WEEKEND WRAP Equinox Edition: Stocks Waver After FOMC Rate Hike; Gold, Silver Rebound; Gas Prices Soar in Midwest; Inflation Persistent

The first day of fall is officially Tuesday, the 22nd.

That shouldn't come as a shock. Summer always ends around this time of year. Fund managers will be looking seriously to close their books with gains over the next six weeks, right up until the midterms, at which point, things could get a bit more scary.

A lot of people would prefer some cooler temperatures and relief from what has been an exceedingly hot summer in many places across the U.S. Blame science and El Niño.

Stocks

The week was split between minor gains on the NASDAQ and S&P, with the Dow and NYSE Composite losing ground. Preference was seen for tech stocks, usually the most volatile, after the Fed hiked the federal funds rate from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday.

Market reaction was muted, some might say priced in, as the FOMC was widely expected to raise rates in an effort to stave off inflation. What happens at the next two FOMC meetings of 2026 - October 26-27 and December 8-9 - remains uncertain, though condition may warrant further rate hikes if data continues to suggest high prices for food and, especially, energy, as gas prices have hit the highest levels since May and are threatening to go even higher.

President Trump's war effort against Iran has been a miserable failure, one that may lead to Republicans losing control of the House and Senate in November's midterms. Wall Street would probably relish that, as split branches of the government usually results in gridlock, with neither party able to dictate policy nor pass any new legislation. The up-or-downside of the Democrats taking control in the legislative branch might result in another round of impeachment proceedings against Trump, though without a super-majority in the Senate, it migt not be worth the effort, given Republicans would be reluctant to convict one of their own, and the President would be a lame duck for the remainder of his term, though January, 2029.

More likely would be a mad scramble to find a suitable runner for president by the Dems. They have nobody with any particular outstanding qualities. Maybe they'll put up Michelle Obama or send Hillary Clinton out on the stump again. If it's Kamala Harris, she's an almost certain loser.

Disregarding politics for now, the stock market (and the Republicans) seems desperate for some kind of positive catalyst leading up to 3rd quarter earnings results, which are still three weeks away. For the interim, stocks could easily trade in either direction or simply continue their sideways meanderings.

With the rate policy decision out of the way, there won't be much on the economic calendar for the market to digest. The Chicago Fed reports on economic activity on Monday, the Richmond Fed releases its manufacturing index Tuesday. On Wednesday, China's President Xi arrives in Washington for a series of meetings with Trump. The visit will be brief, with Xi heading home on Friday.

Thursday may be the most impactful day of the week with New Home Sales and Building Permits for August and the usual weekly unemployment claims data. Friday offers the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and Durable Goods Orders for August. There are a slew of Fed speakers making the rounds during the week, so the chance that one of them may slip in a tidbit about the future of interest rate policy will be closely followed.

Probably more than anything else, even the warnings of AI doom from Anthropic and OpenAI that fell on deaf ears this week, interest rates will be driving investment decisions. Conditions in the Middle East and Ukraine will also be in focus.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34

With the FOMC rate hike achieved on Wednesday, treasuries took the news without skipping a beat, sending long-dated maturities toward multi-year highs. Attributed to those known as "bond vigilantes", the mysterious gang that bids yields higher and bond prices lower, long-term rates are poised to break out to even higher levels given the government's reluctance to cut spending as the fiscal year hurtles toward the September 30 end.

Though Fed Chairman Warsh is wont to speak out loud about the federal government's drunken sailor spending polices, there is the undertone of defiance in not just the Fed's recent rate hike but also in Warsh's reluctance to give any advance optics on future Fed policies. Warsh has the full picture and if raising interest rates won't keep the government from overspending, he might consider pushing them even higher, making interest payments on the debt even more onerous than they already are.

There appears to be at least a skirmish, if not an all-out war, between the Fed and Treasury. Secretary Bessent appears to be on board with the government's free-spending policies and only acts to keep interest rates on the long end when it is absolutely a necessity. Warsh, on the other hand, seems to be plotting a war path toward the government. If he can't convince them to rein in spending by raising rates, he might just start talking about it on any given occasion. He is acutely aware of the problem, but seems to want to be gentlemanly about forcing the issue.

In terms of spreads, 2s-10s are heading for convergence, contracting down to +25, the tightest since February, 2025. Full spectrum continues at the high end of the range, dropping slightly from last week's +142 to +137. A steepening curve often reflects markets' belief in stronger growth, higher inflation, or greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending.

Tightening in the notes from two to 10 years, suggests something different, namely tighter conditions and potential recession. The treasury curve plays the long game, so there isn't likely to be anything conclusive before the first quarter of 2027, unless there's chaos in the political class, always a possibility.

The economy seems to be galloping right along. Warsh and the Fed made the first move to get that horse back in the bridle. Time, and the government response, will tell where this is all going. Thus far, the government, most of which will be absent the next six weeks, doesn't seem concerned at this juncture. They should be.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137

Oil/Gas

Conditions in the Middle East have reached extreme levels of conflict and the war has spread to include Saudi Arabia, as Houthi rebels have escalated their attacks on the kingdom. Brent ($98.77)and WTI ($94.77) each closed out the week lower, though gas prices in the U.S. gapped higher across the country.

As long as the U.S. continues to ply military policy in the region, oil and gas prices will be unstable and probably to the high side, affecting all business and pricing of just about everything on the consumer end. President Trump, whatever his intentions were at the end of February, needs to find an escape route quickly or risk his party losing the midterms, and, with that, the ability ot direct any kind of policy.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29 last week and $4.46 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in over four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East are off the table, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now more likely than ever to lose.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.15 (+0.18)
Washington: $5.55 (0.00)
Indiana: $4.03 (+0.44)
Oklahoma: $4.02 (+0.20)
Louisiana: $3.99 (+0.12)
Mississippi: $3.96 (+0.13)
Florida: $4.28 (+0.16)
Illinois: $4.91 (+0.43)
Pennsylvania: $4.57 (+0.07)
New York: $4.46 (+0.10)
Maryland: $4.21 (+0.02)
Michigan: $4.92 (+0.61)
Texas: $3.94 (lowest) (+0.10)
Georgia: $4.06 (+0.07)

On Sunday, September 20, there are forty-five (45) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with only three (3) below the $4 threshold (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi), not including Hawaii ($5.53) and Alaska ($5.04), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 13 weeks, but now, a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging above $4.00 ($3.94-4.13) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.16 to $4.41. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Prices in the Midwest shot higher this week as Illinois saw prices rise 43 cents and the shock was even worse in Michigan, with prices up 61 cents. All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in every state on the mainland, bar none.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,888.60
Last week: $77,245.85
2 weeks ago: $79,607.76
6 months ago: $70,687.77
One year ago: $115,706.10
Five years ago: $42,707.03

Crypto remains somewhat relevant despite the Senate turning down a cloture vote on the CLARITY act this week. The act seeks to define currencies and/or financial assets in cyrpto-land, as if anybody in the real world actually cares. The danger comes in the form of stablecoins gobbling up the treasury market and reducing the national debt to an absolute laughing stock and US$ currency to even cheaper status.

And this is supposed to be good for the United States?

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.09; last week: 67.43

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90

Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63

Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24

Gold and silver made gains over the week, rebounding sharply after being take down on the rate hike news. Still the safe haven of choice for people with brains, precious metals continue to be sold at what will look like bargain-basement prices in the not-so-distant future. Fiat currencies are being debased at an ever-increasing pace. There is no other reasonable refuge for protecting wealth.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	69.99	92.00	77.97	75.72
1 oz silver bar:	69.95	82.29	75.83	74.50
1 oz gold coin:	4527.21	4788.42	4641.27	4641.04
1 oz gold bar:	4542.85	4701.28	4600.34	4583.95

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground during the week, ending at $76.01, a loss of $1.67 per troy ounce from the September 13 price of $77.68.

