WEEKEND WRAP: Bombs Away, Markets Crack, Mid-Term Turmoil

October is always full of surprises, whether they be political or financial in nature.

This week was not an exception, but, rather, the rule. Losses being sustained this month - since a topping out on October 3 - have been more severe and more significant than those encountered during February and March of this year.

That's saying quite a bit, since those winter months were quite scary. President Trump was under assault from Robert Mueller, the Special Prosecutor assigned to look into allegations (not a crime, mind you, but mere allegations, an unprecedented situation in American jurisprudence) of collusion with Russian operatives in the 2016 presidential election. Since there's been no mention of "Russia, Russia, Russia" for more than a few months now, it's safe to say that Trump was right all along: the entire investigation was a massive witch hunt.

Fast forwarding to October, Trump is still being assailed, though lately it's been over what really rankles Democrats and other detractors of the billionaire in the White House: his manners, or lack thereof, his incessant tweeting, and his very obvious disdain for liberals, Democrats and especially the media at his campaign rallies. Trump gets under people's skins. Some of it is by design. He likes making people uncomfortable. It's a way of seeing what they're made of; whether they'll lash out emotionally or display grace under pressure. For the most part, the people he's attacked, prodded, and called out have reacted with a modicum of restraint, though astute observers of the political class can tell that some, like Nancy Pelosi or Maxime Waters, are becoming unhinged or already were and Trump's thumping on them is only exacerbating their conditions of unease.

Not to belabor the point, but Trump hasn't been a bad president. In many regards, he's been good for the country. It's his rhetoric that annoys people, even his supporters. He's just not very mild-mannered or even-tempered as Americans are used to in their politicians. Some people actually enjoy his brash, unvarnished behaviors, taking them as a breath of fresh air and realism, apart from the usual stultified, superficial, and, yes, condescending attitude so popular among the Washington, DC elite.

Wall Street has taken a semi-political stance on Mr. Trump. Largely, they'll tolerate his decisions and commentaries on trade, tariffs, jobs, the economy, the Federal Reserve, and unemployment. Beneath the surface in many board rooms, however, there's a distaste for his bluster and boldness. It's just not the way things are done in higher-up circles of business. C-Suite executives prefer evenhandedness couched in cloudy rhetoric, ensconced in data points. Thus, there's a willingness to blame corporate shortfalls on this president. He presents himself as a convenient scapegoat and Wall Street honchos are more than willing to cast blame his way.

More than a few earnings reports this week included references to Trump's tariffs - those either in place or those he's only proposed - as excuses for shortfalls in revenue or earnings, or, most often, in forward guidance. There is a not-so-cleverly-disguised blame game being played at the highest levels of corporate America. Executives in growing numbers are calling out Trump's trade policies as a rationale for their own failures, and, for some, rightly so.

President Trump never promised Wall Street or anybody else a Rose Garden party. He always knew, and often made clear, that his imposition of tariffs on a variety of trading parties - but particularly, China - were going to have some negative effects. Naturally, he was right. Prices for many things made outside US borders are going up, a direct result of tariffs, but the end goal is not higher prices, but fairer trade, and that is not going to occur without some pain, and some of that will be significant.

Laying ahead for the economy, Wall Street and US consumers are higher prices right at the most inopportune time, the holiday buying season. When the final tallies from the fourth quarter are posted via retail sales figures and fourth quarter earnings in January, 2019, the numbers are likely to cause an even bigger shock. With all of America preconditioned for ever-expanding economic data, the fourth quarter of 2018 may look to some like the end of the world, if certain conditions are met, those being, retailers will slash prices to boost demand, resulting in lower profit margins and poor performance for some major companies. Trump and his terrible tariffs will be blamed.

This week was also overwhelmed by the "one big story" about the mad bomber from Florida who sent poorly-designed pipe bombs to former presidents and officials, presidential detractors, and a few current office-holders, all of whom shared one characteristic: they disliked or disagreed with President Donald J. Trump. Fortunately, the bomb-maker was highly unprofessional. None of his masterpieces of terror actually detonated.

Nevertheless, the "suspicious" packages that appeared all at once in mailrooms, postal facilities and elsewhere engendered a media frenzy and resulted in a quick arrest of the very obvious suspect, Cesar Sayoc. His background and the continuing investigation and eventual trial will extend well beyond the mid-term elections. For those wearing tin-foil caps and assigning this event to the "false flag" files, Sayoc's timing appeared to be too coincidentally close to election day. There's all sorts of spin. Most of it is not worth a moment's reflection.

