Late Surge Takes Struggling Dow Past 14,000; Google Misses

While the Dow spent all of the day in positive territory, it only broke through 14,000 briefly at various points during the session, and actually looked like it was not going to make it as of around 2:30 when the index hung about 40 points below the psychological barrier.

Dow 14,000.41 +82.19; NASDAQ 2,720.04 +20.55; S&P 500 1,553.08 +6.91; NYSE Composite 10,194.01 +45.73

A late-day surge sent the Dow over the top, setting another in a series of all-time closing highs. The NASDAQ and S&P followed suit as a spate of earnings eased investor fears, though there still were more than a fair share of misses on Wall Street. Technology stocks carried the day, with IBM leading the way.

Among companies reporting second quarter results, were:

• Bank of America (BAC): Net income rose to $5.76 billion, or $1.28 per share, from $5.48 billion, or $1.19 per share, a year ago, though the company set aside 1.81 billion to credit losses. Analysts were seeking $1.20. The stock traded marginally lower.


• Capital One Financial (COF): Net income totaled $750.4 million, or $1.89 per share, in the April-June period, up from $552.6 million, or $1.78 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Analysts were looking for $1.68 per share on revenue of $4.07 billion. The company reported revenue of $3.57 billion. Shares were off 87 cents prior to the after the bell announcement, but improved in after-hours trade.


• Google (GOOG): The Mountain View-based company earned $925.1 million, or $2.93 per share, during the three months ended in June. That compared with net income of $721.1 million, or $2.33 per share, at the same time last year. Analysts were looking for $3.59 per share. Shares were off more than 30 points (6%) in after-hours trading


• Honeywell (HON): Quarterly earnings rose to $611 million, or 78 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30 from $521 million, or 63 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Analysts expected 0.75 per share.

IBM, which announced earnings after Wednesday's close, rose another 4.78 to 115.86 after it reported a profit increase of 12% on unexpected gross income. The stock's stellar performance was responsible for much of Thursday's gain, though that may well be offset by Google's missing the mark. Google reported after the close on Thursday, so Friday may be a rocky session, with options expiration also occurring.

Advancing issues led decliners by a 19-12 margin. New highs moved back ahead of new lows, 464-220, a sharp reversal from yesterday.

Oil closed at its highest level of the year, $75.92, up another 87 cents on the day. Gold and silver traded higher with gold at $678.10, a $4.40 gain. Silver was up 9 cents to $13.38.

On tap for tomorrow (with analyst expectations):

• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) 1.49


• Citigroup Inc. (C) 1.13


• Schlumberger (SLB) 0.95


• Wachovia Corporation (WB) 1.22

Markets Pare Gains on Profit Weakness

Earnings continued to roll out on Wednesday, with the following highlighting a heavy day of releases:

• CIT Group (CIT): Second-quarter loss after paying preferred dividends of $134.5 million, of 70 cents per share was reported, compared with a profit of $236 million, or $1.16 per share, in the year-ago period. The results include a charge of $495.3 million, or $2.58 per share, from the planned exit of its home lending business, making CIT yet another casualty of the subprime mortgage industry implosion. Analysts expected 1.35. The stock dropped 6.26 (11.29%) on the news.


• eBay (EBAY): Reported earnings of $375.8 million, or 27 cents per share, compared with earnings of $250 million, or 17 cents a share, for the same period last year. Analysts expected 0.32


• Gannett (GCI): Excluding a $73.8 million gain from the sale of several newspapers and earnings from discontinued operations in both periods, Gannett earned $289.9 million from continuing operations in the quarter, down 4.8 percent from $304.5 million in the same period a year earlier. Per-share earnings on the same basis came in at $1.24 versus $1.28 in the same period a year ago. Analysts expected 1.21


• Pfizer (PFE): Excluding items, adjusted profit fell 20 percent to $2.94 billion, or 42 cents per share, from $3.66 billion, or 50 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts expected 0.50


• Piper Jaffray (PJC): Second-quarter net income was $9.3 million, or 52 cents per share, compared with earnings of $4.1 million, or 21 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2006. Analysts expected 0.74. Shares were off 3.69 (6.72%).


• Southwest Airlines (LUV): Earned $278 million, or 36 cents per share in the April-June quarter, compared with $333 million, or 40 cents per share, a year earlier. After adjusting for fuel-hedging transactions, Southwest said it would have earned 25 cents per share. Analysts expected 0.22


• United Technologies (UTX): Earnings per share for the quarter that ended June 30 were $1.16. Analysts expected 1.15

Most of the big names offered disappointing results, and it took a toll on the overall market.

