End of Empire Economics: Tariffs, Piracy, Tech, Power Grid Generation, AI, Refund Checks, GDP, Debt, and Borrowing; Silver Soars to Record High; 3Q GDP Arrives Tuesday

Sick of it all yet?

As the empire of lies sinks slowly into the morass of unchecked criminality, lost economic data, doctored files, and still, NOT A SINGLE PROSECUTION OF ANY ELECTED OFFICIAL IN WASHINGTON D.C., Americans are quietly separating themselves from all association with government, banking, and for some, reality itself.

It has become, especially over the past five years, increasingly difficult for sane people to live ordinary lives in the United States. In some European countries, it's even worse. People are jailed for criticizing government policies, Islam, Ukraine, transgenderism or anything else the modern-day fascists in the UK, France, and especially Germany can deem hate speech or simply disallowed speech.

Next, thought crimes.

Gold and silver continue to send a message that few are capable of deciphering. The money, the almighty dollar, trillions conjured out of thin air, is failing. Grocery shopping alone will verify that fact. In the meantime, the president boasts, congress rots from within, and the institutions that were once revered by the public - Treasury, the Federal Reserve, State Department, and others - are reviled as mere facades, dishonest representations in denial of America's decline.

This week the financial markets gleefully welcomed CPI results from October and November that showed inflation ebbing, even though there was no actual data presented for those two months. Inflation, according to the most on-their-face bogus reports ever from the BLS - which is saying a lot coming from those serially-incorrect number crunchers - fell on an annual basis from 3.0% to 2.7%. While that may be all fine and dandy, real world experience reads differently.

The government and media don't want Americans to read or see or hear about record numbers of small business bankruptcies, rapidly increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies and defaults, evictions, student loan defaults, and the breakdown of the consumer economy. No, they want your focus to be on tariffs, or Russia, or China, the sworn enemies of the deep state which should be yours as well.

“War is when the government tells us who the enemy is. Revolution is when we figure it out for ourselves.” — Benjamin Franklin

Here are just a few nuggets:

U.S. households collectively carry about $18.6 trillion in total debt, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

About 19.17 percent of the people in Minnesota had credit card accounts that were delinquent in the second quarter. That's nearly one in five.

Ameicans are still awaiting third quarter GDP results, now that the fourth quarter is nearly over. The first look arrives Tuesday, if one is to believe the BEA:

BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months:

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, originally scheduled during October, was canceled.

Dec. 23: Initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, including the preliminary estimate of corporate profits (replaces the typical advance and second estimates).

Jan. 22: Updated estimate (replaces the typical third estimate).

GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 will be rescheduled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Jan. 29, 2026. Sufficient source data will not be available in time for the original release date.

Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 3rd Quarter 2025 will be released on Jan. 23, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Dec. 22.

If 3rd quarter GDP isn't at least three percent (3.0%), look out below, but there's reason to believe it will come in very close to that figure, because the preferred narrative requires growth, whether there is or isn't any. With the first quarter of 2025 at -0.6, and the second quarter boasting growth of 3.8%, even if Q3 and Q4 come in at 3.0% each, that still only gets full year GDP to 2.3%, which is pretty dull, though it does provide a great jumping off point for 2026 and the president's goal of keeping the House and Senate in the midterms. Barring shutdowns or disruptions, the economic releases for 1Q, 2Q, and the initial estimate for 3Q 2026 will be out prior to the November elections.

Bankruptcies are up across-the-board in the U.S.:

According to data through November from Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, 2,221 companies had sought temporary protection from creditors or had simply ceased operations under Subchapter V rules. Those measures were created in 2019 to make it easier for small businesses to declare bankruptcy. That 11-month total for 2025 was 8 percent higher than the number of the same filings for all of 2024.

More broadly, bankruptcies filed by U.S. companies of all sizes increased by nearly 6 percent during the 12 months that ended September 30, according to the quarterly report by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. When non-business filings were added, the tally reached 557,376, or 10.6 percent more than the year before — the highest volume since 2020.

