We'll get to the good stuff in a few paragraphs, but first, for the record, the salient numbers.
Stocks had another mostly impressive week, slowed down slightly on Friday by the reality of the July non-farm payrolls data. While the July jobs number exceeded expectations with the creation of 1,763,000 employment positions. The unemployment rate fell from 10.6% to 10.2%, and it was that nagging reminder that millions of Americans are still out of work that took some steam away from Wall Street.
Led by an impressive 1000+ point gain on the Dow Industrials (+3.80%), stocks out-performed expectations in the face of continuing COVID-19 issues, the NASDAQ making another in a long stretch of record closes Thursday (11,108.07) before Friday's giveback.
Fixed income rallied alongside stocks, with the 10-year note recording a record low yield of 0.52% on Tuesday. The Treasury complex did, however, finish the week roughly where it started, with the 30-year at 1.23% and the 1-month bill off a mere one basis point to 0.08%.
Crude oil continued to trade rangebound, as WTI crude closed out the week at 41.22 Since mid-June, a barrel of WTI crude oil has been priced between $38 and $42 due to slack demand and a glut on the world market.
The real story was in the precious metals space, where silver stole the spotlight from gold. A little more than a week earlier, the price of gold in US dollars set an all-time high, but by Thursday's close of 2,069.40, was beginning to gain the attention of many more than the usual gold bugs. Finishing the week at 2,028.00, gold's rise seems to be an unstoppable force.
Silver was a runaway success on the week, reaching as high as $29.88 on the COMEX. even though it closed Friday at $27.54, it still managed a gain of $3.32, or 13.7%. Silver is up an incredible 51.24% in just the past 30 days.
GoldMoney.com's Allasdair Macleod believes bullion banks and fiat currencies have no way out as gold vaults past $2000 and silver powers forward as a secondary current.
Ted Butler reminds us that silver is also an industrial metal and an even more significant price move could develop if makers of solar panels and electrical devices get the idea that it's getting too expensive and move to buy up existing or future supplies.
In the physical world, premiums and shortages are widespread on both metals. Here are the most recent prices for selected items on eBay (including shipping, which is often free):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 33.00 / 43.11 / 35.99 / 35.45
1 oz silver bar: 32.95 / 43.90 / 36.83 / 36.08
1 oz gold coin: 2,000.00 / 2,204.28 / 2,152.10 / 2,168.32
1 oz gold bar: 2,053.90 / 2,237.00 / 2,151.87 / 2,136.22
At the Close, Friday, August 8, 2020:
Dow: 27,433.48, +46.50 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 11,010.98, -97.09 (-0.87%)
S&P 500: 3,351.28, +2.12 (+0.06%)
NYSE: 12,765.84, +36.68 (+0.29%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1005.16 (+3.80%)
NASDAQ: +265.71 (+2.47%)
S&P 500: +80.16 (+2.45%)
NYSE: +300.79 (+2.41%)
The biggest news of the week, however, came Saturday afternoon, when President Trump took to the podium at his private golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey, to announce the signing of four executive orders after congress wasted weeks trying to negotiate a stimulus package.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows spent countless hours over the past three weeks trying to sway intractable, unbudging Democrats led by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, senator from New York toward a workable compromise.
When discussions broke down entirely on Friday, the President was ready to act on his own and did so on Saturday.
The four executive orders are 1) to continue paying a supplemental federal unemployment benefit for millions of Americans out of work, lowering the amount from $600 a week to $400 through the end of 2020; 2) extending a moratorium on federal student loan payments; 3) recommendations for a continuation of a freeze on some evictions and foreclosures during the COVID-19 crisis, and; 4) deferral of the employee portion of the payroll tax from August 1 through the end of the year for people who earn less than $100,000.
Missing was the $1200 checks to eligible Americans that were promised by both sides, though many of the recipients of the government stipend were already receiving enhanced unemployment. Congress may step forward with a smaller, slimmed-down relief bill to address the needs of seniors and the self-employed and destitute.
Thus, President Trump stepped around congress and acted forcibly on his own, prompting cries of derision and unfairness from the liberal side and threats of lawsuits challenging his authority to distribute funds. However, the President seemed to be within his rights since the money, especially for enhanced unemployment payments, was already in the hands of the states. No further money was needed to be appropriated.
Finally, here's the late, great Robert Goulet, singing "The Impossible Dream," a song from the Broadway smash hit, "Man of La Mancha." Based on the novel, "Don Quixote" by Miguel de Cervantes, the 1965 musical by Dale Wasserman, lyrics by Joe Darion, and music by Mitch Leigh is a loose interpretation of Cervantes' greatest novel, itself a masterpiece of Western literature, published in two parts in 1605 and 1609.
The original 1965 Broadway production of "Man of La Mancha" ran for 2,328 performances and won five Tony Awards, including Best Musical. It has been revived four times on Broadway, becoming one of the most enduring works of musical theatre.
"The Impossible Dream" was the principal song from the show and it became an American classic. We present it here in tribute to President Trump. The lyrics aptly capture the essence of Trump's crusade against the deep state and successive campaigns for the presidency of the United States.
Enjoy.
The Impossible Dream
To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
To run where the brave dare not go
To right the unrightable wrong
To love pure and chaste from afar
To try when your arms are too weary
To reach the unreachable star
This is my quest, to follow that star
No matter how hopeless, no matter how far
To fight for the right
Without question or pause
To be willing to march
Into hell for a heavenly cause
And I know if I'll only be true
To this glorious quest
That my heart will lay peaceful and calm
When I'm laid to my rest
And the world will be better for this
That one man scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To reach the unreachable star.
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