WEEKEND WRAP

The summer is just about over, so start putting away the beach gear and break out the boots. Markets are moving in ominous directions, with the major averages well off all-time highs and those record numbers beginning to look smaller and smaller in the rear-view mirror. The last record closes for the major indices were more than a month ago. Chances of breaking out between today and the midterms are slim, though one cannot fully ever discount the Wall Street ability to defy logic.

Stocks look to be trending sideways to lower and as long as interest rates at the long end continue to remain stubbornly high and inflation remains a problem, stocks don't appear ready to change that pattern.

At the Close, Friday, September 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,682.64, -95.40 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 26,522.54, +104.24 (+0.39%)
S&P 500: 7,650.50, +12.74 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,998.76, -90.79 (-0.38%)

For the Week:
Dow: -890.65 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: +189.51 (+0.72%)
S&P 500: +12.74 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: -332.80 (-1.37%)
Dow Transports: -549.17 (-2.66%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Bounce After Fed Rate Hike Decision Along with Gold and Silver; Tech Remains Preferred as Dow Sits in the Red

Stocks staged a broad rally just one day after the FOMC raised interest rates 25 basis points in action that seemed to be suspiciously-timed.

The one-day event moved the needle on stocks from negative toward positive for the week, though not sufficiently to get the Dow out of the doldrums. As of Thursday’s close, the 30 blue chips were down 795 points. The NASDAQ was up 85 points through the closing bell Thursday, while the S&P 500 remained down 19 points.

While it is obvious that Wall Street would have preferred the FOMC to keep rates at the prior levels or even lower the federal funds rate, there appears to be a contingent of traders and interests that could not care less.

Judging by Thursday's reaction rally, it's apparent that tech continues to lead, while stocks which provide dividend returns, such as many of the Dow stocks, are being unloaded because fixed income rates are approaching, or have exceeded, the returns on those stocks, without the attendant market risk.

Thursday also featured a meaningful bounce in precious metals as gold and silver both jumped during the day in the West and overnight into Friday. Gold recovered to as high as $4,400, and silver is holding steady around $66.50.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are diving, with only the NASDAQ, which operates under a completely different set of priorities and guidance, holding in positive territory.

Friday's trading should see a continuation of the tug of war between equity bulls and bears, though with the last two weeks providing sufficient clues on directionality, the bears appear to have the upper hand for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the glaringly obious overvaluation in stocks overall.

Thursday's run-up was nothing more than a hissy fit staged by longs to offer the impression that the market can survive anything, even rate intervention by the now-hated Fed, which refuses to offer forward guidance and the opportunity to front-run rates.

Speaking of which, the 10-year is still yielding 4.98% and the 30-year bond, 5.31%. High rates are usually regarded as anathema for stocks.

At the Close, Thursday, September 17, 2026:
Dow: 51,778.04, +316.14 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 26,418.30, +439.88 (+1.69%)
S&P 500: 7,637.76, +85.95 (+1.14%)
NYSE Composite: 24,089.55, +155.41 (+0.65%)

After the Rate Hike: What Comes Next? Wall Street Set Up for Reaction Rally and Massive Dip-Buying; Crude Oil Lower; Gold, Silver Bid

Now that the Federal Reserve has made its stand against inflation public policy via its first rate hike in three years, raising the federal funds rate 1/4 of a percent, from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, the outlook for financial assets has become cloudier.

What comes next relies more on sentiment than actual facts on the ground. The Wall Street cognoscenti, in control of most of the money flows in and out of equities, will likely brush off the rate hike as little more than in blip in the overall market function. A quarter point hike isn't likely to upend the applecart, though outside developments in the Middle East and in the AI sector might give some pause to consider the general overvaluation of stocks.

A pushback rally on Thursday is a good possibility, especially after the late-day surge on the major indices Wednesday. Bargain hunters and dip buyers will be out in force. Stock futures are higher across the complex with Dow futures soaring (+660) with the opening bell due to ring in just a half hour. NASDAQ futures are up 450 and S&P futures show a 93-point rise.

It's not surprising to anyone at this point that Wall Street will whistle right past the Fed decision, though how long the party lasts is another question. The major indices are well off their all-time highs, stocks have been down seven of the past eight sessions through Wednesday, and the questions on inflation, gas prices, and the general conflict with Iran are far from resolution.

Right on cue, yields on the 10-year note and 30-year bond have fallen and WTI crude oil futures have dropped below $96/barrel.

Thursday morning's good news probably won't offset the damage done the previous few weeks to stocks, but when the big money sees a buying opportunity, retail investors seem to fall in line with enthusiasm. One bright side is an overnight rally in precious metals, with gold and silver both erasing losses from Wednesday.

What Washington does in advance of the midterms isn't likely to have much effect on stock prices. The next big event horizon is still a few weeks off, when third quarter earnings begin to release.

It's a trader's market at this point and the general feeling - at least for today - seems to be pointing towards ignoring inflation, Iran, and just about anything that might smell just a bit sour.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 16, 2026:
Dow: 51,462.14, -630.97 (-1.21%)
NASDAQ: 25,978.42, -3.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 7,551.81, -33.92 (-0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 23,919.04, -209.42 (-0.87%)

Fed Hikes Rates, Stocks Head South; Gold, Silver Beaten Down; Dow, S&P, NASDAQ Finish Lower 7th Time in Last 8 Sessions

As expected, the FOMC raised the federal funds target rate a quarter point on Wednesday, from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00%.

Stock market participants were unsurprised, but expressed their discomfort by sending stocks lower upon the announcement, which was brief:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.

As is now standard practice by the Fed, the statement was terse and to the point, without revealing any bias toward future rate policy decisions. The Fed has two more FOMC meetings scheduled before the year's end. One on October 27-28, and the final meeting of the year on December 8-9.

The vote being unanimous, it can safely be assumed that all board participants are aligned to tackle inflation first and foremost, regardless of Wall Street or Washington's opinions on the matter. Immediate reaction to the decision sent stocks briefly lower, but rebounding within minutes, the NASDAQ actually marking the high of the day. However, the quick uptick was reversed in a manner that has become common recently. As soon as Chairman Warsh took to the podium for the 2:30 pm ET press conference, stocks began to exhibit volatility.

As Chairman Warsh answered questions from the press, the entire market convulsed, but the direction was clearly to the downside. In the short run, Wall Street finds a quarter percent hike to be hardly restrictive, but on the fixed income side, yields began to spike higher, though they remained slightly below recent levels. The general perception overall is that the Fed is acting in a responsible manner, which may not be the best of cases for stocks and longer-dated treasury maturities.

By the time Warsh was finished with his statement and answering questions - almost exactly 30 minutes - all of the major indices were in the red, led by the Dow, which, by 3:00 pm ET had dropped more than 500 points from the previous close.

With the policy statement and press conference concluded, traders set about their business for the final hour of trading, and the consensus was, like the Fed's policy decision, unanimous. Stocks traded sharply lower for the remainder of the session, with uncertainty filling the void of the future.

Thus, stocks ended lower across the board for the seventh time in the last eight sessions. Clearly, Wall Street needed more assurance from the Fed rather than a sharp kick in the teeth, which is exactly what Warsh and the FOMC delivered.

