Well, this has been an interesting week.
The United States and Israel have engaged in a military conflict with the nation of Iran, but, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, House Speaker Mike Johnson and majorities of both houses of congress, it's not a war, even though Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth and President Trump call it a war.
Sure looks like a war. The US keeps updating the public through daily briefings on how many targets have been hit, now many people have died, and other statistics and random mentions of destruction.
Of the three participants, only the United States has not been struck by missiles, bombs, or ordnance of any kind. The conflict is mostly between Israel and Iran. So, why doesn't the United States just back off and let those two "go at it?" Because Israel is an ally and we supply them with weapons, money, intelligence and the ability to wage war in their neighborhood. Without U.S. involvement, it wouldn't be a fair fight, so there you have it.
In the U.S., markets are operating normally, if what you call normal are wild daily and intraday swings up and down. For the week, through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is down 1,023 points (-2.09%). NASDAQ is up 80 points, while the S&P is down 48 (-0.70%). Equity markets have yet to consider longer term effects of what's occurring half a world away, though oil futures seem to have caught onto what's happening. WTI futures, since February 27, are up a whopping $22, from $65 to $87/barrel, making sense of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shuttering of the world's largest LNG hub in Oman. The price of gas at the pump has already been affected. On Sunday, March 1, gasbuddy.com had the national average for a gallon of fuel at $2.97. As of Friday morning, it's $3.31. California leads the way at $4.83, which is 52 cents higher than it was just five weeks ago, and it's almost certain to rise even more the longer the turmoil in the Middle East lasts, which, by the way, could be a long time.
President Trump and other "experts" had the conflict with Iran lasting four days to two weeks originally. Once things got underway, the timeline shift to four to six weeks, then four to eight weeks and finally to 100 days or possibly into September. These so-called military and/or financial experts are right about one thing: being wrong.
U.S. January retail sales were off 0.2%, according to the latest report from the Census Bureau, but the bigger news was February's Non-farm Payrolls, broadcast by the BLS Friday morning.
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down.
That news sent U.S. stock futures tumbling. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were down 651 points, NASDAQ futures were lower by 409, and S&P futures were off a whopping 91.50.
A few months ago, a monthly decline of 92,000 jobs owuld have had the rate cut crowd drooling over the prospects of a federal funds rate of 2.50% or lower in months ahead. Something has changed in their tune. Possibly - and this is purely speculative - wars or non-wars, oil prices spiking and slowing retail sales might not be so appealing, despite whatever actions the Federal Reserve's FOMC might deem necessary.
Inflation and recession together usually equal stagflation, the worst of both worlds, at the same time.
What will they think of next?
At the Close, Thursday, March 5, 2026:
Dow: 47,954.74, -784.67 (-1.61%)
NASDAQ: 22,748.99, -58.50 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,830.71, -38.79 (-0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 22,789.55, -296.73 (-1.29%)
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