Stocks gained again on Monday - no big surprise there.
Gold and silver roared to record highs during the day, only to have them completely wiped out by the obviosly-still-functional price suppressors at the COMEX.
Gold traded as high as $5,102 on the spot market, before the afternoon raid by COMEX operators brought the price down to as low as $5,001. It does not take much analysis to understand that most gold investors did not all decide to sell in the same six hour window. The same applied to silver, which had reached incredible heights of $117 before getting whacked down to $103.
Whether the sudden collapses in gold and silver at the same time were about naked shorting or simply injecting fear into the marketplace matters little. The fact that the COMEX can still exert so much influence in spot pricing over such a short time frame is significant. However, the power of the COMEX has lost a great deal of its firepower, due to exchanges - physical and derivative - in Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai, and elsewhere maintaining price controls that are unaffected by COMEX hijinks.
This can be seen in the quick rebound overnight into January 27 trading. Gold and silver have already regained much of the loss from the 26th. Gold and silver, just after 8:30 am ET, are trading at $5076 and $111, respectively. It may be advisable to simply ignore the daily noise. There are sure to be similar price smackdowns as the COMEX and U.S. authorities lose control of not just the price of gold and silver, but of their own economies and the entire fiat paper debt-based global system.
Unless your investment horizon is less than six months out, daily fluctuations and COMEX-induced scary declines should be almost completely ignored. Those events are the final grasping at straws of a drowning financial system, at which the U.S. is the center, though the heaviest impacts are first being felt in Japan, and next in the EU. Fiat debasement is real and ongoing, but it is very difficult to time. All one needs to know in this environment is that debasement is at the root of all trades, has not ceased, and is unlikely to cease. Gold, silver, stocks, real estate will all continue to appreciate until fiscal policy becomes more responsible, which, considering the current crop of politicians endlessly raiding the treasury, would equate to approximately never.
The debasement trade has been underway for the last fifty years, though it hasn't been as manifest as it is today except in the late 1970s, and during the boom-bust cycles of 2000, 2008, and 2020, the most prominent being the 2008 GFC for precious metals and the 2020 Covid crisis for extreme dollar creation.
As currency debasements go, this one seems to be in the latter stages, and appears to be heading for a climactic endgame within the next three to five years. It could all blow up tomorrow or it could take until 2030 for the wheels to fall off completely. One thing is certain. The system will reset. Inflation, be it the three percent the government continues ot peddle or the seven to 12% that consumers realize on every shopping trip, will be the death-blow.
There are loads of moving parts, from BRICS de-dollarization to Minnesota anti-ICE rebellion and everything in between. What's good for investors at this point is that all assets will appreciate. The trick is to make gains in excess of inflation. Gold and silver kicked inflation to the curb in 2025 and are doing the same in 2026. Stocks were well behind, but still won out over currency debasement. So, keep stacking, and keep trading is about the only investment strategy one needs to stay liquid and prosperous. It's unlikely to remain this blissfully easy for much longer, but probably at least until the US midterms in November or until something breaks badly.
Taking profits at this time would depend largely on one's own investment horizons, but the big question is what to do with the depreciating currency - which Matthew Peipenberg describes as holding "a melting ice cube" - after the sale. Big item purchases with lasting value appear to be the most sensible choice, which would explain why durable goods orders have been on the rise for the past nine months. New or used cars, big ticket home repairs and renovations, large appliances, or re-allocating from one asset class to another are all reasonable choices.
Futures are mixed with the Dow diving as the opening bell approaches. The likely reason for the drop on the Dow is the market's reading on some of these earnings reports: UPS (UPS), General Motors (GM), Synchrony Financial (SYF), American Airlines (AAL), Northrop-Grumman (NOC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB, Boeing (BA), United Health (UNH).
At the Close, Monday, January 26, 2026:
Dow: 49,412.40, +313.69 (+0.64%)
NASDAQ: 23,601.36, +100.11 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 6,950.23, +34.62 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 22,829.14, +71.97 (+0.32%)
Davos and the World Economic Forum (WEF) took center stage this week, with President Trump delivering noxious overtures to the world order. Whether the order is new or old doesn't matter, the assemblage at Davos was lambasted by the president and his entourage for policies and practices that had failed in some manner. At least that was the overarching message.
The entire Greenland debacle remained unresolved, despite Trump - as he usually does - claiming victory despite there being no agreement on anything other than an outline for negotiations. The repeated bullying and boasting by Mr. Trump is beginning to wear thin on leaders of other countries. At Davos, Canada's Carney delivered a singular rebuke of the U.S. tone, calling the force a "rupture" in the world politic.
Relations between nations are being strained by the United States, which refuses to play by any rules. That seems to be the plan, at least, to sow chaos with an oversized, imperial footprint.
Stocks
The bluster from Davos took precedence over some early earnings announcements, though Intel's miss late in the week impacted the Dow Jones Industrials in a large negative manner. The majors were down across the board, though only to a slight degree. None were lower by more than 0.58%.
The coming week may be equally as dull as the one just past. A severe winter storm will chill out much of Washington, D.C. and Wall Street. The Fed's FOMC meeting is likely to contribute much of nothing. Keeping rates on hold when they announce policy on Wednesday afternoon won't move any needles, though Chairman Powell's press conference may offer some clues to future developments. It's all speculative at this point.
The House passed a series of funding bills and has sent them on to the Senate, which should be in agreement on most, though the DHS bill is being used as a wedge issue by Senate Democrats who seem to want something in the way of reforms of ICE tactics in order to move forward. There is a slim, though growing, chance that the government may shut down again come January 31. After the last one back in October, there doesn't seem to be any rationale to do it again. The government is a total mess in any case. The spending continues without an end in sight.
That leaves earnings as the remaining catalyst for stocks. Wednesday figures to be the most active session, with the FOMC decision and some big names reporting both before the open and after the close.
Here are some of the more important companies reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings in the week ahead:
Tuesday: (before open) UPS (UPS), General Motors (GM), Synchrony Financial (SYF), American Airlines (AAL), Northrop-Grumman (NOC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB, Boeing (BA), United Health (UNH); (after close) PPG (PPG), Enova (ENVA), Texas Istruments (TXN), Logitech (LOGI), Seagate (STX)
Wednesday: (before open) AT&T (T), Corning (GLW), General Dynamics (GD), Progressive Insurance (PGR), Starbucks (SBUX), ADP (ADP), ASML (ASML(, GE Verona (GEV); (after close) Lam Research (LRCX), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Levi;s (LEVI), LendingClub (LC)
Thursday: (before open) Caterpillar (CT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Altria (MO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Mastercard (MA), Nokia (NOK) Blacksone Group (BX), Nasdaq (NDAQ); (after close) Visa (V), SAP (SAP), Apple (AAPL), Deckers (DECK), Western Digital (WDC)
Friday: (before open) American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobile (XOM), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Charter Communications (CHTR), SoFi (SOFI)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
12/19/2025
3.71
3.71
3.72
3.62
3.64
3.60
3.51
12/26/2025
3.70
3.69
3.72
3.64
3.66
3.58
3.49
01/02/2026
3.72
3.71
3.66
3.65
3.62
3.58
3.47
01/09/2026
3.70
3.68
3.63
3.62
3.62
3.57
3.52
01/16/2026
3.75
3.72
3.68
3.67
3.66
3.60
3.55
01/23/2026
3.78
3.71
3.72
3.70
3.67
3.61
3.53
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
12/19/2025
3.48
3.53
3.70
3.91
4.16
4.77
4.82
12/26/2025
3.46
3.54
3.68
3.89
4.14
4.76
4.81
01/02/2026
3.47
3.55
3.74
3.95
4.19
4.81
4.86
01/09/2026
3.54
3.59
3.75
3.95
4.18
4.76
4.82
01/16/2026
3.59
3.67
3.82
4.02
4.24
4.79
4.83
01/23/2026
3.60
3.67
3.84
4.03
4.24
4.78
4.82
With most of the active fixed income specialists focused on Japan's interest rates, U.S. rates barely budged and probably won't move much in the week ahead because the FOMC is probably going to be sitting on its hands Wednesday.
