This week begins on the same note as the previous one ended: with stocks taking big losses late in the day. All major indices are once again approaching their October 27 lows with the Dow Jones Industrials just 100 points away, the NASDAQ finishing at a new low (previously 1505.90), the S&P 500 a mere 2 points above and the broadest measure, the NYSE Composite, finishing the day just 127 points above the most-recent low.
Dow 8,273.58 -223.73; NASDAQ 1,482.05 -34.80; S&P 500 850.75 -22.54; NYSE Volume 5,507,580,000 NASDAQ Volume 1,885,847,500 NYSE Composite 5,323.36 Down 129.27
Investors were initially cheered about industrial production figures provided by the Federal Reserve, showing an increase of 1.3% in October. However, closer examination of the methodology revealed that September figures were revised lower, thus affecting the October numbers positively. The net result, according to the Fed, was a reduction of roughly 0.67% for the two months combined.
Also, the seldom-quoted Capacity Utilization figures continued to stagnate at the 76.4% level, suggesting that - for the time being - overall industry will continue to reman flat or decline.
Both the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data can be found here.
Those numbers caused a little bit of relief midway through the session, but Citigroup announced 53,000 layoffs, and that bit of news sent shivers through the investing community throughout the day.
Investors now find themselves in a conflicted, malignant state of waiting until a new president and congress takes over the reigns of federal governing on January 20. The current congress and lame duck president don't seem capable of making any kind of useful decisions, and the ones they have made haven't alleviated any of the stresses in the market or credit system. Even the much-ballyhooed G-20 economic summit which took place in Washington Friday and Saturday ended with only a statement of desired objectives and no immediate action.
So, stocks languish, day after dreary day. News continues to erode confidence as everything seems to be spiraling downhill without respite. The list of store closings by retailers (everybody from J.C. Penny to Pep Boys to the Gap to Lowe's) continues to expand. Some malls are concerned that following the holidays there will be an absolute glut of retail space available with nobody to fill it.
Not surprisingly, decliners beat back advancing issues by a wide margin, 4804-1832. Likewise, there were far more new lows than highs: 780-9. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 1,311,161,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,856,252,000
Oil resumed being a bad bet, losing $2.11, to $55.49. Gold was virtually unchanged, losing 50 cents to close at $742.00. Silver dropped 16 cents to finish the day at $9.33 per ounce.
As far as the eye can see upon this somewhat murky financial horizon is nothing but trouble. Holiday sales are not expected to be merry for most retailers and job losses continue to mount in all sectors of the economy. The key questions being asked are, first, where's the bottom? and secondly, how is the economy supposed to be revived?
Obviously, nobody knows the answers, but here's a couple of guesses: The bottom will be in the 6500-7200 range, occurring either in December or early January. The revival of the economy will begin the moment George W. Bush is shown the White House exit for the final time and President Obama with a new congress can get down to work on fixing the mess with green initiatives, public works programs and sensible government solutions - something this administration seemed not only incapable of formulating, but actually went out of their ways to avoid doing.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
Clearly, More Trouble Ahead for Economy
After a short-covering spree boosted stocks on Thursday, it was back to selling on Friday as news and economic reports clearly demonstrated the the US and world economy was headed for even more trouble.
Prior to the opening bell on wall Street, the Commerce Department offered a glimpse of the pain, releasing October retail sales data that showed the worst one-month decline in history, a drop of 2.8%.
On the macro-economic front, both import and export prices fell as the full wrath of deflation began to manifest themselves.
Dow 8,497.31 -337.94; NASDAQ 1,516.85 -79.85; S&P 500 873.29 -38.00; NYSE Composite 5,452.63 -263.16
As expected, there was no follow-through on yesterday's rally. Instead, investors are scrambling to get their money out of stocks as quickly as possible, even though some companies seem to be in relatively good health. Nonetheless, share prices continue to decline with no end in sight.
