Intel and Amazon Earnings Reports Send Shock Waves Through Tech Sector as Midterm Narrative Begins to Crumble and Bubbles Pop

On Thursday, it was Google (Alphabet, GOOGL) dragging down the NASDAQ, sending a stern warning to the rest of the market that stock prices have been and continue to be extraordinarily overpriced and a reckoning with value was on the way.

Sentiment on Wall Street - not contained to only AI hyperscalers and chip-makers - has turned downright ugly late Thursday into Friday morning after Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) reported third quarter earnings results after the bell.

Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.89, both below Wall Street consensus estimates. Massive infrastructure investments on AI buildout have weighed heavily on the company's liquidity, resulting in a reported quarterly negative free cash flow outflow of approximately $42.4 billion. The company reiterated its 2026 commitment of $220 billion to support AI data centers. Investors were not at all humored, sending shares down initially b more than 10%. In Friday's pre-market trade, Amazon is down between six and seven percent.

Intel absolutely floored the street, delivering adjusted non-GAAP earnings of $0.52 per share, easily surpassing Wall Street expectations around $0.40 per share, but future guidance projected revenue between $15.0 billion and $16.0 billion, well below the $17.08 billion expected. Projected adjusted EPS of $0.25 also severely missed consensus estimates of roughly $0.44, citing continued weakness in the personal computer market, where Intel chips are pre-eminent. Heading toward Friday's opening bell, shares of the chip-maker are down 25%.

As a reminder of the evils of fascism afoot:

In August 2025, the U.S. federal government became Intel’s largest single shareholder by purchasing 433.3 million newly issued shares at $20.47 per share, representing a 9.9% ownership of the company.

How's that working out for taxpayers who never had a say in that deal? Just wonderful. America deserves to own 10% of more shitty companies that are overburdened with debt and about to go bankrupt. It's a good thing the government bought into this failing enterprise near the multi-year lows and drove the stock to unsustainable and simply irrational highs earlier this year. The speculators who drove the price have likely already cashed in the chips (pun intended) and moved on to greener pasture. The government will be stuck with a company worth less than $15 per share by the end of 2027, if not sooner. The collapse of this and other tech companies is already well underway and gaining momentum.

Other companies reporting after the close Thursday include:
Reddit (RDDT) - Top and bottom beats, but CEO Steve Huffman said search traffic declined by more than 1 million referrals on average per week during October, sending shares down 20% pre-market
Twillio (TWLO) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down nearly 20% on valuation concerns
Rivian (RIVN) - Solid EPS and revenue sends e-vehicle maker up 6% (adjusted loss of 48 cents)
Starbucks (SBUX) - EPS beat, revenue in-line, stock is flat pre-market
Sandisk (SNDK) - Beats top and bottom, announces 8-for-1 stock split, shares down 8% on valuation, future guidance concerns
Roblox (RBLX) - EPS -0.32 send stock down 17%

Friday morning, before open:
Regeneron (REGN) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 8%
AutoNation (AN) - EPS, revenue mostly in-line, shares up 2-3%
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Beat top and bottom, shares higher by 4%
General Dynamics (GD) - reports at 9:00 am ET, shares up 3% pre-market
British Petroleum (BP) - EPS, revenue beats, stock flat
ExxonMobil (XOM) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 2%
Chevron (CVX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 1-2%

Clearly, tech wreckage is widespread and probably just getting started. The AI buildout bubble, to which Mag7 and other companies have devoted hundreds of billions in Capex, is being popped. The timing could not be worse for Republicans seeking to hold majorities in the House and Senate on eelction day next Tuesday (Nov. 3). Not surprisingly, three big oil companies - ExxonMobil, Chevron, and British Petroleum - all posted positive results and solid profits, thanks to oil and gas prices that are up 60-80% over the past year. The squeeze on working class and small business is like a wrecking ball to the economy, pinching margins for small businesses while crimping the spending patterns by consumers. Higher gas and food prices are crowding out spending in other categories, particularly in discretionary sectors.

There's no limit to the degree of carnage that will come from the tech bust and misguided government policies that are sending ordinary Americans deeper into debt and straining household budgets. The hubris of government and big tech is that they've ignored the obvious calculus: without consumer spending, which is 60-70% of the economy, their revenue and profits will suffer. For the government, tax receipts have nearly doubled since 2020, but expenditures have grown at a faster rate, including interest on the debt, which has exploded to a level approaching an insolvent condition.

Wall Street and the government's continued propping up of businesses that are either failing or extremely overvalued has created an unstable, treacherous environment and considerable cracks in the facade are beginning to show.

For the week, through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 147 points, the NASDAQ is up 229, and the S&P is ahead by 96 points, but those gains may be lost as the last trading day of October commences. Stock futures have the Dow up 20 points, the S&P down 80, and the NASDAQ showing a massive decline of more than 700 points.

What goes up, often comes down. Reversion to the mean can be an unpleasant trip.

At the Close, Thursday, October 29, 2026:
Dow: 52,342.56, -132.54 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 26,184.73, -365.13 (-1.38%)
S&P 500: 7,720.39, -23.59 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 24,517.23, +255.95 (+1.05%)

Alphabet Shows AI Striking Against Core Ad Revenue; GDP Up 3.4% in 3rd Quarter; PCE Index Hits 3.6%, Fueling Inflation and Rate Hike Expectations

With the Federal Reserve's FOMC deciding to keep the federal funds target interest rate at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, stocks traders took the non-event in stride, with stocks barely budging from levels seen before the 2:00 pm ET announcement.

With the market turning in another in a series of lackluster sessions, the real excitement of the day was reserved for after the close, when two Mag7 heavyweights - Alphabet and Microsoft - released third quarter results.

The results could not have been more starkly different.

Alphabet (GOOGL), parent company of Google, saw its stock slip more than 11% in post-market trading after the company missed targets on its key advertising segment as use of AI began to eat away at search and ad revenue. The reaction swift and pointed. Google's Adsense and Adwords products form the basis for the company's revenue and AI - promoted by Google itself - threatens to kill the golden-egg-laying goose.

Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $92.28 billion, up 19% year over year, beating Wall Street’s $90.62 billion consensus. Adjusted earnings reached $4.89 per share, excluding gains from OpenAI investments, compared with expectations of $4.71, according to Microsoft’s earnings release. Revenue from Azure, the company's AI tool, grew 48% year-over-year, surpassing estimates. Shares of Microsoft are up by 1-2% in pre-market trading.

As the opening bell for Thursday's session approached, the BEA released its first estimate of third quarter GDP, posting an increase of 3.4%, topping consensus estimates for 3.2%. Second quarter GDP was revised higher, from 1.5% to 2.2%. The numbers confirm the general economy is strong and gaining momentum, led by consumer spending and business investment and inventories.

While the GDP numbers are generally positive, the market saw it in a different way. a fast-paced economy is being interpreted as giving the Fed further rationale to hike rates at the December 7-8 FOMC meeting, just six weeks ahead. Google's results also shook the tech sector, sending NASDAQ futures down close to 400 points. With less than an hour to the opening bell, Dow futures are off 140 points and S&P futures are down 32.

Other companies reporting Wednesday after the close included:
Carvana (CVNA) - despite an EPS miss, a beat on revenue has shares higher by 9%
FedEx (FDX) - EPS miss, revenue beat, stock down 1%
T-Mobile (TMUS) - top and bottom beats, stock up 3%
Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG) - EPS miss, revenue beat, shares higher by 8%

Thursday, before the open:
Caterpillar (CAT) - Dow component beat top and bottom, but tariff costs and rising inventories are sending shares down 12%
Carrier (CARR) - EPS, revenue beats, poor outlook, shares down 7%
Eli Lilly (LLY) - solid EPS, revenue beats, shares 4% higher
L3 Harris (LHX) - EPS, revenue beats, stock flat
Vulcan Materials (VMC) - EPS baat, revenue miss, stock down 2%

After the close Thursday, Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Reddit (RDDT), Twillo (TWLO), Rivian (RIVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sandisk (SNDK), and Roblox (RBLX) will report third quarter results.

Rounding out the pre-market headlines, the PCE Index rose 0.5% for the month, pulling the price index up 3.6% year-over-year, adding more fuel to the growing inflation fire.

