Dow Losing Streak Reaches Seven Days; Walgreens To Replace GE In Dow Index

No analysis needed to spot the recurring pattern of trading prominent on Wednesday. The Dow suffered its seventh straight losing session while the NASDAQ powered to new highs, mostly on the backs of the beloved tech stocks known as the FAANGs.

In the news, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is set to replace General Electric (GE) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective prior to the open of trading on June 26. Walgreens is trading for 64.61, down from its all-time high of 86.55, June of 2015.

General Electric, which has been under pressure since near the end of last year, has lost nearly two thirds of its value in the past eight months. Shares have fallen from 31.60 per share in October, 2016, to the current per share price of 12.96. The company has lost over 80 percent of its value since 2000.

General Electric was an original member of the Dow when it was formed by Charles Dow in 1896 and a continuous member since 1907.

Since Walgreens is trading at five times the value of GE, an adjustment will be made to the Dow divisor, lest the index experience a rapid upside explosion due to the change. This is exactly how the Dow works, replacing weaker companies with stronger ones.

The is the 15th change in the structure of the Dow since 2004. Some of the companies formerly a part of the index but since removed in the 21st century include Eastman Kodak, International Paper, AT&T, AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, General Motors, and Honeywell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average June Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37
6/4/18	24,813.69	+178.48	+397.85
6/5/18	24,799.98	-13.71	+384.14
6/6/18	25,146.39	+346.41	+730.55
6/7/18	25,241.41	+95.02	+825.57
6/8/18	25,316.53	+75.12	+900.69
6/11/18	25,322.31	+5.78	+906.47
6/12/18	25,320.73	-1.58	+904.89
6/13/18	25,201.20	-119.53	+785.36
6/14/18	25,175.31	-25.89	+759.47
6/15/18	25,090.48	-84.83	+674.64
6/18/18	24,987.47	-103.01	+571.63
6/19/18	24,700.21	-287.26	+284.37
6/20/18	24,657.80	-42.41	+241.96

At the Close, Wednesday, June 20, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,657.80, -42.41 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: 7,781.51, +55.93 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: 2,767.32, +4.73 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 12,648.74, +9.76 (+0.08%)

Geithner's Incredible AIG Testimony

Looking back on the financial panic of fall 2008, a House Committee today grilled Treasury Secretary Timothy Giethner on his recollections and his role - as President of the NY Federal Reserve, and, later, as Treasury Secretary - in the bailout of American international Group (AIG).

AIG, which received enormous sums of taxpayer money via TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) has been a lightning rod for all manner of political posturing by some of the very same legislators who passed the bailout bill at the height of the extraordinary events of 2008. The mega-insurer, which had engaged in the risky credit default swaps business and was in danger of default, received assistance of upwards of $180 billion, much of which was funneled back to counter-parties such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and other TARP recipients to make them whole.

Geither's testimony today often included the phrase "working in the public interest" when questioned on his decisions regarding AIG. While in Tim Geithner's mind, he may believe that he works - or worked - in the public interest as NY Fed President or as Secretary of the Treasury, but, in the former, at the very least, he worked to protect the interests of the NY Federal Reserve, a private baking system.

While representatives in the house queried and posed for the cameras with what sounded like tough questions for the Secretary today, Geithner's answers continued in the same vein as all who have gone before him, making the deals by which some of the nation's largest financial firms were recipients of congress' largesse sound like there was no other choice available.

Whether Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the trokia who worked out the various aspects of the TARP and doled out the money, were correct in their assumptions concerning the bailouts - that the entire financial system would collapse - probably will never be known, but at least this much is: the collapse of Goldman Sachs, AIG, Bank of America, Citigroup and other large banks which took inordinate risks with money entrusted to them by shareholders, investors and depositors would have affected the CEOs and top executives of those firms in far greater degree than any single American taxpayer.

Geithner worked for banks, continues to work for banks and will always work in the interest of banks, bankers and friends of bankers, like the very people questioning him now on Capitol Hill. The idea that he, or any Fed president, works for the people, in the "public interest," is laughable and deserves condemnation, though not much in the way of criticism has effused from the collective mouths of the Washington babblers.

