Biden's promise, just like everything else that comes out of this man's mouth, is ambiguous, inaccurate and misleading. It offered no significant plans - only objectives - on how this was going to be accomplished (hint: it won't be) other than the usual platitudes about more green jobs, a commitment to renewable energy, and reducing the use of fossil fuels. Like most political affairs, this one was full of hot air, suggesting that if politicians would, in the aggregate, shut up for a couple of years, the problem would be solved.
According to the White House "fact sheet" (honestly, it was difficult to find any "facts" at all, though there were plenty of promises and loads of political posturing), the target aims at 50-52 Percent Reduction in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Pollution from 2005 Levels in 2030. The key phrase missing from almost all news reports is highlighted (2005 levels).
In 2005, total gross U.S. greenhouse gas emissions were 7378.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
(MMT CO2 Eq).
In 2019 (latest data), total gross U.S. greenhouse gas emissions were 6,558.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
(MMT CO2 Eq).
Overall, net emissions decreased 13.0 percent from 2005 levels. So, Biden's team has a running start. To get to -50% from 2005, they need to lower emissions to 3,689.4 MMT CO2 Eq, which would be about a 43% reduction from the 2019 figures. Considering that 2020 was probably a net winner for the climate changers, since automobile traffic, factory output and many other greenhouse gas emitters were significantly lower because of all the lockdowns, restrictions, and stay-at-home mandates, the Biden administration's EPA will probably make some bogus claim about 2020 greenhouse gas reductions being down some seven to 13 percent from 2019. So, yes, more innuendo, ambiguity, misdirection and glad-handing all around to come.
But it's not all that simple. Here's an NOAA article claiming that despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020, and carbon dioxide levels are now higher than at anytime in the past 3.6 million years.
However, the very same article links to another article which claims that the economic recession was estimated to have reduced carbon emissions by about 7 percent during 2020. So, let's follow the science, which is apparently leading in opposite directions. All this stuff makes one's head spin.
For some perspective, here's Joakim Book of the American Institute for Economic Research on Zero Hedge with a view of how journalists and media distort the facts and findings on climate change (and just about everything else). The Zero Hedge version is the same as the original, but with funny cartoons and a lively discussion section following.
There are a number of scenarios. By 2030, Biden will likely be dead and buried and all of his mouthpieces, spokespersons, aides, and entourage will have moved on to other things, so nobody working at the White House today will have any accountability issues. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 10% or 15%, which could happen either due to population reduction (don't laugh, it's a thing!) or "green" measures, that's going to be enough for Democrats to call it a win, as in, "well, we're close, we tried." Like Obamacare, the upfront lies - "if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor" - will largely be overlooked down the road.
Advice to anybody worried about any of this: punt. It's not worth anybody's time or effort to get excited, depressed, or concerned about this or any other program coming out of the bogus white house and fake media. Remember, these are government programs. They're destined to fail or fall far short of their stated goals. Besides, there's a vested interest by researchers to conclude that global warming or climate change is really a problem, because their funding and livelihoods depend upon it, so the findings are subject to goal-seeking erros and mass delusions. We were supposed to be underwater by now. We're not. And if the world is supposedly getting hotter every day, how come the US had a major snowstorm in April?
Not to put to fine a point on it, the sudden resurrection of the climate change argument is more about politics and money than actual scientific data.
If you're interested, there's plenty of data. The links below offer a good place to start reading up on the government’s version of climate change. Warning: may cause nausea to conservatives, scientists, or anybody over the age of 60.
Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2019
Executive Summary [PDF]
In the financial world, it was a great week to be a trader or broker because stocks were flipping from red to green faster than pancakes at Waffle House. Headlines and algos produced a week of three down days and two to the upside. The losses on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday were offset by bounce-back gains Wednesday and Friday. Investors were thankful for rebounding trades but likely miffed over the losses, especially Thursday's, when the market suddenly slammed into reverse on rumors of a 39.5% capital gains tax suggestion coming from the Biden administration.
As it turns out, this particular FUD attack was put in play by Bloomberg, always acting at the behest of the Fed and other financial handlers. Because the proposed near-doubling of the capital gains tax turned out to be something Biden's team proposed months ago, the cynical view was that insiders on Capitol Hill and elsewhere made bank on the algo-moving story, shorting all the way down and buying back in on the way back up the following day.