All indications are that Thursday is going to be a very bumpy, volatile session, with sentiment turning downright negative on AI spending, inflation, and the dual wars in Ukraine and Iran. This is not the narrative the Republican party envisaged.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 28, 2026:
Dow: 52,475.10, +97.53 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,549.85, +72.04 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 7,743.98, +21.38 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,261.28, +50.60 (+0.21%)

Stocks and Commodities on Hold in Advance of FOMC Rate Decision; Chip Stocks Boosted by SK Hynix; Fed's Bind Deepens on Strong Durables

With the FOMC interest rate policy decision due at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday, more companies reported third quarter earnings results after the close on Tuesday, including:

SK Hynix (SKHY) - Record earnings, revenue beat send Korean chip-maker up 7-8% pre-market
Visa (V) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 1-2%
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2-3%
Robinhood (HOOD) - Top and bottom miss, stock down 7%
Seagate (STX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2.5%
Waste Management (WM) - EPS miss, revenue beat, stock lower by 4%

Prior to Wednesday's opening bell:
Boston Scientific (BSX) - EPS in-line, revenue beat, stock falls 13% on negative forecast
UBS (UBS) - EPS miss sends shares down 1%
ADP (ADP) - EPS beat, revenue in-line, shares down 3%
GE Vernova (GEV) - solid EPS beat, revenue beat, shares flat
International Paper (IP) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares down 4%
Phillips 66 (PSX) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat pre-open

Overnight and early morning results, outside of SK Hynix, were nothing special and investors are taking a cautious stance. As for the chip sector, the results by SKHY served to reinforce the outlook for AI buildout and will likely send the sector higher after the opening bell. The concern among investors is that the sector is already over-priced and more evidence of profitability is needed downstream, which may produce a stall out in Mag7 and other AI--related issues.

Durable goods orders for September, announced Tuesday, rose 1.8% during the month, exceeding economists' expectations for a 1.4% increase. The September advance followed a revised 0.1% rise in August. The previous month's figure had initially been reported as a 0.1% decline. Transportation led the advance, but overall, the continued rise in durable goods orders - especially at the consumer level - is a strong indicator of inflationary pressures. In hyper-inflation environments, such as Germany in the 1920s and Argentina in the 1990s, consumers bought durables such as refrigerators and cars even if they didn't need them, in hopes of purchasing at prices lower than in the future. In some instances, holding durables was far better than hoarding cash, as the currency was rapidly losing purchasing power, making large kitchen appliances, furniture, and autos almost a shadow currency that was appreciating against official government-issuance.

This is a trend that economists at the Fed will certainly be tracking. Continued upside price pressure only exacerbates inflationary tendencies and future outlooks. Even more troubling is that these purchases - as just about everything in the U.S. is today - are financed at high interest rates. Higher financing costs to consumers and government, which has to roll over debt constantly, puts a squeeze on the general economy. With more money tied up in financing, there's less room for overall growth, a paradox that has the Fed somewhat trapped. Since interest rate hikes serve to slow the economy, they are most effective on the supply side. Demand for durable goods and other essential purchases is less elastic, leaving the Fed in a bind. Raising rates may slow upside pricing, but, if demand for goods and services remains constant or increases, the net result is negligible.

It may be worth noting if Chairman Warsh mentions pricing pressure as a key element at today's press conference. With expectations for rates to stay on hold until the December meeting, pricing power in the hands of producers may be a considerable concern for which the Fed may not have ample tools to contain. The fear is that the Fed goes deeper into rate hiking policy in December, possibly pushing the federal funds rate up by 0.50% (50 basis points) rather than the traditional 0.25%.

With equity markets due to open in roughly half an hour, stock futures are mixed and moderating, with Dow futures off 100 points, NASDAQ futures off the highs of the morning but still ahead 95 points, and S&P futures up just nine points. Crude oil, gold, and silver remain in holding patterns, a likely posture until the midterms at least. WTI crude oil futures are posting a price above $101/barrel, with gold shading $4,000 and silver holding around $54 per ounce. There doesn't appear to be any catalyst to change pricing structure in these commodities and a rate hold by the FOMC will not change that outlook.

Interest rates have flattened out as well, with yield on the 10-year note knocked down to around an even 5.00% and the 30-year yield at 5.30%, both considerably lower than they were just two and three weeks ago.

Unless Chairman Warsh trips over his prepared remarks at today's 2:30 pm ET press conference, there's little to indicate anything substantial developing in the aftermath. The key event is clearly now the midterms. With Election Day and the actual results unavailable until late Tuesday night (November 3), any big, directional moves in stocks, rates, and commodities won't likely occur until Wednesday, November 4.

The current condition of market sentiment is an uncertain one and there is the potential for some swing to the downside regardless of today's FOMC decision. Warsh's press conference will be more of a focus, but the fledgling Chairman has shown considerable restraint in terms of "spilling the beans." Wall Street sharpies may take off with their own interpretation of what's said by Warsh, though their analysis is likely to be misleading. Still, the pundits and talking heads in the financial and mainstream media may not be able to constrain themselves from putting words in the Chairman's mouth.

If anything, stocks may exhibit downside pressure. That's already the case in terms of reactions to earnings. Stocks have gone nowhere in the 2+ weeks since earnings began to hit the tape (October 12), with the Dow up roughly one percent, the S&P down one percent and the NASDAQ lower by just under three percent.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 27, 2026:
Dow: 52,377.57, +15.99 (+0.03%)
NASDAQ: 26,477.81, +308.43 (+1.18%)
S&P 500: 7,722.60, +45.83 (+0.60%)
NYSE Composite: 24,210.68, +23.82 (+0.10%)

Lula's Victory, Bolsonaro's Defeat in Brazil Signals Havoc in Markets and Beyond; Stocks Trending Higher; Gold, Silver Remain Under Pressure

"This is a sign that our democracy has failed..."

Those were the words of Flávio Bolsonaro after police had seized his passport and barred him from leaving the country on the orders of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest, lost the election Monday to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was elected to a fourth term.

Aside from the absurdity of barring a presidential candidate from leaving the country, the election was marred by unsual events, including a last-minute order to extend voting hours in a number of key districts. The election was held Sunday, and on Monday, the Brazilian stock exchange, the Ibovesta, crashed 20%, triggering a circuit breaker that halted trading. The Brazilian currency, the real, also lost more than 10% against the U.S. dollar.

It's become evident that whoever is lurking in the shadows or behind the curtains has eschewed any pretense that elections are fair and the results represent the will of the people. Bolsonaro's defeat, after winning the primary round two weeks ago, makes it plain to see that elections anywhere in the world cannot be trusted and have likely become more of a stage show than an actual tally of voting preferences. With the U.S. midterms now a week away and with early voting already having been underway for days or weeks in some states, the probability of getting honest results in House and Senate racs across the country is rapidly approaching zero.

No matter which "side" wins and takes a majority in either or both chambers, the message is clear: voting no longer matters in so-called democracies. The winners take office and do as they please, most often doing the will of special interests and large money donors rather than representing the wishes of their voting constituents.

Western society has reached the precipice of correctness versus corruption and Brazil's results may just have pushed the limits of partisan politics over the proverbial edge. Nothing, from equity markets to laws on the books, can be trusted to carry on in an orderly, lawful fashion. The power behind the scenes, the "deep state" if you please, is in complete control. Short of abandoning one's rights or citizenship, there's little any individual can do to restrain the energies pulling Western societies into a swirling abyss.

As far as financial matters are concerned, it's becoming more and more difficult to report on market events without a tinge of skepticism and irony. Corporate books get cooked on a regular basis. Powerful monetary forces regularly influence entire markets and the government's own operations, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, often appear to be more akin to gangsterism than to orderly fiscal activity.

What happens in Brazil, France, the UK, and elsewhere does not occur in a vacuum. The effects of elections, protests, and riots are far-reaching. America is not isolated from events in other countries and is likely being led down the same path by the same powers directing the narrative elsewhere. It's truly a sad state of affairs, and it's global in nature. It's neither left or right, but rather an amalgamation of back-room, hidden powerful entities directing operatives to subvert the general well-being. It is the new reality of total control.

For what it's worth, stocks took the usual path of least resistance, higher on Monday, ignorant to any disruptions from outside events, giddy over Anthropic's official filing for its IPO, with its S-1 filing with the SEC.

