WEEKEND WRAP: Busy Week Ahead for Earnings, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales as Midterms Loom; Gold, Silver Recovery Underway; Yields Tamed, Though Still High

With early voting already underway, it has become imperative for the incumbent Republicans to maintain the status quo narrative, playing down inflation and high food and gas prices while maintaining a degree of allegiance to President Trump's radical foreign policies.

As the weeks wind down to the midterms, expect various distortions in news coverage, especially concerning the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which appear to be spiraling out of control. Republicans maintain a posture favoring global intervention into any and all markets and international affairs, a deadly combination of monarchial-like power and monetary intrusion. Global affairs being lower on the list of priorities for American voters than food and gas prices, the Trump administration presently is free to pursue whatever policies and processes it prefers. Once elections are over, those may change, depending on, naturally, which party is declared the winner.

In the interim, investors have third quarter earnings to keep them occupied. Major banking institutions kick off the Q3 2026 earnings season next week, with reporting heavily concentrated on Tuesday and Wednesday of the week ahead.

Rolling earnings reports over the next three weeks should provide more than enough cover for the incumbents, with corporate earnings in many sectors expected to be positive. Stocks could very well set forth to new records. There will be plenty of opportunities to chase returns prior to the midterms and probably afterward.

One other aspect to bear in mind is that a good number of investment funds will be closing their books for 2026 at the end of October, likely locking in profits for the year. Demand for stocks may suffer the consequences of higher interest rates (yields) and the upcoming FOMC meeting falls just prior to Election Day with the Fed making its penultimate rate policy decision on October 28.

Keeping all things in perspective, there's a good probability of investment institutions - outside of earnings reactions - to take an wait-and-hold position. As crazy as the world may seem in the current environment, money managers may find reason enough to stand pat for a couple of weeks and see where things lay once the dust settles.

Stocks

Stocks got the usual Friday boost, putting all of the major indices into the positive column for the week with the noable exception of the Dow Transports, which finished lower by more than one percent. The NASDAQ and S&P each finished at record highs on Tuesday, October 6, and ended the week very close to those highs. Expectations for more record closes are high over the next two to three weeks with earnings coming forward hot and heavy.

The week ahead will be dominated by banking and financial institutions with some other major companies spicing up the lineup:

Tuesday, October 13 (before open): JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs(GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Albertson's (ACI), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), United Health Group (UNH)

Wednesday, October 14 (before open): Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), ASML (ASML), Progressive Insurance (PGR)

Thursday, October 15 (before open): U.S. Bancorp (USB), Charles Schwab (SCHW), PNC (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close): Alcoa (AA), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Friday, October 16 (before open): M&T Bank (MTB), Truist Financial (TFC), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Regions Financial (RF), Travelers (TRV)

On the economic front, the market will take account of the NFIB Business Optimism Index and Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, with an important CPI reading out Wednesday prior to the opening bell, the last CPI report before both the FOMC meeting (October 27-28) and Election Day (November 3). Thursday will also be busy, with September PPI in focus, along with weekly unemployment claims, monthly reports from the NY Empire State and Philly Fed, and September Retail Sales. The weekly EIA crude and distillates report is also Thursday.

Friday's releases include Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, plus the Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count, and U.S. Import/Export Prices.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60

Yields dropped slightly from multi-year highs during the week past, though hardly a ringing endorsement for lower rates overall. Long-dated treasuries remain threatened by excessive corporate issuance in the AI/tech space, crowding out buyers and sending prices for treasury notes and bonds lower.

Significantly, yields on bills spiked, with one-month and three-month issues adding nine and six basis points, respectively. Those advances crimped the full spectrum spread back to +147, a 12-bip move lower. 2s-10s were static for the week, moving just one basis point lower.

Concern over high interest rates continues to be a sore spot for the U.S. Treasury. Secretary Scott Bessent's recent parlay into buybacks of government debt hardly moved anybody's core positioning. At best, he kept interest rates from spiking even higher. Under current conditions, which includes high inflation, a lack of international bidders, and stubborn buyers demanding higher yields, there's little the secretary or anybody else can do to curb an ongoing interest rate rise across the entire curve. Inflation remains a priority for the Federal Reserve, though odds of another rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting remain low, with less than 18% believing the Fed will hike rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Election politics also come into play, many believing that Chairman Warsh would dare raise rates right before the midterms.

But, no, the Fed is not politically-motivated. Also, DOGE and tariff rebate checks are in the mail.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9" +44

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147

Oil/Gas

Oil prices continues to trend in a range of $91-93 for WTI crude on the futures market, as the incumbent party attempts to keep a lid on prices despite escalating conditions in the Middle East. How long futures markets can contain oil prices remains a major concern for President Trump and his Republican allies heading into the midterms. So far, so good, with prices holding in what's considered a somewhat reasonable range.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.33 last week and $4.34 this week, holding steady after a price drop the week prior. Lower prices at the pump are a positive for the Republican party. Early voting has already begun in some states while the price of gas remains unacceptably high. The belief by MAGA Republicans that high fuel prices are temporary will be a key consideration in midterm voting patterns.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.39 (+0.01)
Washington: $5.44 (-0.02)
Indiana: $3.92 (+0.18)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.05)
Louisiana: $3.91 0.01)
Mississippi: $3.89 (-0.02)
Florida: $4.11 (+0.07)
Illinois: $4.71 (+0.06)
Pennsylvania: $4.45 (-0.02)
New York: $4.43 (-0.03)
Maryland: $4.24 (+0.03)
Michigan: $4.67 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.78 (lowest) (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.77 (-0.01)

On Sunday, October 11, there are thirty-sex (36) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twelve (12) below the $4 threshold (other than Indiana, all clustered in the Southeast), not including Hawaii ($5.64) and Alaska ($4.95), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 15 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 this week ($3.78-3.95) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.00 to $4.25. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $82,717.91
Last week: $85,242.28
2 weeks ago: $84,540.25
6 months ago: $72,892.87
One year ago: $112,530.80
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto and bitcoin remain bid, though off recent highs. SSDD.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.09; last week: 68.59

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30

Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11

SPOT: (kitco)
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60

Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70

Once China's markets reopened from the Golden Week holiday on Thursday, prices for gold and silver rebounded sharply, confirming that the LBMA and COMEX had been artificially suppressing prices for precious metals on their derivative markets while the main driver and price-maker, China, was absent.

There need be no more obvious proof that price suppression, a tactic of the U.S. government and its open market agents, has continued for many years, even decades. Without the suppression mechanism, it's likely that gold would have returned to its rightful place as a neutral reserve currency many years ago, and the U.S. government forced to either abandon or revalue the U.S. dollar, the latter being the most probably circumstance.

The current alignment of Western nations acting against the best interests of honest money portends continued volatility in precious metals markets. China continues to acquire gold at a record pace along with other non-Western-aligned Asian and African nations. For PM investors in the U.S., U.K. or Europe, the handwriting could not be more obvious. The world is turning to gold as the standard of exchange and store of value for central banks and national interests. This process - of extinguishing a fiat-based reserve currency with one that has stood the test of time for thousands of years - is slow and often frustrating. Recent years, however, have shown that gold's resilience and acceptance is quite strong and growing worldwide.

