As America lurches toward inauguration day (Jan. 20), stocks remain a mixed bag.
The Dow ended the week with a small loss on Friday as the NASDAQ rose to another record close, its seventh this year.
For the week, the NAZ was up nearly one percent. The Dow's loss was minor, at less than one half percent (-0.39%), but the broader S&P and NYSE composite suffered almost no depreciation.
Overall, it was fairly uneventful in markets, which is odd, given the cross-currents blowing through the political and economic spectrum.
Next week, with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 45th president putting a final glow on the proceedings, promises to be a more volatile period, shortened by one day, as markets are idle for Monday's Martin Luther King holiday.
Ominously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains positioned below the expected 20,000 level but has been flat as a pancake for the past four weeks.
WTI crude oil remains mired in the mid-fifties, while gold, the year's best-performing asset thus far, pierced the 1200/oz. mark on Friday but fell off and closed at 1196.90 the ounce.
At The Close 1.13.16:
Dow: 19,885.73, -5.27 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,574.12, +26.63 (0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,274.64, +4.20 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,227.17, +23.02 (0.21%)
Week Ending 1.13.16:
Dow: -78.07 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: +53.06 (0.96%)
S&P 500: -2.34 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -10.45 (-0.09%)
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Thursday, January 12, 2017
Stocks Slump, Regain Ground In Anxious Session
Yesterday, it was big pharma that took a hit after Donald Trump singled them out in his press conference, saying that the US government would begin bidding lower prices for many prescription drugs.
Today, health care insurance companies took the hit - if only briefly - as the senate pushed forward a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), otherwise known as Obamacare. Aetna, Anthem, Cigna and United Health were among a handful of companies that felt some shock at the open.
The Senate voted 51-48 on a measure to repeal the current president's signature health initiative. The measure now will move to the house where its passage is all but assured, with the membership heavily weighted with Republicans.
As for the rest of the market, stocks went red at the open and trimmed early losses after 11:00 am ET. The Dow was down more than 180 points in the early going, but manage to recover almost two thirds of the losses as the session dragged forward.
Missing from the narrative today was the chorus of "Dow 20000," as the industrial index extended its failed attempt at the historic milestone for the 22nd straight session.
Maybe tomorrow...
At The Close 1.12.16:
Dow: 19,891.00, -63.28 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 5,547.49, -16.16 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 2,270.44, -4.88 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 11,204.15, -22.63 (-0.20%)
Today, health care insurance companies took the hit - if only briefly - as the senate pushed forward a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), otherwise known as Obamacare. Aetna, Anthem, Cigna and United Health were among a handful of companies that felt some shock at the open.
The Senate voted 51-48 on a measure to repeal the current president's signature health initiative. The measure now will move to the house where its passage is all but assured, with the membership heavily weighted with Republicans.
As for the rest of the market, stocks went red at the open and trimmed early losses after 11:00 am ET. The Dow was down more than 180 points in the early going, but manage to recover almost two thirds of the losses as the session dragged forward.
Missing from the narrative today was the chorus of "Dow 20000," as the industrial index extended its failed attempt at the historic milestone for the 22nd straight session.
Maybe tomorrow...
At The Close 1.12.16:
Dow: 19,891.00, -63.28 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 5,547.49, -16.16 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 2,270.44, -4.88 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 11,204.15, -22.63 (-0.20%)
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Trump Presser A Non-Event; America Awaits Inauguration
Though widely-anticipated as a market moving event, President-Elect Donald J. Trump's press conference at 11;00 ET today was more or less an exercise in sell the hype, buy the news.
Trump handled questions about the "fake news" Russian dossiers widely circulated by CNN and other outlets and quickly dismissed them as nonsense. The audacious level of mendacity displayed by the mainstream media in the run-up to the inauguration of America's 45th president has been unconscionable and unprecedented, but the Donald managed to deflect any potential harm as the media and intelligence community reports have been devoid of facts or proof of their veracity.
