Anybody seeking to formulate a coherent investing profile for 2016 is facing an uphill battle. There are so many variables to consider that affect different sectors in different ways that allocation of capital becomes a monumental consideration. Available options range from wide diversification into various asset classes to smaller positions and an emphasis on cash, in order to take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves as events unfold. There is also an argument in favor of staying put, keeping one's portfolio exactly as it is until the first or second week of February after most of the major companies have presented fourth quarter and full year earnings, the first FOMC meeting of 2026, and the first estimate of fourth quarter 2025 GDP.
To get an idea of what is guiding Wall Street and other private analysts, here is a brief look at some of the larger issues, many of which overlap:
President Trump: Judging by the proposals and actions taken in the first year of his second presidency, there appears to be little long-term planning in this administration. Closing the southern border to illegal immigrants has been the one major positive development. Deportations appear to be focused on criminal elements rather than the mass outflow promised during the election campaign. ICE faces protests and a public relations nightmare everywhere it attempts enforcement.
Tariffs have so far resulted in marginal additional revenues to the government. In 2025, estimates range from $261 billion to $331 billion were collected, essentially from April through December, 9 months. That doesn't amount to much in terms of the $6.8 in spending for fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026) and a $2 trillion deficit. Whatever the tariff revenue will be for the full fiscal year, it is unlikely to be more than $35 billion a month, or $410 billion for the 12 months, which would cover about six percent of government outlays. Thus, tariffs are not a panacea.
The Venezuelan escapade of recent fame appears to be a long shot in terms of the U.S. extracting oil and profiting from it. The president met with oil company executives on Friday, and the general tone was not encouraging. Much of Venezuela's oil infrastructure is aged or broken and huge investments would need to be made to increase production from current levels of less than one million barrels a day, a significant decline from the peak of 3.5 million barrels a day in the 1970s. Oil executives cited past nationalizations and security as major stumbling blocks to re-investing in Venezuela. The naval blockade is tying up 20% of America's naval fleet and boots on the ground is probably not a viable long-term option. In addition, getting the oil flows improving would likely take two to three years.
What Trump may have accomplished was cutting off the oil supply from Venezuela to Iran, China, and Russia. While that may do some damage to their economies, it doesn't enhance U.S. prospects very much. Besides, with the current oil glut, adding more supply would lower the price of crude, another negative to oil executives. Shale producers are already complaining.
President Trump has also issued threats to other South American countries, specifically, Columbia and Mexico. These seem to be more bluster than substance. Columbia has already called the president's bluff. Military strikes against Mexican cartels are unlikely, especially since the CIA is deeply entrenched in drug trafficking, as Ben Norton points out in a recent explosive expose on his Geopolitical Economy Report:
Trump's continued posturing toward Greenland has raised ire in Europe, with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and others speaking out against U.S. intervention. As it is, the U.S. already has agreements and military in place. It would appear that negotiating for access to the supposed enormous supply of critical materials locked beneath the ice would be preferable to military action.
Trump, while he campaigned as the "peace president", has been nothing ot the sort. He's taken military actions against Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Yeman, and Nigeria in just his first year in office.
On Friday, Trump posted on Trusth Social that he wanted credit card interest rates capped at 10%. This amounts to either gaslighting or vote buying, as it would take congressional legislation, or at least revision of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (DIDMCA), which effectively allowed nationally-chartered banks and other financial institutions to bypass state usuury laws. While there has been some rumblings in congress on the issue, the banks, credit card companies and even credit unions are opposed to the idea.
In part, the president's post says, “AFFORDABILITY! Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%,” to which the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum and Independent Community Bankers of America responded in a joint statement:
“We share the President’s goal of helping Americans access more affordable credit. At the same time, evidence shows that a 10% interest rate cap would reduce credit availability and be devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help. If enacted, this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives. We look forward to working with the administration to ensure Americans have access to the credit they need.”
These companies make billions in revenue from interest rates of 20-30% or more, and they're not about to give that up. The president's bold proposal appears to be a dead-ender. The banking lobby's opposition to what used to be known as "usury" also points up how dependent the U.S. is on debt, not just at the government and corporate levels, but right down to the dinner tables of middle and lower class Americans.
President Trump also committed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgages or mortgage-backed securities, effectively restating QE without the Fed's involvement. In May, the president will have his own hand-picked chairman at the Fed with the tacit instruction to lower the federal funds rate. While that may be a boost to business in general terms, it is also inflationary, though the effects won't be evident for three to six months, coincidentally, after the midterms.