Silver's condition mirrors that of gold, though at a more nuanced level. It's use as an industrial, medical, and military metal outpaces its role as a monetary one, but, given the recent levels of the gold:silver ratio (GSR) around 70 and slightly below, it's apparent that silver will follow gold's advances and declines in a somewhat orderly fashion and at some points become the value option of choice. History is filled with settlements of the GSR at levels far below those of the current environment, with most falling between 12 and 16 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. A world in which gold and silver are finally properly valued will be one in which individuals have control over their own wealth without being subjected to the whims and mendaciousness of kings, royals, and Keynesian-inspired governments.

While China's Golden Week did not align properly with the Western Monday-Sunday regime, running from Thursday-Wednesday, there was some distortion in reported prices, which at Money Daily are either Fridays or Sundays. Thus, prices do not reflect the severe declines in gold and silver that were experienced in the early part of the week (Monday-Wednesday). One might be well-advised to look back one more week, to 9/25, for a more reasonable expectation of prices over the coming days and weeks. Additionally, once the midterms are over and done, prices may catch a serious bid in whatever aftermath presents itself in the U.S. concerning foreign, fiscal, and monetary policies.

No matter what, demand from central banks for gold and industrial uses for silver remain well anchored. Investment demand remains the missing link to the gold/silver story. Once acceptance of gold and silver becomes essential to institutions and individuals, the prices will rise accordingly. In a more sinister - and correct - sense, the further the U.S. dollar declines in purchasing power, the higher the prices of gold and silver will soar.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	67.00	79.99	73.65	73.84
1 oz silver bar:	66.00	83.87	74.48	74.81
1 oz gold coin:	4189.99	4750.00	4430.79	4408.70
1 oz gold bar:	4225.00	4472.67	4390.18	4387.49

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rebounded sharply this week, rising to $74.20 , a gain of $3.37 per troy ounce from the October 4 price of $70.87.

WEEKEND WRAP

Patience may be the key to a sensible investment strategy until the midterms, which are now just more than three weeks ahead, though early voting is already underway in a handful of states and by the end of the week will be widespread, a benchmark for early voting being 15-20 days prior to election day, putting full-on early voting roughly between October 13 and 18.

Bearing in mind that the politicians and staffs involved in various key races will be keeping tabs on exit polling, there is certainly to be a degree of media meddling and posturing by candidates. Traditional midterm metrics have incumbents (Republicans) losing 15-25 seats in the House and 3-6 sets in the Senate. Should Democrats gain control of both houses, there is likely to be a call for change in the policies of the presidential administration, though a radical shift is unlikely.

Should Democrats prevail, there's a good chance of stocks taking a hit, as most investment managers and big money power brokers prefer a more "conservative" agenda rather than looser policies of tax, borrow, and spend, though, in reality, neither party has shown any propensity for fiscal restraint.

In the end, whichever party ends up in control of the congress, government policy is unlikely to change in a positive, more austere manner. American citizens may be subject to more historical patterns, meaning more and more of the same.

At the Close, Friday, October 9, 2026:
Dow: 51,654.95, +423.31 (+0.83%)
NASDAQ: 27,366.17, +172.83 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,811.54, +46.18 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 23,939.10, +141.50 (+0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: +477.99 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ: +175.31 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: +88.82 (+1.15%)
NYSE Composite: +284.79 (+1.20%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Markets Poised for Upside Friday, though Flat for the Week; Gold, Silver Rebound as China Reopens; Early Midterm Voting Underway

It's all about pattern recognition.

Thursday's market setup was very similar to Wednesday's, with stock futures in the red heading toward the opening bell, with interest rates spiking again, though not so violently as the previous session. Still, investors became unnerved. By 10:00 am ET, the yield on the 10-year note had struck 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.67%, but those high yields - same as Wednesday - gradually began to reverse.

It appeared everything was going according to plan, with dip-buyers stepping in shortly after 11:00 am on the Dow, but this time, the admission by Sam Altman's OpenAI that revenues had fallen short of target, kept the S&P and NASDAQ in the red doldrums. By the close, the Dow and NYSE Composite were positive, but the S&P, and, especially, the NASDAQ had sprung leaks, ending in the red.

As usual, a Trump tweet provided some cover, the president sending a message that he would not attack Iran again before the midterms. It didn't work as well as expected for stocks, but his messaging influenced oil futures enough to send WTI from above $93 to near $90.50. As Friday's tape begins, WTI is holding in a range just below $91/barrel.

Friday's stock futures are on the rise, even as Delta Airlines (DAL) posted a third quarter earnings miss, citing high fuel prices as the key element in the disappointing period.

The least surprising development was the recovery in gold and silver prices as China's markets reopened. Spot gold has bounced back above $4,200 and silver held above $60 overnight.

What will Friday's week-ending session bring?

Stock futures are positive, led by the NASDAQ, naturally, up 225 points an hour prior to the bell.

For the week, the Dow is up a paltry 54 points, the NASDAQ is up a mere three points, and the S&P is ahead by 43 points. Essentially, the major indices are flat, which is about in line with expectations from the investor class. Stocks don't have to steadily advance from here to November 3rd, they only have to not decline very much. After all, the S&P and NASDAQ both posted all-time highs on Tuesday, so staying within a few percentage points of record closings is likely to suit the needs of entrenched Republicans who wish to maintain their slim advantages in the House and Senate.

Wall Street is aligned with the incumbents, fearing that a Democrat takeover of either house of congress might disrupt their plans of market and dollar dominance. They are on shaky ground to say the least, but keeping stocks at nose-bleed levels should appease their voter base enough that they won't notice how much they're spending for gas, or steaks, or, well, just about everything else.

The plan is to keep stock prices high and oil and gas prices in an acceptable range. $6 gas in California doesn't seem to be a concern, since the state is deeply Democrat.

There are a few wild cards in play as the opening bell approaches. Late Thursday, Elon Musk's Starlink agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses, aiming to combine them with its satellite-to-cell services.

The entry of Starlink into cell phone competition send shares of T-Mobile down nearly eight percent 7.7%, while Verizon and AT&T each dropped about six percent.

Hurricane Isaias is approaching the Gulf coast. Oil rigs in the region have been shut down. Landfall for what is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane comes later today. Interest rates can only be held in their current range only so long, but the party in power only as to keep them relatively benign for another three weeks. Early voting is spreading across the nation. By next week, more than half the country will have early ballot access.

Iran and the Middle East continue to be a stubborn thorn in the administration's backside and the growing unease over AI, the burgeoning CAPEX costs, and data center buildout continue to throw shade on chip and tech sectors.

The power brokers and money dealers are spinning more than a handful of plates, but so far haven't let any fall and break. Despite their best efforts at narrative control, polls are showing Democrats taking the majority in the House, though the Senate appears to be safe for the Republicans, which is about the best they can expect. A wholesale turnover of both houses would be devastating to their cause.

At the Close, Thursday, October 8, 2026:
Dow: 51,231.64, +51.77 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 27,193.34, -345.35 (-1.25%)
S&P 500: 7,765.36, -36.41 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 23,797.60, +95.68 (+0.40%)

More Fakery: 10-Year Note Yields Jump Again Overnight; Silver Smacked Lower, Oil Prices Rising; Dip-Buyers Out in Force

Wednesday morning's setup was one in which stock futures foretold of horror, with all of the major indices sporting large losses in futures heading toward the open bell. Fear was surely in the air.

