Thursday, March 15, 2018

Stocks Bounce, Dead Cat Variety, Then Fade

Nothing much to see here, though the Dow has managed to stay in a relatively tight range, below the interim high and above the interim low, still negative for the month.

Further patience, with a slight bias to the short side, is advised

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
3/1/18 24,608.98 -420.22 -420.22
3/2/18 24,538.06 -70.92 -491.14
3/5/18 24,874.76 +336.70 -154.44
3/6/18 24,884.12 +9.36 -145.08
3/7/18 24,801.36 -82.76 -227.84
3/8/18 24,895.21 +93.85 -133.99
3/9/18 25,335.74 +440.53 +306.54
3/12/18 25,178.61 -157.13 +149.41
3/13/18 25,007.03 -171.58 -22.17
3/14/18 24,758.12 -248.91 -271.08
3/15/18 24,873.66 +115.54 -155.54

At the Close, Thursday, March 15, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,873.66, +115.54 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 7,481.74, -15.07 (-0.20%)
S&P 500: 2,747.33, -2.15 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,743.61, -19.06 (-0.15%)


Report from upstate NY (30 miles east of Rochester) Crash is coming, very soon. Restaurants are closing everywhere. Most of the small towns, like Sodus, Macedon, Clyde, Newark have plenty of retail space for lease, much of it on the block for over two years.

Retail is awful. Only the biggest, best-established stores are surviving, and that's all they're doing. People are over-taxed, stressed out, debt-laden zombies. Average of $22k per student in most districts. Upstate NY (from Albany west to Buffalo) has been in a depression for the past 20 years, but, seriously, it's getting worse. People are down to buying just necessities and trying to pay off credit card and school debt. Forget about mortgages. It's like the sub-prime crisis is still ongoing. Monroe County (Rochester) lists two to three foreclosures a day.

The narrative that we're in "recovery" or "expansion" is complete horse manure. As soon as you make some money, there's the revenue guy or the locals erecting more stupid regulations to make life more difficult.

A true cleansing is needed. Start by closing all the schools. Screw the overpaid, fat, stupid teachers and their huge pension load. They suck. They don't teach; they only take. Same for most government employees. Then sack half the municipal and state employees. Then 50% of the federal employees. When half of the nation is on welfare, cut that off, shoot the worthless eaters and start over.

I'm in my mid-60s and I have to admit, I've never seen the economy in worse condition. Ever since 2008, it's been every man for himself. Pretty darn sad. We used to have a good country, but it's been going downhill for several generations. Half of the youth are worthless and will be dangerous.

Bankruptcy filings will erupt in the second half this year unless there's dramatic change from within. Trump can't do it all, but he's fighting a deflation monster nobody wants to admit exists.

Here, with a foot of snow on the ground five days before Spring, things are looking pretty damn bleak.

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