As end-of-quarter trading sessions go, this one was quite on the tame side.
Sure enough, funds bought up some of the most-favored names as "window dressing" for clients, present and future, pleasure. It's an age old tactic to garner new business. "Look what we have," is how funds tout their portfolios to prospective investors, since there are no regulations prohibiting such misleading behavior.
Nonetheless, the practice is commonplace, but less and less significant as consumers become more aware of some Wall Street tactics.
Otherwise, most of the buzz on Monday was over the ongoing impeachment coup against President Trump being conducted in the House of Representatives. The Democrats are using unnamed sources in second-hand, hearsay-colored, whistleblower complaints as their latest weapon against the president.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also changed House rules back in December to allow committee members to take depositions from interviewees and people subpoenaed without minority (Republican) representation, which is why the Democrats are working swiftly to take statements while they are actually in recess. Clearing out the opposition is a truly underhanded tactic, not worthy of the US congress, though the Democrat party has apparently now sunk to new levels of sleaziness. More on all of this in an article authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog.
Much of what's occurring in DC is apparent to the sharpest minds on Wall Street, and there's certain to be monitoring of events as the happen. Taking wall Street's apparent unconcerned posture as a clue, there's likely less than a 10 percent chance of the Democrats succeeding in impeaching President Trump. Their narrative is weak, not all members of the party are in agreement with approach and, further, if the House actually voted to impeach, a trial would have to be held in the Senate, where a 2/3rds vote is needed to convict and that is highly unlikely, given that Republicans are in the majority.
The weeks ahead will surely be replete with accusations and arguments about the president's "unfitness." A spirited counter-attack from the administration is also expected, and that should be a spectacle to behold.
Wall Street seems confident that the tremors in Washington, DC will not result in a political earthquake. While a positive outcome from their proceedings is far from assured, it is probably best to keep a level head, understanding that much of what the House Democrats are calling "crimes" are actually the president investigating the root causes of the non-stop witch hunt against him.
At the Close, Monday, September 30, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,916.83, +96.58 (+0.36%)
NASDAQ: 7,999.34, +59.71 (+0.75%)
S&P 500: 2,976.74, +14.95 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 13,004.74, +32.76 (+0.25%)
Showing posts with label window dressing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label window dressing. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Sunday, April 1, 2018
Weekly Recap: Stocks Get a Boost to End Month, But Still Finish Down for March
Call it window dressing, because that's pretty much what the final trading day of March will amount to, being that the markets have been battered and buffeted up and down - mostly down - for the past two months, gains on the Thursday prior to a three-day weekend should be considered a non-event.
As the March scorecard below shows, the big losses on the 22nd and 23rd could not be recouped, despite a bounce-back on Monday, the 26th, of nearly 670 Dow points. Combining the February and March declines, the Dow lost more than 200 points in those two months, and ends March more than 2500 points off the January 26 all-time high (26,616.71).
Of particular focus now are the declines following the most recent federal funds rate hike from Wednesday, March 21. Just after the 2:00 pm EDT announcement that day, the Dow rose to 24,977.65, making the drop post-FOMC a full 874 points, despite the bounce-back Monday (26th) and the close-out dead-cat-like bounce on Thursday, the 29th.
Also, keeping the chartists busy is the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT), which nearly signaled bear market conditions on Wednesday, the 28th, three times dipping below the magic mark indicated by the February 8 close of 10,136.61 before finishing up with a slight positive bent. Thursday's 200+ point gain on the transports was more window dressing, short covering or outright central bank dip buying, giving the market some degree of confidence, even though there realistically should be little.
Anybody with an eye on the chart of the Transportation Index sold be keenly aware of the intra-day low on February 8, an awe-inspiring bottom at 9,806.79. Likewise, the intra-day low on the Industrial side was a jaw-dropping 23,360.29, on February 9.
