The desperation, both on Wall Street and in the hallowed halls of Congress and at the white House, is becoming palpable and, if the whole sordid state of affairs of our economy were not so profoundly sad, laughable.
Today, the wizards controlling the High Frequency Trading (HFT) computers, which account for about 75% (some say it's more than that) of all stock trades, managed to send the broad indices up in the morning, down a bit in the afternoon and close nearly unchanged. This is a very neat trick, devised to scalp money from day-traders, hedge funds, momentum players and anyone else foolish enough to venture into the caverns of Wall Street.
What it is not, is indicative of a stable condition in the markets. The current environment is about as unstable as it has been since the fall of 2008, when the entire global financial system nearly fell off the rails. There is the condition of the Greek debt, which sorely needs restructuring and plans have come, gone, come back, been revised, altered, accepted, rejected, sliced, diced, proposed, failed, and eventually found to be lacking. Greece will default; it is only a matter of time, as will Ireland, Spain, Portugal and maybe even Italy, Hungary and other small countries, like Balarus, which already has revalued its currency. Ouch.
It's interesting to note that Belarus took the extreme measure of revaluing its currency in light of a current account deficit that was 16% of GDP. In the US, congress is toying with raising the debt ceiling, and if it does so, will likely result in a current account deficit that's at least 10-12% of GDP. We're getting closer, and we can do it, for sure. USA - USA - USA!
Today's flat line finish was a sham. Take a look at the shattered internals.
Dow 11,952.97, +1.06 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,639.69, -4.04 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,271.83, +0.85 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,017.06, +0.67 (0.01%)
Losing stocks led winners by a wide margin, 3918-2699. NASDAQ new highs: 32; new lows: 139. NYSE new highs 21; new lows: 90. The combined total of 52 new highs and 229 new lows marks the seventh straight day in which new lows have exceeded new highs and indicates, more strongly than ever, that this downturn is going to be deeper and longer than anyone on Wall Street of in Washington is willing to disclose. A few numbers have been bandied about, like 1000 on the S&P and 10,000 on the Dow as possible bottoms, though die-hard deflationists are looking for much lower figures, rivaling or even exceeding the lows of March, 2009.
Volume was, as usual, depressed and depressing.
NASDAQ Volume 1,854,694,875.00
NYSE Volume 4,102,367,000
In deflationist terms, there was good news. WTI crude oil fell by $1.99, to $97.30, the lowest price in month. Now, if drivers can just hang on a while longer, some of the price declines may begin showing up at the pump.
Precious metals were also lower, with gold coming down $16.80, to $1515.30, and silver once again breaking below $35/ounce, down $1.44, to $34.76.
The handwriting is on scrawled across the economic wall: No growth, no wages inflation, no commodity inflation, all assets are due for another round of devaluation. Hold, wait, then buy gold, silver, tools, arable land and other desirable assets.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Friday, June 10, 2011
Stocks Down for Sixth Straight Week; Worst Since 2002
Whatever happened to the recovery? All of a sudden, nobody on Wall Street or in Washington is talking about "green shoots", improvement, growth or any of the associated nonsense that went along with the previous two years' worth of stimulus, easy Fed policy, bailouts and handouts.
But who's counting, anyway? Stocks fell for the sixth straight week, and, due to a sudden turnaround at 2:00 pm in the financial sector, the day's losses could have - and should have - been a whole lot worse. By now, the only people who don't know that we're in the throes of pure economic upheaval in its most base form - that of currency destruction - are the President (who took off early today, heading for a weekend at Camp David) and Larry Kudlow, who said last night on his CNBC show, The Kudlow Report, that he thought the "correction had run its course."
Naturally, both Larry and Mr. Obama are clueless, or hiding behind the facade of officialdom, because what's weighing most on stocks these days is the total distaste and/or disregard for all manner of equities by the general public. It should be apparent that most Americans either don't have the money to invest in stocks or have, and not liking the results, are completely out of the paper market and turning to cash, gold, silver, art, collectibles, or other commodities.
Nobody likes Wall Street's paper except Wall Street, and that's a fact well-known to anybody who's been following these things for more than the past couple of months. Wall Street paper is made up by Wall Street, distributed among themselves, and bought, sold, sliced and diced as many ways as humanly (or by computer) possible... until... there's nobody else to take the paper, and that's the condition we have today.
