For the record, no amount of bitcoin is going to "fix this."
The last trading day of the month, Friday, January 30, was a bummer for just about everybody, except those invested in oil or natural gas. Everything got sent lower, but especially gold, silver, and bitcoin, the alternatives to fiat currencies that are supposed to save the backsides of all of humankind in the event of a black swan event, systemic collapse of the global economy, or the outbreak of a military conflict between the great powers.
Nothing like that happened, but still, everything, all of a sudden, went down the drain. Somewhat.
Silver, the single asset that had risen the most over the past month, six months, year, etc., dropped by an ungodly amount, from a high of around $121/ounce intraday to close, on the spot market, at $84.63. While the sudden drop alarmed some newbies, seasoned veterans of COMEX/LBMA paper price slams noted that the price was back to where it was on January 13, just a little more than three weeks ago. Silver's one day loss of $30.32 (-26.26%) came on the heels of a tripling in price in 2025, and a meteoric rise from $71.64 at the end of December. At its peak closing price of $118.45, silver was up 65% just in the month of January.
Gold, while it the one day decline of some $489 on January 30 was remarkable, it closed at $4,889.40 on the spot market, about where it was trading on January 22nd, a week and a day prior.
There was little in the way of panic other than the aforementioned newbies and people in paper trades like GLD or SLV. Most experts in the precious metals had been calling for a correction for most of the past two weeks. They got it, albeit in very abrupt fashion and in a larger manner than expected.
Stocks swooned to finish the month and left the Dow, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite with losses on the week, the S&P and Dow Transports up, though both the gains and losses were hardly noticeable, leaving the January Barometer still slightly above break even.
That barometer, which is accurate about 75% of the time, says that a positive January leads to full-year gains. It's not very useful as any kind of gauge since stocks, like the S&P 500 have finished lower for the year only seven times since 1983. So, since the S&P ended the year higher 35 out of the past 42 years - a win rate of 83% - what happens in January isn't statistically important anyway.
Here are where major investments ended January and year-to-date:
Dow: +1.73%
NASDAQ: +0.95%
S&P 500: +1,37%
NYSE Composite: +3.25%
Dow Transports: +5.43%
Gold: +9.31
Silver: +11.23
WTI Crude Oil: +14.49%
Bitcoin: -11.36%
Those numbers offer better perspective. Other than bitcoin, everything was up for the month and so far, 2026, looks pretty good. As for magic crypto money, it isn't too early to beat that particular horse. It's not dead yet, but it sure looks - borrowing from the Rolling Stones description of Mick Jagger's friend, Mr. Jimmy, in the classic, "You Can't Always Get What You Want" - pretty ill (more on this analogy below).
As far as losing money for real and on paper on and off official accounts, precious metals fans are all saying, "wait until Monday," when foreign markets open and trading resumes in Singapore, Shanghai, and other financial centers. Actually, 6:00 pm ET Sunday is when Asian markets open, so, the nervous Nellies don't have long to wait to see how things shake out.
Stocks
General stock performance in terms of the major averages in January was slightly less than hoped for, though one can hardly be disappointed in the longer term results. After all, the S&P 500 has returned 26%, 25%, and 18% the past three years. That's a cumulative gain of 85%, or, a nearly doubling of your money in three years, and that's not counting dividends.
On closer inspection, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P have all had three consecutive weekly losses to close out January, and while the S&P did close at an all time high on Tuesday, 1/27 (6978.60) and made an intraday high on Thursday (7002.28)
The U.S. calendar is loaded with economic data releases in the week beginning February 2. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing Prices come out on Monday. JOLTS job openings are announced on Tuesday. ADP private payrolls plus S&P Global Services and Composite PMI are all slated for Wednesday morning. Initial jobless claims, as usual, come Thursday, and Firday's January Nonfarm Payrolls, expected to be 45-65,000, close out the week.
