WEEKEND WRAP: $100 Silver in Shanghai and on Ebay; Trump Heads to Davos as Venezuela Gambit Falters; Stocks Flat, Gold, Bitcoin Bond Yields Higher

There's far too much financial commentary these days, much of it misleading, most of it designed to sell people things they don't need, like tiny shares of massive publicly-held corporations or worse, insurance, a bane on humanity propagated by the same banking interests who rule the world with fiat currencies and fractional reserve banking. Money Daily will strive to be brief this weekend, if only to relieve some of the indigestible bubble narratives.

Some narrative-building will be undertaken by the Boaster-in-Chief, President Trump, who will be addressing his billionaire buddies in Davos, Switzerland at the annual World Economic Forum. When Trump first campaigned for president and won in 2016, he was kind of an outsider to the Davos crowd. Now, he is one of them, which helps explain the big differences in his policies from then to now.

In the meantime, silver rallied 10% on the week and was quoted above $100 in Shanghai. More below.

Stocks

The week just ended wasn't very healthy for stocks. The major indices were all lower, albeit by less than a half percent with a completely dead session Friday. Only the NYSE Composite and Dow Transports finished the week in positive territory. It's understandable that small caps would fare better in the current environment. Some of them are only ones not already at nosebleed levels. As the economic cycle rolls over, innovative, more nimble outfits may be able to seize upon opportunities to introduce new products or grab market share.

Monday is Martin Luther King Day, so equity markets are closed.

Economic data drops are few this week, including PCE inflation data for October and November to be released on Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, so it will be closely watched. Also on Thursday, the final reading for third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 are announced before the opening bell. Prior to that, Construction Spending for September and October and Pending home sales for December come out on Wednesday.

Here are some of the companies reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings in the week ahead:

Tuesday: (before open) 3M (MMM), Fastenal (FAST), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), DR Borton (DHI), US Bancorp (USB), Key Bank (KEY); (after close) United Airlines (UAL), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

Wednesday: (before open) Ally (ALLY), Vitizens Financial (CFG), Yravelers (TRV), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)

Thursday: (before open) Huntington Bank (HBAN), Proctor & Gamble (PG), GE Aerospace (GE), Abbott Labs (ABT), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), McCormick (MKC), NovaGold (NG); (after close) Alcoa (AA), CapitalOne (COF), Intel (INTC), Intuitive Surgical (INTC), CSX (CXS)

Friday: (before open) Ericsson (ERIC), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Comerica (CMA)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
12/12/2025	3.76	3.75	3.75	3.63	3.64	3.58	3.54
12/19/2025	3.71	3.71	3.72	3.62	3.64	3.60	3.51
12/26/2025	3.70	3.69	3.72	3.64	3.66	3.58	3.49
01/02/2026	3.72	3.71	3.66	3.65	3.62	3.58	3.47
01/09/2026	3.70	3.68	3.63	3.62	3.62	3.57	3.52
01/16/2026	3.75	3.72	3.68	3.67	3.66	3.60	3.55

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
12/12/2025	3.52	3.58	3.75	3.95	4.19	4.82	4.85
12/19/2025	3.48	3.53	3.70	3.91	4.16	4.77	4.82
12/26/2025	3.46	3.54	3.68	3.89	4.14	4.76	4.81
01/02/2026	3.47	3.55	3.74	3.95	4.19	4.81	4.86
01/09/2026	3.54	3.59	3.75	3.95	4.18	4.76	4.82
01/16/2026	3.59	3.67	3.82	4.02	4.24	4.79	4.83

Markets are calling the Fed's bluff on lowering rates. Yield on the five-year note is the highest since November 17, 2025 (3.60%), and the 10-year is yielding the most since September 2nd (4.28%) while the 30-year bond remains elevated since a low on 10/16/25 (4.58%), continuing to nudge closer to 5.00%. The direction this week had much to do about the CPI, but more so, the PPI, which showed inflation in the pipeline via producer prices.