That's probably because, when the history books years from now look back on this episode, it will be recorded as one of the great and grandest swindles of all time, and will likely be regarded by future generations (if any happen to exist) as one of the key elements which took down the greatest democracy ever invented. Crooks and criminals generally, when they are caught, are tried, convicted and jailed. That is, unless they are bankers and wall Streeters wearing pin-striped suits and draped gloriously in patriotism and self-importance. Not only did the wall Street banks pull off the greatest heist ever, but they were aided and abetted every step of the way by high officials of the government, from congressmen and senators all the way up to both presidents who served during the time of this swindle, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Instead of the parade of toothless hearings which congress continues to hold, trials for treason should have already been well underway, though it stretches credulity to believe there would be enough innocent parties in our nation's capitol to even impanel a 12-member jury for such an event.

Geithner was at the heart of the swindle, which eventually had its roots at the Fed, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, where lax regulation or the absence of such created toxic financial instruments from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) to Credit Default Swaps (CDS). The truly sad and frightening chapter of this saga is that these very same instruments are still being actively promoted, traded, bought and sold, all with the implicit consent and nodding approval of the Federal Reserve and the federal government.

Apparently, $700 trillion was not enough to cripple the nation irrevocably. The captains of finance are prepared to make matters even worse with another round of theft, obfuscation and sincere lies, and, no doubt, they will, just as sure as they will make sure that they are handsomely rewarded for their work in the "public interest."

Fear Factor: AIG, Cuomo, Obama Kill Rally

After jawboning the economy higher last week with announcements from Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan CEOs that their respective banking enterprises were making money, Tim Geithner's appearance on the Charlie Rose show and Sunday's 60 Minutes interview with Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, the greed and avarice that is still alive and well on Wall Street finally put an end to the madness on Monday.

Amid reports that failed insurance black hole AIG had been using government bailout monies to make payments to foreign and American financial institutions - in the form of credit default swaps payouts and other payments - and also planned to pay out over $1.2 billion in bonuses, first the President, and later, NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo issued stern statements that AIG must come clean and stop paying bonuses with taxpayer money.

Cuomo demanded a list of names of AIG bonus recipients. The AG threatened to issue subpoenas for the names if he was not in receipt of the list by the close of trading (4:00 pm).

President Obama ordered Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to use "every single legal avenue" available to block the bonuses.

While all of this was swirling through the news wires and trading desks, stocks (except for the NASDAQ, which was up only briefly) were well on their way to a 5th straight day of gains. The plan, or so it seemed, was to make outsize profits in call options on a wide variety of stocks and indices. With options expiring on Friday, today and Tuesday, appeared to be prime times to cash in on the recent rally.

Case in point on the options front was the trade in JP Morgan, which was up as high as 25.27 today (up 1.52), but finished with a 0.66 loss, at 23.09. Trading in the March 24 and 25 options was a wild ride. Ditto General Electric, which popped up over 10.00, but closed up just 0.04 at 9.66.

All of that changed shortly before 2:00 pm, when the Dow reached its high of the day at 7392, nearly a 750 point rise in less than five days. From there, it was straight down as Wall Street and savvy investors figured that the jig was up on AIG and the major banking scam that makes Bernie Madoff look like a rank amateur.

As I've said countless times on this blog, AIG is a black hole, with no money to pay off TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS COVERING NEAR-WORTHLESS SECURITIZED DEBT.

Wall Street's unending greed has finally ignited a public backlash to which the politicians are responding. This monumental struggle - between the bandits (Wall St.) and the benefactors (Washington) - is more than likely to get much worse before it gets better, culminating not just in subpoenas, but in trials, convictions and hopefully, jail time for many of the CEOs still running the defaulted banks.

Make no doubt about it, this is the beginning of the end. The final phase of the market meltdown begins today. There has not yet been a final capitulation, but it is sure to come, probably before the end of summer, if not sooner.

By the end of the session, stocks had given up all of their gains, except on the NYSE Composite, which finished marginally higher. As happens so often during bear market rallies, complacent bulls were mauled today by the most ferocious bears the market has ever experienced. Anyone who did not get out today could greet tomorrow's opening with a huge gap down at the open, completely shut out of profits. By Monday of next week - if not sooner - the Dow should almost certainly be trading below 7000 again.

