WEEKEND WRAP: If You Like Your Bull Market, You Can Keep Your Bull Market

Taking a page from the Obama playbook, we open the first full trading week of the New Year with a promise, which may or may not be kept.

For the week that straddled the New Year holiday, all but the NASDAQ finished in the red, despite the best efforts from a furious rally on the first day of trading in 2020. In hindsight, Thursday's rally might have just been cover for what lay ahead on Friday and what could turn out to be a quite tumultuous month of trading in January. On that same note, the final two trading days of 2019 - Monday and Tuesday of last week - weren't so hot either.

Since it's far too early to tell where this all is going, especially considering the double-edged political sword that is impeachment and Iran, let's leave it at that and move forward, noting exactly where stocks, bonds, oil, and precious metals finished up 2019. Because nobody in their right mind buys and sells anything on a year-end basis, it will be instructive to keep benchmarks in mind, so they've been provided at the conclusion of this post.

At the Close, Friday, January 3, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,634.88, -233.92 (-0.81%)
NASDAQ: 9,020.77, -71.42 (-0.79%)
S&P 500: 3,234.85, -23.00 (-0.71%)
NYSE Composite: 13,917.05, -85.45 (-0.61%)

For the Week:
Dow: -10.38 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: +14.15 (+0.16%)
S&P 500: -5.17 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: -27.10 (-0.19%)


Benchmarks:
Dow: ended 2018 at 23,327.46; ended 2019 at 28,538.44; 22.34% gain
NASDAQ: ended 2018 at 6,635.28; ended 2019 at 8,972.60; 35.25% gain
S&P 500: ended 2018 at 2,506.85; ended 2019 at 3,230.78; 28.88% gain
NYSE Composite: ended 2018 at 11,374.39; ended 2019 at 13,913.03; 22.32% gain

10-year US Treasury note: Dec. 31, 2018: 2.69%; Dec. 31, 2019: 1.92%

30-year US Treasury note: Dec. 31, 2018: 3.02%; Dec. 31, 2019: 2.39%

Gold posted a gain of 18.43%, rising from 1279.00 to 1514.75 over the course of 2019.
Silver went from 15.47 to 18.05 through the year for a profit of 16.68%.
WTI Crude Oil rose from 47.09 on January 3, 2019, to 61.68 on December 30, up 30.99%.

Stocks Down Again, Failing at Second 2014 Benchmark

Amid economic cross-currents, the major indices failed at the second benchmark for the year, that being the first five days of trading, which turned out to be negative and indicative of a sub-par performance for stocks throughout 2014. The first benchmark was also negative, as stocks were sharply lower on the first trading day of the new year.

After the banner year that was 2103, in which the indices were ahead by anywhere from 26-30%, a pullback is, however, more likely than not.

Putting numbers to the reality, here's the performance for the first five trading days of 2014:
Dow: -114 points
S&P: -11 points
NASDAQ: -11 points
NYSE: -79 points

While these figures aren't anything dramatic, they are negative, suggesting that investors are taking a very cautious approach to stocks even as financial data appears to point toward a strengthening of the general economy.

ADP reported that 238,000 jobs were created in December, ahead of forecasts and predictive of an equally-strong number from the BLS when they report Friday on December non-farm payrolls.

On the flip side, retail traffic for the just-ended holiday shopping season was down 14%, though sales were still ahead by 2.7%, and, just ater the bell, Macy's (M) reported same-store sales gains in the 3.6% range but announced that they would be laying off 2500 employees and closing five stores. Shares of the company were up sharply on the news in after-hours trading.

Overall, markets were down throughout most of the day, especially the Dow Jones Industrials, which suffered the most. The NASDAQ was higher through most of the session and hit the unchanged mark with just about 20 minutes left in the trading day, but returned to slightly positive territory at the close.

Tomorrow, the first earnings report will be come to the markets as Alcoa (AA), a former Dow component, reports full-year and fourth quarter results.

DOW 16,462.74, -68.20 (-0.41%)
NASDAQ 4,165.61, +12.43 (+0.30%)
S&P 1,837.49, -0.39 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Note 97.94, -0.17 (-0.18%) Yield: 2.99%
NASDAQ Volume 2.20 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.47 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2585-3071
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 336-29
WTI crude oil: 92.33, -1.34
Gold: 1,225.50, -4.10
Silver: 19.54 , -0.248
Corn: 417.00, -9.00