The week ahead is overflowing with earnings reports. Here are some of the more widely-held and notable:
Monday: (before open) Walt Disney (DIS), Hess Midstream (HESM), Napco (NSSC), Tyson (TSN); (after close) Rambus (RMBS), Palantir (PLTR), Teradyne (TER)
Tuesday: (before open) Fubo (FUBO), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Pepsico (PEP), PayPal (PYPL); (after close) Amgen (AMGN), Chubb (CB), AMD (AMD), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), SuperMicro (SMCI)
Wednesday: (before open) Johnson Controls (JCI), Novo Nordisk ((NVO), Lilly (LLY), Uber (UBER), Abbvie (ABBV), Boston Scientific (BSX), CME Group (CME); (after close) Alphabet (GOOG), Qualcomm (QCOM), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY), Snap (SNAP), Crown Castle (CCI)
Thursday: (before open) Shell (SHEL), Estee Lauder (EL), Barrick (B), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Cummings ((CMI); (after close) Reddit (RDDT), Amazon (AMZN), Strategy (MSTR), Roblox (RBLX)
Friday: (before open) Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Biogen (BIIB), CBOE (CBOE), AutoNation (AN), Under Armour (UAA)
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.64 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.49 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.66 | 3.65 | 3.62 | 3.58 | 3.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 3.57 | 3.52 |
| 01/16/2026 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.78 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.70 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.53 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 3.48 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 3.89 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 4.81 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.47 | 3.55 | 3.74 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.81 | 4.86 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3.54 | 3.59 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.18 | 4.76 | 4.82 |
| 01/16/2026 | 3.59 | 3.67 | 3.82 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.60 | 3.67 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.24 | 4.78 | 4.82 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.01 | 4.26 | 4.82 | 4.87 |
With the FOMC standing pat on the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%, one month bills drifted lower, from 3.77 to 3.72, Thursday and Friday. Thus far, the Federal reserv's attempts at Yield Curve Control, focused on the 10-year note benchmark, has kept fixed income markets from signaling anything but complacency. However, stresses are evident from the elevated level of the 30 year yield (4.87%), and widening spreads.
While yield on the 10-year note rose a mere two basis points, to 4.26, it does continue creeping higher. The two-year yield of 3.52% - eight basis points below last Friday - widened the already massive spread on 2s-10s to +74, while full spectrum (30-days to 30-years) also expanded, to 115 basis points. Both are at or near the highest levels in two years, which is overall healthy.
What Fed officials are likely more concerned about is the structure of bond buyers. Foreigners are increasingly not increasing their purchases, opting for the latest reserve currency, gold, instead. The Fed faces the under-appreciated problem of too much debt issuance by the federal government against a declining, skeptical buying community, and that may be the point of the current administration: to untether the U.S. from reserve currency status and allow free markets to determine credit-worthiness.
Considering that the U.S. dollar has fallen from 107.44 the day before Trump's inauguration to a low of 96.22 (January 27, 2026) before Friday's abrupt jump to 97.15, that appears to be one campaign promise the upon which the president has delivered. The lower dollar makes exports more marketable, though it has the opposite effect on imports, a matter to which most U.S. consumers can readily understand. Simple math says that as the cost of living increases, the standard of living declines. Truth, and an indication of the intent of tariff policies.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $65.74, up sharply from last week's close of $61.28 and the second consecutive week closing out above $60 and the highest price for oil since late September. Wile there remains an oil glut, geopolitical tensions and the practice of oil tanker seizures have lowered confidence and increased risk, taking price higher. Unless the Trump administration dials back some of the bellicose rhetoric and all of the kinetic activity around Venezuela, Greenland, and especially Iran, the price of oil is going to continue to rise, putting an end to the low-price vacation that's been had by U.S. and European drivers who fill up regularly.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained at $2.87 for a second straight week. Frigid conditions across most of the country and rising Mideast tensions contributed to the near term price gains.
California ramped up another dime this week, at $4.31 per gallon, the highest in the nation. Washington ($3.89) was a seven cents higher, but still leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.38), was up six cents. Arizona held steady at $2.96, remaining under $3.00 for the third straight week. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, the low-price leader, down a nickel to $2.34, followed by Louisiana ($2.36), and Mississippi at $2.38, Arkansas at $2.40, and Texas ($2.43). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina west to New Mexico, are all below $2.69, except Florida ($2.91).
In the Northeast, prices were steady and consistently low. Only Pennsylvania ($3.08) was above $3.00. New York gained a bit, to $2.97, along with Vermont ($2.98).
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois regained the high ground, at $2.90, with Michigan close behind at $2.89. Kansas was the lowest ($2.43), followed by North Dakota ($2.45) and Minnesota ($2.50).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in 43 of the lower 48 states, same as last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $77,242.74
Last week: $88,556.82
2 weeks ago: $95,065.81
6 months ago: $113,941.10
One year ago: $99,655.54
Five years ago: $39,255.36
More and more, bitcoin appears to be dead money and this week's decline sets in motion further drops into a previously-dangerous zone below $74,000. All the "hodler" types have effectively moved into the next-door-neighbor's basement, unable to support their crypto lifestyle. Since crypto as a whole is the greatest scam since the 17t-century tulip mania, or maybe Charles Ponzi's Florida Real Estate debacle, it figures that the granddaddy of the crypto community (now a whopping 17 years along), might take some of the biggest lumps first. While bitcoin gets battered like a farmhand wife, others, like Ethereum, Dogecoin, Solana, and Cardano have taken their fair share of abuse (another Rolling Stones reference).