What other reason could there be for such a massive sell-off on such paltry, absolutely slush-fund-looking volume? The churn upwards has reversed course and the majors are now going to eat each other in a massive orgy of short-selling all the way to the bottom, wherever that might be.
In months ahead, look for blown up hedge funds, even more absurdly-underfunded pension funds and the near complete collapse of Wall Street's most-favored institutions. Some contend that the great unwind has already commenced, begun in earnest in 2007, completed in 2008 and the Spring of 2009. All that's occurred since has been a perverse show with no underlying value.
Whatever the case, stocks are no place to park money right now, and probably won't be for another few years, as the masters of the universe scramble to hold onto what little is left of the markets and the US economy.
A couple of side notes to benefit those who didn't see the carnage:
From Barron's Blog: "Financial stocks were falling in early trading, but shot up around 2 p.m. after CNBC reported that capital requirements for big banks will likely be less onerous than the market had been expecting."
That's just what we need, more leverage and easier capital requirements for the world's biggest banks. My, oh, my, what great leverage you have. Might as well make it 1000-1 and blow everything up.
Zero Hedge reports: Fed releases final POMO schedule of $60 billion.
Well, let's see how stocks fare without free money. Anybody not dreading July - the end of the Fed's slimy handouts to the banks - is living in a dream world, which would include 90% of the global population.
So, down we go. BTW: there have been other declines of six straight weeks, but the last one was in 2002. See you on the other side, if there is another side to this horrible story.
Dow 11,951.91, -172.45 (1.42%)
NASDAQ 2,643.73, -41.14 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,270.98, -18.02 (1.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,016.39, -133.26 (1.64%)
As expected, declining issues buried advancing ones, 4462-1202. Our favorite indicator showed even more trouble ahead. New highs on the NASDAQ were subsumed by new lows, 24-163. On the NYSE, there were only 20 new highs and 95 new lows, which makes the combined total the worst since the lows overtook the highs, six sessions ago, 44-258. If history is any guide - and it's usually a good one - this indicator will not turn over for at least six months, probably longer. Once either the new highs or new lows take an edge, it's generally for an extended period. For instance, new highs held sway over new lows on a daily basis for nearly two years before this most recent change.
Volume was again pathetic. Calling it light would be quite the understatement.
NASDAQ Volume 1,978,513,625
NYSE Volume 3,972,811,750
In today's great downdraft, commodities didn't fare any better, WTI crude futures on the NYMEX tumbled $2.64, to $99.29. Gold was taken down $12.20, to $1532.10, if only because of fund managers scrambling to meet margin calls. Silver took the worst of the action, falling $1.37, to $36.20 per ounce.
Putting the recent slide into perspective, since April 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 858 points, still closing in on official correction territory, soon to become bear market territory. The Dow is less than 400 points from falling into negative territory for the year. The NASDAQ is already sporting a decline for all of 2011, closing today about nine points lower than where it ended 2010. It's lost 200 points since the market top, April 29.
As for the S&P, it's 93 points down over the past six weeks and is up a mere 13 points for the entire year. Time wasted, indeed. Does anyone now think that bailing out the too-big-to-fail banks was a good idea? Had the government done what was proper - that being nothing - and allowed the banks to go under and reorganize in other mysterious forms, the global economy would most likely be booming right now. Instead, we have a global catastrophe completely of their own making which is falling down upon their heads.
A pox on all their houses. Kick a banker to the curb today. They've been doing it to us since 1913.
But who's counting, anyway? Stocks fell for the sixth straight week, and, due to a sudden turnaround at 2:00 pm in the financial sector, the day's losses could have - and should have - been a whole lot worse. By now, the only people who don't know that we're in the throes of pure economic upheaval in its most base form - that of currency destruction - are the President (who took off early today, heading for a weekend at Camp David) and Larry Kudlow, who said last night on his CNBC show, The Kudlow Report, that he thought the "correction had run its course."
Naturally, both Larry and Mr. Obama are clueless, or hiding behind the facade of officialdom, because what's weighing most on stocks these days is the total distaste and/or disregard for all manner of equities by the general public. It should be apparent that most Americans either don't have the money to invest in stocks or have, and not liking the results, are completely out of the paper market and turning to cash, gold, silver, art, collectibles, or other commodities.
Nobody likes Wall Street's paper except Wall Street, and that's a fact well-known to anybody who's been following these things for more than the past couple of months. Wall Street paper is made up by Wall Street, distributed among themselves, and bought, sold, sliced and diced as many ways as humanly (or by computer) possible... until... there's nobody else to take the paper, and that's the condition we have today.
