With Non-Farm Payrolls Up Next, Dow Closes 100 Points Away From 20,000

Negative forces were at work on Thursday, keeping the Dow Jones Industrial Average below the magic 20,000 mark once again.

Prior to the market open was the ADP jobs report for December, which, in anticipation of Friday's non-farm payroll report, reported that the US added 153,000 jobs in the month, below consensus analyst estimates of roughly 170,000 jobs.

That, in addition to the ongoing turmoil in Chinese yuan was enough to start US markets off on a very tepid tone.

By late morning, the Dow had sunk to what would be the lows of the day, off by 113 points to 19,811, but the plunge was not significant and very short-lived.

Also weighing on stocks was the retail sector as Macy's and Kohl's both reported sluggish holiday sales after the bell on Wednesday. Macy's plans to close 68 stores nationwide and displace over 10,000 workers. Sears chimed in as well, announcing store closures and selling its iconic Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker for $900 million.

Still flirting with the 20,000 level, the Dow stabilized close to the 19,900 level as continued optimism at the prospects of a Trump-inspired stimulus kept spirits somewhat still ebullient, though subdued.

Since mid-December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hanging onto gains and closing just below historic highs, though signs are evident that the rally may not have much stream remaining. Those clinging to gains from the post-election surge may be gradually trimming their positions, as stocks seem to have stalled after Christmas.

What everyone believes but is loath to admit is that stocks are not fairly valued. They are expensive and a significant decline of five to ten percent might be just what's needed to resume the climb to new records. In other words, a short-lived sell-off might present a buying opportunity. On the other hand, market participants are fearful that any decline in equity values could unleash an uneasy and still-hibernating bear.

Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for December should be enough of a catalyst in one way or another. The wait continues...

At the close 1.5.16:
Dow: 19,899.29, -42.87 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 5,487.94, +10.93 (0.20%)
S&P 500: 2,269.00, -1.75 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,244.07, -2.47 (-0.02%)

Many Signs Beginning to Appear That Signal the End of the Bull Run

These times, trying for some, are inscrutable for others.

While a small fraction of the population can see the changes in culture, society and technology clear as day, the majority only gets a grasp of the situation when the changes have taken hold and new trends already developed.

We are currently in a period of great change. Two years from today, one will not recognize America. Other countries will undergo massive upheavals. It is already underway.

Look around. The kinds of people - average, middle class folks - you used to see on a regular basis are gone, replaced by walking zombies on food stamps. Get used to it. The welfare-police state is upon us. Alternately, the people who have seen this coming are preparing to prosper. It will get worse before it improves, but, when the current power structure and domination of mega-corporations ultimately fails, small businesses, which have been under the thumb from competition from larger rivals and government regulations gone wild, will emerge, grow and prosper. It's just a matter of time.

As for today's roller-coaster on Wall Street, the movements were up, down, up, with the Dow closing at the mid-point of its 62-point high of the day and the -142-point lows, but still in the red. The S&P and NASDAQ finished with gains, though small.

Reporting prior to the opening bell, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected earnings, but finished the day lower on poor guidance. A similar scenario played out for insurance giant, Travelers (TRV), and cell carrier, Verizon (VZ).

Following the trading close, IBM reported an earnings beat (6.13 ex-items vs. 5.99 est.), but a huge miss on revenues. Analysts were looking for $28.25 billion and got only $27.70 billion.

Sadly, for Big Blue, they are trading at roughly an 11 P/E multiple. The company is a dinosaur and headed for extinction, though that reality is still a way off.

Another slow-footed beast, Texas Instruments (TXN) reported 0.46 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion. Both of these tech behemoths were trading lower in after-hours, with IBM down nearly three percent. Dead money. It's what's not for dinner.

Among the more obvious signs that change is permanent and the bull market in stocks is coming ever closer to a crashing climax:

• Sears, JC Penny and Target.
• Analyst on CNBC says stocks will fall 10%, then fumbles targets of 16,000 on the Dow and 1800 on the S&P. Basic math: FAIL.
• Chris Christie
• Hillary
• Mohamed El-Erian steps down as Pimco CEO
• Another former Pimco exec, Neel Kashkari announces he is running for governor of California.
• Complaints that the Dow is down because some stocks are priced too high. (At least there's a solution for that.)

More are certain to follow.

DOW 16,414.44, -44.12 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ 4,225.76, +28.18 (+0.67%)
S&P 1,843.80, +5.10 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Note 99.30, +0.18 (+0.18%) Yield: 2.83%
NASDAQ Volume 1.91 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.75 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3649-2079
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 466-36
WTI crude oil: 94.99, +0.62
Gold: 1,241.80, -10.10
Silver: 19.87, -0.434
Corn: 425.00, +1.00

Stocks Finish Flat to Lower; Alcoa, Sears Roil Markets After-Hours

2014 is not starting out the way 2013 ended. Stocks spent most of the day in the red, with only the S&P finishing with a fractional gain of 0.64 points.