According to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, there’s a 95% consensus that the FOMC will keep the federal funds target rate stable, at 3.50-3.75% at its this week's meeting, January 27-28.
Spreads remained in elevated territory and seem committed ot remain there until something breaks, like Japan or possibly a U.S. assault on Iran. Treasury Secretary was gloating over trashing Iran's economy at Davos. He is a devious sort, genuinely unfit to have a hand in world finance. His policies bode ill for most of the West and he's frustrated elsewhere, especially concerning China, India and Russia.
WTI crude closed out the week at $61.28, up sharply from last week's close of $59.22, the product of tension over U.S. threats against Iran. Unless the U.S. commits to another military assault against the country, prices should ease, though there's more than enough uncertainty everywhere for something to set off markets. On the other hand, there's still loads of oil everywhere, keeping a lid on prices, for now.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump made an abrupt move higher this week, to $2.87, probably due to the major winter storm that's passing through the eastern part of the U.S. It's a tough sell, given that road travel will be severely limited across much of the country, though the speculators are likely looking at supply disruptions as the final arbiter.
California was just two cents higher this week, at $4.21 per gallon, the highest in the nation, though that figure hardly instructive. Washington ($3.82) was a nickel higher, but still leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.32), was up four cents. Arizona checked in at $2.96, remaining under $3.00 for the second straight week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, though Oklahoma, the low-price leader, was up another 10 cents to $2.39, followed by Louisiana and Mississippi at $2.40, and Texas and Arkansas at $2.41. The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina west to New Mexico, are all below $2.74, except Florida ($2.85).
In the Northeast, prices were steady and consistent. Only Pennsylvania ($3.01) was above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.94, while Vermont fell to $2.96.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois regained the high ground, at $2.95, after Michigan was the highest for only a week and is now at $2.85. Kansas was the lowest ($2.46).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 43 of the lower 48 states, leaving only Califronia, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $88,556.82
Last week: $95,065.81
2 weeks ago: $90,633.20
6 months ago: $117.570.60
One year ago: $105,193.90
Five years ago: $34,293.02
Clown money. Anybody who bought bitcoin - or a host of the other thousands of alt-coins available - in the past year is losing money. Easier gains could have been made in just about any other asset class, expecially stocks and commodities, gold and silver in particular, which have had spectacular gains.
Once bitcoin breaks below $80,000, there's some support in a range from $50-65,000, but, once that is eviscerated, the bottom is either $30,000 or $10,000, or at the very least, a number that would bankrupt Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR). Bitcoin fails on most of the important facets of sound money. While it is portable, easily divisible and transferable, transfers are facilitated by exchanges, which other forms of money - cash, gold, silver - do not need.
Beyond that, bitcoin is not a quality store of value, nor a reliable means of exchange. Most people don't save money in bitcoin and very few merchants accept it as payment. As its nominal value continues to descend, fewer and fewer people will see it as either a reasonable investment or replacement currency. Its death is likely to be slow and painful.
Th gains in precious metals are not likely to stop any time soon. There's enormous speculation that both gold and silver are residing in "overbought" conditions, though the people expressing that opinion are the same ones who said absolutely nothing over the past 56 years about the "oversold" conditions of the very same objects of their attention.
The primary reason that gold and silver will continue to rise against any and all fiat currencies is the absolute, 100% mathematical certainty that said fiat currencies will fail and redound to their intrinsic value of near-ZERO, or, roughly the cost of paper and ink on which the debt notes are printed. Silver has its own catalyst in the manner of a severe supply shortage in which mining has not kept pace with demand for five years running.
While the possibility of a pullback remains, given current conditions globally, any drop in price should be considered temporary and shallow. Central banks still want more gold and without saying so, BRICS and related countries are hell-bent on creating problems for the fiat debt system. Silver's supply imbalance isn't likely to be corrected for at least three to five years, if even by then.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
105.00
130.17
117.01
116.96
1 oz silver bar:
110.00
126.88
117.54
116.48
1 oz gold coin:
5,129.20
5,339.54
5,242.46
5,270.24
1 oz gold bar:
5,149.75
5,268.51
5,204.69
5,201.25
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued its meteoric ascent through the past week, to $117.00, an outsized gain of $16.05 from the January 18 price of $100.95 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and growing retail investment demand in smaller, finished products, from grams to 1/2-ounce, 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce coins and bars.
WEEKEND WRAP
The world is getting closer and closer to a breaking point, which will manifest itself in the usual ways, either in trade wars (already well underway) or shooting wars (also on the radar in Ukraine and the Middle East). All asset classes appear vulnerable, though precious metals remain stalwart and are more likely to improve in price as conditions remain convulsed or worsen. This is a very tough investing environment, which may soon devolve from seeking gains to holding onto them. One cannot rule out the potential for a quick correction, or worse.
That said, markets have become heavily politicized and the money beind most stocks are likely to be desirous of smooth sailing into the 2026 midterm elections. That's still a good nine months off, so there's plenty of time for anything to happen in the interim.
At the Close, Friday, January 23, 2026:
Dow: 49,098.71, -285.30 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 23,501.24, +65.22 (+0.28%)
S&P 500: 6,915.61, +2.26 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 22,757.16, -40.00 (-0.18%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Despite being only four days long due to the MLK holiday Monday, the current week has been another volatile one, and, heading into Friday, there's a good chance the major stock indices will close well below where they ended the week prior.
Through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is up a meager 24.68 points, the NASDAQ is down 79.37, and the S&P is off 26.66.
Futures are pointing to a red open while the main catalyst that moved stocks in both directions - Greenland and all that's related to it - remains shrouded in mystery. President Trump declared victory on Wednesday, saying something along the lines of an agreement on a framework had been reached. Stock algorithms reacted in a positive manner, sending prices across markets higher, but, as details began to emerge, Thursday's trading was a bit less enthusiastic.
What Trump referred to was a negotiated agreement between his administration and NATO on securing the rights to have bases on the world's largest island. There was no consultation or involvement with either the government of Greenland or Denmark or the inhabitants on the island itself. The U.S. already has a base on Greenland, Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base that has been operational since 1951 under a NATO framework. It's being assumed that the same kind of agreement - or one similar to Britain's bases on Cyprus, in which the bases are sovereign soil of Great Britain - is going to be worked out in coming days, weeks or months.
The opportunity to operate and/or expand military bases on Greenland was never a part of Trump's quest. He claimed to have wanted the whole island to become U.S. property. Simple negotiations with Denmark probably could have secured the deal that's currently being formulated, but that would not have generated the kind of headlines and swashbuckling image that President Trump and his insider traders preferred. As Trump returned to U.S. soil from his forays at the WEF, the world, Greenland, and stocks are back about where they started.
Stock futures are expressing a bit of regret an hour prior to the open. Dow futures are down 156; NASDAQ futures are off 57 points, and S&P futures are lower by about 10 points.
Reporting fourth quarter results after the close Thursday, Intel (INTC) posted a net loss of $600 million, or 12 cents per diluted share. In the year-ago period, Intel reported a net loss of $100 million, or 3 cents per share. The company also issued soft guidance for rhe first quarter of 2026, sending shares down by as much as 17%.