Which brings up the matter of the mid-term elections, as if they were some world-changing event upon which the ultimate survival of American democracy and the rule of law hinged. That's how the media would have us view it, though contention for House of Representative seats occurs every two years without fail. Which party controls it gives power over committees to the winning side, the losers left to plot ways to undermine and unseat their successful opponents. This one's a little different, as it is something of a referendum on the Trump presidency, or so we've been told. The results won't matter much in the larger scheme of things since Washington DC politicians seldom do anything well, or right, or, at all. The mid-terms are just an excuse for advertising companies to make money and for politicians to claim they're on the right sides of various issues. Generally speaking, the American public would be better off if there were less politicking, less government overall, and less preening and posing for cameras by the stuffy types that populate the interior the DC Beltway.

How does politics affect stock prices: a little, but, in the end, not much at all. The mid-terms are all about bloviating and posturing and ballot-box stuffing, and boasting. Whoever wins will claim the juicy committee chairs. Should the House flip from Republican to Democrat this year, though, it will be an unmitigated mess, rom media crowing about the victory of globalism over nationalism, to absurd proposals to impeach President Trump. That is the one scenario that even Wall Street is afraid to embrace. It could unhinge everybody and everything.

Notwithstanding any such Democrat miasma, the mid-terms will come and go in another 10 days or so, and with it any chance to blame either party for the downfall of the economy (which is actually doing quite well) or for particular industries or companies. They'll be done and the media can dance around the implications until the new political faces are sworn in come January. None of it will make any difference to stocks, bonds, or the prices of oil, natural gas, gold, silver, sugar, tea, coffee, or Diet Pepsi. Nothing. Unless the Democrats take control of the House. Then, look out.

As far as stocks are concerned, well, they're still largely overvalued by most traditional measures, those being straight up PE ratios or the more in-vogue CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) ratio, a Robert Schiller concept that measures PE over a 10-year period rather than just the most recent one. It's sensible, and now, widely employed. According to the current chart, the CAPE is at 30.00, down a little due to the recent sliding, but still above 2008 levels and about even with 1929's Black Tuesday, from which the stock market crashed and was a contributing factor in the Great Depression.

That said, this bout of volatility in markets is not about to abate. Not by any means. All of the major indices closed out the week below their 200-day moving averages, and, maybe more importantly, the weekly charts put them below their 40-month moving averages, something that hasn't happened since 2008-09.

Stating the all-too-obvious, markets move in cycles, and the bullish cycle is about over. The bearish case - and this again is confirmed by Dow Theory, and we will spare readers the explicit numbers for now - has been signaled and is already underway. The only way up from here is to get to the bottom. There will be bumps, grinds, irrational exuberance, toil, trouble, relief rallies and false alarms, but the trend is your friend and the trend, friend, is down.

Dow Jones Industrial Average October Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
10/1/18	26,651.21	+192.90	+192.90
10/2/18	26,773.94	+122.73	+315.63
10/3/18	26,828.39	+54.45	+370.08
10/4/18	26,627.48	-200.91	+169.17
10/5/18	26,447.05	-180.43	-11.26
10/8/18	26,486.78	+39.73	+28.47
10/9/18	26,430.57	-56.21	-27.74
10/10/18	25,598.74	-831.83	-859.57
10/11/18	25,052.83	-545.91	-1,405.48
10/12/18	25,339.99	+287.16	-1,118.32
10/15/18	25,250.55	-89.44	-1,207.76
10/16/18	25,798.42	+547.87	-659.89
10/17/18	25,706.68	-91.74	-751.63
10/18/18	25,379.45	-327.23	-1,078.86
10/19/18	25,444.34	+64.89	-1,013.97
10/22/18	25,317.41	-126.93	-1,140.90
10/23/18	25,191.43	-125.98	-1,265.88
10/24/18	24,583.42	-608.01	-1,873.89
10/25/18	24,984.55	+401.13	-1,472.76
10/26/18	24,688.31	-296.24	-1,769.00

At the Close, Friday, October 26, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,688.31, -296.24 (-1.19%)
NASDAQ: 7,167.21, -151.12 (-2.06%)
S&P 500: 2,658.69, -46.88 (-1.73%)
NYSE Composite: 11,976.95, -141.90 (-1.17%)

For the Week:
Dow: -756.03 (-2.97%)
NASDAQ: -281.81 (-3.78%)
S&P 500: -109.09 (-3.94%)
NYSE Composite: -480.32 (-3.86%)

(NOT) Paying Attention To Intra-Day Swings

Shortly after the open today, the Dow had shot up 88 points.

By noon, it was down 87, thus, making a 1% move in the course of 2 1/2 hours.

Coincidence or central planning aside, the upside move equaled the downside move, nearly to the penny.

From noon until 2:00 pm, the Dow index clawed back all of the losses and was trading positively again, up around 40 points, or, just about half of the early day gains. Eventually, the Dow closed up a few points, more or less unchanged.

Day-traders may be scratching their collective skulls over this odd pattern, though it should be noted that almost none of the moves - to the up or downside - had anything at all to do with fundamentals, sentiment, forward-thinking, the presidential election cycle, or the price of pork in China.

