The Chairman and His Golden Stick

Stocks took the path of least resistance on a lazy Wednesday afternoon, rising gently most of the day as investors, traders and analysts await the all-important speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole confab on Friday.

Last year, Jackson Hole was the scene for the chairman's announcement of QE2, and many in the financial community are expecting a repeat performance, though considering how the markets have behaved this week - gaining in a somewhat orderly fashion - those who believe Bernanke will embark on further money printing may, in fact, be disappointed.

Since QE2 didn't work very well and created a rash of inflation in many commodities, and while most banks have pretty much stabilized their balance sheets over the past two-and-a-half years, there may not be a need for further stimulus. Besides, QE1, 2, and all the rest of the Fed-inspired fixes didn't put Americans back to work, nor solve the housing decline.

So, this little ramp up on the prospects of more easy money (isn't money easy enough already, with the 10-year note below 2.5%?) may be a serious head fake.

Dow 11,320.71, +143.95 (1.29%)
NASDAQ 2,467.69, +21.63 (0.88%)
S&P 500 1,177.60, +15.25 (1.31%)
NYSE Composite 7,273.13, +63.54 (0.88%)

Advancing issues smothered decliners, 4272-2269. There were 7 new highs and 54 new lows on the NASDAQ, and 16 new highs with 31 new lows on the NYSE, making the combined total 23 new highs and 85 new lows, still a slightly negative bias. Volume was lame, back to mid-summer levels.

NASDAQ Volume 1,859,268,750.00
NYSE Volume 5,275,260,000

WTI crude oil dropped 28 cents, to $85.16.

The only major development of the day was the wipe-out in the price of precious metals, another signal that Bernanke may not be plotting the further destruction of the dollar with more quantitative easing.

Gold was pounded down with incredible speed, losing $67.90, to $1761.30. Silver got whacked as well, dropping $2.10, to $39.70. Margin hikes and the departure of hot money (profit-taking) caused the steep sell-off.

One commentator put it into perspective, saying, "gold should go back to being a store of value, instead of a risk asset played for quick profit."

Following yesterday's late afternoon exchange over the future prospects of the Bank of America, I actually laid out a strategy on a message thread over at another financial blog. Here, in all it's simple glory, is my strategy for the next six to eight weeks:

While not exactly ludicrous, a JPM takeover of BAC is a long shot. I would be more inclined to see a Latin American or Far East involvement in a forced sale, liquidation or major buyout. Gotta figure that there's real money out there in less-developed nations who might see a move into BAC as a nice grab, maybe even China, as a hedge against their ugly UST position.

Since the rumor mill is so strong and the denials even more pronounced than ever, it looks like a matter of less than a month we'll see BAC taken out. It's been in the plans for a long time. Everybody from Bernanke on down knew CW was crap, Merrill was another boatload of shit and they'd throw money into it until it no longer made economic sense.

That said, look for major volatility (the VIX is still around 40 last I checked) beginning with Bernanke's non-eventful Jackson Hole speech and continuing through October.

The timeline goes something like:

Friday, Aug. 26 - Bernanke offers no QE, markets sell off, Dow down 300.

Monday, Aug. 29 - More fear, but some stability into end of day.

Friday. Sept. 2 - With a three-day weekend ahead and another poor jobs report behind (range: -25K - +35K NFP) nobody wants to hold, sell off, Dow -200-400 points.

After that it just gets worse as BAC is destroyed, Europe goes through another round of crisis, sending markets lower.

My personal positions haven't changed in four years. I'm out of everything except cash, silver and tools of trades. However, I am strongly considering a short market position, my favorite trade being the DIA, which tracks the Dow.

I see Dow 10,200 by October 5 at the latest, confirming a bear market. So, I'm seriously considering putting on some OCT DIA 102 and/or 98 puts before Friday. May even consider SPY puts on more volatility.

I seldom make calls, but this one is lining up nicely for late summer - early fall carnage.

QE2 Ends in No-Resistance Window Dressing Rally

Stocks made outsize gains for the fourth consecutive session; with the end of QE2 marking the end to more than $600 billion in monetary stimulus, traders, fittingly, went on a buying spree on the final day of the second quarter, whipping up stocks to sell to anybody willing to buy somewhere down the road.

The finality to the Fed's second attempt to re-invigorate the US economy has had some dubious effects, such as pushing crude oil and other commodities - with the notable exception of the precious metals - to nose-bleed levels, spiking interest rates (the 10-year is up more than 40 basis points in just the past three days) and generally applying relief to the banks, who have parked excess reserves at the Fed, without having done a thing to improve the horrific states of the housing and jobs markets. The US dollar is also down substantially against other currencies.