Focus was on initial unemployment claims prior to the opening bell, as those seeking unemployment benefits fell 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, but the numbers failed to ignite any fire under stocks. Investors are still largely on the sidelines, awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll report for December from the BLS.

Stocks languished throughout the sluggish session, though after the close a number of important earnings reports generated a good deal of fear.

Alcoa (AA), traditionally the first company to report, said per share earnings for the fourth quarter were below estimates of .06 per share, coming in at .04 after extraordinary items, including $384 million to settle allegations that one of its units bribed members of Bahrain’s royal family and officials at a state-owned company to win business in 2004. The company, outside of arcane and often absurd bookkeeping rules, experienced a massive loss.

The net loss was $2.34 billion, or $2.19 a share, compared with net income of $242 million, or 21 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in a statement. Profit excluding a settlement in a bribery case and other one-time items was 4 cents a share, trailing the 6-cent average of 16 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales declined to $5.59 billion from $5.9 billion.

Shares of the world's largest aluminum manufacturer were down nearly four percent in after-hours trading.

Sears Holdings (SHLD), operators of Sears and K-Mart stores, was equally disappointing, maybe moreso, when it reported same-store sales declines of 7.4% during the quarter ended January 6. Amid the depressing holiday season miss, the company projected losses of between $2.35 and $3.39 for the quarter ending Feb. 1.

Shares of Sears Holdings were down more then 14% after-hours.

If those economic stories weren't enough to turn one's stomach, New Jersey governor and leading 2016 Republican presidential candidate, Chris Chistie, proved today that he is not only an overbearing, obnoxious, obese bully, but a terrible liar and scapegoater, capable of throwing even his highest-ranking administrators under any fast-approaching bus, as well.

DOW 16,444.76, -17.98 (-0.11%)
NASDAQ 4,156.19, -9.42 (-0.23%)
S&P 1,838.13, +0.64 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Note 97.87, +0.57 (+0.59%) Yield: 2.96%
NASDAQ Volume 2.10 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.56 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2878-2807
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 415-42
WTI crude oil: 92.00. -0.33
Gold: 1,229.40, +3.90
Silver: 19.68, +0.144
Corn: 412.00, -5.00

On Cyber Monday, Black Friday Left Wall Street Red-Faced

So, everybody was shopping online today, this being Cyber Monday, the busiest online shopping day of the year, right?

Well, maybe, but there were a lot of people shopping online last week, instead of fighting the mobs at the malls and big box stores; so many, in fact, that Black Friday didn't really live up to the hype. It was kind of a bust, as the voting, via stock trades on Monday, clearly demonstrated.

Stocks took a nosedive at the end of the day, as they've done the past three sessions, led by the two strongest consumer sectors. Consumer discretionary was the loss leader of the day, with names like Aeropostale (ARO, -5.5%), Urban Outfitters (URBN, -3.5%) and Sears (SHLD, -5.2%) leading the way down.

That's not a good sign for the holiday season, which, according to now-skeptical analysts, expect to be the worst since 2009.

Retailers were not completely to blame for Monday's selloff, which was led by the Dow Industrials. Rather, the selling, which accelerated into the close, as has been the recent motif, was probably tied more to profit-taking. After all, stocks have had a stellar run in 2013, with the Dow up 26%, the NASDAQ ahead by nearly 30% and the S&P sporting a 28% rise on the year.

It's been a grand year to buy and hold stocks; one certainly can't blame anyone for partaking of some fat holiday profits, but the overall trend of trading has been puzzling to the perma-bull crowd, with the current bull market closing in on 57 months.

The trend may remain intact for a while longer, though, because there's nearly zero chance of the Federal Reserve announcing any kind of tapering of their bond purchase program at the December meeting of the FOMC (Dec. 17 & 18), risking market displeasure and a downturn which would cast quite a negative pallor on an otherwise outstanding year for speculators, risk-takers and even cautious investors.

That's why it would be unwise to read too much into one day's trading, or even the recent pattern of late-session selling at this juncture.

The likelihood is that profit-taking will be pushed forward into the first few weeks of December, saving the upside for the wise guys who know, above all, that the Fed isn't going to make any substantive end-of-year changes. If anything, investors should stand pat until the 30th, because the Fed will ensure a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year for all.

On the flip side, gold and silver were absolutely smashed lower. Whether the continued selling is part and parcel of the recent distaste for anything not fiat-related or more of an exacerbated "sell the losers" mentality is an open question not soon to be answered.

Dow 16,008.77, -77.64 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ 4,045.26, -14.63 (-0.36%)
S&P 1,800.90, -4.91 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Note 99.58 -0.42 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.61 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.08 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1620-4074
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 316-90
WTI crude oil: 93.82, +1.10
Gold: 1,221.90, -28.50
Silver: 19.29, -0.744
Corn: 424.50, 0.00

It's a Three-Day Weekend. Go Enjoy It, But Take Some Time to Read This

Catchy headline, huh?