The government's tariff revenues in November ticked down for the first time since President Trump began implementing his historic duties, according to new totals from the US Treasury Department.

The agency's monthly statement for November, released on Wednesday, saw a reading of $30.76 billion in customs duties collected, following an October reading of $31.35 billion.

In a recent address, President Trump claimed to be using tariff revenues to send members of the military a check for $1,776, a "warrior dividend", when actually, the money was already appropriated by congress in the form of military housing subsidies. The president just spent more money the government doesn't have.

Not to sound all gloom and doom, prices will come down, because hyperinflation is normally followed by a general economic depression.

In the meantime, the U.S. military is busy rounding up sanctioned oil tankers near Venezuela. On Saturday, a second tanker was seized by the U.S. Coast Guard, while the first one, known as "the Skipper" (and Gilligan, too?) is headed to Galveston, ostensibly, its oil to be offloaded and sent to U.S. refineries. This is great for drivers, who want to see prices at the pump drop even further. Using stolen oil - which, according to the president's very own pretzel logic, was stolen from the United States even though it came from beneath Venezuelan soil - helps Make America Great Again (MAGA).

Theft and high seas piracy have made a big comeback at the end of 2025, a trend which is likely to continue in 2026. One wonders why anybody would have to steal oil, though, being there's a huge glut on world markets. Americans are told that fishing boats are blown to smithereens, but oil tankers are seized, because, besides making a huge mess in the ocean, that oil was going to be used to support "narco-terrorism", whatever that is. Besides, Venezuela's president Maduro is a bad guy, so is Putin, but Xi Jinping, well, he's just "tough."

Treasury Secretary Bessent was out boasting about how Americans would be getting large tax refunds in 2026, thanks to Trump's economic policies. While that certainly should be the case, taxpayers need to be reminded that their refunds are money they unwittingly loaned to the government interest-free, which is a better deal than the Treasury Department gets from the Federal Reserve, foreigners, primary dealers and private sources, which buys government debt at about four percent.

Lately, all the talk has been about AI, data centers, enhanced power generation and grid expansion. Gas generators are filling the void until utilities can ramp up to meet increasing data center needs. Expanding and updating the U.S. electric grid is long overdue. Who knew all it took was big tech to discover they needed more power to get it done. This is an area of positive development.

On the backend of this massive AI/tech/power buildout there remains plenty of doubt about eventual return of capital. Big tech is shelling out hundreds of billions to facilitate their AI dreams, though nobody has yet made any realistic case for revenue even coming close to costs.

With congress in recess until around January 6, there was no resolution on expiring health care subsidies, which were supposedly the whole point of shutting down the government from the first of October to mid-November. If healthcare still isn't resolved to Democrat party satisfaction, why is there no screaming and yelling in congress? That seems to make the point all by itself. The government shutdown was planned by both parties specifically to hide horrific economic conditions from the American public, and they've succeeded, with another shutdown possible at the end of January, when the money they approved in November runs out. They'll need another continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown and another round of lost or misplaced economic data, which seems to be the whole point.

At the end of the day, the government still cannot control spending. The federal deficit will come in close to $2 trillion this year, despite claims that tariff revenue will cut into that gaping hole. Revenue from tariffs will amount to roughly $300-400 billion, a drop in the bucket of the $7 trillion in government spending. Further, if individual income taxes are down, all the tariffs accomplish is moving money from one source to another. The government gets tariffs, the people pay more for goods and services, but get a tax break. At best, it's a wash.

With U.S. government debt growing at a rate of about $3 million a minute ($180 million an hour, $4.3 billion a day), the federal debt should reach $40 trillion right around the 2026 midterm elections. Will any of the candidates for Senate or House seats make it an issue? Unlikely, since they're all partly to blame for it, passing spending resolutions uncovered by revenue, continuing to borrow like spendthrift sailors on shore leave.

Eventually, all that debt is supposed to be paid back, but it never will be. At some point, people notice, other countries notice, and the U.S. can't just go on bullying and borrowing. In the distance, a piper is playing and when he arrives, he will want to be paid.

