Essentially, anyone who bought stocks after 10:30 this morning and held them into the close ended up with a loss. The Dow shot up up over 100 points to the positive at that point, tacked on 100 more by quarter to three, and then fell apart in the final 30 minutes, finishing with a gain, but less of one than had the markets closed 5 1/2 hours earlier.
For those foolish enough to believe portfolio managers were loading up throughout the day, their fate will be told in days ahead. The wisest of the wise bought stocks in the first half hour of trading, before the fools rushed in a day early. Everything that occurred during the session after 10:00 am was fluff and puffery, running in opposition to the economic reports of the day and the news, which was uniformly bad.
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index [PDF] reported the worst month in the history of the series with a record 19% decline year-over-year for the February 2009 20 City Composite. Those numbers came out at 9:00 am, though the market chose to ignore them, opening the trading session with broad gains.
At 9:45 am, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index noted a decline for the month of March from 34.2 to 31.4 , its lowest level since 1980.
Finally, at 10:00 am, The Conference Board's consumer confidence reading edged slightly higher, to 26.0 in March, from 25.3 in February. The original February reading of 25 was an all-time low, though the revised reading still registered as the worst ever.
Meanwhile, GM and Ford announced plans to cover car payments for people who buy a new vehicle but lose their jobs, and Fritz Henderson, the new GM CEO, in his first full day on the job, said that more plant closings would be necessary and that bankruptcy would be "more probable" to a government workout. Stocks, in deference to reality, continued to soar through midday.
The Chicago Sun-Times filed for bankruptcy and President Obama flew off to London for a meeting of the G20, which, by most accounts, will accomplish nothing, as the parties are far apart on major issues such as taxation, regulation and stimulus. The conference begins tomorrow, though the demonstrations began in earnest today.
All of this led to a very fractured market at the close of one of the most volatile quarters in market history. Though March will be remembered as one of the best in market history, all major indices are down for the year by anywhere from 7-12%. and even though stocks finished the session with gains, there was a widespread feeling that the bears had actually carried the day.
Dow 7,608.92, +86.90 (1.16%)
NASDAQ 1,528.59, +26.79 (1.78%)
S&P 500 797.87, +10.34 (1.31%)
NYSE Composite 4,978.98, +79.93 (1.63%)
Nevertheless, advancing issues finished well ahead of decliners, 4720-1798, and new lows outnumbered new highs, 75-18, a string of daily wins for new lows which stretches all the way back to October, 2007, with the exception of 5 to 8 sessions with more new highs than lows. This has been the most accurate metric for measuring the market, since the bear market began in August of 2007, now stretching to 18 months, making this one of the longest bears in market history. Volume was off just a touch and seemed especially sluggish though the middle of the session, though very strong in the final 30 minutes.
NYSE Volume 1,638,661,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,145,532,000
Commodities were volatile as well though almost all ended with gains. Crude oil for May delivery ended the day higher by $1.49, at $49.90. Gold gained $7.30, to $925.00, while silver, the only loser of the major commodities, was down a nickel, to $12.99.
Market participants will be greeted early, at 8:15 am, by the ADP Employment survey for March, a precursor to Friday's government non-farm payroll report.
April Fool's Day starts a new quarter and a new month. March was the first month in six in which the Dow Jones Industrials registered a gain.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
GM, Chrysler Kaput. Is This News to Anybody?
Remarkably, the monstrous sell-off to begin what surely will be a testy week for investors, had as its catalyst an announcement by the federal government that the plans submitted by GM and Chrysler were inadequate in terms of qualifying for further federal assistance.
Remarkable in that the two companies have shown limited ability to comprehend the depth of their own problems, let alone the issues facing the entire global economy or the dictates which have been nothing if not clear from the Obama administration. Both companies have already received government assistance in the billions of dollars, have had ample time to devise realistic plans for their futures, and, even then, are asking for billions more.