If the Fed were inclined to reverse course and actually perform a prudent function for markets by raising the federal funds target rate, bond buyers might show more interest (no pun intended). Adding to the bond market's bouts of indigestion are President Trump's blathering over global issues, his desire to own a large chunk of ice (Greenland) and continued piracy on the high seas. If the U.S. government maintains a policy of running afoul of the rule of law, foreign bond purchasers will make issuers pay a hefty price, demanding higher yields in a shaky environment.

Spreads on 2s-10s remained elevated at +65, while full spectrum moderated slightly, down four basis points to +108, though still at extreme levels, indicating stress in fixed income markets. Conditions for erratic dislocations and dysfunctions in the treasury complex are high, and, unless the militarist rhetoric is tamped down in Washington, D.C., investors are likely to take further flight from bonds toward precious metals and other hard assets.

According to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, there’s a 95% consensus that the FOMC will keep the federal funds target rate stable, at 3.50-3.75% at its next meeting, January 27-28).

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $59.22, just slightly higher than last week's close of $58.62. The Venezuela effect continues to wane. Oil execs have expressed little interest. Rebuilding the existing production infrastructure is, at best, a five to ten year project. Trump's bold move to capture the country’s resources may turn out to be one of the major strategic blunders of his administration. It's too early to tell, but, so far, it's not going well.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped another two cents, to $2.76, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering Venezuela and the continued global glut. Pax Americana, or the so-called Donroe Doctrine is going to be a long haul. America's resources are already stretched thin and South American countries aren't keen on American interventionism given China has already established significant inroads in places like Peru, Bolivia, to say nothing of tight ties with Brazil via BRICS. The U.S. will get some of what it wants and needs from the Southern Hemisphere, but it has given China a significant head start and whatever extractions the U.S. can make will be expensive.

The average price for a gallon of unleaded regular 10% ethanol gasoline in the U.S. rose four cents, to $2.80, though that figure is close to multi-year lows.

California remained at $4.19 per gallon, the highest in the nation, though that figure is down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.77) was lower by a penny over the week, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.28), fell another two cents. Arizona checked in at $2.94, another multi-year low. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, though Oklahoma, the low-price leaders, was up 12 cents to $2.29, The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina west to New Mexico, are all below $2.68, except Florida ($2.77).

In the Northeast, prices were steady and consistent. Only Vermont ($3.00) and Pennsylvania ($3.02) are at or above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.96.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Michigan took the lead over Illinois as te highest, at $2.96. Wyoming was the lowest ($2.40).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 45 states, three more than last week, leaving only Califronia, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Vermont at $3.00 or above.

Bitcoin

This week: $95,065.81
Last week: $90,633.20
2 weeks ago: $91,306.05
6 months ago: $118,353.30
One year ago: $102,194.90
Five years ago: $34,293.20

Bitcoin and the larger crypto-universe got a boost this week, with the Senate moving ahead on the CLARITY Act, which would provide a framework for bitcoin, altcoins, tokens, stablecoins, blah, blah, blah, as if what the world wanted to go along with its vacuous, unbacked, invisible electronic currency is a host of regulations, taxes, tracking directives and various other rules and oversight provisions. Notably, Coinbase, one of the largest exchanges, withdrew support for the legislation late in the week after viewing the Senate's revised draft legislation and now the White House is considering pulling its support.

The main issue revolves around the ability of tokens to offer interest-bearing options on stablecoins in particular, allowing competition with regular U.S. banks. While that is a considerable stretch - getting interest on a currency backed by nothing - it is precisely what banks have been doing with U.S. Federal Reserve Notes for the past 112 years. Why the White House may pull its backing for the legislation is simple: there isn't enough leverage to skim from the rubes.

