Anybody who has every employed critical, logical thinking to address any problem probably sees what's going on regarding the pandemic, government mandates, Wall Street's enthusiastic rally, and the financial strip-mining of what's left of the middle class, not just in the United States, but around the world.
Just in case one is in need of a refresher, here's a brief month-by-month rundown:
January, 2020: WuHan Flu detected and reported upon in China.
February, 2020: Flu spread, China is largely locked down, other countries begin reporting cases.
March, 2020: Flu spreads massively to Europe and Asia, entire countries locked down, businesses closed, people forced to "shelter-in-place" and "social distance." Stock market crashes. Fed steps in with various programs to aid Wall Street and bolster stressed balance sheets in major firms and banks.
April 2020: Flu continues to spread: New York City is epicenter in United States; lockdowns continue. Stocks begin to rally.
May 2020: Some states begin re-opening their economies, CDC and mainstream media warns of a second wave. Stock rally accelerates as unemployment spikes to record levels.
June 2020: Cases begin to build up in states that were warned by the CDC. Stock rally moderates.
July 2020: The world's biggest banks, those in the US, begin reporting second quarter results, which are almost universally positive and higher than estimates. Stocks resume rally. Media and CDC continue to warn about virus, which, to most people, seems non-existent. States begin imposing more strict requirements for mask-wearing, shut down "non-essential" businesses again. Northeaster states (New York, New Jersey) begin imposing travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines to visitors from other states.
OK, left out are a load of details, including the protests, looting, rioting, tearing down of statuary and associated BLM and ANTIFA-inspired madness. That was largely an unrelated sideshow.
Logical-thinking people have determined a number of things:
Now, here are two stories to sort out in the logic maze:
Wolf Richter of Wolf Street reports: It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Rate
and
From Great Britain: NHS Consultant Says Staff Are Being Silenced Over COVID19
Finally, the last of the important second quarter earnings reports, from Bank of America (BAC):
Bank of America (BAC) profit was cut in half from a year ago, totaling $3.28 billion, or $0.37 per share in the second quarter of 2020. This compares with $7.11 billion, or $0.74 per share, in 2019's second quarter.
Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.27 per share, so it actually counts as a win ("beat") and will be reported as such by many outlets.
Revenue for the quarter fell 3.2% to $22.33 billion from $23.08 billion last year.
Loan loss reserves, or, as the banks like to call it now, "provision for credit losses" was increased by 5.1 billion to nearly $10 billion total for the first and second quarter combined. Bear in mind that Bank of America is one of the world's leading consumer lenders, issuing mortgages for residential and commercial clients, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, business lines of credit, and home equity loans.
While $10 billion in reserves may sound like a lot of money, in reality, it's far short of what will eventually be written down by the bank. Mortgages and credit cards have been put into various forbearances, beginning in March. Along with the PPP loans to small businesses and the $600 extra unemployment benefits doled out to millions across the country, the recession and resultant slowdown in consumer spending and business activity has been delayed. More pain will come in the third and fourth quarters. This quarter's results are very counter-intuitive, so it's essential to sift through the noise and bluster and realize that this is only an early reprieve from a financial panic which continues to unfold in fits and starts.
The biggest banks largely made money trading, as the stock market rallied from late March through to the present.
Those interested in slogging through the 18-page press release and financial data [PDF] can do so here.
Second quarter results and loan loss provisions from non-bank financial entities, especially CapitalOne (COF) and Discover (DFS) should be more revealing and possibly more severe. These "shadow banks" don't have investment arms like BofA or JP Morgan. They are mainline consumer lenders of credit cards, auto loans, and a small mix of home equity and mortgage loans, thus, subject to be hard hit by an economic downturn and chronic unemployment. Both report next week, CapitalOne on the 21st and Discover on the 22nd. Also, watch American Express (AXP) which reports on the 24th.
As an afterthought, consider what's coming down the pike. Now that the BLM and ANTIFA protests have subsided and the backlashing by conservative America has begun, the next issue will be whether or not to open public schools over the next four to six or seven weeks, depending on where one lives.
So far, the school districts that have announced plans have presented a basket of options, each district making up an agenda as they go along. Some are not re-opening to students, opting for some form of distance learning alternative. Others are using a hybrid approach. A small number are opening fully, but with various new rules and restrictions. It's complete chaos with no guiding principles.
The other issue will be professional sports, which have been shut down for four months, suspending the NBA season and all but canceling Major League Baseball. Both are supposed to resume in some fashion - without fans in the stands - soon. The NBA is set to resume play for the 2019-20 season on July 30. MLB is planning to open a 60-game season beginning July 23 and 24. Both leagues have announced that some players have tested positive for COVID-19 and some players are already refusing to play.