Capital One (COF) announced earnings per share (EPS) of $3.86, short of the $4.12 expected on Wall Street. Revenue in the quarter totaled $15.58 billion, which exceeded the $15.37 billion consensus forecast of analysts. Shares were down about two percent Friday morning prior to the open.
For its full fiscal year, Capital One reported a profit of $2.45 billion, or $4.03 per share on revenue of $53.43 billion. The company recently completed its $35.30 billion all-stock purchase of former rival Discover Financial Services.
Capital One also announced its acquisition of startup Brex for $5.15 billion, in a 50% cash and 50% stock transaction. Brex is an AI-powered financial technology platform that provides corporate credit cards, expense management, and business accounts for other startups.
While stocks may start out lower on Friday, they may get a boost via rumors or headlines during the day, though it appears the markets are running on fumes presently with the majors close to all-time highs but in need of a catalyst. There aren't any big names reporting earnings on Friday, though next week will be loaded. That's also no guarantee. Stocks that have reported this week and demonstrated solid earnings, like 3M (MMM), DR Horton (DHI), Netflix (NFLX), Ally (ALLY), have sold off.
Among the bright spots were Travelers (TRV), which helped boost the Dow higher, Charles Schwab (SCHW), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Proctor Gamble (PG). Stock pickers are becoming more discerning on earnings reports with stocks already juiced.
The big story - and one that still isn't getting the amount of coverage it deserves - is in precious metals. Spot silver, as of a half hour before the stock market open, is 50 cents short of $100/ounce. Gold has had another remarkable week, currently sitting at $4938, though it was as high as $4968 earlier Friday morning. Year-to-date - and mind you, this is less than three full weeks in - gold is up 13%, silver, +40%. If those were stocks, there would be open-to-close coverage of them on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg, but, since they're considered either pet rocks or barbarous relics on Wall Street, crickets.
Keep stacking.
Editor's Note: Since Money Daily HQ is located in the path of the ice storm Mother Nature has planned for the weekend, there's a high expectation that a power outage will occur and could last days. So, in case Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP doesn't appear before 1:00 pm ET, that would be the likely expectations. Stay safe, everybody!
At the Close, Thursday, January 22, 2026:
Dow: 49,384.01, +306.78 (+0.63%)
NASDAQ: 23,436.02, +211.20 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: 6,913.35, +37.73 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 22,797.17, +70.67 (+0.31%)
There are times when one's interests might best be served by just sitting back and enjoying the show the elites, oligarchs, world leaders at the WEF and the mainstream media are presenting. This may be one of those times.
Just before noon on Wednesday, MarketWatch, that CBS scion of financial wisdom, offered the following headline:
Dow heads for best day in roughly two weeks after Trump's Davos speech
Hilariously, by the time the story became available - because MarketWatch is mostly subscribers only - the NASDAQ was heading toward negative territory and the Dow had given back a third of its gains and was headed even lower. U.S. president Trump's messaging to the assemblage at Davos was all pomp, pump, but little in the way of thump, so U.S. stock traders said, "dump." And that's what they did.
The whole issue over Greenland is a sideshow, somewhat like the Vulcan mind-meld operated by the kids in the class with the lowest math grades, a complete circus. Why Trump seems so intent on securing that immense island of mostly mile-thick ice for the United States may be little more than a parlor trick, designed to twist Europe further into a pretzel-knot from which there is no escape. It might be a masterstroke of Trump's 5D chess, but more likely it is a contorted method to feed Europe more nearly-American dollars in a swap for some equally worthless land and send the mission from Euroland back to home base wiht more money to buy U.S. weapons and give them to Ukraine to fight those nasty Russians.
The Greenland gambit isn't about setting up anti-missile defenses or rare earth elements or even securing shipping lanes. It's about money laundering to the lowest of the low, Europe, to be funneled back to U.S. arms manufacturers. In that regard, it's a rip-roaring success. From Wall Street's perspective, it means almost nothing. Anybody able to take away from Trump's meandering mind-numbing message at Davos anything at all must be hallucinating on very powerful drugs because there was no message other than USA, USA, USA, the usual chest-beating by the world's greatest ape in the jungle of politics.
It's all so tiring, though sometimes, it pays to sit back and enjoy the humor of people taking themselves very seriously. If one is able to just ignore the politicians, the bankers, the noisy mainstream media talking heads, and the stock market - an ambitious task, understand - life becomes much more pleasant and appealing. The biggest decisions might be what to have for lunch or what to do over the weekend.
World politics aside, where they should be, normal, actual thinking people don't really care what the greatest assembly of self-absorbed narcissists in the world really thinks about anything. The WEF has been holding these back-slapping parties for some 50-odd years and well, here we are. It's always the same talk about forming relationships, better understanding, dealing with issues. In the end, little changes, and so it will be with this confab. Lots of huff and puff, but no real stuff. Ya gets what ya pays for, as they say in Brooklyn.
Grinning from broadside ear-to-ear, around 1:00 pm ET, the Wall Street Journal posted the headline:
along with a chart showing the three major indices down between 1.5% and 2.5% the past three sessions, up-to-the-minute on Tuesday.
Take that, you MarketWatch smarties.
In the end, though, MarketWatch got the last laugh when stocks jumped just before 2:30 pm ET after Trump announced the "concept of a deal" over Greenland, taking tariffs off the table, live on CNBC, telling Joe Kernan the deal is "forever", as in fairy tales, with Kernan sucking it right up. One can easily imagine that Howard Lutnik and all of Trump's pals made good money up and down all day. International geopolitics has become Peak Clown World. It's even better than the NFL.
Back in the marginal reality that is Wall Street, a bunch of companies reported fourth quarter results.
After the bell Wednesday, Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) missed revenue and EPS estimates and is trading lower by about two percent.
Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat, issued soft guidance and is down less than one percent pre-market. Thursday morning, Proctor & Gamble (PG) reported stronger EPS, but lower gross reveunes, citing soft consumer demand (mind you, in the world's "hottest" country). The stock is trending lower pre-market by one percent. P&G's core gross margin fell for the fifth quarter in a row, partly due to tariffs and investments in different pack sizes to appeal to consumers looking to save money. P&G is trading down from a March 2025 high of 176, at 146/share.
GE Aerospace (GE) is two percent lower after a good quarter, but with slowing revenue growth.
Abbott Labs (ABT) is being slammed in the pre-market, down more than six percent. The company reported earnings in line with expectations, but investors aren't buying its forecasts.
Miner Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is trending flat to lower in the pre-market. The stock is up more than 30% since late November on prospects for gold, silver and other ores. Thursday's move looks like profit-taking.
Another miner, NovaGold (NG), is down 1.5% prior to the opening bell. The company has reported a net loss six years running.
McCormick (MKC) is down more than six percent on EPS of $0.86 vs. analyst expectations of $0.88.
Despite all the red from companies reporting, stock futures are trending higher, supposedly goosed by President Trump announcing the framework of a forever concept deal on Greenland, or something like that. As usual, the headline fed to algos is a positive one, though devoid of detail.
Stock futures are all rising heading into the open. Dow futures: +229; NASDAQ futures, +250; S&P futures, +45.
At 8:30 am ET, the BEA released updated 3rd quarter U.S. GDP, showing the economy expanded at 4.4%. This second estimate follows the initial estimate of 4.3% growth.
The BEA will be releasing the latest PCE Index reading at 10:00 am ET. The last was from September, which showed the index at 2.8% annually. The newest figures will be for November and are expected to show a rise of 0.2% for the month and 2.8% on an annual basis. Inflation remains a threat, which will likely keep the federal funds rate level at next week's FOMC meeting.