Internals were decidedly negative. declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5041-1378. There were 503 new lows, but only 10 new highs. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,449,427,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,273,926,000
On Capitol Hill, Rep. Dennis Kucinich called the Treasury Secretary's change in the TARP bailout plan - from buying up bad mortgage debt to taking equity stakes in troubled banks - a "classic bait-and-switch." Other members of the House finance committee (of which Kucinich is the Chairman) echoed his comments and plan on further hearings on the scope and nature of the $750 billion bailout.
Fed Chairman (and full time moron) Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed could cut interest rates once again, at the next meeting of the FOMC in December, from their current 1%. Of course, talk is now cheaper than ever in Washington, as one administration (the one which caused the problems) is on the way out the door and the Obama people are lining up for high government positions.
Bernanke's absurd concept of lowering key federal funds rates below 1% is a desperate idea designed to inject liquidity into still frozen capital markets.
That same term, "liquidity," has already been bantered about at the economic summit which kicked off today in Washington. Here we have the economic and political leaders of major nations all in one place trying to figure out how to further cripple free market economics. No doubt they will encourage more government spending and various high-sounding concepts which will do nothing except extend the now-global contraction.
Here's where we are in a nutshell: 1930. It was at this point, at the very early stages of the global Great Depression, that the government intervened in all kinds of ways. Of course, their plans did nothing. It wasn't until the mid-30s, when FDR's jobs and public works programs began to take effect, that the economy began to improve.
There's some hope that President-elect Obama and his advisors will begin to implement middle class tax cuts and public works programs that will ameliorate the condition to a degree. But, there's no question that the US and other nations are in for a long - another two to three years at least - period of economic instability in which - get this - the rich get poorer and the poor get better.
So, the dark clouds you witness hovering over the stock markets and on the news do actually have significant silver linings, if you are already poor or middle class and can manage your assets and income reasonably well. Forget stocks, forget retirement. Keep yourself liquid and on the lookout for the varied economic windfalls which will present themselves in months and years to come.
Commodities, by the way, were mixed again. Oil dipped another $1.46, to $57.60, but gold gained $37.50, to $742.50 and silver powered higher by 69 cents, to $9.49. While those gains look good today, they will likely not be sustained. All asset classes continue to decline, and the precious metals are not immune. In fact, due to various cash-for-gold schemes, there is a growing amount of gold coming into the market, and that will only serve to depress gold prices.
Just remember: everything is getting cheaper. If something you want is not selling for an acceptably low price, ask for a discount. Sellers of goods of all kinds will take less today and even less tomorrow.
Prior to the opening bell on wall Street, the Commerce Department offered a glimpse of the pain, releasing October retail sales data that showed the worst one-month decline in history, a drop of 2.8%.
On the macro-economic front, both import and export prices fell as the full wrath of deflation began to manifest themselves.
Dow 8,497.31 -337.94; NASDAQ 1,516.85 -79.85; S&P 500 873.29 -38.00; NYSE Composite 5,452.63 -263.16
As expected, there was no follow-through on yesterday's rally. Instead, investors are scrambling to get their money out of stocks as quickly as possible, even though some companies seem to be in relatively good health. Nonetheless, share prices continue to decline with no end in sight.
Internals were decidedly negative. declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5041-1378. There were 503 new lows, but only 10 new highs. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,449,427,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,273,926,000
On Capitol Hill, Rep. Dennis Kucinich called the Treasury Secretary's change in the TARP bailout plan - from buying up bad mortgage debt to taking equity stakes in troubled banks - a "classic bait-and-switch." Other members of the House finance committee (of which Kucinich is the Chairman) echoed his comments and plan on further hearings on the scope and nature of the $750 billion bailout.
Fed Chairman (and full time moron) Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed could cut interest rates once again, at the next meeting of the FOMC in December, from their current 1%. Of course, talk is now cheaper than ever in Washington, as one administration (the one which caused the problems) is on the way out the door and the Obama people are lining up for high government positions.
