Volume Up, Stocks Down As Malaise in May Exhibits the Results of Bad Karma

With higher and higher volumes showing up on individual stocks as well as the major averages virtually every passing day, the idea that there's something basically wrong with the markets and the global economy is beginning to build into a self-defeating, repeating, cyclical tailspin.

The major indices did another midday about-face, in classic bear market fashion, even though economic data in the US was relatively positive.

Housing starts were up - at an annualized rate of 717K on expectations of 675K, though building permits were lower than anticipated. That stocks, especially those of home builders, would rally on such news was not unexpected, though just because somebody puts a shovel in the ground does not necessarily imply that these newly-constructed homes will eventually be bought, much less completed.

However, two more broad measures of the economy were also positive. Industrial production grew at a rate of 1.1% in April, while capacity utilization for the month printed at 79.2%, a very strong and encouraging number.

Investors simply cannot shake the co-mingled issues of Europe, especially Greece, the falling Euro and rising dollar, all of which contributes to what could be a tough state of affairs for many of the US markets' global entities, which ship and sell around the world. Exports from the US will be especially damaged as the weaker foreign currencies and stronger US dollar make for pricier goods in faraway markets where demand has been slowing.

Following along the same logic, commodity prices are trending lower as well, which would help companies' bottom line cost structures and help keep them competitive, though traders are not confident there will be strong enough demand to produce meaningful pricing power and sustainable profit margins.

Underlying all these concerns are three major issues: Greece and the Euro, the upcoming presidential and congressional elections, and, political implications of US policy: the expiration of tax cuts at the end of 2012 along with uncertainty regarding President Obama's health care bill (now in the hands of the US Supreme Court) and a closetful of unwritten regulations, many of them centered on the financial industry through the Dodd-Frank legislation.

Further below the surface lies the uncertainty regarding the Fed's next move, as Operation Twist, aka QE3, expires at the end of June. Thus far, Fed chair Ben Bernanke nor any of the Fed's governors have hinted whether further easing would be forthcoming, and, at the end of the day, that is simply a nightmare scenario for the general economy and the banks, because without easy money, the fears are that global commerce will grind to a halt.

Markets hate uncertainty, and there's an abundance of that commodity in the flow right now, so there's no reason to believe that stocks will do anything but decline as profits are taken and few new positions are being staked out until there is resolution on some of these issues.

In the meantime, consumers are enjoying a bit of relief at the pump, as oil has fallen in just the past two weeks to its lowest level since December of last year and show no signs of bottoming. At the same time, housing prices keep declining and therein lies the conundrum of deflation. Everything costs less, but nobody is willing to pay now, because prices will likely be lower in a few days, weeks or months.

Obviously, there's no quick fix to any of this and behind closed doors, the leaders of the world's great nations and their central bankers are scared stiff.

The bad karma that's been spread worldwide by the political and monetary leaders is coming full circle it seems.

Dow 12,598.55, -33.45 (0.26%)
NASDAQ 2,874.04, -19.72 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,324.80, -5.86 (0.44%)
NYSE Composite 7,592.80, -43.01 (0.56%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,842,974,250
NYSE Volume 4,254,574,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1843-3756
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 76-255
WTI crude oil: 92.81, -1.17
Gold: 1,536.60, -20.50
Silver: 27.20, -0.88

Commodities, Stocks Continue to Slide in Deflationary Downturn

It's time to look at some numbers in a broad macro view to get a handle of where the global economy is heading over the next six to twelve months.

In less than six months, Americans will head to the polls to either elect a new president or give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and return him for a second term. There are also key Senate races and all members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election. The implications of who becomes president and which party controls congress will have profound implications for the US economy going forward.

However, the presidency is the most important piece of the puzzle. In a nutshell, if Obama wins, we will have a continuation of the descent into a welfare state. If Romney takes it, bet on police state, with brutal, militarized police forces mobilized to quell citizen uprisings throughout the country.

Either way, the USA is in a tough spot, because neither the Republicans or Democrats will do anything remotely positive to improve conditions for millions of Americans.

Let's look at the numbers:

America's current deficit is $1.3 trillion for 2012.