Once the cash market opened and had gotten its footings, the bad news turned into a buying opportunity, as news narratives were softened, and, most importantly, yield on the 10-year note and 30-year bond began to tail off. That was key to the massive dip-buying that took place after 11:00 am ET and continued right through to the close.

The ultimate trigger for the initial fear factor was the 10-year note yield spiking, from 5.27% at the close of trading on Tuesday, then opening at 5.36% at 8:30 am. That rise of nine basis points sent a message to markets and the algos and traders took the bait. The overall intent of the overnight yield spike was likely designed to send gold and silver into the void. Both precious metals experienced severe declines at the same time the 10-year yield was spiking higher. Turns out, Wednesday was the last opportunity for the riggers at the COMEX and LBMA to suppress PMs. China's markets were closed for Golden Week, and they re-open on Thursday.

If any or all of that sounds like so much conspiracy theory, fine, don't buy it. But, it makes perfect sense. All markets are sensationally rigged and have been for years. They are designed to goose gains in stocks, primarily, but also are very much aligned in price suppression of precious metals, i.e., real money, a practice that's gone on for decades, with horrific results. Not only have prices for precious metals skyrocketed over the past 25 years, but inflation, the counterparty to massive fiat money creation by central banks - especially the U.S. Federal Reserve - has exploded recently. At the end of the day, stock market gains are paid for by consumer inflation, or, read in different terms, loss of purchasing power. As financial assets appreciate on the back of nearly limitless paper money creation, the downstream effect goes deep into the pockets of consumers, with higher costs for food, energy, and just about everything else.

The United States and its allies in the fiat regime, which includes all of Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and a handful of other countries which rely on exported inflation from the U.S. trade imbalance and deal primarily in dollars, yen, and euros, are facing an existential death spiral created by the central banks. Global debt has risen to unsustainable levels and governments are walking on eggshells in a joint effort to control the narrative, act as if $40 trillion in accumulated debt by the U.S. is no big deal, and try various methods to either tamp down sentiment or make huge profits on their - now daily - manipulations, or both. Actually, as the past few years of the Trump regime evidence, it's almost always both. Nothing like making billions as you destroy the well--being of billions of ordinary citizens.

By the middle of the day Wednesday, yield on the 10-year note had fallen off to 5.27%, right where it had close on Tuesday, prior to the spike, and stayed at roughly that level for the remainder of the session. Stocks, especially those on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, recovered most of their earlier losses. Gold and silver remained moribund.

As Thursday beckons, the same setup is being staged again. The yield on the 10-year is being quoted at 5.33%, fear of more Iranian attacks on oil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is being ramped up, gold and silver are diving, though more damage is being done to silver than gold, for reasons unknown, but probably because China's markets are reopened and the focus is on the big kahuna, gold. Silver's meteoric rise will come later, next week, next month, but eventually market dynamics will force prices higher. As it is, silver at less than $60/ounce is a joke. In China, the spot price is upwards of $66 and in India, it's closer to $70.

Crude oil is rising this morning, with WTI crude quoted at $92.53 and rising.

No matter what one believes, it's failry evident that anything that occurs between now and the midterm elections on November 3rd is probably fake, controlled, and more noise than signal.

Let's see if Thursday's mockery of open markets is a carbon copy of Wednesday's fiasco. The key will be whether stocks continue to slide after 11:00 am or stop and reverse course as yields come down at the same time. In that circumstance, it's "Buy the Dip, Baby!"

At the Close, Wednesday, October 7, 2026:
Dow: 51,179.87, -341.41 (-0.66%)
NASDAQ: 27,538.69, -61.20 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 7,801.77, -17.16 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,701.92, -219.75 (-0.92%)

S&P, NASDAQ Make Record Highs, But Trouble Is Brewing in Middle East, Gulf of America; Interest Rates Spiking

Easy come, easy go.

Just as the S&P and NASDAQ recorded new all-time highs, stocks appear poised to give back some of those gains as the opening bell approaches Wednesday morning. Stock futures are falling fast as the sun rises over lower Manhattan.

With less than an hour before the opening bell rings, Dow futures are down 450 points, NASDAQ futures have shed 260, and S&P futures are off by 37 points. The accused culprits are Houthis blowing up much of Saudi Arabia's oil production, Iran blasting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the potential for Hurricane Isaias to damage oil rigs and refineries in and around the Gulf of America, and interest rates hitting 20+ year highs.

The Shiller PE closed Tuesday at 41.90, not the highest ever, but close.

As usual, with stocks being battered, gold and silver are being beaten down. At this time, with China's markets closed until Thursday for Golden Week, spot gold is being quoted at $4088, and silver at around $58 per ounce, both three-month lows.

Most of the downside damage occurred just after 8:00 am ET, for no apparent reason.

None of this looks particularly pleasing to the Republicans in congress nor for those expecting a windfall $5000 check from President Trump when his party wins the midterms. Those checks should be arriving about the same time as the DOGE payouts and the tariff dividends.

Risk on! Party off!

At the Close, Tuesday, October 6, 2026:
Dow: 51,521.28, +253.38 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 27,599.89, +122.58 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: 7,818.93, +44.98 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 23,921.67, +133.06 (+0.56%)

It's All Fake: Oil Prices Suppressed Just Like Gold and Silver; NASDAQ Sets Record; S&P About to Bust Upside; Yay! Elections!

“If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”

As midterm elections approach, that quote, most often attributed to the great satirist, Mark Twain (Samuel Clemens) or renouned anarchist Emma Goldman, will be making the rounds on X and Facebook and elsewhere in the weeks ahead. No matter who said it, the inference is unmistakable, sardonic, and cynical, as it probably should be. The political system in the United States, dominated by two parties that often look a lot like each other is about as clean as a pair of muddy boots. Corruption and graft run through the system like wine at a music festival.

As the world turns ever closer to a closed totalitarian system, criticism of the electoral process might someday be viewed as criminal; already it is frowned upon by the established establishment. Quoting a more reliable source, the title of P.J. O'Rourke's 2011 satirical tome, "Don’t Vote It Just Encourages the Bastards" might be a better way to express disdain for the polling process. Whichever way the political winds blow, it seems Americans end up with the same government they previously hated. Not much changes; the landscape stays about the same, only some of the characters are different.

Which brings about the recent quizzical discussion over oil prices and futures markets. As Dr. Chris Martenson explains in the video clip below, the same kind of price suppression action that gold and silver proponents know all too well has recently raised its ugly head in oil futures. As the war/not a war narrative in the Middle East shifts and shimmies day to day, the price of Brent and WTI crude seem to sense an easing of tensions on a regular basis, roughly in line with positive tweets and "truths" by el Honcho Presidente Donaldo Trumpo.

Martenson isn't the only one observing the widespread rigging. The argument against synthetic markets (futures) driving real world prices has been raging for some time, only now, oil market analysts are some of the people sounding the alarm.

The obvious rationale for keeping oil prices down is that elections are on the way, with voting already taking place in some states that allow early balloting, and soon to be a deluge of sketchy picks and predictions.

There's been more than enough talk about irregularities in the voting process, this time coming mostly from the party desperately clinging to small majorities in the House and Senate. Claims of foul play will be widespread in the current cycle. The silve lining is that it will all be over in less than a month. Then, the news coverage can shift to more important matters, like what Taylor Swift was wearing at the latest Chiefs game and which lousy films are going to be nominated for awards.