When the history books are written, QE1 and QE2 will be seen from the prism of a new present, and the look back will reveal whether or not the stimulus help or hastened the end of the fiat money era. For now, it continues to be an exercise in futility to bet against the Fed. Shorts have been burned repeatedly, as the flavor of fresh, daily money proved too difficult to resist for speculators.

With it over, the markets will have to go it alone, without the assistance or accommodation of the Federal Reserve, though it should be noted that the Fed stands ready to print more dollars and pump the banks further with liquidity at extraordinarily low rates. On top of that, the federal fund rate remains at 0.25-0.00%, an historical low, both of level and time. The rates have been down at those levels for nearly three years.

With half a year in the books, the major indices sport marginal gains for the year, bolstered by the past four days of hope and reckless buying. The markets even ignored another in a series of poor reports from the BLS on initial unemployment claims, which again came in higher than the rosy expectations, at 428,000, a drop of one thousand from the previous week, which supposedly was reason enough to cheer.

With one trading session remaining before the 4th of July holiday, not much is expected on Friday, as most of the big players will already be at their beach homes in the Hamptons or aboard their yachts. Yes, it is good to be rich.

Dow 12,414.34, +152.92 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 2,773.52, +33.03 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,320.64, +13.23 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,319.10, +90.60 (1.10%)

Advancers led decliners, 4774-1827. NASDAQ new highs: 103; new lows: 35. NYSE new highs: 112; new lows: 12. Combined, 215 new highs, 47 new lows. Volume was consistent with Wednesday's flow rate, nothing surprising there.

NASDAQ Volume 1,837,387,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,199,619,000

Crude continued to rise, gaining 65 cents, to $95.42. Expect to be gouged for gas no matter where you live in America this weekend. Though the price of oil has fallen over the past month, it has surged in the past week.

Gold dropped $11.90, to 1499.90, while silver also took it on the chin, losing 20 cents, to $34.68.

It should be clear to everyone by now that fighting the Fed is a losing proposition, and, with the markets front-loaded for the primary dealers, there's no margin for error for the individual investor. For the present, it's up, up and away for stocks. Let's see how long it lasts.

Correlation Trade: Dollar Up, Stocks Down

After a roller coaster type of week, the major indices and commodities ended fairly flat, but that's how the skimmers of Wall Street make their dough: bidding prices up and selling out underneath momentum buyers. This is a fun game for them, not so nice for individual investors, but eventually all the trades will go in one direction and it won't be good for anyone except committed short sellers.

Stocks really got off to a piddling start, but accelerated mid-day, with the Dow down as much as 150 points. While the Dow rallied into the close a bit, the NASDAQ stayed down at finished at its low point of the session.

April CPI was a non-event, coming in at expectations of 0.4% gain for April. Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed a small rise, to 72.4, from 69.8 in March. Despite the steep drops on the averages, it was, all tolled, a pretty dull session. The major trade consisted of shedding stocks (risk) as the dollar advanced, closing at 75.793, up 0.60 as measured by the Dollar Index. It's become the most reliable correlation trade: dollar up, stocks down.

Dow 12,595.75, -100.17 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,828.47, -34.57 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,337.77, -10.88 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 8,371.67, -84.51 (1.00%)

Declining issues roared past advancers, 4790-1789. On the NASDAQ, the gap tightened with 97 new highs and 51 new lows. A similar situation prevailed on the NYSE with 182 new highs topping 22 new lows. Volume was back in the doldrums, signaling the beginning of the summer season, with traders taking off early and heading for the hills, the Hamptons, or Hades.

NASDAQ Volume 1,885,009,375
NYSE Volume 3,921,132,750

Commodities put in an equally lackluster performance, though most were trending lower through much of the day. WTI crude oil on the NYMEX, down most of the session, caught a bid late in the day, finishing up 68 cents, at $99.65. Gold was swamped today, losing $13.10, to $1493.80, while silver managed to eek out a small, 64 cent gain, at $35.26.

There was a lot of posturing and positioning, but no real commitment on the buy side. Sellers won the day and the week as we inch ever closer to the end of QE2.

Finally, financial stocks took the brunt of the selling, with Bank of America (BAC) down 27 cents, to 11.93, Citigroup (C) shedding 89 cents, to $41.53 despite declaring a .01 annual dividend. Apparently, investors were not impressed. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) lost 94 cents, to $43.15 and Goldman Sachs (GS) dipping 1.29 to 141.46.