What perhaps was even more astounding was the reaction in precious metals on the COMEX. Gold and silver both fell sharply on the announced rate hike in the belief that higher fixed income yields would make precious metals less attractive, a sentiment espoused by the absolute haters of real money, the very fiat pushers who love cheap currencies. In their convoluted world, higher bond yields are the antithesis of yield-less gold and silver, when research shows, time and again, that gold and silver out-perform stocks and bonds during high rate epochs, which are normally associated with high inflation, thus producing low REAL yields. For reference, gold and silver both were substantially higher during the 1970s, when interest rates and inflation were through the roof. The same occurred through 2024 to 2025, when inflation roared and interest rates were hiked.

The momentary bust in precious metals is not likely to last veyr long. Soon enough, bargain hunters and devoted acolytes to real money will see the opportunity as gold and silver stand as the only sensible alternative to endless money creation, debt, and debased fiat currencies.

All things considered, market participants aren't pleased with the state of play. The sharp uptick in stocks in the last half hour of the session Wednesday was likely due to 0DTE options players successfully covering their downside bets.

Treasury yields rose as expected by the day's end with the 10-year note yielding 5.01% and the 30-year offering 5.35% yield.

Conditions aren't exactly bleak, but they're nowhere near rosy, either. Seven down days in eight seems to be indicative of a trend that is just beginning to gather momentum.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 16, 2026:
Dow: 51,462.14, -630.97 (-1.21%)
NASDAQ: 25,978.42, -3.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 7,551.81, -33.92 (-0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 23,919.04, -209.42 (-0.87%)

FOMC Expected to Raise Rates Today; Stocks Down Six of Last Seven Sessions; U.S. Gas National Average: $4.36

Other than tech bros. warning about AI wiping out humanity, continued drone strikes by Ukraine against Russian oil refineries, chaos in the Middle East, and U.S. gas prices at a national average of $4.36, there really wasn't much to get excited about in terms of stocks.

There is some concern in the treasury market, with the 10-year note presently yielding 4.97% and the 30-year flipping off 5.35%, but who would want to earn interest at those rates when inflation is running at three, four, or five percent, depending on whose stats you like?

That brings us to the FOMC meeting which concludes today with a rate poicy announcement at 2:00 pm ET. The consensus is that the Fed will increase the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points (0.25%), to 3.75-4.00%, numbers that have Wall Street stock junkies all lathered up and ready to jump ship.

Whether the Fed pumps the rate higher will be found out later today.

Stocks fell for the sixth time in the last seven sessions, the only day that the majors moved ahead was Friday, September 11. Touching.

Futures are higher for some unknown reason. It seems as if - with all the turmoil in the world and in finance - there would be nothing to be even remotely positive about this morning, but those slick traders in the futures market must know better, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with his asymmetrical insights.

Is anybody else sick of all the nonsense?

Money Daily will be back after 2:00 pm ET to assuage the situation post-FOMC.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 15, 2026:
Dow: 52,093.11, -328.09 (-0.63%)
NASDAQ: 25,981.57, -204.84 (-0.78%)
S&P 500: 7,585.73, -34.25 (-0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 24,128.46, -76.93 (-0.32%)

AI is Not About to End the Human Race; Oil Remains Pricey; Senate Hopes to Move Forward on CLARITY Act; Pause or Hike for the FOMC in Focus

With a FOMC rate policy decision due on Wednesday, investors traded with a timid mindset to open the week. Each of the major indices took losses for the day, though the declines were not very deep. AI-related stocks led the declines, after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested slowing the pace of innovation in the technology in a wordy warning posted on the internet.

Amodie was joined in the cuationary note by OpenAI's Sam Altman, who chimed in about AI's abilities to exceed human control. The market took the warnings in stride, without panic. President Trump chimed in on his Truth Social platform, vhiding the tech executives for being alarmist while reiterating the need for the United States to remain number one in the AI race, outpacing China.

The entire back-and-forth was little more than empty rhetoric on both sides of the argument. AI is certainly a great technological innovation, but fears of it destroying the human race seem to be mostly overblown science fiction. The models are getting smarter, and faster, but Amodei's and Altman's pleas for pacing the advancements are illogical and unworkable in the larger scheme of things. Individual companies aren't going to slow development over safety issues and China is certainly not going to pace themselves in development of their LLMs.

The markets have more to chew on these days than fears of AI becoming sentient and wiping out the human race. Policitians and generals are doing a bang-up job in that regard, with wars raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, with no end in sight for either conflict.

On the finance side, treasury yields popped higher Monday, with the peaks just before 9:30 am ET when the yield on the 10-year note briefly surpassed 5.01% and the 30-year bond yield rose other than 5.38%.

With the opening bell just minutes ahead, the 10-year yield is holding right around 4.99%, with the 30-year yielding 5.36%. These are levels that most traders owuld have considered panic points just months ago, though today's reality (and probably tomorrow's rate hike) has put a different spin into play. The riased interest rates are only going to cost the U.S. government about $60 billion a year in extra expense, and, of course, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has deep inner knowledge that will keep America from defauting on its $40 trillion debt load. He's an economic shaman, after all.

Oil prices reamin over $100/barrel for both Brent and WTI crude.

Stock futures are drfting higher heading toward what looks to be a flat open. Gold and silver continue to be beaten down, creating a buying opportunity for individuals and central banks alike.

Bitcoin got a boost on Monday in hopes that the Senate would pass a procedural vote on the CLARITY act, though Monday's gains have already been taken back. The measure requires 60 yes votes and there doesn't appear to be adequate Democrat support to move it forward. The vote is scheduled for later today.

Meanwhile, your AI assistant is eating your lunch...

At the Close, Monday, September 14, 2026:
Dow: 52,421.20, -152.09 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,186.41, -146.62 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: 7,619.98, -37.00 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,205.39, -126.18 (-0.52%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Silver Shadowing Shanghai Pricing; Stocks Lose In Advance of Expected Rate Hike; Fight Stupid Wars, Win Stupid Prizes, Like Gas at $4.29

According to the Monthly Statement from the U.S. Treasury Department [PDF]:

Year-to-Date, through August 31, the federal government has taken in (in millions) $4,845,452, and spent $6,811,043, for a deficit of $1,965,591. That means the budget deficit for fiscal 2026, which ends September 30, will be well over $2 trillion.

In August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense. With one month remaining in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago. Most of the deficit is now spent on paying interest on the debt. It has reached an unsustainable level that, if not corrected soon, will bankrupt the nation. Imagine a family taking in $50,000 a year, but spending close to $70,000 a year, paying roughly $15,000 just in interest on their mortgage, credit cards, car loans, etc., never touching the principal.

That is textbook bankruptcy. The only solutions are to re-negotiate the debt or earn more money, or some combination of both. The federal government and elected officials at the White House and in congress don't seem to be in any hurry to address this urgent issue. One can only assume that they are either galactically stupid or simply don't care. The problem is that it's probably a combination of the two, and the American public is supposed to get excited about the upcoming midterm elections, to see which party has control, when the fact of the matter is that neither party exercises any control of the budget whatsoever.

Those who have been around a while remember the subprime crisis of 2008-09, when the entire financial system was close to collapse. Back then, some 17 years ago, the national debt was $9 trillion. It's over $40 trillion today. The U.S. treasury, congress, and the Federal Reserve have managed to add $30 trillion in debt in less than 20 years, and they are adding more at a record pace.