Gold and silver got their required weekly beatings a bit earlier than normal (Wednesday instead of Friday), after both traded at fresh highs earlier. Gold traded as high as $4,875 on Wednesday and is currently leveling off around $4,825. Silver was as high as $95.71 and as low as $90.77, now having recovered to a range around $93-94 per ounce. Action in the spot market seems to be indicating shorts unwinding positions and solid fundamentals for both metals.
Looks like the markets are going to attempt to claw back the rest of what they lost on Tuesday.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 21, 2026:
Dow: 49,077.23, +588.64 (+1.21%)
NASDAQ: 23,224.82, +270.50 (+1.18%)
S&P 500: 6,875.62, +78.76 (+1.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,726.50, +253.29 (+1.13%)
It's difficult to get a grasp on just who President Trump thought he was addressing in his keynote address at the World Economic Forum this morning in Davos, Switzerland, but he spent most of his time with the the usual gaslighting, boasting the U.S. economy and denigrating Europe, most of whose industrial and political leaders were in attendance.
Among the boasts, the platitudes the president poured upon himself, and the interspersed insults, a few were:
"No inflation, "extraordinarily high economic growth."
"In the last three months, core inflation was just 1.6%"
$18 trillion in investment commitments.
"hottest country anywhere in the world."
"places in Europe are unrecognizable."
"Removed 270,000 bureaucrats."
"slashed the deficit by 27%"
"reduced trade deficit by 77%"
"steel plants are being built all over the country."
"Venezuela will make more money in the next six months than they did in the last 20 years."
"All the major oil companies are going in with us."
"Leading the world in AI by a lot."
"We want Europe to be strong."
"On Greenland, I have tremendous respect for the people of Greenland and the people of Denmark."
"We need it for strategic international security, not for rare earth metals."
"It's the United States alone who can protect this giant peice of land."
"Seeking negotiations to acquire Greenland."
"All we want from Denmark is this land on which we will build the greatest golden dome ever built."
He also talked about battleships. (two may be built in the next five years)
For the most part, it was another campaign speech, even though Mr. Trump cannot run for election again, at least not for the presidency.
Getting back to things that actually matter, stocks took a beating on Tuesday, the worst since October. What stood out was that while stocks were getting what they so richly deserve, gold and silver were absolutely electric. Gold, over the course of January 20th, gained from $4,601 to $4,866, a gain of $265 in just one 24-hour period. Over the same time span, silver rose from $89.94 to $94.34.
Tuesday was a day that was a long time coming. It was a day in which stocks were down greatly and precious metals were up by a huge amount. Tuesday's market activity was an indication of what is happening and what is coming. It is repudiation of paper promises and acceptance of hard assets as the true investable collateral.
Despite all the blather coming out of Davos and President Trump, what really matters are Japan's bond market - which is imploding - gold, and silver.
There's far too much financial commentary these days, much of it misleading, most of it designed to sell people things they don't need, like tiny shares of massive publicly-held corporations or worse, insurance, a bane on humanity propagated by the same banking interests who rule the world with fiat currencies and fractional reserve banking. Money Daily will strive to be brief this weekend, if only to relieve some of the indigestible bubble narratives.
Some narrative-building will be undertaken by the Boaster-in-Chief, President Trump, who will be addressing his billionaire buddies in Davos, Switzerland at the annual World Economic Forum. When Trump first campaigned for president and won in 2016, he was kind of an outsider to the Davos crowd. Now, he is one of them, which helps explain the big differences in his policies from then to now.
In the meantime, silver rallied 10% on the week and was quoted above $100 in Shanghai. More below.
Stocks
The week just ended wasn't very healthy for stocks. The major indices were all lower, albeit by less than a half percent with a completely dead session Friday. Only the NYSE Composite and Dow Transports finished the week in positive territory. It's understandable that small caps would fare better in the current environment. Some of them are only ones not already at nosebleed levels. As the economic cycle rolls over, innovative, more nimble outfits may be able to seize upon opportunities to introduce new products or grab market share.
Monday is Martin Luther King Day, so equity markets are closed.
Economic data drops are few this week, including PCE inflation data for October and November to be released on Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, so it will be closely watched. Also on Thursday, the final reading for third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 are announced before the opening bell. Prior to that, Construction Spending for September and October and Pending home sales for December come out on Wednesday.
Here are some of the companies reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings in the week ahead:
Tuesday: (before open) 3M (MMM), Fastenal (FAST), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), DR Borton (DHI), US Bancorp (USB), Key Bank (KEY); (after close) United Airlines (UAL), Netflix (NFLX), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Bank of the Ozarks (OZK), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)
Wednesday: (before open) Ally (ALLY), Vitizens Financial (CFG), Yravelers (TRV), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)
Friday: (before open) Ericsson (ERIC), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Comerica (CMA)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
12/12/2025
3.76
3.75
3.75
3.63
3.64
3.58
3.54
12/19/2025
3.71
3.71
3.72
3.62
3.64
3.60
3.51
12/26/2025
3.70
3.69
3.72
3.64
3.66
3.58
3.49
01/02/2026
3.72
3.71
3.66
3.65
3.62
3.58
3.47
01/09/2026
3.70
3.68
3.63
3.62
3.62
3.57
3.52
01/16/2026
3.75
3.72
3.68
3.67
3.66
3.60
3.55
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
12/12/2025
3.52
3.58
3.75
3.95
4.19
4.82
4.85
12/19/2025
3.48
3.53
3.70
3.91
4.16
4.77
4.82
12/26/2025
3.46
3.54
3.68
3.89
4.14
4.76
4.81
01/02/2026
3.47
3.55
3.74
3.95
4.19
4.81
4.86
01/09/2026
3.54
3.59
3.75
3.95
4.18
4.76
4.82
01/16/2026
3.59
3.67
3.82
4.02
4.24
4.79
4.83
Markets are calling the Fed's bluff on lowering rates. Yield on the five-year note is the highest since November 17, 2025 (3.60%), and the 10-year is yielding the most since September 2nd (4.28%) while the 30-year bond remains elevated since a low on 10/16/25 (4.58%), continuing to nudge closer to 5.00%. The direction this week had much to do about the CPI, but more so, the PPI, which showed inflation in the pipeline via producer prices.
If the Fed were inclined to reverse course and actually perform a prudent function for markets by raising the federal funds target rate, bond buyers might show more interest (no pun intended). Adding to the bond market's bouts of indigestion are President Trump's blathering over global issues, his desire to own a large chunk of ice (Greenland) and continued piracy on the high seas. If the U.S. government maintains a policy of running afoul of the rule of law, foreign bond purchasers will make issuers pay a hefty price, demanding higher yields in a shaky environment.
Spreads on 2s-10s remained elevated at +65, while full spectrum moderated slightly, down four basis points to +108, though still at extreme levels, indicating stress in fixed income markets. Conditions for erratic dislocations and dysfunctions in the treasury complex are high, and, unless the militarist rhetoric is tamped down in Washington, D.C., investors are likely to take further flight from bonds toward precious metals and other hard assets.
According to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, there’s a 95% consensus that the FOMC will keep the federal funds target rate stable, at 3.50-3.75% at its next meeting, January 27-28).
WTI crude closed out the week at $59.22, just slightly higher than last week's close of $58.62. The Venezuela effect continues to wane. Oil execs have expressed little interest. Rebuilding the existing production infrastructure is, at best, a five to ten year project. Trump's bold move to capture the country’s resources may turn out to be one of the major strategic blunders of his administration. It's too early to tell, but, so far, it's not going well.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped another two cents, to $2.76, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering Venezuela and the continued global glut. Pax Americana, or the so-called Donroe Doctrine is going to be a long haul. America's resources are already stretched thin and South American countries aren't keen on American interventionism given China has already established significant inroads in places like Peru, Bolivia, to say nothing of tight ties with Brazil via BRICS. The U.S. will get some of what it wants and needs from the Southern Hemisphere, but it has given China a significant head start and whatever extractions the U.S. can make will be expensive.