Continued pressure on the banking sector is symptomatic of the sluggish economy and may portend another round of trouble for the mega-banks. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

Investor Pain Spreading Rapidly

Ireland's continuing crisis, more trouble ahead in the Eurozone, a skirmish on the Korean border and general unease led to the stock markets finally breaking in a definitive way to the downside.

Unlike yesterday's miracle, out-of-the-blue rally, there was no such respite or savior for stocks today as the realization that while many businesses are doing well, the general global economy continues to display weakness in slack demand, collapsing governments and seas of debt.

Dow 11,036.37, -142.21 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,494.95, -37.07 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,180.73, -17.11 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 7,470.77, -139.53 (1.83%)

Declining issues crushed advancers, 4960-1560, though it was much worse through much of the session. Combined NYSE and NASDAQ new highs were 92, edged by 93 new lows. Volume was a little better than previous sessions, though that's not necessarily good news as investors were selling en masse.

NASDAQ Volume 1,902,546,250
NYSE Volume 4,711,580,500

Oil closed down 49 cents, at $81.25. Gold surged $19.80, to $1,377.60 and silver added 11 cents, at $27.57.

The Fed released minutes of their most recent meeting (November 2-3), which revealed that there was a sizable split between factions for and against a second round of qualitative easing. It would appear that Chairman Ben Barnanke does not have the support he might desire in his mad dash to destroy the US currency.

Seven days into QE2, the markets have gone straight backwards and interest rates on 5-and-10-year Treasury bonds have spiked, though they have leveled off over the past few days. It's evident to anyone with half a brain that the US economy and the banking sector, in particular, are still suffering from the strains of near-collapse and the methods employed to contain the damage, which, to date, haven't worked.

If Ban Bernanke is hell-bent on throwing away $700-800 billion dollars, the taxpayers should not be on the hook for it, but try telling that to our do-nothing president, largely absent and presumably on mood-altering drugs Congress, insipid Treasury Secretary and invisible Attorney General.

They're not listening, so you should not be paying. Period.

POMO + QE2 = Stocks to the Moon, Silver Soaring

One of the side effects of Ben Bernanke's $800 billion gambit - and there are many - is to send stocks directly upward, while also giving silver and gold somewhat of a boost.

A day after the announcement of $600 billion in QE2, plus another $150-200 billion more in re-allocated MBS, the Fed hit the trifecta with a 4$.5 billion POMO today and sent stocks to the their best levels since the crash of 2008.

Yes, siree! We're back on easy street thanks to Uncle Benji debasing the currency. Now all you people worried about your pension funds and 401Ks can rest easy, Uncle Ben's got ya covered.

Another side affect of QE is runaway inflation, but let's not talk about that now. Let's talk about that when gas is $4.25 a gallon, because that's where this is evidently headed. And word has it that if this round of stimulus via magic money creation isn't enough, don't worry, Ben can just conjure up some more. Isn't capitalism nice, easy, fun?

Oh, and you people who have saved diligently and are now in fixed income securities, bonds, and money markets, well, you're screwed. You'll still have money; it just won't be worth much, and, as an added bonus, it will buy even less in years ahead. Happy Retirement!

To the uninitiated, typical, dumb-ass American, they'll just see that the Dow was up AGAIN! and their stocks are doing well, so all is good in America. We've got a whole slew of newly-minted Republicans in the House of Representatives all set to slash taxes (for corporations), cut spending (on social programs) and usher in a new era of prosperity for the good old USA.

The problem with this scenario is that it's just all bunk. We're headed down the path of the Weimar Republic or, more recently, Zimbabwe, places where inflation was so out of control that restaurants asked patrons to pay in advance because by the time they'd finish their meal, it would cost more. The currency became essentially worthless in a matter of days and weeks.

Don't worry, though, we're just getting started. The fun part of hyper-inflation won't come until the dollar index hits something like 45. It's still above 75, or at least it was this afternoon. That could have changed.

Dow 11,434.84, +219.71 (1.96%)
NASDAQ 2,577.34, +37.07 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,221.06, +23.10 (1.93%)
NYSE Composite 7,782.43, +174.02 (2.29%)

Gainers decimated losers on the day, 5265-1295. The new highs, new lows numbers were simply amazing: 1343 new highs; perhaps more amazing were the 112 new lows. From where did those come?

Volume was exceptional, for once, though considering that the Fed has only begun to pump nearly a trillion dollars into the stock market, we could see volume spikes which dwarf this in weeks and months to come. Today was a day to just pick some stocks you like and throw a bunch of money at them. They're almost guaranteed to go up. Even Bank of America (BAC) was up nearly 5%, despite the news that they may be on the hook for over $120 Billion in mortgage put-backs. In other words, the bank will be munching on those loans for years to come and, in fact, their exposure is probably more on the order of double or triple that.