That the losses Thursday were overcome by gains on Friday in all of the indices except the Dow Industrials speaks to the anguish over controlled markets and the pack of transparency caused by algorithms, front-running, spoofing, and massive dark pools operated by the largest brokerages and trading houses.
In the end, stocks and those who invest in them suffered what amounted to a flesh wounds. Small caps on the NYSE actually ended up slightly on the positive side for the week even though the roller coaster ride may have been unsettling along the way.
AT THE CLOSE, THURSDAY, APRIL 22, 2021:
Dow: 33,815.90, -321.41 (-0.94%)
NASDAQ: 13,818.41, -131.81 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 4,134.98, -38.44 (-0.92%)
NYSE: 16,030.62, -90.99 (-0.56%)
AT THE CLOSE, FRIDAY, APRIL 23, 2021:
Dow: 34,043.49, +227.59 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 14,016.81, +198.39 (+1.44%)
S&P 500: 4,180.17, +45.19 (+1.09%)
NYSE: 16,206.00, +175.38 (+1.09%)
FOR THE WEEK:
Dow: -157.18 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: -35.53 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: -5.30 (-0.13%)
NYSE: +19.71 (+0.12%)
While stocks were getting bumped and pushed higher and lower, fixed income flat-lined. At the long end of the treasury complex, yield on the 30-year bond round-tripped a whole five basis points, finishing the week one bip lower than the prior Friday, at 2.25%. The 10-year note yield was similar, with a four basis point range resulting in a loss of one basis point, to 1.58%. Bills of one to six months duration were pressed as low as possible, with the 30-day bill yielding 0.1%, the six-month, 0.3%.
From all appearances, the Fed has been able to exert some manner of yield curve control on agency-issued debt, sparking a rally in the long-dated maturities off the scary high yields from a month ago. In mid to late March, the 30-year yield was as high as 2.45%, the 10-year pumped as high as 1.74%. Jawboning the inflation fright out of bonds was child's play for Fed officials. All they had to do was convince the entire planet that those inflationary signals coming from the commodity space (especially lumber and base metals) and grocery prices (think ground beef at $4.95 a pound and up, plus "shrink-flation" in packaged consumables) were either transitory or temporary, two words which are like a magic potion in the world of central bank counterfeiting.
Now that the Fed has proven capable of keeping the lid on bond yields, thanks to a lapse in government hand-outs (no new stimulus proposals, yet) and some slight apparent return to almost normal conditions in the real world, in some places, in a fragmented, localized manner, bonds can continue on their path to zero-boundness or the passé euro-branded negative rate structure. In sympathy, the dollar came under pressure against most other fiats as the planet winds down the currency debasement road to monetary hell.
In keeping with the no-inflation containment theme, oil prices were wrangled down over the past seven days, with WTI crude dropping from $63.13 a barrel to as low as $61.35, finishing up Friday at $62.14, down just over a buck for the week. There was little to no further pain at the pump. In the United States, drivers don't appear to be concerned with fuel prices hovering around a national average of $2.89 a gallon, even though it is the highest in more than a year and up by more than a dollar from this time a year ago.
The matter falls to the cost of extraction across the universe of drillers and riggers. At $60+ a barrel, even most shale drillers can turn a profit, putting the current price somewhere in "Goldilocks" territory, not too high, nor too low, but just right. Unless there's a sudden demand spike - which could be manufactured due to pent-up vacation demand by locked down US citizens - the current range just above $60 may persist into the summer driving season, though the potential for profit-driven price hikes cannot be ruled out in the current context of mass control.
While stocks, bonds, and crude oil were forging a bridge to an unchanged shoreline, the case in cryptocurrencies was more panic-stricken, as Bitcoin continued to tumble off new highs made just days prior. It was April 14 when Bitcoin priced at a record high of $64,899. Since then the world's original crypto has fallen off a proverbial cyber-cliff, bending to a low of $47,464 as of Friday night (4/23).
There have been two major drawdowns over the past ten days for Bitcoin, both occurring, for whatever reason, on, or close to, the weekends. The first, which saw the price plummet from $60,000 to $53,000 in hours, happened over last Saturday night (4/17) into Sunday morning (4.18). The latest fallout - from $54,860 to $47,464 - was this past Thursday into Friday.