Stocks

Stocks had a ho-hum week thanks to completely bogus numbers from the BLS, which cited inflation (CPI) falling from 3.0% to 2.7% on an annualized basis. The bean conters who failed to provide data for October and November somehow managed to conjure up a number that would be palatable to the government and Wall Street, which lapped it up like kittens on buttermilk. Stocks were down significantly through Wednesday, but perked right up on giddy anti-infaltion talk.

Still, gains for the week were negligible on the NASDAQ and S&P with the Composite and Dow lower. Thus far in December stocks haven't had much to cheer about, with the Dow the only major to the upside, about 418 points, the NASDAQ down 60 and the S&P off 22. There are seven trading days left in the year. For all you Grinches and Scrooges, Christmas is Thursday and the market is closed. Stocks will trade only until 1:00 pm ET on Wednesday, December 24 (Christmas Eve).

The Dow Jones Transportation Average continued to flirt with its all-time high (17,754.38, November 25, 2024), closing at 17620.19 on December 11 and since has pulled back, closing at 17557.96 on Friday. This keeps the three or four extant Dow Theorists remaining in the camp that believes the rally on the Industrials is simply fairy dust and not indicative of a primary trend, which remains bearish since the Transports have not confirmed the change in primary trend. The transports are notably well above their 50-day moving average while the others are nestled just above theirs.

While they may be technically right, they've managed to miss out on about 4,000 points on the industrials since the end of November, 2024, which was when the Transports peaked and retreated. Should the Trannies tack on another 200 or so points and hold them, there might be reason to believe that stocks will be off to the races in 2026. The highly anticipated "Santa Rally" which usually occurs the last two weeks of the year may be highly dependent on how well the BEA can fake 3rd quarter GDP on Tuesday.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/14/2025	4.04	4.02	4.01	3.95	3.88	3.80	3.70
11/21/2025	4.03	4.01	4.00	3.90	3.84	3.75	3.62
11/28/2025	4.05	3.97	3.99	3.88	3.86	3.74	3.61
12/05/2025	3.82	3.78	3.77	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.61
12/12/2025	3.76	3.75	3.75	3.63	3.64	3.58	3.54
12/19/2025	3.71	3.71	3.72	3.62	3.64	3.60	3.51

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/14/2025	3.62	3.61	3.74	3.92	4.14	4.73	4.74
11/21/2025	3.51	3.50	3.62	3.82	4.06	4.67	4.71
11/28/2025	3.47	3.49	3.59	3.78	4.02	4.62	4.67
12/05/2025	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.90	4.14	4.75	4.79
12/12/2025	3.52	3.58	3.75	3.95	4.19	4.82	4.85
12/19/2025	3.48	3.53	3.70	3.91	4.16	4.77	4.82

Yields were static for the week, with the only discernible movement in notes, lower by three to five basis points on the week between 2-year and 10-year maturities.

With no commitment by the Fed to do anything in January in terms of cutting rates, the entire yield curve still suffers from inversion, as 1-month and 5-year yields are essentially the same. Spreads widened slightly, with full spectrum at +111 and 2s-10s at +68, both long-term highs, making loan origination more art than science and completely selective, requiring diligence and high credit-worthiness.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111

Oil/Gas

WTI crude closed out the week at $56.54, down almost a buck from last week's $57.53, but not before cratering to $54.97 on Tuesday. Oil continues to resist buying in on the economic expansion narrative. There's oversupply everywhere, indicative of slowing economies.

The U.S. national average for gas at the pump fell to $2.82, the lowest price in roughly five years and another seven cents lower than the prior week, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current climate, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term.

California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, at $4.27 per gallon, down 8 cents on the week and 39 cents over the past five weeks, followed by Washington ($3.92), leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club for the first time in two years. Oregon ($3.48), was down 10 cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding steady at $2.24, up just one cent from last week's multi-year low. Arkansas ($2.35) and Colorado ($2.37) were nearby. Louisiana ($2.40), Mississippi ($2.42) and Texas ($2.43) follow, each marginally lower. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.71 with the exception of Florida ($2.86).