It probably had everything to do with front-running algos which dominate the so-called "trading," which has become more of a skimming operation by firms like Citadel and other adherents of non-free market operations.

The headline financial media will try to come up with story lines to match the mood, though none of them can adequately pass even the most rudimentary smell test. The financial talking heads in macro-land are faking it as best they can, while the market remains stuck in a no-man's land that's been in place for just about a year now (taking the long view), or, a truly narrow range on the Dow between 17,500 and 18,000 since March 18.

On 34 of the past 39 trading days (including today) the Dow closed within that range. Of the five days it closed outside that range, all of them were above the 18,000 line, the highest being 18,096, on April 20.

Essentially, stocks have been going nowhere for quite some time, especially over the past month and a half, in which the total range was roughly three percent.

Which brings us to the question of intra-day moves and whether or not to pay them any mind. Unless one is engaged in betting with friends on market swings, or day-trading (an occupation which can put your whole house in jeopardy), intra-day swings should be discounted dramatically. The old saying, "the trend is your friend," doesn't apply unless you're looking of weeks, months or years.

Going Nowhere, Slowly:
S&P 500: 2,064.11, -0.35 (0.02%)
Dow: 17,720.50, +9.38 (0.05%)
NASDAQ: 4,737.33, -23.35 (0.49%)

Crude Oil 46.39 -0.66% Gold 1,267.40 -0.30% EUR/USD 1.1376 +0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.76 +1.15% Corn 387.50 -0.39% Copper 2.07 -0.05% Silver 17.08 -0.16% Natural Gas 2.13 -0.97% Russell 2000 1,108.60 -0.55% VIX 14.41 -1.91% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4445 -0.01% USD/JPY 109.0300 -0.05%

2007 Predictions (part 2)

Management will be key in 2007. Those companies which can outperform their rivals and adjust to changing economic and market conditions will appreciate dramatically in 2007, while the bulk of publicly-traded companies will skirmish with health care, distribution and marketing issues.

Stocks in general will perform poorly, however, and some will fail outright. A correction is fairly due in the near term, most likely in the first two quarters of 2007, though either sharply rising prices or range-bound fluctuations are equally possible. There has not been a 10-15% correction in the Dow for the entire length of the current bull market, which has now extended to 51 months.

The Dow has just completed its 4th consecutive year of positive returns and 2006 was the best year in the past three. It's not surprising that stocks have accomplished such sparkling gains considering the healthy profit scenarios and rather loose policy guidelines over recent years.

What is surprising is how the markets have behaved with rigid resolution during a time of high deficit spending, a poor balance of trade and the general malaise associated with the conflict in Iraq and the poor US foreign relations policy. Falling currency values must have contributed to higher share prices over this period. Foreigners have, in relation to dollar-denominated assets, more money to boost stock prices, and they certainly have. One could assert that stocks must rise just to stay even with the falling value of the US dollar.

Continued loose policy on many fronts, including the Fed's rate policy could lead to a hyperinflationary environment, but that's all about to change. The shifting politics in Washington should foment positive movements on fiscal policy, foreign relations and spending. A conclusion in Iraq is overdue and calls for an end to US military involvement in the Middle East will only grow louder if the conditions remain the same or worsen.

It's going to be a year of transition in which strong internal management will not only profit but lead into a more balanced and dynamic market. With that in mind, a 15% rise on the Dow would put the average at 16,675, a number that not only seems unrealistic, and probably is. Don't expect the Dow to cross much higher than 16,000 at some point in 2007, but be reminded that a pull-back in the first half will make such a move all the more daunting.

To say that every rally climbs a wall of worry is to speak loudly of this current bull. Sustaining the edge during a transition will not be easy for traders or investors. Expect a cyclical change in sector leadership, and small emerging technology companies in computing, agriculture, medicine and energy will perform very well and many will be takeover targets.

Large value companies, like those comprising the Dow, will continue to diversify to meet changing demands and become even more entrenched in their respective business sectors. That's all positive news for US stocks and 2007 will present quality buying opportunities. The underground, or unseen, economy will continue to thrive and feed into the mainstream at an unprecedented rate. Cash and credit are circulating and growing remarkedly; a condition that must be approached and understood to be cautionary.

2007 will experience political disruptions more often than economic ones. The world's currency exchange system, precarious as it is, has now interpreted globalization effects and accommodated. While areas of fragility will persist, no cataclysmic events can be seen looming and those problem areas such as inflation and disparities in markets will be met with policy action. Areas outside the US will almost certainly afford better returns, though with the associated higher risk. Established foreign firms based in stable nations should be given a hard look.

Expected gains are 7% on the Dow, 12% on the Nasdaq and 5% on the S&P 500 at year end, though the range, especially the lows, could be dramatic.