Assessing the performance of the major indices over the course of the week, returns through Thursday’s close show the Dow down 27 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 183 (+0.78%), and the S&P 500 up 53 (+0.77%).
As the final day of trading for January approaches, the major indices haven't shown much, as most of the action has been in commodities, particularly, gold, silver, and platinum, with crude oil catching a bid late in the month (+13.20%). The majors are tightly bunched for the month, and year-to-date, with the Dow leading with a 2.10% gain, followed by NASDAQ (+1.91%) and the S&P (+1.80%).
Silver led the way in the first month of 2026, with a gain of 42%, with gold up 17% year-to-date, both of those reflecting drawdowns overnight on the 29th into the morning of the 30th. Both were considerably higher as of Thursday's close, the COMEX gamers taking their best shot as the week and month draws to a close. Prices for precious metals remain much higher in Shanghai, Singapore, Dubai, Mumbai, and elsewhere. The drawdown is U.S. specific as market fragmentation continues to wreak havoc on U.S. coin dealers and refiners.
It's been widely reported that coin shops are being very judicious in their buying, as they have been flooded with customers looking to unload their gold and/or silver and a number of refiners - to whom the dealers offload inventory - have either closed their doors temporarily due to overstocked conditions and/or are delaying payment for up to a month. This has caused frustration for sellers who routinely expect to receive prices near spot, but are being low-balled or shut out entirely. One place at which reasonably fair prices can be had is on eBay, the online marketplace having the unique characteristic to react to price fluctuations in nearly real time.
Weighing on all markets is the declining dollar, which has fallen to levels on the DXY not seen in four years (96.62), in addition to tensions in the Middle East as U.S. warships steam closer to Iran, threatening an imminent assault.
At 7:00 am ET Friday morning, President Trump announced that he was naming Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, his term to begin on May 15, pending confirmation by the Senate, which is pretty much a formality as Warsh has strong credentials (Harvard Law, Fed Governor 2006-2011).
Trump's choice didn't help markets, sending almost everything lower as Warsh is considered to be hawkish on interest rates. Around 8:30 am ET, Dow futures are down 262, NASDAQ futures are off 180, and S&P futures are down 36 points. Gold and silver have been savaged, with silver at 96.91 and gold down 379 points, right at $5,000. Of course, most of this is for show. Once foreign markets open on Monday (they're already closed for the week), precious metals will likely stage a fairly strong rebound, but for now, all the doubters and reality-deniers will have their day.
Stocks will need some catalyst if they're to finish the month in positive territory and they'll get a little boost from the likes of American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobile (XOM), Colgate Palmolive (CL), all of which reported fourth quarter earnings Friday morning.
In pre-market trading, American Express (AXP) is down 2.5%, Verizon (VZ) is up 4.5%, Chevron (CVX) is flat, ExxonMobile (XOM) is ahead by nearly two percent, and Colgate Palmolive (CL) is up 2.75%.
Visa (V) and Apple (AAPL) reported after the bell Thursday. Both are down marginally, though SAP (SAP) is up by nearly two percent in pre-market trading.
This weekend might avail itself an opportune time to bomb Iran, as there's no major football games (Super Bowl is next weekend), stock market is closed (always Trump's preferred time to begin military actions) and stocks figure to be down to end the week. Will Trump give the go-ahead or will it be another TACO moment?
The January barometer may end up stuck at zero after today, giving stock jockeys little impetus going forward.
At the Close, Thursday, January 29, 2025:
Dow: 49,071.56, +55.96 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 23,685.12, -172.33 (-0.72%)
S&P 500: 6,969.01, -9.02 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 22,875.46, +75.36 (+0.33%)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment