WEEKEND WRAP: War Ramps Up Again in Middle East; Oil Prices Explode Higher; Stocks Take on Water, even as Earnings Emerge; Silver Shattered

Anybody with functioning brain cells should be able to grasp the current condition, wherein the only things that cost less this week than last were some stocks, gold, and silver.

Face it, citizens of the world, you're being reamed!

Nobody is safe from the ravages of American exceptionalism gone wild. Especially hard hit are the people living in the Middle East, from Iran to Israel and all points adjacent and in between. Under President Trump and the useless congress that is supposed to be a check and balance on the power of the executive branch, the U.S. government is a runaway freight train to a disastrous future, to say nothing of the psychotic present.

Call it whatever one likes, the war in the Middle East, with Iran as the direct target, is back on with a vengeance. It's only a matter of time before the Iranians commence bombing Israel with increasing devastation. It will come as a response to the U.S. blatantly attacking civilian infrastructure in Iran, hoping to cripple its ability to defend itself and communicate with the citizenry.

The United States continues to act with impunity, against dictates of the Geneva Convention and other treaties concerning the conduct of war. It's obvious that President Trump and his closest advisors couldn’t care less about treaties and any kind of peacekeeping or humanitarian effort.

For what it's worth, most Americans are opposed to what the U.S. is doing militarily in the Middle East and Ukraine. Upwards of 60% of people polled recently think continued strikes against Iran are a bad idea and that percentage also applies toward Ukraine. People generally regard war as abhorrent and unwise. In a nutshell, anybody who cheers on continued bombing and military conflict for political purposes is an ass-hole, a group that includes not only the president himself and his advisors, but nearly everybody in the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill.

The United States is being run into the ground by war-mongering neocons whose only goals are money and power. Americans, and, indeed, the rest of the world deserves better.

Stocks

Overall, it was a bummer of a week for stockholders, especially in the tech sector, which continues to be ravaged by fears of capex exceeding reasonable returns and some well-timed profit-taking. The week was largely a spectacle of companies declaring better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, only to see share prices tank on the news. That kind of "sell the news" mentality bodes ill for the weeks and months ahead. Not only have many Americans lost trust in institutions, they are growingly losing faith in the stock market and the economy, which seems to be running on past glory rather than hopes for increased productivity and growth.

The U.S. infrastructure continues to crumble even as plans are being made for more stress on the grid via data centers around the nation. The fight in local communities regarding data centers has grown into a fierce battle. This week New York Governor Kathy Hochul became the first to declare a state-wide ban on building new data centers. Other local counties across the country have proposed and passed similar bans, citing rising electrical bills for consumers and extensive draining of local water supplies.

Second quarter earnings will be front and center again this week, with tech names scattered throughout the landscape of companies reporting. It's a real smorgasbord of reporting, covering everything from retail, to airlines, banking, to mining.

Monday: (before open) Domino's Pizza (DPZ), AMC (AMC), Ryanair (RYAAY); (after close) Zions Bancorporation (ZION), Crown Holdings (CCK), Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday: (before open) Ally (ALLY), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Alaska Airlines (ALK), EastWest Bank (EWBC)

Wednesday: (before open) Moody's (MCO), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Pulte Group (PHM); (after close) IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Thursday: (before open) Cliffs (CLF), American Airlines (AAL), Blackstone Group (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Nokia (NOK); (after close) Newmont Mining (NEM), Intel (INTC), Deckers (DECK), Sallie Mae (SLM)

Friday: (before open) Charter Communications (CHTR), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Conversely, data releases will be slim, most of the important announcements coming Friday, with Building Permits for June before the opening bell, floowed by New Home Sales at 10:00 am ET.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06
07/17/2026	3.73	3.75	3.80	3.85	3.91	3.96	4.01

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06
07/17/2026	4.18	4.21	4.28	4.40	4.55	5.07	5.06

Treasury yields remained elevated, with 10-year note yields holding at 4.55% and 30-year bond yields at 5.06 as the week ended. The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh doesn't seem at all interested in intervening in the natural flow of money and they are becoming more and more tight-lipped about any of their proposed actions, which, considering the current environment of crosswinds - inflation on one side and employment on the other - gives the markets practically nothing from which to draw conclusions.

Spreads deviated, with 2s-10s higher at +37, but full spectrum (30-days - 30 years) dipping two basis points, to +133. There's absolutely nothing to be ascertained from this data other than the Fed is not about to move in any particular direction unless there's clear evidence, one way or the other. There is an FOMC meeting next week (July 28-29), but it appears that the Fed is going to hold steady on rates.

Reiterating last week's sentiment, smart money continues to contend that the Fed will do nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest, but re-engagement by the U.S. and Iran in a military confrontation throws all predictions into the blender. It's getting close to a situation in which the odds for a recession or blowout inflation are nearly equal. There's a chance Americans and Europeans may see both over the next 12-18 months.

If stocks continue to show weakness, there could be a considerable flow of money into fixed-income, given that yields appear to be generous at present. Rising prices for energy could be a catalyst for not only a severe decline in equities, but also a huge rally in bonds, though locking in yields for any maturity past two years seems a bit on the risky side. If, for instance, the 10-year pops above five percent and the 30-year above 5.65%, today's yields would be a losing proposition. With inflation/recession odds nearly equal, there are likely to be more losers than winners in both stocks and bonds given the uncertainties facing the various markets.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $81.77, a major boost from last week's closeout at $71.43 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. The obvious reason for the sudden blowout in oil is the resumption of serious military action in the region, with strikes and counter-strikes coming from the main protagonists, the U.S. and Iran. While the U.S. has largely stuck to destroying military installations near and around the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, they've also begun hammering infrastructure inside the country, targeting radio and cell towers in an attempt to cut off communications.

Iran has countered with strikes on airbases in U.S.-allied countries, including Jordan, where, supposedly, two American soldiers will killed, bringing the "official" death toll of Americans to a barely believable 16. OK. While the U.S. is supposedly winning the war, why is the cost of filling up my SUV continuing to go up?

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.82 last week and $3.97 this week, as the Middle East tinderbox exploded with military strikes throughout the region, the MOU between the U.S. and Iran completely shattered and an energy crisis dead ahead.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they have largely reached bottoms. With reserves exhausted, conditions are ripe for a return to $5 gas in the U.S., as the president completely disregards the welfare of U.S. citizens. Prices should reach near-record levels in coming weeks as there seems to be no path toward resolution other than annihilation. It's a sad state of affairs.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.47 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.00 (+0.06)
Indiana (lowest): $3.36 (+0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.52 (+0.16)
Mississippi: $3.54 (+0.13)
Florida: $3.97 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.15 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.19 (+0.24)
New York: $4.10 (+0.05)
Maryland: $3.99 (+0.14)
Michigan: $3.15 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.55 (+0.16)
Georgia: $3.74 (+0.20)

On Sunday, July 12th, there are seventeen (17) states with average prices above $4.00, with 31 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.41) and Alaska ($4.70), with just one above $5 (California) and one right at the mark (Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past eight weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.52-3.74) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.63 to $3.88. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.36) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,539.98
Last week: $64,092.58
2 weeks ago: $62,699.50
6 months ago: $92,019.80
One year ago: $118,429.20
Five years ago: $34,280.88

Bitcoin was relatively flat on the week, which is somewhat surprising, considering the problems in congress getting the CLARITY act to the finish line before the August recess. The bill is supposed to provide regulatory guidelines for crypto, but there are still sticking points related to stablecoins, DeFi, and blockchain developers. The bill was originally planned for passage coinciding with Independence Day, July 4, but the attempt to tie slave money on a blockchain to freedom and liberty failed miserably, as it should have.