One week of manufactured "happy news" cannot replace months of honestly bad reports. Mostly ignored were today's economic reports: The New York State Empire Manufacturing Index for March fell to its lowest level ever, at -38.2. Capacity utilization continued to decline, from 71.9% in January to 70.9% in February. Industrial production took another hit last month, falling 1.4%.

Dow 7,216.97, -7.01 (0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,404.02, -27.48 (1.92%)
S&P 500 753.89, -2.66 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 4,728.91, +7.91 (0.17%)

Market internals finished in line with the turmoil. Advancing issues outpaced declining ones, by the slightest of margins, 3476-3073. New lows were again subdued in number, but held their edge over new highs, 101-14.

Volume was roughly the same as last week's levels, indicating that the rally may have more gas in the tank, or that the buying of stocks was replaced by selling late in the day.

NYSE Volume 1,898,380,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,159,946,000

Oil finished up just a nickel, at $46.30. The precious metals were both losers, with gold off $8.10, to $922.00 and silver down 33 cents, to $12.89.

Tomorrow morning should be fascinating, with February PPI announced prior to the open - at 8:30 am - along with February figures for New Home Sales and Building Permits.

Stocks Gallop Ahead to Best Gains of 2009

At long last the market responded to extreme oversold conditions and ramped up for the biggest gains of the year.

Dow 6,926.49, +379.44 (5.80%)
Nasdaq 1,358.28, +89.64 (7.07%)
S&P 500 719.60, +43.07 (6.37%)
NYSE Composite 4,499.38, +273.07 (6.46%)

The impetus was provided by Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit's comment that his beleaguered bank had performed well enough to be profitable (minus some odious one-time charges and government money) over the first two months of the year.

It was more than likely nothing more than than a well-timed fabrication, but investors were so starved for any kind of good news, they bought it and ran with it. The resultant gains will probably last for some time, as the market is simply worn out from selling. In fact, there's nothing resembling even the slightest resistance in the charts all the way up to 8000 on the Dow, so this could turn into a lengthy, extended bear market rally.

This move is off fresh multi-year lows, so there's no telling where stocks will go from here, though it was pleasant to see such enthusiasm over such a broad base of stocks.

Advancers absolutely trounced declining issues, 5815-863, about a 7-1 ratio. Still, new lows maintained their long-standing edge over new highs, 354-14, so, obviously, there's more work to be done before anyone starts calling a bottom, though another day or two on the upside will bring on the perma-bulls. Volume was also very strong, another factor that will bring out the bellows for a bottom being in place, which is probably more wishful thinking than actual analysis.

NYSE Volume 2,186,757,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,424,305,000

Commodities, for the most part, were the one area that did not participate in Wall Street's celebration. Oil fell $1.31, to $45.71. Gold dropped $22.10, to $895.90, back under the $900 barrier, and silver sold off in sympathy, losing 40 cents, to close at $12.54. a multi-week low.

To illustrate the absurdity of today's gigantic move forward, Citigroup was up a whopping 38%, gaining 40 cents to $1.42. Noting that, Pandit's baby will have to double and then almost double again in order for many fund investors to actually be able to trade in the stock under their charters. Citi has been under $5/share for nearly two months, and now that the United States owns roughly 36% of the company - about 6 shares for every person in America - the entire population should be beaming that they own such a hot investment.

Of course, I'm being cynical, because Citi is not a very sound bank. They, along with Bank of America, AIG and JP Morgan Chase have all been the recipients of government largesse, and are largely unsound and quite possibly insolvent. That's why there was an urgent need to "talk up" the market. Just about everybody with a high school education is angry at the banks and the government, so a rally was ordered up and they got it, in spades.

Not like this rally wasn't predictable, markets don't go straight down (as they have been) for long without some kind of snap back. The tricky part will be determining when it all falls apart again and the bears take over. It could be 3 months or 3 days.

The best trades in the world are the short term variety, and this is a perfect spot for experienced hands with steel in their veins.

Bargain Hunters and Bottom Fishers

After a rocky start, US stock indices finally put in a day of solid gains, thanks in large part from the seemingly never-ending supply of optimists seeking bargains after stocks plunge to new lows.

By no means is the recession or the drumbeat of downbeat economic news subsiding. In fact, this latest round of selling - pushing to Dow, S&P and NYSE Comp. to 12-year lows - was possibly the most brutal and merciless yet. Even today, the news was decidedly bad. The ADP Employment Report for February showed that another 697,000 private sector jobs were lost in the month of February. In the good-producing sector, it was the 26th consecutive month of US job losses; manufacturing fell for the 36th straight month, according to the firm.