The total US debt is beyond $15 trillion, and, if you add in unfunded liabilities - pensions, Social Security and Medicare - that number grows to somewhere between $125 and $150 trillion. That's a number that cannot be paid out or paid back easily.

In just the past 15 days, reality seems to have struck all the way from Washington to Wall Street. The economy is just barely limping along; in some areas of the country, local economies are dead or nearing a fatal state. More than half the US states face budget shortfalls for fiscal 2013 (starting July 1), the worst being California, Massachusetts (thank you, Mitt!), Illinois and Louisiana. The total gap for the states is estimated at $49 billion and that may be low.

Since the states have to balance their budgets, there will be layoffs and cuts in services. These will be anything but bullish for the general economy.

Retail sales have slowed for four straight months. In related news, JC Penny's (JCP) just today reported second quarter (non) earnings. They lost 0.25 cents per share on estimates of an 11-cent loss. Top-line revenue also missed the projected target of $3.41 billion, coming in at a squeamish $3.15 billion.

CEO Ron Johnson, who took over the reigns of the struggling merchandiser recently and had been widely praised as the master planner of Apple's signature stores, has a difficult road ahead. His Apple experience cannot be rightly compared to what he is dealing with at JC Penny's . Apple's stores were designed to sell only Apple products, which are unique and the envy of the retail world. Penny's deals with thousands of products from a multitude of vendors. It's not the same, and, even though Mr. Johnson is a bright fellow, he's in over his head in an environment that is not favorable to retailers.

Penny's also announced they were discontinuing their dividend of 80 cents per share. The stock was trading down more than 10% in the after-hours.

There are more than 44 million Americans - nearly one in six - receiving food stamps.

New home sales in 2011 had their worst year since 1961.

Stocks on the major averages are down between 4.5 and 5% in just the last 10 trading days. The Dow lost ground on nine of the last ten days; the S&P and NASDAQ have finished in the red eight of the last 10 sessions.

Meanwhile, the dollar index has soared, from 78.71 on April 27, to 81.26 at the close today. Meanwhile the Euro has collapsed to under 1.28 against the US dollar, finishing at 1.2729 at today's close. The move up in the value of the dollar has sent commodities screaming lower, with gold, oil and silver all suffering steep losses in the month of May. That's actually good news for Americans, particularly because lower oil prices eventually will translate into lower gas prices at the pump.

So, what is all of this data telling us? Surprisingly, despite tens of trillions of dollars pumped into the economy since 2008 by the Fed and the federal government, the wailing tone of deflation is unmistakable. Prices are falling rapidly, though incomes are stagnant or declining. There simply are not enough people working and making sufficient money to keep price levels high.

Anecdotally, food prices are coming down. Real estate remains in a moribund, deep slump and home foreclosures are once again rising. Everything will get cheaper as the economy continues down the inescapable path of deflation because the Federal Reserve's money spigot has directed all the flows to the banks, and they are not lending, mainly because they're still repairing their badly damaged balance sheets, and, even when they do cough up some dough, the borrower has to have absolutely pristine credit, a circumstance which is becoming something of a rarity.

Some say the US economy will be destroyed because its unpayable debts will undermine the value of the dollar and cause hyper-inflation. That may be so, though it's difficult to see inflation in anything when 15-20% of Americans are living in what's essentially a day-to-day fight for survival.

If hyper-inflation does one day come about and the dollar is smashed to a fraction of its former value, a deflationary depression will occur first. The government needs low interest rates to continue paying off the massive debt it has created, and will do everything it can to keep rates low.

But, because the Federal reserve has failed so miserably on the second part of its mandate - employment - all the money in the world (and the Fed has most of it now) cannot make people spend when they have no jobs, no prospects, and are worried about having enough food to eat tomorrow. Food prices are likely to stabilize, but, for the most part, the rest of the economy is toast, though it is still marginally better than that of Europe, of which half the countries are already in recession.

The money that was furnished to the banks by the American taxpayer, courtesy of the Fed and Treasury, went straight to financial institutions, and we know that they are profligate gamblers and thieves who will only enrich themselves, leaving Main Street, small business and the American public to fend for themselves in a mostly cash system which is quietly, albeit quickly, turning into a massive black market, underground economy.