Other than waving off and refusing to take questions from anybody from CNN, Trump laid out basically the same nebulous outlines upon which he campaigned, without getting too specific. Thus, what the market wanted was not what they received, but traders were assuaged by the one-hour appearance and resumed trading within the prevailing range of the past month, between 19,800 and 19,999.
If the market seems moribund, it's likely the result of non-specifics from the soon-to-be-sitting president, meaning this regime of up-down-up-down may persist through the next week, culminating in next Friday's inauguration.
Otherwise, it was another uneventful day, with the Dow still planted just south of 20K.
At the Close 1.11.16
Dow: 19,954.28, +98.75 (0.50%)
NASDAQ: 5,563.65, +11.83 (0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,275.32, +6.42 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 11,221.92, +38.59 (0.35%)
Trump handled questions about the "fake news" Russian dossiers widely circulated by CNN and other outlets and quickly dismissed them as nonsense. The audacious level of mendacity displayed by the mainstream media in the run-up to the inauguration of America's 45th president has been unconscionable and unprecedented, but the Donald managed to deflect any potential harm as the media and intelligence community reports have been devoid of facts or proof of their veracity.
Other than waving off and refusing to take questions from anybody from CNN, Trump laid out basically the same nebulous outlines upon which he campaigned, without getting too specific. Thus, what the market wanted was not what they received, but traders were assuaged by the one-hour appearance and resumed trading within the prevailing range of the past month, between 19,800 and 19,999.
If the market seems moribund, it's likely the result of non-specifics from the soon-to-be-sitting president, meaning this regime of up-down-up-down may persist through the next week, culminating in next Friday's inauguration.
Otherwise, it was another uneventful day, with the Dow still planted just south of 20K.
At the Close 1.11.16
Dow: 19,954.28, +98.75 (0.50%)
NASDAQ: 5,563.65, +11.83 (0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,275.32, +6.42 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 11,221.92, +38.59 (0.35%)
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Dow 20000 No Go Again; Is The Trump Rally Over?
In 2016, having first crossed the 19,800 point on December 12 and closing above 19,900 the following day, one would have thought that crossing the 20,000 rubicon for the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have been a slam dunk before New Year.
It wasn't and it still isn't. Like the final five yards on a scoring football drive, the final 100-200 points on the widely-watched blue chip index are proving to be tough, resistant, and, at this point, possibly a field goal attempt would be in order. Or a punt.
Including the 12th of December, it's been 20 days since the "Dow 20,000" baseball caps began circulating, but nobody's been able to don one just yet. There has been more than a fair share of drama over the simply psychological level, especially this past Friday, when the average fell just 0.37 points short of making magic.
But twenty days of hanging just below the number is giving some investors cause to pause and consider that the eight-year bull market - and more specifically, the massive post-election Trump rally - is finally tiring and about to head back to the corral. And if that happens, the confidence so prevalent the past few months will have been for naught unless one had the foresight to sell into the rally at some point.
Stocks continue to be highly valued, some say overbought. The last meaningful decline was in January of last year when the Dow and other indices took a hit somewhere between 12 and 15%. Though that particular correction never materialized into a bear market, it was a confidence-shaker and those who suffered losses are wont to forget it.
Taking a stab in the dark, it would appear that speculators are more interested in NASDAQ stocks, which continue to tear up new highs, just as the Dow is stalling. Could the NAZ pull the Dow along with it, or does the Dow hold the losing hand with which it will eventually pull down the composite, S&P, transports, et. al.?
With the Dow ending today roughly 150 points from the requisite top, it's still out there for the taking, though there seems to be no catalyst for any kind of extended move, so, reiterating past posts, even if the Dow makes the mark, it's doubtful it would hold for long. A correction is in the cards and it's likely to be swift rather than a slow grind, so day traders must keep stop losses close to the vest and hang on with all their fright. Yes, that's no typo. Fear and greed rule the markets and the fear index is on the rise.