Anyone with half a brain still functioning who had seen snippets of their plans - especially that of GM - could have seen with one eye closed that their projections were completely out of line with reality. GM, for instance, based many of its assumptions on selling 14 million vehicles in 2010, when they didn't even crack the 9 million mark in 2008. As far as Chrysler is concerned, their problems should not be an issue of national importance. They certainly are not too big to failnor are they worthy of any kind of public assistance, since they are a private company 80% owned by equity investors, Cerberus Capital, which has at its head, former Treasury Secretary John Snow and long ago decided to put Bob Nardelli in charge of Chrysler, the same Bob Nardelli who oversaw, as CEO, the near-destruction of Home Depot (HD) . Cerberus has already shed itself of Daimler, the profitable German subsidiary, and plans to partner with Italian automaker Fiat, a company in the throes of its own meltdown.
If the managers at Fiat have any sense, they'll steer themselves away from this private group of corporate bunglers, as should the government and taxpayers. And if anyone thinks that CEO Rick Waggoner, who submitted his resignation Monday at the behest of the White House, should be the beneficiary of any sympathy, bear in mind that under Waggoner's leadership, GM lost nearly $100 billion dollars and continued to build cars, trucks, vans and SUVs that guzzle gas and have limited appeal as its market share shrank and its stock price cratered.
These two bankrupt automakers, like the corrupt, insolvent, worthless national banks, should be allowed to do what all companies which have ceased to be competitive do: fail, file bankruptcy and either liquidate or reorganize. There's no good cause to keep them functioning any longer even though the damage to the economy would be paramount. The UAW would see 180,000 workers furloughed, pensioners could lose most of their future benefits and bondholders would be forced to take 10% or less on their dollars.
Life gets very tough when you don't have a backstop to bail you out, but this fiasco is just a furtherance of the insane, contradictory polices emanating from the Capitol and White House. The government has become such a major intermediary into business and Wall Street that their refusal to dole out more corporate welfare to companies that don't get it, causes a stock market rout and a resumption of the fear factor which has gripped the country for months, but took a few weeks in abeyance during the recent bear market rally.
Today's losses sent every index and sector into a tailspin which actually started on Friday of last week and probably won't end until the market is back below 7000 and looking to retest the March 9 multi-year lows.
Looking at the markets realistically, the bounce off the lows was so rapid and mostly unwarranted that an equally-severe snapback should have been expected. Despite the closing numbers, stocks were down even more in late afternoon trading before a mini-rally and short-covering brought all of the indices off their lows of the day.
Bulls can take some heart in the idea that the markets didn't completely fall off a cliff, and that volume was not nearly as high as last week's, though it points up the conclusion of more savvy investors that there are still a good number of players out there waiting to be skinned by the bears in coming days and weeks.
According to Investors Intelligence's Weekly Sentiment Poll bearish sentiment at the market lows earlier in the month were not even 50%, checking in at 47.2% at the bottom, hardly an indication of a market bottom. Sentiment would have to be closer to 80%, signaling capitulation, a condition to which today may have put us closer. It now seems almost certain that before the end of summer the market will finally roll over and die, though a few more trillion of investor dollars will have to be vaporized before the message finally becomes clear to the massive numbers of ill-informed investors which populate all income levels, from novice to wizened veteran.
The US economy is wrecked beyond simple recession-like repair, our banking system at the top is dysfunctional (though many smaller local and regional banks are healthy and poised to grow), unemployment will continue to rise well past 10%, states and municipalities are broke, consumers tapped out, homeowners hunkered down against high taxes and utility bills and the federal government running out of excuses as fast as they concoct rescues.
We are in a world of hurt and if you don't recognize all of the patterns, you deserve to lose everything. It's that stark and simple.
Dow 7,522.02, -254.16 (3.27%)
NASDAQ 1,501.80, -43.40 (2.81%)
S&P 500 787.53, -28.41 (3.48%)
NYSE Composite 4,899.05, -197.59 (3.88%)
On the day, market internals were miserable and pointing towards even worse conditions. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5373-1163, and while that's nearly a 5-1 ratio, it was closer to 8-1 midday, and will almost certainly approach those levels at least a couple of times in coming days and weeks. Stocks reaching new 52-week lows - moderated by the huge number of companies which had already collapsed by this time last year - numbered 109, as compared to the feeble 14 new highs. As stated above, volume was off a bit from last week's strong levels.