For those intrepid souls who go about connecting dots, all fakery leads inexorably to the stock market, U.S. funny money, AKA, Federal Reserve Notes, and AI, which, in case anybody has forgotten, stands for Artificial Intelligence. With Tuesday's opening bell about to ring within minutes of this writing, stock futures are once again screaming higher for no reason other than the pervasive understanding that AI and chip stocks are really worth 30 or 40 or 50 times earnings.

It's all part of the electioneering plan: Higher stocks, Lower oil prices, Lower treasury yields. The NASDAQ closed at a record high on Monday. Today, it's likely the S&P's turn to set another record. Play along, or, be left behind, shivering in a cardboard box under some urban freeway.

Eventually, thinking will be banned. Your personal AI-directed, robot assistant will make sure you don't cross the line.

At the Close, Monday, October 5, 2026:
Dow: 51,267.90, +90.94 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 27,477.31, +286.45 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 7,773.95, +51.23 (+0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 23,788.62, +134.30 (+0.57%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Midterms, Early Voting Underway; Gold, Silver Slaughtered as China Takes a Week Off; Bond Yields Remain Uncomfortably High

The week just past was something of a snoozer, other than Friday's lift-off thanks to the weak Non-farm payroll numbers for September.

Showing a gain of just 29,000 jobs over the month and negative revisions to July and August, the report served the interests of the speculative class, who viewed the weak labor market as a clue to the Fed's next action on interest rates, figuring the FOMC would be inclined to keep rates steady at the October 27-28 meeting, which also falls a week before the midterm election. That thesis proved to be good enough to propel stocks higher, interest rates lower, and spirits brighter heading into the weekend.

The biggest event of the weekend won't be the Chiefs-Raiders game, but Sunday's presidential election in Brazil, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, though the polling data is well within te margin of error and South America overall has been leaning right lately, so the chances for conservative Bolsonaro are considered good. If neither candidate polls an outright majority, the two would engage in a final, run-off election October 25. Results of the election may be known before halftime of the late football game, in case anybody is interested.

It's officially silly season, with early voting already open in a handful of states, including Illinois, which allows early voting 40 days before the actual election day. More states will be opening the polls this week and next, with nearly all early voting states accepting ballots by the middle of October, as 15-20 days before election day is pretty much the average.

The President and the press are going to keep the lid on events in the Middle East, or at least try to shield the general public from reality, for the next month. After the midterms and the possible political "changing of the guard," there might be reason to change investing tactics, but, with the Democrats favored to win the House, and thus, split the government, that translates into good news, as no new legislation would be likely for two years. It may pay to be hopeful that the government just staggers along until the next election.

Stocks

The NASDAQ, and, notably, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, were the only major indices to put on gains over the past week. The NASDAQ, up less than 1/2 percent on the week, got a major boost on Friday, the jobs number serving as a catalyst to send tech stocks higher. The calculus for the move on the NASDAQ requires some sleight of hand. Tech and AI-related stocks need to borrow to expand, and keeping interest rates at what might be considered reasonable levels is a big step in the right direction. A weaker labor market keeps the Fed from raising rates too aggressively, at least for the moment.

Gains on the Transports had more to do with wishful thinking over gas and diesel prices, which have eased over the past week. Markets are so transitory these days that stock prices can be affected by simple headlines and make extreme moves in days or weeks. The level of speculation in markets, widely reflected in the tranny average, is enormous and the degree of crowding, dangerous.

The rest of the market is in a funk. The Dow is down roughly six percent from its August 5 high. The S&P has been flattened out over the same time span.

There's still another full week of trading before the banks and airlines begin releasing third quarter earnings reports, though Delta will announce Friday (October 9) before the opening bell.

On te economic front, the market will digest the S&P global PMI release at 9:45 am ET and ISM Service PMI at 10:00 am ET on Monday, so it could be a busy morning for traders. After that, economic data will be a trickle, and likely not very important. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment poll data is out on Friday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63

Friday's jobs number (+29,000) impacted stocks and bonds alike, with the prospect of the Fed keeping interest rates on hold at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting elevated due to perceived weakness in the labor market. Despite prices for long-dated maturities rising and yields falling, the general picture, on a weekly basis, was still unpleasant, with 30-year bond yields rising 14 basis points and 10-year note yields up 11 basis points. While those figures were off the highs earlier in the week, they are still above the comfort level for the government on an ongoing basis. Demand continues to weaken for U.S. debt and there's little anybody can do - and that includes Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh - about the ailing condition of the market.

With the yield on two-year notes barely budging, 2s-10s expanded to +45, up 20 basis points over the past two weeks. Full spectrum continues to test the high end of the range, screaming to +159 reflecting stronger growth, higher inflation, and greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending. Borrowing costs to finance the behemoth U.S. government are blowing out. While that's not a problem for the general economy yet, the bankruptcy of the federal government continues unabated and the issue has gone past a level of seriousness to what most people would define as a crisis.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159

Oil/Gas

Oil prices continues to trend in a range of $91-93 for WTI crude on the futures market, with the Middle East remaining a hot potato, though not as hot as previously, as the U.S. government attempts to keep a lid on prices until the midterm elections.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.45 last week and $4.33 this week, a solid drop in prices just in time for the midterms. Lower prices at the pump are generally considered to be a positive for the Republican party and the timing of various initiatives by President Trump and his gang might be a little off, since early voting has already begun in some states while the price of gas remains unacceptably high, though it's obvious that Trump will be pulling out all stops to get the price lower as more states open for early voting (generally from 7 to 20 days before actual election day).

Looking at individual states, the biggest drops in price occurred in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Florida and Georgia saw prices fall, on average, by 36 cents. In Michigan, the price has been falling for the past two weeks, down another 22 cents this week.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.38 (+0.03)
Washington: $5.46 (-0.06)
Indiana: $3.74 (lowest) (-0.15)
Oklahoma: $3.92 (-0.15)
Louisiana: $3.90 (-0.10)
Mississippi: $3.91 (-0.06)
Florida: $4.04 (-0.36)
Illinois: $4.65 (-0.12)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.06)
New York: $4.46 (+0.01)
Maryland: $4.21 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.45 (-0.22)
Texas: $3.89 (0.00)
Georgia: $3.81 (-0.36)

On Sunday, October 4, there are thirty-sex (36) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twelve (12) below the $4 threshold (other than Indiana, all clustered in the Southeast), not including Hawaii ($5.61) and Alaska ($5.00), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 15 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 this week ($3.81-3.95) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.04 to $4.21. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $85,242.28
Last week: $84,540.25
2 weeks ago: $80,888.60
6 months ago: $67,130.08
One year ago: $123,857.10
Five years ago: $54,963.55

Crypto and bitcoin remain bid, though off recent highs. Not everybody is convinced that bitcoin or any crypto is either money or a good investment, kind of sounding like tulips.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 68.59; last week: 66.64

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10

Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90

Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39

Gold and silver were ravaged by the COMEX and LBMA, as China celebrated National Day (October 1) and Golden Week (Oct. 1-7). Most of China's exchanges - for stocks and commodities, including gold and silver - are closed for the duration of Golden Week, reopening on October 8, leaving pricing of precious metals in the hands of the master manipulators. Naturally, the devious operators took full advantage of China's absence, taking gold and silver markets to the proverbial cleaners.