The bill needs to overcome a 60-vote threshold due to filibuster rules in the Senate. It is arguably some of the worst financial regulation mishmash ever created. By that standard, however, it's surprising the money-grubbing bandits in congress haven't fully endorsed it.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 71.84; last week: 68.83

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90
Gold price 7/17: $4,023.00

Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30
Silver price 7/17: $56.22

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70
Gold 7/17: $4,016.89

Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85
Silver 7/17: $55.91

Precious metals took another in an elongated series of hits last week, especially silver, which is now down more than 50% from previous highs in January. It's a distressing situation, which may be signaling disinflation or general demand destruction on a grand scale. Given the military uses for silver and the continuing shortage of metal, however, there could come a moment at which traders stop seeking a bottom and begin going long again.

Central banks are continuing to buy gold as a Tier 1` asset, outpacing Treasuries, and they're getting their loot at a discount. Dollar strength appears to have won the day for U.S. interests, but one has to wonder just how long the might greenback can remain elevated. Gold is not about to replace it, at least not in the very near term, but accumulation of tons of gold bars by national central banks surely has the dollar squarely in the crosshairs. Prices being as low as they are at present suggests a buying opportunity for those preferring patience over instant success.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	63.99	74.22	67.58	66.17
1 oz silver bar:	57.67	81.55	69.54	69.23
1 oz gold coin:	4102.07	4304.79	4228.40	4236.95
1 oz gold bar:	4164.79	4363.89	4225.37	4210.40

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped substantially, closing the week at $68.13, for a decline of $4.32 per troy ounce from the July 12 price of $72.45.

WEEKEND WRAP

With worldwide tension mounting over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, there is a silver lining. Even though ambitious senators and congressional members invoked the name of Lindsey Graham over the past week and especially on the Sunday morning talk shows, he remains dead, a condition neither an antichrist nor a messiah can change.

The world is a better place when war-mongers are eliminated from the herd and Senator Graham, responsible for the deaths of thousands, if not millions of innocent people, is better off soon forgotten.

At the Close, Friday, July 17, 2026:
Dow: 52,146.42, -406.55 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 25,520.24, -361.70 (-1.40%)
S&P 500: 7,457.69, -76.08 (-1.01%)
NYSE Composite: 23,816.97, -135.30 (-0.56%)

For the Week:
Dow: -490.59 (-0.93%)
NASDAQ: -761.37 (-2.90%)
S&P 500: -117.70 (-1.55%)
NYSE Composite: -108.10 (-0.45%)
Dow Transports: -546.01 (-2.46%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

America's Middle Class Under Assault; General Malaise and Poor Sentiment Strikes Wall Street; Oil, Interest Rates Spike

Four days into the current earnings season, sentiment has shifted from a case of the market could do no wrong to taking profits at the earliest occasion and selling off losers before the bottom falls out.

Through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow Industrials have lost 84 points, the NASDAQ is down 400, and the bellwether S&P 500 has shed 41 points. All of this is becoming a bit unnerving for the investor class, as if they're about to be catching down to the pain and loathing of the bottom 80%. Those, the vast bulk of the U.S. population that has lesser exposure to stocks but is more attuned to the ravages of inflation or even unstable prices and even more unstable political leadership, is worn out, tapped out, using credit cards for everyday expenses, and growing more and more unsettled by the day.

Two earners with full-time jobs and kids are barely able to make ends meet these days, what with high food and energy prices, ballooning house prices and attendant mortgages, property taxes increasing far beyond normal inflation and just about everything else costing 20-40% more than just a few short years ago. Unsustainably high housing prices with attendant food and energy inflation is bringing the national economy to a standstill, with any excess going to the oligarch monopoly corporations like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Ebay, and Microsoft, all of which are facing severe headwinds as the world struggles through 2026.

Appetites for high fees, high taxes, and high levels of propaganda are growing slim. It's enough to see the government take 25% or more out of everybody's paycheck, but the financial squeeze becomes unbearable facing skyrocketing prices for services like insurance, car repairs, and medical expenses. The bone-crushing weight of excessive price acceleration has turned the country into little more than an open wage-slave plantation.

Wall Street may have profited well from this condition up until now, but the bloom has come off the rose and it's beginning to affect stocks in very disturbing ways. Thus far, just days into second quarter earnings breakouts, companies reporting solid results are seeing share prices drop. Those not meeting or exceeding expectations are feeling even more pain. Take, for example, Netflix (NFLX), which reported in-line Thursday night, though internals continued to crumble. The stock is sliding 11 percent in the pre-market as the pre-eminent streaming service is caught between an inability to raise prices in a fiercely competitive environment, declining subscriptions, and a round of poorly-received original content. The company, though still profitable, is on its knees when it comes to consumer satisfaction. Nobody seems willing to pay premium prices for sub-standard offerings.

Alongside the general malaise in consumer-facing companies is the growing perception that AI is not nearly able to justify the expensive, expansive buildout and investors are being shaken out from positions in the headline users and chip-related concerns.

After the shearing stocks suffered on Thursday, Friday's open portends outright spillage, as tensions and fighting escalated for a sixth straight day in the Persian Gulf, oil prices are spiking higher (WTI crude futures above $80/barrel) and Friday's stock futures are tanking. Dow futures are down 330 points, NASDAQ futures are off 550, and S&P futures are cratering, down 70 points with 45 minutes until the opening bell.

Yields are also chiming in, with the 10-year note hitting 4.59% and the 30-year at 5.12% Thursday.

It's not helping that the Northeast and Midwest are being blanketed with smoke from Canadian wildfires.

Realistically, there's no good way out from the global conditions that have been set down by political and economic policies of the past. The debt explosion that borrows from the future is beginning to be reflected in the present.

At the Close, Thursday, July 16, 2026: Dow: 52,552.97, -105.67 (-0.20%) NASDAQ: 25,881.95, -387.28 (-1.47%) S&P 500: 7,533.77, -38.63 (-0.51%) NYSE Composite: 23,952.27, +79.74 (+0.33%)

Earnings Solid Overall; Sell the News in Play; Gold, Silver Continue Under Pressure

With CPI and PPI for June in the rear-view mirror, traders can focus on earnings for the rest of the week. The general consensus is positive. Many companies are reporting earnings beats, spurring the market higher.

A number of big names reported second quarter earnings Thursday morning:

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - record profit, $100 billion Arizona investment, shares down 4% pre-market
US Bancorp (USB) - Top and bottom beat, stock down one percent
State Street (STT) - In-line report, stock down two percent
United Health (UNH) - Big beat, revises guidance higher, shares up six percent
Abbot Labs (ABT) - Strong quarter, raises forecast, shares up 4% pre-market
GE Aerospace (GE) - Beats expectations, raises guidance, the stock falls 3%

June retail sales were up a modest 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase in five months. Falling prices for gas at the pump depressed the overall picture. Motor vehicles and parts dealers grew sales by 1.9%, e-commerce) rose 1.9%, and sporting goods and hobby stores added 1.3%. May’s figure was revised upward, from a 0.9% gain to a full 1.0%, which matters for context.

Other than earnings, escalation in the Middle East, and an OK sales report, there isn't much to move stocks, though there seems to be a "sell the news" attitude, with solid earnings reports being met with selling.

Precious metals continue to be abused. Silver fell below $56 this morning and gold dropped below $4000. It's apparent the LBMA has not relinquished control over paper markets, skewing prices to reflect their abhorrence of real money.

It never ends.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 15, 2026:
Dow: 52,658.64, +150.34 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,269.23, +162.23 (+0.62%)
S&P 500: 7,572.40, +28.81 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,872.53, +25.93 (+0.11%)

PPI Soft in June, Down 0.3%; Market Reaction Subdued as WTI Crude Approaches $80/Barrel; IBM Bellwether Drops 25%, Should Continue to Fall

On Tuesday, the BLS produced a rosy June CPI, with inflation easing due to lower oil and gas prices. That didn't inspire as big a rally as some may have expected, since lower inflation would encourage the Fed to keep interest rates where they are or even lower them. Another possibility is that the market is simply exhausted. Stocks have been sailing right along since 2023, with only minor breaks for presidential actions, specifically, Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, 2025, and the recent U.S.-Iran conflict from March.

Profits have been easy pickings, and there's a good possibility that institutional investors have seen enough, made enough, and are cycling out.

Still, stocks did show gains, despite the fallout from IBM's 25% drop, the worst in the company's history, as companies slash budgets for software and consulting, and Big Blue issued an ill-timed earnings warning. Anybody with a sense of history will understand why a bellwether stock like IBM should be trading at or below $100/share as opposed to the current fantasy of $217 to be considered fair value. When that happens - and it will - stocks will be worth buying again. The monstrous drop in shares of IBM was like a warning shot across the bows of many Wall Street trading desks.

The action in markets on Tuesday was strongly suggestive of recession fears emerging. The U.S. economy, despite the punditry and hype, could be leveling out at stall speed with GDP probably the worst measurement possible. There's no jobs growth and prospects for the next 6-12 months are cloudy at best.

So, today, the BLS follows up with a dovish PPI:

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in May and 1.1 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 5.5 percent for the 12 months ended in June.

The June decline in the index for final demand can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which fell 1.4 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.1 percent in June after jumping 0.8 percent in May. For the 12 months ended in June, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.1 percent.

Market reaction was once again muted, though not without the customary knee-jerk response in stock futures, which leapt higher.

With the open less than half an hour ahead, Dow futures are up 142 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 181, and S&P futures are up 21 points, not exactly a ringing endorsement, but good enough to keep traders busy.

Gold also got a boost, just like it did yesterday, only to give back most of the gains. Silver is moribund at $58.65. Gold: $4070 per troy ounce.

WTI crude oil approaching $80 per barrel is keeping a lid on everything.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 14, 2026:
Dow: 52,508.27, +9.63 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,107.01, +233.83 (+0.90%)
S&P 500: 7,543.59, +28.25 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,846.60, -49.45 (-0.21%)

Banks Lead Early Earnings Calls; CPI Falls by Most in Six Years Due to Lower Gas, Oil Prices; Wall Street Split on Inflation

Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JP Morgan (JPM) kicked off second quarter earnings season with a bang.

The largest financial institutions in America delivered results beyond the expectations of Wall Street analysts.

Goldman Sachs said revenue from its equities trading division rose 72% year over year to $7.4 billion. Its investment bank reported $3.4 billion in revenue, its highest quarterly figure since 2021, driven by its M&A advisory and equity underwriting groups.

The equity underwriting division, which includes underwriting initial public offerings, earned fees from several of the quarter's biggest AI-related deals, including SpaceX's (SPCX) blockbuster IPO and Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) even larger follow-on stock sale. Revenue from that unit jumped 130% to $985 million.

JP Morgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender posted a profit of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, in the three months ended June 30, compared with $14.99 billion, or $5.24 per share, ⁠a year earlier.

At 8:30 am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued the June CPI report, cheering on Wall Street with a soft inflation report for June.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June after rising 0.5 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June after rising 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food. The index for food increased 0.2 percent over the month, as did the index for food at home and the index for food away from home.

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June. Indexes that decreased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and personal care were among the major indexes that increased in June.

The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.9-percent increase over the 12 months ending May. The energy index increased 15.7 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.

This constituted the single-largest drop in the CPI since April 2020, the drop in oil and gas prices being the main element. With war ramping back up in the Middle East, this could be a one off, but, for today, markets seem willing to take it with multiple grains of salt. After the initial knee-jerk reaction in stock futures, the indices have dropped back to more reasonable levels. Anything could happen today.

At the Close, Monday, June 13, 2026:
Dow: 52,498.64, -138.37 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ: 25,873.18, -408.43 (-1.55%)
S&P 500: 7,515.34, -60.05 (-0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 23,896.05, -29.03 (-0.12%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Lindsey Graham Dead; Iran-U.S. Conflict Escalating; Bank Earnings to Dominate the Week; Crude Oil, Treasuries Near Breaking Points

Change has come.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham died suddenly on Saturday, July 11, throwing the senior senate seat November election into a whirlwind. Beyond what appears to be a developing scramble drill for Republicans to field a suitable candidate, Governor Henry McMaster is tasked with the responsibility to appoint a replacement for Graham through the remaining Senate calendar, January 3, 2027.

McMaster's appointment does not imply that the person will be the candidate for the election in November. A special Republican primary must be held to select a new GOP nominee. The filing period could open as early as July 21, with the primary possibly scheduled for August 11. This matters because the balance of power in the Senate is already close, with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Graham was seen as a shoo-in in November. Now that's up in the air.

Also developing over the weekend is escalation in the Iran-U.S. conflict. Both parties have engaged in heavy military actions, pretty much dealing the MOU a death blow. The region could be back to full-scale war within days as Iran has reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. is considering re-establishing its blockade and launching more substantial assaults against Iran in coming days.

While politics and militarism aren't directly related to financial affairs, they do have their own degrees of impact on economies, in the case of Iran, the global economy. Graham's death will reverberate in the U.S. economy, though the impact is likely to be negligible, unless the Democrats take control of the Senate, or House, or both, which is a real possibility since President Trump's approval ratings on everything from inflation to foreign policy are swirling the toilet bowl. Despite what the White House tries to spin as "American Greatness", the sitting president is not well-liked. A shift in the balance of power to the Democrats would make him an automatic lame duck since he cant run again, as well as possible impeachment.

Add to the intrigue the health condition of Kentucky's senior senator, Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized since Thursday and has not be exactly "on the job" for months. In the case of his death or inability to serve out the remainder of his term, Kentucky law stipulates that a special election be held, not an appointment by the governor. Possible legal challenges may emerge.

With so much riding on the November midterms, expect the White House and Republicans in general to fully engage in whatever tactics might win the elections. There's been lying, cheating, and assorted dirty tricks played out in previous elections, but this time around might bring out the absolute worst, which, in terms of politicians, could be false flags, complete fabrications, murders, gaslighting, and blackmail.

There's less than four months until the midterms. Have your popcorn ready because the fireworks are sure to be spectacular.

Stocks

The Dow was down, but the NASDAQ and S&P gained on the week. Nothing unusual about that, as money moves along the path of least resistance, which, in this case, was back into buying the tech dip. There is surely no dearth of ready money.

Upcoming second quarter earnings will be front and center this week. Banks and Dow components will dominate early returns.

Tuesday (before open) Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Fastenal (FAST), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close) Loop Industries (LOOP)

Wednesday (before open) ASML (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive Insurance (PGR), Conagra (CAG), Cintas (CTAS); (after close) United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Thursday (before open) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), US Bancorp (USB), State Street (STT), Citizens Financial (CFG), United Health (UNH), Abbot Labs (ABT), GE Aerospace (GE); (after close) Alcoa (AA), Netflix (NFLX), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Friday (before open) Regions Financial (RF), Truist (TFC), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Travelers (TRV)

The big data points will be the release of CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday, both prior to the opening bell. Indications are for higher inflation expectations and higher numbers overall. However, given how fluid conditions have become, no matter what the numbers reveal, the market response is likely to take it in the worst way. That, however, runs afoul of what are expected to be strong earnings reports from the nation's biggest financial institutions.

Trading may become something resembling a tennis match, with averages jumping one way and the other, sentiment changing on the fly. It doesn't get more challenging for traders than this. Nobody is certain of anything, especially general direction.

June Retail Sales on Thursday are likely to have some impact. Any hint of a slowdown could send stocks into a funk. It's going to be a make it, break it , or fake it week.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96
07/10/2026	3.71	3.74	3.81	3.85	3.94	3.99	4.06

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98
07/10/2026	4.21	4.22	4.30	4.42	4.56	5.08	5.06

Treasury yields were yanked higher over the week as front-running MidEast escalation supported a rush to safety in a rather dramatic fashion. Nothing in the mainstream financial media suggested anything amiss, as usual, blind to conditions favoring chaotic developments. The 30-year closed out the week at 5.06% with the 10-year note yielding 4.56%, both above closely-watched breaking points.

Spreads deviated, with 2s-10s holding at +35, but full spectrum (30-days - 30 years) blowing out to +135, the highest this year.

Smart money suggests that the Fed will do nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest, but re-engagement by the U.S. and Iran in a military confrontation throws all predictions into the blender. It's getting close to a situation in which the odds for a recession or blowout inflation are nearly equal. There's a chance Americans and Europeans may see both over the next 12-18 months.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $71.43, nearly four percent higher than last week's closeout at $68.78 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. That number may prove to be a very temporary low because over the weekend, tension between the U.S. and Iran has snapped, with escalating military strikes from both sides, the U.S. attacking southern Iran while the Iranians initiate missile strikes against U.S. assets in the region, particularly in Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.72 last week and $3.82 this week, reflecting - with some degree of immediacy - the fragile Middle East peace structure unraveling.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but they are close to hitting bottoms. Once reserves are exhausted, which could be within weeks if conditions remain volatile, the price of crude oil would be expected to reach extremes, sending gas prices at the pump soaring once again.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.34 (+0.01)
Washington: $4.94 (-0.08)
Indiana (lowest): $3.25 (+0.20)
Oklahoma : $3.36 (+0.12)
Mississippi: $3.41 (+0.05)
Florida: $3.80 (+0.04)
Illinois: $4.06 (+0.10)
Pennsylvania: $3.95 (0.00)
New York: $4.05 (+0.02)
Maryland: $3.85 (+0.16)
Michigan: $3.93 (-0.02)
Texas: $3.39 (+0.12)
Georgia: $3.54 (+0.04)

On Sunday, July 12th, there are six (6) states with average prices above $4.00, with 42 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.51) and Alaska ($4.67), with just one above $5 (California). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past seven weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.36-3.58) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.46 to $3.78. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.25) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,092.58
Last week: $62,699.50
2 weeks ago: $60,194.49
6 months ago: $91.418.20
One year ago: $120,551.90
Five years ago: $31,539.02

Bitcoin rallied a little bit this week, though it didn't hit any meaningful level. The crypto universe remains in a bear market, one that could actually worse, given current, uncertain conditions.

Bitcoin and crypto in general remain among the worst investments of 2026. Bitcoin is down 27% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 68.83; last week: 67.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30
Gold price 7/10: $4,128.90

Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81
Silver price 7/10: $60.30

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76
Gold 7/10: $4,119.70

Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93
Silver 7/10: $59.85

Prices for precious metals remained under pressure over the course of the week, the COMEX and LBMA fully in control via futures contract manipulation. It would be logical to believe that gold would see a rapid price hike on Monday, given the escalation in the Middle East and overall disruptive conditions on a global scale. At the same time, that would underestimate the Western-based cartel's ability ot control prices.

No matter the case, gold and silver continue to provide a sliver of hope in a world that's seemingly gone mad. Normally, under such conditions, gold would warp higher, with silver following along. Economics, however, being turned on its head, argues otherwise, suggesting that stocks and paper money are far more valuable than bricks, bars, tokens, or coins made from rare elements. One would have to suspend credulity to entertain such a belief.

The world continues to break apart, East versus West. Until Russia, China, India, et. al. assert their dominant positions in precious metals, the U.S. and Western forces will continue to engage in fiat-based public fantasies. Aiding the cause of the West are rising interest rates, making fixed income instruments with improving yields appear the better bet in an inflationary environment.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	64.95	90.23	73.68	70.50
1 oz silver bar:	68.48	80.66	73.19	72.43
1 oz gold coin:	4288.45	4468.86	4376.90	4365.50
1 oz gold bar:	4283.36	4481.02	4322.00	4305.92

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dropped slightly, finishing the week at $72.45, for a loss of 80 cents per troy ounce from the July 5 price of $73.25.

WEEKEND WRAP

A week ago, in the aftermath of America's 250th birthday, conditions appeared ripe for a summer lull, with stocks just pushing higher gradually, without major disruptions in political, social, or economic arenas. That's all changed. The political situation got a jolt of electricity with Senator Graham's death. Gloves have come off. Democrats sense victory. Republicans understand they're in for the fight of their lives. The war with Iran is back on; oil prices - and that means inflation - could be about to rebound.

What may be a silver lining for the economy is the idea that with the politicians focused on keeping their jobs in November, the chance for any meaningful legislation before November is close to nil. Wall Street loves periods in which the government isn't around to muck up the works, so, there remains a very good chance that stocks will continue on their merry ways, to "infinity and beyond," though the situation in the Middle East - and to a lesser extent, Ukraine - might throw a spanner into the works.

Keep in mind, just because current conditions are interesting, doesn't imply that they're good.

At the Close, Friday, July 10, 2026:
Dow: 52,637.01, +149.60 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,281.61, +74.72 (+0.29%)
S&P 500: 7,575.39, +31.75 (+0.42%)
NYSE Composite: 23,925.07, +48.23 (+0.20%)

For the Week:
Dow: -263.06 (-0.50%)
NASDAQ: +448.94 (+1.74%)
S&P 500: +92.15 (+1.23%)
NYSE Composite: -32.01 (-0.13%)
Dow Transports: +162.75 (+0.74%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Generally Higher Because the System Works That Way; Fighting the Fed and the Government Is a Not a Strategy; Keep Buying

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average has lost some 412 points through the close of trading Thursday. Conversely, the NASDAQ is up 374 points, and the S&P is up 60.