Verizon (VZ) posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and raised its guidance prior to the open on Monday, giving the telecom sector some positive news, but sending the cellular carrier down nearly three percent on the day.

After the close Monday, these companies posted third quarter results:
Nucor (NUE) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat pre-market
Whirlpool (WHR) - Huge EPS, revenue misses, shares off 6-7%
The Hartford (HIG) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock flat
Rambus (RMBS) - Top and bottom beats, shares higher by 2%
Cadence (CDNS) - EPS, revenue beats, stock up 1%

Tuesday, before the open:
Coca-Cola (KO) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 2%
Corning (GLW) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat
PayPal (PYPL) - earnings beat, revenue miss, stock down 1.5%
UPS (UPS) - EPS, revenue beats, stock lower by 2%
SoFi (SOFI) - top and bottom beat, stock soaring more than 10% pre-market
Freeport McMoRan (FCX) - EPS, revenue beats, stock up 1%

Gold and silver remain under pressure, with gold flirting with $4,000 per ounce and silver at bargain basement prices below $54.

Stock futures are trending higher prior to the opening bell. Making maket moves before the midterms remains a risky enterprise, though the market appears oblivious to any danger.

At the Close, Monday, October 26, 2026:
Dow: 52,361.58, +146.42 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 26,169.38, +214.04 (+0.82%)
S&P 500: 7,676.77, +53.09 (+0.70%)
NYSE Composite: 24,186.86, +69.59 (+0.29%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Market Nerves Frayed as Midterms Approach; Oil Spikes Higher; Gold, Silver Wrecked, Prompting Central Bank Buying Pressure

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.”

― Thomas Jefferson

Jefferson saw the problems of a democratically-elected government well before they became apparent in American society. The question in the present time is whether or not Americans actually elect a government that is deserving of its posture atop the political system. The entrenched two-party system virtually guarantees that Americans are not well-represented, the nature of politics ensuring that special interests and large money donors have better access and representation than individual constituents.

Thus, with the midterm elections a mere 10 days forward, the prospects of newly-minted congressmen and women actually serving the will of the great unwashed public remains largely in doubt. Decades of apathy, ignoring a corrupt system, has brought about a congress that does little to provide for the general welfare and presidents who go their own ways and rule by edicts of executive orders, which are neither laws nor enforceable, yet the public plays along as best it can, all the time failing to notice how far their republic has strayed from its original intentions.

In a matter of days, the congressional rotation will be finalized, new members seated in early January. After the votes are counted and before new representatives and senators are seated, the government will operate as a lame duck legislature. Nothing will change. No new laws will be enacted. America will have shortchanged itself again with two months of wrangling on Capitol Hill over leadership, chairmanships, and agendas. There will be two months of turmoil before full-blown chaos come January.

Markets, especially the equity ones, will continue to spin and churn without direction. Two events will determine the future for stocks and the general economy: the FOMC rate policy decision on Wednesday, October 28 and the election results on the evening of November 3rd.

Presently, the FOMC decision appears to favor a draw, with the fderal funds target rate stuck at 3.75-4.00% and the CME Fedwatch Tool showing a 90% majority predicting no change. The elections across the country - if polls are to be believed - favors the House flipping to Democrat party control and the Senate in a virtual deadlock once all the votes are counted and verified.

The issue for investors is whether these events will produce markets that are more of the same, or whether they will spin to the upside or lower. This kind of uncertainty is what has kept stocks from making decisive moves in either direction over the past few months.

Time is running short on the drama in Washington. Many will just be glad that it’s over... for another couple of years.

Stocks

The main indices split for the week, with concerns over AI buildout and Capex costs driving the S&P and NASDAQ lower, while fear and safety concerns drove investors to dividend-producing stocks on the Dow. Next week could see the reverse, but it bears notice that each of the major indices - the Dow Industrials, S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE Composite, and Dow Transports - closed out the week below their respective 50-day moving averages, such a position either a portent of what's to follow in weeks and months ahead or a general statement of investor indecision. In either case, it's a negative on market sentiment, which seems to be continuing momentum toward a reality shock. Whether such an event actually is realized has much to do with current events rather than profits and earnings.

Speaking of earnings, the trend has been mostly distressing. Many companies are reporting beats against EPS estimates while falling short on revenues, a trend that indicates a spending downturn, the main culprit being inflation, i.e., high prices on producer and consumer prices, borne out by the September CPI and PPI readings and the structure in oil futures and gas at the pump.

The week ahead is one of the two biggest in terms of volume of companies reporting third quarter results. Here's a partial list of heavy hitters making the rounds in the week ahead, including some Mag7 stocks and Dow components:

Monday (before open): Cemex (CX), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Nucor (NUE), Whirlpool (WHR), The Hartford (HIG), Rambus (RMBS), Cadence (CDNS)

Tuesday (before open): Coca-Cola (KO), Corning (GLW), PayPal (PYPL), UPS (UPS), SoFi (SOFI), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Canon (CAJPY); (after close) SK Hynix (SKHY), Visa (V), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Robinhood (HOOD), Seagate (STX), Waste Management (WM)

Wednesday (before open): Boston Scientific (BSX), UBS (UBS), ADP (ADP), GE Vernova (GEV), International Paper (IP), Phillips Petroeum (PSX); (after close): Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Carvana (CVNA), FedEx (FDX), T-Mobile (TMUS), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG)

Thursday, (before open): Caterpillar (CAT), Carrier (CARR), Eli Lilly (LLY), L3 Harris (LHX), Vulcan Materials (VMC); (after close): Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Reddit (RDDT), Twillo (TWLO), Rivian (RIVN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sandisk (SNDK), Roblox (RBLX)

Friday, (before open): Regeneron (REGN), AutoNation (AN), AstraZeneca (AZN), General Dynamics (GD), British Petroleum (BP), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)

On the economic front, the market get recent economic information from the Chicago and Dallas Fed on Monday. Tuesday, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released along with New Home Sales and a report from the Richmond Fed. The FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday with the policy announcement at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday, the PCE Index for September is released and the first reading on third quarter GDP.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46
10/23/2026	4.11	4.11	4.16	4.22	4.30	4.30	4.44

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43
10/23/2026	4.69	4.75	4.82	4.89	5.00	5.37	5.33

Yields dropped off during the week, but ended only slightly lower than the previous Friday, with the 10-year note yielding 5.00% and the 30-year dropping ten basis points to 5.33%, levels of comfort for investors piling out of stocks late in the week.

Notes and bonds have bounced around significantly during the past month, driven by war and inflation. The 30-year yield is now 0.30% lower than on October 2nd; the 10-year yield is off 28 basis points.

The FOMC meets this week - Tuesday and Wednesday - and unless Chairman Warsh decides to stun the market (and the president), rates will stay on hold at the current 3.75-4.00% level. As for the politics of the interest rate condition, it seems to be close to a 'Mission Accomplished" moment for the Republicans, keeping rates from screaming higher amid economic turmoil and the fog of war.

2s-10s spreads narrowed to +31. The full spectrum, 30-days to 30-years spread dropped nine basis points to a reasonable +122.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35
10/23: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10/16: +131
10/23: +122

Oil/Gas

Oil prices spiked higher again as Mideast kinesis continued to escalate. Brent closed out the week above $115/barrel and WTI crude futures at $103.27. The Trump administration's attempts at controlling the price of oil and gas at the pump have met with disaster. A majority of Americans are unhappy about Trump's handling of both the Ukraine and Iran conflicts and the high prices of fuel and food.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.27 last week and $4.28 this week, though this brief respite is unlikely to last, given the higher price of crude. Gas at the pump has been - by whatever means - generally lower the past three weeks despite the rising price of crude oil. Fishy, to say the least, and likely politically-motivated, with the lowest prices in Republican strongholds or states they'd like to win (Texas, North Carolina), with price increases in Democrat-controlled states (Michigan, Illinois, Indiana).

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.00 (-0.15)
Washington: $5.28 (-0.09)
Indiana: $3.99 (+0.14)
Oklahoma: $3.84 (-0.04)
Louisiana: $3.73 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.77 (-0.08)
Florida: $4.09 (+0.02)
Illinois: $4.89 (+0.22)
Pennsylvania: $4.43 (-0.04)
New York: $4.34 (-0.04)
Maryland: $3.96 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.80 (+0.33)
Texas: $3.68 (-0.06)
Georgia: $3.61 (-0.07)
North Carolina $3.46 (lowest) (-0.14)

On Sunday, October 25, there are thirty-three (33) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fifteen (15) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($4.79), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington) and one, California, right at $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 17 weeks, with prices generally below $4.00 ($3.46-3.85) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.92 to $4.20. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Northeast states, north of Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,529.22
Last week: $81,297.99
2 weeks ago: $82,717.91
6 months ago: $75,939.33
One year ago: $111,284.20
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto still resembles a fantasy video game played by idiots and children, with bitcoin acting as some kind of magical king with special powers. It's all still speculative junk, up 30% from five years out and down 28% from a year ago.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 74.25 last week: 73.22;

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70
Gold price 10/23: $4,010.00

Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13
Silver price 10/23: $53.96

SPOT: (Kitco)
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10
Gold 10/23: $3,994.90

Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87
Silver 10/23: $53.80

Until the midterms are over at the least and the December 9 FOMC policy rate decision is concluded, gold and silver will likely remain under pressure, a condition that could worsen if the Fed decides to hike rates again in the mistaken belief that yields on fixed income vehicles are preferable against the non-interest-bearing precious metals. The fallacy of the argument comes from inflation, which degrades the purchasing power of currencies. In real terms, gold and silver beat inflation at every turn, no matter the temporary price.

Presently, central banks, especially China, Russia, and other Eastern entities, are more than pleased with the recent price downturn in gold, allowing them to ramp up their reserves at bargain-basement prices. Silver remains the ugly child, though individual stackers are stocking up, with the gold:silver ratio approaching 75.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	60.00	75.00	65.22	64.81
1 oz silver bar:	62.08	72.00	66.88	67.26
1 oz gold coin:	4131.70	4366.33	4235.07	4215.47
1 oz gold bar:	4167.28	4268.36	4208.66	4209.29

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell again during the week, dropping to $66.04, a loss of $1.96 per troy ounce from the October 18 price of $68.00.

WEEKEND WRAP

The latter part of the week witnessed a massive flight to safety, as the tech sector continued to implode and money flowed into treasuries and corporate debt issuance. As the midterms approach and afterwards, there may be just plain flight out of stocks and a huge downturn depending on how the market interprets election results. Even if Republicans - by some uncanny stroke of luck or other means - manage to hold a majority in the House and/or Senate, market reaction could accelerate in a downward direction.

At the Close, Friday, October 23, 2026:
Dow: 52,215.16, -652.82 (-1.23%)
NASDAQ: 25,955.34, -53.52 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 7,623.68, -39.75 (-0.52%)
NYSE Composite: 24,117.27, -158.26 (-0.65%)

For the Week:
Dow: +212.75 (+0.41%)
NASDAQ: -184.69 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: -35.76 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: +28.68 (+0.12%)
Dow Transports: +162.08 (+0.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Tech, AI Infrastructure Spending Under Assault as NASDAQ Suffers Another Major Decline; Earnings Reports Unimpressive; Fiat Currencies Dying

At last, it's Friday and the stock market can rest for a couple of days.

Stocks, especially anything even remotely related to AI or the infrastructure buildout and its enormous Capex budgets, were bludgeoned on Thursday, with the NASDAQ and S&P taking the full brunt of a semi-panic mood. Investors rushed to dividend-producing stocks on the Dow and into treasuries, sending the 10-year yield down to 4.95%, a massive drop of 20 basis points from Wednesday's close of 5.15% and the first time the 10-year has been below five percent, suspiciously, in exactly one month.

As usual, the information, analysis, and/or advice offered by financial institutions, politicians, statisticians, chartists, scientists and the mainstream media backing all of their conclusions is complete nonsense, and missed the bigger picture completely. The United States the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Eurozone continue to spiral toward a currency crisis, manifested by increasingly high levels of inflation, i.e., loss of purchasing power in the fiat currency regime.

That is the overwhelming problem that nobody in the mainstream dares mention, precisely because it is the truth and the conclusions are frightening. Western economies are in decline without a doubt and the main cause has been, still is, and will continue to be fractional reserve banking and excessive monetary profligacy, papering over the obvious by issuing more and more currency, all of it backed by debt.

The world will keep on spinning, but, standards of living in developed Western economies will continue to be plagued by central banking and debt-backed currency until there is a radical reset back to something resembling a gold standard or, in simpler terms, honest money. Dollars, yen, pounds, euros and the like are not money. They are money substitutes, credit, and derivatives. Western nations use the currency to measure wealth, while compared to gold, they are all in severe decline. Keeping a lid on gold and silver works only as far as inflation can be contained or moderated. Inflation is currently out of control and there's little any central bank or government can do to halt its relentless destruction of fiat paper currencies. Most of the developed world is on the brink of hyperinflation, once again, a subject that is strictly taboo in the financial and mainstream media.

After Thursday's closing bell and prior to Friday's open, a few companies reported earnings for the third quarter, including:
Bloom Energy (BE) - top and bottom beats, shares down 4% pre-market
Western Digital (WDC) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 2.5%
Verisign (VRSN) - EPS miss, revenue in-line, stock is flat
Newmont Mining (NEM) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 1-2%
Booze Allen (BAH) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares up 1-2%
American Express (AXP) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock down 1-2%

Of those companies, perhaps only American Express and Bloom Energy are significant, though the suspicion is that all stocks are being dragged down by the increasingly-negative sentiment spreading through Wall Street. One consistent theme this earnings season has been the recurrence of EPS beats with revenue misses, indicating that the economy is contracting rather than expanding, the GDP figures that will emerge next week (Thursday) clouded by inflation. Government figures being mostly professional guessing, it can safely be assured that GDP for the third quarter will come in somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5% higher. The modeling and massaging of GDP estimates are inadequate at best, outright lies at worst. The U.S. economy hasn't “officially” been in a recession for the past five years (pandemic-induced, 2020) and that was the shortest on record. The last actual recession in the U.S. was in 2008-2009, 17 years ago. It would not be a stretch to conclude that the U.S. is overdue for one. It's currently being delayed until after the midterms.

There is a strong likelihood that the U.S. will enter recession either in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. All the elements are in place, including overvalued stocks, two wars, high inflation, and uneasiness lurking behind every headline.

With U.S. equity markets due to open in minutes, stock futures are again collapsing, with the Dow leading lower by 400 points, the NASDAQ down 45, and the S&P off 25.

Have a nice weekend. Enjoy some football and the World Series and buy some gold or silver.

At the Close, Thursday, October 22, 2026:
Dow: 52,867.98, +11.89 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,008.86, -694.00 (-2.60%)
S&P 500: 7,663.43, -93.74 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 24,275.53, +22.41 (+0.09%)

Futures Slide After Tesla, IBM, Meta Report Earnings; Middle East Remains Aflame as Houthis, Iran Escalate; Midterms Have Republicans Worried

As was widely expected, quarterly returns from SpaceX drove stocks higher on Wednesday, but each day during any earnings season tells a different story with diverse stocks reporting for the given quarter.

After Wednesday's close, three big names hit the wires with thrid quarter results. IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META) all moved in after-hours trading.

IBM posted third quarter revenue of $17.1 billion on Wednesday, up 5% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $2.95 a share, both ahead of estimates. The company also projected free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion in the fourth quarter and projected revenue growth of 4-5% for the upcoming quarter. Despite the rosy outlook, investors preferred to take profits. Shares of "Big Blue" dropped by more than five percent in after-hours trading and extended losses into Thursday morning.

Tesla (TSLA) reported quarterly revenue of $28 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of $28.3 billion. Adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share narrowly topped estimates of $0.45 per share. The electric car company lowered its full year 2026 capital expenditures to $20 billion, down from $25 billion. Shares sold off afte the report. As of Thursday morning's pre-market ticker, Tesla is down more than three percent on concerns the company will be unable to meet projections set by Chairman Elon Musk.

Exclusive of Thursday's expected downturn, Tesla is off 12% year-to-date, the worst performance of any Mag7 stock.

Finally, Meta Platforms (META) completed the trifecta of sour notes, beating EPS and revenue estimates, but top-heavy Capex spending on AI quieted investor enthusiasm for the social network leader. Shares were seen slipping by 2-3% in early morning trading.