Another snag in the plan for you to "own nothing and be happy" has emerged just in time for the Davos WEF. Just because the majority of people in this world don't fully grasp economics, doesn't necessarily give the oligarchs and banking titans to screw them over constantly. There are solutions. See directly below.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 51.09; last week: 56.82

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70
Gold price 12/28: $4,562.00
Gold price 1/2: $4,341,90
Gold price 1/9: $4,518.40
Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10

Silver price 12/19: $67.39
Silver price 12/28: $79.68
Silver price 1/2: $72.26
Silver price 1/9: $79.79
Silver price 1/16: $89.94

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83
Gold 12/26: $4,533.00
Gold 1/2: $4,331.09
Gold 1/9: $4,508.08
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42

Silver 12/19: $67.21
Silver 12/26: $79.27
Silver 1/2: $72.25
Silver 1/9: $79.34
Silver 1/16: $89.94

Silver was up $9.99, or 12.49%, for the week. Gold gained $84.81 (+1.88%). The continuing gains come against a backdrop of three consecutive margin hikes in the past month by the CME and heavy negative propaganda about the Bloomberg Commodities Index Rebalancing, which was supposed to force selling in silver and gold and crush the rally in precious metals.

Didn't happen. In fact, silver had one of its best weeks ever and will head higher, probably much higher, as countries scramble to secure mine output from around the world. What's most interesting and probably overlooked by Western analysts (who, BTW, mostly have their heads deeply up their behinds) is the fierce competition in Asia, particularly between China and India, both of which seek copious amounts of silver for not just solar and EV production, but as investment and jewelry. The Lunar New Year (China) is a month off (February 17). The leadup to that event is usually a strong buying season for gold and silver to be given as gifts, adding to the allure of more rapid, explosive gains in precious metals.

For those not familiar with the ins-and-outs of precious metals, Money Daily strongly advises regular viewing of Live from the Vault, which features Andrew Maguire, one of the industry's top analysts and precious metals trader. The current episode is quite insightful regarding silver and also includes Maguire's price predictions for gold and silver in 2026.

Both metals should continue to rally through 2026 and probably beyond, until something serious breaks, like the global economy.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	89.75	109.27	100.43	99.96
1 oz silver bar:	95.00	108.88	102.15	101.25
1 oz gold coin:	4,667.68	4,942.17	4,827.69	4,807.21
1 oz gold bar:	4,767.62	4,915.00	4,812.34	4,805.57

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) exploded higher over the past week, to $100.95, an unprecedented gain of $13.45 from the January 11 price of $87.54 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and growing retail investment demand in smaller, finished products, from grams to 1/2-ounce, 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce coins and bars.

WEEKEND WRAP

Nothing beat silver last year and it's already zoomed to the front of all asset classes in 2026. Over the past year, silver experienced a gain of 180% and is already up 25% in 2026. Considering that the move over the past year was just the beginning of shaking off 55 years of price suppression and 150+ years of purposeful demonetization, price appreciation over the next two to four years may be nothing short of spectacular. With $100 silver already appearing in Shanghai and on eBay, the next move higher - even if silver only gains 40% in 2026 - will be $140. Some of the brightest analysts see a price between $140 and $160 as just the next level higher, as silver becomes relevant as an investment asset, beyond its multiple purposes in industry.

At the Close, Friday, January 16, 2026:
Dow: 49,359.33, -83.11 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 23,515.39, -14.63 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 6,940.01, -4.46 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 22,807.06, -1.75 (-0.01%)

For the Week:
Dow: -144.74 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -155.96 (0.66%)
S&P 500: -26.27 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: +215.33 (+0.95%)
Dow Transports: +60.80 (+0.33%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Volatile Week for Stocks, Precious Metals, Oil as Trump Backs Off Iran Rhetoric; Silver Slammed in NY, Though Over $100 per Ounce in Shanghai

It's been an up-and-down week for stocks. Overall, markets are looking to head into the three-day weekend (MLK Day Monday, January 19) not very far from where they began, though with a lsight lean to the downside.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow is off 61 points, the NASDAQ is down 141, and the S&P down 21 and change.

Precious metals have had another solid week, though New York traders are looking to tamp down some of the gains.

Gold was up $109 at the close of trading on Thursday, at $4619.76, but is down slightly, at $4600 just before 9:00 am ET. Similarly, silver finished up $12.78, at $92.73 Thursday, but is being treated to its regular weekly COMEX spanking prior to Friday's U.S. stock market open, at $88.54. Silver has been whipsawed back and forth between competing markets in New York, London, and Shanghai, the latter vaulting past $100/ounce Thursday.