WTI futures traded above $74 earlier in the week, but have retreated back to a range around $72 per barrel. There's really not much to see regarding the macro picture. Nothing much has changed.

Stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, a condition that has more or less prevailed for the last three? five? twenty? years. It's kept alive by a combination of excessive government spending, relentless expansion of the money supply by the Fed, and Wall Street hustlers who variably use greed (you can have it all) and fear (FOMO) to encourage anybody with any kind of disposable income to buy stocks.

Those with the most disposable income are the top earners, billionaire hedge fund managers, private offices, and corporate executives themselves, who have benefitted the most from the churning and grinding at the Fed, in Washington, and on Wall Street. Anybody lucky enough to have invested in stocks over the past 20 years or so has made handsome returns and is living the good life.

Naturally, the main element is the Federal Reserve, the central banking authority that is charged with keeping the economy chugging along lik a monetary locomotive, printing money out of thin air and showering it upon the masses. There is literally nothing the people at the Fed would do to restrain credit or money creation. Keeping their counterfeiting operation going is their foremost priority, not full employment or stable prices. Those so called mandates are just for show and the government largely provides more than enough manipulated data to support the claims that the economy is growing, people have jobs and inflation is under control, all laughably spurious arguments.

Because employment and inflation data are control mechanisms of the government, they have been, and will continue to be providing narrative cover for the Fed's printing press. Unemployment figures are fantasies considering the labor force participation rate, currently at all-time lows. GDP is supported by transfer payments. More than half the people in the U.S. welfare-warfare state receive some level of government support, be it welfare checks, food stamps, social security benefits or farm subsidies.

Government polices consist of spending and welfare, a little taxing, and a lot of borrowing. While these conditions would be reprehensible to any honest accountant or economist, they are the strings that pull together the American experience. Pay your taxes, feed your families, and invest whatever you have left over in the stock market. Ignore the huddled masses in tent cities and homeless shelters. The government has them covered and they're not a concern of yours.

This objectionable, twisted form of fascist capitalism will prevail. As earnings season goes into full sprint the next three weeks, the path of least resistance is clearly up, up, and away.

Expect new highs on all the major indices within two weeks because the system, like it or not, works that way. and, as the mobsters say after whacking an operative who has strayed, "there's nothing we could do about it."

Pay no attention to the doomers and gloomers who say that the current condition is unsustainable, that $40 trillion in debt is beyond the pale, that stocks are overdue for a correction. Buy the dips. Buy the rips. Just keep buying.

At the Close, Thursday, July 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,487.41, +139.02 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ: 26,206.89, +336.24 (+1.30%)
S&P 500: 7,543.64, +60.93 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,876.84, +86.23 (+0.36%)

America's Failure at "Football" Exposes the Myth of Exceptionalism, Skewers the Narrative, and Makes the U.S. Look Stupid and Weak

Americans call the game "soccer." The rest of the world calls it "football."

Once again, American exceptionalism exposes the soft belly underneath the rhetoric. America wants to define the terms without having mastered the basic concepts.

America's national team in the 2026 World Cup showed - as it does, like clockwork, every four years - that the United States is entirely uncompetitive in the world's favorite sport. America talks a good game... or, rather, the blathering idiots like Carly Lloyd, Alexi Lalas, and Landon Donovan talk up the team like its the second coming of the Light Brigade, praising U.S. players as if they are on a par with the likes of Mbape, Renaldo, or Messi. The first clue to the myth-making is that no American player is recognized by one name, like the greats from France, Portugal, or Argentina. No, America is at best second rate when it comes to the world of football, but fans and TV talking heads can't help gushing over what turn out to be just ordinary exploits.

Every four years, Americans get to hear the same, tired nonsense, about how far America has come in terms of competitiveness at the World Cup, how this team or these players comprise a growing, emerging explosion of football greatness from sea to shining sea. It's always the same: the U.S. team can't even make the quarterfinals and are usually embarrassed in the earlier rounds by European squads which know how to play the game and win games.

This year's fiasco was none different from past failures. In the Group Stage, hopes were raised that the USA had finally arrived, beating Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey to qualify for the knockout rounds. Announcers were all too eager to call this team "one of the best ever," and a "basis for the future." What they failed to observe was that the United States beat up some very second-rate or third-rate teams in their easy grouping. None of the teams in the group, including the United States, has ever won a World Cup championship. So, with attendant sound and fury, the United States team sailed into the Round of 32 and defeat an infant team from Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2-nil. The whoops and chants of USA-USA-USA grew louder, but the real test was yet to come, when the U.S. faced Belgium in the Round of 16.

The 4-1 loss to Belgium completed the story. The United States was completely outclassed by the Belgian nationals, many of whose players are veterans of various European leagues. Further, Belgium takes its football quite seriously. After a third place finish in the 2018 World Cup, Belgium was ousted in Group play in 2022, and a concerted effort was made to improve off that disappointment with better players, smarter coaches, and strategic thinking. They absolutely schooled their American counterparts in a completely one-sided, 4-1, rout.

Despite the continuous chorus of America's team's emergence into the elite of the football world, what fans everywhere saw was a team that lacked any kind of defensive cohesion, giving up two early goals that most teams would have easily defended. The third goal, off a grievous error by U.S. goalkeeper, Matt Freese, was the ultimate embarrassment and put the game completely out of reach. The United States failed to generate any good scoring chances, their lone goal coming on a fortunate ball on a free kick. Other than that, they were flat, outplayed, and out-coached. The United States was the only team - out of 32 - in the knockout stage to allow four goals, which brings us to the meat of the matter...

Americans, especially these days, with a loudmouth braggart occupying the White House, consider themselves to be superior to the rest of the world and routinely announce such to anybody within earshot. Of course, Americans with IQs above room temperature understand that all the posturing and posing by the USA in any field, be it mathematics, industry, snowboarding, or anything else, is usually unwarranted and the World Cup fiasco is the perfect metaphor for all of the meaningless, loud-mouthed spoutng of platitudes, greatness, and world dominance.

The United States doesn't dominate in anything other than bragging and blowing up people and countries that don't agree with its obviously-flawed rationale for why others should bend the knee to the American Empire. Just like the World Cup football team, the United States is second rate in everything when compared to other leading countries of the world, China and Russia, especially. Over the past 60 or so years, the United States has been reduced from being a shining, productive, innovative nation to one which has ignored the needs of its citizens, failed to upgrade infrastructure, and has brought new meaning to the term "wealth disparity."

The country may lead in some rare categories. U.S. politicians rank as some of the most corrupt. The United States also is very-highly ranked for putting narratives before reality. The press corps in the United States is among the global leaders in propaganda, spewing half-truths and outright lies on a regular basis.

There's a lesson or two to be learned from the World Cup experience but Ameircans are unlikely to learn them, being too pre-occupied with the latest celebrity romance or corporate scandal. Greatness cannot be achieved by talking about it. Greatness is earned by accomplishment. Advancing to the quarterfinals of the next World Cup would be a giant step in the right direction, but America won't likely make the commitment to improve nor put the right people in the right places. The entire structure of USA "football" will be dominated by failures and opportunists, quick buck artists, and lazy thinkers.