NYSE Volume 1,511,506,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,028,632,000
Commodities witnessed a resumption of the deflation trade, with crude oil taking a big hit, down $3.97, to $48.41. Gold lost $7.60, closing at $917.70. Silver shed 23 cents, to $13.03. Almost every other major commodity was traded lower, except natural gas, which finished unchanged at the depressed price of $3.80/mmbtu.
Other financial news was similarly dire. Washington Mutual (WaMu) and its key executives are the subject of a massive class action lawsuit, home foreclosures were sharply higher in February and JP Morgan Chase will refund over $4 million to credit card holders who began paying $10/per month in additional fees in January. The deal was struck under pressure from NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
As the week progresses, more economic reports will be revealed, including home prices, consumer confidence, auto and truck sales, private sector employment, all leading up to Friday's non-farm payroll report for March and new unemployment statistics.
Hold onto your hats, but sell your stocks if you played and have any gains over the past few weeks.
Remarkable in that the two companies have shown limited ability to comprehend the depth of their own problems, let alone the issues facing the entire global economy or the dictates which have been nothing if not clear from the Obama administration. Both companies have already received government assistance in the billions of dollars, have had ample time to devise realistic plans for their futures, and, even then, are asking for billions more.
Anyone with half a brain still functioning who had seen snippets of their plans - especially that of GM - could have seen with one eye closed that their projections were completely out of line with reality. GM, for instance, based many of its assumptions on selling 14 million vehicles in 2010, when they didn't even crack the 9 million mark in 2008. As far as Chrysler is concerned, their problems should not be an issue of national importance. They certainly are not too big to failnor are they worthy of any kind of public assistance, since they are a private company 80% owned by equity investors, Cerberus Capital, which has at its head, former Treasury Secretary John Snow and long ago decided to put Bob Nardelli in charge of Chrysler, the same Bob Nardelli who oversaw, as CEO, the near-destruction of Home Depot (HD) . Cerberus has already shed itself of Daimler, the profitable German subsidiary, and plans to partner with Italian automaker Fiat, a company in the throes of its own meltdown.
If the managers at Fiat have any sense, they'll steer themselves away from this private group of corporate bunglers, as should the government and taxpayers. And if anyone thinks that CEO Rick Waggoner, who submitted his resignation Monday at the behest of the White House, should be the beneficiary of any sympathy, bear in mind that under Waggoner's leadership, GM lost nearly $100 billion dollars and continued to build cars, trucks, vans and SUVs that guzzle gas and have limited appeal as its market share shrank and its stock price cratered.
These two bankrupt automakers, like the corrupt, insolvent, worthless national banks, should be allowed to do what all companies which have ceased to be competitive do: fail, file bankruptcy and either liquidate or reorganize. There's no good cause to keep them functioning any longer even though the damage to the economy would be paramount. The UAW would see 180,000 workers furloughed, pensioners could lose most of their future benefits and bondholders would be forced to take 10% or less on their dollars.
Life gets very tough when you don't have a backstop to bail you out, but this fiasco is just a furtherance of the insane, contradictory polices emanating from the Capitol and White House. The government has become such a major intermediary into business and Wall Street that their refusal to dole out more corporate welfare to companies that don't get it, causes a stock market rout and a resumption of the fear factor which has gripped the country for months, but took a few weeks in abeyance during the recent bear market rally.
Today's losses sent every index and sector into a tailspin which actually started on Friday of last week and probably won't end until the market is back below 7000 and looking to retest the March 9 multi-year lows.
Looking at the markets realistically, the bounce off the lows was so rapid and mostly unwarranted that an equally-severe snapback should have been expected. Despite the closing numbers, stocks were down even more in late afternoon trading before a mini-rally and short-covering brought all of the indices off their lows of the day.