Elsewhere, reporting overnight:
Lam Research (LRCX) - beat top and bottom, but warned supply chain issues will delay revenue growth in upcoming quarter, sending the stock down more than seven percent
Texas Instruments (TXN) - EPS and revenue beats, stock flat to one percent lower
Crown Castle (CCI) - EPS and revenue miss, stock down less than 1%, but figures to be lower after Thursday's open

Thursday, before the opening bell:
Comcast (CMCSA) - EPS, revenue beat, shares up 2-3%, but stock is trading at depressed levels, down 21% y-t-d
Tractor Supply (TSCO) - EPS, revenue beat, reaffirms guidance, shares down 5% pre-market
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - EPS, revenue beat, stock up 3-4% on positive guidance, record backlog
Nokia (NOK) - Solid beats on revenue, EPS, but stock slips 5-6% on lowered AI CAPEX spending
Blackstone Group (BX) - EPS beat, revenue shortfall, stock down 3-4% pre-market
American Airlines (AAL) - EPS, revenue beats, but guidance was negative on higher fuel costs, shares down 4%
Valero (VLO) - energy company beats top and bottom, shares up 1-2%

The general takeaway from pre-market sentiment is that the AI buildout trade is weighing heavily on stocks related to semis and tech, especially Mag7, affecting overall mood of the market. Stock futures have been deep in the red all morning Thursday. An hour prior to the open, Dow futures are off 310, NASDAQ futures have shed 390 points, and S&P 500 futures are down 73 points, all pointing to a tense opening to the downside.

Adding to the uneasy mood, Asian stock indices imploded overnight. South Korea's Kospi dropped more than three percent; Japan's NIKKEI fell 2.65%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ripped lower by three percent.

Continued rioting by migrants in France has kept European stocks under pressure, and French 10-year bonds hit five percent (5%) for the first time since 2002.

In the continuing catastrophe in the Middle East, Iran boldly claims to have hit seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure continue at a frenetic pace. With Washington taking an eased-back approach - President Trump avowing not to strike Iran until after the midterms - conditions in the region are deteriorating rapidly.

Brent crude oil futures topped $112 overnight and WTI futures have dropped below $100 due to arbitrage and speculative trading, having little to do with actual pricing of oil coming out of the Gulf region or elsewhere. Gas prices in the U.S. are also lower, pressure being applied by the White House in advance of the midterm elections. Missing the big picture completely, precious metals continue to sell off. Gold traded as low as $4,054 and silver slipped below $56/ounce.

Prospects leading into Thursday's trade and the seven remaining market days before the midterm appear to be slipping from the Republican's narrative control. Beyond overvaluation, cracks in the credit markets are re-appearing due to overcrowding by the need for AI spending. 10-year yields are at 5.15% and the 30-year is yielding 5.35%, clearly, the easing off in credit markets is only temporary. Real, sustained pressure on fixed income has not yet been fleshed out. Next week's FOMC meeting may take the temperature down a bit further, only if the Fed decides to keep rates on hold, though the December meeting may turn out to be a make-up call, with a possible 50 basis point hike getting attention.

There's no fixing what's being broken by runaway politicians, crazed neocons, overspending on AI, and the hidden commercial real estate crash without a serious step back in stocks. Thursday's action may offer a glimpse of what's ahead.

Simply put, there are just too many bad things happening for stocks to keep ratcheting higher.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 21, 2026:
Dow: 52,856.09, +360.21 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 26,702.86, +278.04 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 7,757.17, +44.60 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,253.12, +62.51 (+0.26%)

SpaceX Sends Stock Futures Higher; "Peace Talks" Leading the Pre-Election Narrative; Stocks Remain Near Highs

A flurry of earnings reports following Tuesday's closing bell and in front of Wednesday's open are likely to give tech and AI stocks a huge boost when the bell rings.

The initial surge will be largely the result of Elon Musk's Spacex (SPCX), which reported Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, net income of $4.4 billion, and mentioned a potential merger with another of Musk's companies, Tesla (TSLA). The stock surged in the after hours Tuesday and is running about eight percent higher in the pre-market.

After the close Tuesday, the following companies reported:
Netflix (NFLX) - topped EPS estimates, revenue miss, soft guidance sends the stock down 7% pre-market
United Airlines (UAL) - earnings and revenue miss, stock flat
Chubb (CB) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock down 1%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - top and bottom beats, shares down more than 8% pre-market after the company agreed to pay $450 million to settle the da Vinci antitrust class action.
CapitalOne (COF) - EPS, revenue beats, shares up 3-4%

Wednesday before the open:
AT&T (T) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 4%
CME Group (CME) - EPS, revenue beats, shares flat
Abbot Labs (ABT) - top and bottom beats, stock down 4%
Philip Morris (PM) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 2-3%

After the market closes Wednesday, IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI) will provide more depth.

Futures have reacted well to the earnings reports issued, with Dow futures up 171 points, NASDAQ futures up 180, and S&P futures up 22 points.

Traders undoubtably were comfortable with the SpaceX earnings, less so with others mostly outside the tech space, led by softer or negative guidance from a handful of companies. Particularly poignant was Netflix's guidance as the company loses market share to other streaming services, and AT&T, which is under pressure from rival telecommunications companies and is likely to lose market share when Starlink begins offering cell phone service.

There's also a healthy skepticism over the recent "peace" initiatives in both the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts. The market has heard the same story before, and now suspects that President Trump is using the softer tone to lure voters toward Republican candidates in various primaries. His flip-flopping offers two scenarios: 1) after the midterms, the conflicts escalate, or 2) he seriously desires peace and will wind down the wars after the voting ends.

Since the president has not been exactly dutiful in carrying out campaign promises, there's sufficient evidence to suggest that the conflicts will continue well after the midterms, no matter which direction congress turns. Most registered voters in various polls have a distaste for war, with about a 60-40 split favoring ending them. Americans are usually opposed to military conflicts, even though the government has regularly taken part in many regional escapades since World War II.

Early voting is underway in most states that offer it with Election Day just 12 days down the road.

At this juncture, it would be no surprise if nothing on the war fronts changed significantly up to the midterms, despite the narrative continuing to lean toward peace talks or other softer tones. Voters may have figured out that the Republicans are engaged in electioneering at its worst.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 20, 2026:
Dow: 52,495.88, +529.85 (+1.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,424.82, -6.07 (-0.02%)
S&P 500: 7,712.57, +21.84 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 24,190.62, +223.55 (+0.93%)

Stocks Slip After Earnings Fail to Inspire Market Confidence; Housing Market in Decline with Starts Down 5.2% in September

Anticipating strong earnings from a number of bellwether stocks later in the week, Monday's gains on the NASDAQ will ultimately turn out ot be superfluous. Like a poor running line on a race horse in the past performances, one might just as well draw a line through the day's results because they were based on nothing more than seeing how high a dead cat could bounce.

The earnings reports that will dominate the week began sorting themselves out after the close late Monday when some smaller, less-tech-related companies reported third quarter results:

Steel Dynamics (STLD) - missed top and bottom, shares off more than 5% in pre-market action
Crown Holdings (CCK) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 4% on poor forward guidance
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - EPS, revenue beats, stock is flat pre-open

Tuesday, before the open, these companies reported:
3M (MMM) - small EPS beat, revenue miss for Dow component, sends shares up 2% in early trading
Hasbro (HAS) - shares up 2% pre-market for toy-maker after strong EPS, revenue beats, positive forecast for holidays
Ally Financial (ALLY) - EPS beat, shares flat
Northrop Grumman (NOC) - EPS beat, revenue miss for MIC favorite; shares flat
General Motors (GM) - top and bottom beats, forecast dull, company announces $20 billion buyback, investors balk, shares down 6%
GE Aerospace (GE) - bullish forecast after EPS, earnings beats, shares down 4%
Halliburton (HAL) - EPS, revnue beats, company highlights dividend, stock up 3-4%

After Tuesday's close, there may be fireworks with Spacex (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Chubb (CB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and CapitalOne (COF) reporting. Stay frosty and stay tuned.

