WEEKEND WRAP: Government Shutdown Persists, Day 33; Fed Delivers Rate Cut with No Promises; SNAP Benefits in Limbo

The stock market managed to escape what is traditionally the month for crashes - October - unscathed.

Stocks closed out the last week of the month with the usual upside drift, though end of session Friday was a little frightful (it was Halloween, after all), as the major indices were down more than 50% from the day's highs.

The Dow was particularly amusing, making the high of the session 15 minutes before the close, 47,718.38, only to finish about 150 points lower, 47,562.87, for a paltry gain of just 40 points.

Now that it's November and Daylight Savings Time has been turned off, clocks surrendering an hour to the will of the government and nature, the Fed rate cut in the books, and no food stamps for some 40-42 million Americans (former president Obama, who apparently wishes more of a welfare state, put the number at 47 million. Math not his strong suit).

Riots and looting haven't begun in earnest, or, at least the mainstream media isn't reporting any. Hungry people can become angry people pretty quickly, but, nobody's actually run out of food yet. Food pantries and other charitable types have stepped in to fill the void... and the stomachs. Congress refuses to move on the issue, two courts demand that the Trump administration release emergency funds to recharge the EBT cards, and the president cynically asked the court for specifics.

Somewhere along the line, there's likely to be a scapegoat uttering something along the lines of Marie Antoinette's infamous expression of disdain for common folk, "let them eat cake." It's probably going to be Senate Democrats, who refuse to pass a continuing resolution already approved by the House, though it could be Senate Republicans, who refuse to end the filibuster rule that requires a 60-vote majority for cloture, and pass the CR without Democrat votes. It could even be President Trump.

There is going to be pain, blowback, and eventually, though it could take years and come in odd ways, retribution.

In any case, the government remains on shutdown, now into its 33rd day, soon to become the longest of government shutdowns. There is a loud chorus of anarchists hoping it remains closed permanently, though that is unlikely to happen. Sooner or later, the congress will come to the realization that they can't adequately hurt American citizens and loot the treasury without some kind of formal legislation. They will pass some kind of funding bill, but, their reputation already in tatters, will be irreparably damaged, the public certain they are nothing more than well-attired scoundrels and thugs.

Stocks

Stocks went up. Nothing new about that. The Shiller PE (CAPE) ended the week at 40.88, not quite the highest ever (44.19, November 1999).

The week ahead will feature another basket of earnings reports from widely held companies. Here's a partial list:

Monday, November 3: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), FreshPet (FRPT), Cipher Mining (CIFR); (after close) Palantir (PLTR), hims hers (HIMS), Clorox (CLX), Goodyear Tire (GT)

Tuesday, November 4: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), British Petroeum (BP) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Astera Labs (ALAB), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Beyond Meat (BYND)

Wednesday, November 5: (before open)Humana (HUM), Brinks (BCO), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Mcdonald's (MCD) ; (after close) AMC (AMC), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Robinhood (HOOD), Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, November 6: (before open) ConocoPhillips (COP), AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), Warner Brothers Discovery ((WBD); (after close) Opendoor (OPEN), Draft Kings (DKNG), Air B&B (ABNB)

Friday, November 7: (before open) Wedny's (WEN), Fluor (FLR), Six Flags (FUN), Duke Energy (DUK), Constellation (CEG)

As it always does, Berkshire Hathaway jumped the shark with it's earnings release on Saturday. Warren Buffett's holding company continues to eschew buybacks of its own stock, remains a net seller of stocks and increased its cash position to more than $382 billion while improving profits for the third quarter, beating estimates.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/26/2025	4.22	4.20	4.17	4.02	4.00	3.83	3.67
10/03/2025	4.24	4.17	4.11	4.03	3.96	3.82	3.64
10/10/2025	4.19	4.16	4.10	4.02	3.96	3.81	3.60
10/17/2025	4.18	4.15	4.08	4.00	3.95	3.79	3.56
10/24/2025	4.11	4.06	4.02	3.93	3.89	3.76	3.58
10/31/2025	4.06	4.02	4.04	3.89	3.87	3.79	3.70

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/26/2025	3.63	3.66	3.76	3.96	4.20	4.74	4.77
10/03/2025	3.58	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.13	4.69	4.71
10/10/2025	3.52	3.52	3.65	3.83	4.05	4.60	4.63
10/17/2025	3.46	3.47	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.58	4.60
10/24/2025	3.48	3.49	3.61	3.79	4.02	4.56	4.59
10/31/2025	3.60	3.60	3.71	3.89	4.11	4.65	4.67

The Fed delivered on the 0.25% cut to the federal funds target rate, though Chairman Powell refused to confirm another such cut in December, which sent the major indices into a temporary nose-dive. As has happened in the past, while short-term bills witnessed yield declines, longer maturities were higher, with the 10-year up nine basis points and the 30-year bond yield up eight. Two year yields were up 12 basis points, though the yield curve, as a whole, is proceeding to steepen, a positive development.

