The roller coaster ride continues.
US stock indices evened things out on Thursday, heading higher after a huge Monday rally and two dizzying days of losses, but not before scaring the bejezus out of investors.
The Dow was up over 100 points early on, but then sunk to a loss of nearly 400 points, touching the lows of the day just after 11:00 am at 8197.67. At that point, some reasonably good news on the CPI (unchanged for September), corporate earnings and a continuing decline in the price of oil contributed to spirited buying enthusiasm, picking up stocks of all varieties - especially airlines and banks.
The Dow finished with a nice gain of over 400 points. Other major US indices sported similar upswings. Foreign markets in Europe and Asia were mostly lower on the day, reflecting the protracted volatility around the globe.
Dow 8,979.26 +401.35; NASDAQ 1,717.71 +89.38; S&P 500 946.43 +38.59; NYSE Composite 5,970.90 Up 210.94
Market internals were all over the map, just like the indices themselves. Advancing issues beat out losers, 4160-2244. New lows ranked up to 965 against only 51 new highs. Volume was impressive, at the highest levels of the week.
NYSE Volume 1,997,849,000
NASDAQ Volume 3,372,358,000
Commodities were once again showing the stresses of deflation. Oil fell $4.62, to $70.26, a price less than half of what it was just three months ago when crude hit an all-time high. Gold slipped $34.50, to $804.50 and silver fell 55 cents to $9.64, the first time silver has ended below $10.00 since August, 2007.
With general agreement that the entire planet is headed for recession, commodities are the first to show signs of strain. This is a continuing trend that should eventually spill over into finished products of all kinds, just in time for Christmas, though post-holiday sales should offer even better bargains.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
After Record Day, Some Give-Back
Following a day in which stocks rose by record amounts, Tuesday witnessed some profit-taking and a small sense of calm.
Stocks fell generally, but not by large amounts. The return to declines was, in a way, expected, and acceptable, as the Treasury announced it will purchase up to $250 billion in equity stakes of banks, including shares of Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and others.
Other government central banks around the world have already made similar investments in banks, to the tune of over $500 billion thus far.
While nobody is saying that the credit crisis is over, most analysts are in agreement that the worst may be behind us. What is still unclear, however, is how the credit freeze and subsequent government activity will affect the general economy. Consensus is clear that a worldwide recession is on the horizon - or already begun.
Dow 9,310.99 -76.62; NASDAQ 1,779.01 -65.24; S&P 500 998.01 -5.34; NYSE Composite 6,380.5298 -20.43
Market internals were mixed, but tended more toward normal than they have in the past three weeks. Declining issues edged out advancers, 3462-3049. New lows outstripped new highs, 291-74, though the number of new highs was the best showing since the last week of September.
Volume was heavy, a good sign that more investors feel confident trading in US equity markets.
NYSE Volume 1,877,556,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,936,985,000
Commodities continued to trade in mixed fashion though the tinge of deflation remains on the periphery. Oil futures lost another $2.73, with crude closing below $80 for the second time in three days, at $78.95. Gold lost $3.00, to $839.50, though silver gained 27 cents to $11.06. Silver has been buffeted about wildly of late and may be somewhat oversold.
A number of companies reported earnings during the day. Tech bellwether Intel (INTC) beat forecasts but issued some gloomy guidance. Beverage-maker PepsiCo (PEP) missed analyst estimates by 2 cents and announced planned layoffs of 3300 employees.
Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported a 30% rise in 3rd quarter profits over the same period of 2007. The company reported earnings of 1.17 per share, against analyst expectations of 1.11.
Stocks fell generally, but not by large amounts. The return to declines was, in a way, expected, and acceptable, as the Treasury announced it will purchase up to $250 billion in equity stakes of banks, including shares of Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and others.
Other government central banks around the world have already made similar investments in banks, to the tune of over $500 billion thus far.
While nobody is saying that the credit crisis is over, most analysts are in agreement that the worst may be behind us. What is still unclear, however, is how the credit freeze and subsequent government activity will affect the general economy. Consensus is clear that a worldwide recession is on the horizon - or already begun.