If anybody really wants to spend time this holiday weekend wondering when the global financial system is going to finally melt down, this is not the place to look.

Our team of 300 editors (j/k) was let go at noon today for a weekend at the Hamptons, so all we're leaving you with are a few tidbits.

The most overlooked story of the day was how big retailers took it on the chin in the first quarter, most blaming "weather" as the root of their revenue and earnings misses.

Among the losers reporting on Friday were Sears (SHLD, 50.25, -7.92(13.62%)); Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, 50.02 -4.35(8.00%)); Aeropostale (Aro, 14.76 -1.72(10.44%)) and; The GAP (GPS, 40.66 -0.70(1.69%)). While the mainstream tended to overlook these stunning losses - as they do all negative economic stories - consumers are apparently changing their spending habits, more along the lines of frugality and austerity, shunning brands and big-ticket items. Sears, BTW, is a dead entity. The market and the BOD just haven't realized it yet.

The other "tells" from today's disorderly trading were the low volume (nothing new there, move along), the drop in the NYSE Comp, which nobody pays any attention to, except us, since it is only one of the broadest measures of corporate America, the tape-painting which brought the Dow into positive territory and the other exchanges close to unchanged, the ongoing slippage in the A-D line and the compression in the new highs-lows (many fewer new highs the past few days, more new lows).

Make sure to remember what Memorial Day is all about, preserving the memory of those who died defending our values and freedoms. Semper Fidelis.

Dow 15,303.10, +8.60 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 3,459.14, -0.27 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,649.60, -0.91 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 9,427.63, -38.68 (0.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,364,804,375
NYSE Volume 2,753,824,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2894-3506
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 128-37
WTI crude oil: 94.15, -0.10
Gold: 1,386.60, -5.20
Silver: 22.50, -0.012

Nothing Happening on Wall Street as Holidays Wind Down; Sears First Christmas Casualty

The three-day Christamas holiday was a welcome break, but, for the traders, bankers, swindlers and everybody who isn't a teacher or member of the US congress, Tuesday was back-to-work day.

Not that it mattered much on Wall Street. On what looks - at first glance - to be the lowest-volume full session trading day of the year, stocks were essentially flat, trading in a tight range which had the Dow down as much as 24 points and up only about 34 points.

So, advice for this week is to watch as much football as possible, don't eat too many leftovers and forget the rigged, stupid markets. If today's trading is to serve as any indication, they aren't going anywhere until January.

One noteworthy item in today's news is worth mentioning, however, that being the imminent demise of one of America's iconic store brands, Sears Holdings (SHLD), the parent company for over 4,000 US and Canadian Sears and K-Mart stores, announced this morning that it would be closing 100-120 stores due to poor performance during the holdiays season.

This is nothing new for Sears/K-Mart, but if they eventually close only 100-120 stores, that would be something of a surprise. By this time next year, we could all be reminiscing over how the Sears bankruptcy (again) and the closings of 2000 stores was one of the top stories of 2012. Their credit lines are tight and, if there's any hint of a slowdown in the first half of 2012, they could be pulled or frozen, leaving the company very thin indeed.

Shares of Sears Holding were hammered without mercy, the stock losing 27% on the day (33.38, -12.47). SHLD traded as high as 82 and change near the end of October. Obviously, this was something some people knew a bit about.

Yep, the people running Sears and K-Mart into the ground (Target, Macy's, Wal-Mart, among others) is just what the US economy needs right about now: another wave of retail layoffs.

Also making headlines and jacking up the price of oil back over $100 today was more sabre-rattling from Iran, which has been conducting military exercises around the Strait of Hormuz since Christmas Eve, and today said that they would halt the flow of oil if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports because of its nuclear ambitions. Well, we all know what europe and the US thinks of that. Get ready for $5.00 per gallon gas if the morons in Washington and Brussels continue on their failed policy path. Presidential candidate Ron Paul says that US policies are what makes people around the world hate America. He has a very valid point and should be the Republican nominee on his anti-war/foreign policy stance alone.

January is already setting up to be a real loser for stocks. Start shorting selected retailers (GAP comes to mind). The Christmas season is winding down and there's nothing on the horizon to make people want to shop more. At least the weather hasn't been horrible, which is great for humans, but bad for companies which sell coats, hats and winter wear, as well as being brutal on ski resorts.

Al Gore? Paging the promoter of global warming. 2012 could be your best year yet.

Dow 12,291.35, -2.65 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,625.20, +6.56 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,265.43, +0.10 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 7,508.33, -10.33 (0.14%)
NASDAQ Volume 942,962,875
NYSE Volume 2,034,548,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2829-2797
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 272-78
WTI crude oil: 101.34, +1.66
Gold: 1,595.50, -10.50
Silver: 28.74, -0.34