The Industrials have already surpassed the February closing low of 23,860.46, finishing March 23 at 23,533.20. Therefore, according to Dow Theory, the only element missing from calling this market a bear - signifying a primary directional change - is for the Transportation Index to close below it's recent low to confirm.
As arcane and confusing as that may sound, the rigors of Dow Theory are almost never wrong when it comes to indicating primary changes. One only need check the stats from 2000 and 2008 (and many times before that) to see how that this signal is very accurate.
Not to say that the Dow and even more so, individual stocks, can't continue to dive to lower and lower depths, but it would be hard to see such a scenario developing without a significant slide on the Transportation Index.
Putting March in perspective, the losses here are notable, as March is traditionally a strong month for investors, with an average gain on the S&P 500 - according to this calculator - of 1.11% from 1950 to the present, outdone only by the months of April (1.34%), November (1.39%) and December (1.53%). If equities continue to show weakness through April it might come as a surprise, but, even if it doesn't, the months of May through September are traditionally the weakest, with cumulative returns of just 0.22% over that 1950-2017 span. August and September are actually negative for that time period, posting losses of 0.27% and 0.64%, respectively.
While those figures are for the S&P, they serve as something of a proxy for the Dow, so if a bear market is to eventually emerge (and these things often take some time to develop), there's a high probability that the bull could hang on until August, significant, as the first estimate of Q2 GDP would print late July.
For the week, the NASDAQ was by far the weak performer, the only index incapable of exceeding a two percent gain over the four-day period. It wasn't even close, as the NASDAQ gained only 1.01%, unsurprising, since the NASDAQ had been significantly out-performing the other indices.
All of this number-churning should come as a relief for both bulls and bears. As April unfolds, there may be an easing up in volatility, and some gains to be had, but the ominous signs of an overpriced and subsequently weakening stock market are proliferating, the general economy notwithstanding. This offers some time to adjust strategies before what seems to be an obvious downdraft coming this summer.
That may be a huge speculation, but that's what makes a market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
At the Close, Thursday, March 29, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,103.11, +254.69 (+1.07%)
NASDAQ: 7,063.44, +114.22 (+1.64%)
S&P 500: 2,640.87, +35.87 (+1.38%)
NYSE Composite: 12,452.06, +143.17 (+1.16%)
For the Week:
Dow: +569.91 (+2.42%)
NASDAQ: +70.78 (+1.01%)
S&P 500: +52.61 (+2.03%)
NYSE Composite: +274.36 (+2.25%)
As the March scorecard below shows, the big losses on the 22nd and 23rd could not be recouped, despite a bounce-back on Monday, the 26th, of nearly 670 Dow points. Combining the February and March declines, the Dow lost more than 200 points in those two months, and ends March more than 2500 points off the January 26 all-time high (26,616.71).
Of particular focus now are the declines following the most recent federal funds rate hike from Wednesday, March 21. Just after the 2:00 pm EDT announcement that day, the Dow rose to 24,977.65, making the drop post-FOMC a full 874 points, despite the bounce-back Monday (26th) and the close-out dead-cat-like bounce on Thursday, the 29th.
Also, keeping the chartists busy is the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT), which nearly signaled bear market conditions on Wednesday, the 28th, three times dipping below the magic mark indicated by the February 8 close of 10,136.61 before finishing up with a slight positive bent. Thursday's 200+ point gain on the transports was more window dressing, short covering or outright central bank dip buying, giving the market some degree of confidence, even though there realistically should be little.
Anybody with an eye on the chart of the Transportation Index sold be keenly aware of the intra-day low on February 8, an awe-inspiring bottom at 9,806.79. Likewise, the intra-day low on the Industrial side was a jaw-dropping 23,360.29, on February 9.
The Industrials have already surpassed the February closing low of 23,860.46, finishing March 23 at 23,533.20. Therefore, according to Dow Theory, the only element missing from calling this market a bear - signifying a primary directional change - is for the Transportation Index to close below it's recent low to confirm.