The average price for a gallon of unleaded regular 10% ethanol gasoline in the U.S. rose four cents, to $2.80, though that figure is close to multi-year lows.
California remained at $4.19 per gallon, the highest in the nation, though that figure is down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.77) was lower by a penny over the week, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.28), fell another two cents. Arizona checked in at $2.94, another multi-year low. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, though Oklahoma, the low-price leaders, was up 12 cents to $2.29, The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina west to New Mexico, are all below $2.68, except Florida ($2.77).
In the Northeast, prices were steady and consistent. Only Vermont ($3.00) and Pennsylvania ($3.02) are at or above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.96.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Michigan took the lead over Illinois as te highest, at $2.96. Wyoming was the lowest ($2.40).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 45 states, three more than last week, leaving only Califronia, Washington, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Vermont at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $95,065.81
Last week: $90,633.20
2 weeks ago: $91,306.05
6 months ago: $118,353.30
One year ago: $102,194.90
Five years ago: $34,293.20
Bitcoin and the larger crypto-universe got a boost this week, with the Senate moving ahead on the CLARITY Act, which would provide a framework for bitcoin, altcoins, tokens, stablecoins, blah, blah, blah, as if what the world wanted to go along with its vacuous, unbacked, invisible electronic currency is a host of regulations, taxes, tracking directives and various other rules and oversight provisions. Notably, Coinbase, one of the largest exchanges, withdrew support for the legislation late in the week after viewing the Senate's revised draft legislation and now the White House is considering pulling its support.
The main issue revolves around the ability of tokens to offer interest-bearing options on stablecoins in particular, allowing competition with regular U.S. banks. While that is a considerable stretch - getting interest on a currency backed by nothing - it is precisely what banks have been doing with U.S. Federal Reserve Notes for the past 112 years. Why the White House may pull its backing for the legislation is simple: there isn't enough leverage to skim from the rubes.
Another snag in the plan for you to "own nothing and be happy" has emerged just in time for the Davos WEF. Just because the majority of people in this world don't fully grasp economics, doesn't necessarily give the oligarchs and banking titans to screw them over constantly. There are solutions. See directly below.
Silver was up $9.99, or 12.49%, for the week. Gold gained $84.81 (+1.88%). The continuing gains come against a backdrop of three consecutive margin hikes in the past month by the CME and heavy negative propaganda about the Bloomberg Commodities Index Rebalancing, which was supposed to force selling in silver and gold and crush the rally in precious metals.
Didn't happen. In fact, silver had one of its best weeks ever and will head higher, probably much higher, as countries scramble to secure mine output from around the world. What's most interesting and probably overlooked by Western analysts (who, BTW, mostly have their heads deeply up their behinds) is the fierce competition in Asia, particularly between China and India, both of which seek copious amounts of silver for not just solar and EV production, but as investment and jewelry. The Lunar New Year (China) is a month off (February 17). The leadup to that event is usually a strong buying season for gold and silver to be given as gifts, adding to the allure of more rapid, explosive gains in precious metals.
For those not familiar with the ins-and-outs of precious metals, Money Daily strongly advises regular viewing of Live from the Vault, which features Andrew Maguire, one of the industry's top analysts and precious metals trader. The current episode is quite insightful regarding silver and also includes Maguire's price predictions for gold and silver in 2026.
Both metals should continue to rally through 2026 and probably beyond, until something serious breaks, like the global economy.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
89.75
109.27
100.43
99.96
1 oz silver bar:
95.00
108.88
102.15
101.25
1 oz gold coin:
4,667.68
4,942.17
4,827.69
4,807.21
1 oz gold bar:
4,767.62
4,915.00
4,812.34
4,805.57
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) exploded higher over the past week, to $100.95, an unprecedented gain of $13.45 from the January 11 price of $87.54 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and growing retail investment demand in smaller, finished products, from grams to 1/2-ounce, 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce coins and bars.
WEEKEND WRAP
Nothing beat silver last year and it's already zoomed to the front of all asset classes in 2026. Over the past year, silver experienced a gain of 180% and is already up 25% in 2026. Considering that the move over the past year was just the beginning of shaking off 55 years of price suppression and 150+ years of purposeful demonetization, price appreciation over the next two to four years may be nothing short of spectacular. With $100 silver already appearing in Shanghai and on eBay, the next move higher - even if silver only gains 40% in 2026 - will be $140. Some of the brightest analysts see a price between $140 and $160 as just the next level higher, as silver becomes relevant as an investment asset, beyond its multiple purposes in industry.
At the Close, Friday, January 16, 2026:
Dow: 49,359.33, -83.11 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 23,515.39, -14.63 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 6,940.01, -4.46 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 22,807.06, -1.75 (-0.01%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
It's been an up-and-down week for stocks. Overall, markets are looking to head into the three-day weekend (MLK Day Monday, January 19) not very far from where they began, though with a lsight lean to the downside.
Through Thursday's close, the Dow is off 61 points, the NASDAQ is down 141, and the S&P down 21 and change.
Precious metals have had another solid week, though New York traders are looking to tamp down some of the gains.
Gold was up $109 at the close of trading on Thursday, at $4619.76, but is down slightly, at $4600 just before 9:00 am ET. Similarly, silver finished up $12.78, at $92.73 Thursday, but is being treated to its regular weekly COMEX spanking prior to Friday's U.S. stock market open, at $88.54. Silver has been whipsawed back and forth between competing markets in New York, London, and Shanghai, the latter vaulting past $100/ounce Thursday.
In terms of overall health, global equity markets continue to show considerable froth in the face of uncertain geopolitical and economic stresses.
Before the open Thursday, Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported fourth quarter earnings that beat estimates and the company guided higher, sparking a nice bump to $350 before settling back to close at $341.64. The world's largest chip manufacturer is up nearly seven percent on the week, helping tech gains on Thursday.
Banks, despite spotty results, have shown strength late in the week, but overall, don't appear to be the strongest cards in the deck. Despite weakness this week, January is off to a fair start for stocks, with the Dow leading, up nearly three percent, while the NASDAQ and S&P follow, though only ahead by 1.24% and 1.48%, respectively.
Bitcoin has regained some momentum, up more than nine percent year-to-date, at $95,468.72 Friday morning.
Stock futures are positive, led by NASDAQ, up 125 a half hour before the bell.
WTI crude oil continues to hold gains near $60/barrel. The volatility in oil had much to do with President Trump's saber-rattling at Iran, though as Iran's protests were finally quelled midweek, the rhetoric changed to a more conciliatory tone. Word has it that Russian President Putin advised the Iranian leadership to tone down in terms of punishing protesters - many of which were suspected Mossad and CIA plants - with executions.
Stocks, which remain near all-time highs, have some work to do if they plan on finishing the week higher, especially in the tech sector.
At the Close, Thursday, January 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,442.44, +292.81 (+0.60%)
NASDAQ: 23,530.02, +58.27 (+0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,944.47, +17.87 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 22,808.81, +87.59 (+0.39%)
Banks are borrowing at anywhere from 0.50% to 3.75%, charging interest on credit card loans at rates between 15% and 35%, but they're having a hard time improving profits.
