Normally, the first Friday of the month would offer the BLS release of non-farm payroll data for the prior month, but, with the government shutdown now at 38 days and counting, the BLS staff has been furloughed and all of the usual data drops simply aren't happening.
Oddly enough, the president saw fit to keep some of the number-crunchers working as the shutdown began. Back on October 24, a skeleton crew produced the September CPI figures, which showed an uptick of inflation to an annual rate of 3.0% and a monthly increase of 0.3%. The numbers were considered important enough to keep market-watchers happy, and it certainly did the trick, as the interpretation was supposedly that since the figures were below Wall Street's expectations, everything was just fine, or, the higher numbers gave the Fed a solid rationale to lower the federal funds rate, which they did the following Wednesday. Stocks were up on the 24th, a Friday. After the Fed's rate hike, stocks were satiated to a degree, though there was disappointment when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed an opinion putting a further 0.25% rate cut in December in doubt.
So, for the second month in a row, there will be no non-farm payroll report, which, in a way, is refreshing, since the BLS data is usually so corrupted and massaged, it normally gets revised the following month, and again, on an annual basis, usually resulting in job numbers well below those originally reported. The BLS has been a great boon to politicians wishing to show a strong, vibrant U.S. economy when the reality is often vastly different.
Thus, interested parties had to rely on the ADP Employment Report for October, released on Wednesday, which showed an uptick in private employment to 42,000, with small and mid-sized companies shedding jobs and companies with more than 500 employees adding.
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."-- Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP
As the government remains in shutdown mode, Senate Democrats have been huddling, seeking to find a suitable solution to reopen the government without betraying their priorities. The current scuttlebutt has Republican leader, John Thune, calling for a 15th vote on the House bill on Friday. The Democrats have reportedly culled together a plan that would make changes to the House bill, that, if passed, would require the new legislation to go back to the House for reconciliation. It's likely, even if something comes of this new tactic today, over the weekend, or early next week, that the government might reopen, but there's uncertainty that the House would agree. They've been out of session since late September, and Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly said that he won't reconvene the chamber until the Senate passes the bill already before them. Changes to the bill, would, naturally, force the Speaker to call the House back to session.
With all that baggage, the shutdown is beginning to affect stocks and the general economy. 40 airports have already announced a reduction in the number of arrivals and departures due to staffing problems with unpaid air-traffic controllers. SNAP, the food stamps program, still has not been funded for November, though President Trump has agreed to comply with a court order forcing him to release contingency funds. However, the Agriculture Department, which handles the program, says its funds will only cover about two-thirds of the usual benefits and that making the changes to millions of food stamp accounts at the state level will take some time. Meanwhile, food banks are being overwhelmed across the country, as SNAP recipients have been forced to seek hand-outs elsewhere.
At the same time, there are roughly 750,000 federal employees who have missed paychecks since early October, putting strain on their personal lives and family budgets. The military is being funded with money that was earmarked for other projects, which, for the time being, are on hold, the money being used to pay soldiers, sailors, airmen, and civilian military contractors.
Those issues are beginning to become concerning to Wall Street, as the flow of capital is being negatively affected. Adding to their anguish are concerns that the AI boom may have resulted in some overpricing of tech stocks (no, really?). The air is slowly beginning to come out of the tech bubble. Stocks have suffered this week especially.
Through Thursday's close, the Dow Industrials were down 650 points for the week; the NASDAQ had shed nearly three percent, or, 670 points; and the S&P 500 was down 120 points. A few Mag7 stocks were under pressure. Meta Platforms (META) is off 4.5% through Thursday's close; Nvidia (NVDA) is off by more than seven percent.
As the opening bell approaches for the final session of the week, things aren't looking very rosy for the Wall Street faithful. Just beofre 9:00 am ET, Dow futures are down 140 points, NASDAQ futures are lower by 176, and S&P futures are down 31.
Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 again this morning after a few days of "whale boating" took the price off Wednesday’s lows just above $99,000 back up to $104,000 and change. Social media sites, especially X, have been inundated with all manner of postings featuring Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, touting bitcoin projections of anywhere from $400,000 to over a million dollars within months or by 2030. The lid is off the crypto Pandora's Box. Along with declines of close to 20% for bitcoin, other crypto coins have fallen even further over the past month, with Ether down 28%, and Cardano off $39%.
WTI crude oil continues to weaken as the prospect for higher prices due to sanctions against Russian oil companies has failed to scare anybody. China and India have continued uninterrupted purchases of Russian crude. The U.S. and European Union gambit - like all of the previous 17 tranches of sanctions - has failed miserably. WTI crude is holding around $60/barrel, but prospects for higher prices are slim to none.
Gold and silver are showing showing resilience, with gold back above $4,000 and silver closing in again on $50, after the U.S. announced that silver was added to the strategic metals list and China placed limits on silver exports.
Things are beginning to get interesting, so this may not be the optimal time to launch an invasion on Venezuela.
At the Close, Thursday, November 6, 2025:
Dow: 46,912.30, -398.70 (-0.84%)
NASDAQ: 23,053.99, -445.80 (-1.90%)
S&P 500: 6,720.32, -75.97 (-1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 21,288.44, -73.13 (-0.34%)
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