As arcane and confusing as that may sound, the rigors of Dow Theory are almost never wrong when it comes to indicating primary changes. One only need check the stats from 2000 and 2008 (and many times before that) to see how that this signal is very accurate.
Not to say that the Dow and even more so, individual stocks, can't continue to dive to lower and lower depths, but it would be hard to see such a scenario developing without a significant slide on the Transportation Index.
Putting March in perspective, the losses here are notable, as March is traditionally a strong month for investors, with an average gain on the S&P 500 - according to this calculator - of 1.11% from 1950 to the present, outdone only by the months of April (1.34%), November (1.39%) and December (1.53%). If equities continue to show weakness through April it might come as a surprise, but, even if it doesn't, the months of May through September are traditionally the weakest, with cumulative returns of just 0.22% over that 1950-2017 span. August and September are actually negative for that time period, posting losses of 0.27% and 0.64%, respectively.
While those figures are for the S&P, they serve as something of a proxy for the Dow, so if a bear market is to eventually emerge (and these things often take some time to develop), there's a high probability that the bull could hang on until August, significant, as the first estimate of Q2 GDP would print late July.
For the week, the NASDAQ was by far the weak performer, the only index incapable of exceeding a two percent gain over the four-day period. It wasn't even close, as the NASDAQ gained only 1.01%, unsurprising, since the NASDAQ had been significantly out-performing the other indices.
All of this number-churning should come as a relief for both bulls and bears. As April unfolds, there may be an easing up in volatility, and some gains to be had, but the ominous signs of an overpriced and subsequently weakening stock market are proliferating, the general economy notwithstanding. This offers some time to adjust strategies before what seems to be an obvious downdraft coming this summer.
That may be a huge speculation, but that's what makes a market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 3/1/18 | 24,608.98 | -420.22 | -420.22 |
| 3/2/18 | 24,538.06 | -70.92 | -491.14 |
| 3/5/18 | 24,874.76 | +336.70 | -154.44 |
| 3/6/18 | 24,884.12 | +9.36 | -145.08 |
| 3/7/18 | 24,801.36 | -82.76 | -227.84 |
| 3/8/18 | 24,895.21 | +93.85 | -133.99 |
| 3/9/18 | 25,335.74 | +440.53 | +306.54 |
| 3/12/18 | 25,178.61 | -157.13 | +149.41 |
| 3/13/18 | 25,007.03, | -171.58 | -22.17 |
| 3/14/18 | 24,758.12 | -248.91 | -271.08 |
| 3/15/18 | 24,873.66 | +115.54 | -155.54 |
| 3/16/18 | 24,946.51 | +72.85 | -82.69 |
| 3/19/18 | 24,610.91 | -335.60 | -418.29 |
| 3/20/18 | 24,727.27 | +116.36 | -301.93 |
| 3/21/18 | 24,682.31 | -44.96 | -346.89 |
| 3/22/18 | 23,957.89 | -724.42 | -1071.31 |
| 3/23/18 | 23,533.20 | -424.69 | -1496.00 |
| 3/26/18 | 24,202.60 | +669.40 | -826.60 |
| 3/27/18 | 23,857.71 | -344.89 | -1171.49 |
| 3/28/18 | 23,848.42 | -9.29 | -1180.78 |
| 3/29/18 | 24,103.11 | +254.69 | -926.09 |
At the Close, Thursday, March 29, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,103.11, +254.69 (+1.07%)
NASDAQ: 7,063.44, +114.22 (+1.64%)
S&P 500: 2,640.87, +35.87 (+1.38%)
NYSE Composite: 12,452.06, +143.17 (+1.16%)
For the Week:
Dow: +569.91 (+2.42%)
NASDAQ: +70.78 (+1.01%)
S&P 500: +52.61 (+2.03%)
NYSE Composite: +274.36 (+2.25%)
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Stocks Slip In Afternoon Trading; Where's The Window Dressing?
