Happy Easter.
On a day celebrated worldwide as one of hope and peace, that hardly seems to apply across the Middle East nor in the heart of President Trump, who is threatening Iran with total obliteration, targeting energy and other critical infrastructure if a ceasefire or "deal" is not agreed to by Monday afternoon. Mr. Trump would do well to heed a bit of biblical learning about what real peace looks like.
With markets closed for Good Friday, the March Non-farm payroll report was issued on April 3rd, showing a gain of 178,000 jobs for the month. With BLS monthly jobs reports, it's important not to focus on a single month at a time because they always are revised and a single month alone is not a trend.
For February, expectations were for +50K, revised to -133K. For March, expectations were for +59K and it's at +178K.
Putting these together, you have +109K expected vs +45K actual. Across the last two months, Health Care & Social Assistance were +62K, meaning the U.S. lost a totla of 17K jobs in the remaining economy. For the last four years, nearly 200% of net full-time jobs were taking care of aging Baby Boomers, indicating anything but growth, more likely the signs of a sick population and even sicker work force.
The Household survey was noisier, but with the labor force dropouts it showed a loss of 249K jobs in the last 2 months and 661K over the past year.
Stocks
Equity markets experienced a relief rally on the false hope that the conflict in the Middle East would be soon resolved. That seems less likely, and even if the war ended today, the damage to the global economy and to oil and gas-producers in the Persian Gulf region already would not be quickly nor easily resolved. Repairs to oil and gas production takes months if not years, depending on the levels of damage. Even the most optimistic among us would likely admit that a quick cessation of hostilities wouldn't produce a meaningful recovery. Rather, any improvements would be spotty and sporadic, affecting emerging nations the most. Wall Street would likely have a different point of view, believing that an end to the Middle East war would green-light ascension back to all-time highs.
That's their job. Makes for poor investment decisions longer term because eventually the market adjusts. Trust in math. Someday, the most irrational markets in centuries will revert to the mean, or worse.
These gains may prove to be insignificant longer term. The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P indices remain below both their 50-and-200-day moving averages. The NYSE Composite is in between both, and the Dow Transports have snuck above both.
For the Week:
Dow: +1338.03 (+2.96%)
NASDAQ: +930.82 (+4.44%)
S&P 500: +213.84 (+3.36%)
NYSE Composite: +561.36 (+2.59%)
Dow Transports: +913.82 (+5.03%)
Beyond Trump's threats and his ultimate actions, there will be a few economic events of some importance in the week ahead, the most impactful possibly being Friday's CPI report. While inflation isn't exactly top of mind for economists currently, it matters more to people who buy luxuries like food and fuel, so there will be widespread interest, though it's unlikely to spark any major market moves. Putting the release on a Friday is extremely political and devious.
The calendar at Trading View has a deeper dive into global economic events.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27/2026 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.48 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.55 |
| 03/13/2026 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| 03/20/2026 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| 03/27/2026 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.75 | 3.77 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.72 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27/2026 | 3.38 | 3.39 | 3.51 | 3.72 | 3.97 | 4.57 | 4.64 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.93 | 4.15 | 4.74 | 4.77 |
| 03/13/2026 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.87 | 4.07 | 4.28 | 4.89 | 4.90 |
| 03/20/2026 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 4.01 | 4.20 | 4.39 | 4.97 | 4.96 |
| 03/27/2026 | 3.88 | 3.94 | 4.06 | 4.25 | 4.44 | 4.99 | 4.98 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3.84 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.17 | 4.35 | 4.91 | 4.91 |
Along with stocks, treasuries got a bit of relief for the week, sending 30-year bond yields down seven basis points and yields on 10-year notes down nine. Based entirely on false hope, these yields are not likely to last. The game is seriously rigged in case you haven't noticed. If yields reflected the true condition of U.S. finances, yields would be one to two percent higher (5-6% on 10s and 6-7 on 30s). May actually get there someday, though probably not before President Trump stops insisting that the U.S. is the "hottest" country on the planet. What an ignorant, false assessment.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
Oil/Gas
WTI Crude Oil finished the week at $112.06, the highest in nearly four years (June, 2022, $118.87). Like everything else, it's tied to the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and presidential "tweetage." Prices should remain on the volatile side, with higher prices expected near term. Depending on the degree of stupidity and bellicosity displayed by the warring parties, the price of crude oil could skyrocket as high as $200. A quick - and lasting - end to the conflict might take prices down below $90, but that's not a speculation on which many associated with the energy field would bank.
Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.94 last Sunday and $4.09 this week. It's likely to remain above $4.00 for some time, possibly many months, though certain politicians would be best served by a reversion back towards $3.25 by fall.
Prices in key states:
California (leader): $5.91 (+0.05)
Washington: $5.39 (+0.09)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.23 (+0.02)
Florida: $4.19 (+0.35)
Illinois: $4.28 (+0.08)
Pennsylvania: $4.14 (+0.21)
New York: $4.03 (+0.13)
Maryland: $4.07 (+0.08)
Texas: $3.81 (+0.25)
Georgia: $3.69 (+0.14)
As of Sunday, April 5, there are 17 states with average prices above $4.00, and two above $5 (California, Washington), and 31 below the $4 threshold. The Midwest has supplanted the Southeast as the lowest-priced region, with prices averaging 15-20 cents lower in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas than Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.
Bitcoin
This week: $66,937.81
Last week: $66,408.8668,913.54
2 weeks ago: $68,913.54
6 months ago: $123,857.10
One year ago: $83,332.85
Five years ago: $59,778.52
Bitcoin has been essentially cut in half from its peak in October, 2025 ($124,310.60). "Hodlers" can take comfort in the fact that other crypto "shitcoins" have preformed similarly.
Anybody who bought bitcoin from November 2024 into the present, a period of nearly 18 months, has lost money and lost even more to inflation.
Why don't people point out that as an investment, bitcoin offers no yield or dividend, like stocks or bonds? The usual people who say that about gold and silver, never mention it in terms of bitcoin. Probably a good thing, since bitcoin in no way, shape, or form is similar to gold or silver.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.05; last week: 64.42
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 3/6: $5,181.30
Gold price 3/13: $5,023.10
Gold price 3/20: $4,492.00
Gold price 3/27: $4,521.30
Gold price 4/3: $4,702.70
Silver price 3/6: $84.69
Silver price 3/13: $80.64
Silver price 3/20: $67.81
Silver price 3/27: $69.77
Silver price 4/3: $73.17
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 3/6: $5,144.28
Gold 3/13: $5,022.11
Gold 3/20: $4,494.00
Gold 3/27: $4,495.05
Gold 4/3: $4,677.28
Silver 3/6: $84.33
Silver: 3/13: $80.60
Silver 3/20: $67.79
Silver 3/27: $69.77
Silver 4/3: $73.02
Both gold and silver produced solid gains for the week, another possible indication that last week (w/e 3/27) was a significant bottom. The likely condition is that most, if not all, U.S.-based bullion banks had finally exited their short positions and gone long. The COMEX cartel haven clearly taken the lead in price-setting once again, global conditions are ripe for a sstained rally in precious metals, both of which have been manipulated lower in recent weeks.
With the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continuing to be unresolved, the prevailing price-setting mechanism is being shaped by an increasing number of factors, not the least of which being geo-political tensions. This is a period in which holding gold and silver in one's possession may be among the best decisions for all investors, large or small. The levels of insecurity, especially in the West, ave risen significantly since the beginning of the Israel-U.S. assault on Iran which commenced on February 28.
Prices are certain to remain volatile, though there seems to be a nagging impetus back toward reecent all-time highs. Money and one's own well-being have become key focal points over the past month, to a level that even at highly elevated prices from just two years ago, the level of global uncertainty has fomented a large and growing movement into precious metals. This condition should remain intact for years as most indications are suggestive of a multi-year bull market in commodities in general, and precious metals in particular.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 oz silver coin: | 81.00 | 99.99 | 88.42 | 88.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 79.90 | 101.39 | 87.57 | 86.98 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4828.90 | 5,018.46 | 4907.52 | 4892.14 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4842.90 | 4828.90 | 4874.94 | 4875.92 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a leap forward through Sunday, April 5, to $87.74, a gain of $3.12 from the March 29 price of $84.86 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Markets aren't about to become more rational any time soon. Preparing for the worst while hoping for the best remains the most productive strategy. This is currently one of the more challenging times to make investment decisions. Trimming both winners and losers, moving to cash, precious metals and maybe real estate seems a prudent undertaking.
At the Close, Friday, April 3, 2026:
Dow: 46,504.67, -61.03 (-0.13%)
NASDAQ: 21,879.18, +38.23 (+0.18%)
S&P 500: 6,582.69, +7.37 (+0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 22,193.86, +13.14 (+0.06%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1338.03 (+2.96%)
NASDAQ: +930.82 (+4.44%)
S&P 500: +213.84 (+3.36%)
NYSE Composite: +561.36 (+2.59%)
Dow Transports: +913.82 (+5.03%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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