On Tuesday, it was JP Morgan Chase getting whacked after releasing fourth quarter 2025 earnings with a big miss in EPS. The stock is down more than six percent on the week. Wednesday the terrific trio of Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) released their earnings numbers and Wall Street sent them down 3.34%, 3.78%, and 4.61%, respectively.
This morning, Thursday, it's Goldman Sachs (GS) getting the cold shoulder after missing revenue estimates and taking a $2.26 billion loss on their former holding of the Apple Card portfolio which they sold to JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Goldman Sachs is down two percent pre-market with further markdowns sure to come during the cash session. Undeterred, Goldman lowered their provision for credit losses (adding to their bottom line) by $2.48 billion. JP Morgan added to theirs by roughly the same amount. Those Apple Card users must not be using enough AI, apparently. Their portfolio is a mess.
Banks not improving their profitability when money is loose and getting looser, the GDP is supposedly running red hot at about four percent, and inflation, according to the most expert opinions, is grinding lower doesn't quite add up. These financial wizards should be absolutely raking it in and they're not.
Maybe, just maybe, they know something the general public doesn't. Like bankruptcies are rising, consumer loans and credit cards are defaulting at alarming rates, and kidnapping heads of state isn't exactly stable foreign policy. The mainstream media complex won't tell the public what's really happening and the government is almost certainly cooking the books. Massive fraud is uncovered and yet, nobody goes to jail. At the same time, gold and silver are sending an alternative message about the stability of the US$ and the Western global financial system. Truth is, BRICS and most of what's become known as the "Global South" are shunning use of the dollar, trading amongst themselves and resetting the prices for not just precious metals, but commodities in general.
The United States, which once was a bastion of free speech, rugged individualism, and a strong middle class, has, mostly over the past 20 years, been downgraded to an enormous socialist/fascist third world state with a centrally-planned economy that is $38 trillion in debt, run by oligarchs and mega-corporations that likes to use its military to steal natural resources and other treasures from smaller countries. This is a far cry from the 1950s and 60s, when the United States was the wealthiest country in the world and a single earner with a wife two kids and maybe some pets could afford a decent house, annual vacations, and all the elements of a prospering middle class. That's all gone. Two incomes are now required for home ownership, and only if the combined income is upwards of $150,000. Even then it's a stretch. Vacations, Saturday night steaks on the grill, and other niceties are now considered luxuries. Most of the citizens can barely afford rent and food.
Yes, America is kinda going backwards. You can thank the last eight or 12 presidents and the congress that still hasn't figured out how to actually prepare a budget and stick to it. Removing the dollar redemption for gold, finally defaulted in 1971, played a huge rule.
Something's going to break.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 14, 2026:
Dow: 49,149.63, -42.36 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 23,471.75, -238.12 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 6,926.60, -37.14 (-0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 22,721.23, +65.78 (+0.29%)
In January, 2025, the price of silver on the spot market was somewhere between $28 and $32 per troy ounce. A year later, for all intents and purposes, that price has tripled.
Thank about that for a moment. A 200% gain in just one year. A triple.
Now, think about individual people - hundreds of millions of them from America to Europe to China and India and all places in between - that own silver in the form of bars, coins, trinkets, and jewelry. Their net worth has seen a massive increase, depending on how much silver they hold.
Americans, probably the dumbest people on the planet, have been selling their silver and their gold as prices have rocketed higher. Imagine those who sold at $50 an ounce, probably got $45 or thereabouts from their coin dealer, and are now kicking themselves for selling too soon, believing that the COMEX, LBMA, CME, and the usual horde of speculators and bullion banks that have been short silver for decades, would perform their usual magic and send the price screaming back down into the 30s or 20s.
They were wrong. Dead wrong. The Comex has been effectively neutered by industrial buyers and U.S. bullion banks who switched from short to long around and after September of 2025.
Now, those 100s of millions of people in China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and elsewhere across Asia and Africa who held their silver, knowing from experience that it has value as money, plain and simple, they're feeling much more well off than they were a year ago. In some of these countries that regard gold and silver in high esteem, many households probably have 100 ounces of silver or more. What was $2,500 in January of last year is now $7,500 presently (as measured in their currencies of course), and prospects for further gains are not just good, they are very, very good.
What has happened over the past year is nothing short of a massive shift in wealth, changing course from the haves to the have-nots, a dynamic reversal of the top 10% reaping all the gains, mostly in stocks, while the lower 90% tried to keep up. The rest of the world, outside the West, is very different in their approach to just about everything, and, in the case of gold and silver, their age-old reverence from precious metals is paying off in many ways.
Just think about 100 to 500-ounces of silver in 200 million or more Asian and African households - not all of them, mind you, but enough to make a huge difference - that are reaping the rewards of simply saving in silver and gold as protection from inflation and calamaties in fiat currencies. They are not only feeling what former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke termed the "wealth effect", they are experiencing it in real, tangible ways.
One example of how silver will be changing lives is in India, which, back in October issued formal requirements of banks and other financial institutions to lend to individuals and small merchants using silver as collateral. All are supposed to be in compliance by April 1, 2026, but many already are. Indians, mostly rural farmers and businesspeople, are being lifted out of poverty every day now in the world's most populous country and the use of silver as collateral or just plain old money is spreading like wildfire across the globe.
Back in the world of stocks, the Dow took a heavy blow on Tuesday, mostly in response to JP Morgan's (JPM) rare earnings shortfall. Today it's Citigroup that is soon to be feeling the pain, having missed top and bottom line this morning with their 4th quarter earnings report. Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) also reported this AM and are both being sold off 1.5-2.5%, despite earnings that were pretty much in line with expectations, indicating that something larger is spooking the market.
Perhaps it has something to do with the Producer Price Index for December, which, earlier this morning was reported thusly:
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged up 0.1 percent in October and advanced 0.6 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
The November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.2 percent in November after moving up 0.7 percent in October. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 3.5 percent, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.5 percent in March.
Stock futures are lower across the board. Gold, silver, and oil are positive.
Inflation is in the pipeline and the president wants to annex Greenland and lower interest rates.
Any idea how insane all of that sounds?
At the Close, Tuesday, January 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,191.99, -398.21 (-0.80%)
NASDAQ: 23,709.87, -24.03 (-0.10%)
S&P 500: 6,963.74, -13.53 (-0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,655.44, -40.49 (-0.18% )
The company reported diluted earnings per share of $4.63, compared to $5.07 in the third quarter and $4.81 in the same period a year ago. From a bottom line perspective, it's clear that business is going in reverse at the venerable ship of state with the "fortress balance sheet." EPS estimates were largely in a range of $4.90-5.00. This constitutes a very big miss and a sets a poor tone for earnings season, just now beginning.
Further on, as one delves deeper into the company’s numbers, the declines in gross and net income indicate a severe decline that cannot be attributed to the 43-day government shutdown from October 1 into November, but to underlying factors stemming primarily from consumer spending trends.
The company breaks down their results into sections, though it is within Consumer & Community Banking (CCB) that most of the financial damage can be seen. Net income was $3.6 billion, down 9% from the fourth quarter of 2024, and down 27% from the prior quarter.
Company-wide, provision for credit losses was $4.7 billion. Net charge-offs were $2.5 billion, up $150 million, predominantly driven by Wholesale. The net reserve build was $2.1 billion, reflecting a $2.2 billion reserve established for the forward purchase commitment of the Apple credit card portfolio. In the prior year, the provision was $2.6 billion, net charge-offs were $2.4
billion and the net reserve build was $267 million.
