, Tuesday, November 25, 2025:
Dow: 47,112.45, +664.15 (+1.43%)
NASDAQ: 23,025.59, +153.59 (+0.67%)
S&P 500: 6,765.88, +60.76 (+0.91%)
NYSE Composite: 21,551.73, +280.13 (+1.32%)

Start Spending Americans! Are You Not Aware That the United States is the "Hottest" Country in the World? President Trump Said So

Just guessing, but Tuesday might be ripe for some profit taking. After last week's Thursday meltdown, stocks have rallied on renewed prospects for a FOMC rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting. While that's jolly good for Wall Street, it sounds just a bit inflationary for the rest of us regular folks. Heck, even bitcoin is "off the lows", which, for CNBC enthusiasts, is cause for celebration.

Nonetheless, President Trump says America is the "hottest" country on the planet, which has worried some of the leftover climate change complainers. Still, he's probably right about America being hot, because, if you touch it, you're likely to get burned.

From the "can't make this stuff up" department (courtesy of trusted news source, Yahoo! Finance):

US retail sales rose less than forecast in September as key data returns after shutdown delays

US retail sales slowed in September as investors got the first official glimpse of consumer spending in two months on Tuesday morning after the government shutdown halted a wide swath of economic data.

Headline retail sales climbed 0.2% in September, below economists' expectations of a 0.4% month-over-month increase. By comparison, sales rose 0.6% in August, according to Census Bureau data.

The control group, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, decreased 0.1% following a 0.6% gain in August. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% rise.

Sales excluding autos rose 0.3% from August to September, while sales excluding autos and gas increased 0.1%.

The report arrives at the start of a crucial holiday shopping season and carries added weight as investors and policymakers continue to operate without an official read on third-quarter GDP, even with the shutdown now over.

On Monday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced it has canceled the advance Q3 GDP estimate and will reschedule both the second estimate and preliminary corporate profits, which were slated for release on Nov. 26.

So, this translates thusly: Many people are broke. They were broke in September and more broke in October (if that's even possible), so we, the government, who can't accept failure, aren't going to release October data. If we eventually do, it will be 100% fake.

Third quarter GDP was so bad, we shut down the government just so we wouldn't have to tell anybody. We, the government, want to keep all you peons, muppets, and cretins in the dark, while we, the enlightened class, profits. Conveniently, we will not release third quarter GDP estimate - which we have, by the way, because the third quarter ended in September - until after Christmas. So, go out and shop, spend up to your credit card limits on worthless trash to impress people you don't like. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Happy Holidays.

Signs that there's a bubble and a recession will soon follow:

One of your neighbors drives a more expensive car than you, even though he/she doesn't have a job. Your car is paid for; his/hers is on credit. Keep eyes peeled for repo man.

You tried out AI, were not overly impressed with the results, and thought, "they're spending how many hundreds of billions on this?"

One bitcoin is worth more than what you paid for your first home back in 1985.

Two strip steaks at the local supermarket cost $38.50.

The Starbucks near your office is empty.

There's more, but we're not allowed to tell you how bad it really is, but here's a hint: 50% of retail sales is being done by the top 10% of earners.

Only one more day until Thanksgiving (whew! a day off) and then the massive half-day rally for Black Friday!

Spend!

At the close, Monday, November 24, 2025:
Dow: 46,448.27, +202.86 (+0.44%)
NASDAQ: 22,872.01, +598.92 (+2.69%)
S&P 500: 6,705.12, +102.13 (+1.55%)
NYSE Composite: 21,271.60, +94.62 (+0.45%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Circus and Clown Show Continues; Price Suppression, Fake Money, and Holiday Goodness

Look at it this way. Wall Street is a big circus, full of high-wire acts, dancing elephants, lion tamers, and trampoline gymnasts with a casino attached. Washington, D.C. is the clown show, led by the carnival barker on truth social.