In terms of overall health, global equity markets continue to show considerable froth in the face of uncertain geopolitical and economic stresses.

Before the open Thursday, Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported fourth quarter earnings that beat estimates and the company guided higher, sparking a nice bump to $350 before settling back to close at $341.64. The world's largest chip manufacturer is up nearly seven percent on the week, helping tech gains on Thursday.

Banks, despite spotty results, have shown strength late in the week, but overall, don't appear to be the strongest cards in the deck. Despite weakness this week, January is off to a fair start for stocks, with the Dow leading, up nearly three percent, while the NASDAQ and S&P follow, though only ahead by 1.24% and 1.48%, respectively.

Bitcoin has regained some momentum, up more than nine percent year-to-date, at $95,468.72 Friday morning.

Stock futures are positive, led by NASDAQ, up 125 a half hour before the bell.

WTI crude oil continues to hold gains near $60/barrel. The volatility in oil had much to do with President Trump's saber-rattling at Iran, though as Iran's protests were finally quelled midweek, the rhetoric changed to a more conciliatory tone. Word has it that Russian President Putin advised the Iranian leadership to tone down in terms of punishing protesters - many of which were suspected Mossad and CIA plants - with executions.

Stocks, which remain near all-time highs, have some work to do if they plan on finishing the week higher, especially in the tech sector.

At the Close, Thursday, January 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,442.44, +292.81 (+0.60%)
NASDAQ: 23,530.02, +58.27 (+0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,944.47, +17.87 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 22,808.81, +87.59 (+0.39%)

Banks Not Making Big Enough Profits, Goldman Sachs the Latest; America's Future Doesn't Seem Very Bright

There's something wrong with this picture.

Banks are borrowing at anywhere from 0.50% to 3.75%, charging interest on credit card loans at rates between 15% and 35%, but they're having a hard time improving profits.

On Tuesday, it was JP Morgan Chase getting whacked after releasing fourth quarter 2025 earnings with a big miss in EPS. The stock is down more than six percent on the week. Wednesday the terrific trio of Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) released their earnings numbers and Wall Street sent them down 3.34%, 3.78%, and 4.61%, respectively.

This morning, Thursday, it's Goldman Sachs (GS) getting the cold shoulder after missing revenue estimates and taking a $2.26 billion loss on their former holding of the Apple Card portfolio which they sold to JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Goldman Sachs is down two percent pre-market with further markdowns sure to come during the cash session. Undeterred, Goldman lowered their provision for credit losses (adding to their bottom line) by $2.48 billion. JP Morgan added to theirs by roughly the same amount. Those Apple Card users must not be using enough AI, apparently. Their portfolio is a mess.

Banks not improving their profitability when money is loose and getting looser, the GDP is supposedly running red hot at about four percent, and inflation, according to the most expert opinions, is grinding lower doesn't quite add up. These financial wizards should be absolutely raking it in and they're not.

Maybe, just maybe, they know something the general public doesn't. Like bankruptcies are rising, consumer loans and credit cards are defaulting at alarming rates, and kidnapping heads of state isn't exactly stable foreign policy. The mainstream media complex won't tell the public what's really happening and the government is almost certainly cooking the books. Massive fraud is uncovered and yet, nobody goes to jail. At the same time, gold and silver are sending an alternative message about the stability of the US$ and the Western global financial system. Truth is, BRICS and most of what's become known as the "Global South" are shunning use of the dollar, trading amongst themselves and resetting the prices for not just precious metals, but commodities in general.

The United States, which once was a bastion of free speech, rugged individualism, and a strong middle class, has, mostly over the past 20 years, been downgraded to an enormous socialist/fascist third world state with a centrally-planned economy that is $38 trillion in debt, run by oligarchs and mega-corporations that likes to use its military to steal natural resources and other treasures from smaller countries. This is a far cry from the 1950s and 60s, when the United States was the wealthiest country in the world and a single earner with a wife two kids and maybe some pets could afford a decent house, annual vacations, and all the elements of a prospering middle class. That's all gone. Two incomes are now required for home ownership, and only if the combined income is upwards of $150,000. Even then it's a stretch. Vacations, Saturday night steaks on the grill, and other niceties are now considered luxuries. Most of the citizens can barely afford rent and food.

