Everything was going just swimmingly last week until Friday's Supreme Court decision derailed President Trump's signature tariff policy, saying, in a 6-3 decision, that the tariffs imposed by President Trump were not lawful (some may say, illegal) under the terms of the IEEPA. The ruling sets in motion discussion and almost certainly, lawsuits, from countries and/or companies that paid the tariffs and will subsequently seek refunds.
In the meantime, Trump made a sweeping declaration, imposing 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports, raising it to 15% (the maximum allowable by law) hours later. The law gives the president 150 days of tariff authority without congressional approval under trade law section 122. Trump has other options, including the use of Section 301, to impose tariffs on countries deemed "unjustifiable" or "burdens or restricts" US business interests.
Probably nothing, but in light of the Supreme Court ruling Friday, India cancelled a trade delegation's trip to DC. Recall just a few weeks ago, the Boaster-in-Chief was hailing his "deal" with India as a major accomplishment. He also suggested that India had halted their buying of Russian crude oil and promised to purchase $500 billion worth of American goods and services. Um, no.
There was little to no discernible market impact from the court ruling or Trump's latest dictate. Stocks rose on Friday as the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford steamed through the Mediterranean en route to the Arabian Sea where it would join the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, ostensibly preparing for an assault on Iran, essentially because the Iranians don't like he idea of leaving themselves defenseless against America, Israel, or anybody else, for that matter.
Lost in conversation was the BEA report of 4th quarter 2025 GDP collapsing to 1.4%, dropping the 225 full year GDP to a disappointing 2.25%, or the PCE index remaining relatively stable at 2.6%.
The week's events leave the U.S. economic picture just a little bit muddier. Probably nothing.
Stocks
This week, Wall Street declared the selling off of companies primarily in the business of software because of the treat from AI to be over.
It's not. It's only just begun.
Oracle (ORCL), Intuit (INTU), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and AppLovin (APP) lost between 13% and 30% over the past month. Adobe was hit the least (13.72%); Intuit the most (30.52%). The main culprit appears to be Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 AI product, which made a quantum leap over previous versions in terms of computational skills and coding knowledge.
These companies and others are at serious risk unless they can quickly incorporate AI into their product mix. They may be doomed no matter what they do, as AI operability is scaling quickly and Anthropic's model is very good at writing code and producing apps.
Stocks managed to fight off nagging negative news and continue pumping money into the bubble. Stock valuations are at their highest level in history, as if U.S. industrial and business dominance overrides excessive debt and obvious ploys like stock buyback programs to artificially boost corporate earnings. As always, the sky's the limit, until it isn't.
In volume terms, this was one of the most sluggish weeks in recent memory. Market participants are looking for some kind of catalyst and they'r not getting any from earnings, AI buildout or job-crunching fears, or the "bomb Iran" waiting game.
Earnings season is winding down. The most important earnings reports will be fiew and spread across the week with focus on miners, retailers Home Depot and TJX, and Dow component, Salesforce. Nvidia is likely to take all the air out of the room Thursday, reporting after the close Wednesday.
Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Dominion Energy (D), FreshPet (FRPT); (after close) Kratos (KTOS), Primoris (PRM), Hims|Hers (HIMS)
Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), NRG (NRG), Planet Fitness (PLNT); (after close) AMC Entertainment (AMC), Cava (CAVA), Mercado Libre (MELI), Workday (WDAY), First Solar (FSLR), HP Inc. (HPQ)
Wednesday: (before open) TJX Companies (TJX), Photronics (PLAB), Lowe’s (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Synopsis (SNPS),
Thursday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Rackspace (RXT), Royal Bank of Canada (RY); (after close) Dell (DELL), CoreWeave (CRWV)
Friday: (before open) Endeavor Silver (EXK), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Globalstar (GSAT)
The week ahead is light on data, including Factory Orders on Monday, Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller home price index for December, December Wholesale inventories, and February Consumer Confidence preceding President Trump's State of the Union address. Thursday has initial and continuing jobless claims and Friday closes out the week with the February Producer Price Index (PPI) before the bell.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2026 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.78 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.70 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.53 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 3.48 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.45 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.42 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.61 | 3.51 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/2026 | 3.59 | 3.67 | 3.82 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| 01/23/2026 | 3.60 | 3.67 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 4.24 | 4.78 | 4.82 |
| 01/30/2026 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.01 | 4.26 | 4.82 | 4.87 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3.50 | 3.57 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| 02/13/2026 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.61 | 3.81 | 4.04 | 4.64 | 4.69 |
| 02/20/2026 | 3.48 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 4.08 | 4.66 | 4.72 |
There was very little movement in fixed income, similar to the sluggishness demonstrated in equities. Almost not worth reporting, spreads were flat, with 2s-10s at +60 and full spectrum at +100. The biggest move was in 2-year notes, with yields up 8 basis points, though still well below recent levels. 1-month bills remained moored at 3.72% for the fourth week running.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
Oil/Gas
WTI crude ended the week at $66.31, the largest weekly gain in eight months, from the close last week at $60.58. Tensions in the Middle East continue to drive speculation in crude, with the Strait of Hormuz a tipping point. While there's a contingent of traders who believe the strait would be shut down by Iran in the case of a U.S. attack, there's also an argument that closing off oil flows would not serve Iran well, given their major customer is China. It would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot.