Net revenue of $46,767 billion, was down from $47,120 billion in the third quarter, but up 7% from $43,738 billion in the 2024 fourth quarter, rouhgly in-line with inflation, which means the company was mostly treading water for all of 2025. They are losing share and money is fleeing from their credit card business, just as they take on the Apple Card portfolio, taken over from management by Goldman Sachs. The $2.2 billion reserve established just for that portfolio is stunning, given that Apple customers are widely regarded to be fiscally prudent. The fact that Goldman sought to unload the unit is indicating the opposite. Expect more write-downs when JPM issues first quarter results in April.
JP Morgan's results reflect similarities in other U.S. large-cap companies, which, while they routinely beat estimates, they fall short on either y-o-y or prior quarter earnings, the straightaway implication that the business is, not growing, but rather, contracting. Nonetheless, stocks continue to rise. The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) finished Monday at 41.01, a new interim high, second only to the record 44.19 of December 1999, just prior to the dotcom bust.
On Monday, stocks took the usual path of least resistance, starting lower and ending higher. The Dow Jones Industrials erased an opening loss of more than 400 points to close 89 higher. The S&P and NASDAQ followed similar paths, though overall, trading was muted.
One might reasonably expect a wave of tax-related selling in profitable names, given that any gains taken now won't need to be reported until April 2027, generating a very solid free cash flow. If markets sense weakness, tax-related selling will likely exacerbate losses. JPM's benchmark report is not setting a very bullish precedent.
Gold and silver started off the week with a bang, both at record highs. Gold closed out Monday at $4585.89; silver finished at $83.94 an ounce. Both are ripping higher in the aftermath of the CPI release. Gold, $4609.00; Silver, $87.57.
The BLS released a statement at 8:30 am ET:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
On that release, stock futures initially spiked higher off earlier lows, but are quickly retreating as the opening bell approaches.
Things might get a bit dicey today and for the rest of the week and earnings season, especially, in addition to somewhat dour economic tones, President Trump is amping up aggression aimed at Iran. His continued semi-psychotic actions adding to the uncertainty and unease.
At the Close, Monday, January 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,590.20, +86.10 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 23,733.90, +62.60 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,977.27, +10.99 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 22,695.93, +104.23 (+0.46%)
Anybody seeking to formulate a coherent investing profile for 2016 is facing an uphill battle. There are so many variables to consider that affect different sectors in different ways that allocation of capital becomes a monumental consideration. Available options range from wide diversification into various asset classes to smaller positions and an emphasis on cash, in order to take advantage of opportunities that may present themselves as events unfold. There is also an argument in favor of staying put, keeping one's portfolio exactly as it is until the first or second week of February after most of the major companies have presented fourth quarter and full year earnings, the first FOMC meeting of 2026, and the first estimate of fourth quarter 2025 GDP.
To get an idea of what is guiding Wall Street and other private analysts, here is a brief look at some of the larger issues, many of which overlap:
President Trump: Judging by the proposals and actions taken in the first year of his second presidency, there appears to be little long-term planning in this administration. Closing the southern border to illegal immigrants has been the one major positive development. Deportations appear to be focused on criminal elements rather than the mass outflow promised during the election campaign. ICE faces protests and a public relations nightmare everywhere it attempts enforcement.
Tariffs have so far resulted in marginal additional revenues to the government. In 2025, estimates range from $261 billion to $331 billion were collected, essentially from April through December, 9 months. That doesn't amount to much in terms of the $6.8 in spending for fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 - September 30, 2026) and a $2 trillion deficit. Whatever the tariff revenue will be for the full fiscal year, it is unlikely to be more than $35 billion a month, or $410 billion for the 12 months, which would cover about six percent of government outlays. Thus, tariffs are not a panacea.
The Venezuelan escapade of recent fame appears to be a long shot in terms of the U.S. extracting oil and profiting from it. The president met with oil company executives on Friday, and the general tone was not encouraging. Much of Venezuela's oil infrastructure is aged or broken and huge investments would need to be made to increase production from current levels of less than one million barrels a day, a significant decline from the peak of 3.5 million barrels a day in the 1970s. Oil executives cited past nationalizations and security as major stumbling blocks to re-investing in Venezuela. The naval blockade is tying up 20% of America's naval fleet and boots on the ground is probably not a viable long-term option. In addition, getting the oil flows improving would likely take two to three years.
What Trump may have accomplished was cutting off the oil supply from Venezuela to Iran, China, and Russia. While that may do some damage to their economies, it doesn't enhance U.S. prospects very much. Besides, with the current oil glut, adding more supply would lower the price of crude, another negative to oil executives. Shale producers are already complaining.
President Trump has also issued threats to other South American countries, specifically, Columbia and Mexico. These seem to be more bluster than substance. Columbia has already called the president's bluff. Military strikes against Mexican cartels are unlikely, especially since the CIA is deeply entrenched in drug trafficking, as Ben Norton points out in a recent explosive expose on his Geopolitical Economy Report:
Trump's continued posturing toward Greenland has raised ire in Europe, with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and others speaking out against U.S. intervention. As it is, the U.S. already has agreements and military in place. It would appear that negotiating for access to the supposed enormous supply of critical materials locked beneath the ice would be preferable to military action.
Trump, while he campaigned as the "peace president", has been nothing ot the sort. He's taken military actions against Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Yeman, and Nigeria in just his first year in office.
On Friday, Trump posted on Trusth Social that he wanted credit card interest rates capped at 10%. This amounts to either gaslighting or vote buying, as it would take congressional legislation, or at least revision of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (DIDMCA), which effectively allowed nationally-chartered banks and other financial institutions to bypass state usuury laws. While there has been some rumblings in congress on the issue, the banks, credit card companies and even credit unions are opposed to the idea.
In part, the president's post says, “AFFORDABILITY! Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%,” to which the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum and Independent Community Bankers of America responded in a joint statement:
“We share the President’s goal of helping Americans access more affordable credit. At the same time, evidence shows that a 10% interest rate cap would reduce credit availability and be devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help. If enacted, this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives. We look forward to working with the administration to ensure Americans have access to the credit they need.”
These companies make billions in revenue from interest rates of 20-30% or more, and they're not about to give that up. The president's bold proposal appears to be a dead-ender. The banking lobby's opposition to what used to be known as "usury" also points up how dependent the U.S. is on debt, not just at the government and corporate levels, but right down to the dinner tables of middle and lower class Americans.
President Trump also committed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgages or mortgage-backed securities, effectively restating QE without the Fed's involvement. In May, the president will have his own hand-picked chairman at the Fed with the tacit instruction to lower the federal funds rate. While that may be a boost to business in general terms, it is also inflationary, though the effects won't be evident for three to six months, coincidentally, after the midterms.
In a nutshell, much of Trump's policy decisions are based upon a need to keep majorities in the House and Senate, because without them, he is certain to be impeached. Current policy is based wholly on politics, not what would benefit the country most as promised by his "America First" campaign pledge.
Ukraine: The peace plans that have been circulation for months have no weight at all since they've been roundly rejected by Russia in advance. The E.U., U.K., and U.S. are continuing their charade in Ukraine for as long as possible mostly because admitting or accepting defeat would expose their ill-conceived plans of regime change (getting rid of Putin) and destroy their governments. The damage has already been done, as most leaders in the West have approval ratings in the teens and little public support. U.S. president Trump is doing a little better at 44.1%.
Gaza, Israel, and the Middle East: This all remains a tinderbox. U.S. support for Israel remains strong, despite the tenuous cease fire in Gaza and tensions all around, in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and further east to Somalia and Yemen. Iran is in its third week of widespread anti-government protests, some of which have turned violent. U.S. policy varies between supporting the protesters and bombing the country again for restarting its nuclear program. There's no telling how this will play out long term or even short term.
