WEEKEND WRAP: WAR with Iran; Anthropic AI Booted by War Department; Investors Flood into Treasuries, Gold, Silver; Oil About to Break Out

Editor's Note: War doesn't bestow many, if any, benefits. It being mostly about destruction, those who engage in it willingly are seldom people you'd have over for dinner. Because events are changing so quickly under the fog of war, Money Daily decided to mostly refrain from editorializing or providing links, since the stories are likely to be outdated within hours of their publication. Readers are advised, especially now, to perform their own research and due diligence. Best of luck to all.

Two major stories emerged as February came to a close.

On Friday, President Trump pre-empted a deadline imposed by Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, for Anthropic, the AI company that had contracted with the DoW for unclassified and classified operations, to accede to demands that it abandon its safety guardrails, specifically, that Anthropic's technology would not be used to conduct mass surveillance on U.S. citizens, and, that it would not be used to produce fully autonomous weapons systems without human supervision.

Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, chose to take the moral high ground and stick to the company's safety guidelines - which were included in the contract with DoW - risking a $200 million contract with the War Department. Trump interceded an hour before Friday's 5:01 pm ET deadline, via a post on Truth Social, ordering all agencies to cease using Anthropic's products and cancelling all government contracts with the company. For his part, Secretary of War Hegseth declared Anthropic a "supply chain risk."

The effect of Hegseth's knee-jerk response is as yet unknown. Anthropic has extensive ties to businesses large and small around the world and throughout the United States. A complete ban on using the company's products - the most popular being "Claude" - would likely affect thousands of U.S. firms.

Trump's directive is more straightforward. Agencies of the federal government will stop using Anthropic's products as soon as possible. For the War Department, there will be a six-month transition period.

On Saturday, Sam Altman's company, OpenAI, was designated as the replacement of Anthropic. This story is still evolving, as is the other major development, the military assault by the U.S. and Israel on the nation of Iran, which commenced early Saturday morning.

Thus far, the U.S. claimed (and Iran soon afterwards confirmed) that the religious leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was killed in a missile strike on his compound in Tehran. Other leaders were also taken out amid hundreds of U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran retaliated with strikes of its own on U.S. bases and some civilian structures in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, and elsewhere.

The war being less than 48 hours old, it's not possible to draw any conclusions other than it seems to be only just getting started and figures to be an ongoing conflict for at least weeks and probably months, both sides committed to seeing it through according to their goals. For the U.S, and Israel, that is complete destruction of Iran's military and regime change. Iran is fighting for its very survival. This does not appear to be anything that will be resolved in the short term.

Stocks

Taking another blow, the Dow and NASDAQ suffered the worst, though, on a percentage basis, it was little more than a flesh wound. The markets continue to have the uncanny ability to drop one day and rally the next, regardless of geopolitics and AI-related overhang. The S&P was off less than 1/2 percent, just scratching the surface of its bubble condition. For all the ups and downs, the S&P 500 is up 0.45% year-to-date, essentially a sideways market.

Whether that will change in consideration of current events remains a mystery, though it does appear that any upside momentum has been overtaken.

Earnings season continues at a crawl, with retailers in focus for the week ahead.

Monday: (before open) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), ADT (ADT); (after close) Riot Platforms (RIOT), Plug Power (PLUG), Quantum Computing (QUBT), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Tuesday: (before open) Playsafe ((PSFE), Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), AutoZone (AZO), Thor Industries (THO), VIK (Viking Holdings; (after close) Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM), GitLab (GTLB), CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wix (WIX), Dycom Industries (DY); (after close) American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), OKTA (OKTA), STEM (STEM)

Thursday: (before open) Ciena (CIEN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Burlington (BURL), Kroger (KR); (after close) GoPro (GPRO), Petrobras (PBR), Marvell (MRVL), Costco (COST)

Friday: (before open) Embraer (EMBJ), Genesco (GCO), Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)