Expect more downward pressure on PMs until Thursday, October 8, when China's markets re-open. Spot prices in China (and India and elsewhere) are unaffected by the COMEX gambit. For instance, the spot price for silver in China is currently pegged at $69.18 in China and $71.55 in India, presenting a huge opportunity for arbitrage. No doubt, vast amounts of bullion have been leaving American shores, headed to the East for quick profits. In the short term, this leverage is celebrated in the West as cunning and wise, while China, India and other Asian nations are more than happy to trade their fiat dollars for precious metals.

Over the long term, this strategy of suppression works only so long as US$ are acceptable for exchange, a condition that has been slowly eroding. The U.S. treasury market is a prime example of general disdain for the dollar. Bond buyers are demanding higher yields and international buyers have been trimming their holdings of treasuries for years. Holders of precious metals will eventually be rewarded - and they have been recently - but the road to higher precious metals prices is a bumpy one.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	66.11	85.48	72.73	70.43
1 oz silver bar:	66.98	88.57	72.31	68.00
1 oz gold coin:	4266.60	4518.70	4373.47	4364.10
1 oz gold bar:	4311.60	4426.96	4365.47	4369.62

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a massive hit this week, falling to $70.87, a decline of $3.71 per troy ounce from the September 27 price of $74.58.

WEEKEND WRAP

At the Close, Friday, October 2, 2026:
Dow: 51,176.96, +250.40 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 27,190.86, +319.27 (+1.19%)
S&P 500: 7,722.72, +56.27 (+0.73%)
NYSE Composite: 23,654.31, +127.47 (+0.54%)

For the Week:
Dow: -651.66 (-1.26%)
NASDAQ: +122.12 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: -20.69 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: -258.28 (-1.08%)
Dow Transports: +437.53 (+2.24%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

A Dysfunctional Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Poses a Threat to American Citizens; BLS: 29,000 Jobs in September Sends Stock Futures Soaring

Absolutely wonderful news:

"The IRS no longer has the resources to pursue all delinquent filers."

-- Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA)

What may be even better, after Money Daily tried to find out just who this Inspector General is, is that the position is currently vacant, though, since January, 2024, Heather M. Hill is TIGTA's Principal Deputy Inspector General, performing the duties of the Inspector General, following the death of J. Russell George.

According to Jeremy Portnoy, of RealClearInvestigations, Americans underpaid taxes by by an estimated $696 billion in 2022, which is kind of funny and kind of sad, since those taxes were filed in the early months of 2023, which is now more than three years ago. Even the investigation of unpaid taxes by wily American citizens is past due.

Here is the actual report filed by TIGTA [PDF] just in case anyone wants to pore over completely useless numbers and findings.

The trouble with the IRS is that it's hardly functional in its current form. The system is still running on COBOL, a computer language created in 1959. If it wasn't for automatic payroll deductions, the IRS would hardly collect anything at all. Corporate taxes, which account for less than nine percent of all taxes, are wildly reduced by accounting practices devised by the IRS in its voluminous, 75,000 pages of rules, regulations, guidance, and court interpretations.

Perhaps the worst part of the entire IRS structure is that it is supposedly "voluntary", which, in the strict interpretation of the word means individuals don't actually have to submit tax forms or pay income taxes. Good luck trying that approach. Despite there being no actual laws that require American citizens to file tax returns and pay taxes on their income, the Supreme Court has repeatedly supported the agency's spurious position.

About $14 billion is annually spent by the IRS, a huge number, yet they still have trouble processing returns in a timely, efficient manner. Since they are doing such a poor job collecting taxes, maybe President Trump's concept to abolish the agency in favor of tariffs and other taxes isn't so far-fetched. Of course, when Elon Musk and his DOGE team went snooping around the agency, the blowback from Capitol Hill was swift and thunderous. Senators and Reps in the House don't want their golden calf reduced or even restructured. Thus, the government's chief collection agency remains dysfunctional.

While that's good news, it also implies that the federal government, $40 trillion in debt and generally bankrupt, is unable to collect taxes from its sovereign people. That's really not good news. It means chaos, if not already present in the government architecture, is well on its way and that, if it's even possible, the government will become more broke, faster, unable to pay it's debts with money it can't collect.

If IRS agents and upgraded systems with AI are released upon the general population, the effects could be devastating. The agency is known for its heavy-handed tactics and extreme penalties and interest charges. They have the power to seize assets, close businesses, and generally wreak havoc upon their intended victims.

Knowing all of this, Americans better just keep their heads down, do as they're told, file their returns on time and pay the piper. Of course, there are more than 14 million individuals who don't follow that advice. The number is growing, and, surprisingly, some of these non-filers work for the IRS.

Geez, Louise...

As far as that September Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS was concnerned, bummer!

The labor market gained only 29,000 jobs in September.

According to the BLS (excerpts):

Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent since March.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), following an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.

While the BLS itself might desire to pooh-pooh what is a disappointing number, the reality of the situation - a weakening labor market - is a forerunner of a weak economy. As usual, prior months were revised lower.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.

Wall Street popped champagne bottles and stock futures spiked on the news. The immediate reaction is that a number this weak will put the FOMC on hold at their October 27-28 meeting, keeping the federal funds target rate at 3.75-4.00%, and, with that, everybody should be piling further into overpriced stocks.

Yippie!

At the Close, Thursday, October 1, 2026: Dow: 50,926.56, +20.51 (+0.04%) NASDAQ: 26,871.60, +10.53 (+0.04%) S&P 500: 7,666.45, +14.91 (+0.19%) NYSE Composite: 23,526.84, +36.05 (+0.15%)

Markets Continue to Play Patty-Cake with Rising Interest Rates; Inflation, Gas Prices, Iran Will Remain Unresolved Until Midterms

Wednesday didn't prove to be much better for those holding equity positions than the previous two days. Initially, the S&P and NASDAQ posted gains, but, as the day wore on, there was no further upside. At the very end of the session, in literally the last ten minutes, the S&P slipped into the red and the NASDAQ lost the vast majority of the day’s gains. The Dow spent almost the entire session in the red.

The market tried desperately to avoid the elephant in the room: the rapidly-rising interest rate yields on longer-dated treasury securities. By the end of the session, the reality of a 10-year note yield approaching 5.30% and the 30-year already having eclipsed 5.65% could hardly go unnoticed. The dumping of stocks at the close was one of the more unusual events in some time, especially considering that it was the end of the month and te quarter.

As Thursday rolls in, futures are, as usual, trending higher on virtually no news. This particular playbook - goosing futures into the open - seems to have a short shelf life. After a while, everybody begins to see right through it, set down their Zero-Day-to-Expiry options for the day and wait for the selling to begin. Friday might offer some insight with September Non-farm Payrolls announced prior to the open, but probably not.

Stocks continue to be wildly overvalued and the market a carnival led by barkers on TV and in government. All-time highs are close by, but the Dow is actually down 6.34% from its August 5 high. And, it's October.

The main issues for the U.S. and its economy haven't gone away. They're just being maintained as best as possible until the midterms. The fighting and bombings in Ukraine and Russia continue. The Middle East remains a powder keg. Inflation is still at unacceptable levels, housing continues to be completely unaffordable for any reasonable middle class family, and gas and diesel prices are through the roof.

It's a happy day in hell when all that matters is the election of some people whose main purpose in life is to get elected and re-elected and everything else is put on hold.

As the eminent Dr. Chris Martenson has opined at least a hundred times: "It doesn't have to be this way."