NASDAQ Volume 2,533,570,750.00
NYSE Volume 6,609,444,500

The good news is that gold and silver went off like rockets today as well, because the really smart money (which gold and silver are) is into this space in expectation of enormous inflation and destruction of the dollar and other currencies. Gold was up $44.10, hitting a new all-time record high of $1392.90. Silver, in percentage terms, did even better, gaining $1.53, to $26.37, as JP Morgan and HSBC face criminal and class action lawsuits related to shorting and manipulating the silver market. Ouchie for them; great for anyone who loves silver.

It's a wild world out there; every man, woman and child for themselves.

Just a note in the wind. Keep an eye on House of Representative member Ron Paul, and his newly-elected Senator son, Rand. I'm promoting a Paul-Paul ticket for president and VP in 2012. A father-son team in the White House. Looks like a natural to me.

Oh, and never mind that unemployment claims were up 20,000 this week, to 457,000. That number will grow ever larger, likely to surpass 500,000 in December or by late January at the latest, while the stock market soars. Hey, who needs employees when you've got the Fed's printing presses on your side.

Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for October should be a non-event, as will most fabricated economic data from now on. with money creation out the wazoo, there's no sense in measuring anything except the thickness of your bankroll.

Yippie! We're all going to be rich!

Quickly, the News and QE2 and You

The news from the election front from last night: Republicans take control of House of Representatives, have a majority of roughly 60 seats. Democrats retained control of the Senate, though barely. 51 confirmed Democrats, enough to thwart any advances made by the newly-Republican House, guarantees the gridlock which will plunge the nation deeper into depression.

Obama, now neutered, leaves Thursday on a 10-day trip to India.

The FOMC kept rates unchanged at ZERO. The Fed did announce that it would be making additional purchases of Treasuries and other bonds to add to its already bloated balance sheet. Essentially, the Fed - though they won't say this in so many words - is sopping up more government debt and bad MBS from BofA, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

The Fed announced that the size of what's known as QE2 (Quantitative Easing, Round 2) will be $600 billion, spread over eight months, or, additional purchases of $75 billion per month, beginning now and ending in June, 2011. All this amounts to, since the money will never actually be lent into circulation, is that the Fed is even more now the buyer of bad debts of last resort, the bag-holder for the broken banking community and bankrupt government.

Even if this money were to go into circulation, the effect of it, in simple terms, would be an additional $250 per month for every person in America. Now, for a family of four, that would be $1000, but the money will supposedly stop in June of next year. Were the Fed to actually do this, instead of playing their silly "we're so smart, you don't understand economics" game, it would actually be a short-term boost to the economy, but would not create a single job nor produce any desirable long-term result.

It would be similar to cash-for-clunkers or the $8000 home-buyer tax credit, a short-term boost, which basically steals sales from the future. In reality, when it ends (it probably won't) there will be a market correction, though, since it won't really end and isn't really stimulative since it's just journal entries and money changing hands between the banks and the Fed, the only real effect will be on the stock market, which is expected to rise because that's where the banks will invest their money.

Yes, it's a Ponzi scheme.

The market reaction to the major news that the Republican party had seized control of the House and the Fed's QE2: Not much.

Dow 11,215.13, +26.41 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,540.27, +6.75 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,197.96, +4.39 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 7,608.41, +26.27 (0.35%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,018,516,000.00
NYSE Volume 5,412,413,000.0

Advancing issues topped decliners, 3685-2692. There were 628 new highs to 84 new lows. Volume was a little more robust than normal, as evidence that the PPT is still operating behind the scenes appeared after the Fed announcement. Stocks slid quickly, then were boosted back to the positive. Apparently, some quants and hedge funds were unimpressed with the measly $600 billion pledged by the Fed, but the PPT quickly stepped in and quelled the uprising.

Commodites were little changed, though crude is getting a little out of hand, reaching $84.69 on a gain of 79 cents today. $90 per barrel appears to be the target, exacerbated by the weakening dollar. Gold was kept in check, down $8.70, to $1348.80, along with silver, a loser of 10 cents, to $24.84.

The Fed's QE2 is a curiosity to many, though to those in the know, it's nothing other than a temporary loan to the US economy to keep the powers that be in power for some time longer. It staves off the eventual economic collapse that many Americans are feeling first-hand and allows the government and the banks cover for more theft and stripping of middle class wealth.