Just like America's military escapades in Ukraine and the Middle East, the World Cup experience exposes the United States as what they refer to in Texas as, "big hat, no cattle."

Because the stock market is at or near all-time highs does not imply value. Men of riches and material wealth are not necessarily wise. America talks a good game, but, when it comes down to proving, it fails to deliver.

Thanks for listening. In the hallowed words of Chris Martenson, "it doesn't have to be this way."

At the Close, Wednesday, July 8, 2026:
Dow: 52,348.39, -576.76 (-1.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,870.65, +51.96 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,482.71, -21.14 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 23,790.61, -226.35 (-0.94%)

Trump Calls Iranians, "Scum," Believes Ceasefire is Over; Oil Jumps; America Led by Criminals Has Poisoned Markets

As long as there are political leaders willing to wage war, commit murder and genocide to achieve their ends, nothing in financial markets is safe. Even gold, the usual bastion of safety in turbulent times, has declined while worldwide militarism is on the rise.

The fragile peace in the Middle East seems to have come to an end. After Iran reportedly struck ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. retaliated, President Trump, in Ankara, Turkey for a NATO summit, said of the Iranians and the ceasefire, "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them [Iran] anymore; they're scum."

Well, calling the people you started a war with (and largely lost) "scum" is about par for the course for President Bone Spurs. The man may not be as delirious as his predecessor, Joe Biden, but he is many times more dangerous to the lives of people worldwide. He's proven to be perhaps the most duplicitous, money-grubbing president in the 250-year history of the United States, and that's saying something. Presidents, over the years, have been some of the more untrustworthy politicians to supposedly "lead" the nation.

Along with Trump's bombast, he's surrounded by scoundrels like son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate buddy, Steve Witkoff, both of whom are unelected and unconfirmed by congress and have no official capacity in the executive branch. These two comprise the president's negotiating team, though VP JD Vance is officially the leader of the delegation working out terms of the MOU with Iran. Vance is a proven turncoat, having gone from "never-Trump" status to Vice President in the course of just a few years. Anybody trusting him to do anything that would benefit the American public needs to re-examine their priorities.

Other members of Trump's cabinet are either syncopates or sociopaths, like Howard Lutnik, famous neighbor of one Jeffrey Epstein, who has benefitted financially in his role as head of the Commerce Department. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, besides being gay, worked hand-in-glove with George Soros in taking down the British pound and is possibly the most disruptive treasury official in history. All of these people are dishonest, ruthless, and wholly unworthy of the positions they currently hold.

Congress, which just seems ot go along with the grift and graft of the day, is worthless. They represent themselves, not the American public which voted them into office.

Go ahead and play in the financial sandbox with Trump holding the biggest shovel, but, be aware that markets can, and will, turn on a dime, with insiders and special interests controlling every trade.

With the recent Mideast activity threatening to spill over into all-out war again, stock futures are down; gold and silver under pressure, and oil ramping higher.

America, for whatever it's worth - and there is much to praise about the country as a whole - is being led by criminals.

American citizens, overwhelmed by the size and scope of the federal government, have no say in anything.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 7, 2026:
Dow: 52,925.15, -130.75 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 25,818.69, -302.51 (-1.16%)
S&P 500: 7,503.85, -33.58 (-0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 24,016.96, -58.14 (-0.24%)

Wall Street Continues to Rally as America First Becomes Entrenched in Rhetoric; Stocks At or Near All-Time Highs with No End in Sight

Apparently, 250 years of American greatness will continue, at least according to the stock market on the first day of trading following the big celebration. All the major indices were up, with the Dow setting a new all-time closing high. The S&P is a little more than one percent of its all-time high (7,609,78, June 2, 2026) while the NASDAQ needs to add two percent to mark a new record.

Wall Street figures on blowing the bubble as hard as possible, to unimaginable levels in the new "Americana" trade.

As far as the Shiller PE (CAPE) is concerned, stocks remain at the second-highest level ever (41.97), dwarfed only by the December 1999 reading of 44.19. That is certainly the target, and it is ultimately achievable because there are no brakes on this runaway train of a stock market.

Returning from the three-day weekend, there is little to suggest that the rally begun upon the ceasefire of the Iran-U.S. conflict (March 30) is anywhere near exhaustion. With the Strait of Hormuz open for business and the MOU between the warring parties still being assembled, the war that was has become a back-page issue. America and Iran both got what they wanted from the conflict. Iran achieved bargaining power while the U.S., despite suffering some catastrophic losses at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and elsewhere, maintained an image of power in the region. How long the game of charades and polite bargaining will continue is anyone's guess.

Where stocks go from here depends on a number of factors, none of them more prominent than the AI buildout, which has run into snags. On the ground, local citizens are protesting the building of large data centers near their communities. state and county officials have been besieged by angry residents fearing a monumental rise in their utility bills, increased pollution, and draining of natural resources, particularly water, which the data centers desperately need for cooling.

There's little doubt that the U.S. needs an overhaul of their electrical grid and other infrastructure like roads, bridges, high-speed internet, and the AI buildout could provide some of the needed upgrade, though not necessarily in places that have the most pressing need. It's a back-handed way of doing what municipalities, states, and the federal government have been ignoring for decades. It would be wise to move forward with infrastructure, as it creates temporary jobs and is very noticeable, fueling the "America, yeah" rhetoric.

Against a backdrop of November midterm elections, the Trump white House needs to project an image of power and strength. So far, they've avoided any walking back in international affairs, which is important as the NATO summit gets underway Tuesday and Wednesday in Ankara, Turkey.

The talk coming out of the summit will likely lean toward continuation of current policies (Russia, bad; Ukraine, good) with a little less focus on American involvement. Europe itself needs to bolster its image, and will do so by making the same threats against Russia as it has for the last four years. The conflict in Ukraine, as much as its become a back-burner issue in the U.S., is still very much front and center in Europe and the leaders in France, Germany, and England need to keep the pressure on Russia.

There's not much chance of change in those policies. Once leaders of countries get an agenda started - good or bad - they are reluctant to walk it back, even if it turns their country to a basket case (England, Germany). The politicians will continue on a war footing for now, which is positive for U.S. stocks overall.

The other issues facing the market are employment and interest rates, both of which seem to be in sweet spots for now. Once Wall Street comes to the realization that the Fed, under Kevin Warsh, is not about to make rash judgement calls and is far from being politicized, the idea that a rate hike is in the cards will vanish like a David Copperfield mummy.

Full speed ahead appears to be the only command Wall Street understands and there are millions of people with passive investments who are in lvoe with that.

At the Close, Monday, July 6, 2026:
Dow: 53,055.91, +155.84 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,121.16, +288.49 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: 7,537.43, +54.19 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 24,075.12, +118.04 (+0.49%)

WEEKEND WRAP: A Quiet Week Ahead as U.S.A. Celebrates 250 Years, 3rd Quarter Commences; May Be a Slow Summer with Lower Gas Prices

Editor's Note: Being that it's a quiet holiday weekend and the immediacy of a medical issue (friend with appendicitis), Money Daily is going to dispatch with most of the usual commentary. We'll pick things up on Tuesday. --FR

The United States has surpassed 250 years of existence. The next 250 we'll leave to future historians.