The United States has reached a point at which the debt outstanding may never be repaid. There is no reasonable way to grow its way out of it, to increase revenue to begin trimming the deficit and the debt. At some point in the near future - likely within five to ten years or less - the U.S. government will face the reality of defaulting on its debt. Maybe not all of it, but some of it to be sure. As the congress and every president for the past 40 years has shown no appetite for reducing spending, the only alternative has been to inflate the money supply and debase the dollar, known to most citizens as inflation. It's an unreasonable solution at best.

At some point - and the U.S. is getting ever closer to it - basic necessities like food, energy, and shelter will become unaffordable for millions. Millions of people are already close to the edge or over it, unable to afford basic nutrition, decent housing, or adequate health care. Government handouts in the form of food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, disability benefits, and assorted other give-away programs contribute to worsen the overall debt and deficit problems. America is rushing headlong not only into a lost decade, but possibly a lost generation, with a depression that may last 20 years or longer.

Stocks

Each of the major indices were lower for the week, though not to any serious degree. The Dow took the worst of it, losing 1.57%, or 840 points. Stocks remain very close to all-time highs, despite a variety of worries.

Conditions in the Middle East have gone from bad to worse, with crude oil hitting price levels not seen since May. Brent futures wer as high as $110 during the week; WTI topped out at $104 and change. Soaring oil prices and gas at the pump have producers and consumers on edge.

The tripwire to a market meltdown will be met this week, when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a policy rate decision due out at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday. The CME's Fed watch tool has the probability of a federal funds target rate hike to 3.75-4.00% at 87.3%. Fed watchers are usually fairly accurate, so it appears that a hike is already in the pipeline. Three board members voted for a rate hike at the last meeting in July, so a few more may have moved into that camp after PPI and CPI readings from Thursday and Friday, respectively, though mostly in line with expectations, remain elevated.

Outside the FOMC policy decision, the major economic releases this week will be the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (Tuesday), Import-Export Prices (Wednesday), the Philly Fed, Pending Home Sales, and Housing Starts on Thursday, and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production readings for August on Friday.

Should the FOMC decide to raise rates, the impact on markets may be significant, though there's also the possibility that the narrative will include the words, "already priced in." (see more below)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35

Interest rates across the Treasury complex moved dangerously higher this week with even the shortest-term bills spiking in anticipation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week. One-month bills closed out the week at 3.93%, well ahead of the anticipated 3.75-4.00% overnight rate the Fed is expected to impose when they announce their intentions on Wednesday, September 16.

The 10-year note rose 18 basis points, to 4.96% over the week, with the 30-year bond closing out at 5.35%, a gain of 11 basis points from the previous Friday. Particularly troubling was the 26 basis point advance on the two-year note, which rose to 4.63%.

Spreads remain elevated, though 2s-10s dropped to +33 (-8), but full spectrum kept the curve steep enough at +142 basis points. With short-term maturities already proactive to a rate hike, the concern is clearly at the long end. A ten-year yield above five percent is widely viewed as too extreme, though the word is that bond vigilantes, buyers who exert pressure on the market, are pushing for yields that match the general risk, which has turned from concern to panic.

Fed Chair Warsh has a difficult decision on Wednesday, but the market is telling him he has no choice but to raise rates now. Inflation is clearly not under control, with the CPI nowhere near the Fed's preferred two percent target. The Fed must act or risk even higher prices for everything from food and gas to boots, belts and bearings.

Producer prices appear to be the more concerning to markets. When companies cannot maintain prices at competitive levels due to higher input costs, the end result of higher overall prices is demand destruction, as manufacturers and service providers are forced to either raise prices or cut margins, which is a huge negative for bottom line profitability. The outlier risk is widespread demand destruction, wherein consumers simply stop buying until prices are eased back to more reasonable levels. All of this points to a slowdown in GDP, general disinflation and a stock market that would be vulnerable to a mass exodus, especially considering the extreme valuations on stocks at present.

There's even more concern at the funding level, given the high interest costs already in place on government borrowing. Rolling over bills and notes at interest rate levels higher than those being retired only exacerbates the critical condition of the federal balance sheet. While Warsh's rate hike will surely arrive with a menacing aftermath, he appears to have no choice but to do so. The federal government's spendthrift ways have outlasted the Fed's ability to keep order in credit markets. The blame will be directed at the Fed for obvious reasons when the real bad actors are all gainfully employed inside the Washington D.C. beltway.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142

Oil/Gas

With the situation in the Middle East reaching even more extreme levels of conflict and the war - which is not a war, has already been won but still continues - has spread to include Saudi Arabia, as Yemeni rebels have escalated their attacks on the kingdom and blown up the lifeline pipeline by which the Saudis hoped to salvage their crippled oil business. Brent ($104.42)and WTI ($99.99) each closed the week at nearly four-month highs, the difference being that back in late May, prices were falling, whereas currently, they are rising.

Any continuation of U.S. war stupidity will be - and has been - met with serious resistance and counterstrikes by Iran and their proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen. The longer the U.S. prosecutes this now six-month escapade the worse conditions will become for Western economies and their populations. Inflation being the most insidious tax, energy inflation has a way of propagating throughout the consumer landscape.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.29 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in nearly four months. Peace prospects in the Middle East have terminated, oil flows remain disrupted, and the president is getting serious heat from party members concerning the upcoming midterms, which Republicans are now more likely than ever to lose.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.97 (+0.13)
Washington: $5.55 (+0.31)
Indiana: $3.59 (lowest) (+0.16)
Oklahoma: $3.82 (+0.18)
Louisiana: $3.87 (+0.13)
Mississippi: $3.83 (+0.13)
Florida: $4.12 (+0.23)
Illinois: $4.48 (+0.24)
Pennsylvania: $4.50 (+0.23)
New York: $4.36 (+0.06)
Maryland: $4.19 (+0.19)
Michigan: $4.31 (+0.31)
Texas: $3.84 (+0.19)
Georgia: $3.99 (+0.13)

On Sunday, September 13, there are thrity-four (34) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fourteen (14) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($5.06), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.82-3.99) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging now much higher, from $3.99 to $4.31. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose steadily this week, with all states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, averaging well above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in every state on the mainland, bar none.

Bitcoin

This week: $77,245.85
Last week: $79,607.76
2 weeks ago: $78,862.44
6 months ago: $71,115.02
One year ago: $115,717.90
Five years ago: $48,306.64

Still crap. Now even crappier (cheaper).

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.43; last week: 66.91

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00

Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10

Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48

Gold and silver prices declined for a third straight week on the spot market,

As of Friday, September 11, the Shanghai silver price was $72.74/oz versus a U.S. spot of $64.48/oz, a +12.81% China premium. This implies that shipping 1,000 ounces of silver bought in the United States across the Pacific Ocean and sold in China, would result in a gross profit $8,260. Netting out transportation, insurance, and other related costs (for argument, let's say $1000), one would still be more than $7,000 ahead in such a transaction. It's not outside the realm of possibility that this kind of activity is already taking place and very likely at a much larger scale.

The difference in price between China and the U.S. might be a factor in the prices for one-ounce finished silver tracked in the Money Daily weekly eBay survey. For the past three weeks, even as silver lost ground on the COMEX and spot markets, prices paid on eBay remained stubbornly high, according to the SOSMPB. This week, even as silver hit a five-week low, eBay buyers were more than ready to shell out at premium levels above even the Shanghai price.

