WEEKEND WRAP: A Quiet Week Ahead as U.S.A. Celebrates 250 Years, 3rd Quarter Commences; May Be a Slow Summer with Lower Gas Prices

Editor's Note: Being that it's a quiet holiday weekend and the immediacy of a medical issue (friend with appendicitis), Money Daily is going to dispatch with most of the usual commentary. We'll pick things up on Tuesday. --FR

The United States has surpassed 250 years of existence. The next 250 we'll leave to future historians.

Stocks

All the major indices ramped higher into the holiday weekend, the Dow posting its fourth straight weekly gain and sixth in the last seven. Friday's Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS had minimal effect, with 57,000 new jobs reported, and prior months revised lower. The Dow and NASDAQ took radically different takes on the employment condition, with the Dow spiking to record highs and the NASDAQ taking another bump lower.

Second quarter earnings are still a week off, with banks and financial companies reporting the week beginning July 13. In the week ahead, just a few early reports will be released. On Wednesday, Helen of Troy (HELE) and Levi-Strauss (LEVI) report. Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Pepsico (PEP), with Friday reserved for Delta Airlines (DAL).

U.S. balance of Trade gets reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Wholesale Inventories for June and Fed Minutes from the June meeting are released. Thursday's report of Existing Home Sales for June leads the housing market. The Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is Friday. A pretty light week overall.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98

Treasury yields reversed course this week on continued speculation that the Federal Reserve would hike the federal funds target rate in an effort to stave off inflation, though there remains scant evidence that the Fed entertains any such plans other the usual "dot plot" of FOMC members, which are only opinions and usually incorrect. Nonetheless, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, crept closer to the Maginot lines at 4.50% and 5.00%, respectively.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed would raise rates at either the July or September meetings moved considerably, with an 80% likelihood that rates would remain at the 3.50-3.75% level in July (7/29) and an even split between 3.50-3.75% and 3.75-4.00% at the September meeting (9/16). Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum widened.

Smart money says the Fed does nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $68.78 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, dropping from last week's closing price of $70.24, as the fragile peace in the Middle East is extended and Americans celebrate 250 years of independence from British rule.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.81 last week and $3.72 this week, as President Trump cajoles and threatens Big Oil over the price of a gallon of unleaded regular. His contention that gas prices should be lower is based upon the recent prices for crude oil, which is back to levels of late February and early March. The national average price at the pump was around $3.15 at the time. The president fails to take into account that the oil companies must deplete gas that cost considerably more before lowering the price to meet the current reality. Gas has been trending lower and should continue to do so, as long as peace in the Middle East is maintained.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but those will need to be rebuilt. The IEA continues to suggest that there will be a glut in 2027 of around four million barrels a day, a condition which, if achieved, will send gas prices well below $3.00.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.33 (-0.06)
Washington: $5.02 (-0.14)
Indiana (lowest): $3.05 (-0.17)
Oklahoma : $3.24 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.36 (-0.06)
Florida: $3.76 (-0.02)
Illinois: $3.96 (-0.15)
Pennsylvania: $3.95 (-0.06)
New York: $4.03 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.69 (-0.05)
Michigan: $4.95 (-0.14)
Texas: $3.27 (+0.03)
Georgia: $3.50 (-0.04)

On Sunday, July 5th, there are six (6) states with average prices above $4.00, with 42 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($4.77), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past six weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.50) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.44 to $3.60. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.05) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $62,699.50
Last week: $60,194.49
2 weeks ago: $64,068.87
6 months ago: $92,624.93
One year ago: $108,114.00
Five years ago: $33,513.73

Bitcoin slumped to a low near $57,000 on July 2nd, the lowest price since September, 2024. The price of an imaginary "coin" rebounded over the weekend, but to levels that are insignificant in the long scheme of things.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.66; last week: 69.12

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30

Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76

Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93

Here's what we said last week, which is still relevant:

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	83.00	72.47	70.00
1 oz silver bar:	64.33	83.45	74.92	75.61
1 oz gold coin:	4250.00	4743.43	4424.58	4405.00
1 oz gold bar:	4200.00	4428.69	4343.56	4355.67

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) held steady, finishing the week at $73.25, for a gian of 21 cents per troy ounce from the June 28 price of $73.04.

WEEKEND WRAP

It's July. Wall Street usually steps back a bit at this time and volumes are generally lower. It appears that the U.S. may go through most of the summer without any major events happening outside the World Cup, Major League Baseball and the tennis U.S. Open. The Fed, under the fresh chairmanship of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to do anything rash. Stocks probably won't turn one way or the other until there's some kind of meaningful change, either in the geo-political sphere or the AI buildout.

The one area which may see movement is in precious metals, which have been surpressed severely since making all-time highs in January. Even a modest rally from current levels could leave gold and silver flat for the year, though still well off the January highs.

At the Close, Friday, July 2, 2026:
Dow: 52,900.07, +594.83 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 25,832.67, -207.36 (-0.80%)
S&P 500: 7,483.24, +0.01 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 23,957.08, +219.90 (+0.93%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1023.96 (+1.97%)
NASDAQ: +535.05 (+2.12%)
S&P 500: +129.22 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: +267.85 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: +189.28 (+0.87%)

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