It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, and that a focused assault could rapidly escalate into a regional or wider war, drawing in other Mideast nations and possibly China and Russia. Such a scenario remain an open possibility since Iran sees the current amassing of force off its coast as an existential threat, similar to Russia's view of the Ukraine situation. Should hostilities spread beyond Iran, the price of oil would almost certainly rise, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormus remained open or closed.
The markets prefer a short, quick resolution, though the reality is that nothing indicates a quick strike or resolution. There's a better chance that whatever occurs in the Middle East is going to rage on for months and possibly years as it serves the interests of both the U.S. and Israel to keep the world in chaos and continual conflict.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump remained flat for the week, at $2.92 by Sunday.
California rose another five cents this week, to $4.60 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 29 cents in just the past three weeks. Washington ($4.27) remained in the $4+ club for a second straight week, up a whopping 15 cents. Oregon ($3.81), was up 20 cents. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a third straight week, rising six cents to $3.22. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma well below any other state, at $2.30, followed by Arkansas ($2.40) and Louisiana ($2.41). Texas checks in at $2.43. The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.70) west to New Mexico ($2.50), are all below $2.70, except Florida ($2.87).
In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.14) was above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98, along with Vermont ($3.00).
In the midwest region, Illinois remained the highest, though down eight cents at $2.92, with Michigan next, at $2.83. Kansas was the lowest ($2.45), followed by North Dakota ($2.46).
Sub-$3.00 gas was the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, one fewer than last week, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above.
Bitcoin
This week: $67,651.35
Last week: $68,948.18
2 weeks ago: $71,145.72
6 months ago: $115,468.40
One year ago: $96,443.38
Five years ago: $46,158.54
Bitcoin couldn't even get as high as $68,700 this week. It's painfully obvious that the bloom is off this particular rose. ETF flows have been negative for weeks and the Ponzi seems to be collapsing upon itself. Almost nobody uses crypto as a means of exchange and as a store of value, it's a complete flop. There is almost no use case for cyrpto other than a slush fund for nefarious activity.
Bitcoin miners are turning their expansive networks of servers toward AI, closing out their chase for bitcoin rewards, which don't even cover the cost of electricity and hardware. Say goodbye to this obvious fraud within 18 months, if that long.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.66; last week: 65.32
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 1/23: $4,983.10
Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Silver price 1/23: $103.26
Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/23: $4,989.23
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Silver 1/23: $102.95
Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Surprisingly, the COMEX/LBMA price suppression cartel didn't take Lunar New Year as an opportunity to crash metals prices while Chinese markets were closed. In fact, the opposite occurred, with both metals rising, especially sharply on Friday, the last open trading day before markets in the East open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday evening.
Anybody hoping to buy the dip got outflanked by bullish trends prevailing. Friday's move higher might have been related to the situation in the Middle East, though it's difficult to tell. Volatility is likely to be maintained, but, for all intents and purposes, direction in gold and silver prices seems to have returned to a positive stance.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 88.51 | 100.00 | 94.27 | 94.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 88.00 | 107.50 | 97.82 | 98.59 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 5,322.92 | 5,627.34 | 5,467.43 | 5,462.11 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 5,315.58 | 5,514.23 | 5,389.86 | 5,384.80 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose marginally, to $96.17, a gain of 93 cents from the February 15 price of $95.24 per troy ounce. Premiums remain elevated.
The weekly eBay price survey revealed that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers have adjusting to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% for small denominations.
WEEKEND WRAP
Tariffs, trade, the flow of oil, military conflict, AI encroachment, probably nothing...
At the Close, Friday, February 20, 2026:
Dow: 49,625.97, +230.81 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 22,886.07, +203.34 (+0.90%)
S&P 500: 6,909.51, +47.62 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 23,452.60, +94.32 (+0.40%)
For the Week:
Dow: +125.04 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: +339.40 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: +73.34 (+1.07%)
NYSE Composite: +126.51 (+0.54%)
Dow Transports: +497.86 (+2.57%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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