Dow 13,918.22 -53.33; NASDAQ 2,699.49 -12.80; S&P 500 1,546.17 -3.20; NYSE Composite 10,148.28 -22.08

The results thus far for companies reporting 2nd-quarter earnings have been mixed with some major misses, not a positive trend for a market that's just made new highs. Add to the sour mood of today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks that the sub-prime lending ordeal is likely to worsen, though the US economy is in good overall shape. He has his doubters, however, and signs of a significant slowdown are everywhere.

Today's trade was also somewhat deceptive. All of the indices were down more than twice their closing losses. Some serious tape-painting occurred in the last hour of trading.

Declining issues once again overwhelmed advancers, by nearly a 2-1 margin. New lows surpassed new highs for the first time in weeks, 375-229. This is a definite sell signal that's been building for weeks.

Oil continued to weigh on the market as well, with the price of crude for August delivery gaining another $1.03 on the NY Merc, to close at $75.03.

Gold moved up to $673.70, a gain of $7.80, while silver added 27 cents to close out at 13.29. There's a growing number of commodity specialists who believe the precious metals are due for another run-up on inflation concerns, though both are near historic highs and have been stuck in trenches for more than 18 months.

There may have been consolidation in these commodities as positions have been unraveled, though most of the speculators are calling for doubling or even tripling in price over the next 2-3 years. Those predictions have been around for years, and, following the movements of the metals, they are highly cyclical and they seem to be on the downside of their most recent bullish cycle.

On the other hand, the gold cycle is very long, and neither gold nor silver has yet to show signs of breaking the long term uptrend. With inflation running rampant, they are not the worst investments, but stocks have performed much better over the last year and a half. These should be only held in large quantity if the potential for a complete market crash is high, and that's certainly not the case at present.

Watch out for the remainder of this week. Any more profit disappointments may just cause outright flight from equities for the summer.

Earnings, Politics Swing Markets

For the nest two weeks, market movements are likely to be a function of 2nd quarter earnings reports, though Tuesday may have been an exception.

Of the major reports flowing from corporate offices, the following:

• Forest Labs (FRX): Net income rose to $268.2 million, or 83 cents per share, in the fiscal first quarter ended June 30, from $200.6 million, or 62 cents per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected 77 cents per share.


• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Net income, $3.1 billion, $1.05 a share, up from $2.8 billion, or 95 cents, earned in the second quarter last year. Analysts were calling for $1 a share.


• Merrill Lynch (MER): Net earnings rose to $2.14 billion, or $2.24 a diluted share, compared with $1.63 billion, or $1.63 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts sought 2.02 per share.


• Coca-Cola (KO): Profits, on a continuing operations basis, were $1.98 billion, or 85 cents a share, cleanly beating Wall Street's call of 82 cents a share.


• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC): Net revenue of $2.28 billion, or 67 cents per share for the 2nd quarter, compared with net income of $2.09 billion, or 61 cents per share, a year earlier. The numbers were in line with expectations of 0.67 per share.


• CSX Corporation (CSX): Reported earnings of $324 million, or 71 cents per share. Last year the company reported second quarter earnings of $390 million, or 83 cents per share which included a one-time 25 cent gain, so analysts were only looking for 64 cents and the company delivered handily.


• Intel Corporation (INTC): The company reported revenue of $8.7 billion and earnings per share of 22 cents in the second quarter including a tax item that boosted EPS by 3 cents. The resulting 19-cent-per-share profit figure was in line with analyst expectations.


• Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO): Net income for the second quarter fell to $161 million, or 11 cents per diluted share, from the year-earlier quarter's $164 million (0.11). Results were in line with lowered expectations of 11 cents per share.

Note that all of the companies listed above either beat or met expectations, but the overall market barely budged.

Dow 13,971.55 +20.57; NASDAQ 2,712.29 +14.96; S&P 500 1,549.37 -0.15; NYSE Composite 10,170.36 -17.82

Why? Could it be the price of crude oil, which hit a high of $75.35 earlier in the day before being hammered down to $74.02, a loss of 13 cents? Or the shifting political tides in Washington, which look to put Bush & Co. out of business in a matter of months? There's a storm brewing, and impeachment and military failure in the field (which has already occurred) are not likely to aid the mood on Wall Street.