Stocks continued their up-and-down action on Thursday, posting one of the larger losses of the season, something that's becoming more and more commonplace as the election nears.
Perhaps investors and speculators are playing a game of chicken, day-trading on quick profits (a likely scenario), or perhaps more are coming to the realization that all is not well in the US or global economy and shocks such as experienced by the recent Brexit vote could contribute to more disorder.
The Commerce Department today announced the third and final estimate for second quarter GDP, a disappointing 1.4%, another reminder that the economy is not picking up any steam and may be stuck in a semi-permanent state of stagnation and denial, with outright deflation lurking at every turn.
The reality of the situation is that Americans seem fairly content with the way things are economically, at least on the surface. However, good-paying, long-lasting jobs and careers are harder and harder to come by and what used to be fixed costs, such as utility bills, property taxes, and other fees for services (think health care) continue to ratchet higher in cost on an annual basis.
Also of concern are diminishing corporate profits, which have been heading south for the better part of two years. It's simply more difficult in a tight economy to wring out better and higher EPS and bottom line profits.
Market analysis being a somewhat difficult and thankless task, those are at least some of the potential catalysts for today's declines on the major indices. Tomorrow being the final day of the month and the quarter, one should be looking for "window dressing," wherein fund managers buy up stocks seemingly in favor to add to the portfolio and prospectus. Oddly enough, we may be witnessing window shading instead, as fund managers shed stocks that are under-performing, currently about 65% of the market.
With only a few key stocks keeping the averages afloat, the time for a major pullback has probably long past, since the Fed continues to prop up the market with its easy money.
Thursday Tumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,143.45, -195.79 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ
5,269.15, -49.39 (-0.93%)
S&P 500
2,151.13, -20.24 (-0.93%)
NYSE Composite
10,643.48, -109.97 (-1.02%)
Perhaps investors and speculators are playing a game of chicken, day-trading on quick profits (a likely scenario), or perhaps more are coming to the realization that all is not well in the US or global economy and shocks such as experienced by the recent Brexit vote could contribute to more disorder.
The Commerce Department today announced the third and final estimate for second quarter GDP, a disappointing 1.4%, another reminder that the economy is not picking up any steam and may be stuck in a semi-permanent state of stagnation and denial, with outright deflation lurking at every turn.
The reality of the situation is that Americans seem fairly content with the way things are economically, at least on the surface. However, good-paying, long-lasting jobs and careers are harder and harder to come by and what used to be fixed costs, such as utility bills, property taxes, and other fees for services (think health care) continue to ratchet higher in cost on an annual basis.
Also of concern are diminishing corporate profits, which have been heading south for the better part of two years. It's simply more difficult in a tight economy to wring out better and higher EPS and bottom line profits.
Market analysis being a somewhat difficult and thankless task, those are at least some of the potential catalysts for today's declines on the major indices. Tomorrow being the final day of the month and the quarter, one should be looking for "window dressing," wherein fund managers buy up stocks seemingly in favor to add to the portfolio and prospectus. Oddly enough, we may be witnessing window shading instead, as fund managers shed stocks that are under-performing, currently about 65% of the market.
With only a few key stocks keeping the averages afloat, the time for a major pullback has probably long past, since the Fed continues to prop up the market with its easy money.
Thursday Tumble:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,143.45, -195.79 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ
5,269.15, -49.39 (-0.93%)
S&P 500
2,151.13, -20.24 (-0.93%)
NYSE Composite
10,643.48, -109.97 (-1.02%)
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
A Beginning And An End: Stocks And Oil Hit The Skids
Tuesday marked a beginning and an end in more ways than just the day and date.
On the one hand, today was the start of the trading week, shortened by Monday's Memorial Day holiday. On the other, it was May 31, the final trading day of the month, a date normally associated with the buying of stocks as "window dressing," wherein funds pad their holdings with the most favored stock offerings.