College football is in limbo. There's been no word from the NCAA on whether play will go according to schedule (about six weeks from now) or whether there will be a delay. The NFL has announced that the 2020 season will proceed as planned. Some teams have already announced that no fans will be allowed to attend games.
First, it's hard to imagine empty stands in arenas, stadiums, ballparks, and fields which normally accommodate tens of thousands of fans. Up to 100,000 attend some college football games. Baseball stadiums are built for anywhere from 38,000 to 50,000 fans. NFL stadiums routinely host up to 80,000. Even if the games are played, it won't be the same. One questions the logic of even playing in the huge facilities. Teams and leagues could save significant sums of money playing in more cozy environs. Without fans, all they need are the fields or courts and some sideline area. NFL games could be played at larger high school stadia.
Then there's the distinct possibility that the games will be cancelled again, either by government edict or over fear of contracting the dreaded COVID by players, officials, mascots, trainers, you name it.
Schools and sports need to be monitored for future developments.
You've been played. Again. You're still being played right now and it's not going to stop.
Do not be guided in your personal economic and social decisions by garbage media, Wall Street hype, nor government dictates. Let logic and critical thinking guide you to your best outcome.
The following is presented as a public service:
Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko
Board Certified Family Practitioner
501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950
845-238-0000
March 23, 2020
To all medical professionals around the world:
My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:
1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).
My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.
Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
(Under severe pressure from the media, government entities, and presumably the CDC, Dr. Zelenko retired from his clinic on May 20, 2020 after 20 years as a medical practitioner.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 15, 2020:
Dow: 26,870.10, +227.50 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 10,550.49, +61.89 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 3,226.56, +29.04 (+0.91%)
NYSE: 12,391.32, +187.12 (+1.53%)
Just in case one is in need of a refresher, here's a brief month-by-month rundown:
January, 2020: WuHan Flu detected and reported upon in China.
February, 2020: Flu spread, China is largely locked down, other countries begin reporting cases.
March, 2020: Flu spreads massively to Europe and Asia, entire countries locked down, businesses closed, people forced to "shelter-in-place" and "social distance." Stock market crashes. Fed steps in with various programs to aid Wall Street and bolster stressed balance sheets in major firms and banks.
April 2020: Flu continues to spread: New York City is epicenter in United States; lockdowns continue. Stocks begin to rally.
May 2020: Some states begin re-opening their economies, CDC and mainstream media warns of a second wave. Stock rally accelerates as unemployment spikes to record levels.
June 2020: Cases begin to build up in states that were warned by the CDC. Stock rally moderates.
July 2020: The world's biggest banks, those in the US, begin reporting second quarter results, which are almost universally positive and higher than estimates. Stocks resume rally. Media and CDC continue to warn about virus, which, to most people, seems non-existent. States begin imposing more strict requirements for mask-wearing, shut down "non-essential" businesses again. Northeaster states (New York, New Jersey) begin imposing travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines to visitors from other states.
OK, left out are a load of details, including the protests, looting, rioting, tearing down of statuary and associated BLM and ANTIFA-inspired madness. That was largely an unrelated sideshow.
Logical-thinking people have determined a number of things:
- The mainstream media is full of liars, prevaricators, and propagandists. This was already well known.
- The coronavirus kills mostly people over 60 with pre-existing conditions (co-morbidities) such as heart disease, diabetes, and especially, morbid obesity.
- Government lockdowns, school closings, business closings, stay-at-home orders, etc. were government overreach and crushed the Main Street economy.
- The Federal Reserve bailed out Wall Street and the banks, as it always does.
- While private sector small businesses and employees were ravaged, nobody in the public sector (federal, state, local government) missed a day's pay even though most of them were not working full or even part time.
- The current "wave" of cases is largely made up and bolstered by an enormous ramp-up in testing. More tests = more cases = more fear-mongering by the media. Meanwhile, death rates have been decreasing steadily and the media fails repeatedly to report that.
- Far less than one percent of the total population in the United States has contracted COVID-19. Fewer than 150,000 have died from COVID-19, according to official sources. Anecdotal evidence that COVID-19 deaths have been wildly exaggerated is everywhere.
- It's estimated that 42-50% of small businesses which were shut down by state governments will never reopen. Bankruptcies are about to explode. Unemployment is not going to rebound.