At the Close, Wednesday, September 30, 2026:
Dow: 50,906.05, -443.87 (-0.86%)
NASDAQ: 26,861.06, +63.52 (+0.24%)
S&P 500: 7,651.54, -19.30 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 23,490.80, -218.80 (-0.92%)

ADP Reports 90,000 Jobs Added in September; PCE Below Expectations; GDP Grew at 2.2% in Q2 According to BEA's Third Estimate

Stocks spent another session leaning to the downside Tuesday, awaiting something, anything that might light a fire in the belly of the investment community.

They'd have to wait.

The only impactful economic release was the monthly JOLTS report that demonstrated, for the third straight month, that there were fewer job openings than people unemployed.

A slightly brighter picture emerged Wednesday morning when ADP released its National Employment Report for September, showing private employers adding 90,000 jobs during the month.

Hiring accelerated for the first time since May, led by education and health care and leisure and hospitality. Financial activities and professional and business services showed weakness.

Shortly thereafter, the BEA announced its third estimate of GDP for the second quarter.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised). The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The BEA also threw some shade on the otherwise upbeat data, announcing that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $190.8 billion (0.9 percent).

Real PCE increased $92.8 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in August. From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago.

Though these readings were flat, they were not increasing, and were below Wall Street estimates, offering some hope that the FOMC might keep the federal funds target rate at the current 3.75-4.00% at the October meeting. Futures markets were relieved on the news, with all three major indices spiking higher as the opening bell approached.

There's nothing like goosing inflation expectations to a level that ensures the actual data will come in below them to pump up markets. Wall Street and the trained seals in the corporate media are notorious for raising or lowering expectations in order to keep the narrative on a positive thrust. This morning's example is another of that kind.

"Be careful what you wish for" is applicable to the current conditions.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,349.92, -131.59 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ: 26,797.54, -22.84 (-0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,670.84, -12.85 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,709.60, -47.71 (-0.20%)

Stocks Slump to Open Week; Boomers Increasingly Favoring Fixed-Income Over Equities Becomes a Long-Term Concern

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday and remained in negative territory for the entire session as tensions in the Middle East and persistent inflation continued to worry investors. At the same time, higher yields in long-dated treasuries pulled skeptics out of dividend-paying stocks to the perceived safety of fixed income.

The logic is simple. Why hold stocks with three or four percent returns when two-year notes are throwing off a similar amount, risk-free. Stocks can rise or fall in price, which erodes gains, while bonds deliver monthly or quarterly returns without the worry.

Retirees, and the fund managers who handle their money, are moving to the safety of corporate and treasury paper, avoiding the drama. Baby Boomers, who represent the largest pools of investment funds, are sailing away toward Easy Street, now that the regime of low rates is finally dead and buried.

The only problem with this generational shift is that inflation continues to noisily erode purchasing power, though that is not a concern for the elderly armed with significant assets. They have enough continuing income from pensions, Social Security and long-held investments that make rising prices an annoyance rather than a base case concern.

The dynamics of geo-politics, midterms, and data center power grabs don't bother people in their 60s, 70s and 80s as much as it does working-class middle-aged individuals, who are still building retirement nest-eggs and looking for opportunities n stocks. Simplified, it may be assumed that Millennials are driving the speculative side of the market while Boomers are beginning to wind down equity holdings in favor of more and more treasury issuance, a relief to the government, which has been running low on buyers at a time when issuance is high and growing.

If the federal government insists on overspending and running larger and larger deficits, elderly Americans are increasingly more than happy to fund them at higher and higher rates. After all, holdings in treasury notes and bonds are funding some 20-30% of government expenditures, so anybody on Social Security might be said to be self-funding, getting a monthly stipend from the money they've lent to the government, plus a generous return. It's really a win-win for them.

There are a number of caveats to which the government should be paying attention. While there are roughly 10,000 Boomers retiring every day, 14,000 to 15,000 are dying at the same time. That means the government will be paying out less in benefits over time, net of annual COLAs, though, on the other hand side of the coin, their pool of potential investors will be shrinking. The government will also be spending more of the budget on interest on the debt, which, if rates continue to rise, means that spending amount will accelerate.

At some point there's a collision of interests. Maybe, when interest on the debt exceeds Social Security spend, Boomers, who are declining in number anyway, might not see investing with the government as a solid prospect. At that point, the government may run out of willing investors, though Millennials may pick up some of the slack. It's a problem without a solution at this point, but it's still a condition that may not become realized for another five years, when the last of the Baby Boomers (those born in 1964) reach full retirement age, making 2030-2031 appear as a possible inflection point.

In the meantime, stocks will continue their antics, but it is the funding mechanism - treasuries and other fixed income investments - that is calling the shots and sending the real signal. It's something to bear in mind when considering investment horizons.

As the open approaches on Tuesday, stock futures are higher, but only moderately. There are still too many issues in the finance and investment world under consideration to formulate a positive picture.

At the Close, Monday, September 28, 2026:
Dow: 51,481.51, -347.11 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 26,820.38, -248.34 (-0.92%)
S&P 500: 7,683.69, -59.72 (-0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,757.31, -155.28 (-0.65%)

WEEKEND WRAP: NASDAQ at Record Levels; Oil, Gas Remain Pricey; Interest Rates Spike; Gold, Silver Futures in Backwardation

In case any more proof was needed that equity markets remain grossly overvalued, this week's action on the NASDAQ sent home the message, clearly and loudly, closing at new all-time highs on Monday (27,122.09) and Tuesday (27,244.28) before giving a little back as the week progressed.

The Shiller PE ended the week at 41.48, a bit lower that recent highs, but still the second highest ever, behind the measure of 44.19 recorded at the height of the dotcom bubble (December 1999). It bears noting the Shiller Mean: 17.42, and the Median: 16.13, observing that stocks are generally 3X overpriced on a measuring tool that dates back to 1871. Perhaps, as some suggest, the world, and, especially the United States, entered a new epoch at the turn of the century. If true, then stocks are supposed to carry extreme valuations. If not, reversion to the mean might be a painful experience.

It also bears noting that the purchasing power of the dollar has undergone severe decline in the current century, so much that a stock that may have been worth $30 per share in 1990 is now worth $100 in devalued dollars. That would explain much of the upside tendencies to which the markets have grown accustomed. It does not explain, however, why gold has been revalued, in U.S. dollars, from less than $300 in the late 1990s to the current valuation of roughly $4400, a nearly 15-fold increase. That said, buying and holding gold would be the more fruitful investment. In 1996, the S&P 500 was roughly 1000. Today's price above $7,700 is not quite an 8-fold gain.

A NASDAQ price of 2,000 in 1998 returned closer to gold's mark, a roughly 14-fold increase. We should all be rich.

How markets will continue to play out through the midterms and beyond represents only a small snapshot of the longer term. It is likely time to stay the course, no matter one's investment preferences. With dollar depreciation accelerating, holding anything other than cash will probably be tradable for food or energy at some future point.

This comes as a reminder that the best investors are those who choose carefully and do not deter from their chosen paths.

Stocks

As noted, it was a darn good week for the NASDAQ, particularly in Mag7 and semi-related stocks. The AI push continues to fire up markets. Whether AI is eventually a boon or a bane, the money being thrown into it is serious, despite some setbacks, such as Oracle's troubles at a New Mexico build.