Bernanke's absurd concept of lowering key federal funds rates below 1% is a desperate idea designed to inject liquidity into still frozen capital markets.
That same term, "liquidity," has already been bantered about at the economic summit which kicked off today in Washington. Here we have the economic and political leaders of major nations all in one place trying to figure out how to further cripple free market economics. No doubt they will encourage more government spending and various high-sounding concepts which will do nothing except extend the now-global contraction.
Here's where we are in a nutshell: 1930. It was at this point, at the very early stages of the global Great Depression, that the government intervened in all kinds of ways. Of course, their plans did nothing. It wasn't until the mid-30s, when FDR's jobs and public works programs began to take effect, that the economy began to improve.
There's some hope that President-elect Obama and his advisors will begin to implement middle class tax cuts and public works programs that will ameliorate the condition to a degree. But, there's no question that the US and other nations are in for a long - another two to three years at least - period of economic instability in which - get this - the rich get poorer and the poor get better.
So, the dark clouds you witness hovering over the stock markets and on the news do actually have significant silver linings, if you are already poor or middle class and can manage your assets and income reasonably well. Forget stocks, forget retirement. Keep yourself liquid and on the lookout for the varied economic windfalls which will present themselves in months and years to come.
Commodities, by the way, were mixed again. Oil dipped another $1.46, to $57.60, but gold gained $37.50, to $742.50 and silver powered higher by 69 cents, to $9.49. While those gains look good today, they will likely not be sustained. All asset classes continue to decline, and the precious metals are not immune. In fact, due to various cash-for-gold schemes, there is a growing amount of gold coming into the market, and that will only serve to depress gold prices.
Just remember: everything is getting cheaper. If something you want is not selling for an acceptably low price, ask for a discount. Sellers of goods of all kinds will take less today and even less tomorrow.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Lows Retested, Big Rally Ensues
Today was the day of reckoning, as the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped to the 8000 level by mid-afternoon, but then rebounded strongly on a combination of speculative fervor and short-covering. Other major indices participated in a broad-based rally that lifted all by 6-7%, one of the best one-day gains of all time.
As usual, there was no real warning or news to spark off the spectacular, three-hour rally into the close. There was only the indications that stocks were once again falling to, or below, the October 27 levels, which marked multi-year lows on the Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P.
With reasons known only to the geniuses on Wall Street who brought us such fundamentally stupid ideas as subprime loans, credit default swaps, and now, government bailouts, today's big move is probably as consequential as leaves falling from trees in November, considering the day was devoid of any news which could be labeled "good."
Instead, the morning got off to a horrible start when the Labor Dept. announced a sudden jump in initial unemployment claims to 516,000 and the federal government released fiscal first quarter budget figures which showed the government already $237 billion in the red.
Dow 8,835.25 +552.59; NASDAQ 1,596.70 +97.49; S&P 500 911.29 +58.99; NYSE Composite 5,715.79 +395.09
Also weighing on investors minds was Intel's dire forecast for the 4th quarter, predicting sales lower by $1 billion for the world's largest chip maker, which was released after the market closed on Wednesday.
Those data points and earnings forecasts set a dull tone for early trading, which is why the massive rally should be seen as nothing more than a technical bounce. Lows will almost surely be retested again, as the economic conditions in the US and around the world have deteriorated beyond the point of desperation. Going forward, it's difficult to see how stocks can gain much ground through the holiday season and into the end of the year.
On the other hand, stocks are quite cheap compared to where they were just a few months ago. Google dropped below 300 for the first time since 2005 on Wednesday, but was boosted back to 310 by the close on Thursday. Many stocks are now carrying dividend returns in excess of 5 and 6% due to low share prices. It's unlikely, in an environment of such historically low interest rates, that these relative bargains will persist.
Market internals reflected the headline numbers, at least in the advance-decline line, where gainers outpaced losers by a healthy margin, 4739-1718. New lows, however, continued to grow, to 1416, as compared to a mere 13 new highs.
