Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Dow, S&P 500, NYSE All Close At Record Highs, The End Not Within Sight Nor Sound

With the S&P 500 sailing well past the 4,000 mark to yet another new record close, the Dow putting 35,000 by year-end within earshot and the NYSE Composite joining the gang of indices setting new all-time highs, only the NASDAQ is lagging due to the improbable negative sentiment toward tech stocks.

That distaste for everything internet, interconnected, artificial-intelligenced and spacey is not likely to persist for long. With the first quarter having closed out last week, it's nearly time to roll out the corporate results. From the looks of things, the Spring earnings season is going to be a blockbuster for bulls and a backbreaker for the long-suffering bears.

The third round of stimulus checks continue to make their ways into the hands of hungry consumers in a nation tired of lockdowns and social-distancing. The near-capacity crowd at Monday's Texas Rangers' home opener in Arlington and crowded beaches in Florida are telling signs that the American public is more than ready to get back to something resembling normal, be it "new" or otherwise. There's never been a better time for the words "pent up demand" to roll off the lips of traders, speculators and investors, with hundreds of millions of Americans eager to get back to work, to school, to play, and to recreate.

It's true that the NASDAQ - usually the leading index - has taken a back seat to other gauges of American business productivity, it's equally true that the stocks largely representative of the newer, greener, technology-driven haven't been down for long and aren't far from records themselves. The NASDAQ made its last record close on February 12, when it settled at 14,095.47. After Monday's blast higher, driven by a blowout March jobs report, the NASDAQ is a little less than 400 points - or 2.8% from setting a new high mark. Earnings of the major tech players aren't due for release for another few weeks, but the overall market will likely drag everything higher as banks and consumer stocks take the lead in reporting.

Whether or not one buys into the recovery narrative, all Wall Street needs are positive earnings and promises of more money doled out by the Fed and the federal government to ramp gains to astronomical levels. While many consider stocks already massively overpriced, they remain the primary vehicle for wealth appreciation. When even the longest-term treasury bond is returning a paltry 2.36%, the appetite for stocks will remain strong and unsatisfied. If indeed stocks are bubbly and about to burst matters little to the investing class. They've made money from vapor before and the current equity environment is ripe for tantalizing expectations of stratospheric stock prices.

The Teslas, Googles, Apples and Amazons of the world will still attract enormous piles of capital regardless of their fundamental, underlying valuations. All the economics books and investing mantras have been throw out of 60-story windows. All that remains of what used to be known as market discipline and due diligence has been cast aside in this extend and pretend environment. Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the economy and the markets and there's not a single sign that the spigot is going to close any time soon. Those who believed the GFC of 2008-09 was the end of the Fed and the American economy failed to check with Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. They obviously have other plans in mind and as destructive as their radical print and spend policies to the long term health of the country may be, they are in charge and fueling the markets.

Economics is an odd science, maybe more of an art essentially, as theories come and go, some time-tested, others flying by night, but there's no mistaking that the world is caught up in a vortex of fiat money chasing real and imagined assets. Its not likely to end soon unless something equally revolutionary takes the place of non-stop QE, relentless printing, and the bailing out, cancellation or otherwise propping up of everything from major corporations to student debt.

Tradition be damned. This is a new age, and while it may not be "different this time," it sure fells like it is.

Enjoy the ride, but make sure to have an eye on the exit doors and alternative investments.

At the Close, Monday, April 5, 2021:
Dow: 33,527.19, +373.98 (+1.13%)
NASDAQ: 13,705.59, +225.49 (+1.67%)
S&P 500: 4,077.91, +58.04 (+1.44%)
NYSE: 15,870.34, +118.09 (+0.75%)

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