As days go, this one was a downer for stocks, with the major averages taking a deep dip before a late-session rally brought the S&P and NASDAQ respectively closer to breakeven and into positive territory. The Dow suffered the worst, losing nearly 150 points before ripping off a significant portion of the losses in the closing hour, ending with a drop close to 1/2 percent.
Thus, the day's trading may have marked the start of another downtrend for stocks, following the massive gains of the prior week. Notable was trading in WTI crude oil futures, which tested the $50 mark before falling off to close more than a dollar lower. Oil has been on a tear since bottoming out at $26 per barrel in mid-February.
An astonishing feat of market movement, the price of crude has nearly doubled in just over three months, but the phony pumping may have come to a quick end. Time will tell if $50 turns out to be a price too high to bear and whether stocks will begin a hasty retreat, having tested the top of the short-term range.
Investing and market-watching alike have become spectator sports of sorts for many, depending upon the level and length of financial repression one can endure, both of which have been in play for far too long.
S&P 500: 2,096.96, -2.10 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,787.20, -86.02 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.05, +14.55 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 48.83 -1.01% Gold 1,217.50 +0.07% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.92% Corn 406.50 -1.51% Copper 2.08 -1.40% Silver 16.00 -1.65% Natural Gas 2.71 +1.61% Russell 2000 1,154.79 +0.38% VIX 14.19 +8.16% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4486 +0.04% USD/JPY 110.7115 -0.03%
On the one hand, today was the start of the trading week, shortened by Monday's Memorial Day holiday. On the other, it was May 31, the final trading day of the month, a date normally associated with the buying of stocks as "window dressing," wherein funds pad their holdings with the most favored stock offerings.
As days go, this one was a downer for stocks, with the major averages taking a deep dip before a late-session rally brought the S&P and NASDAQ respectively closer to breakeven and into positive territory. The Dow suffered the worst, losing nearly 150 points before ripping off a significant portion of the losses in the closing hour, ending with a drop close to 1/2 percent.
Thus, the day's trading may have marked the start of another downtrend for stocks, following the massive gains of the prior week. Notable was trading in WTI crude oil futures, which tested the $50 mark before falling off to close more than a dollar lower. Oil has been on a tear since bottoming out at $26 per barrel in mid-February.
An astonishing feat of market movement, the price of crude has nearly doubled in just over three months, but the phony pumping may have come to a quick end. Time will tell if $50 turns out to be a price too high to bear and whether stocks will begin a hasty retreat, having tested the top of the short-term range.
Investing and market-watching alike have become spectator sports of sorts for many, depending upon the level and length of financial repression one can endure, both of which have been in play for far too long.
S&P 500: 2,096.96, -2.10 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,787.20, -86.02 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 4,948.05, +14.55 (0.29%)
Crude Oil 48.83 -1.01% Gold 1,217.50 +0.07% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.03% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 -0.92% Corn 406.50 -1.51% Copper 2.08 -1.40% Silver 16.00 -1.65% Natural Gas 2.71 +1.61% Russell 2000 1,154.79 +0.38% VIX 14.19 +8.16% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4486 +0.04% USD/JPY 110.7115 -0.03%
Monday, February 29, 2016
Stormy Monday Portends Trouble for Bullish Case
It's the last day of February. The market bulls could have added a little window dressing to make their case, but, instead, stocks vacillated from the open until just before noon, with losses mounting through the afternoon and into the close.
Not only is this an end of month Monday, but it is also the start of "jobs week," wherein all eyes will be peeled open in anticipation of Friday's non-farm payroll report for February. The structure of the market and the charts suggest that the rally of the prior two weeks has not only stalled out, but lost its bearings, since oil was markedly higher on the day. Stocks did not follow.
The problem with the oil/stocks pairing is that they are not and should not be aligned. Lower oil prices, have, over time, proven to be a boost for economies, but not necessarily the stock market. In reality, lower oil and distillate prices should be an overall boon for businesses, lowering a variable cost, thus potentially boosting profits. With the massive, global oversupply of crude that exists presently, the natural price of oil should be closer to $20 per barrel than $30.