The week ahead includes some juice from data, though the situation in the Middle East will likely have a larger overall impact on stocks. Briefly, Monday has the February ISM manufacturing PMI and S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI; Wednesday, ADP's February National Employment Report, S&P Global Feb. U.S. Services PMI, Feb. ISM Services PMI, Fed Beige Book. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims are announced prior to the open, U.S. Q$ Productivity, and January Import Price Index are reported. Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report for February will be in focus, plus, January Consumer Credit, Retail Sales (January), and December Business inventories.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/23/2026	3.78	3.71	3.72	3.70	3.67	3.61	3.53
01/30/2026	3.72	3.73	3.75	3.67	3.69	3.61	3.48
02/06/2026	3.72	3.72	3.74	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.45
02/13/2026	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.68	3.70	3.59	3.42
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51
02/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.73	3.67	3.67	3.60	3.48

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/23/2026	3.60	3.67	3.84	4.03	4.24	4.78	4.82
01/30/2026	3.52	3.60	3.79	4.01	4.26	4.82	4.87
02/06/2026	3.50	3.57	3.76	3.98	4.22	4.80	4.85
02/13/2026	3.40	3.43	3.61	3.81	4.04	4.64	4.69
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72
02/27/2026	3.38	3.39	3.51	3.72	3.97	4.57	4.64

The benchmark 10-year note ended the week yielding less than four percent, the first time its breached that level since October 28, 2025 (3.99%). Considering the various threats to stability, the rush into the relative safety of treasuries is not to be taken lightly. Buyers seem perfectly willing to accept smallish returns that may not even equal inflation in an effort to preserve capital. The fixed income market senses fear, and for good reason(s). The general effect is a flat-lining of the entire curve, with rates at a low of 3.38 (2-year notes) and a high of 4.64% (30-year), hardly enough spread to make a profit.

Profit is probably not the main concern for buyers. Despite not even breaking even with inflation, the focus is on keeping money at some kind of reasonable level until global conditions improve or degrade, the latter condition not conducive to making money anywhere at any time.

Spreads remain elevated, with 2s-10s dipping just one basis point from the prior week, to +59 while full spectrum (30 days - 30 years) took a 10 basis point flattening, at +90.

The general trend is not appealing, though it does appear to be leaning closer to a reduction at the short end. Should global conditions remain steadily in poor form or even take a further turn for the worse, the opportunity for the Fed to step in with emergency measures (even more than are already in place) remains a possibility. If Ukraine and Iran continue to produce angst and uncertainty, a cut at the next FOMC meeting (March 17-18) would be likely and the Fed could also signal more to come. The tug-of-war between inflation and recession is keeping the Fed from doing anything dramatic, though that intransigence might prove costly in the long term.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90

Oil/Gas

WTI crude ended the week at $67.29, almost a buck higher than last Friday's $66.31, and likely to jump on Monday, given the closure by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz, a tipping point in the war and to the global economy. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% of the daily flow of crude oil is now effectively cut off, and there are few winners. China, Europe, and the U.S. will suffer from supply imbalances, the winner will be Russia, despite sanctions. Moscow holds a distinct advantage as oil is needed at what may become any price.

It is more likely that the conflict over Iran will last longer than U.S. and Israel desire, putting pressure on the U.S. and Israel to either step up their assault in hopes that Iran will capitulate sooner, rather than later, if at all. Trump and Netanyahu have taken a dangerous gambit, throwing the region into chaos when the rest of the world is already suffering from severe instability.

Expect WTI crude to pop over $70/barrel on Monday, with price increases the longer the conflict remains unresolved.

By early Sunday morning, gas prices were already anticipating price hikes at the pump, with the U.S. national average rising to $2.97.

California rose another three cents over the week, to $4.63 per gallon, the highest in the nation and up 32 cents in just the past four weeks. Washington was up nine cents ($4.36) and is likely to remain a charter member of the $4+ club for the duration of Mideast hostilities. Oregon ($3.89), is up 28 cents in just the past two weeks. After three weeks under $3.00, Arizona is above $3.00 for a fourth straight week, rising 12 cents to $3.34. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma, despite an 11 cent rise, well below any other state, at $2.41, followed by Louisiana ($2.49) and Mississippi ($2.51). The remaining Southeast states, from North Carolina ($2.74) west to New Mexico ($2.72, up 22 cents), are all below $2.79, except Florida ($2.87).

In the Northeast, prices remained steady and consistently close to recent lows. Only Pennsylvania ($3.10) and Vermont ($3.01) were above $3.00. New York held steady at $2.98.