In a nutshell, much of Trump's policy decisions are based upon a need to keep majorities in the House and Senate, because without them, he is certain to be impeached. Current policy is based wholly on politics, not what would benefit the country most as promised by his "America First" campaign pledge.
Ukraine: The peace plans that have been circulation for months have no weight at all since they've been roundly rejected by Russia in advance. The E.U., U.K., and U.S. are continuing their charade in Ukraine for as long as possible mostly because admitting or accepting defeat would expose their ill-conceived plans of regime change (getting rid of Putin) and destroy their governments. The damage has already been done, as most leaders in the West have approval ratings in the teens and little public support. U.S. president Trump is doing a little better at 44.1%.
Gaza, Israel, and the Middle East: This all remains a tinderbox. U.S. support for Israel remains strong, despite the tenuous cease fire in Gaza and tensions all around, in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and further east to Somalia and Yemen. Iran is in its third week of widespread anti-government protests, some of which have turned violent. U.S. policy varies between supporting the protesters and bombing the country again for restarting its nuclear program. There's no telling how this will play out long term or even short term.
Dollar Hegemony and BRICS The U.S. dollar continues to lose influence as the world's reserve currency. BRICS have fully integrated bi-lateral and multi-lateral trade amongst themselves and associated countries, bypassing the dollar. Gold emerged as the top holding of central banks in 2025, surpassing U.S. treasuries, a trend that is accelerating.
U.S. Domestic Issues: Wealth disparity between the top 10% and everybody else has reached historic proportions, fueling anger and rage within the middle and lower classes. Widespread disagreement on ICE actions and deportations in general has led to more division in the general population. Race, denial of free speech, and affordability of everything from food to housing is sending a message of desperation rather than prosperity. Trump's tax cuts will help, with higher refunds to many come March, April, and May, if the IRS doesn't fail again to process returns in a timely manner. These are some of the major issues in America, keeping the country deeply divided and on edge. The rise of socialism and the waste and fraud in government are also turning the screws on the American psyche. The rhetoric from Washington D.C. and the mainstream media will likely grow louder and more divisive as the November midterms approach.
The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a bill calling for a three-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, the passage of which makes the October government shutdown look more and more like a planned event by both parties. Though approval in the Senate is being characterized as with tenuous support, there's little doubt that they'll ride the gravy train of votes, graft, and kickbacks from lobbyists. The entire congress is only in it for the money and the votes.
Corporate Earnings and the General Economy: There's a mixed message emerging between Wall Street and Main Street that's been brewing since the GFC in 2008 and the covid experience of 2020. Corporations and big business seem to be thriving while small business is on the decline with bankruptcies rising, costs and regulations strangling entrepreneurship. Wall Street firms seem to be reaping the benefits of a growing economy while the country as a whole seems to be slipping into recession. The most recent Non-Farm Payrolls from December were hardly encouraging. The average monthly gain in employment was 49,000, a significant decline from 2024, which came in at 168,000 on average per month.
This raises two questions: 1) is AI responsible for employment scarcity?; 2) are companies actually improving, or are they just beating lowered estimates, which appears to be the case for many publicly-held companies. Stock buybacks also help companies "make their numbers", so is the U.S. expanding or are companies playing accounting tricks which Wall Street knows about but won't admit out loud?
The above reflections are just part of the complex decisions facing investors as 2026 gets underway. It is nowhere near a full accounting of the issues that need to be addressed.
Stocks
Stocks started out the first full week of trading with the usual bubble bang. Even a slowing labor market was seen as good news. No reason to move anywhere but "all in" it seems. All of the major indices were up more than 1.5% for the week.
After the BLS reported December job gains fo 50,000 and revised October was down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and November down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000, Wall Street became keenly aware of the employment figures, given they will factor into the Fed's thinking concerning rate movement at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 27-28. That gave some life to markets on Friday, but not enough to guarantee another leg higher in weeks ahead.