Putting Monday and Tuesday's earnings spotlight into perspective, these results were nothing special given already-high valuations in most sectors. While these companies are more mainstream economy rather than tech-related, their results suggest the economy just trundling along, growing GDP at a rate of one to two percent, but nothing to infer an overheated condition, which should be bullish against the growling angst of rate hikes at next week's FOMC meeting. Consensus says the Fed will stand pat on rates, though a 0.50% hike in December is becoming more of a worry.

Also throwing some shade on market sentiment, this morning's Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Pending Home Sales did little to instill confidence.

Housing Starts were down 5.2% in September, with August revised lower to -5.9% month-on-month. Building Permits for September were also lower, down 0.2% on a monthly basis. Another shoe to drop comes at 10:00 am, when the National Association of Realtors posts Pending Home Sales for September. The August figures showed a gain of 0.3% month over month and a flop of 4.7% year-over-year. Higher mortgage rates and high prices have contributed to the slack in the market. Single-family starts are the lowest in a year nationally.

Oil continues to be a concern as reports say two more tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran Monday night, sending WTI futures up as high as $110/barrel, catching up to Brent, which was quoted above $112. Prices on futures markets for both are off those highs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street.

France is burning, the country being wrecked by riots and mob violence, mostly coming in the form of organized youthful protestors of Arabic origin. France's CAC is down nearly five percent year-to-date with no apparent end to the violence, mostly related to upcoming elections in 2027 in which France will elect a new president and vote for delegates to their parliament. The rioting is seen by analysts to be a positive for right-leaning Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, which advocates against open immigration. Current President Emmanuel Macron is not able to run for re-election.

All of this leads to stock futures flat to slightly lower heading toward the bell. While there doesn't appear to be much to suggest stocks moving higher, there is ample supply of potholes into which investors can step if not careful.

Gold and silver continue to be depressed and suppressed. Nothing new there.

At the Close, Monday, October 19, 2026:
Dow: 51,966.03, -36.38 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,430.89, +290.85 (+1.11%)
S&P 500: 7,690.73, +31.29 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 23,967.07, -121.56 (-0.50%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Remain Somewhat Cool Leading Into Midterms, Though Oil Prices Have Spiked; Silver Trounced in Futures Markets; Interest Rates Tamed

Outside of the usual political grandstanding, there's little to move markets other than earnings reports, which will take center stage this week as some of the biggest publicly-traded companies report for the third quarter.

Positioning prior to the midterms remains a fool's game. There's clearly a newfound disdain for tech and AI, owing mostly to crumbling cost structures to build data centers and fund the expansion of the latest, greatest technology. Since closing at its most recent all-time high on October 6, the NASDAQ has fallen some 5.3%.

According to early voting exit polls and data, Democrats are leading Republicans as they usually do with actual Election Day now just 16 days off. By Monday, another handful of states that set the timetable for early voting at 15 days prior to the election will join the fray, with the last of the early-voting states joining in no later than the following Monday.

Whether or not one buys into the "two-party system," the results should cause more factionalism, no matter which party ends up in control of the House and Senate. The one certainty is that the White House will remain in control of the Republican party, with President Trump as its titular leader. His effectiveness in the final two years of his term in office, will be affected negatively if Democrats win just the House, and possibly catastrophically if they take the Senate as well, because then, a case for impeachment might actually result in his removal from office, or, as was the case with Richard M. Nixon, he could be forced into resignation by his own party, saving the country from the horrors of an impeachment trial, though neither party seems to be disposed to forego such delectable drama.

So, stocks will move the market this week, rather than politics, which is as it should be.

Stocks

Only the Dow Industrials and NYSE Composite managed gains this week as fears of a financial AI implosion hounded the tech sector and sent the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The movement was most pronounced on the NAZ, though it is nowhere near panic stages. That will likely come after choose one: a) the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; b) the midterms, or; c) the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.

One way or another, the delicate dancing narrative that the Republican party has contrived won't survive a political shakeup nor will it prosper under higher interest rates at the federal funds level. The elephant in the room being the extreme deficits now becoming de rigeur for incumbent parties on both sides of the aisle (as both the congress and the presidency are responsible parties), discussion of the bankrupting of the nation is not a debatable issue in any campaign, anywhere.

Neither side wishes to address the problem with interest on the debt amounting to an annual bill of more than $1.25 trillion, though it is likely the most important issue facing the country today, has been for at least the past five years, and will continue to be so until it is addressed or the government defaults or inflates the currency out of existence, the latter being the most likely outcome.

In the meantime, there will be less than three weeks left of shouting, finger-pointing, posturing, and name-calling on the campaign trail. Sometimes, it's better to get caught up trying to game stocks than listening to an endless stream of intelligence-insulting sloganeering.

The week ahead is one of the two biggest in terms of volume of companies reporting third quarter results:

Monday (before open): Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Fifth Third Bank (FITB); (after close) Steel Dynamics (STLD), Crown Holdings (CCK), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

Tuesday (before open): 3M (MMM), Hasbro (HAS), Ally Financial (ALLY, Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Motors (GM), Ge Aerospace (GE), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Spacex (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Chubb (CB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), CapitalOne (COF)

Wednesday (before open): Northern Trust (NTRS), AT&T (T), CME Group (CME), Abbot Labs (ABT), Danaher (DHR), Philip Morris (PM); (after close): IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI)

Thursday, (before open): Comcast (CMCSA), Tractor Supply (TSCO, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Nokia (NOK), Dow (DOW), Blackstone Group (BX), American Airlines (AAL), Valero (VLD); (after close): IngCentral (RING), Bloom Energy (BE), Western Digital (WDC), Verisign (VRSN), Sallie Mae (SLM), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Friday, (before open): Booze Allen (BAH), American Express (AXP), Gentex (GNTX)

On the economic front, the market will learn about Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Pending Home Sales on Tuesday, and S&P Global Flash PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43

Yields cooled significantly in the week as buyer demand was satiated and possibly overbought, though the deep insider faction of government operatives cannot be fully dismissed as the cause of the abrupt relaxation. It certainly seems to be more political theater than anything else.

10-year notes yielded some 15 basis points lower than the previous Friday, and 30year bond yields dropped by 17 bips. Price action on shorter-term two-year notes was less pronounced, dropping just six basis points. Spread on 2s-10s fell to +35, and full spectrum eased to +131. The temporary easing is just that: temporary. Lower rates are likely to persist until the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10?16: +131

Oil/Gas

Oil prices spiked higher, with Brent approaching $110/barrel and WTI crude futures surpassing $100 as conditions in the Middle East continue to be difficult to assess and oil flows - despite some rosy predictions and proclamations - are still down considerably.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.34 last week and $4.27 this week, though this brief respite is unlikely to last, given the higher price of crude. The midterms disaster for Republicans is unfolding at gas stations and grocery stores across the country.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.15 (-0.24)
Washington: $5.37 (-0.07)
Indiana: $3.86 (-0.06)
Oklahoma: $3.88 (-0.09)
Louisiana: $3.82 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.85 (-0.04)
Florida: $4.07 (-0.04)
Illinois: $4.67 (-0.04)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (+0.02)
New York: $4.37 (-0.06)
Maryland: $4.10 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.47 (-0.20)
Texas: $3.74 (-0.03)
Georgia: $3.68 (-0.09)
North Carolina $3.59 (lowest)

On Sunday, October 18, there are thirty-four (34) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fourteen (14) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.61) and Alaska ($4.90), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 16 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 again this week ($3.59-3.88) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.95 to $4.21. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $81,297.99
Last week: $82,717.91
2 weeks ago: $85,242.28
6 months ago: $72,902.99
One year ago: $107,365.60
Five years ago: $61,334.40

Bitcoin continued to slide from recent highs, the usual predictions of breakout and higher prices for the imaginary tokens were dealt with a case of interest rate reality, sending the speculators scrambling for explanations.

It's very simple. In a world full of hard-and-soft-money choices and raging inflation, vapor money isn't for everybody. In fact, most of the pricing activity in bitcoin and other crypto-currencies and tokens of faith are driven by little more than naked speculation. Once the specs are thoroughly routed, bitcoin and its brethren will return to roughly their intrinsic values, approaching zero.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 73.22; last week: 69.09

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70

Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13

SPOT: (kitco)
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10

Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87

Silver became much cheaper against gold, according to the gold:silver ratio, as shorts had their way on the COMEX and in London, sending silver to its lowest price in nearly a year. Gold, being more stable, held up much better, with a drop in price on the spot market of less than $30 per ounce. By comparison, silver was shattered, losing nearly $4/ounce, a 6.3% move, week to week.