At the Close 1.10.16:
Dow: 19,855.53, -31.85 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 5,551.82, +20.00 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,268.90, 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,183.33, +13.54 (0.12%)
It wasn't and it still isn't. Like the final five yards on a scoring football drive, the final 100-200 points on the widely-watched blue chip index are proving to be tough, resistant, and, at this point, possibly a field goal attempt would be in order. Or a punt.
Including the 12th of December, it's been 20 days since the "Dow 20,000" baseball caps began circulating, but nobody's been able to don one just yet. There has been more than a fair share of drama over the simply psychological level, especially this past Friday, when the average fell just 0.37 points short of making magic.
But twenty days of hanging just below the number is giving some investors cause to pause and consider that the eight-year bull market - and more specifically, the massive post-election Trump rally - is finally tiring and about to head back to the corral. And if that happens, the confidence so prevalent the past few months will have been for naught unless one had the foresight to sell into the rally at some point.
Stocks continue to be highly valued, some say overbought. The last meaningful decline was in January of last year when the Dow and other indices took a hit somewhere between 12 and 15%. Though that particular correction never materialized into a bear market, it was a confidence-shaker and those who suffered losses are wont to forget it.
Taking a stab in the dark, it would appear that speculators are more interested in NASDAQ stocks, which continue to tear up new highs, just as the Dow is stalling. Could the NAZ pull the Dow along with it, or does the Dow hold the losing hand with which it will eventually pull down the composite, S&P, transports, et. al.?
With the Dow ending today roughly 150 points from the requisite top, it's still out there for the taking, though there seems to be no catalyst for any kind of extended move, so, reiterating past posts, even if the Dow makes the mark, it's doubtful it would hold for long. A correction is in the cards and it's likely to be swift rather than a slow grind, so day traders must keep stop losses close to the vest and hang on with all their fright. Yes, that's no typo. Fear and greed rule the markets and the fear index is on the rise.
At the Close 1.10.16:
Dow: 19,855.53, -31.85 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 5,551.82, +20.00 (0.36%)
S&P 500: 2,268.90, 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 11,183.33, +13.54 (0.12%)
Monday, January 9, 2017
Futures: Right Or Wrong Directional Trades; 12 Step Bloody Mary Redux
Stocks never had a chance on the first day of the first "full" week of trading (last week was only four days), dropping like rocks from a crumbling overpass at the open, only briefly showing any positive momentum and closing lower for the day, with the obvious exception of the wildly overpriced, speculative, and soon-to-crash NASDAQ.
The Dow refused to get even within earshot of 20,000, falling instead below 19,900 at the close, so the (so far) winning strategy of Fearless Rick remains intact. The peerless prognosticator called for "no Dow 20,000" by year-end 2016, and reiterates the same sentiment until June 2017, with a "may not" break over 20,000 until the year 2023.
It's a bold shot across the bow of the happy-happy, joy-joy "recovery" or the trumpeters of one Donald J. Trump, the president-elect who vows to "Make America Great Again." Not that Fearless Rick doubts the Donald; he backed his campaign from the start, predicting he would win the presidency as far back as December 31, 2016 (all the way at the end of the article), but the Trump years in the White House may be a calculated, "one step forward, two steps back," as radical policy shifts will cause some serious FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and some liquidations that should have happened in 2008 or 2009 will occur under the Trump banner (see Sears, Mexico).
All of which brings up the point of futures and options, wherein one's ability to predict events beforehand is called into serious question. As a matter of fact, all investors are predisposed to make wagers on future events, whether they be into stocks, commodities or precious metals, because one would not "invest" in a company or anything without some idea that it would be worth more tomorrow or next month or next year than it is today.
Thus, investors fall into various camps, which, for matters better discussed elsewhere, are largely defined as "right until you're wrong" and "wrong until you're right."
The matter is simple, but real life examples provide the most descriptive narrative.