Dow 9,310.99 -76.62; NASDAQ 1,779.01 -65.24; S&P 500 998.01 -5.34; NYSE Composite 6,380.5298 -20.43
Market internals were mixed, but tended more toward normal than they have in the past three weeks. Declining issues edged out advancers, 3462-3049. New lows outstripped new highs, 291-74, though the number of new highs was the best showing since the last week of September.
Volume was heavy, a good sign that more investors feel confident trading in US equity markets.
NYSE Volume 1,877,556,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,936,985,000
Commodities continued to trade in mixed fashion though the tinge of deflation remains on the periphery. Oil futures lost another $2.73, with crude closing below $80 for the second time in three days, at $78.95. Gold lost $3.00, to $839.50, though silver gained 27 cents to $11.06. Silver has been buffeted about wildly of late and may be somewhat oversold.
A number of companies reported earnings during the day. Tech bellwether Intel (INTC) beat forecasts but issued some gloomy guidance. Beverage-maker PepsiCo (PEP) missed analyst estimates by 2 cents and announced planned layoffs of 3300 employees.
Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported a 30% rise in 3rd quarter profits over the same period of 2007. The company reported earnings of 1.17 per share, against analyst expectations of 1.11.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Stocks Roar Back in Huge Upside Session
If you sold during the past week, you're probably kicking yourself right about now, but there are still bargains aplenty in the market if today's massive gains are any indication.
Finally, after weeks of wrenching losses, all of the various moves and methods of governments around the globe seemed to have some effect. Indices worldwide racked up huge gains, with the US markets in line with other national indices. Stocks were up anywhere from 7 to 10% across Asia and Europe. Brazil's Bovespa Index scored a 14% gain.
The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all recorded record gains in excess of 11%, with the NYSE Composite the laggard, posting a 10.2% gain.
Dow 9,387.61 +936.42; NASDAQ 1,844.25 +194.74; S&P 500 1,003.35 +104.13; NYSE Composite 6,400.96 +590.98
European nations pledged $2.3 trillion for their ailing banks and the Bush administration plans to move ahead with the purchase of equity stakes in US financial institutions as part of the $700 billion plan approved by congress a little more than a week ago. With so much money being thrown the bankers' way, it's little wonder that everyone - from Main Street to Wall Street -breathed sighs of relief on Monday.
Market internals showed dramatic numbers with advancers beating decliners, 5890-634, though there were still 258 new lows as compared to only 4 new 52-week highs. Volume was solid, but by no means overextended, which is a positive sign.
NYSE Volume 2,164,607,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,636,781,000
While the day's gains were outsize and welcome, a sobering view of the markets still observes general malaise, with most major indices well off their highs and still down significantly for the year. With the holiday season coming, it will be interesting to note consumer spending and retail sales. Additionally, the US 3rd quarter earnings season gets into full swing this week and next.
Commodity markets were ambiguous from all the excitement in equities. Oil futures rose $3.69, to $81.68. Gold lost $16.50, closing at $842.50, while silver added 19 cents, to $10.79.
For now, it seems like the crippling credit crisis has been averted, or at least postponed. Americans are eager to get on with the November elections and replace many aspects of the federal government. What the coming months and years will bring is still unknown.
Finally, after weeks of wrenching losses, all of the various moves and methods of governments around the globe seemed to have some effect. Indices worldwide racked up huge gains, with the US markets in line with other national indices. Stocks were up anywhere from 7 to 10% across Asia and Europe. Brazil's Bovespa Index scored a 14% gain.
The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all recorded record gains in excess of 11%, with the NYSE Composite the laggard, posting a 10.2% gain.
Dow 9,387.61 +936.42; NASDAQ 1,844.25 +194.74; S&P 500 1,003.35 +104.13; NYSE Composite 6,400.96 +590.98
European nations pledged $2.3 trillion for their ailing banks and the Bush administration plans to move ahead with the purchase of equity stakes in US financial institutions as part of the $700 billion plan approved by congress a little more than a week ago. With so much money being thrown the bankers' way, it's little wonder that everyone - from Main Street to Wall Street -breathed sighs of relief on Monday.