Eventually, the government will fail horribly, and many will suffer. Those with wits, skills, cunning and a propensity to see the future and break rules, will prosper. Europe will fall first, but you can bet your bottom dollar (if you still have any) that their problems will come to roost on the shimmering shores of America.

Dow 12,632.00, -63.35 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 2,893.76, -8.82 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,330.66, -7.69 (0.57%)
NYSE Composite 7,635.81, -69.64 (0.90%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,835,801,375
NYSE Volume 4,114,145,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2214-3408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 77-236 (gap widening)
WTI crude oil: 93.98, -0.80
Gold: 1,557.10, -3.90
Silver: 28.08, -0.27

Correction, Crash, Deflation, Depression: the Superfecta of Fraud

I'm writing in the first person singular today because I think today was very important. Stocks just don't go down as consistently as they have over the past few weeks unless there's a problem, and there are lots of them.

I'm not going to link to anything, but I am going to shoot my mouth off a bit about where we all are in the larger scheme of things, because, while small things matter, the big picture matters more.

The global economy is in its death throes. We've had zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) from the Fed for three-and-a-half years, and it's simply not working. The federal government is a chain around the necks of the citizenry and the media is largely complicit in shading the truth.

The US taxpayer has bailed out the TBTF banks and, culminating with JPM CEO Jaime Dimon's mea culpa last Thursday night, we find that these same banks are even bigger than before and still making risky bets with other people's money. For its part, the federal government can't collect enough taxes and still borrows 40% of every dollar it spends. Social Security and Medicare are bankrupt already, and, with millions of baby boomers retiring, the money will not be there for anybody under the ago of say, 60, right now.

Americans are awakening to the nightmare that is a leaderless, stagnating economy, brought about by the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on any nation, that of the sub-prime mortgage and consequent banking crisis of 2008. It took years for the criminals on Wall Street to skewer the American public and not a one has been prosecuted. Getting back to Mr Dimon, the most perverse, sociopathic criminal there is - who smiles at you while slowly jutting a knife between your ribs - while some of his subordinates have taken the axe for the $2 billion "London Whale" blunder, he's still CEO and in charge. Seriously, in another, saner place and time, he'd already have met his maker.

In the visage of Mr. Dimon lies much of the problem. The aristocratic, oligarchical mindset shared by the Wall Steet masters of the universe and their lackeys in the capitol, provides them with an aura of invincibility, inevitability and smug self-assuredness, while the truth is that most of them have never worked an honest day's work, steal and murder with impunity by their various market actions and bear no responsibility, guilt or shame.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the world's population lives day-to-day, wondering what miracles of stupidity these monsters will bring down upon them. Income disparity has never been higher in America; it gets worse by the day and the oligarchs, from their thrones of power on Wall Street and in Washington could give a damn. All they care about is their money and their power. The power to tax, to control, to cheat, to set prices, to ruin smaller competitors, to lie bold-faced to the American public and to have either the unmitigated gall to retain their positions or, worse yet, to run for election or re-election.

Nearly four years into this global crisis (that's what the IMF is now calling it), conditions are not getting any better. The empirical data says it is getting worse and will get even more dire as the year progresses. Unskilled and low-skilled workers cannot find reliable jobs. The self-employed must fight every day just to keep the doors open or the wheels spinning. Never has just getting by been so difficult for so many in the private sector.

I've said for years that the only things keeping this economy going are the government transfers: welfare checks, food stamps, disability payments, retirement checks, medicare payments and the like. There is no growth in the general economy, while in the public sector, despite some layoffs, employees are receiving their annual pay increases without a hitch as the government casually takes a portion of their pay and says it's going into their retirement funds, when, in fact, these funds are underfunded and will fail like the rest of the programmed, social-based government economy. Many of these public sector employees who expect benefits will get less than they paid in. Eventually, all will get nothing.

Europe is a complete basket case. The Euro is dead as a currency, an idea the supra-governmental EU magistrates are only now beginning to comprehend. When Greece departs, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and probably Belgiu will depart in short order. The world's economy will be smashed to pieces, governments have fallen and will continue to fall, eventually reaching the United States, the final battleground for fairness, decency, honesty and civil rights. It will come sooner than most expect, and the majority of people will be unprepared, just as they were unprepared for the current setbacks delivered by the centrally-planned failure machine in Washington and on Wall Street.

