July Jobs Number Shows 1.76 Million Gain, Unemployment at 10.2%; Markets Not Overly Impressed

While Friday looks to be an interesting day for traders of all stripes, next week could be one of the more volatile in some time.

Anticipation of July non-farm payroll data at 8:30 (at this writing, half and hour away) has put some pressure on equity futures, at their worst levels in weeks though the jobs data is not expected to be a major drag on stocks.

Perhaps more worrying is President Trump's late night executive order banning Americans from transactions involving China’s ByteDance (parent of TikTok) and WeChat (owned by Tencent). The order will go into effect in 45 days. The president's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka, Plunge Protection Team, or, PPT) has also made a recommendation to delist Chinese companies on US exchanges that are not become compliant with US accounting standards. There's a bit of dark humor here, as the Working Group is notorious for putting a bid under stocks when they're approaching collapse and the idea of US companies actually in compliance with GAAP standards is somewhat laughable when earnings reports are laden with one time charges, off-balance sheet transactions, pre-tax calculations and other accounting tricks designed to shield firms from investor backlash.

The president appears to have struck a nerve with his recent verbal and written attacks against communist China. They are a major trading partner, albeit the one-sided flow of money having headed to them over the past 40 years, and many companies are stuck with agreements and supply chain parameters that are being eroded as US-China relations deteriorate. A lot of money is at risk and the whole world knows it.

Beyond the president's trade and sleepless night antics, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Treasury Secretary have made little to no progress with steadfast Democrats - particularly NY senator Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - who haven't budged on their demands for a much bigger and more encompassing stimulus bill currently under negotiation.

It's all politics all the time in Washington, but this struggle has implications that will likely have a major effect on the November elections. Apparently, the Democrats believe that by holding out on key tenets of their $3 trillion HEROES (Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions) act over the roughly $1 trillion proposal offered by the White House, they can lay blame on "stingy" Republicans and look good holding out for more free things for everybody.

Of course, the strategy is not without risks. Potential voters may see the Democrats holding out for too much and scuttling any chance of getting most Americans another round of $1200 checks and an extension - of any kind - on the added unemployment benefits that recently expired. Rightly, citizens should blame both sides, just for being politicians and using the American people as a foil for their election hopes. The White House has indicated that if a deal is not reached Friday, they will cease negotiations and let congress deal with it on its own. Republicans in the Senate should be a shamed of themselves for not being involved in some kind of compromise, but, of course, they have no shame left after doing nothing when they had the presidency and majorities in both houses from 2016 through 2018.

That said, it's looking like average working or laid off Americans are sure to suffer again for the foibles of feckless politicians. And people wonder why voter turnout is so low...

Getting closer to non-farm payroll data, here (An Effective COVID Treatment the Media Continues to Besmirch) is an excellent analysis by Steven Hatfill published on RealClearPolitics.com on August 4 about the effectiveness of hydroxychloroqine in the fight against COVID-19. Why is nobody listening to respected authorities like Hatfill?

Steven Hatfill is a veteran virologist who helped establish the Rapid Hemorrhagic Fever Response Teams for the National Medical Disaster Unit in Kenya, Africa. He is an adjunct assistant professor in two departments at the George Washington University Medical Center where he teaches mass casualty medicine. He is principle author of the prophetic book “Three Seconds Until Midnight -- Preparing for the Next Pandemic,” published by Amazon in 2019.

It's just after 8:30 now and the July non-farm payroll numbers are out.

As expected, the mangled data was benign at worst and positive at best, showing that the US added 1.76 million jobs during the month. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2%. For what it's worth, futures brightened up a bit on the announcement, but are still solidly in the red as the opening bell for the final trading day of the week approaches.

At the Close, Thursday, August 6, 2020:
Dow: 27,386.98, +185.46 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: 11,108.07, +109.67 (+1.00%)
S&P 500: 3,349.16, +21.39 (+0.64%)
NYSE: 12,729.17, -2.39 (-0.02%)