2s-10s spreads dropped to +51 while full spectrum roared up to +61, the highest since July. Demand for treasuries was shaky.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61

Oil/Gas

President Trump and Europe's sanctions on Russian oil will prove to be completely ineffective, as WTI crude closed out the week at $60.88, after rallying to $61.44 the week prior. There simply isn't anything the U.S. or E.U. can do about an oil glut and BRICS countries - especially India and China - will continue to buy Russian oil regardless of potential penalties or knuckle-thumping by the West.

The temporary rise in oil prices had little effect at the pump, with the U.S. national average down a penny, at $3.02, according to Gasbuddy.com.

California remains the priciest, at $4.66 per gallon, up seven cents, followed by Washington ($4.29), lower by six cents on the week. Oregon ($3.85), was down another eight cents on the week, after a flirtation with $4.00. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma ($2.50) the lowest, followed by Texas ($2.51), Mississippi and Arkansas both at $2.56. Louisiana ($2.57) and Alabama ($2.62) follow. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.75 (Georgia), with Florida the exception, at $2.95, up a nickel.

Relief continued in the Northeast, where most states were under $3.00, except for Pennsylvania ($3.21), New York ($3.08) and Vermont ($3.07), and Maine ($3.01).

Illinois ($3.20) was the only Midwest state above $3.00. Kentucky was lowest, at $2.67.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in 35 states, up three from last week.

Bitcoin (fake)

This week: $110,406.10
Last week: $113,471.40
2 weeks ago: $106,748.23
6 months ago: $96,432.45
One year ago: $68,434.65
Five years ago: $16,078.98

Bitcoin, which was supposed to rally to $200,000, $400,000 and beyond, was down for the week. The charts say $70,000 or lower in the near term.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 82.16; last week: 84.54

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 10/3: $3,912.10
Gold price 10/10: $4,035.50
Gold price 10/17: $4,267.90
Gold price 10/24: $4,126.90
Gold price 10/31: $4,013.40

Silver price 10/3: $47.97
Silver price 10/10: $47.51
Silver price 10/17: $50.63
Silver price 10/24: $48.41
Silver price 10/31: $48.25

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 10/17: $4250.59
Gold 10/24: $4110.63
Gold 10/31: $3997.10

Silver 10/17: $51.88
Silver 10/24: $48.59
Silver 10/31: $48.65

(Kitko)
Gold 10/19: Bid: $4,250.80; Ask: $4,252.80
Gold 10/26: Bid: $4,111.20; Ask: $4,113.20
Gold 10/31: Bid: $4001.10; Ask: $4,003.10

Silver 10/19: Bid: $51.86; Ask: $51.98
Silver 10/26: Bid: $48.53; Ask: $48.65
Silver 10/31: Bid: $48.60; Ask: $48.72

Gold and silver were under pressure, though not as significantly as the week prior. Prices for precious metals are back to where they were three weeks ago - and slightly above in the case of silver - indicating that the short-term suppression measures were very weak-handed.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	49.88	60.00	55.78	55.99
1 oz silver bar:	50.69	64.99	55.98	56.98
1 oz gold coin:	4,080.22	4,457.50	4,309.57	4,287.50
1 oz gold bar:	4,079.00	4,277.50	4,221.20	4,233.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained slightly over the week, to $56.18, a a gain of six cents from the October 26 price of $56.12 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add premia to spot.

WEEKEND WRAP

Go get some food while its still available.

At the Close, Friday, October 31, 2025:
Dow: 47,562.87, +40.75 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,724.96, +143.81 (+0.61)
S&P 500: 6,840.20, +17.86 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 21,459.58, +8.58 (+0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.75 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: +520.09 (+2.24%)
S&P 500: +48.51 (+0.71%)
NYSE Composite: -238.48 (-1.10%)
Dow Transports: +435.51 (+2.82%)

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