The first taste of 2025 fourth quarter earnings will present itself in the week ahead. Among the companies worth noting delivering results are the following:
Tuesday: (before open) Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Delta Airlines
Wednesday: (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Infosys (INFY); (after close) RF Industries (RFIL)
Thursday: (before open) Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), First Horizon (FHN), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM); (after close) J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
Friday: (before open) State Street (STT); M&T Bank (MTB), Regions Financial (RF), PNC (PNC)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.61 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.63 | 3.64 | 3.58 | 3.54 |
| 12/19/2025 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.64 | 3.60 | 3.51 |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.64 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.49 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.66 | 3.65 | 3.62 | 3.58 | 3.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 3.57 | 3.52 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.90 | 4.14 | 4.75 | 4.79 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.52 | 3.58 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.82 | 4.85 |
| 12/19/2025 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 3.70 | 3.91 | 4.16 | 4.77 | 4.82 |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 3.89 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 4.81 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.47 | 3.55 | 3.74 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.81 | 4.86 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3.54 | 3.59 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.18 | 4.76 | 4.82 |
Spreads remain at elevated levels and the key yields are gradually trending higher. It's far too early in the new year to discern any real trends for interest rates, though shorter durations continue to trend toward the upper end. Use of the Fed's emergency repo facility has raised some red flags, but nobody is willing to panic just yet. Give it some time, at least until after the FOMC meeting in two weeks. There are more cockroaches.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $58.62, more than a dollar higher than last week's $57.33. The Venezuela effect will likely soon fade, as oil execs widely expressed little interest in spending resources to get the aging infrastructure rebuilt. As time marches on, there may be a print in the $40s. There's still a great deal of uncertainty.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped another two cents, to $2.76, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering Venezuela and the continued global glut.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, down another four cents at $4.19 per gallon, that figure down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.78) is down another two cents, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.30), fell another seven cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding at $2.17, a multi-year low. All of the Southeast states are below $2.66, including Florida.
In the Northeast, prices continue to decline. Only Vermont ($3.00) and Pennsylvania ($3.02) are at or above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.98.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.86) dropped another penny and remains below $3.00 for a fourth consecutive week. At the low end were Colorado ($2.31), Kansas ($2.37), and Missouri ($2.42).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 42 states, one more than last week and up 15 over the past five weeks. Arizona and New York both fell below the $3.00 threshold. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just six states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.
Bitcoin
This week: $90,633.20
Last week: $91,306.05
2 weeks ago: $87,661.04
6 months ago: $117,568.80
One year ago: $94,559.12
Five years ago: $36,022.09
For now, bitcoin remains stuck in a range between 87,000 and 94,000, which seems unlikely to change. The overall bitcoin downtrend, one that many analysts are saying could reach as low as $50,000 or $30,000 in 2026, appears to be in place with most other "coins" also wavering. One prominent voice has called for a bottom around $10,000, though that would imply an extreme number of beached whales and distress elsewhere outside of crypto.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 56.82; last week: 59.94
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70
Gold price 12/28: $4,562.00
Gold price 1/2: $4,341,90
Gold price 1/9: $4,518.40
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
Silver price 12/19: $67.39
Silver price 12/28: $79.68
Silver price 1/2: $72.26
Silver price 1/9: $79.79
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83
Gold 12/26: $4,533.00
Gold 1/2: $4,331.09
Gold 1/9: $4,508.08
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Silver 12/19: $67.21
Silver 12/26: $79.27
Silver 1/2: $72.25
Silver 1/9: $79.34
What's not to like for gold and silver holders? Even with the CME raising margin requirements twice in the last week of December and the widespread fear mongering that the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index would send prices for precious metals into the tank, both gold and silver approached all-time highs by week's end. While the "rebalancing act" will continue through Thursday of the week ahead, the overall effect will be nullified by the huge institutional buying interest and the idea that most experienced traders already priced in Bloomberg's nonsense.
Both metals should continue to rally through 2026 and probably beyond, until something serious breaks, like the global economy.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 80.00 | 92.00 | 87.16 | 87.45 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 80.00 | 91.21 | 87.36 | 88.19 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4,674.30 | 4,959.11 | 4,802.80 | 4,814.46 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4,686.89 | 4,792.94 | 4,725.20 | 4,714.75 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ramped higher, to $87.54, a gain of $4.21 from the January 4 price of $83.33 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets.
WEEKEND WRAP
The Trend is often your friend. At this juncture, if you're up, hold the line. If you're down, trim the losers.
At the Close, Friday, January 9, 2025:
Dow: 49,504.07, +237.96 (+0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,671.35, +191.33 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 6,966.28, +44.82 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: 22,591.73, +106.08 (+0.47%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1121.69 (+2.32%)
NASDAQ: +435.71 (+1.88%)
S&P 500: +107.81 (+1.57%)
NYSE Composite: +357.84 (+1.61%)
Dow Transports: +649.20 (+3.70)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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