Volume was spectacularly high, which normally would be a strong indicator on such a huge upside session, though the clouds of short-selling and covering lay all across this maligned market.
NYSE Volume 1,991,154,000 NASDAQ Volume 3,038,288,000
Commodity prices were mixed, but probably more a consistent indicator of where things are heading than equities. Crude oil gained $2.03, to $59.06, recovering some of the huge losses of the last two weeks, though the trade may amount to nothing more than a one-day aberration. Oil has come down quite a bit, from a high of $147 in July, to current levels, which seem to be more sustainable.
Gold declined by $13.30, to $705.00, while silver priced 68 cents lower, to $8.80. One could not blame anyone for dipping a toe in the precious metals market at this point, especially silver, which is down more than 50% from recent highs.
Friday is likely to be another bummer for economic news as retail sales figures for October are released at 8:30 am. At 10:00 am, business inventory data comes out, and there is every indication that goods are beginning to collect dust on shelves not only in retail, but in heavier, commercial goods, as well.
As usual, there was no real warning or news to spark off the spectacular, three-hour rally into the close. There was only the indications that stocks were once again falling to, or below, the October 27 levels, which marked multi-year lows on the Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P.
With reasons known only to the geniuses on Wall Street who brought us such fundamentally stupid ideas as subprime loans, credit default swaps, and now, government bailouts, today's big move is probably as consequential as leaves falling from trees in November, considering the day was devoid of any news which could be labeled "good."
Instead, the morning got off to a horrible start when the Labor Dept. announced a sudden jump in initial unemployment claims to 516,000 and the federal government released fiscal first quarter budget figures which showed the government already $237 billion in the red.
Dow 8,835.25 +552.59; NASDAQ 1,596.70 +97.49; S&P 500 911.29 +58.99; NYSE Composite 5,715.79 +395.09
Also weighing on investors minds was Intel's dire forecast for the 4th quarter, predicting sales lower by $1 billion for the world's largest chip maker, which was released after the market closed on Wednesday.
Those data points and earnings forecasts set a dull tone for early trading, which is why the massive rally should be seen as nothing more than a technical bounce. Lows will almost surely be retested again, as the economic conditions in the US and around the world have deteriorated beyond the point of desperation. Going forward, it's difficult to see how stocks can gain much ground through the holiday season and into the end of the year.
On the other hand, stocks are quite cheap compared to where they were just a few months ago. Google dropped below 300 for the first time since 2005 on Wednesday, but was boosted back to 310 by the close on Thursday. Many stocks are now carrying dividend returns in excess of 5 and 6% due to low share prices. It's unlikely, in an environment of such historically low interest rates, that these relative bargains will persist.
Market internals reflected the headline numbers, at least in the advance-decline line, where gainers outpaced losers by a healthy margin, 4739-1718. New lows, however, continued to grow, to 1416, as compared to a mere 13 new highs.
Volume was spectacularly high, which normally would be a strong indicator on such a huge upside session, though the clouds of short-selling and covering lay all across this maligned market.
NYSE Volume 1,991,154,000 NASDAQ Volume 3,038,288,000
Commodity prices were mixed, but probably more a consistent indicator of where things are heading than equities. Crude oil gained $2.03, to $59.06, recovering some of the huge losses of the last two weeks, though the trade may amount to nothing more than a one-day aberration. Oil has come down quite a bit, from a high of $147 in July, to current levels, which seem to be more sustainable.
Gold declined by $13.30, to $705.00, while silver priced 68 cents lower, to $8.80. One could not blame anyone for dipping a toe in the precious metals market at this point, especially silver, which is down more than 50% from recent highs.
Friday is likely to be another bummer for economic news as retail sales figures for October are released at 8:30 am. At 10:00 am, business inventory data comes out, and there is every indication that goods are beginning to collect dust on shelves not only in retail, but in heavier, commercial goods, as well.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Crash Part Two: Retest Lows and Go Lower
Stocks continued their decline on Wednesday, a pattern that is retracing the meteoric rise from October 27 to November 4, which saw the Dow rise by 1450 points in just six sessions. At the close today, the Dow has erased all but 107 points of that gain - all in just another six sessions.