While the rise on the NASDAQ appears relentless, the Dow has struggled to keep pace. Year-to-date, the Naz is ahead by 16.46%, with the Dow lagging, up only 7.83%, less than half the gain. Though the NASDAQ rip may be a bit noisy, Dow stocks have suffered because of the rise in long-term interest rates, which are competing with dividend-bearing stocks, typical of the Dow 30 blue chips.

It's a case-in-point of speculation running hotter than investing and it will continue... until something breaks, if allowed to.

Heading into the midterms, the usual games are expected to continue, with back-and-forth with Iran and Ukraine leading the headlines. The Republican party's leader, President Trump, is likely to pull a rabbit out of somewhere for an October surprise that will leave Democrats crying in their non-alcohol beers. The stock market will love it. The press will loathe it. Most people will barely notice, and those that do will understand it for what it is, a cheap trick to garner support.

Thus, at least until November 3rd, expect stocks to continue ramping higher. That's not a prediction. It's simply a judgement call based on current non-realities.

The week ahead, which splits the end of the fiscal year and the 3rd and 4th quarters on Wednesday and Thursday, offers a few tasty tidbits of economic data.

Possibly the most impactful won't appear until Friday, when the BLS releases Non-farm payrolls for September. Prior to that, Tuesday offers the monthly JOLTS data. On Wednesday ADP releases its monthly employment report. The PCE price index and the third estimate of second quarter GDP are also out on Wednesday. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and weekly unemployment claims are out on Thursday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49

Treasuries had one of the most volatile weeks in years this past week, especially the 10-year note and 30-year bond, with yields rising to multi-year highs, though that did not seem to be particularly worrisome to equity investors.

2s-10s expanded to +36, 11 basis points higher than last week's tighter +25. Full spectrum continues at the high end of the range, up to +145. A steepening curve often reflects markets' belief in stronger growth, higher inflation, or greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending.

The economy continues to be galloping right along. Warsh and the Fed made the first move to get that horse back in the bridle, but the bond vigilantes are doing what they do, bidding prices lower and yields higher.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145

Oil/Gas

Conditions in the Middle East continue to erode, with Iran targeting more vessels and the U.S. maintaining its blockade. Some reports are suggesting that more oil is flowing out of the gulf region, with Saudi Arabia picking up most of te slack. The veracity of these reports is questionable, but the price of crude has fallen, which, in the larger scheme of things, doesn't really matter much.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.46 last week and $4.45 this week, remaining near the highest Sunday price in over four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East are off the table, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now hoping that gas and diesel prices moderate over the next five weeks.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.35 (+0.20)
Washington: $5.52 (-0.03)
Indiana: $3.89 (lowest) (-0.14)
Oklahoma: $4.07 (+0.05)
Louisiana: $4.00 (+0.01)
Mississippi: $3.97 (+0.01)
Florida: $4.40 (+0.12)
Illinois: $4.77 (-0.14)
Pennsylvania: $4.53 (-0.04)
New York: $4.45 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.35 (+0.14)
Michigan: $4.67 (-0.25)
Texas: $3.89 (lowest) (-0.05)
Georgia: $4.17 (+0.11)

On Sunday, September 27, there are forty-seven (47) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with only three (3) below the $4 threshold (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi), not including Hawaii ($5.56) and Alaska ($5.05), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 14 weeks, but now, a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging above $4.00 ($3.89-4.17) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.12 to $4.33. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $84,540.25
Last week: $80,888.60
2 weeks ago: $77,245.85
6 months ago: $66,214.66
One year ago: $109,587.90
Five years ago: $47,675.17

Crypto had a solid week to the upside, especially bitcoin, which ramped to its highest level in nine months.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.64; last week: 66.09

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50

Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78

Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28

Gold and silver continued to be under pressure, though both may be setting up bases that would suggest higher prices in the medium term. Conditions continue to suggest allocation of cash toward PMs. Futures prices being higher than spot, suggests that the purposeful suppression of prices in precious metals has exceeded the patience of buyers.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	68.95	92.50	74.88	72.00
1 oz silver bar:	69.95	81.00	75.54	75.91
1 oz gold coin:	4420.71	4663.96	4507.24	4479.42
1 oz gold bar:	4445.71	4597.12	4504.90	4489.73

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground during the week, ending at $74.58, a decline of $1.43 per troy ounce from the September 20 price of $76.01.

WEEKEND WRAP

At the Close, Friday, September 25, 2026:
Dow: 51,828.62, +478.64 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ: 27,068.72, +129.34 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: 7,743.41, +39.28 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: 23,912.59, +96.09 (+0.40%)

For the Week:
Dow: +145.98 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: +546.17 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: +92.91 (+1.21%)
NYSE Composite: -86.17 (-0.36%)
Dow Transports: -506.88 (-2.52%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Plunge Protection Team Worked Hard for Five Minutes on Thursday; They Will Be Back; Possible Iran Deal Pushes Oil Lower, Again

Call it whatever you prefer, but some form of the Plunge Protection Team was in action Thursday, just after noon ET.

The NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P 500, without any news or algo-gripping headlines other than the usual clickbait trope of a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly shot skyward between 12:13 and 12:18 pm ET, the NASDAQ gaining 173 points, the Dow up 276, and the S&P popping 40 points, all in just a five-minute window, ostensibly during one of the slowest trading periods of the day, right at lunchtime.

To those unfamiliar with the Plunge Protection Team (otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, was created in 1988 by President Ronald Reagan following the stock market crash of October 1987, also known as Black Monday, to restore investor confidence and maintain orderly markets. It has been in operation in U.S. markets - and probably in foreign markets as well - ever since.

Over the years, since 1988 is more than a generation ago, the function and makeup of the "Working Group" or "PPT" has probably morphed into something different, more complex, less obvious, and involving different players. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, comes to mind, since he is the self-declared "house" of financial markets, and also the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), which operates as a slush fund to manage FX flows and other internal plumbing of the world's market structures.

The upshot of Thursday's knee-jerk appreciation for stocks is that what used to be regarded as free, open, fair markets are nothing but, and haven't been for a long time. Thursday's very noticeable upswing was the result of naked intervention and the work was done by agents of the federal government and/or Wall Street's big money insiders. The existence of these manipulating entities (there are surely more than one) is both grotesque and immoral. While nobody likes to see stocks lose value, an equal number of people probably don't like being told lies, especially when those lies involve the deliberate destruction of the currency - in the immediate case, the U.S. dollar's purchasing power - via asset hijacking on public exchanges.

Talk to anybody under the age of 35 about money or economics and you're more than likely to come away with a feeling that they don't understand any of it and probably shouldn't be trusted to pay their own rent. Boomers, the fast-fading generation that benefitted most from fiat money and the necessity of asset price inflation, might understand and comprehend a bit more, but, generally, not much.

The lucky ones got their college degrees, bought houses, worked their forty years or so and retired with pretty healthy benefits from 401k plans, defined benefit plans, and, of course, Social Security. They had it good. Better than most, even better than their "Greatest Generation" parents. Some of them still remember 10-cent comic books, 20-cent McDonald's cheeseburgers and 35-cent-a-gallon gasoline. These days, a decent comic book is $4-6, a Mickey D's cheeseburger typically runs north of $3.00, and gas is $4.35 a gallon on a good day.

The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has been consistently and purposely debased since the mid-60s when silver coins were taken out of circulation and exacerbated in 1971 when then-president Richard M. Nixon ended the convertibly of dollars into gold "temporarily", which turned into "permanently" pretty darn quickly.