Dollar Hegemony and BRICS The U.S. dollar continues to lose influence as the world's reserve currency. BRICS have fully integrated bi-lateral and multi-lateral trade amongst themselves and associated countries, bypassing the dollar. Gold emerged as the top holding of central banks in 2025, surpassing U.S. treasuries, a trend that is accelerating.
U.S. Domestic Issues: Wealth disparity between the top 10% and everybody else has reached historic proportions, fueling anger and rage within the middle and lower classes. Widespread disagreement on ICE actions and deportations in general has led to more division in the general population. Race, denial of free speech, and affordability of everything from food to housing is sending a message of desperation rather than prosperity. Trump's tax cuts will help, with higher refunds to many come March, April, and May, if the IRS doesn't fail again to process returns in a timely manner. These are some of the major issues in America, keeping the country deeply divided and on edge. The rise of socialism and the waste and fraud in government are also turning the screws on the American psyche. The rhetoric from Washington D.C. and the mainstream media will likely grow louder and more divisive as the November midterms approach.
The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a bill calling for a three-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, the passage of which makes the October government shutdown look more and more like a planned event by both parties. Though approval in the Senate is being characterized as with tenuous support, there's little doubt that they'll ride the gravy train of votes, graft, and kickbacks from lobbyists. The entire congress is only in it for the money and the votes.
Corporate Earnings and the General Economy: There's a mixed message emerging between Wall Street and Main Street that's been brewing since the GFC in 2008 and the covid experience of 2020. Corporations and big business seem to be thriving while small business is on the decline with bankruptcies rising, costs and regulations strangling entrepreneurship. Wall Street firms seem to be reaping the benefits of a growing economy while the country as a whole seems to be slipping into recession. The most recent Non-Farm Payrolls from December were hardly encouraging. The average monthly gain in employment was 49,000, a significant decline from 2024, which came in at 168,000 on average per month.
This raises two questions: 1) is AI responsible for employment scarcity?; 2) are companies actually improving, or are they just beating lowered estimates, which appears to be the case for many publicly-held companies. Stock buybacks also help companies "make their numbers", so is the U.S. expanding or are companies playing accounting tricks which Wall Street knows about but won't admit out loud?
The above reflections are just part of the complex decisions facing investors as 2026 gets underway. It is nowhere near a full accounting of the issues that need to be addressed.
Stocks
Stocks started out the first full week of trading with the usual bubble bang. Even a slowing labor market was seen as good news. No reason to move anywhere but "all in" it seems. All of the major indices were up more than 1.5% for the week.
After the BLS reported December job gains fo 50,000 and revised October was down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and November down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000, Wall Street became keenly aware of the employment figures, given they will factor into the Fed's thinking concerning rate movement at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 27-28. That gave some life to markets on Friday, but not enough to guarantee another leg higher in weeks ahead.
The first taste of 2025 fourth quarter earnings will present itself in the week ahead. Among the companies worth noting delivering results are the following:
Tuesday: (before open) Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Delta Airlines
Wednesday: (before open) Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Infosys (INFY); (after close) RF Industries (RFIL)
Thursday: (before open) Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), First Horizon (FHN), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM); (after close) J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
Friday: (before open) State Street (STT); M&T Bank (MTB), Regions Financial (RF), PNC (PNC)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Date
1 Mo
1.5 mo
2 Mo
3 Mo
4 Mo
6 Mo
1 Yr
12/05/2025
3.82
3.78
3.77
3.71
3.73
3.68
3.61
12/12/2025
3.76
3.75
3.75
3.63
3.64
3.58
3.54
12/19/2025
3.71
3.71
3.72
3.62
3.64
3.60
3.51
12/26/2025
3.70
3.69
3.72
3.64
3.66
3.58
3.49
01/02/2026
3.72
3.71
3.66
3.65
3.62
3.58
3.47
01/09/2026
3.70
3.68
3.63
3.62
3.62
3.57
3.52
Date
2 Yr
3 Yr
5 Yr
7 Yr
10 Yr
20 Yr
30 Yr
12/05/2025
3.56
3.59
3.72
3.90
4.14
4.75
4.79
12/12/2025
3.52
3.58
3.75
3.95
4.19
4.82
4.85
12/19/2025
3.48
3.53
3.70
3.91
4.16
4.77
4.82
12/26/2025
3.46
3.54
3.68
3.89
4.14
4.76
4.81
01/02/2026
3.47
3.55
3.74
3.95
4.19
4.81
4.86
01/09/2026
3.54
3.59
3.75
3.95
4.18
4.76
4.82
Spreads remain at elevated levels and the key yields are gradually trending higher. It's far too early in the new year to discern any real trends for interest rates, though shorter durations continue to trend toward the upper end. Use of the Fed's emergency repo facility has raised some red flags, but nobody is willing to panic just yet. Give it some time, at least until after the FOMC meeting in two weeks. There are more cockroaches.
WTI crude closed out the week at $58.62, more than a dollar higher than last week's $57.33. The Venezuela effect will likely soon fade, as oil execs widely expressed little interest in spending resources to get the aging infrastructure rebuilt. As time marches on, there may be a print in the $40s. There's still a great deal of uncertainty.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped another two cents, to $2.76, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering Venezuela and the continued global glut.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, down another four cents at $4.19 per gallon, that figure down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.78) is down another two cents, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.30), fell another seven cents. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma holding at $2.17, a multi-year low. All of the Southeast states are below $2.66, including Florida.
In the Northeast, prices continue to decline. Only Vermont ($3.00) and Pennsylvania ($3.02) are at or above $3.00. New York dropped to $2.98.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.86) dropped another penny and remains below $3.00 for a fourth consecutive week. At the low end were Colorado ($2.31), Kansas ($2.37), and Missouri ($2.42).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 42 states, one more than last week and up 15 over the past five weeks. Arizona and New York both fell below the $3.00 threshold. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just six states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.
Bitcoin
This week: $90,633.20
Last week: $91,306.05
2 weeks ago: $87,661.04
6 months ago: $117,568.80
One year ago: $94,559.12
Five years ago: $36,022.09
For now, bitcoin remains stuck in a range between 87,000 and 94,000, which seems unlikely to change. The overall bitcoin downtrend, one that many analysts are saying could reach as low as $50,000 or $30,000 in 2026, appears to be in place with most other "coins" also wavering. One prominent voice has called for a bottom around $10,000, though that would imply an extreme number of beached whales and distress elsewhere outside of crypto.
What's not to like for gold and silver holders? Even with the CME raising margin requirements twice in the last week of December and the widespread fear mongering that the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index would send prices for precious metals into the tank, both gold and silver approached all-time highs by week's end. While the "rebalancing act" will continue through Thursday of the week ahead, the overall effect will be nullified by the huge institutional buying interest and the idea that most experienced traders already priced in Bloomberg's nonsense.
Both metals should continue to rally through 2026 and probably beyond, until something serious breaks, like the global economy.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
Item/Price
Low
High
Average
Median
1 oz silver coin:
80.00
92.00
87.16
87.45
1 oz silver bar:
80.00
91.21
87.36
88.19
1 oz gold coin:
4,674.30
4,959.11
4,802.80
4,814.46
1 oz gold bar:
4,686.89
4,792.94
4,725.20
4,714.75
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ramped higher, to $87.54, a gain of $4.21 from the January 4 price of $83.33 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets.
WEEKEND WRAP
The Trend is often your friend. At this juncture, if you're up, hold the line. If you're down, trim the losers.
At the Close, Friday, January 9, 2025:
Dow: 49,504.07, +237.96 (+0.48%)
NASDAQ: 23,671.35, +191.33 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 6,966.28, +44.82 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: 22,591.73, +106.08 (+0.47%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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