Take Fearless Rick's one-way bet on Dow 20,000. That's a case of being "right until you're wrong." So far, Rick is right and myriad derivative trades can be based upon his open principle, especially if one is to extend the time frame out to the ludicrous, or in this case, 2023.
Rick is also a precious metals speculator. In December he called for silver under $16 when it was trading in the range of $17 to $18. He was, early on, "wrong until he was right." The implications for investors - and one could take a lesson or two from the movie "The Big Short" for a glimpse at how extreme these future "wagers can become.
Speculation, prognostication and risk are not for everybody, especially those of feint heart. For the rest of us, it's a way of life.
At The Close 1/9/16:
Dow: 19,887.38, -76.42 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 5,531.82, +10.76 (0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,268.90, -8.08 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 11,169.79, -67.83 (-0.60%)
And, just because it's the preferred weather for Bloody Mary's, Fearless Rick's 12-Step Bloody Mary™
1. Glass
2. Ice
3. Vodka
4. garlic pepper
5. hot sauce
6. ground black pepper
7. worcestershire sauce
8. celery seed
9. tomato juice
10. lime (or lemon) juice
11. horseradish
12. combine, stir and drink.
Apologies to alcoholics everywhere, from drunks around the world.
The Dow refused to get even within earshot of 20,000, falling instead below 19,900 at the close, so the (so far) winning strategy of Fearless Rick remains intact. The peerless prognosticator called for "no Dow 20,000" by year-end 2016, and reiterates the same sentiment until June 2017, with a "may not" break over 20,000 until the year 2023.
It's a bold shot across the bow of the happy-happy, joy-joy "recovery" or the trumpeters of one Donald J. Trump, the president-elect who vows to "Make America Great Again." Not that Fearless Rick doubts the Donald; he backed his campaign from the start, predicting he would win the presidency as far back as December 31, 2016 (all the way at the end of the article), but the Trump years in the White House may be a calculated, "one step forward, two steps back," as radical policy shifts will cause some serious FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) and some liquidations that should have happened in 2008 or 2009 will occur under the Trump banner (see Sears, Mexico).
All of which brings up the point of futures and options, wherein one's ability to predict events beforehand is called into serious question. As a matter of fact, all investors are predisposed to make wagers on future events, whether they be into stocks, commodities or precious metals, because one would not "invest" in a company or anything without some idea that it would be worth more tomorrow or next month or next year than it is today.
Thus, investors fall into various camps, which, for matters better discussed elsewhere, are largely defined as "right until you're wrong" and "wrong until you're right."
The matter is simple, but real life examples provide the most descriptive narrative.
Take Fearless Rick's one-way bet on Dow 20,000. That's a case of being "right until you're wrong." So far, Rick is right and myriad derivative trades can be based upon his open principle, especially if one is to extend the time frame out to the ludicrous, or in this case, 2023.
Rick is also a precious metals speculator. In December he called for silver under $16 when it was trading in the range of $17 to $18. He was, early on, "wrong until he was right." The implications for investors - and one could take a lesson or two from the movie "The Big Short" for a glimpse at how extreme these future "wagers can become.
Speculation, prognostication and risk are not for everybody, especially those of feint heart. For the rest of us, it's a way of life.
It seems to be a law of nature, inflexible and inexorable, that those who will not risk cannot win.--John Paul Jones
At The Close 1/9/16:
Dow: 19,887.38, -76.42 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 5,531.82, +10.76 (0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,268.90, -8.08 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 11,169.79, -67.83 (-0.60%)
And, just because it's the preferred weather for Bloody Mary's, Fearless Rick's 12-Step Bloody Mary™
1. Glass
2. Ice
3. Vodka
4. garlic pepper
5. hot sauce
6. ground black pepper
7. worcestershire sauce
8. celery seed
9. tomato juice
10. lime (or lemon) juice
11. horseradish
12. combine, stir and drink.
Apologies to alcoholics everywhere, from drunks around the world.
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