In the midwest region, Illinois gapped 11 cents to $3.03, with Michigan close behind, at $2.98. Kansas was the lowest ($2.54), though higher than last week by eight cents, followed by North Dakota ($2.58), up 12 cents.

Sub-$3.00 gas remained the norm in 40 of the lower 48 states, leaving only California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Illinois, Arizona, Vermont, and Pennsylvania, at $3.00 or above. That was the same number as last week, though it now appears unlikely that gas prices will remain near what are six-year lows for much longer.

Bitcoin

This week: $66,515.72
Last week: $67,651.35
2 weeks ago: $68,948.18
6 months ago: $110,374.90
One year ago: $85,812.15
Five years ago: $48,883.48

Bitcoiners aren't going to get any relief from war of AI any time soon, or anything else for that matter. The problem exists within the crypto sphere entirely, derived from not having a solid use case for any kind of "coinage."

With assets under pressure and a liquidity drain forming, there's no place but down for the entire miasma of "hodlers" and dreamers. Nobody is going to get rich from crypto assets other than criminals exploiting the system or Wall Street sharpies and short-side speculators. While whales, true believers, and Michael Saylor may continue to keep the value of bitcoin and other cryptos from falling straight off a cliff of their own making, the trend is clearly getting redder every second of every day and wars, instability, inflation or recession aren't going to change their luck.

Crypto has seen its best days. What remains will be a catastrophe.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 56.26; last week: 60.66

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/30: $4,907.50
Gold price 2/6: $4,988.60
Gold price 2/13: $5,063.80
Gold price 2/20: $5,108.34
Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40

Silver price 1/30: $85.25
Silver price 2/6: $77.53
Silver price 2/13: $77.27
Silver price 2/20: $84.57
Silver price 2/27: $94.39

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 1/30: $4,886.71
Gold 2/6: $4,964.07
Gold 2/13: $5,041.72
Gold 2/20: $5,130.00
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05

Silver 1/30: $84.63
Silver 2/6: $77.98
Silver 2/13: $77.19
Silver 2/20: $84.57
Silver 2/27: $93.82

Though it's not the best or most moral rationale for holding precious metals, there's nothing like a war to send the prices of gold and silver higher. Add that to the unmistakable inconsistencies in the legacy COMEX/LBMA rigging apparatus and there's ample reason to rejoice at the good fortune of vaulted or safe at home "pet rocks." Unless there's a quick resolution to the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict, expect silver to march well beyond $100 in the coming week and gold to hit new highs over $5,500.

The weekly survey of pries on eBay are already pricing in the costs of war. It's not pretty nor desirable, but, it's a well-known fact that when people are having munitions explode nearby, those outside the blast radii will be reaching for something shiny.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	98.48	112.00	103.71	102.45
1 oz silver bar:	104.99	120.00	110.38	109.26
1 oz gold coin:	5,469.67	5,703.40	5,582.30	5,566.13
1 oz gold bar:	5,425.00	5,599.02	5,515.49	5,530.83

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) leapt higher Saturday into Sunday, to $106.45, a gain of $10.28 cents from the February 22 price of $96.17 per troy ounce.

The weekly eBay price survey continues to reveal that retail dealers and casual buyers and sellers alike have adjusted to severe premiums, which remain in a range of 20-25% and higher over spot for small denominations. This Sunday morning, buyers are pricing in the Mideast conflict to an alarming degree.

WEEKEND WRAP

Well, war it is, then. Whether attacking a nation of more than 90 million people that is armed to the teeth is a good idea for the intellectuals in Washington, D.C. and Tel-Aviv remains to be seen.

For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind: it hath no stalk: the bud shall yield no meal: if so be it yield, the strangers shall swallow it up. -- Hosea 8:7

At the Close, Friday, February 27, 2026:
Dow: 48,977.92, -521.28 (-1.05%)
NASDAQ: 22,668.21, -210.17 (-0.92%)
S&P 500: 6,878.88, -29.98 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 23,494.44, -30.40 (-0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: -648.05 (-1.31%)
NASDAQ: -217.86 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: -30.63 (-0.44%)
NYSE Composite: +41.84 (+0.18%)
Dow Transports: -151.99 (-0.77%)

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