Realistically, there's little hope for the immediate future except complete destruction of the economy and a reset of priorities from the bottom up. In time, people will no longer look to government, to Washington, to solve their problems. Matters must and will be taken into one's own hands and out of those of the corrupt conspiracy of criminality that extends from Beijing to London to Washington and to Berlin.

The end is not here. Not yet. But it certainly is coming and it's going to be brutal for many. Prices have begun to fall on all manner of commodities. Deflation, the one, true, unstoppable market force, will prove to be the end of the Federal Reserve and the all banking nightmares and false facades. The American public, and the general public of the rest of the world, cannot afford to have its wealth stolen by feudalistic lords disguised as nice guys like Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, just to name a few.

Today's headlines were rife with departures of top executives, scandals and defections. The icons are beginning to tumble at a more rapid pace. The rats are jumping off the ship, not one by one, but in bunches now, as collapse - in the inner power circles - is seen as inevitable.

The emperors of the power and political structures have no clothes and nowhere to hide.

When the history books are written, they will note that the second Great Depression began in 2008, and, through various means of both government intervention and inaction, worsened in 2012.

There is now no doubt.

Dow 12,695.35, -125.25 (0.98%)
NASDAQ 2,902.58, -31.24 (1.06%)
S&P 500 1,338.35, -15.04 (1.11%)
NYSE Composite 7,705.45, -110.44 (1.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,691,608,250
NYSE Volume 3,688,124,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1105-4571
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 65-204 (WOW! Screaming red!)
WTI crude oil: 94.78, -1.35
Gold: 1,561.00, -23.00
Silver: 28.35, -0.54

Bad News For Small Business: The New 1099K Tax Form

Here's what your federal government is doing to help small business in America, burdening it with an overbearing, egregious, complicated new tax form. Infographic courtesy of outright.com.


Brought To By Outright.com

Wall street's Week of Worry Ends With JP Morgan Mea Culpa

In a week that will be remembered as one in which the Euro crisis came front and center, Wall Street turned its eyes upon an unlikely victim Friday, that being JP Morgan Chase.

The bank known for its "fortress" balance sheet (pure baloney) confessed to have had made a terribly wrong bet on a risk hedge - a la MF Global? - and poof went $2 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon explained how badly the bank had mistaken the markets in a conference call with journalists Thursday night after the close.

Details were sketchy, though it was widely assumed that there would be other victims in the trade involving a British trader known quaintly as "the Whale." The issue points up that even the brightest of the bright can make mistakes - and big ones at that.

While JPM's misplaced risk hedge sent futures into the tank pre-open (as if they needed any help with that), stocks initially sank, then rallied sharply into positive ground in the morning session, though all gains were ephemeral and summarily whisked away by the close, ending Wall Street's worst week in more than seven months.

Even though losses were tiny - and the NASDAQ managed to close positive by 0.18 points - signs of calamity were everywhere, from German citizens daring Greece to default and leave the Euro, to massive misapprehension over the proposed "Volker Rule" in light of the Morgan fiasco, to spiking Spanish bonds, slowing growth in China and a deflating PPI, which came in under expectations at -0.2% for April.

As the session ended with everybody closing positions in case some new, terrifying developments took place over the weekend, the once mighty, banker-run trading casino closed out the week with players seeking solace and probably more than a few strong drinks to soothe their jangled nerves.

Nobody can tell how events will play out exactly during the coming weeks, though, from the tenor of the trade this week, it seems pretty likely that conditions are not going to materially improve any time soon.

TGIF, indeed.

Of note, the Dollar Index advanced for the tenth straight day, explaining why precious metals have been pounded down so roughly over the past two weeks; and, new lows bettered new highs for the fifth day in the past six.

Dow 12,820.60, -34.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,933.82, +0.18 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,353.39, -4.60 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,816.48, -36.27 (0.46%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,692,045,125
NYSE Volume 3,727,488,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2225-3322
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 107-131
WTI crude oil: 96.13, -0.95
Gold: 1,584.00, -11.50
Silver: 28.89, -0.29