What other reason could there be for such a massive sell-off on such paltry, absolutely slush-fund-looking volume? The churn upwards has reversed course and the majors are now going to eat each other in a massive orgy of short-selling all the way to the bottom, wherever that might be.
In months ahead, look for blown up hedge funds, even more absurdly-underfunded pension funds and the near complete collapse of Wall Street's most-favored institutions. Some contend that the great unwind has already commenced, begun in earnest in 2007, completed in 2008 and the Spring of 2009. All that's occurred since has been a perverse show with no underlying value.
Whatever the case, stocks are no place to park money right now, and probably won't be for another few years, as the masters of the universe scramble to hold onto what little is left of the markets and the US economy.
A couple of side notes to benefit those who didn't see the carnage:
From Barron's Blog: "Financial stocks were falling in early trading, but shot up around 2 p.m. after CNBC reported that capital requirements for big banks will likely be less onerous than the market had been expecting."
That's just what we need, more leverage and easier capital requirements for the world's biggest banks. My, oh, my, what great leverage you have. Might as well make it 1000-1 and blow everything up.
Zero Hedge reports: Fed releases final POMO schedule of $60 billion.
Well, let's see how stocks fare without free money. Anybody not dreading July - the end of the Fed's slimy handouts to the banks - is living in a dream world, which would include 90% of the global population.
So, down we go. BTW: there have been other declines of six straight weeks, but the last one was in 2002. See you on the other side, if there is another side to this horrible story.
Dow 11,951.91, -172.45 (1.42%)
NASDAQ 2,643.73, -41.14 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,270.98, -18.02 (1.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,016.39, -133.26 (1.64%)
As expected, declining issues buried advancing ones, 4462-1202. Our favorite indicator showed even more trouble ahead. New highs on the NASDAQ were subsumed by new lows, 24-163. On the NYSE, there were only 20 new highs and 95 new lows, which makes the combined total the worst since the lows overtook the highs, six sessions ago, 44-258. If history is any guide - and it's usually a good one - this indicator will not turn over for at least six months, probably longer. Once either the new highs or new lows take an edge, it's generally for an extended period. For instance, new highs held sway over new lows on a daily basis for nearly two years before this most recent change.
Volume was again pathetic. Calling it light would be quite the understatement.
NASDAQ Volume 1,978,513,625
NYSE Volume 3,972,811,750
In today's great downdraft, commodities didn't fare any better, WTI crude futures on the NYMEX tumbled $2.64, to $99.29. Gold was taken down $12.20, to $1532.10, if only because of fund managers scrambling to meet margin calls. Silver took the worst of the action, falling $1.37, to $36.20 per ounce.
Putting the recent slide into perspective, since April 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 858 points, still closing in on official correction territory, soon to become bear market territory. The Dow is less than 400 points from falling into negative territory for the year. The NASDAQ is already sporting a decline for all of 2011, closing today about nine points lower than where it ended 2010. It's lost 200 points since the market top, April 29.
As for the S&P, it's 93 points down over the past six weeks and is up a mere 13 points for the entire year. Time wasted, indeed. Does anyone now think that bailing out the too-big-to-fail banks was a good idea? Had the government done what was proper - that being nothing - and allowed the banks to go under and reorganize in other mysterious forms, the global economy would most likely be booming right now. Instead, we have a global catastrophe completely of their own making which is falling down upon their heads.
A pox on all their houses. Kick a banker to the curb today. They've been doing it to us since 1913.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Well, We All Knew This Was Coming
Nothing, in the world of the financial markets, moves in a straight line, so it was only a matter of time that the stock indices would cease falling and post a day of positive, "green shoots" results, and today was that day.
Call it whatever you like - PPT manipulation, dead cat bounce, oversold conditions, snap-back rally - it's nothing out of the norm for markets to do these kinds of things, and, taking a word from Fed Chaiman Ben Bernanke, it is likely a "transitory" event, like the wind, which passes on and blows in another time and place.
Even with today's sudden upsurge reversal of fortune, volume was horrid and stocks finished well off their highs, with widespread selling occurring in the final hour. That's likely because today's move was highly orchestrated by the usual suspects, with aid from the Fed (remember, QE2 isn't over yet). Bonds were flipped and turned into stock purchases, mostly in the very same names that control 80% of the trading on the exchanges. You know the names; no need to repeat them here.