Oil will slide to less than $60 per barrel if an end to the Iraq situation is found soon and it's looking more and more like that will be the case, but Wall Street isn't so sure, plus, the finality of the Bush administration may mean closer scrutiny of corporate governance and possibly even an SEC with real investigative and subpoena powers.

So, politics are moving the markets, even while corporate earnings are about as solid as one would like.

Decliners beat out advancing issues by an 11-9 margin and the gap narrowed again, with new highs checking in at 430 to 211 new lows.

On tap for tomorrow (company, ticker, expectations):

• CIT Group (CIT) 1.35


• eBay (EBAY) 0.32


• Gannett (GCI) 1.21


• Pfizer (PFE) 0.50


• Piper Jaffray (PJC) 0.74


• Southwest Airlines (LUV) 0.22


• United Technologies (UTX) 1.15

Gold and silver were both marginally lower. No surprise there.

The Dow Stands Alone

Another Monday meant another record close for the Dow Jones Industrials, but, while the blue chip index climbed closer to the 14,000 mark, all other major US equity indices were lower.

With earnings season going full tilt, investors took on a cautious tenor against the backdrop of spiraling energy prices and a general weariness caused alternately by the spectacular gains of recent days and the mid-summer doldrums.

Dow 13,950.98 +43.73; NASDAQ 2,697.33 -9.67; S&P 500 1,549.52 -2.98; NYSE Composite 10,188.18 -32.49

Volume was very light and all of the indices traded in extremely narrow ranges.

Declining issues beat advancers by a 2-1 margin. The gap between new highs and new lows continued to narrow, 478-193. This is indicative of a consolidating phase and sluggish overall trade. Expect to see some pullback unless corporate profits roll in very positively.

Reporting on Monday were Mattel (MAT), in line; Novellus (NVLS), beat estimates by .02; Sun Bancorp (SNBC), 0.22 vs. 0.17 EPS a year ago; and W.W. Grainger (GWW) beat estimates by .02, 1.19 per share.

A number of heavyweights are on tap for tomorrow, with expected EPS:

• CSX Corporation (CSX) 0.64


• Forest Laboratories (FRX) 0.77


• Intel Corporation (INTC) 0.19


• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.00


• Merrill Lynch (MER) 2.02


• Coca-Cola Company (KO) 0.82


• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) 0.67


• Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO) 0.11

Of particular interest are Merrill Lynch, Yahoo and Coca-Cola. Merrill will be in focus because of its position in the financial services industry, which has done extremely well over the past 3 years. Coca-Cola is a top-performing blue chip which is expected to report strong numbers regarding sales in emerging markets. Yahoo has already warned investors that they will not meet their numbers. Investors are hoping that they don't miss too badly.

Oil rose another 22 cents to $74.15. Gold and silver were marginally lower.

Stocks Plow Ahead; Oil Out of Control

Well, you've made it through Friday, the 13th, unscathed. Well, at least you've made it this far. As I write, it's after 10:00 in London, so those superstitious Brits should be OK by now. The US stock markets had a pretty good day, even after a monstrous upwind on Thursday. All major indices managed gains again, though not nearly as large as yesterday's.

Dow 13,907.25 +45.52; NASDAQ 2,707.00 +5.27; S&P 500 1,552.50 +4.80; NYSE Composite 10,220.67 +22.98

This week's substantial gains occurred in the face of dismal retail reports, with consumer spending down 0.9% for June, with some spots of positive news. US equity investors should become more accustomed to stock gains against a backdrop of a weakening US economy, as the global nature of many companies affords them lesser dependence on the American market. With globalization, the US economy will continue to become more and more marginalized until it is nearly an afterthought for equity investors.

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Life for the ordinary American hasn't improved in 6+ years, and likely it will not fare better soon.

For Friday, advancing issues were beaten slightly by decliners, as the trade was spotty and volume moderate. Likewise, new highs weakened a little against new lows, 562-164, though the tone was still heavily weighted to the positive.

Oil continued its ridiculous price spiral, rising another $1.43 to $73.93. I'm sorry, but that's just plain absurd. The price of crude has absolutely no basis in reality. It is the most manipulated, monopolized, contrived price structure in the world. There are no shortages anywhere and new wells are being found and drilled every day. The oil pricing mechanism is plain and simply a get-rich-quick scheme for billionaires - like they need more.

As disgusting as that is, gold and silver were marginally lower. After such a great week in the markets, leave it to the oil freaks to throw a wet towel on the entire event. Bah.