Market internals showed dramatic numbers with advancers beating decliners, 5890-634, though there were still 258 new lows as compared to only 4 new 52-week highs. Volume was solid, but by no means overextended, which is a positive sign.
NYSE Volume 2,164,607,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,636,781,000
While the day's gains were outsize and welcome, a sobering view of the markets still observes general malaise, with most major indices well off their highs and still down significantly for the year. With the holiday season coming, it will be interesting to note consumer spending and retail sales. Additionally, the US 3rd quarter earnings season gets into full swing this week and next.
Commodity markets were ambiguous from all the excitement in equities. Oil futures rose $3.69, to $81.68. Gold lost $16.50, closing at $842.50, while silver added 19 cents, to $10.79.
For now, it seems like the crippling credit crisis has been averted, or at least postponed. Americans are eager to get on with the November elections and replace many aspects of the federal government. What the coming months and years will bring is still unknown.
Friday, October 10, 2008
US Markets Seen Stabilizing As Wild Week Ends
Global financial markets have taken steep discounts over the past week, in addition to falling values over the past year due to the unwinding of credit markets.
After weeks of hand-wringing and record declines on stock exchanges around the world, the US markets had the final say of the week and indications are encouraging that most of the selling may be over.
US markets were down sharply in the opening minutes of trading on Friday, with the Dow briefly falling below 8,000. But they quickly recovered and there was some stabilization, though the major US indices spent the majority of the day in negative territory. In fact, the Dow again touched the 8000 mark just before 2:00 pm.
In start contrast to recent days, however, the late-day trading was mostly buying rather than selling and the US averages finished with relatively minor losses. The NASDAQ, was, in fact, higher for the session.
Dow 8,451.19 -128.00; NASDAQ 1,649.51 +4.39; S&P 500 899.22 -10.70; NYSE Composite 5,704.00 -105.98
Asian and European markets finished with steeper losses, in the range of 5-9%. Traders are now routinely calling the selling "overdone" and "panicked" and some are actually advising clients to buy selected shares, though cautiously.
The Dow's final hour move was dramatic, gaining nearly 900 points by 3.40 pm before settling nearly 450 points below the day's high. Investors now seemed resigned to massive intra-day swings until there is some resolution to the crisis that has credit markets frozen, though there's somewhat of a consensus that the worst of the selling is behind.
On the day, internals were all over the map. Declining issues carried the day again, though by a much smaller margin over advancers, 3921-2659. The number of new lows was a shocker: 4341, roughly 2/3rds of all listed securities. Only 21 stocks attained new 52-week highs. Volume was extraordinarily strong, at the highest level of the past three weeks. We may have witnessed the final flushing out of weak hands and the initiation of some serious buying. There are bargains galore if one has the stomach for the extreme volatility.
NYSE Volume 2,929,366,000
NASDAQ Volume 4,203,839,000
Oil for December delivery took a massive hit, losing nearly 10%, down $8.63, to $77.99. That can only be seen as a huge positive for beleaguered motorists and homeowners who use oil for heat. Gold lost $27.50, settling at $859.00, while silver lost more than 10% in value, dropping $1.28, to $10.60. The losses in commodities are at one time reassuring, but also signaling deflation, which they have been doing since August.
With a meeting of G7 finance ministers over the weekend in Washington, any positive talk from that group could usher in a big Monday rally. Then again, market participants are still somewhat shaken and may not be ready to jump right back in straight away.
After weeks of hand-wringing and record declines on stock exchanges around the world, the US markets had the final say of the week and indications are encouraging that most of the selling may be over.
US markets were down sharply in the opening minutes of trading on Friday, with the Dow briefly falling below 8,000. But they quickly recovered and there was some stabilization, though the major US indices spent the majority of the day in negative territory. In fact, the Dow again touched the 8000 mark just before 2:00 pm.
In start contrast to recent days, however, the late-day trading was mostly buying rather than selling and the US averages finished with relatively minor losses. The NASDAQ, was, in fact, higher for the session.
