Whispers of a million jobs created in the month of March were nearly matched when the official BLS figures were announced Friday morning. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March, with the unemployment rate edging down from 6.2 to 6.0 percent. The gains were led by leisure and entertainment (+280,000), education (+190,000), and construction (110,000), fueled by the rapid decline of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over the past two months as states and municipalities rolled back lockdowns and other restrictive measures.
While the March results were somewhat a foregone conclusion, the gains (January and February were revised higher, by 67,000 and 89,000, respectively) left the labor force participation rate at 61.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than February, 2020, prior to pandemic-related forced shutdowns, furloughs, and layoffs, still historically below trend and not showing any signs of returning to more productive and expansive levels above 65%. The last time the participation rate exceeded 65% was in April, 2010 (65.2%). The economy may well be on the mend, but it is nowhere near full recovery.
Still, the good news should keep stocks at or near all-time highs. Stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits are helping fuel stock market gains. With the narrative firmly in the "recovery" camp, any positive news on employment should keep the punch bowl full and the party swinging.
On the long end of the treasury complex, prices continued their slump as rates remained elevated. Higher interest rates on 10-year and 30-year securities have been in a bear market since the beginning of 2021, accelerating in February and March. At the end of January, the 10-year note yielded 1.11% and the 30-year, 1.87. Compare to Friday's closing figures of 1.72% on the 10-year and 2.35% on the 30, the 10-year note up five basis points from a week before and the 30-year down two.
Investors seem to be not particularly keen on anything but stocks as bonds, oil, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are either in extended slumps or just marking time recently.
Oil spent another week trying to figure out a correct pricing model, weighing OPEC+ production cuts against a return to lockdown conditions in parts of Europe. In North America, business is reopening and Asian countries have largely beaten back the scourge outside of India and Indonesia, two high-population nations. Cases and conditions in those two countries appear to be moving in opposite directions, however. Indonesia's cases are elevated over the past 10 days but still down from the highs of the summer and fall of 2020. Cases in India, however, are still rising.
The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil fell from $61.56 on Monday to a low of $59.16 on Wednesday, only to rally back to $61.24 as of the New York close on Thursday. Oil futures remain in backwardation, with spot higher than future prices.
Prices for gas at the pump remain high across the United States, with far Western states all reporting average prices above $3.00 a gallon in Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Alaska, Hawaii, and California, which leads the way at a whopping $3.92 per gallon, according to Triple A. Also joining the $3.00+ brigade is Illinois, at an average price of $3.08. The lowest price is found in Mississippi, at $2.59.
Cryptos crept along during the week, though Etherium continued to lead Bitcoin. Ether ramped to an all-time high of $2145 on Saturday, since then falling back about five percent, to around $2050. Remarkably, Etherium is up more than 30% in the past 30 days. For its part, Bitcoin continues backing off from all-time highs, currently trading around $57,500 after rocketing as high as $61.788 earlier in March. Despite its recent vacillation, it's still up nearly 15% over the past 30 days, a figure the no-coiners fail to appreciate.
During the week, gold was beaten down as low as $1685 per ounce on Tuesday, but strong rallies on Wednesday and Thursday left it at $1729.80. Silver showed a similar pattern, knocked down below $24.00 per ounce on Tuesday, but rallying back to $24.97 as of Thursday. It was still down overall for the week, having closed the prior Friday (3/26) at $25.39.
Futures markets were closed Friday and through the weekend. They will reopen at 6:00 pm ET Sunday.
Here are the most recent prices paid for common one ounce gold and silver items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 34.00 / 49.00 / 42.54 / 42.85
1 oz silver bar: 38.10 / 48.88 / 42.17 / 41.00
1 oz gold coin: 1,840.00 / 1,956.00 / 1,893.83 / 1,877.49
1 oz gold bar: 1,819.15 / 1,847.29 / 1,833.42 / 1,831.95
There was little change over the past week to prices, though overall, our survey found slightly lower prices across the gold spectrum with silver a little on the upside. Rumors of shortages remain rampant, with dealers still commanding significant premiums over spot. Shipping delays of a few days to a few weeks and minimum purchases of $199 or higher to qualify for shipping discounts are commonplace with all online retailers.
Money Daily's proprietary Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) calculates out to $42.14, which is up from the prior two weeks ($41.77, 3/28, and $41.85, 3/21).
This being Easter Sunday, kindness is extended to readers and critics alike, ending commentary here.
Spend some time with friends and family. You've earned it.
Happy Easter.
At the Close, Thursday, April 1, 2021:
Dow: 33,153.21, +171.66 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 13,480.11, +233.23 (+1.76%)
S&P 500: 4,019.87, +46.98 (+1.18%)
NYSE: 15,752.24, +150.50 (+0.96%)
For the Week:
Dow: +80.33 (+0.24%)
NASDAQ: +341.38 (+2.60%)
S&P 500: +45.33 (+1.14%)
NYSE: +69.70 (+0.44%)
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