Volatility, anyone?
What's occurring in the markets is simply the readjustment that comes after decades of credit creation and now, the resulting collapse of the economic forces that find the increased money flows to be unsustainable.
Over the past 20 years, the US, and to a larger part, the world, economy was blown out of proportion by easy money via various central banking maneuvers. Now, those same central bankers are scrambling to keep the level of money flow intact (impossible) and the conditional economies on a growth path (also impossible).
The natural development of a monetary implosion which we are now witnessing is probably something to be very afraid of, if you are on a career path, have a high-income job (or any kind of job for that matter), or have investments in stocks that were earmarked for retirement, college or some future planned event.
Your money is quickly evaporating before your eyes while central bankers continue to create money out of thin air which is also predestined to evaporate. We are now in the second phase of an historic market crash - in slow motion - where investors re-evaluate all positions and asset values continue to decline. And they will continue to decline for some time, until world governments discontinue their meddling in what used to be free markets.
If, on the other hand, you are poor, but without any severe debt or health issues, you will be comparatively better off if only because everything - from gas to clothes to cars to food to housing - will continue to become more and more affordable, assuming, of course, that your pittance of a salary or income remains the same.
Dow 8,282.66 -411.30; NASDAQ 1,499.21 -81.69; S&P 500 852.30 -46.65; NYSE Composite 5,320.70 -313.67
Call it what you will, this recession, depression, adjustment is going to last longer than anyone - including myself - had planned. Some otherwise sensible economists are calling for improvement by the second half of 2009, or, in other words, a year from now. That's being overly optimistic, in my view. The extent of the damage from fast money - both in its easy credit form and now the rapid disappearing of same - is likely to be more severe than almost anybody can imagine.
On the day, stocks were hammered across the board. Declining issues beat out advancers by the widest margin of the week (and Monday and Tuesday were fairly large gaps), 5754-735, an 8-1 ratio. New lows expanded the distance between themselves and new highs to 1120-11. All this data is telling us that the retest of the October 27 lows are on pace and continuing.
Volume increased slightly, for the second straight day, setting up for more declines on higher volume as the week winds down.
NYSE Volume 1,455,420,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,184,735,000
Commodities took another turn for the worse, as they should, keeping in line with the general theme of declining asset values. Crude oil for December delivery fell another 5%, by $3.17, to a two-year low of $56.16. Gold lost $14.50, to $718.30 and silver dropped 33 cents to $9.48.
Outgoing Treasury Secretary Paulson made some statements today which confirmed that he has had and continues to have no clue of what he is doing or has already done.
This statement, ""And to adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us," says it all.
That $750 billion bailout, or TARP, as those on Capitol Hill like to call it, is a complete and utter failure thus far. As many already understand, throwing more money at failing or already failed institutions or businesses just exacerbates the problem by rewarding bad behavior.
Free markets require free thinking and the freedom of markets to destroy businesses which are no longer necessary, competitive or otherwise functional. Government meddling will only make matters worse, which we're about to find out, again.
Volatility, anyone?
What's occurring in the markets is simply the readjustment that comes after decades of credit creation and now, the resulting collapse of the economic forces that find the increased money flows to be unsustainable.
Over the past 20 years, the US, and to a larger part, the world, economy was blown out of proportion by easy money via various central banking maneuvers. Now, those same central bankers are scrambling to keep the level of money flow intact (impossible) and the conditional economies on a growth path (also impossible).
The natural development of a monetary implosion which we are now witnessing is probably something to be very afraid of, if you are on a career path, have a high-income job (or any kind of job for that matter), or have investments in stocks that were earmarked for retirement, college or some future planned event.
