Following President Trump's rather fruitless trip to China and with zero resolution to condition in the Middle East, stock traders cashed out their options and sent stocks reeling on Friday, wiping out what looked to be another positive week on the maligned market for equities.
Also pertinent was the disdain for U.S. treasuries, especially on the long end with 30-year yields rocketing past five percent and 10-year yields spiking above 4.50%. Those represent starting points for Kevin Warsh's reign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, starting June 1 and operationally serve as useful fodder for Trump's insistence for lower rates. Bond vigilantes are likely in broad disagreement, setting up some fireworks in the usually staid world of fixed income.
With oil flows still disrupted, the questioning public may query Big Oil and the government about why the U.S. exports oil at profit instead of serving the public interest by shoring up domestic supply, keeping the price of gas at the pump and in heating oil at sustainable levels. The cynical - and probably correct - answer is that the entities in control of U.S. energy supplies couldn’t care less about the needs of the citizenry.
Getting ever closer to a FU moment in the U.S., many patriotic serfs are gravitating away from the status quo, shedding political cover and moving closer to local and individual needs. Fiefdoms and regional warlords could become real things.
Last week's CPI and PPI readings were the worst in years, proving, once again, that central planners at the Fed and in the Treasury Department have their heads stuck firmly in the grips of their own anuses, a preferred position, it appears.
Moving on...
Stocks
Gains were completely wiped out by Friday's market dump, which looked very much like a rug-pull moment, but is not likely to be sustained. Wall Street, profitable on both sides of trades, does prefer gains over losses and all a deep dive does is put in place a rationale for buying the dip and sending stocks higher amid shouts from the Boaster-in-Chief about being the "hottest" (tell the truth, don't you hate when he says that?) economy in the world.
The week ahead will offer a piddling of dated first quarter results from suspect retailers and others. Since it's nearly June, these announcements will have little impact on current levels, as an economic shift is underway, but, here they are:
Monday: (before open) ReNew Power (RNW), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Agilysis (AGYS)
Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), Vertiv (VRT); (after close) Toll Borthers (TOL), Red Robin (RRGB),
Wednesday: (before open) Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW, TJX (TJX), Hasbro (HAS), Analog Devices (ADI); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Intuit (INTU), Urban Outfitters (URBN)
Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Ralph Lauren (RL); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION)
Friday: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.
The outlook for the week ahead is clouded, to say the least. The ancient adage, "sell in May and go away," may be appropriate.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2026 | 3.67 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.70 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.64 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.67 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.76 | 3.71 | 3.73 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.69 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.75 |
| 05/15/2026 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.76 | 3.77 | 3.82 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2026 | 3.81 | 3.80 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.31 | 4.89 | 4.91 |
| 04/17/2026 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.26 | 4.85 | 4.88 |
| 04/24/2026 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.88 | 4.91 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3.88 | 3.91 | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.96 | 4.97 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.19 | 4.38 | 4.93 | 4.95 |
| 05/15/2026 | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.26 | 4.43 | 4.59 | 5.14 | 5.12 |
Interest rates (yields) shot straight up late this week, the continuation of a trend that began in early 2022, at the end of the covid fright and start of the Ukraine fiasco when the Federal Funds target rate had been slashed to near zero. The evolving global economy necessitated rising yields to slow runaway inflation and that trend will likely be exacerbated by continuation of military escapades and choking off of supply chains.
Amid a frightening and increasingly-polarized global economic oulook, lending money to the heavily-indebted U.S. government at any maturity longer than a year might raise the question of "return of equity" bayond the usual "return on equity."
At 10 years, a reasonable expectation might be in the range of 5.50-6.25% and beyond that for 30-year bonds, which may be nearing an extinction level event, precipitating the need for false-fronting "stablecoins" which are nothing more than currency chimeras and utterly worthless.
Rates sprung forward over the past week, with a spike of 19 basis points in 2-year notes, 21 on the 10-year and 17 on the 30-year sending spreads into the stratosphere, with 2s-10s at an even +50 and full spectrum topping out at a ghastly +141.
While certain borrowers may drool over the lavish boosts in yields, longer term trends suggest an unhappy ending with the journey to insolvency a minefield of failed policy and nervy speculation. For the U.S. and other debt-laden governments, the costs of servicing their bloated borrowings will outstrip all other expenditures, guaranteeing the ultimate default. Argentina has shown the way. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will precede the U.S. down that unhappy pathway.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
Oil/Gas
WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $101.16, higher substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $94.68, though still in the recent range of $90-110.