While this evidence is merely anecdotal, it does suggest that at least some silver buyers are not paying heed to U.S. price rigging on the COMEX and LBMA. Many of the dealers on eBay such as APMEX, Scottsdale, Pinehurst, Aydin, JM Bullion, and others are successfully pricing and selling their one-ounce silver offerings (coins and/or bars) at levels upwards of $70 and higher. Understandably, eBay's fee structure adds anywhere from 10-15% to a seller's cost, but the large dealers don't seem to mind so long as they're getting premium prices.

Because of the fees doled out by eBay, dealers have to price their items at higher levels. A 10% fee on a $70 silver coin knocks the net proceeds down to $63, below U.S. spot, which helps explain why the SOSMPB has been bouncing between $76 and $78 the past few weeks. Dealers have to make a profit and buyers don't seem to mind. Anybody who has ever sold PMs on ebay would assume that the premium paid on the purchase would be at least partially recouped upon a successful sale of the same or similar items.

The same cannot be said for gold, The Shanghai premium on gold is much lower on a percentage basis, roughly $30 higher than the U.S. spot price, so prices on eBay are much less affected, though prices paid for gold have always been at a significant premium to spot and remain tat way. The difference is just not as pronounced as it is with silver.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	71.00	89.70	77.95	77.00
1 oz silver bar:	73.87	82.54	78.13	77.64
1 oz gold coin:	4484.97	4745.71	4606.75	4593.84
1 oz gold bar:	4537.97	4637.03	4579.82	4566.97

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) gained over the course of the week, finishing at $77.68, a gain of 94 cents per troy ounce from the September 6 price of $76.72.

WEEKEND WRAP

We're all out of words for the week.

At the Close, Friday, September 11, 2026:
Dow: 52,573.29, +509.19 (+0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,333.04, +251.31 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: 7,656.98, +65.28 (+0.86%)
NYSE Composite: 24,331.56, +190.92 (+0.79%)

For the Week:
Dow: -840.96 (-1.57%)
NASDAQ: -173.96 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: -61.62 (-0.80%)
NYSE Composite: -307.69 (-1.25%)
Dow Transports: -343.46 (-1.82%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Escalation in Middle East by U.S., Iran and Houthis Sends WTI Futures over $104; August CPI Reported as +0.4%, 3.4% Annual, Core at 2.4%

Stocks spilled lower for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday as the BLS released August PPI with a reading of +0.4% month-over-month and an annualized figure of 5.4% and military activity escalated in the Middle East.

While the headline and core numbers were in line with Wall Street expectations, there was no doubt about the discretion of traders, who continued the selling of equities. Also contributing to the general unease were long-dated treasury issues reaching multi-year high yields.

Yield on the 10-year note soared to 4.94% while the 30-year bond checked in at 5.36%, the gains related to a general consensus that Friday's CPI numbers would be high enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting next week (Sept. 15-16).

Crude oil futures were at the highest levels since May, with Brent approaching $110/barrel and WTI crude topping $104 overnight. As morning approached in Europe, prices eased slightly as demand destruction and a driving slowdown in the U.S. became the dominant meme.

For the week, stocks have not fared well. Through the three days closing on Thursday, the Dow had shed some 1350 points, the NASDAQ was down 425, and the S&P 500 was off 126 points.

Stock futures pointed to a higher open as all eyes turned to the BLS release of August CPI at 8:30 am ET.

The hope was that CPI would come in at a somewhat tame 0.2% for the month, which might influence the FOMC to continue their pause on interest rates, keeping the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%.

Wall Street's fears were realized when the BLS announced August CPI at a staggering +0.4%.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.1 percent in July. The index for food increased 0.1 percent over the month, as the index for food away from home increased 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Indexes that increased over the month include communication, lodging away from home, airline fares, education, and used cars and trucks. Conversely, the index for medical care and the index for motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending August as it did for the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.4 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending July. The energy index increased 16.3 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 2.7 percent over the last year.

The announcement sent stock futures sharply lower, but then rebounded as core CPI fell from 2.5 to 2.4%, the lowest in more than five years.

With the general perception that the CPI figure would surely cause the FOMC to raise rates, it remains to be seen how the cash market will respond to close out what has been a troubling week.

At the Close, Thursday, September 10, 2026:
Dow: 52,064.10, -316.56 (-0.60%)
NASDAQ: 26,081.73, -171.62 (-0.65%)
S&P 500: 7,591.70, -44.66 (-0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,140.65, -170.50 (-0.70%)

August PPI up 0.4%, 5.4% Annualized; Dow Closes Below 50-Day Moving Average Over Interest Rate, Oil Price Tops $100; Panic in the Air

Well, there it is.

The Dow Jones industrial Average closed decisively below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early April, when the U.S.-Iran war was just beginning to cool down. Now that military conditions appear to be getting heated once more, will this spawn a selloff in stocks as was the case in early March when kinetic acton was at its height?

Maybe. It's clearly too early to tell from a chartist perspective, but, then again, could the Iranians (and Houthis) be playing a little politics? Would they like to see President Trump lose power in the midterms and possibly face impeachment proceedings in the House? There's little doubt that Iran's leaders would relish that possibility. Then again, it could be merely coincidence, though those with suspicious minds may be thinking deeper than merely the midterms. A master plan may be at work for those with their tin foil hats firmly secured.

Fail in the midterms. Let the economy - and the dollar - crash, send treasury yields on long-dated maturities higher, blame the Democrats, usher in emergency rate cuts in Q2 2027, inflate, inflate, inflate. Simple. Done deal. Actually doesn't sound so far-fetched.

Whether the Iran situation or the midterms or the interest rate cycle plays out in exactly this manner may not actually have to happen for a crisis to develop. There may already exist a financial crisis that the elitist government isn't keen on revealing to the unwashed masses. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already intervened in the Japan carry trade. Oil is at three-month highs. Gas prices are killing everybody. High diesel prices are the hidden inflation driver that will eventually trigger another round of price inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed has been quietly humping the money supply higher.

See the chart? That move from July, 2025 to July, 2026 is a 5.14% move. That's higher than inflation, whatever CPI number is released on Friday. The Federal Reserve is doing more to debase the dollar and erode purchasing power than all the IIRC generals in Iran combined. Keep pumping the money supply, inflation will follow like night follows day.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." -- Milton Freidman

Approaching the opening bell, everybody got a little taste of what the CPI is likely to show tomorrow as the BLS calculated August PPI at 5.4% on an annualized basis.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.1 percent in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 5.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

In August, the index for final demand goods advanced 1.1 percent, and prices for final demand services increased 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August after moving up 0.4 percent in July. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7 percent.

That announcement sent shockwaves through the futures complex. Dow futures fell to -156, NASDAQ futures dove more than 350 points and S&P futures were rocked 35 points lower. As usual, gold and silver were punished as well. The lone standout amid the fraying in the markets was crude oil. WTI crude futures for October shot over $100/barrel as hostilities in the Middle East continued to escalate.

The major indices have spent the past three sessions in the red, starting with the August Non-farm Payroll report on Friday that sent rate hike expectations through the roof. With the PPI figure released today suggesting that price inflation isn't about to roll over and die, what will CPI look like tomorrow, and what will investors do?

Three straight down days on the majors doesn’t make a trend. That happens all the time. However, all three majors dropping between two and three percent over the last month might be considered trend-worthy. It's at least something to consider. For now, it's a minor pullback from arguably overvalued levels. Should Friday's CPI figure be worse than expected (headline upwards of 3.4%; core, 2.4%), market response is likely to be largely negative.

If stocks are entering a downtrend phase, there isn't much in the way of catalysts to stem the tide. There's the FOMC meeting next week. If the Fed decides they've had enough of inflation and raises the federal funds rate, it's doomsday. After that, the 2026 fiscal year closes for the federal government on September 30 and roughly two weeks after that third quarter earnings begin to roll. That's a month full of possible pitfalls, suggesting cautious market movement.