The last Baby Boomers were born in 1964, making them roughly 62 years old today and eligible for early retirement under Social Security, but, luck being tough for late arrivers, they face a 30% cut from full benefits, which used to be age 65, then 66, and now kick in at age 67.

Baby Boomers were retiring at a rate of 10,000 per day, but, they are dying at about 15,000 a day, producing a net loss of 5,000 per day or 1,825,000 people per year that will no longer be receiving SS benefits, yet the system continues to predict insolvency by the year 2030, which is not that far away.

American politicians of all stripes have squandered the wealth of the country. It's that simple. Instead of investing in better infrastructure and public works that would benefit the general public, they spent it on useless wars, military hardware, and the creation of the largest welfare state ever known. Less than half the country actually works for a living, about 169 million. The rest are either under the age of 18, retired, or on the dole, about 72 million. It's a national disgrace and the blame falls squarely on the public, which allowed it to happen by electing the same crooked politicians year after year, cycle after cycle and listening to the controlled propaganda machine called the mainstream media cheering it all on, all the time.

The U.S. government has been running defictis averaging $2 trillion a year since 2020 and that's unlikely to change. Interest alone on the public debt is now more than $1.4 trillion a year. You pay taxes, the government collects and spends that money, then borrows another $2 trillion every year. That is not a sustainable position no matter how hard you listen to President Trump and his band of horn-blowers telling you everything is just fine and dandy, thank you.

Living standards, educational standards, and just about every other standard in the United States has been falling for decades. You or somebody you know might be able to maintain their standard of living, but you or they are paying more for it because the currency is rapidly being debased. In the early 1970s, the median price of existing home was around $23,000. Today, it's $404,000. A thirty-year mortgage on such a home costs over $2,000 a month, and that's before property taxes, insurance, and utilities and maintenance costs.

Who can afford that? Only people making upwards of $100,000 a year and that's stretching it.

The point being that inflation, the hidden tax Austrian economists have persistently warned about for decades, has eaten away at everything in America. Even though it may not feel like it, it's now down to bare bones, which is why the Plunge Protection Team went in and goosed stocks on Thursday. They had to, because the system cannot withstand even a hint of a correction or significant downturn. Any thought of a recession is out of the question. Outside of the Covid experience of 2020, the U.S. hasn't had a real recession since 2008, which, in terms of economic history, is a long time. Recessions generally occur about every 10 years. They clean out bad investment and create an environment from which the general economy can grow. Nowadays, the U.S. can't afford that because it has overindulged on credit and a true correction in stocks and an accompanying recession would more than likely cause a calamitous crash and politicians taking blame, and we can't have that.

So, expect stocks to not lose value, but for food and gas prices to continue higher for the foreseeable future, meaning well into 2027 and probably beyond. The U.S. is trapped in a vicious debt cycle of its own creation and there is no escape except to continue inflating asset values (stocks), which comes neatly wrapped with price inflation for everything else.

On Thursday, the PPT turned big losses into minor ones. Friday might look like a huge, broad rally. Muppets who sold on Thursday are bag-holders. Wall Street elite made bank.

It bears repeating:

The government needs to keep the game going, the rich are perfectly willing to play along, the middle class has no choice, and the poor get a free ride. - Fearless Rick, Money Daily, 9/22/26

With the opening bell minutes away, Dow futures are up 135, NASDAQ futures are up 113, and S&P futures are ahead by 18 points. The Trump-Xi summit has taken a back seat to negotiations with Iran this morning, with hopes of a deal driving oil lower (WTI, $92/barrel) and equities higher. The elephant in the room continues to be yields on long-dated treasury maturities. Yield on the 10-year note is at 5.18% with the 30-year yielding 5.47%.

At the Close, Thursday, September 24, 2026:
Dow: 51,349.98, -161.61 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 26,939.37, +3.34 (+0.01%)
S&P 500: 7,704.13, -1.90 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,816.49, -31.75 (-0.13%)

Spiking Treasury Yields Send Equity Investors Scrambling for the Exits; Gas, Diesel Prices Harming Republican Midterm Chances; Gold, Silver Under Pressure

Treasury yields took off like bottle rockets on the 4th of July Wednesday, spurred higher by Flash PMI data that came in far ahead of expectations for September.

The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, registering the fastest expansion since July 2021 and an acceleration of growth for a fourth successive month.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI jumped from 53.9 in August to 57.0 in September, according to the flash reading, registering the strongest improvement in business conditions since May 2022.

The acceleration in business activity sent yields spiking higher. By the end of the day, yield on the 10-year note jumped to 5.11% a move of 15 basis points over Tuesday's level. Yield on the 30-year bond advanced 11 basis points, from 5.29% to 5.40%.

Long-dated maturities, from the two-year note to the seven-year all spiked higher by 14 to 16 basis points (0.14 to 0.16%) over the course of the day. With bond prices falling, stocks were equally out of favor as the major indices each took losses, led by the NASDAQ, which shed 1.13% after making new highs on Monday and again on Tuesday.

Exit doors at the NASDAQ and NYSE are wide open Thursday morning, with stock futures tumbling in anticipation of the opening bell. The 30-year bond yield tacked on another four basis points in early trading Thursday, sending the yield to its highest level since 2004. With bond prices reeling, investors are becoming nervous about risky stock holdings. An hour before the open, Dow futuers were off by 185 points, with NASDAQ futures falling 330 and S&P futures off 33.

Crude oil prices have been rising overnight with WTI futures above $94 and Brent futures topping $100 as Iran upped the ante in the ongoing conflict, suggesting an expansion of the war into the Indian Ocean if it is attacked again. The U.S. continues to maintain a military blockade in the region and has a major base at Diego Garcia, some 2400 miles from Iran. Expansion of the war to target U.S. Navy vessels and possibly its most important refueling base is a condition that American leaders have not anticipated. Iran's rhetoric continues to speak defiance, but neither side seems ready to back down or negotiate at this point, even though negotiators were reported to have met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Wednesday.

Continuation of the regional fracas appears to be counter-productive for the Trump administration which risks losing control of the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms. An end to the fighting and opening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease prices for gas at the pump and also for diesel fuel, which has hit record prices as the White House reportedly has scrapped a proposed diesel export ban.

Diesel, used widely in industry, farming, and trucking, has the potential to raise prices on just about everything that needs to be shipped, from food to household and consumer goods. According to AAA, a gallon of diesel currently costs $6.52, a 73% jump from the $3.77 price just before the war began at the end of February.

Meanwhile, gold and silver remain under pressure. Gold fell to a low of $4,244 and silver priced as low as $63.20 per troy ounce overnight.

Between the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, soaring prices for food and fuel, interest rates ripping higher, bubble prices on stocks in general, and policies coming out of the White House that make little to no sense, markets are set up for a near-perfect storm.

How Wall Street and Washington try to manage to talk their way out of this mess will be a wonder to behold. The narrative that President Trump and his allies continue to promote - that America is the "hottest" nation and the economy is just all well and good - appears to be cracking under the weight of reality.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 23, 2026:
Dow: 51,511.59, -352.10 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 26,936.04, -308.24 (-1.13%)
S&P 500: 7,706.03, -58.61 (-0.75%)
NYSE Composite: 23,848.25, -180.82 (-0.75%)