Dow 8,451.19 -128.00; NASDAQ 1,649.51 +4.39; S&P 500 899.22 -10.70; NYSE Composite 5,704.00 -105.98
Asian and European markets finished with steeper losses, in the range of 5-9%. Traders are now routinely calling the selling "overdone" and "panicked" and some are actually advising clients to buy selected shares, though cautiously.
The Dow's final hour move was dramatic, gaining nearly 900 points by 3.40 pm before settling nearly 450 points below the day's high. Investors now seemed resigned to massive intra-day swings until there is some resolution to the crisis that has credit markets frozen, though there's somewhat of a consensus that the worst of the selling is behind.
On the day, internals were all over the map. Declining issues carried the day again, though by a much smaller margin over advancers, 3921-2659. The number of new lows was a shocker: 4341, roughly 2/3rds of all listed securities. Only 21 stocks attained new 52-week highs. Volume was extraordinarily strong, at the highest level of the past three weeks. We may have witnessed the final flushing out of weak hands and the initiation of some serious buying. There are bargains galore if one has the stomach for the extreme volatility.
NYSE Volume 2,929,366,000
NASDAQ Volume 4,203,839,000
Oil for December delivery took a massive hit, losing nearly 10%, down $8.63, to $77.99. That can only be seen as a huge positive for beleaguered motorists and homeowners who use oil for heat. Gold lost $27.50, settling at $859.00, while silver lost more than 10% in value, dropping $1.28, to $10.60. The losses in commodities are at one time reassuring, but also signaling deflation, which they have been doing since August.
With a meeting of G7 finance ministers over the weekend in Washington, any positive talk from that group could usher in a big Monday rally. Then again, market participants are still somewhat shaken and may not be ready to jump right back in straight away.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
PANIC: Dow Falls 678.91 to 8579.19
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the most revered index on the planet, has been bruised and battered to a shell of its former self over the past month.
On September 8, the index closed at 11,510.74. A month later - just 23 trading days - it is nearly 3000 points lower, a decline of 25.5%, much of it occurring in just the past seven sessions.
From its high a year ago at 14,250, the Dow is now down a full 40%, with the other major indices in similar straits.
While the Dow is a narrow measure of only 30 "blue chip" stocks, the broadest measure, the NYSE Composite Index, is off 44% from its closing high of 10,301.49. These are 5-year lows, comparable to levels in 2003, when the economy was still recovering from the triple blows of the dotcom bust, 9/11 and a serious, though short, recession.
It is as though the last four years never existed. Many on Wall Street are today wishing that we could go back to 1999, when the biggest concern was whether computers and clocks would still be functioning when the clock struck 12:01 on January 1, 2000.
While the Y2K scare turned out to be more hype than holocaust, there's no denying the rapid descent of stocks and the seriousness of the amount of capital destroyed over the past 12 months. It's in the trillions of dollars just in the US, and worldwide, probably close to the order of $30-$50 trillion.
Dow 8,579.19 -678.91; NASDAQ 1,645.12 -95.21; S&P 500 909.92 -75.02; NYSE Composite 5,809.96 Down 496.39
Still, most of us have not seen any clear indication in our day-to-day lives of the collapse of financial stability. People are still driving around, going to work, getting paid and continuing pretty much as normal. The damage has been to investments, pension funds and 401 k plans. Also, people saddled with debt, especially those who bought homes at inflated values over the past 4-6 years and now have a mortgage worth more than the home they live in, are feeling pinched and afraid.
It is likely, if this crisis continues and "trickles down" to mainstream businesses and the general population, that a robust round of layoffs could be weeks or months away.
The real fear now is that pension funds of all kinds - corporate, municipal and state-run - could be caught in the downdraft and unable to meet their full obligations to retirees. if that unpleasant scenario occurs in many areas, we then will be facing the next great depression.
Thursday's selling was prompted by little more than an exaggerated level of fear. While indexes in the Far East and Europe were mostly lower, the US markets were battered far beyond the levels in other parts of the world.
Market internals were once again dreadful, with declining issues outpacing advancers, 5731-771, an 8-1 margin. There were 2857 new lows and just 13 new highs. According to that measure, this is not yet over, though one has to wonder just how the downturn can be any more severe.