Your money is quickly evaporating before your eyes while central bankers continue to create money out of thin air which is also predestined to evaporate. We are now in the second phase of an historic market crash - in slow motion - where investors re-evaluate all positions and asset values continue to decline. And they will continue to decline for some time, until world governments discontinue their meddling in what used to be free markets.
If, on the other hand, you are poor, but without any severe debt or health issues, you will be comparatively better off if only because everything - from gas to clothes to cars to food to housing - will continue to become more and more affordable, assuming, of course, that your pittance of a salary or income remains the same.
Dow 8,282.66 -411.30; NASDAQ 1,499.21 -81.69; S&P 500 852.30 -46.65; NYSE Composite 5,320.70 -313.67
Call it what you will, this recession, depression, adjustment is going to last longer than anyone - including myself - had planned. Some otherwise sensible economists are calling for improvement by the second half of 2009, or, in other words, a year from now. That's being overly optimistic, in my view. The extent of the damage from fast money - both in its easy credit form and now the rapid disappearing of same - is likely to be more severe than almost anybody can imagine.
On the day, stocks were hammered across the board. Declining issues beat out advancers by the widest margin of the week (and Monday and Tuesday were fairly large gaps), 5754-735, an 8-1 ratio. New lows expanded the distance between themselves and new highs to 1120-11. All this data is telling us that the retest of the October 27 lows are on pace and continuing.
Volume increased slightly, for the second straight day, setting up for more declines on higher volume as the week winds down.
NYSE Volume 1,455,420,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,184,735,000
Commodities took another turn for the worse, as they should, keeping in line with the general theme of declining asset values. Crude oil for December delivery fell another 5%, by $3.17, to a two-year low of $56.16. Gold lost $14.50, to $718.30 and silver dropped 33 cents to $9.48.
Outgoing Treasury Secretary Paulson made some statements today which confirmed that he has had and continues to have no clue of what he is doing or has already done.
This statement, ""And to adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us," says it all.
That $750 billion bailout, or TARP, as those on Capitol Hill like to call it, is a complete and utter failure thus far. As many already understand, throwing more money at failing or already failed institutions or businesses just exacerbates the problem by rewarding bad behavior.
Free markets require free thinking and the freedom of markets to destroy businesses which are no longer necessary, competitive or otherwise functional. Government meddling will only make matters worse, which we're about to find out, again.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Race to the Bottom
Stocks continued on their inexorable grind back towards recent lows on Tuesday, sending the major indices to their fourth loss in the last five sessions. Only a mid-afternoon rally kept stocks from sinking even further.
The day didn't offer any huge surprises, just the usual assortment of downbeat economic news and jitters over the rapid decline in consumer spending. The good news - if it can be called that - is that retailers are offering unprecedented pre-holiday discounts on everything from socks to CDs following unusually soft spending in October.
Dow 8,693.96 -176.58; NASDAQ 1,580.90 -35.84; S&P 500 898.95 -20.26; NYSE Composite 5,634.37 -167.68
On the day, declining issues outpaced advancers by a widening margin, 5001-1395. New lows continued their domination over new highs, also by a growing margin, 700-15. Both of those data sets indicate that the market is still fundamentally weak and subject to further downdrafts. Without a solid bottom in place, stock could continue to languish for some time. Volume was moderate, a little better than Monday, but nothing to either dissuade or encourage investors.
NYSE Volume 1,226,731,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,935,806,000
Oil took another hit on Tuesday, losing $3.08, to $59.33. It was the first time oil has closed below $60 on the NYMerc in nearly two years. The metals followed the trend, with gold down $13.70, to $732.80, and silver losing 42 cents to $9.81. As has been mentioned numerous times here, everything is going to get cheaper. The trick, for most Americans, is to hold onto whatever job they may have and seek out bargains for essentials.
While retailers are likely to have a very poor holiday season, individuals and families, for the most part, will enjoy a somewhat sober season and gifts that won't put a dent in their budgets. Those who have ready cash should fare quite well during the downturn, with their fortunes improving the longer the slump continues.