Year-to-date, here's the performance of bitcoin and others:
Bitcoin: -11.36%
Ether: -22.33%
Dogecoin: -12.08%
Cardano: -13.23%
Solana: -18.93%
What fun!
Taking the moral from the Rolling Stones analogy, coiners may take comfort in, "You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get what you need." If it's out of the system currency you desire, there's still gold, silver, and moving to South America available. Best of luck.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 57.74; last week: 48.46
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 1/2: $4,341,90
Gold price 1/9: $4,518.40
Gold price 1/16: $4,601.10
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Silver price 1/2: $72.26
Silver price 1/9: $79.79
Silver price 1/16: $89.94
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/2: $4,331.09
Gold 1/9: $4,508.08
Gold 1/16: $4,595.42
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Silver 1/2: $72.25
Silver 1/9: $79.34
Silver 1/16: $89.94
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
As everybody probably already knows, gold and silver took a pretty big hit on Friday, January 30. Analysts and pundits have been warning about a pullback, and boy, did they ever get one. Being that it was so abrupt and recent, one can only speculate as to the cause. Everybody didn't all at once decide it was time to take profits and cash in their coins, bars and jewelry. That would have been an impossibility. In fact, many dealers have closed their doors temporarily or put limits on redemptions, some offering 10 or 20% below spot and only on quantities of 100 or more ounces of silver or 10-20 ounces of gold. Local coin shops are being terrorized by fast-moving prices and seller demands. Buyers seeking silver close to spot will be sadly disappointed, as the weekly eBay survey shows median and average prices for silver remaining above $100 per ounce.
It's likely to take an extended period of sub-$100 silver prices to depress retail demand significantly enough to get premia down closer to spot, so the mantra for most of Sunday remains: Wait Until Monday. Holders of bullion, coins, stackers, goldbugs and owners with physical metal in their possession aren't about to unload here. The table's been set. What happened was some squirrels got into the banquet hall and ran roughshod over the china, crystal, and silverware. Once the little rodents are routed, precious metals can get back to what they do best, protecting wealth from evil influences.
One note on Friday's collapse: the only public fund investing in silver futures in mainland China, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund, a listed open-ended fund, was suspended for the whole day Friday, the second such halt since January 22.
Noting that, the slam in gold and silver may have been necessary to keep a significant bank (UBS) from defaulting on multiple obligations and becoming insolvent, which is not something, like pregnancy, one can accomplish half-heartedly. One is either pregnant or not. Same with insolvency. Many financial institutions that have frolicked in the precious meadows fields for years with shorting antics may be feeling not a small amount of pain presently.
In case anybody thinks that Friday's action - as unusual as it was - is a one-off, likely not to be repeated, this could be only the beginning of extreme measures taken by LOFs (Lovers of Fiat) in opposition to sound money advocates.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 96.00 | 119.75 | 107.57 | 107.62 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 94.00 | 112.94 | 105.64 | 105.63 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 5,077.39 | 5,304.62 | 5,183.69 | 5,190.00 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 5,103.19 | 5,281.08 | 5,169.09 | 5,128.93 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a pretty big hit this week, falling to $106.62, a decline of $10.38 from the January 25 price of $117.00 per troy ounce. The weekly movement reflects wider volatility in world markets and growing retail investment in smaller, finished products, from grams to 1/2-ounce, 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce coins and bars.
WEEKEND WRAP
Incidentally, the FDIC announced on Friday the first bank failure of 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust operated a single office in Chicago with total assets of $261.1 million as of September 30, 2025. First Independence Bank agreed to assume deposits totaling $212.1 million at closing. Not anything big, at all. Just another case of unsound speculation by people who are supposed to know better.
Not a big deal. Monday is coming soon enough.
At the Close, Friday, January 30, 2026:
Dow: 48,892.47, -179.09 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 23,461.82, -223.30 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 6,939.03, -29.98 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 22,719.32, -156.13 (-0.68%)
For the Week:
Dow: -206.24 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ: -39.42 (-0.17%)
S&P 500: +23.42 (+0.34%)
NYSE Composite: -37.84 (-0.17%)
Dow Transports: +100.68 (+0.55%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
Posts