President Trump's wasted China visit late in the week sent stocks lower and oil prices higher. With no resolution in the Middle East, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran may move in unanticipated directions. With Iran in control over the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade further out in the Golf of Oman and into the India Ocean, it should be expected that alternative routes will develop and they have, with Iran employing the Caspian Sea and rail routes east to Pakistan and China. Eventually, Iran has an upper hand, given that the number of oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf outnumbers U.S. ships able to intercept them.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.48 this week, little changed. Americans increasingly are begrudgingly accepting their fate of higher gas prices, but are beginning to express displeasure with government policies, feeling the weight of their chains, so to speak. Intentioal or otherwise, the federal government and many states and localities are pressuring middle and lower-income families, stretching household budgets near breaking points. Unless the president changes course soon or congress gets off their lazy, overdeveloped rumps, the likelihood of mass civil disobedience increases.
In the meantime, Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $6.13 (-0.01)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.95 (+0.03)
Florida: $3.17 (-0.25)
Illinois: $5.05 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.58 (+0.03)
Maryland: $4.45 (-0.01)
Michigan: $4.83 (+0.12)
Texas: $3.92 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (-0.07)
On Sunday, May 17th, there are just four (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, up from 4 last week, and 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.65) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as the averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.
Bitcoin (aka, Trash)
This week: $78,015.76
Last week: $80,800.68
2 weeks ago: $78,694.80
6 months ago: $90,089.49
One year ago: $103,298.00
Five years ago: $37,482.21
"Hodlers" of six months to a year are down sharply, with only deep thinkers like Michael Saylor keeping the faith. With the U.S. congress moving forward on the CLARITY act this past week, the tom-foolery approaches the highest level of clown world. Cynthia Lummis, junior senator from Wyoming, otherwise known as Cheneyland, leads the charge toward government sponsored CBDCs.
From Wikipedia:
Lummis graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Bachelor of Science degree in animal science in 1976 and a Bachelor of Science in biology in 1978. She graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Juris Doctor in 1985, and was on the dean's list. She worked as a student teacher at Rock River School in 1977.
The perfect choice to sponsor crypto legislation.
What the world needs is a new currency regime based on gold and silver, not vaporware cryptocurrencies. Guess which one the government favors most. The people operating the govenment are about as useful as an umbrella during a hurricane.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.75; last week: 58.68
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
On Friday, with stocks hammered within the international geo-political stalemate, it made perfect sense for precious metals to take sizable losses. Actually, no. The LBMA/COMEX cabal complex continues operational, suppressing prices, albeit at higher levels than years prior. Taking everything into perspective, gold and silver may continue to be affected negatively if stocks continue to vacillate and national economies begin to falter into recession.
The alternative - converting to fiat - is not very attractive, though selling off part of one's stack for ready cash may prove to be prescient. On the other hand, precious metals are meant to be hedges against currency debasement and all manner of economic events. How one manages one's wealth all depends on personal perspectives, portfolio allocations, and investment horizons. To each his own, it seems, riding the waves in the economic lifeboats of choice.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 78.95 | 99.59 | 87.01 | 87.48 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 80.00 | 92.25 | 86.44 | 87.38 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4736.77 | 4859.65 | 4776.06 | 4771.83 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4716.01 | 4785.00 | 4742.79 | 4742.30 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell modestly, to $87.08, a decline of $1.59 from the May 10 price of $88.67 per troy ounce and within the recent range.
WEEKEND WRAP
An inclination to utter cynical or pessimistic phrases to describe current economic conditions may be a sign of extreme dissatisfaction and completely normal. Disruptions to the regular flow of goods, services and the normal functioning of national economies has been fomented by reckless and feckless leadership of Western nations, especially in the United States.
It's perfectly OK to occasionally utter "screw this" or "F them" in response to conditions created to subjugate the human race in favor of a handful of elitists with megalomaniacal intentions.
If so, you've got plenty of miserable company.
At the Close, Friday, May 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,526.17, -537.29 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,225.15, -410.08 (-1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,408.50, -92.74 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: 22,799.43, -302.42 (-1.31%)
For the Week:
Dow: -82.99 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: -21.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: +9.57 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: -142.72 (-0.62%)
Dow Transports: -64.56 (-0.32%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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