Since the oil/stocks dichotomy is likely a false paradigm, the decoupling exposes the rigged market for what it really is: front-running algos, insider trading, forced trades at stops, short-covering rallies on vaporish volume and insidious surprise rebounds off questionable low points.
That's what makes today's slide all the more concerning. Perhaps the masks are coming off and the knives are coming out. We are undoubtably at the beginning of a secular bear market, with the long-toothed bull dying back in May of 2015. It's been downhill - with assorted fits and starts - since then, and markets are still in a search for the bottom.
Perhaps a one-off isn't enough to convince the bulls that the party is over. Stocks may well resume their rally as the week continues. As noted in Money Daily's weekend recap, the rally should have legs through the FOMC meeting before capitulation commences. However, it won't be the first time to be proven wrong, and surely not the last.
S&P 500: 1,932.23, -15.82 (0.81%)
Dow: 16,516.50, -123.47 (0.74%)
NASDAQ: 4,557.95, -32.52 (0.71%)
Crude Oil 33.89 +3.39% Gold 1,239.30 +1.55% EUR/USD 1.0877 -0.50% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -1.25% Corn 357.25 -0.63% Copper 2.13 +0.19% Silver 14.94 +1.50% Natural Gas 1.71 -4.63% Russell 2000 1,033.90 -0.32% VIX 20.55 +3.74% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3919 +0.41% USD/JPY 112.7050 -0.88%
Not only is this an end of month Monday, but it is also the start of "jobs week," wherein all eyes will be peeled open in anticipation of Friday's non-farm payroll report for February. The structure of the market and the charts suggest that the rally of the prior two weeks has not only stalled out, but lost its bearings, since oil was markedly higher on the day. Stocks did not follow.
The problem with the oil/stocks pairing is that they are not and should not be aligned. Lower oil prices, have, over time, proven to be a boost for economies, but not necessarily the stock market. In reality, lower oil and distillate prices should be an overall boon for businesses, lowering a variable cost, thus potentially boosting profits. With the massive, global oversupply of crude that exists presently, the natural price of oil should be closer to $20 per barrel than $30.
Since the oil/stocks dichotomy is likely a false paradigm, the decoupling exposes the rigged market for what it really is: front-running algos, insider trading, forced trades at stops, short-covering rallies on vaporish volume and insidious surprise rebounds off questionable low points.
That's what makes today's slide all the more concerning. Perhaps the masks are coming off and the knives are coming out. We are undoubtably at the beginning of a secular bear market, with the long-toothed bull dying back in May of 2015. It's been downhill - with assorted fits and starts - since then, and markets are still in a search for the bottom.
Perhaps a one-off isn't enough to convince the bulls that the party is over. Stocks may well resume their rally as the week continues. As noted in Money Daily's weekend recap, the rally should have legs through the FOMC meeting before capitulation commences. However, it won't be the first time to be proven wrong, and surely not the last.
S&P 500: 1,932.23, -15.82 (0.81%)
Dow: 16,516.50, -123.47 (0.74%)
NASDAQ: 4,557.95, -32.52 (0.71%)
Crude Oil 33.89 +3.39% Gold 1,239.30 +1.55% EUR/USD 1.0877 -0.50% 10-Yr Bond 1.74 -1.25% Corn 357.25 -0.63% Copper 2.13 +0.19% Silver 14.94 +1.50% Natural Gas 1.71 -4.63% Russell 2000 1,033.90 -0.32% VIX 20.55 +3.74% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3919 +0.41% USD/JPY 112.7050 -0.88%
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Consumer Confidence and the Second American Revolution
Proof that I'm not a pessimist, but rather a realist, comes from The Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence reading. As it turns out, pessimism may turn out to be a new national pastime if the 5000 households surveyed are any indication.