Getting right down to it, after sustaining six straight days of losses, this was nothing about which to get excited, that's for sure. For instance, even factoring in today's gains, the Dow is still off a whopping 445 points since May 31, and 686 points since the top on April 29 (12,810).
Anyone suggesting that it is anything other than a one-day event should be barred from ever commenting on stocks or financial issues, in perpetuity. Selling stocks will resume sooner, rather than later.
Dow 12,124.43, +75.49 (0.63%)
NASDAQ 2,684.87, +9.49 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,289.00, +9.44 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 8,149.65, +68.30 (0.85%)
Internals were slightly improved, with advancing issues topping decliners, 3538-2116. The NASDAQ was good for 26 new highs and 119 new lows; the NYSE saw 31 new highs and 70 new lows, making our combined reading 57 new highs and 189 new lows, a fifth straight session with the lows leading the way.
Volume? Come on, now.
NASDAQ Volume 1,686,693,375
NYSE Volume 3,489,525,750
Over in the commodity space, the aberration known as crude oil futures gained $1.19, to $101.93. There is no good reason for the price of oil to be this high. A stable price of around 470-80 per barrel would be sufficient to satisfy all parties without putting unnecessary pressure on end-product consumers. If there's any one thing that will keep a slow economy from improving, it is high fuel or food prices and we have them both. Of course, the government, usually quick to impose its will wherever it pleases, does nothing about this. To put it simply, our elected officials at all levels have ceased representing the people of America long ago. In a few words, THEY SUCK.
Oddly enough, gold bugs saw right through the rise in equities and bought more, bringing the price up by $6.60, to $1544.40. Gold is still up 25% on the year. Difficult to argue with those kinds of returns. Silver was also bid higher, up 75 cents, to $37.55.
Tomorrow, the weekend. Thank goodness.
Call it whatever you like - PPT manipulation, dead cat bounce, oversold conditions, snap-back rally - it's nothing out of the norm for markets to do these kinds of things, and, taking a word from Fed Chaiman Ben Bernanke, it is likely a "transitory" event, like the wind, which passes on and blows in another time and place.
Even with today's sudden upsurge reversal of fortune, volume was horrid and stocks finished well off their highs, with widespread selling occurring in the final hour. That's likely because today's move was highly orchestrated by the usual suspects, with aid from the Fed (remember, QE2 isn't over yet). Bonds were flipped and turned into stock purchases, mostly in the very same names that control 80% of the trading on the exchanges. You know the names; no need to repeat them here.
Getting right down to it, after sustaining six straight days of losses, this was nothing about which to get excited, that's for sure. For instance, even factoring in today's gains, the Dow is still off a whopping 445 points since May 31, and 686 points since the top on April 29 (12,810).
Anyone suggesting that it is anything other than a one-day event should be barred from ever commenting on stocks or financial issues, in perpetuity. Selling stocks will resume sooner, rather than later.
Dow 12,124.43, +75.49 (0.63%)
NASDAQ 2,684.87, +9.49 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,289.00, +9.44 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 8,149.65, +68.30 (0.85%)
Internals were slightly improved, with advancing issues topping decliners, 3538-2116. The NASDAQ was good for 26 new highs and 119 new lows; the NYSE saw 31 new highs and 70 new lows, making our combined reading 57 new highs and 189 new lows, a fifth straight session with the lows leading the way.
Volume? Come on, now.
NASDAQ Volume 1,686,693,375
NYSE Volume 3,489,525,750
Over in the commodity space, the aberration known as crude oil futures gained $1.19, to $101.93. There is no good reason for the price of oil to be this high. A stable price of around 470-80 per barrel would be sufficient to satisfy all parties without putting unnecessary pressure on end-product consumers. If there's any one thing that will keep a slow economy from improving, it is high fuel or food prices and we have them both. Of course, the government, usually quick to impose its will wherever it pleases, does nothing about this. To put it simply, our elected officials at all levels have ceased representing the people of America long ago. In a few words, THEY SUCK.
Oddly enough, gold bugs saw right through the rise in equities and bought more, bringing the price up by $6.60, to $1544.40. Gold is still up 25% on the year. Difficult to argue with those kinds of returns. Silver was also bid higher, up 75 cents, to $37.55.
Tomorrow, the weekend. Thank goodness.
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