Conventional wisdom says that commodities will rise if the currency is debased, though, since QE2 is not de facto currency debasement - a nice try, but no cigar - deflation will commence with renewed vigor, further depressing all asset classes outside of stocks, and that would include commodities and precious metals by definition.

Ergo, cash is once again king. Bookmark this post and check back in a few months to see if I'm not right. We will not have runaway inflation. The Fed is afraid of deflation and with good cause, but they are also too timid to actually confront it with blunt force, so they tip-toe towards it, throwing not enough money at it which the deflation monster merrily chomps upon, following the Fed down the primrose path to depression.

Cash is king again. Watch the dollar index rise.

The End (of the ruling elite) is Here for the Taking... but is anybody listening?

Today is election day, but, for most of us, it is meaningless. The new bodies elected with do about the same as the ones being replaced: nothing, or make matters worse. To buttress my argument, I direct you to reading a post by Jim Quinn, detailing precisely how the government, with a grand assist by the private Federal Reserve, has misspent our fortune and has destined us to a future of depression and depravity. His tome is somewhat inappropriately titled, Suicide is Painless, because most people simply do not see that they and their neighbors are being slowly starved and/or bled to death, so maybe "assisted suicide is painless" would be preferable.

Now, how do we (wait, you did read the article linked above, right?) go about the destruction of the ruling elite?

Dispensing with the final scene of Fight Club, which would be thrilling and decisive, aleit never possible in the real world, we must find other means to our end.

We can start today by not voting, or voting for anybody but the candidates on the ballots (actually, the machines will change our votes to whatever they like, so just avoiding the polling places may be the best tactic).

Next, we must starve the beast. Grow your own fruits and veggies and instruct others to do the same. Cut out the Monsantos and McDonald's.

Cut utility bills by using less. Install a small solar panel or two, maybe a wind turbine, get the wasters (I have a neighbor who insists on keeping lights on in every room and two more outdoors almost all night long) to stop their own madness by showing them the reality of lower utility bills. If they don't listen, ridicule them, make them feel shame for their waste.

Kill the big banks. Take all money out of the 15 largest banks and put it in local banks or credit unions.

Keep buying gold and silver.

Fight and avoid taxation at every opportunity.

If opportunity presents itself, harm the interests of corporations. Be creative.

Foster an environment in which everybody is encouraged to be more self-reliant, less wasteful and point out the true enemies: banks, corporations, government at all levels.

It's a small start, but we must begin to take back the nation.

As for the markets, same old story. More gains on low volume.

Dow 11,188.72, +64.10 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 2,533.52, +28.68 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,193.57, +9.19 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 7,582.14, +72.93 (0.97%)

Advancers ran roughshod over declining issues, 4795-1663. There were 615 new highs and just 72 new lows. Volume: no comment.

NASDAQ Volume 1,923,377,125
NYSE Volume 4,254,097,500

My data is showing no change for oil, at $82.95, though I know it traded higher than that. Gold popped by $6.60, to $1,356.90; silver was also higher, up 28 cents, to $24.84.

There is a slew of data coming through on Wednesday, but tonight everybody will be focused on the election results. Somehow, Wall Street and their ilk believe that change is good or that somehow, electing a large number of nutjob, Tea Party Republicans is going to change policy in Washington. At best, it will produce a stalemate, which is exactly what is not needed. Change is needed. Changes in regulations, taxes, rules, but mostly in how we are governed and how the federal government communicates with the public. But that won't happen; we know it won't.

Wall Street, the real control of politicians, is full of itself and some other stuff that's usually found on cow pastures.

The data stream for tomorrow begins at 7:30 AM with the Challenger Job Cuts for October. At 8:15 AM, the release of ADP Employment Change for October, followed by the 10:00 AM release of ISM Services and Factory Orders. After the 10:30 AM release of Crude Inventories, the market will hold its collective breath, awaiting the FOMC Rate Decision at 2:15 PM, which is not really a rate decision, as federal funds rates are permanently stuck at ZERO, but the world expects to hear details on just how quickly the Fed is going to finish off the US economy through inflation, otherwise known as QE2, or, printing gazillions of dollars with nothing backing them.

Best guess moving forward is the Republicans gain control of the House, nothing changes, but the Fed produces runaway inflation in food, fuel and utilities, further crushing the middle class. Stocks will go to the moon, but the economy will be dead with unemployment approaching 25%.

There's a way out, but it requires a thinking, functioning populace that isn't dependent on the government for anything. Considering the 47 million people already on food stamps and even more on some form of government assistance (along the lines of 50% of the population), hope is fading fast.

Every man for himself? Could be.