The first trading session of June started out just the way most other sessions on the stock market have this year, with an upside move that left the major indices at all-time closing highs. The momentum that has carried the stocks for months - AI, war, Donald Trump tweets - all added to the festivities, but, in the end, the gains were insignificant. Eventually, as with all bubble rallies - and this being the biggest of all - there will come a top. It could be today, tomorrow, or any day in the future.
Current indications are that stocks have not reached the apex point. The Shiller PE (CAPE) added another 0.12, closing the day at 42.78, inching ever closer to the all-time high of 44.19 (Dec. 1999). One would be well-served to keep a close eye on the Shiller PE, as it is nearly a certainty that the current rally in stocks will send it to the ultimate all-time record. Figuring somewhere around a range 47-50 on this measure would call for the top above 8,000 on the S&P, with the possibility of a slight pullback before galloping into the stock market stratosphere. It is simply too easy to buy, take gains, and reinvest without any pretense of risk or valuation. The entire market is hyped with momentum and that momentum is not about to slow down. Not before the Shiller PE reaches a fresh all-time high should anybody be considering selling and staying out of the market. Selling and re-investing profits is absolutely the trade today, and likely for months ahead.
after the close Monday, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported first quarter earnings, skyrocketing 30% on the company's biggest earnings beat since 2018. This kind of bounce higher has been de rigeur for many tech and tech-related stocks. Gains of 10% or more on earnings announcements have drive stocks to incredible heights. One most recent was Dell, which soared more han 100 points - from 318 to 321 - on Friday of last week (May 29). Nothing short of an outright doubling (100% gain) in one day is surprising in this environment.
Tuesday before the open, a few more companies reported: Victoria's Secret (VSCO) - shares up 40% on blowout quarter Signet Jewelers (SIG) - higher Q1 profit than estimated, company raises outlook, stock up 7% pre-market Donaldson Filtrations Systems (DCI) - record sales, raises forecast, shares ahead by 2% Dollar General (DG) - earnings beat, raises forecat, shares up 5%
From the looks of just these few reports, it would appear that the good times are not limited to only the tech sector, though reinvested money from profitable trades in that sector may be spilling over into other parts of the market, in particular, consumer goods, as illustrated by Victoria's Secret, Signet Jewelers, and Dollar General just today.
While the idea that shoppers are looking for food bargains might scare off some potential trades, the counterweight is supplied by the other two stocks, hawking lingerie and bling. From that perspective, the money spigot is wide open (thanks largely to a $2 trillion budget deficit in the government's 2026 fiscal year. More hits from the ever-ready-to-spend U.S. congress are sure to keep coming.
Never mind that there are two wars underway. In fact, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Mideast align rightly with the welfare/warfare national economy firing on all cylinders.
The party continues, even in gold and silver, which are both sporting gains of one percent or more this morning. Futures are pointing in terms of opposite direction, however, with Dow futures off 200 points, NASDAQ futures down 33, and S&P futures down 14 points. After Monday's high of $94, WTI crude futures are back down to bouncing around $91. Nobody is willing to panic at this point, even though much of the global oil infrastructure has been severely damaged and flows out of the Persian Gulf have slowed to a crawl.
All the same, it seems, except for bitcoin, which is getting slaughtered, down below $70,000 right after Strategy CEO Michael Saylor sold a load of the cyrpto "asset."
At the Close, Monday, June 1, 2026:
Dow: 51,078.88, +46.42 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 27,086.81, +114.19 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 7,599.96, +19.90 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 23,335.16, +42.99 (+0.18%)
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