Friday is also the 25th anniversary of 9-11, the Twin Towers disaster. It is one of the nation's most terrifying and revered dates and one Wall Street veterans will never forget. Sentiment over the event is not likely to play a part in whatever happens in markets on the last trading session of the week.

For now, it appears that te Dow's breakdown below the 50-day moving average was indeed a strong signal. Fears of a rate hike by the Fed last week have accelerated and panic is in the air.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,380.66, -405.41 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 26,253.34, -168.07 (-0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,636.36, -37.16 (-0.48%)
NYSE Composite: 24,311.15, -161.91 (-0.66%)

Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin All Slide After Labor Day Holiday; Crude Oil Higher; Dow At Pivot Point; Why You Should Not Own Crypto

U.S. stocks spent the entire session Tuesday in the red, but really caved late in the day as tensions mounted in the Middle East and the price of crude oil continued to ramp higher on global markets. The October WTI futures contract closed out the day at $94.23, a three percent jump and the highest price in three months. November Brent Crude futures closed out at $99.36 on the NYMEX.

The Dow took the worst of it on U.S. indices, losing just over 600 points and closing right at the 50-day moving average, which is no coincidence. On August 20, the Dow 30 lost just more than 700 points, and on September 1, the Dow dropped about 420 points, both times landing right on the 50-day. Each time, the 30 industrials rallied the following day, so hitting the target is some kind of dog whistle to the assembled Wall Street sharpies. Wednesday will see whether the pattern holds or not.

A drop below the 50-day MA would send a strong signal that all is not well and further downside would be anticipated. Given current conditions, it would be probable that investors might be seeking safe shelter, but where? On Tuesday, everything was down, including gold, silver, bitcoin and long-dated treasuries, with yields on the 10-year note and 30-year bond hitting 4.81% and 5.27%, respectively. So, where to hide? Oil futures? Copper? Zinc? Cash would be the more obvious choice for most, as protecting assets becomes more important than booking profits. Making four percent in a money market, even in an inflationary environment, makes just enough sense.

Still, the degree to which Wall Street and the Trump blow hards fix the narrative cannot be understated. There's just as good a chance that markets will rally on Wednesday. After all, August PPI and CPI won't be released until Thursday and Friday, so there's still a chance to make some money before the next big data drops. All it would take is one Trump "truth" posting to move the needle.

With the opening bell dead ahead, stock futures are near the lows of the morning, gold and silver are rallying, and Brent crude topped $100 overnight. WTI crude futures are sitting at $95.70.

By all appearances, the Dow is set to break below its 50-day moving average, which would be a strong sell signal.

*****

Why you shouldn't own bitcoin or any other crypto "assets."

Today's lesson is an excerpt from BitcoinMagazine.com:

The Liquid Network said Sunday that purported white-hat hackers withdrew about 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million, from the federation wallet that backs L-BTC.

Bridge nodes were disabled, and the sidechain was paused. Other issued assets, including USDT, DePix and RWAs, were unaffected, the official account said on X.

The Liquid Network is a federated sidechain of Bitcoin, founded by Adam Back’s Blockstream. The Liquid chain issues a variety of assets such as LBTC, which it backs with BTC on the Bitcoin main chain, held in a large multisig of 15 corporate and known members. 11 of the 15 members need to sign a valid multi-signature transaction to move coins from the treasury. Before the hack, the treasury held over 4200 BTC; after the hack, Blockstream’s proof of reserves page reports a little over 207 BTC left.

The hackers withdrew 4,019.4 BTC from the reserve address in a peg-out transaction using the SideSwap Peg-out Authorization Key. SideWap is a bridge exchange and a member of the Liquid Federation. While details on the mechanism of the hack are not confirmed yet, it appears an inflation bug on the LBTC side chain was exploited by the hackers to create over 4,000 LBTC that did not exist before, and cash them out for on-chain bitcoin from the federation. Because the transaction appeared as valid, given the consensus bug, the federation members’ HSM security servers signed the BTC withdrawal transaction, worth roughly 320 million at the time.

Seriously, how much of that did you understand?

The point is that crypto assets can be created, diverted, rehypothecated, counterfeited, and/or stolen in a variety of manners, none of which are well understood by the average, or even above-average, investor.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 8, 2026:
Dow: 52,786.07, -628.18 (-1.18%)
NASDAQ: 26,421.41, -85.58 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 7,673.52, -45.08 (-0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 24,473.06, -166.19 (-0.67%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Celebrating Labor or Servitude?

“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” -- Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams thus phrased his passionate appeal to the American people to reject British rule and to defend their freedoms, in a speech to the Second Continental Congress on August 1, 1776, from the steps of the State House in Philadelphia. Pennsylvania, in the midst of the American Revolution, as Congress debated independence.

How far have we come?

On Monday, September 7, Labor Day will be celebrated across the United States. There will be parades and picnics, beer and hot dogs, and a day off for most Americans who toil for a living.

Before it was a federal holiday, Labor Day was recognized by labor activists and individual states. After municipal ordinances were passed in 1885 and 1886, a movement developed to secure state legislation. New York was the first state to introduce a bill, but Oregon was the first to pass a law recognizing Labor Day, on February 21, 1887. During 1887, four more states – Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York – passed laws creating a Labor Day holiday. By the end of the decade Connecticut, Nebraska and Pennsylvania had followed suit. By 1894, 23 more states had adopted the holiday, and on June 28, 1894, Congress passed an act making the first Monday in September of each year a legal holiday.

-- History of Labor Day, U.S. Department of Labor

Some lucky people will get paid for the day off. A paid holiday, how nice. And the government will tax their wages and tax the wages of everybody on Tuesday, Wednesday, every day. You work. The government takes a cut. Is it prostitution or slavery? No matter how it's defined taxing labor is probably unconstitutional, illegal, and the 16th amendment, which codified the income tax into law, possibly was never properly ratified by a 3/4ths majority of states and the United States congress.

Do a little research. There are plenty of sources out there. Here's a good place to start:

The Law That Never Was - Bill Benson's 1985 book about income tax and the 16th amendment.

The problem is that the Supreme Court has ruled against all arguments that the income tax is void, unconstitutional or otherwise illegal on numerous occasions. Basically, like it or lump it, Americans are stuck with it. The income tax and payroll taxes are a constant and not-so-subtle reminder of who's in charge in the United States of America.

You work, the government taxes you, spends even more than they collect on things you never voted for, and sends you the bill.

The chains of which Samuel Adams spoke some 250 years ago have not set so lightly.

Stocks

For the week, stocks ended up essentially a draw. The Dow was down, the S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite up, but only marginally. The big mover was the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which slid 1.72%.

It was fitting that summer trading ended with a dull week and a down Friday. Since June 18, the NASDAQ broke even, the Dow and S&P up three to four percent. It's been a slog. With the big traders getting back to their desks on Tuesday, along with the House and Senate, there is likely to be a considerable amount of volatility as there are many plates still spinning.

The situation in the Middle East is far from being resolved, the midterms are less than two months hence, oil has spiked to hihger levels and gas prices are near the highest they've been since the beginning of June. Inflation, especially at the retail level, remains a problem, and the decision to raise or lower or stand pat on interest rates will be decided at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. Readings on August PPI and CPI will be in focus Thursday and Friday, respectively.