Now, here are two stories to sort out in the logic maze:
Wolf Richter of Wolf Street reports: It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Rate
and
From Great Britain: NHS Consultant Says Staff Are Being Silenced Over COVID19
Finally, the last of the important second quarter earnings reports, from Bank of America (BAC):
Bank of America (BAC) profit was cut in half from a year ago, totaling $3.28 billion, or $0.37 per share in the second quarter of 2020. This compares with $7.11 billion, or $0.74 per share, in 2019's second quarter.
Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.27 per share, so it actually counts as a win ("beat") and will be reported as such by many outlets.
Revenue for the quarter fell 3.2% to $22.33 billion from $23.08 billion last year.
Loan loss reserves, or, as the banks like to call it now, "provision for credit losses" was increased by 5.1 billion to nearly $10 billion total for the first and second quarter combined. Bear in mind that Bank of America is one of the world's leading consumer lenders, issuing mortgages for residential and commercial clients, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, business lines of credit, and home equity loans.
While $10 billion in reserves may sound like a lot of money, in reality, it's far short of what will eventually be written down by the bank. Mortgages and credit cards have been put into various forbearances, beginning in March. Along with the PPP loans to small businesses and the $600 extra unemployment benefits doled out to millions across the country, the recession and resultant slowdown in consumer spending and business activity has been delayed. More pain will come in the third and fourth quarters. This quarter's results are very counter-intuitive, so it's essential to sift through the noise and bluster and realize that this is only an early reprieve from a financial panic which continues to unfold in fits and starts.
The biggest banks largely made money trading, as the stock market rallied from late March through to the present.
Those interested in slogging through the 18-page press release and financial data [PDF] can do so here.
Second quarter results and loan loss provisions from non-bank financial entities, especially CapitalOne (COF) and Discover (DFS) should be more revealing and possibly more severe. These "shadow banks" don't have investment arms like BofA or JP Morgan. They are mainline consumer lenders of credit cards, auto loans, and a small mix of home equity and mortgage loans, thus, subject to be hard hit by an economic downturn and chronic unemployment. Both report next week, CapitalOne on the 21st and Discover on the 22nd. Also, watch American Express (AXP) which reports on the 24th.
As an afterthought, consider what's coming down the pike. Now that the BLM and ANTIFA protests have subsided and the backlashing by conservative America has begun, the next issue will be whether or not to open public schools over the next four to six or seven weeks, depending on where one lives.
So far, the school districts that have announced plans have presented a basket of options, each district making up an agenda as they go along. Some are not re-opening to students, opting for some form of distance learning alternative. Others are using a hybrid approach. A small number are opening fully, but with various new rules and restrictions. It's complete chaos with no guiding principles.
The other issue will be professional sports, which have been shut down for four months, suspending the NBA season and all but canceling Major League Baseball. Both are supposed to resume in some fashion - without fans in the stands - soon. The NBA is set to resume play for the 2019-20 season on July 30. MLB is planning to open a 60-game season beginning July 23 and 24. Both leagues have announced that some players have tested positive for COVID-19 and some players are already refusing to play.
College football is in limbo. There's been no word from the NCAA on whether play will go according to schedule (about six weeks from now) or whether there will be a delay. The NFL has announced that the 2020 season will proceed as planned. Some teams have already announced that no fans will be allowed to attend games.
First, it's hard to imagine empty stands in arenas, stadiums, ballparks, and fields which normally accommodate tens of thousands of fans. Up to 100,000 attend some college football games. Baseball stadiums are built for anywhere from 38,000 to 50,000 fans. NFL stadiums routinely host up to 80,000. Even if the games are played, it won't be the same. One questions the logic of even playing in the huge facilities. Teams and leagues could save significant sums of money playing in more cozy environs. Without fans, all they need are the fields or courts and some sideline area. NFL games could be played at larger high school stadia.
Then there's the distinct possibility that the games will be cancelled again, either by government edict or over fear of contracting the dreaded COVID by players, officials, mascots, trainers, you name it.
Schools and sports need to be monitored for future developments.
You've been played. Again. You're still being played right now and it's not going to stop.
Do not be guided in your personal economic and social decisions by garbage media, Wall Street hype, nor government dictates. Let logic and critical thinking guide you to your best outcome.
The following is presented as a public service:
Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko
Board Certified Family Practitioner
501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950
845-238-0000
March 23, 2020
To all medical professionals around the world:
My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:
1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).
My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.
Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
(Under severe pressure from the media, government entities, and presumably the CDC, Dr. Zelenko retired from his clinic on May 20, 2020 after 20 years as a medical practitioner.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 15, 2020:
Dow: 26,870.10, +227.50 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 10,550.49, +61.89 (+0.59%)
S&P 500: 3,226.56, +29.04 (+0.91%)
NYSE: 12,391.32, +187.12 (+1.53%)
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