In the Northeast, prices remain slightly elevated, though joining a general decline. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10), Vermont ($3.07) and New York ($3.05) are above $3.00.

In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.90) finally dropped below $3.00. At the low end were Colorado ($2.37), Iowa ($2.44), and Wyoming ($2.45).

Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 40 states, a gain of four from last week and up 14 over the past two weeks. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just eight states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $88,044.85
Last week: $89,338.22
2 weeks ago: $90,860.37
6 months ago: $102,394.40
One year ago: $96,193.61
Five years ago: $26,449.16

Bitcoin remains in a range below $90,000. Every time it appears to be on the move to the upside, it pulls back. That's probably because of its cyclical nature and declining utility as a liquidity provider, heading to $30,000 or lower.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.54; last week: 69.30

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/21: $4,099.20
Gold price 11/28: $4,256.40
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70

Silver price 11/21: $50.33
Silver price 11/28: $57.08
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
Silver price 12/19: $67.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 11/21: $4,063.98
Gold 11/28: $4,216.71
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83

Silver 11/21: $49.97
Silver 11/28: $56.37
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Silver 12/19: $67.21

If you thought last week was good for silver, this week was simply awesome, with the spot price rising from $62.01 to $67.21, Friday close to Friday close. Gold has gained the past three weeks and appears ready to strike out above $4,355, the all-time high. Consolidation appears to be complete. If gold gains over the next two weeks, silver is likely to close out the year at $70 or higher, a price target the brokerages have labeled for 2026. They're completely anti-gold and anti-silver as policy, so many of their analysts are likely to be biting their lips, having missed out on mammoth profits.

The gold:silver ratio continues to descend. When it hits 50, fiat money will begin to disintegrate more rapidly. By the time it gets back to historic levels of 20: or 15:1 or 10:1, fiat currencies will be absolutely worthless, sending the world into an economic depression. Give it a few more years, or months, or maybe weeks. None other than Mike Maloney recently opined that he expects the gold:silver ratio to fall to a low of 20:1, or even 10:1, which would accelerate silver's price seven-fold over gold's advances.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	79.99	72.99	72.00
1 oz silver bar:	67.99	81.75	74.75	75.00
1 oz gold coin:	4,479.50	4,659.50	4,548.73	4,532.99
1 oz gold bar:	4,350.00	4,599.50	4,526.63	4,530.01

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) delivered, for the fourth straight week, what can only be described as a monumental gain, the first time marking over $70, to $73.69, up an incredible $5.54 from the December 14 price of $68.15 per troy ounce. The small-denomination, physical market continues to add high premia over spot and derivative market pricing, making a mockery of the COMEX price-rigging.

WEEKEND WRAP

For anybody not paying attention, silver, while not quite currency, might as well be, as it is at price levels to be regarded as money and not simply an industrial metal. One-ounce silver coins like Eagles, Maples, Kookaburras, Libertads, and Pandas will just about cover a week's groceries today. Two years ago, those same coins were selling for $25 at dealers worldwide. Today, an ounce of silver gets you more than 20 gallons of gas, which is amazing and alarming at the same time, because back in 1963, five silver quarters would only buy about five gallons, and gas was supposedly cheap then.

So, is silver in a bubble or is the entire economy upside-down? We’ll take the latter on that one.

The floating fiat currency era is coming to an end. The price suppressors no longer work as the world has discovered the scam after more than 50 years.

It's about time.

Merry Christmas, stackers.

At the Close, Friday, December 19, 2025:
Dow: 48,134.89, +183.04 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 23,307.62, +301.26 (+1.31%)
S&P 500: 6,834.50, +59.74 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: 21,923.93, +116.06 (+0.53%)

For the Week:
Dow: -323.16 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: +112.45 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: +7.09 (+0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -80.42 (-0.37%)
Dow Transports: +53.39 (+0.31%)

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