Seven Straight: Dow Misses 20,000 Mark Again; Stocks Slip; Fearless Rick Calls 20,000 In 2023

In what was the Dow's narrowest trading day since 2013, the widely-watched industrial average failed to ramp over the 20,000 mark. The DJIA fell on light volume, as did all other major indices, along with WTI crude, silver, gold and treasury yields.

Financials managed to hold green post-Fed but all other sectors are lower since the rate hike announcement a week ago. Speaking of lower, volume has completely dried up. Bonds got a small bid on the day, pushing yields slightly lower, the benchmark 10-year note was down 0.022, finishing at 2.546.

It was a day of reflecting on what has happened in 2016 and weighing the possibilities of the rally extension beyond the magical 20,000 number, which, in the long and short of it, is wholly psychological and largely meaningless unless one has invested heavily in "DOW 20,000" baseball caps.

This leaves managers with just seven more trading days to square their books for the year, something any smart (read: few, if any) player would have already accomplished prior to heading off for the holidays. Seven is also the number of days that people thought the Dow would breach 20,000. Something about that number...

A betting man would give good odds that the Dow won't break the 20,000 barrier this year and might get an even better shake on the Dow busting through by June of 2017, but it may be a bet worth taking. Failure of markets, especially after a long run-up and a bull market that's extremely overextended, is rather common. The chances of a pullback between now and February seem almost certain, especially beyond the rate hike and the obvious tax incentives to sell come January 3rd, the opening trading day of next year.

Since Money Daily publisher Fearless Rick has already established himself on two accounts lately (the Trump call in Ocotber and the more recent "silver under $16" post a week ago, he's ready to plunge headlong into this debate. Here's the call:

The Dow isn't going to make it to 20,000 this year, and it won't make it by June of next year. In fact, it may not hit 20,000 until 2023. Book it.

Obviously, our intrepid publisher is going out on a limb rather than risking one. He's currently long machinery and undeveloped real estate. Yikes!

At The Close, 12/21/16:
Dow: 19,941.96, -32.66 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 5,471.43, -12.51 (-0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,265.18, -5.58 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 11,142.57, -29.62 (-0.27%)

Dull and Duller but Prepare for Launch to 20,000

If you thought yesterday's market action was about as exciting as ice fishing, then today's minuscule moves must have you itching to watch paint dry. Though volume was moderately better than Monday's, the markets barely budged, though all three major indices managed to post in the positive column.

Here's the exciting news: the Dow jumped a whole 4.57, the NASDAQ erupted 0.89 to the upside and the S&P 500 surged (word of the week) 1.01.

Wow! Don't cash out your 401k just yet.

Investors seem to be somewhat anxious about making any notable moves, even though the market continues to point towards a higher future. And I think that's where it's going, though I'd be remiss to predict just when this move will take place.

Normally, I'm bearish at times of little activity, but the US economy, despite complaints from wage earners and middle managers alike, is about to embark on another hyperbolic swell not seen since... well, 1999.

The 2000 mini-crash is now nearly 7 years in the past. That flop didn't exactly stop people from investing, nor did 9/11, the currency malaise, the inverted bond scare, the housing boom-bust cycle or any other nonsense the Fed or the financial press can dream up.

Truth be told, this market looks very much like the one we had in the early 90s. There's a ton of money itching to be invested and the risks are spread like no other time in our history. Companies populating the NASDAQ, NYSE and S&P 500 include the biggest and best global brands, emerging titans and a bevy of companies spinning off profits quarter after quarter.

The direction of the market is not really in question, but when the market will move is still undecided. This lull is a good indication that many stocks are consolidating and about to make another monster move forward. This quarter will probably be a great time to invest because the big move will be later this year and through 2010.

There's simply too much money with no place to go but into stocks. Whether or not stocks are a safe investment should be a topic for another day. Right now, it's time to enjoy the ride because it's going to be a really good one. Yes, there will be bumps, but the US economy is percolating at a very healthy rate and companies are brimming with cash.

The Dow is headed to 20,000 before the end of 2010. It's going to start slowly, but even a 6-7% increase this year will provide a solid base.