It's a shortened trading week. The biggest moves will be made late unless there are deviants front-running the data.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
07/31/2026	3.78	3.80	3.85	3.83	3.92	3.98	4.08
08/07/2026	3.79	3.79	3.83	3.87	3.89	3.96	4.01
08/14/2026	3.79	3.80	3.81	3.86	3.88	3.95	3.98
08/21/2026	3.80	3.77	3.80	3.88	3.90	3.95	4.03
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
07/31/2026	4.28	4.34	4.45	4.59	4.75	5.28	5.27
08/07/2026	4.19	4.25	4.35	4.49	4.65	5.20	5.19
08/14/2026	4.17	4.24	4.36	4.51	4.68	5.25	5.25
08/21/2026	4.24	4.31	4.43	4.57	4.74	5.25	5.27
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24

Spreads remain elevated, with 2s-10s at +41 and full spectrum +145, but slightly down from the prior three weeks. Bessent's version of "operation twist" seems to be having at least limited success, for now. It appears to be something along the lines of a Broadway show that gets fair reviews upon opening, but fails to last, closing down after only a couple of months of performances. The actors go back to window washing and bartending jobs.

Bessent will be taking a back seat to Fed Chair Warsh as the September 15-16 FOMC meeting approaches. It's still more than a week off, but time will pass quickly with this week only four days. Plenty of which to look forward.

Credit risk is elevated and becoming troublesome around the world, especially in European and UK government issues. Doug Noland explains.

There seems to be a lot of background noise being generated out of the bond markets, but the signal is as yet unclear. Credit markets look a lot like ammo dumps waiting for a fuse to be lit. Things could get dicey soon, or else, Bessent and the slavish bond traders will see clear until the midterms. There's no general consensus other than "nobody knows for sure."

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145

Oil/Gas

With the situation in the Middle East reheating, oil moved to a higher level over the past couple of weeks. WTI crude futures closed out the week at $91.22, the price of crude rising steadily since August 26. Other than a spike in mid-July, oil prices are at their highest levels in three months.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.03 last week and $4.11 this week, rising to the highest Sunday price in three months. Peace prospects in the Middle East continue to be pursued, oil flows improving, but not sufficiently enough to lower global pricing.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.84 (+0.19)
Washington: $5.48 (+0.24)
Indiana: $3.43 (lowest) (+0.05)
Oklahoma: $3.64 (0.00)
Louisiana: $3.74 (+0.09)
Mississippi: $3.70 (+0.11)
Florida: $3.89 (+0.04)
Illinois: $4.24 (-0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.27 (+0.06)
New York: $4.28 (+0.11)
Maryland: $4.00 (+0.09)
Michigan: $4.00 (-0.15)
Texas: $3.65 (+0.08)
Georgia: $3.86 (+0.13)

On Sunday, September 6, there are twenty-four (24) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twenty-four (24) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($5.02), with two above $5 (California and Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 12 weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging below $4.00 ($3.64-3.86) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging from $3.74 to $3.97. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in the Midwest. Prices in the Northeast rose steadily this week, with all states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, averaging above $4.00. Gas prices overall were higher in nearly every state on the mainland.

Bitcoin

This week: $79,607.76
Last week: $78,862.44
2 weeks ago: $77,297.70
6 months ago: $68,099.83
One year ago: $110,083.63
Five years ago: $45,164.73

Despite the dramatic rise in crypto over the past few weeks, Bitcoin, and the rest of the nebulous "currencies", are still crap, only useful to criminals and governments (same thing) and for speculation.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 66.91; last week: 67.14

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 8/7: $4,401.30
Gold price 8/14: $4,432.00
Gold price 8/21: $4,661.60
Gold price 8/28: $4,504.10
Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20

Silver price 8/7: $63.80
Silver price 8/14: $64.82
Silver price 8/21: $69.01
Silver price 8/28: $67.09
Silver price 9/4: $66.82

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 8/7: $4,340.72
Gold 8/14: $4,375.15
Gold 8/21: $4,609.49
Gold 8/28: $4,454.08
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45

Silver 8/7: $63.56
Silver 8/14: $64.68
Silver 8/21: $68.96
Silver 8/28: $66.34
Silver: 9/4: $66.20

Precious metals have taken a breather the past few weeks, but so have stocks and fixed income, so no harm, no foul. As events heat up, there's likely to be some movement in gold and silver, though directionally, there's no real signal. Could be up or down. The good news is that even if gold and silver suffer some setbacks, the rebounds will be solid through the end of the year and beyond.

Keep stacking, holding, and hoping for the best. China, India, Russia, Turkey, and Dubai are the new price setters. American buyers have shown a reluctance to accept COMEX pricing as reliable. Premia remains high on both gold and silver. The GSR and SOSMPB (below) suggest buying silver at this point.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	67.56	83.95	75.91	76.56
1 oz silver bar:	72.00	87.35	77.56	76.86
1 oz gold coin:	4579.32	4780.20	4660.00	4646.18
1 oz gold bar:	4606.91	4749.89	4648.48	4643.71

Ending five weeks of advances, the Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost ground, closing out at $76.72, a decline of $2.01 per troy ounce from the August 30 price of $78.73.

WEEKEND WRAP

Hope you're enjoying your Labor Day weekend. Back to work Tuesday. people.

At the Close, Friday, September 4, 2026:
Dow: 53,414.25, -271.85 (-0.51%)
NASDAQ: 26,506.99, -77.11 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 7,718.60, -29.11 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 24,639.25, -80.95 (-0.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: -145.74 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ: +105.47 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: +6.84 (+0.09%)
NYSE Composite: +54.07 (+0.22%)
Dow Transports: -367.02 (-1.72%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

BLS Says 162,000 Jobs Were Created in August, Mostly Teachers, Waiters, and Bartenders; Gas Prices Higher; Government Economics a Sham

Just because Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is adamant about the central bank not giving forward guidance on its policies, his tight-lipped approach doesn't necessarily apply to the people surrounding him.

On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller spilled the beans, remarking that he would be inclined to keep interest rates on hold at the September FOMC meeting if the data showed inflation was cooling.

That got Wall Street's hopes up and sent stocks soaring.

Friday morning's Non-farm Payrolls for August might have thrown some shade on those prospects, as the BLS reported strong job gains in August.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education. The information industry lost jobs.

Teachers are back on the job and restaurants and juke joints are hiring. Makes perfect sense, except that teachers jobs almost always increase in august and September and there's conflicting data showing that more and more people can't afford dining out or binging at their local clubs.

The news from the BLS sent stock futures screaming lower along with precious metals. Spot silver dropped to as low as $64.79. Gold dropped by more than $100, before rebounding slightly to around $4,380.

This, of course, is all nonsense. All markets are rigged by entities behind the scenes, mostly tentacles of the U.S. government, which continues to try desperately to keep the dollar the world's reserve currency, when everybody knows it is nothing more than paper backed by empty promises.

Inflation isn't going away. Gas at the pump stands at a national average of $4.12 per gallon. Employment has been stagnant since 2021. The BLS will revise it's monthly figures, as it did with June and July:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and the change for July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.

The government just lies about everything in order to keep you working, paying taxes, contributing your labor to Social Security and Medicare black holes, all along running budget deficits of $2 trillion a year.

Not to be too blunt about it, but the U.S. economy is a sham, the stock market entirely broken and the American people are wage and tax slaves living in an open air plantation, given just enough food and pleasure (bread and circuses, as in ancient Rome) to keep them happy.

The government is bankrupt. So is the Federal Reserve.

Have a nice weekend. Monday is Labor Day.