Bulls can take some heart in the idea that the markets didn't completely fall off a cliff, and that volume was not nearly as high as last week's, though it points up the conclusion of more savvy investors that there are still a good number of players out there waiting to be skinned by the bears in coming days and weeks.
According to Investors Intelligence's Weekly Sentiment Poll bearish sentiment at the market lows earlier in the month were not even 50%, checking in at 47.2% at the bottom, hardly an indication of a market bottom. Sentiment would have to be closer to 80%, signaling capitulation, a condition to which today may have put us closer. It now seems almost certain that before the end of summer the market will finally roll over and die, though a few more trillion of investor dollars will have to be vaporized before the message finally becomes clear to the massive numbers of ill-informed investors which populate all income levels, from novice to wizened veteran.
The US economy is wrecked beyond simple recession-like repair, our banking system at the top is dysfunctional (though many smaller local and regional banks are healthy and poised to grow), unemployment will continue to rise well past 10%, states and municipalities are broke, consumers tapped out, homeowners hunkered down against high taxes and utility bills and the federal government running out of excuses as fast as they concoct rescues.
We are in a world of hurt and if you don't recognize all of the patterns, you deserve to lose everything. It's that stark and simple.
Dow 7,522.02, -254.16 (3.27%)
NASDAQ 1,501.80, -43.40 (2.81%)
S&P 500 787.53, -28.41 (3.48%)
NYSE Composite 4,899.05, -197.59 (3.88%)
On the day, market internals were miserable and pointing towards even worse conditions. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5373-1163, and while that's nearly a 5-1 ratio, it was closer to 8-1 midday, and will almost certainly approach those levels at least a couple of times in coming days and weeks. Stocks reaching new 52-week lows - moderated by the huge number of companies which had already collapsed by this time last year - numbered 109, as compared to the feeble 14 new highs. As stated above, volume was off a bit from last week's strong levels.
NYSE Volume 1,511,506,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,028,632,000
Commodities witnessed a resumption of the deflation trade, with crude oil taking a big hit, down $3.97, to $48.41. Gold lost $7.60, closing at $917.70. Silver shed 23 cents, to $13.03. Almost every other major commodity was traded lower, except natural gas, which finished unchanged at the depressed price of $3.80/mmbtu.
Other financial news was similarly dire. Washington Mutual (WaMu) and its key executives are the subject of a massive class action lawsuit, home foreclosures were sharply higher in February and JP Morgan Chase will refund over $4 million to credit card holders who began paying $10/per month in additional fees in January. The deal was struck under pressure from NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
As the week progresses, more economic reports will be revealed, including home prices, consumer confidence, auto and truck sales, private sector employment, all leading up to Friday's non-farm payroll report for March and new unemployment statistics.
Hold onto your hats, but sell your stocks if you played and have any gains over the past few weeks.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Reality, Resistance Force Profit-Taking at Week's End
After becoming absurdly overbought, US equity markets finally produced an intelligent about-face on Friday, though there remain a large number of holdouts who believe that the current condition is something other than an abnormally-large bear market rally.
The major indices gave back most of Thursday's ridiculous gains but still finished the week very much on the positive side. There was little in the way of economic reports or company earnings filings, so investors were mostly on their own, playing the momentum trade, and the momentum had clearly run its course to the upside, as the NASDAQ ended in positive territory for the year on Thursday, but came back to earth on Friday and the Dow broke dangerously close to upside resistance at 8000 before backing well away today.
The week was the third straight that stocks had finished with gains, and, in case you're keeping score, was the 4th time this year that stocks ended a week higher, against 8 which closed on a negative note. For some perspective, the Dow is down exactly 1000 points for the year, while the NASDAQ is off only 34 and the S&P down 88, more in line with the Dow.
Obviously, the NASDAQ contains far fewer financial stocks and is overweighted with tech stocks and smaller corporations, so we may be about to witness the stock market equivalent of Revenge of the Nerds as new-age technology companies outperform older, more established (and with heavier debt burdens and legacy costs) companies on the Dow and NYSE. Speaking of the NYSE Composite, it has performed the on line with the Dow, down 660 points for the year.
