OK, it appears President Trump is ready to declare victory in a war that the U.S. actually lost, and not by a little, by a lot.
The somewhat cloudy objectives of the military assault on Iran - some of which were dreamt up after the bombs and missiles started flaying - were, in no particular rational order, regime change, destruction of Iran's navy and missile capabilities, assuring that Iran will never be able to produce a nuclear weapon, and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
13 regional military bases, over $5 billion in anti-missile defense technology, two aircraft carriers, countless (because the War Department refuses to tell us) drones, jets, and casualties later, the United States and Israel have accomplished... wait for it...
Destruction of Iran's aging and mostly obsolete navy.
That's it.
If, by regime change, the U.S. intention was to replace the Ayatollah with a governent friendlier to U.S. interests: FAIL
Destroying Iran's missile capabilities: FAIL
Assuring that Iran will never be able to produce a nuclear weapon: FAIL
Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open: FAIL.
The U.S. killed off the only man keeping Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons capability. Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei had issued a fatwa outlawing Iran fro developing a nuclear weapon as far back as the 1990s. Killing him opened the door to more hard-line realists in the government. Iran's missile capabilities have been harmed, no doubt, though most estimates suggest they have been put back by maybe 25-35%. They are still firing off steady rounds of missiles and drones, while making more of them. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to all traffic except from nations the Iranians consider "friendly."
For all the posturing and posing and actual effort, President Trump can claim all the victories he likes, but the truth of the matter is that Iran kicked the ass of the United States and it's not yet done with doing the same to Israel. And, this was no ordinary ass-kicking. After just the first week, Iran had successfully backed the USS Abraham Lincoln out of theater. Whether it was hit by missiles or not isn't really worth arguing, though it probably was. The point is that Iran forced Trump's "armada" to move out of an area in which it could be operationally effective. Also in the first week, Iran neutralized much of the U.S. and Israel's defensive capabilities and badly damaged all the U.S. bases located in GCC nations, 13 of which the New York Times described as "uninhabitable."
Now, perhaps the statements made by Trump over the weekend and past few days might be a bluff. After all, thousands of U.S. troops and gear are steaming their way towards the Gulf, some having already arrived. People in the Pentagon are still considering a ground attack or taking of Kharg Island, a concept so irredeemably insane that it does not deserve mention. It would accomplish nothing.
Trump's best move with these new troops would be to turn them right around and send them back home or back to whatever outposts they were previously manning, because they're only going to end up as cannon fodder in the Middle East. Somebody, somewhere, caught the President's ear (or the ear of whoever is actually calling the shots) and told him of the ongoing catastrophe and the oncoming onslaught in the midterms if he doesn't change course, and soon.
In the coming days and weeks - and hopefully, not months - expect all manner of banter, back-and-forth posturing, negotiations (some fake, some real), messaging, tweeting, "truthing", finger-pointing, and exclamatory pronouncements from the White House, congress, various leaders of other nations, all part of the unscripted tragedy that has occurred and still remains. One major issue might concern the fate of Israel. If the U.S. departs from the region, as expected, they will likely continue to arm and fund the Israeli offensive, which would be a shame since Iran would then concentrate most of its military might against it, and, just as likely, obliterate it, with ample support of its proxies in the region: Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, militants in Syria and Iraq.
In the end, the most desirable outcome might be a de-militarized Israel with the U.S. gone from the region and unwilling to support Zionist objectives. There is not likely to be a permanent peace in the region, but, at least the levels of atrocious militancy will be abated for some time. The only entity seriously seeking military dominance is Israel, and Iran, should the U.S. diminish its support, will largely complete the job.
As far as stocks and economics are concerned, as witnessed on Tuesday, U.S. equites will go more or less straight up as long as the Trump administration appears to be acting in a more rational manner. Since that is a questionable posture, there are likely to be quite a few gains and losses in huge moves either way. Despite the outsized gains from Tuesday, the major indices are still down sharply from all-time highs and even month-ago levels. Insiders are surely making bank on every move, but the VIX is still elevated, hovering around 25 after a 20% drop Tuesday, assuring further volatility. Generally speaking, a brief peace dividend is not going to eviscerate the multitude of issues facing Western economies.
On the home front in the U.S., ADP reported private sector job growth of 62,000 in the company's March Employment Report. In a somewhat starting reversal of recent trends, small companies (fewer than 20 employees) made the most gains (+112,000). Companies with between 20 and 250 employees shed a combined 53,000 jobs. Companies with 250-499 employees gained 6,000. The largest companies (500+) lost 6,000 jobs.
The off take from those figures suggests that smaller, specialized, "mom and pop" type businesses that were ravaged during the COVID escapade might be staging a comeback at the expense of larger, entrenched firms. That may not be such a good thing for the Apples, Googles, and Amazons of the world, though it might be welcome to the general public. Innovation and specialization skills may take the place of the 9 to 5 grinders. Technology - especially AI - might spur some badly needed entrepreneurship at the local and regional levels. While the old school economy may find itself in a bit of a rut and in need of structural changes, bottom-up start-ups might emerge as winners over coming months and years. Not everybody needs to be connected to mega-cap corporations.
As stocks made major moves upward, oil prices didn't react as favorably as expected. From a high of $106 Monday to a low just below $97, WTI crude oil futures are still trading around $100. Stock futures are expectedly higher, with Dow futures up 203 points, NASDAQ gaining 158, and S&P futures up 30 points.
So far this morning, Trump hasn't tweeted anything significant though there's little doubt about his ability to open mouth and insert foot. Recently, he touted Trump accounts being taken up by four million investors as a positive. These are accounts that are seeded with $1000 of government money, available to - ostensibly, the parents of - children aged 0-18 years of age. Four million takers out of an estimated pool of 72 million (roughly 4 million births each year since 2008, 18 years) is an uptake rate of about 5-6%. Not bad, but hardly something to crow about.
Well, OK, Donnie snuck one in just before Money Daily was about to post:
Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT
Then there's this: U.S. Senators Unveil ‘Mined in America Act’ to Reshore BTC Mining, Codify Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) introduced the “Mined in America Act” to reshore U.S. bitcoin mining, reduce reliance on Chinese hardware, and codify a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law, reminding Americans once again that it's still a clown show in Washington, D.C. and a rigged casino on Wall Street.
At the Close, Tuesday, March 31, 2026:
Dow: 46,341.51, +1,125.37 (+2.49%)
NASDAQ: 21,590.63, +795.99 (+3.83%)
S&P 500: 6,528.52, +184.80 (+2.91%)
NYSE Composite: 22,089.43, +507.78 (+2.35%)
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