At the Close, Thursday, September 3, 2026:
Dow: 53,686.11, +624.16 (+1.18%)
NASDAQ: 26,584.06, +366.23 (+1.40%)
S&P 500: 7,747.71, +81.11 (+1.06%)
NYSE Composite: 24,720.15, +224.60 (+0.92%)

Markets Jumpy as Mideast Escalation Drive Oil Prices Higher; Yen Suddenly Spikes; Gold, Silver Higher; Payrolls on Tap Friday

Snapping a three-day losing streak, U.S. equities put on marginal gains Wednesday while the rest of the world's major indices recorded losses. It's a ritual that's played out many times in the past. When conditions become dicey or icy, it's often America's stock markets that come in to save the day.

It seems to be working, partially, though with WTI crude oil futures climbing above $92/barrel due to heightened military actions in and around the Persian Gulf, it's doubtful any meaningful rally can be maintained.

One oddity in the forex markets that began on Wednesday was the sudden interest in the yen, with the USD/JPY pair spiking from above 160 to below 156. Could there have been another "yen-tervention" by the Bessent Treasury, though this time done surreptitiously? As mentioned in yesterday's Money Daily, there are emerging signs that something more sinister than normal operations in the world of finance are afoot. Whatever the case may be, neither the U.S. Treasury Department nor the Bank of Japan have offered any explanation.

Maybe we're not allowed to know, which appears to be the case with more than a few items these days.

Thursday's trading looks to be a mixed bag ahead of Friday's Non-farm Payroll data for August, but, after EDP's poor showing of 38,000 jobs, expectations are low, which, for the crowd seeking a Fed easing policy, translates into a bonanza for stocks.

Gold seems to have a clue, up more than $100 overnight. Silver has erased some of the losses from the past few days.

Anybody who is confused at this juncture has a right to be. Markets appear to be jumping in all kinds of directions.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 2, 2026:
Dow: 53,061.95, +295.07 (+0.56%)
NASDAQ: 26,217.83, +118.05 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: 7,666.60, +35.13 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 24,495.55, +146.28 (+0.60%)

Iran Escalation, Bessent's Twist and Flop, High Oil Prices Lead to Damage in Stocks; Gold, Silver Suffer Needlessly

Not such an auspicious start to the month of September, but maybe that was to be expected.

The last two trading sessions of August (Friday, Monday) were losers, and over the weekend the imperialist forces of the United States launched military strikes against Iran, to which the vicious savages responded with missile strikes against U.S. installations in Jordan, Kuwait, and maybe elsewhere. Most Americans will never know just how widespread the devastation has been to American bases in the region. The military industrial complex and the current administration wouldn't like that, so we have to just guess.

In any case, oil soared back over $90/barrel in WTI futures, stocks got whacked, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent forays into yield curve control have come to naught. Yield on the 10-year note is now higher than before he started his interventions, at 4.78%, and the 30-year bond is generously offering returns of 5.25%.

The question one must ask is just who in their right mind would lend many for 10 years or even 30 to an entity that is $40 trillion in debt, routinely spends more than it receives, therefore making its need to borrow mandatory, relentless, and seemingly without end?

Amazingly, there are people out there doing just that. Lots of them, but just not as many as in years past. It's a problem. On the grand chess board that is international geopolitics and finance, the United States seems to be playing checkers. Militarily, the U.S. has spent most of its arsenal fighting a war in the Middle East it should never have started. Economically, the Treasury Secretary has run out of accounting tricks. Interest on existing U.S. government debt is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion for fiscal 2026.

So, is there any wonder that stocks are down?

Besides the fact that U.S. stocks are wildly overvalued, there's ample evidence that the deeply-involved government is desperately trying to manage expectations and results, driving stocks even higher than their already-inflated values. Something more sinister than the midterm elections is driving current conditions.

At the same time, gold and silver prices have been falling over the past few days, the opposite of what usually is the case when international tensions rise. Sinister? You betcha!

Stock futures ramped higher beginning around 6:00 am ET, but, with the opening bell in about a half hour, they've eased back.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if stocks started out strong Wednesday, only to sell off later in the day. The employment picture has been clouded by a poor JOLTS release Tuesday and Wednesday morning's ADP employment report for August, showing a mere 38,000 private sector jobs created during the month.

Both of those reports demonstrate just how shaky employment is in the U.S.

If you need a job and have a job, best be nice to the boss.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 1, 2026:
Dow: 52,766.88, -419.02 (-0.79%)
NASDAQ: 26,099.77, -271.12 (-1.03%)
S&P 500: 7,631.47, -54.67 (-0.71%)
NYSE Composite: 24,349.28, -112.67 (-0.46%)

Stocks End August on Sour Note; Start September with Lingering Doubts Over Interest Rates, AI, and Iran

The last day of trading for August ended with kind of a thud on Monday.

Stocks surrendered most of their gains for the month and the major indices were down from their torrid start, which culminated on August 4th. So, for the majority of the dismal month, stocks were simply churned. The majors remain close to all-time highs, a condition that seems to be tugging at portfolio managers, itching to take profits and wait for another opportunity.

That might not be a bad idea, given recent developments in the Iran war, which appears to be another of the never-ending variety. Over the weekend, US forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island and Iran responded with missile assaults on U.S. bases in Jordan. Naturally, the price of crude oil bumped higher. WTI futures are inching towards $88/barrel.

Asian and European stocks are down across the board Tuesday morning, prompting a sell-off in U.S. stock futures. At 8:30 am ET, Dow futures were down 360, NASDAQ futures had fallen 378 points, and S&P futures were showing a decline of 52 points.

Sentiment appears to be favoring a continuation of Monday's slack trading. Without any kind of economic data or earnings reports as catalysts, stocks seem to have lost momentum in a big way.

FOMO is being replaced by the fear trade of losing a significant portion of recent gains. That, if anything, was the message from Monday and it seems to have spilled over into September.

Along with the situation in West Asia, rising yields are also a big concern, along with the nagging consensus that the Fed is going to raise the federal funds rate a quarter point at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Should the Fed do that, one might as well stick a fork in the latest rally. It will be done. Treasury yields continue to cause concern. The 10-year note is yielding close to recent highs, at 4.73%, with the 30-year also elevated, at 5.27%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent forays into the financial order haven't produced much in the way of results, only short-term happy faces. The Japanese Yen has surged back above 160 to the U.S. dollar, once again in the danger zone.

On the opposite side of the argument, Republicans are positioning themselves to retain control of both houses of congress in the midterms, clamping down on cheating, fraud and the over use of mail-in ballots in key battleground states. Democrats are screaming "foul", but nobody seems to be listening, especially the justices at the Supreme Court, which recently sided with the president.

Republicans need a stock market surge heading into the midterms, so maybe the best way to manufacture one is to allow stocks to slide a bit in September, setting up a relief rally that would fit well with their narrative. It would surprise nobody if institutions and large shareholders decided to do some selling during the month of September.

Closer to the situation, the week ahead ends with August Non-farm Payroll data from the BLS, expected to be somewhat subdued. The labor market has yet to feel any ill effects from AI replacing jobs in various industries and it very well may not. Whether AI is the real deal or not, it is still an emerging technology that will require learning and adaptation by humans, not robots, initially, and that appears to be the case presently.

The robots are coming, but it's a slow roll.

At the Close, Monday, August 31, 2026:
Dow: 53,185.90, -374.09 (-0.70%)
NASDAQ: 26,370.89, -31.54 (-0.12%)
S&P 500: 7,686.14, -25.62 (-0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 24,461.95, -123.23 (-0.50%)