Check out these figures:
The overall index stands at 49.3 in June, down from 54.8. That number is much worse than it would appear on the surface. Consider that the index is calibrated to conform to a 1985 reading of 100. Well, life certainly wasn't perfect in 1985, so the index being more than halved in the subsequent 24 years means what? People are only half as satisfied or confident as they were then? In any case, it's not good.
Here's the really terrifying stuff. though. The percentage of people claiming that business conditions were "good" fell to 8.0%, from 8.8%. 8 percent! Now that's what I call pessimistic. There's more: People who thought jobs were plentiful: 4.7%; people who thought their incomes would increase in the next six months: 9.8%. Less than one in ten people expect a raise by December. That's pretty gloomy, no? Or maybe, just maybe, the people in this survey, which we assume is a nice cross-section of America, are not pessimists, but realists, who have seen the government's attempts at stimulus fall flat, who maybe don't believe all the lies from the controlled media, and who may have been around long enough and been through enough to lose faith in the federal government and its promises to fix everything.
America has always been an optimistic nation, but considering the current crop of politicians (largely failures) in the power structure of Washington, it is conceivable that many people have lost their patience and are losing faith in the "system," which is clearly broken and not about to be fixed by the people who broke it.
This is not to say that Americans are becoming pessimists, it's just saying that they're fed up with the status quo, and actually have been for quite some time. Americans may also be sending a message to Washington which goes something like this:
"We don't want more debt. We don't want a $1.75 trillion deficit. We want you (the government) to tighten your belts, cut spending and trim some of the fat. We are not on board with tax-and-spend, cap-and-trade, more expensive health care and the rest of your proposed plans for us. We are not standing with you, because you don't stand for us. If you continue, we shall stand against you."
That's pretty much it, isn't it? Americans are pretty tired of the US government, their state government and their local government sticking their noses into every last aspect of their lives and taxing them into oblivion. Nobody in Washington is currently listening to the American people and there's pretty good evidence that nobody's been listening for the past 10 years. Since they're not going to listen, then why pay them tribute? We owe them nothing. In fact, they owe us plenty.
Change will come, and mostly by the actions of government. Voting obviously hasn't made an impact, so the natural progression is for people to vote with their wallets and purses, and that's already occurring. Less and less revenue is flowing into government coffers and the flow will continue to slacken until it is just a trickle. This device, known as "starving the government" will produce change because the government will be unable to fund anything but the most rudimentary programs, and maybe not even those.
Americans, realists all, will not pay taxes and government will fall. That is our history, that is our right. The second American revolution has begun.
Noting that confidence is waning, Wall Streeters quickly abandoned their "window dressing" strategy in favor of a "jump ship" approach. After the Conference Board's report, stocks turned from narrowly positive to grossly negative in a hurry and stayed down for the remainder of the session. Coupled with yesterday's gains, the Dow is up a mind-boggling 8 points this week.
Dow 8,447.00, -82.38 (0.97%)
NASDAQ 1,835.04, -9.02 (0.49%)
S&P 500 919.33, -7.90 (0.85%)
NYSE Composite 5,905.14, -57.36 (0.96%)
Internals confirmed that the turnaround was no fluke. Declining issues outpaced advancers, 3653-2712. New lows surpassed new highs, breaking a three-day trend, 64-59. Volume was very light, as has been the case for most of the past month.
NYSE Volume 1,296,750,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,064,647,000
Like stocks, oil turned around on Tuesday, shedding $1.60, to close at $69.89. Gold also beat a steady retreat, losing $13.30, to $927.40. There was some dumping of silver as well, down 38 cents, to $13.60.
Americans are neither happy nor optimistic, a fairly obvious condition after being promised change but receiving more of the same. The time for real change has been at hand for some time. Whether Americans actually have the nerve and fortitude of their forefathers, only time will tell. Unheeded citizen complaints can only take one of two paths: reformation or tyranny.