There was some news in the banking sector as Citigroup announced a plan to keep people in their homes, canceling foreclosure plans via mortgage modifications for roughly 500,000 home owners. American Express received approval to become a commercial bank, which will allow it to tap into short-term loans (and maybe a bite or two from the bailout brunch) from the Federal Reserve.
How hard one is affected by economic conditions will vary widely by region and employment. The Northeast seems to be the least affected, as the mortgage meltdown was largely an event outside the region. People in the West, South and Midwest are going to suffer the most, as incomes stagnate, jobs disappear and the fallout from collapsing home prices brings down everything around it.
One thing is becoming more and more clear by the day. The weight of this recession is not going to end with the consumer, but with state and local governments, which are being forced into nearly illiquid circumstances as property tax bases shrink along with all other forms of revenue, especially income and sales taxes. The likelihood of mass layoffs of municipal employees becomes greater with each passing day. Widespread layoffs of public employees could, in fact, turn this recession into a long-lasting depression with unemployment hovering between 12 and 15% of the work force and continued sluggishness throughout the economy.
As the cold winds begin to blow across much of the nation, the feeling is that there's little to stop the surging wave of layoffs, spending cuts and morbid economic circumstances.
The day didn't offer any huge surprises, just the usual assortment of downbeat economic news and jitters over the rapid decline in consumer spending. The good news - if it can be called that - is that retailers are offering unprecedented pre-holiday discounts on everything from socks to CDs following unusually soft spending in October.
Dow 8,693.96 -176.58; NASDAQ 1,580.90 -35.84; S&P 500 898.95 -20.26; NYSE Composite 5,634.37 -167.68
On the day, declining issues outpaced advancers by a widening margin, 5001-1395. New lows continued their domination over new highs, also by a growing margin, 700-15. Both of those data sets indicate that the market is still fundamentally weak and subject to further downdrafts. Without a solid bottom in place, stock could continue to languish for some time. Volume was moderate, a little better than Monday, but nothing to either dissuade or encourage investors.
NYSE Volume 1,226,731,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,935,806,000
Oil took another hit on Tuesday, losing $3.08, to $59.33. It was the first time oil has closed below $60 on the NYMerc in nearly two years. The metals followed the trend, with gold down $13.70, to $732.80, and silver losing 42 cents to $9.81. As has been mentioned numerous times here, everything is going to get cheaper. The trick, for most Americans, is to hold onto whatever job they may have and seek out bargains for essentials.
While retailers are likely to have a very poor holiday season, individuals and families, for the most part, will enjoy a somewhat sober season and gifts that won't put a dent in their budgets. Those who have ready cash should fare quite well during the downturn, with their fortunes improving the longer the slump continues.
There was some news in the banking sector as Citigroup announced a plan to keep people in their homes, canceling foreclosure plans via mortgage modifications for roughly 500,000 home owners. American Express received approval to become a commercial bank, which will allow it to tap into short-term loans (and maybe a bite or two from the bailout brunch) from the Federal Reserve.
How hard one is affected by economic conditions will vary widely by region and employment. The Northeast seems to be the least affected, as the mortgage meltdown was largely an event outside the region. People in the West, South and Midwest are going to suffer the most, as incomes stagnate, jobs disappear and the fallout from collapsing home prices brings down everything around it.
One thing is becoming more and more clear by the day. The weight of this recession is not going to end with the consumer, but with state and local governments, which are being forced into nearly illiquid circumstances as property tax bases shrink along with all other forms of revenue, especially income and sales taxes. The likelihood of mass layoffs of municipal employees becomes greater with each passing day. Widespread layoffs of public employees could, in fact, turn this recession into a long-lasting depression with unemployment hovering between 12 and 15% of the work force and continued sluggishness throughout the economy.
As the cold winds begin to blow across much of the nation, the feeling is that there's little to stop the surging wave of layoffs, spending cuts and morbid economic circumstances.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