Inside ADP's numbers was an alarming revelation: that most of the losses were from medium and small firms employing less than 500 individuals. The takeaway was that job-chopping by major firms has peaked, but now the recession is spreading down to smaller firms, even to the very mom-and-pop type small businesses that are the backbone of the economy.

For Wall Street, those figures, coupled with an oversold condition in the market, provided enough of a green light to let the bargain hunters loose, boosting stocks in an overdue, broad rally. At 2:00 pm, the Fed released the Beige Book, an anecdotal accounting which showed economic conditions deteriorating across all 12 regions.

That didn't dampen the mood much, until late in the session, when the Dow shed nearly 100 points in the last 20 minutes of trading.

As the Dow goes, it came just short of the new psychological barrier at 7000, paused and then fell away. That late-day downturn is surely cause for concern going forward, though if the 7000 level is breached, there's not much in the way of resistance until the 8000 level, so the opportunity for a short-term rally exists over the next four to six weeks.

Of course, there are still hurdles to overcome, and the chance that another bank may blow up or some other circumstance contribute to the overall malaise is paramount.

Dow 6,875.84, +149.82 (2.23%)
NASDAQ 1,353.74, +32.73 (2.48%)
S&P 500 712.87, +16.54 (2.38%)
NYSE Composite 4,464.89, +130.19 (3.00%)

Twenty-five of thirty Dow components sported gains, but the five which suffered losses revealed quite a bit about the overall tone of trading. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), American Express (AXP), General Electric (GE) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) all have one thing in common. They are either banks or substantially tied to finance in their business operations. JPM took the biggest hit of all, down 8.14%, closing at 19.30, -1.71. The major banks still have unresolved issues and most of them relate back to derivatives and credit default swaps in the black hole of AIG.

Market internals were largely in line with the closing numbers. Advancers clobbered losers for the first time in over a week, 4955-1639. New lows moderated back to 676, though only three (3) stocks reached new highs. Volume remained at the elevated levels of the past week.

NYSE Volume 1,796,873,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,349,450,000

Oil ramped up on news of a surprise drawdown in US supply. Crude futures for April delivery gained $3.73, to $45.38. Gold continued losing, down another $6.90, to $906.70. Gold has lost nearly $100 in just over a week's time. Silver fared better (somebody is obviously taking my advice), gaining 20 cents to $12.92, still bargain territory (under $13 per ounce).

Optimism was abundantly everywhere. All commodity prices were up sharply with the notable exception of gold. This is likely an aberration, as is the stock market move, though there is a technical set-up for a short term bounce.

Stay tuned.

Deflation, Depression Drumbeat

Everybody Limbo! How low can she go?

• On April 28, 1997, the Dow closed at 6783.02


• November 1, 1996, the S&P closed at 703.77


• The NYSE Composite closed at 4378.48 on February 11, 1997


• The NASDAQ is still above its November 20, 2008 close at 1313, so, after that, the next closing low will be May 2, 1997, at 1305.33

Today's closing numbers, seen below, are close to those levels, so the financial news junkies will be saying the stocks fell to their lowest levels since 1997, or the worst in 12 years.

Dow 6,763.29, -299.64 (4.24%)
NASDAQ 1,322.85, -54.99 (3.99%)
S&P 500 700.82, -34.27 (4.66%)
NYSE Composite 4,360.99, -256.04 (5.55%)

These kinds of comparisons serve almost no useful purpose, except to jangle our memories to recall what life was like back then. Here's an idea. Tiger Woods was in his first year as a professional golfer. Since then, Tiger's done well by simply plying his craft and parlaying his popularity into lucrative endorsement deals.

The point is that investing - especially in times like these - is not for everyone, while working hard and seizing the financial opportunities that may present themselves is probably a more fundamentally sound plan. Saving 10% of your income doesn't hurt either.

What is more useful is looking at the relative price/earnings ratios and dividend yields during boom and bust periods. Conventional wisdom dictates that stocks are risky when p/e ratios are above the 12-15 range and good buys when they are 5-10. The bottom comes when these ratios reach a cumulative 5-7. They are currently around 8-10, so the bottom is close at hand, numbers-wise.