Yes, America is kinda going backwards. You can thank the last eight or 12 presidents and the congress that still hasn't figured out how to actually prepare a budget and stick to it. Removing the dollar redemption for gold, finally defaulted in 1971, played a huge rule.

Something's going to break.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 14, 2026:
Dow: 49,149.63, -42.36 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,471.75, -238.12 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 6,926.60, -37.14 (-0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 22,721.23, +65.78 (+0.29%)

Wealth Effect, Inflation, and Precious Metals; A Massive Change in Wealth Distribution Is Underway: Wells Fargo, BofA May Be OK; Citi Not Pretty

In January, 2025, the price of silver on the spot market was somewhere between $28 and $32 per troy ounce. A year later, for all intents and purposes, that price has tripled.

Thank about that for a moment. A 200% gain in just one year. A triple.

Now, think about individual people - hundreds of millions of them from America to Europe to China and India and all places in between - that own silver in the form of bars, coins, trinkets, and jewelry. Their net worth has seen a massive increase, depending on how much silver they hold.

Americans, probably the dumbest people on the planet, have been selling their silver and their gold as prices have rocketed higher. Imagine those who sold at $50 an ounce, probably got $45 or thereabouts from their coin dealer, and are now kicking themselves for selling too soon, believing that the COMEX, LBMA, CME, and the usual horde of speculators and bullion banks that have been short silver for decades, would perform their usual magic and send the price screaming back down into the 30s or 20s.

They were wrong. Dead wrong. The Comex has been effectively neutered by industrial buyers and U.S. bullion banks who switched from short to long around and after September of 2025.

Now, those 100s of millions of people in China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and elsewhere across Asia and Africa who held their silver, knowing from experience that it has value as money, plain and simple, they're feeling much more well off than they were a year ago. In some of these countries that regard gold and silver in high esteem, many households probably have 100 ounces of silver or more. What was $2,500 in January of last year is now $7,500 presently (as measured in their currencies of course), and prospects for further gains are not just good, they are very, very good.

What has happened over the past year is nothing short of a massive shift in wealth, changing course from the haves to the have-nots, a dynamic reversal of the top 10% reaping all the gains, mostly in stocks, while the lower 90% tried to keep up. The rest of the world, outside the West, is very different in their approach to just about everything, and, in the case of gold and silver, their age-old reverence from precious metals is paying off in many ways.

Just think about 100 to 500-ounces of silver in 200 million or more Asian and African households - not all of them, mind you, but enough to make a huge difference - that are reaping the rewards of simply saving in silver and gold as protection from inflation and calamaties in fiat currencies. They are not only feeling what former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke termed the "wealth effect", they are experiencing it in real, tangible ways.

One example of how silver will be changing lives is in India, which, back in October issued formal requirements of banks and other financial institutions to lend to individuals and small merchants using silver as collateral. All are supposed to be in compliance by April 1, 2026, but many already are. Indians, mostly rural farmers and businesspeople, are being lifted out of poverty every day now in the world's most populous country and the use of silver as collateral or just plain old money is spreading like wildfire across the globe.

Back in the world of stocks, the Dow took a heavy blow on Tuesday, mostly in response to JP Morgan's (JPM) rare earnings shortfall. Today it's Citigroup that is soon to be feeling the pain, having missed top and bottom line this morning with their 4th quarter earnings report. Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) also reported this AM and are both being sold off 1.5-2.5%, despite earnings that were pretty much in line with expectations, indicating that something larger is spooking the market.

Perhaps it has something to do with the Producer Price Index for December, which, earlier this morning was reported thusly:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged up 0.1 percent in October and advanced 0.6 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

The November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.2 percent in November after moving up 0.7 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 3.5 percent, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.5 percent in March.

Stock futures are lower across the board. Gold, silver, and oil are positive.

Inflation is in the pipeline and the president wants to annex Greenland and lower interest rates.