The price decline in silver represents nothing more than seasonal bets and concerted efforts to drive the price lower in the derivatives markets. A shortage of silver supply still exists, though it was easier for short sellers to take command over the course of the week - and over the past eight months - because of rising interest rates. The quoted spot prices, derived from COMEX leveraged bets, has less to do with supply and demand and more to do with commitment of traders who see the metal as a trade rather than a commodity in demand.

Being much more volatile than gold's price, which is dominated by central bank buying of the metal as a reserve holding, silver's price decline may contnue over the short term with industrial demand the main price component rather than silver being considered a monetary metal. In most circles, it is not greatly considered for its monetary qualities, a common error in today's derivative suppression regime. Movement in the GSR makes silver the preferable investment at the present time.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	61.99	79.99	66.00	64.83
1 oz silver bar:	65.23	79.93	70.48	70.67
1 oz gold coin:	4301.90	4537.50	4414.94	4404.40
1 oz gold bar:	4331.87	4438.04	4369.27	4356.90

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was wallopped this week, dropping to $68.00, a mammoth loss of $6.20 per troy ounce from the October 11 price of $74.20.

WEEKEND WRAP

With just about two weeks until the votes begin a final and the makeup of the U.S. House and Senate are resolved, stocks will be more in focus than politics, with a huge batch of earnings reports on the week. Stocks have shown weakness over the past week plus, but there's a good chance that the indices will maintain resilience until the elections. After that, markets may become more of a free-for-all, with a multitude of changes on the horizon dependent of the direction of voting. Polls are still leaning the Democrats way, but the Republican narrative machine continues to assert its considerable will on the media.

Anything - and maybe everything - goes in less than 20 days.

At the Close, Friday, October 16, 2026:
Dow: 52,002.41, -175.28 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 26,140.03, -572.99 (-2.14%)
S&P 500: 7,659.44, -84.62 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 24,088.63, +21.98 (+0.09%)

For the Week:
Dow: +347.46
NASDAQ: -1226.14
S&P 500: -152.10
NYSE Composite: +149.53
Dow Transports: -75.69

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Ignore Inflation, Oil, Gas Prices, and Discouraging Earnings Reports from Financials as Midterms Loom

Stocks shook off the inflation news from the past two days of September CPI and PPI readings above expectations. By most standards, those inflation numbers were about the worst news Wall Street could have received. On a scale of 1-10, both figures came in at about 8 or 9. What’s worse, is that most savvy Wall Street investors understand just how understated the inflation metrics really are.

Given that information, however, stocks, after a slow start, rallied for the duration of the session, turning red to green and also ignoring the rising prices of oil and gasoline. Maybe the masters of the universe who ply markets with seemingly unlimited amounts of money know something nobody else does. An alternate argument can be made that these ongoing distortions in market dynamics are all tied to politics, specifically, the midterm elections on November 3rd.

So, the end of the week arrives with the major indices split, the Dow and S&P positive, but the NASDAQ down 653 points. Investors are poring over the last of the week's earnings reports.

After Thursday's close, these companies reported:
Alcoa (AA) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares higher by 4% pre-market
Simmons Bank (SFNC) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares flat
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) - EPS miss, revenue beat, shares off one percent
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) - EPS beat, revenue beat, shares down 3%

On Friday, before the open:
M&T Bank (MTB) - EPS beat, revenue in line, shares off one percent
Truist Financial (TFC) - EPS miss, stock down 1-2%
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) - EPS beat, shares down 2%
Regions Financial (RF) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares up 1-2%
Travelers (TRV) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 4.5%

The recurring theme for mainly bank stocks this quarter has been winning on EPS, but coming up short on revenue. Apparently, banks of all sizes are making more money on higher interest rates, but, with lower revenue. Spreads on interest-sensitive loans are good for business, but they aren't writing new loans, which would make sense, given higher mortgage and small business loan rates.

The larger banks that reported earlier in the week have also shown weakness. Over the past month, led by Bank of America's 10.71% decline, JP Morgan (-3.84%), Goldman Sachs (-4.98%), Wells Fargo (-4.94%) and Citigroup (-7.33%) are all down, indicating stress in the banking system. What's spurring the selling, besides nose-bleed prices, are fears of a breakdown in AI-related and commercial real estate loans, both of which have been nder pressure, along with the nagging low revenue story. If banks aren't making loans, the economy isn't moving and a recession may be close at hand.

The case for the one Dow component reporting Friday, Travelers (TRV), is unusual in that the stock is sitting near all-time highs, and posted strong results outside of what they call "catastrophe losses", which increased 34% in the quarter just ended. That seems to be just a part of the story. Profit-taking on a stock that is up 32% year-to-date completes the picture.

With the opening bell a half hour ahead, futures are mixed, with the Dow and S&P up and the NASDAQ lower, but only by 40 points or so.

Gold and silver continue to recover as bond yields have slipped lower the past few days. Gold is holding small gains this morning around $4,178, and silver is bouncing in a range between $57.25 and $57.75.

The market remains difficult to decipher and trading volume has been down. It appears to be in a wait-and-see condition until the midterms, which runs counter to the usual activity during earnings seasons. Trading may pick up over the next two weeks, as they are the busiest on the calendar for reporting.

At the Close, Thursday, October 15, 2026:
Dow: 52,177.69, +556.21 (+1.08%)
NASDAQ: 26,713.03, +20.16 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 7,744.06, +25.12 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 24,066.65, +201.22 (+0.84%)

NASDAQ Posts Worst Decline in Four Months as AI Credit Implodes; September PPI Advances Beyond Expectations: Crude Oil Jumps; PMs Recovering

Two days into earnings season and all there is to show are losses across the major averages. This is not how the midterm game plan is supposed to work.

Things that matter may be beginning to unravel for the Republicans in their hopes to keep the "A-OK" narrative alive through Election Day, now less than three weeks off and early voting already begun in a handful of states, including Illinois, Michigan, California, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

It's difficult to believe Americans could be dumb enough to vote for the incumbents with inflation running red hot, gas prices through the roof, wars still unresolved in Ukraine and the Middle East and a party that seems only intent on getting re-elected.

“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people” - H.L. Mencken, Baltimore Sun, September 18, 1926

It could happen that the Republican party maintains its slim margins in the House and Senate, but, only because the Democrats have put up candidates that are far inferior in many voting districts and states. It seems like no matter which party wins - and be assured, there are only two choices - the American people will lose because the reality is that there is only one party - the uniparty, as some like to call it - and Republicans and Democrats are nothing more than factions of the same tax, borrow, and spend federal behemoth.

The American people don't have a choice when it comes to voting, at least at the national level. Whichever party or candidate wins an election, campaign promises and moral integrity are lost the moment he or she steps into the Capitol building. The party controls the votes; the leviathan - to use a Hobbesian metaphor - controls the narrative. Nothing changes in Washington D.C. except the occasional role players. Senators and House Reps alike toe the government line. The behemoth swallows them all.

“The worship of the state is the worship of force. There is no more dangerous menace to civilization than a government of incompetent, corrupt, or vile men. The worst evils which mankind ever had to endure were inflicted by bad governments. The state can be and has often been in the course of history the main source of mischief and disaster.” ― Ludwig von Mises, Bureaucracy

The longer this system of overwhelming government control survives, the worse off will be the fates of millions of Americans. It's become routine for congress and whatever entity is occupying the White House to pass legislation the public is adamantly against. Wars are started without weighing the consequences. Infrastructure bills are little more than handouts to loyalists. The government exerts more control, leading to a point at which a large segment of the public becomes apathetic toward voting and government and begins to drift towards a more reckless level of anarchy, one that dismisses government laws and regulations as little more than impediments against their own goals to live in a just, honest society.

Eventually, as is the emerging state of play in Europe, the taxes, the surveillance, the limits on freedom and liberty become too much for the general public to bear and the leviathan government is perplexed that their "perfect" system of control no longer functions as planned. This is the future of America: a country balkanized by regions, sects, and beliefs, an incongruous mass without an underlying, unifying force, the government's promises seen as empty slogans, its power diminished by its own hubris. The process unfolding happens over decades. America is within 20 years of the need for radical change, maybe even closer than that, lest it completely lose its identity and world standing.