As for dividend yields, a 7% compounded return doubles your money in 10 years, but with interest rates running at or close to historic lows, anything over 7% should be viewed with some degree of skepticism. Either the underlying stock is still falling or the dividend may, at some point in the not-so-distant future, be cut.

Either case will dampen your overall return, so stocks which are paying a dividend yield around 3-5% are likely to be good bets. Their price may improve (or not fall much more) and their dividends are likely to remain intact.

While I think it is still too early to call a bottom of any sort or time period, I am on record for calling the bottom at Dow 5267 sometime later this year, probably between August and November. Noting that, I may be completely wrong. We may be only at the beginning of a period of prolonged economic distress, in other words, a Depression-like decline.

Some are calling for the Dow to fall to 4000, others, below that. Remember that during the Great Depression, which lasted anywhere from 8 to 10 years, from 1929 to 1938, stocks lost 90% of their value. The very worst years of the depression, from a day-to-day "life sucks" standpoint, was from 1931 to 1935, when unemployment peaked and remained high and death, disease and rampant poverty was the order of the day.

Back in the 30s, people starved, froze to death, and suffered from a wide assortment of maladies many of which today have been eradicated by modern medicine. Considering the dynamic economy in which we live and the incredible amount of government aid available, it seems unlikely that many today will stave or freeze, though many will die of heat stroke, especially the elderly who try to save on cooling costs by turning their air conditioning off during the summer.

While I continue daily to paint this "doom and gloom" scenario, be reminded that today's calamity was caused by just one more market event - AIG's announced $61 billion loss in the last quarter and the government throwing another $30 billion at the company. Somebody please tell me how any company can lose $61 billion in 3 months time. On one hand, it's ludicrous and without precedent. On the other hand, how much of these "losses" are merely papering over a bottomless pit of credit default swaps and other cross-party derivatives.

AIG was the king of insurance and the leader in CDS, which are essentially insurance against bond defaults. With defaults still at inordinately-high levels (and growing, according to some), AIG doesn't have to funds to cover their own bad paper. AIG is no sideshow to the banking crisis, it is at the heart of the crisis.

Until AIG's problems are solved, or until the government comes up with a better idea than to just continue pumping good money down a sinkhole, nothing will change. Wall Street banks and AIG blew up the world financial system and there needs to be a fundamental shift in how the system works. Investigations of the CEOs and other executives at the tops of the firms are necessary, and they should lead to prosecutions and jail for the perpetrators, many of them household names by now.

The point is that bad news continues, unabated, nearly every day. This week will be no different. Tuesday, auto and truck sales for February; Wednesday, private job loss numbers are released by ADP; Thursday, new unemployment claims; Friday, Labor Department's Non-Farm Payrolls. All of the figures are predicted to be dire, so any hope for a rally needs to be moved back a few weeks, or months, or years.

On the day, one of the most one-sided ever witnessed, declining issues beat advancers by a stunning 9-1 ratio, 6036-675. New lows danced on the graves of new highs, 1479-11. Volume was again very high, as investors scramble to get out of way of the rampaging avalanche of burning paper holdings.

NYSE Volume 1,967,912,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,336,813,000

Not a single Dow component registered a gain. The worst were Citigroup (C) 1.30, -0.20, -20.00%; General Electric (GE) 7.60, -0.91, -10.61%; Alcoa (AA) 5.49, -0.74, -11.88%; General Motors (GM) 2.01, -0.24 -10.67; American Express (AXP) 11.06, -1.00, -8.29; Caterpillar 22.17, -2.44, -9.91% and Bank of America (BAC) 3.63, -0.23, -8.10.

Commodities exhibited all the symptoms of a deflationary spiral. There was no one single commodity higher on the day. From natural gas to coffee to feeder cattle, everything was down. Oil got hammered on persistent demand concerns, down $4.61, to $40.15. The precious metals fared better than most, but still, gold lost $2.50, to $940.00. Silver lost just 2 cents, to $13.07.

Today was one of the most disheartening in a series of such. Nothing, not the government, nor Warren Buffett, nor Barack Obama, nor the Fed can stop the freight train of deflation, wealth destruction and decline.

We might as well accept the facts: We are already in a depression. We are beyond the state of denial. No investment is safe.