Stocks

All the major indices ramped higher into the holiday weekend, the Dow posting its fourth straight weekly gain and sixth in the last seven. Friday's Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS had minimal effect, with 57,000 new jobs reported, and prior months revised lower. The Dow and NASDAQ took radically different takes on the employment condition, with the Dow spiking to record highs and the NASDAQ taking another bump lower.

Second quarter earnings are still a week off, with banks and financial companies reporting the week beginning July 13. In the week ahead, just a few early reports will be released. On Wednesday, Helen of Troy (HELE) and Levi-Strauss (LEVI) report. Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Pepsico (PEP), with Friday reserved for Delta Airlines (DAL).

U.S. balance of Trade gets reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Wholesale Inventories for June and Fed Minutes from the June meeting are released. Thursday's report of Existing Home Sales for June leads the housing market. The Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is Friday. A pretty light week overall.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98

Treasury yields reversed course this week on continued speculation that the Federal Reserve would hike the federal funds target rate in an effort to stave off inflation, though there remains scant evidence that the Fed entertains any such plans other the usual "dot plot" of FOMC members, which are only opinions and usually incorrect. Nonetheless, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, crept closer to the Maginot lines at 4.50% and 5.00%, respectively.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed would raise rates at either the July or September meetings moved considerably, with an 80% likelihood that rates would remain at the 3.50-3.75% level in July (7/29) and an even split between 3.50-3.75% and 3.75-4.00% at the September meeting (9/16). Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum widened.

Smart money says the Fed does nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $68.78 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, dropping from last week's closing price of $70.24, as the fragile peace in the Middle East is extended and Americans celebrate 250 years of independence from British rule.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.81 last week and $3.72 this week, as President Trump cajoles and threatens Big Oil over the price of a gallon of unleaded regular. His contention that gas prices should be lower is based upon the recent prices for crude oil, which is back to levels of late February and early March. The national average price at the pump was around $3.15 at the time. The president fails to take into account that the oil companies must deplete gas that cost considerably more before lowering the price to meet the current reality. Gas has been trending lower and should continue to do so, as long as peace in the Middle East is maintained.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but those will need to be rebuilt. The IEA continues to suggest that there will be a glut in 2027 of around four million barrels a day, a condition which, if achieved, will send gas prices well below $3.00.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.33 (-0.06)
Washington: $5.02 (-0.14)
Indiana (lowest): $3.05 (-0.17)
Oklahoma : $3.24 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.36 (-0.06)
Florida: $3.76 (-0.02)
Illinois: $3.96 (-0.15)
Pennsylvania: $3.95 (-0.06)
New York: $4.03 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.69 (-0.05)
Michigan: $4.95 (-0.14)
Texas: $3.27 (+0.03)
Georgia: $3.50 (-0.04)

On Sunday, July 5th, there are six (6) states with average prices above $4.00, with 42 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($4.77), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past six weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.50) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.44 to $3.60. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.05) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $62,699.50
Last week: $60,194.49
2 weeks ago: $64,068.87
6 months ago: $92,624.93
One year ago: $108,114.00
Five years ago: $33,513.73

Bitcoin slumped to a low near $57,000 on July 2nd, the lowest price since September, 2024. The price of an imaginary "coin" rebounded over the weekend, but to levels that are insignificant in the long scheme of things.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.66; last week: 69.12

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30

Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76

Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93

Here's what we said last week, which is still relevant:

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	83.00	72.47	70.00
1 oz silver bar:	64.33	83.45	74.92	75.61
1 oz gold coin:	4250.00	4743.43	4424.58	4405.00
1 oz gold bar:	4200.00	4428.69	4343.56	4355.67

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) held steady, finishing the week at $73.25, for a gian of 21 cents per troy ounce from the June 28 price of $73.04.

WEEKEND WRAP

It's July. Wall Street usually steps back a bit at this time and volumes are generally lower. It appears that the U.S. may go through most of the summer without any major events happening outside the World Cup, Major League Baseball and the tennis U.S. Open. The Fed, under the fresh chairmanship of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to do anything rash. Stocks probably won't turn one way or the other until there's some kind of meaningful change, either in the geo-political sphere or the AI buildout.

The one area which may see movement is in precious metals, which have been surpressed severely since making all-time highs in January. Even a modest rally from current levels could leave gold and silver flat for the year, though still well off the January highs.

At the Close, Friday, July 2, 2026:
Dow: 52,900.07, +594.83 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 25,832.67, -207.36 (-0.80%)
S&P 500: 7,483.24, +0.01 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 23,957.08, +219.90 (+0.93%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1023.96 (+1.97%)
NASDAQ: +535.05 (+2.12%)
S&P 500: +129.22 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: +267.85 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: +189.28 (+0.87%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Continue to Rally; Futures Race Higher on Employment Data (57,000 jobs in June); Happy 250, America!

With the BLS June Non-farm payroll report out at 8:30 am ET, here's how the major averages have fared over the first three days of this shortened week.

As of Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow is up 429 thanks primarily to Alphabet being added to the index on Monday. The NASDAQ is up 742 points (2.93%), and the S&P is ahead by 129 points. The week is bifurcated, with Monday and Tuesday the last two sessions of the second quarter. Wednesday and Thursday are the first two days of the third quarter and markets are closed on Friday.

Wednesday's mid-day reversal was notable. The Dow had been up more than 400 points by noon, but old off all afternoon to end the session lower. The other indices followed a similar pattern, though the NASDAQ spent almost the entire session in the red. There's a cohort of analysts believing that the third quarter might be a bit bumpy, though their theory, as mentioned in Money Daily on Wednesday, fails to consider that second quarter earnings are expected to be very strong. As earnings reports begin to flow to the street next week, one thing to watch for is selling on strong reports. We've seen this kind of action before, indicative of overall momentum exhaustion and profit-taking at high levels.

Should that kind of action become normative in the early sessions led by earnings, it would offer a clue that stocks are hitting unsustainable levels. May happen, but there's also the distinct possibility that stocks will just continue to surge higher on what's been fairly solid economic data and second quarter earnings.

The June employment report from the BLS showed the country created 57,000 net new jobs, below consensus estimates, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The knee-jerk reflex reaction in the futures market was euphoric, the market once again using pretzel logic to goose stocks higher, the thinking being one of poor employment triggering rate cuts at the Fed to stimulate the economy, the exact opposite of what the expert class had been predicting. In a sense, they're both wrong, as the Fed is very likely to do nothing concerning rate adjustments until after September and possibly through the end of the year.

All stock futures were already higher prior to the BLS announcement, but screamed higher on the release. Oddly enough, precious metals were not unceremoniously dumped, but rather, rallied, with gold up nearly $100, above $4,100, and silver peaking over $61.

There are assorted theories and analyses that rely on government data to reach their conclusions about market and economic activity, many of them slanted by varying degrees on data that is either seasonally adjusted or clouded by assumptions built into models. With the new Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, these projections and prognostications - many by some of the leading banking and financial institutions - are likely to draw false conclusions because the Fed is returning to a policy that is less open and less accommodating than those of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, which encouraged front-running and speculation.