Any idea how insane all of that sounds?

At the Close, Tuesday, January 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,191.99, -398.21 (-0.80%)
NASDAQ: 23,709.87, -24.03 (-0.10%)
S&P 500: 6,963.74, -13.53 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,655.44, -40.49 (-0.18%
)

JP Morgan (JPM) Misses Bottom Line, EPS of $4.63 Well Below Estimates, -8.7% from 3rd Quarter, -3.7% Y-O-Y; Trump Targeting Iran Again

The first big fourth quarter earnings release was forwarded Tuesday morning by the largest bank in the U.S. by assets, JP Morgan Chase (JPM).

The company reported diluted earnings per share of $4.63, compared to $5.07 in the third quarter and $4.81 in the same period a year ago. From a bottom line perspective, it's clear that business is going in reverse at the venerable ship of state with the "fortress balance sheet." EPS estimates were largely in a range of $4.90-5.00. This constitutes a very big miss and a sets a poor tone for earnings season, just now beginning.

Further on, as one delves deeper into the company’s numbers, the declines in gross and net income indicate a severe decline that cannot be attributed to the 43-day government shutdown from October 1 into November, but to underlying factors stemming primarily from consumer spending trends.

The company breaks down their results into sections, though it is within Consumer & Community Banking (CCB) that most of the financial damage can be seen. Net income was $3.6 billion, down 9% from the fourth quarter of 2024, and down 27% from the prior quarter.

Company-wide, provision for credit losses was $4.7 billion. Net charge-offs were $2.5 billion, up $150 million, predominantly driven by Wholesale. The net reserve build was $2.1 billion, reflecting a $2.2 billion reserve established for the forward purchase commitment of the Apple credit card portfolio. In the prior year, the provision was $2.6 billion, net charge-offs were $2.4 billion and the net reserve build was $267 million.

Net revenue of $46,767 billion, was down from $47,120 billion in the third quarter, but up 7% from $43,738 billion in the 2024 fourth quarter, rouhgly in-line with inflation, which means the company was mostly treading water for all of 2025. They are losing share and money is fleeing from their credit card business, just as they take on the Apple Card portfolio, taken over from management by Goldman Sachs. The $2.2 billion reserve established just for that portfolio is stunning, given that Apple customers are widely regarded to be fiscally prudent. The fact that Goldman sought to unload the unit is indicating the opposite. Expect more write-downs when JPM issues first quarter results in April.

JP Morgan's results reflect similarities in other U.S. large-cap companies, which, while they routinely beat estimates, they fall short on either y-o-y or prior quarter earnings, the straightaway implication that the business is, not growing, but rather, contracting. Nonetheless, stocks continue to rise. The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) finished Monday at 41.01, a new interim high, second only to the record 44.19 of December 1999, just prior to the dotcom bust.

On Monday, stocks took the usual path of least resistance, starting lower and ending higher. The Dow Jones Industrials erased an opening loss of more than 400 points to close 89 higher. The S&P and NASDAQ followed similar paths, though overall, trading was muted.

One might reasonably expect a wave of tax-related selling in profitable names, given that any gains taken now won't need to be reported until April 2027, generating a very solid free cash flow. If markets sense weakness, tax-related selling will likely exacerbate losses. JPM's benchmark report is not setting a very bullish precedent.

Gold and silver started off the week with a bang, both at record highs. Gold closed out Monday at $4585.89; silver finished at $83.94 an ounce. Both are ripping higher in the aftermath of the CPI release. Gold, $4609.00; Silver, $87.57.

The BLS released a statement at 8:30 am ET:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

On that release, stock futures initially spiked higher off earlier lows, but are quickly retreating as the opening bell approaches.

Things might get a bit dicey today and for the rest of the week and earnings season, especially, in addition to somewhat dour economic tones, President Trump is amping up aggression aimed at Iran. His continued semi-psychotic actions adding to the uncertainty and unease.

At the Close, Monday, January 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,590.20, +86.10 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 23,733.90, +62.60 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,977.27, +10.99 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,695.93, +104.23 (+0.46%)