So, as Thursday's opening bell approaches, the pundits and blabbers in the finacial media continue to talk the good talk, all the while, the investor class is walking away. Stocks are already wildly overpriced and breadth in the market favors only a few of the more popular issues, and even those are under assault.

Wednesday saw the worst daily performance on the NASDAQ in Four months, fueled by a CPI reading that was worse than expectations and a meltdown of one of the AI darlings, Coreweave (CRWV), which lost 15% on the day and is down nearly 2/3rds since its all-time high in June, 2025. The company's business model is under scrutiny, its funding under assault. Coreweave's credit default swaps (CDS) blew out to over 1000 basis points. Other companies in the AI space such as Oracle and Softbank are seeing outsized moves in the costs to insure gainst default.

Bank stocks reporting third quarter earnings failed to provide a boost to the markets or even maintain recent levels. Now that inflation is seen as a clear and present danger, the other shoe - the AI funding bust - is dropping.

Thursday morning, these stocks reported for the third quarter:
U.S. Bancorp (USB) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock flat pre-market
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shared down 2%
PNC (PNC) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares flat
Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) - Top and bottom beat, shares higher by 2-3%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - Top and bottom beat, shares off by 2-3%
Ericsson (ERIC) - Huge EPS, revenue beat, shares higher by 11%

These results failed to move the market needle, especially after the BLS reported September PPI was came in like a house afire:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. (See table A.) The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

In September, prices for final demand goods rose 2.6 percent, and the index for final demand services advanced 0.8 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.0 percent.

Those numbers are wildly inflationary, since producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices. Most companies aren't about to keep prices down and absorb margin losses. No matter how the PPI is viewed, it's possibly to be enough for the Fed to move rates higher at its October 27-28 FOMC meeting. There's now a 33% chance the Fed will raise rates at the October meeting and a 92% chance of a rate hike at the December 9 meeting, with a 29% chance the hike will be 50 basis points, to 4.25-4.50%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Paradoxically, retail sales zoomed 0.8% higher in September, with gasoline purchases crowding out other consumer staples and discretionary purchases. The number is obviously not inflation-adjusted, signaling stress on consumers, especially in low and middle income groups.

All of this underscores the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, both of which are again spiraling out of control.

With the opening bell 30 minutes away, Dow futures are up 235, NASDAQ futures are down 384, S&P futures are down 24 points. WTI crude oil has broken out of its recent range and is now trading above $95/barrel. Brent crude has been well over $100/barrel for the better part of the past six weeks.

Gold and silver continue to recover after Wednesday's bloodletting.

Doesn't look very rosy, does it?

At the Close, Wednesday, October 14, 2026:
Dow: 51,621.48, -48.62 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 26,692.87, -511.53 (-1.88%)
S&P 500: 7,718.94, -86.51 (-1.11%)
NYSE Composite: 23,865.42, -119.58 (-0.50%)

September CPI Unacceptably High; Bank Stocks Delivering Bad News; Futures Slide as Midterm Plans Unravel

Kicking off third quarter earnings season Tuesday with the usual bold profit announcements from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, expectations for market gains were given an added boost when United Health (UNH) chimed in with a strong quarterly report.

Because all three companies are components of the Dow 30, stock futures on the Dow climbed more than 400 points prior to the opening bell.

That was all well and good, but things seemed to go a bit haywire once the cash market opened. Instead of the Dow being bid higher and higher, the world’s most widely-watched index stalled at the opening high, and spent the rest of the session meandering along, just below the unchanged line. With early gains eviscerated within the first half hour of trading, disappointment ran deep.

JP Morgan ended the day down less than one percent. Goldman Sachs finished with a loss of 1.34%. Only United Health survived with gains for the day, up 1.98 points (0.52%).

Perhaps the plans to have stocks price higher on Tuesday was a bit too ambitious given the already-extreme pricing for stocks, not just in the tech sector, but just about everywhere among the most actives. In JP Morgan's case, the reported numbers fell short of estimates, which ran contrary to the pre-midterms operations (PMO™). Goldman Sachs had no excuse, reporting beats on both top and bottom lines, other than profit taking.

It's not a coincidence that bank stocks lead off each earnings season. The accounting games played by the big money banks are legendary, their statements largely about as clear-cut as a mud hole, but, as a group, they almost always deliver positive results, offering to investors the perception of an overall growing, robust economy, led by the banks that serve as the foundation of American enterprise.

After Tuesday's rout, scratch that. The reality to which the wisened investors on Wall Street have awakened is that major banks are black holes of depository debt, sketchy loans and even sketchier accounting practices. Bank of America (BAC) opened Wednesday's pre-market action by announcing Q3 profit falling 17% on a $1.2B penalty for anti-money-laundering activity and slower trading activity. Put in simpler terms, BofA was duly engaged in money laundering, got caught and shareholders are paying the price. BAC stock is down seven percent prior to the opening bell.

In addition to Bank of America, these companies also reported Q3 results Wednesday morning:
Morgan Stanley (MS) - top, bottom beat, shares down 3% pre-market
BlackRock (BLK) - Huge EPS and revenue beat, stock up over two percent pre-market
State Street (STT) - EPS beat, revenue miss results in 9% slide
ASML (ASML) - Earnings beat, revenue miss, shares down two percent
Progressive Insurance (PGR) - shares off six percent pre-market

Additionally, Wells Fargo (WFC) missed top and bottom, sending share down 1-2 percent. Citigroup (C) topped estimates but is down 1.5% heading toward the opening bell.

Maybe the bank stocks aren't all that pristine and investable. Understanding that they serve as the foundation of American enterprise and at the whims of government and big money interests labels them as some of the most corrupt companies on the planet, responsible for all manner of crimes and misdemeanors, from money-laundering to funding for enterprises set up to fail after seed investors extract profits. Lately, the retail banks (BAC, JPM, WFC, C) have been covering their tracks by under-reporting loan loss provisions. With consumers and small businesses stretched to the edge of survivability, credit usage has surged - even at rates of 10-20-30% - and bankruptcy filings are on the rise. The banks haven't disclosed much of what's happening underneath the hood, and many are exposed to credit defaults on commercial real estate and the AI hyperscaler build-out.

Wednesday also had a nasty surprise in September CPI, delivered an hour prior to the open:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month following a 2.1-percent increase in August. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent and the index for food at home fell 0.1 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel. Conversely, the index for communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased in September.

The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August. The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year.

Futures took a serious nose-dive on the CPI news and have not recovered as the opening bell approaches. This is not going according to plan as the possibility of another rate hike by the Fed at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting comes into play.

Presently, the markets are behaving badly, as they should, given the current conditions. Reality strikes back.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 13, 2026:
Dow: 51,670.10, -180.45 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 27,204.38, -41.52 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 7,805.45, -1.79 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,985.00, -5.72 (-0.02%)

Stocks Flat for Columbus Day; United Health (UNH), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) Boost Pre-Market with Solid 3rd Quarter Results

Editor's Note: While Money Daily strives to offer financial content in a timely manner, but there is no accounting for spotty internet service or non-loading pages from sources. We apologize for today's delayed and brief report. --FR

Stocks were little changed on Monday, awaiting the first of third quarter earnings reports from leading financial institutions on Tuesday.

Capital markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

JP Morgan (JPM) delivered the usual boost, rising more than one percent prior to the open.

Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a third quarter revenue beat of 10% and delivered diluted EPS of $17.01 against an estimated $13.18. Net revenues were $18.68 billion compared to the estimated $16.89 billion.

Both companies are Dow components. As the opening bell approaches, futures are split, with Dow futures up more than 400 points, thanks largely to positive third quarter returns from United Health (UNH), up more than 4.5% in pre-market trading, along with gains from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

WTI Crude Oil Futures continue to maintain prices in a range from $90-93/barrel. Gold and silver are diverging Tuesday morning, with gold higher, though still below $4,200 per ounce and silver retesting lows below $60/ounce.

This all ends badly once the midterms are complete.

At the Close, Monday, October 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,850.55, +195.60 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 27,245.90, -120.27 (-0.44%)
S&P 500: 7,807.24, -4.30 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 23,990.73, +51.63 (+0.22%)