On Wall Street, you buy your tickets, cotton candy, popcorn, and the rest. Washington doesn't move Wall Street. It's exactly the other way around. All the best grifters in the world are located in the capital. The real money is made behind the scenes, in back offices within skyscrapers and low-rise buildings in lower Manhattan and New Jersey.

In just the last two days of trading last week - Thursday and Friday - was witness to the complete fraud of AI investments (Thursday) and the comic cosmic power of the central bank (Friday), when New York Fed President John Williams, who was attending a conference sponsored by the central bank of Chile (really, Chile?) casually mentioned that interest rates could fall in the near term.

This wasn't an official speech by Williams, who just so happens to be a permanent voter and Vice Chairman of the FOMC, the committee that sets interest rate policy at the Fed. His remarks carried sufficient weight to boost markets on Friday, a counterweight to Thursday's massive selloff.

In Washington, Republican House member from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Greene, a longtime Trump and MAGA supporter, abruptly resigned her seat after weeks of disagreements with President Trump.

In the dysfunction that is the U.S. federal government, political alliances are disregarded. Elected officials who stand up for Americans and against foreign entanglements are disposed of or "primaried." Those who support foreign governments and enthusiastically applaud leaders who commit crimes and genocide are elevated. That's just how the irrelevant clown show rolls.

Here's a link to her video statement and resignation announcement. The video is posted at the conclusion of the WEEKEND WRAP.

Stocks

Even with Friday's Fed-induced dead cat bounce, stocks were hit hard again this week, marking the third straight weekly decline on the NASDAQ, home to most of the speculative tech names.

Markets have been under siege since the government re-opened, and while that is probably merely coincidence, the effects are beginning to strike home. Just since November 12, the Dow has dropped 2,000 points, about four percent. The S&P is off nearly 300 points from its all-time high on October 29, and the NASDAQ is off by more than 1700 points since the end of October, a full seven percent decline.

With the holidays approaching, there's a split of opinion on whether stocks will regain the high ground or continue to fall for the remainder of the year. Increasingly, it appears to be the latter. Liquidity and the AI circular trading scheme continue to be the main issues in the market. The AI trade may have seen its top after Nvidia's results, under scrutiny, caused Thursday's massive decline. While there was some dip-buying on Friday, it was largely without conviction, and also came on the third Friday of the month, usually the largest options expiration date. Thus, whatever gains were made in the big tech names were probably the results of various options trades being closed out.

There doesn't seem to be a catalyst going forward, though the general mood of the markets during the holidays is upbeat, although that certainly wasn't the case in 2018, and similar issues could cause another waterfall event, as opposed to a Santa laus rally. Of course, there is the FOMC meeting on December 9-10 to consider. After Williams' suggestion the odds of another 25 basis point cut in December rose from around 33% to over 60%. If the Fed does not cut, markets will likely tank. There's always a way out for Wall Street, however. In this instance, howls of "oversold conditions" will be loud.

Prior to that, on Wednesday of next week, the PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge will be announced, which will have influence regarding inflation in the context of rate cuts.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70
11/07/2025	4.01	3.96	3.98	3.92	3.83	3.76	3.63
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67
11/07/2025	3.55	3.57	3.67	3.87	4.11	4.68	4.70
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71

Spreads remain wide. Fed speakers are about to go into "quiet mode" prior to the next FOMC meeting, so there will be slight chance that they'll be leaking anything important. Otherwise, the treasury market is functioning, though there is crowding due to excessive issuance by the U.S. Treasury, with more than $1 trillion in refunding ongoing.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $57.98, down sharply from last week's close of $59.81. The price of oil should continue to fall. There's slack demand and a huge glut, despite the "sanctions" on Russia, which do next-to-nothing.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained the same for now three straight weeks, $3.07, according to Gasbuddy.com. Gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and through winter.