Check out these figures:
The overall index stands at 49.3 in June, down from 54.8. That number is much worse than it would appear on the surface. Consider that the index is calibrated to conform to a 1985 reading of 100. Well, life certainly wasn't perfect in 1985, so the index being more than halved in the subsequent 24 years means what? People are only half as satisfied or confident as they were then? In any case, it's not good.
Here's the really terrifying stuff. though. The percentage of people claiming that business conditions were "good" fell to 8.0%, from 8.8%. 8 percent! Now that's what I call pessimistic. There's more: People who thought jobs were plentiful: 4.7%; people who thought their incomes would increase in the next six months: 9.8%. Less than one in ten people expect a raise by December. That's pretty gloomy, no? Or maybe, just maybe, the people in this survey, which we assume is a nice cross-section of America, are not pessimists, but realists, who have seen the government's attempts at stimulus fall flat, who maybe don't believe all the lies from the controlled media, and who may have been around long enough and been through enough to lose faith in the federal government and its promises to fix everything.
America has always been an optimistic nation, but considering the current crop of politicians (largely failures) in the power structure of Washington, it is conceivable that many people have lost their patience and are losing faith in the "system," which is clearly broken and not about to be fixed by the people who broke it.
This is not to say that Americans are becoming pessimists, it's just saying that they're fed up with the status quo, and actually have been for quite some time. Americans may also be sending a message to Washington which goes something like this:
"We don't want more debt. We don't want a $1.75 trillion deficit. We want you (the government) to tighten your belts, cut spending and trim some of the fat. We are not on board with tax-and-spend, cap-and-trade, more expensive health care and the rest of your proposed plans for us. We are not standing with you, because you don't stand for us. If you continue, we shall stand against you."
That's pretty much it, isn't it? Americans are pretty tired of the US government, their state government and their local government sticking their noses into every last aspect of their lives and taxing them into oblivion. Nobody in Washington is currently listening to the American people and there's pretty good evidence that nobody's been listening for the past 10 years. Since they're not going to listen, then why pay them tribute? We owe them nothing. In fact, they owe us plenty.
Change will come, and mostly by the actions of government. Voting obviously hasn't made an impact, so the natural progression is for people to vote with their wallets and purses, and that's already occurring. Less and less revenue is flowing into government coffers and the flow will continue to slacken until it is just a trickle. This device, known as "starving the government" will produce change because the government will be unable to fund anything but the most rudimentary programs, and maybe not even those.
Americans, realists all, will not pay taxes and government will fall. That is our history, that is our right. The second American revolution has begun.
Noting that confidence is waning, Wall Streeters quickly abandoned their "window dressing" strategy in favor of a "jump ship" approach. After the Conference Board's report, stocks turned from narrowly positive to grossly negative in a hurry and stayed down for the remainder of the session. Coupled with yesterday's gains, the Dow is up a mind-boggling 8 points this week.
Dow 8,447.00, -82.38 (0.97%)
NASDAQ 1,835.04, -9.02 (0.49%)
S&P 500 919.33, -7.90 (0.85%)
NYSE Composite 5,905.14, -57.36 (0.96%)
Internals confirmed that the turnaround was no fluke. Declining issues outpaced advancers, 3653-2712. New lows surpassed new highs, breaking a three-day trend, 64-59. Volume was very light, as has been the case for most of the past month.
NYSE Volume 1,296,750,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,064,647,000
Like stocks, oil turned around on Tuesday, shedding $1.60, to close at $69.89. Gold also beat a steady retreat, losing $13.30, to $927.40. There was some dumping of silver as well, down 38 cents, to $13.60.
Americans are neither happy nor optimistic, a fairly obvious condition after being promised change but receiving more of the same. The time for real change has been at hand for some time. Whether Americans actually have the nerve and fortitude of their forefathers, only time will tell. Unheeded citizen complaints can only take one of two paths: reformation or tyranny.
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