Dow 7,776.18, -148.38 (1.87%)
NASDAQ 1,545.20, -41.80 (2.63%)
S&P 500 815.94, -16.92 (2.03%)
NYSE Composite 5,096.64, -133.89 (2.56%)
Internals were decidedly negative, with advancing issues being outnumbered by declining ones, 4896-1612, a 3-1 ratio. New lows continued to pour in ahead of new highs, though at a moderate pace, 110-25. That metric, despite the huge recent rally, has yet to roll over. When it does, it is likely to be short-lived, as stocks should return to some more normal range (between 6900 and 7500 on the Dow). After that, it's anybody's guess where they will go, though a retest of the low (Dow 6550) is more than likely in the offing, though the exact timing of that move is as yet unclear. It could be merely weeks away or many months. Consult your own crystal ball if you desire a more accurate reading.
Volume was down slightly from levels seen during the run-up, indicating that there are still stubborn types holding recent gains. Those should be eviscerated over the coming 5 weeks, as the next round of corporate earnings takes center stage.
NYSE Volume 1,443,266,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,102,247,000
Over in the commodity pits, life was equally downbeat as oil slipped another $1.98, to $52.38, a bit of a relief for drivers as gas prices have recently edged back above the $2 mark. Gold fell $16.90, to $925.30. Silver was down 36 cents to $13.26. The precious metals continue to languish in a trading range, with gold hanging between $880 and $990 and silver trading iroughly between $12 and $13.75. Investors seem to be torn between buying the assets as inflation hedges and selling them on upticks in price during a deflationary trend. Both have been right at different times.
Just after the market closed (one can only wonder in amazement at the timing of these things) the FDIC took over Georgia's Omni National Bank, and it's nearly $1 billion in assets - pocket change in today's environment.
The coming week should be highly entertaining and instructional. On Tuesday, the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index numbers and Consumer Confidence for March are released prior to the market's open. Wednesday offers a bonanza of economic reports, including the ADP employment report for March, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales for February, Crude Inventories and March Auto and Truck Sales. If the market can absorb that, Friday comes the government's official figures for March Non-farm Payrolls.
Traders will likely be hard-pressed to hold onto recent gains. Enjoy some great college hoops this weekend and get ready for a wild ride next week.
The major indices gave back most of Thursday's ridiculous gains but still finished the week very much on the positive side. There was little in the way of economic reports or company earnings filings, so investors were mostly on their own, playing the momentum trade, and the momentum had clearly run its course to the upside, as the NASDAQ ended in positive territory for the year on Thursday, but came back to earth on Friday and the Dow broke dangerously close to upside resistance at 8000 before backing well away today.
The week was the third straight that stocks had finished with gains, and, in case you're keeping score, was the 4th time this year that stocks ended a week higher, against 8 which closed on a negative note. For some perspective, the Dow is down exactly 1000 points for the year, while the NASDAQ is off only 34 and the S&P down 88, more in line with the Dow.
Obviously, the NASDAQ contains far fewer financial stocks and is overweighted with tech stocks and smaller corporations, so we may be about to witness the stock market equivalent of Revenge of the Nerds as new-age technology companies outperform older, more established (and with heavier debt burdens and legacy costs) companies on the Dow and NYSE. Speaking of the NYSE Composite, it has performed the on line with the Dow, down 660 points for the year.
Dow 7,776.18, -148.38 (1.87%)
NASDAQ 1,545.20, -41.80 (2.63%)
S&P 500 815.94, -16.92 (2.03%)
NYSE Composite 5,096.64, -133.89 (2.56%)
Internals were decidedly negative, with advancing issues being outnumbered by declining ones, 4896-1612, a 3-1 ratio. New lows continued to pour in ahead of new highs, though at a moderate pace, 110-25. That metric, despite the huge recent rally, has yet to roll over. When it does, it is likely to be short-lived, as stocks should return to some more normal range (between 6900 and 7500 on the Dow). After that, it's anybody's guess where they will go, though a retest of the low (Dow 6550) is more than likely in the offing, though the exact timing of that move is as yet unclear. It could be merely weeks away or many months. Consult your own crystal ball if you desire a more accurate reading.