California remains the priciest, at $4.60 per gallon, down six cents, followed by Washington ($4.17), up a penny on the week. Oregon ($3.77), was up four cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma checking in near the lowest price in about a year, $2.46. Mississippi is next at $2.53. Louisiana ($2.55), Tennessee ($2.60) and Texas ($2.63) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.80 with the exception of Florida ($3.11) up 20 cents from last week.

In the Northeast, prices were higher. Only New Hampshire ($2.94) was under $3.00, with Pennsylvania ($3.28) easily the highest. Vermont ($3.15) and New York ($3.14) were the next.

In the midwest region, Illinois ($3.24) and Michigan ($3.12) were the only states above $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.61) and Kansas ($2.67).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 28 states, a gain of two from last week.

Bitcoin

This week: $87,373.34
Last week: $95,387.89
2 weeks ago: $103,678.70
6 months ago: $108,333.40
One year ago: $97,811.99
Five years ago: $17,734.38

Bitcoin fell to a low below $81,000 this week. The gains through Sunday morning is nothing but froth, occurring in thinly-traded hours, similar to how the gold and silver suppressors operate in the GLOBEX between midnight and early morning hours. There's really nothing there at all. Most people who bought bitcoin in the past year are losing money.

Nakamoto in Japanese means "Central" or middle. Satoshi in Japanese means "Intelligence" or wise. Draw your own conclusions.

Bitcoin and crypto is dead money at this point. Thank Wall Street for that.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 81.33; last week: 80.79

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40
Gold price 11/7: $4,007.80
Gold price 11/14: $4,084.40
Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20

Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25
Silver price 11/7: $48.22
Silver price 11/14: $50.40
Silver price 11/21: $50.33

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10
Gold 11/7: $3999.89
Gold 11/14: $4,080.00
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98

Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65
Silver 11/7: $48.33
Silver 11/14: $50.50
Silver 11/21: $49.97

Gold and silver were generally rangebound throughout the week. The ongoing struggle for price discovery continues between the futures and fix pricing mechanism of the Western COMEX and LBMA and the BRICS-focused Shanghai Gold Exchange in China and Russia's plans to begin trading in precious metals by the end of the year on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX), which will be open to traders from around the world.

Cracks in the Western-dominated markets have begun to show signs of cracking, with the recent shortfall of silver in London vaults and the impressive gains in both gold and silver over the past two years. Additionally, dealers continue to add high premia to precious metals. A recent offering by one prominent online dealer promoted one ounce silver at $7.95 over spot, pretty much aligning with Money Daily's SOSMBP.

There may be some impetus for gold and silver to rise this coming week, as nearby futures contracts expire.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	54.00	65.00	57.85	57.00
1 oz silver bar:	51.00	64.95	58.33	59.01
1 oz gold coin:	4,206.00	4,481.95	4,303.16	4,287.24
1 oz gold bar:	4,232.64	4,380.84	4,291.48	4,281.10

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) made a modest gain for the week, to $58.05, up 51 cents from the November 16 price of $57.54 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to, and depart from, spot and derivative markets.

WEEKEND WRAP

Next week is Thanksgiving and Black Friday, a half-day session which almost always is positive. This year should be no different. If you're looking for holiday cash, buy on Wednesday, sell on Friday, as that shortened session will be the last of November, so, in keeping with the holiday spirit, there is likely to be plenty of window dressing. The stock markets close at 1:00 pm ET, so don't sleep too late.

At the CLose, Friday, November 21, 2025:
Dow: 46,245.41, +493.15 (+1.08%)
NASDAQ: 22,273.08, +195.03 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 6,602.99, +64.23 (+0.98%)
NYSE Composite: 21,176.98, +264.10 (+1.26%)

For the Week:
Dow: -902.07 (-1.91%)
NASDAQ: -627.51 (-2.74%)
S&P 500: -131.12 (-1.95%)
NYSE Composite: -293.28 (-1.37%)
Dow Transports: -58.66 (-0.36%)

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