Volume was once again quite elevated as the panic selling feeds upon itself. One particular item which may have caused part of today's decline was the lifting of the ban on short-selling financial stocks.
NYSE Volume 2,013,890,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,989,760,000
Commodities markets fared better, but still suffered losses overall. Oil slipped another $1.81 to $86.62. Gold fell $20.00, to $886.50. Silver gained 10 cents to $11.88.
While I had expected the bottom to form around 9500, I suppose, in hindsight, that after being entirely bearish for the last 14 months, I became bullish too quickly. I am continuing to reassess my position and today must admit that further losses in the stock market will undeniably lead to the most dire consequences.
We are likely months away from any resolution to the current condition. Despite the world's governments and central banks best efforts, more bank failures are on the horizon. The next shoe to fall after that will be announcements of massive layoffs by some of the world's leading companies. Today's extended declines puts the entire state of affairs in a more tragic perception.
On September 8, the index closed at 11,510.74. A month later - just 23 trading days - it is nearly 3000 points lower, a decline of 25.5%, much of it occurring in just the past seven sessions.
From its high a year ago at 14,250, the Dow is now down a full 40%, with the other major indices in similar straits.
While the Dow is a narrow measure of only 30 "blue chip" stocks, the broadest measure, the NYSE Composite Index, is off 44% from its closing high of 10,301.49. These are 5-year lows, comparable to levels in 2003, when the economy was still recovering from the triple blows of the dotcom bust, 9/11 and a serious, though short, recession.
It is as though the last four years never existed. Many on Wall Street are today wishing that we could go back to 1999, when the biggest concern was whether computers and clocks would still be functioning when the clock struck 12:01 on January 1, 2000.
While the Y2K scare turned out to be more hype than holocaust, there's no denying the rapid descent of stocks and the seriousness of the amount of capital destroyed over the past 12 months. It's in the trillions of dollars just in the US, and worldwide, probably close to the order of $30-$50 trillion.
Dow 8,579.19 -678.91; NASDAQ 1,645.12 -95.21; S&P 500 909.92 -75.02; NYSE Composite 5,809.96 Down 496.39
Still, most of us have not seen any clear indication in our day-to-day lives of the collapse of financial stability. People are still driving around, going to work, getting paid and continuing pretty much as normal. The damage has been to investments, pension funds and 401 k plans. Also, people saddled with debt, especially those who bought homes at inflated values over the past 4-6 years and now have a mortgage worth more than the home they live in, are feeling pinched and afraid.
It is likely, if this crisis continues and "trickles down" to mainstream businesses and the general population, that a robust round of layoffs could be weeks or months away.
The real fear now is that pension funds of all kinds - corporate, municipal and state-run - could be caught in the downdraft and unable to meet their full obligations to retirees. if that unpleasant scenario occurs in many areas, we then will be facing the next great depression.
Thursday's selling was prompted by little more than an exaggerated level of fear. While indexes in the Far East and Europe were mostly lower, the US markets were battered far beyond the levels in other parts of the world.
Market internals were once again dreadful, with declining issues outpacing advancers, 5731-771, an 8-1 margin. There were 2857 new lows and just 13 new highs. According to that measure, this is not yet over, though one has to wonder just how the downturn can be any more severe.
Volume was once again quite elevated as the panic selling feeds upon itself. One particular item which may have caused part of today's decline was the lifting of the ban on short-selling financial stocks.
NYSE Volume 2,013,890,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,989,760,000
Commodities markets fared better, but still suffered losses overall. Oil slipped another $1.81 to $86.62. Gold fell $20.00, to $886.50. Silver gained 10 cents to $11.88.
While I had expected the bottom to form around 9500, I suppose, in hindsight, that after being entirely bearish for the last 14 months, I became bullish too quickly. I am continuing to reassess my position and today must admit that further losses in the stock market will undeniably lead to the most dire consequences.
We are likely months away from any resolution to the current condition. Despite the world's governments and central banks best efforts, more bank failures are on the horizon. The next shoe to fall after that will be announcements of massive layoffs by some of the world's leading companies. Today's extended declines puts the entire state of affairs in a more tragic perception.
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