If this becomes a trend, a drop from around $48,000 to somewhere in a range of $41,000 to $42,000 could be in the offing. For now, Bitcoin is holding in a range between $48,000 and $51,000 over the past 24 hours. Directionally, the trend is lower, which shouldn't come as a surprise. Moves of 18% to 30% in a tight time frame are not unusual in the crypto space. Putting the recent pullback into perspective, six months ago - October, 2020 - Bitcoin was trending in a range between $11,000 and $13,000. The rise to the recent high was a 500-600% move. Some profits are being taken, not unexpectedly.
Precious metals found midweek upside by Wednesday only to be squelched by a wicked selloff Thursday and Friday. Gold ended the prior week (4/16) at $1782.50, moved as high as $1793.90, only to close out the week in the red, at $1,778.18. Silver was also bounced around, starting from Sunday's price of $25.97 the troy ounce to as high as $26.55 on Wednesday, only to be slammed to a loss at $25.57 by week's end.
The continuing sideways to lower pricing in the futures market of gold and silver has prompted a call to arms by Sprott Money's Craig Hemke, who penned a note on the site's blog, aligning himself with the reddit group r/WallStreetSilver, which has been in the process of trying to squeeze the COMEX and LBMA of their existing stocks of 1000-ounce bars stored mostly in London vaults.
Hemke's post, "A Time To Fight Back", appeared on Tuesday, April 20, and caught the attention of many in the precious metals community. In it, he makes an impassioned plea to the redditers and others to purchase 100 ounces of physical silver on May 1, ten years to the date of the near-fatal cramdown in silver that kicked off a nearly decade-long bear market.
As well-intentioned as Hemke's proposal may have been, there are two major points of contention in his plan. First, the reddit crowd and other silver stackers have never stopped buying physical silver since the first raid back in February. Second, May 1 is a Saturday. In addition to it being the date for the annual "Run for the Roses" Kentucky Derby, the futures markets are closed. Thus any mass buying spree on that day would give the LBMA and COMEX all day Sunday to plot any counter attack, should one even be appropriate.
Perhaps, Hemke might have chosen not to let his emotions rule his thinking by timing the assault to the day of a prior massacre, but spread the buying out over time. Perhaps the late week drawdown in silver - and gold - was a reaction or warning shot by the bullion banks. They're not accustomed to being challenged on social media or elsewhere and they can fight dirty. That's well known. Whatever the case, the battle has been re-engaged and this coming week may be one for the History Channel.
Closing out the WEEKEND WRAP, here are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items purchased on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 33.29 / 49.95 / 41.41 / 41.45
1 oz silver bar: 35.00 / 53.49 / 42.79 / 40.50
1 oz gold coin: 1,904.15 / 2,155.77 / 1,981.67 / 1,977.96
1 oz gold bar: 1,854.25 / 1,885.49 / 1,873.05 / 1,872.20
The key takeaways from this week's survey are that sales are brisk, many non-numismatic one ounce gold coins have come out of hiding and are fetching exceptionally good prices, the average premium more than $100 higher than one ounce gold bars, whose prices are routinely uniform, in a $31 range, whereas gold coins are spread out over a $250 range. It's more than apparent that gold coins are more highly valued to investors than similarly-weighted bars. Prices for coins are higher this week than at any time back to February. The average and median prices for gold bars was down slightly from the prior week.
Silver held up well, despite the drop on the COMEX leading into the weekend. The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) did suffer a loss, dropping from $42.99 down to $41.54. The benchmark remains above $40 a troy ounce for the 12th consecutive week.
A final word: Many listed companies report earnings this week. Among the big names putting out first quarter results are Tesla (TSLA), General Electric (GE), AMD (AMD), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Yum Brands (YUM), eBay (EBAY), Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald's (MCD), Amazon (AMZN), Merck (MRK), Twitter (TWTR), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and AstraZeneca (AZN).
There's also a meeting of the FOMC of the Federal Reserve, Tuesday and Wednesday, with a press conference following the policy rate decision after 2:00 pm ET, Wednesday.
OK, that's it. Have a good week, everybody.
AT THE CLOSE, FRIDAY, APRIL 23, 2021:
Dow: 34,043.49, +227.59 (+0.67%)
NASDAQ: 14,016.81, +198.39 (+1.44%)
S&P 500: 4,180.17, +45.19 (+1.09%)
NYSE: 16,206.00, +175.38 (+1.09%)
FOR THE WEEK:
Dow: -157.18 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: -35.53 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: -5.30 (-0.13%)
NYSE: +19.71 (+0.12%)
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