The long-standing policy of the Fed through the Greenspan years was more stand-offish and opaque and that's the direction Warsh is moving towards. He's also openly stated that the Fed would seek to move away from reliance on government data in an effort to be better informed on the realities of markets and economics in real terms. Thus, with forecasting policy direction now shredded out of existence, predicting the future of rate movement and general economic activity will be more of what you know rather than who you know. It's a welcome change.

Happy 4th of July, America. 250 years is good enough cause for celebration no matter the economic conditions.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 1, 2026:
Dow: 52,305.24, -13.96 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 26,040.03, -173.69 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: 7,483.23, -16.13 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,737.18, -97.05 (-0.41%)

Stocks Finish on High Note as Second Quarter Closes with Massive Gains; What Lies Ahead May Be a Little More Difficult to Discern

The second quarter closed out on Tuesday, with stocks making some fairly substantial gains, the Dow closing at a record high for the second straight session, the S&P finishing just a few ticks below 7,500, and the NASDAQ gaining more than 1 1/2 percent.

Now that Alphabet Class A Shares (GOOGL) have been added to the Dow Industrials, it's a safe bet that record highs for the 30-stock index will become standard fare. The NASDAQ and S&P have a higher hill to climb in order to regain recent all-time highs. Still, the three major indices put in solid quarters, if only because of the fortuitous timing of President Trump's call for a ceasefire at the end of March, where stocks found a bottom. This made for an easy trade for those with inside information. The massive gains from April through the end of June may be based on suspicious sources.

The Dow was up 15.71% from March 31 to June 30. Over the same time span, the S&P 500 gained 14.87% and the NASDAQ rose 21.41%. Putting those quarterly figures in annualized perspective, the trio would be up anywhere from 60-80%, which would be incredible, especially since stocks are already considered to be wildly overvalued.

Staying with the rigged markets theme, might not July 1 mark the ultimate best time to take profits and skedaddle for the summer? Seems to be a willingness by some parties to angle quarter by quarter as the best means by which to land a whale or two investors. Tuesday's window dressing closes on the majors suggests such a plan may be afoot.

Discontinuing the current rally has many skeptics on watch, though their theory runs up against what may be a propitious period of second quarter earnings reports. There also is the prospect for the resumption of real hostilities with guns and bombs in the gulf region to consider. However, since narrative seems to be all that matters, rallying back to all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P needs to be factored into any trading calculus. As is the usual case, if everybody knew everything that was about to happen, everybody would be rich.

There have been some recent reports of buyer's remorse at the corporate level concerning AI replacements of humans over the past six months or so. A number of high-level managers are suggesting that AI isn't actually doing the job of laid-off, mid-tier employees, the costs savings promised not materializing as suggested. If the disappointment is widespread, it may show up in any number of earnings reports, keeping stocks on a leash through second quarter earnings season. Additionally, there are two FOMC meetings during the third quarter, one on July 28-29 and the later running through September 15 and 16. The impact of the Fed's action or non-action will have profound effects on market sentiment as there's a 66% chance that the FOMC will keep rates at 3.50-3.75% and 33% possibility that they will raise rates to 3.75-4.00% at the July meeting according to CME's FedWatch tool.

While raising the federal funds target rate would have a chilling effect on stocks and bonds, consensus, so far, seems to be in the stand still camp, though September could be of a different mind altogether. Calls for rate hikes on the heels of bad inflation readings through the gulf war scenario are tied to what were higher oil and gas prices, which have now subsided considerably. From a chartist's perspective, the likelihood of a severe stock turndown seems faint, being that the last serious threat to markets was merely three months ago. Middle ground, with stocks gyrating over the quarter might be the correct analysis of what comes next.

With stock futures solidly in the red Wednesday morning, market participants may be waiting for the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, due out at 10:00 am. There may be cause for celebration or remorse, depending on the report. Manufacturing in the U.S. has been steady for months. June's level may be a non-event.

Heading into the session, Dow futures are down 130 points; NASDAQ futures are falling by 245; and, S&P futures are trending lower by about 17 points. As has been the recent trend, futures have been unreliable in predicting the open market's daily moves. They are not any serious indication of anything. Gold and silver continue to languish, up against inflation and rate hike impetus. Thursday's jobs report is on deck, but there isn't likely to be a surprise as the JOLTS number and this morning's ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, a reasonable figure well within consensus expectations.

The answer to the question of whether it's "full speed ahead" for stocks or a pause in the narrative remains a tricky one.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 30, 2026:
Dow: 52,319.20, +136.46 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 26,213.72, +393.57 (+1.52%)
S&P 500: 7,499.36, +58.93 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 23,834.23, +31.53 (+0.13%)

Dow Industrials Add Alphabet to the 30 Stock Roster, Dow Jumps to All-Time High as Speculation Remains a Key Driver

Need a boost? Change your socks!

Or, in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, change your stocks!

The Dow replaced Verizon (VZ) with Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) shares on Monday and the stock added nearly five percent on the day. Conversely, Verizon shares slid by five percent. Dow Jones' sleight-of-hand propelled the Dow Industrials to a record close, while also helping the NASDAQ and S&P regain some of their losses, "some" being the operative word.

Since the start of June peaks, the S&P is down 2.10%, the NASDAQ off by 4.68% as questions concerning the profitability of the AI buildout among big providers like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and others continue to keep tech stocks under wraps, for now.

With just three days left in the holiday-shortened week, the tech threat may give way to employment issues. According to the BLS, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026, similar to the gain of 179,000 in April. While those numbers seem impressive, in the know investors understand that the BLS figures are little more than guesses, their monthly and annual revisions reveal a weaker foundation and an agency hell-bent on keeping up appearances. June non-farm payroll closes out the week prior to the market open on Thursday.

As the fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran continues to hold up, oil flows are beginning to improve, though they are a long way from the millions of barrels that flowed out of the Persian Gulf prior to the recent conflict. The MOU has kept the warring parties at bay despite protests from Israel and American neocons. One can never discount enough Israel's dedication to wiping out their neighbors, and that remains a real issue as America heads towards its 250th anniversary of independence.

As the opening ball approaches, stock futures are flat to slightly lower, gold and silver remain under pressure and WTI crude futures are hovering just above $70/barrel.

The "all's well" narrative espoused by the White House seems to have fewer true believers. Wile stocks are not likely to collapse any time soon, a slow bleed after the Fourth of July may be the path of least resistance, with a great deal of confidence riding on second quarter earnings due out in July and August.

Congress, which doesn't do much of anything for anybody but themselves, will be taking their usual month-long vacation in about five weeks, leaving markets to fend for themselves without input from the government. Deficit spending continues to provide capital everywhere its needed. Drifting about may be the ultimate story for the summer months. After this week, there won't be another short trading week until Labor Day.

Awaiting the jobs report and the beginning of earnings season, stocks may have a hard time justifying gains, though there still seems to be no shortage of fun money for speculative bets.

A mixed bag.

At the close, Monday, June 29, 2026: Dow: 52,182.74, +306.63 (+0.59%) NASDAQ: 25,820.14, +522.53 (+2.07%) S&P 500: 7,440.43, +86.41 (+1.18%) NYSE Composite: 23,802.71, +113.47 (+0.48%)