Volume was down slightly from levels seen during the run-up, indicating that there are still stubborn types holding recent gains. Those should be eviscerated over the coming 5 weeks, as the next round of corporate earnings takes center stage.
NYSE Volume 1,443,266,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,102,247,000
Over in the commodity pits, life was equally downbeat as oil slipped another $1.98, to $52.38, a bit of a relief for drivers as gas prices have recently edged back above the $2 mark. Gold fell $16.90, to $925.30. Silver was down 36 cents to $13.26. The precious metals continue to languish in a trading range, with gold hanging between $880 and $990 and silver trading iroughly between $12 and $13.75. Investors seem to be torn between buying the assets as inflation hedges and selling them on upticks in price during a deflationary trend. Both have been right at different times.
Just after the market closed (one can only wonder in amazement at the timing of these things) the FDIC took over Georgia's Omni National Bank, and it's nearly $1 billion in assets - pocket change in today's environment.
The coming week should be highly entertaining and instructional. On Tuesday, the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index numbers and Consumer Confidence for March are released prior to the market's open. Wednesday offers a bonanza of economic reports, including the ADP employment report for March, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales for February, Crude Inventories and March Auto and Truck Sales. If the market can absorb that, Friday comes the government's official figures for March Non-farm Payrolls.
Traders will likely be hard-pressed to hold onto recent gains. Enjoy some great college hoops this weekend and get ready for a wild ride next week.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Unchecked Greed Reigns Free
If you thought the 2 1/2-week-long rally had run out of gas - like yours truly - you were proven wrong on Thursday. The Masters of the Universe were at their level best once again, goosing stock positions throughout the day, but particularly in the final hour (just like yesterday, and many days before), when stocks added mightily to their already solid gains.
The Dow jumped nearly 100 points in the last hour, while the NASDAQ, which outperformed all other indices by a huge margin, added 28 additional points as the session drew to a close. It is apparent to any outside observer that greed has trumped fear over the short term. The Dow Jones Industrials have now climbed 1377 points since March 9, a span of 13 sessions.
The economic news of the day was pretty much in line with expectations. Unemployment roles hit a new record high, with another 652,000 Americans adding their names to the roles of the jobless. Final GDP figures for the 4th quarter of 2008 came in at -6.3%, better than the -6.6% some had expected. A number of companies reported better-than-expected earnings, Best Buy and Texas Instruments among them, though investors were snatching up shares of just abut anything that had a price attached to it, in a mad scramble to jump on the equity bandwagon.
If ever there was a textbook case for an overbought bear market rally, this surely is it, and while there may be no perceptible end in sight, the 8000 level, at which there is substantial resistance, is already within shouting distance. It should be pointed out, however, that this market knows nothing of support and resistance, commonly disregarding any resistance on the way up. The path back down ought to be particularly brutal, now that 90% of the public is convinced the worst is behind us, since there are there have been numerous gap-ups at various opens, and, as any chartist well knows, gaps always get filled.
But that's a lesson for another day. For now, any hint of the financial crisis, liquidity squeeze, deflationary spiral or housing crunch has given way to chants of "go, baby, go."
Dow 7,924.56, +174.75 (2.25%)
NASDAQ 1,587.00, +58.05 (3.80%)
S&P 500 832.86, +18.98 (2.33%)
NYSE Composite 5,230.53, +103.53 (2.02%)
Market internals were as unsurprising as the headline numbers. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners, 5180-1675, though new lows continued ahead of new highs, 117-36, though the numbers are closing ranks. Volume was very high once more, especially on the NASDAQ, which recorded one of the highest volume days of the year.
NYSE Volume 1,792,579,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,594,485,000
Crude oil continued to rise, up $1.57, to $54.34. Gold gained $4.20, to $942.20, while silver tagged along with a gain of 18 cents, to $13.62.
Noting the gains in stocks, as well as most commodities, it seems that throwing trillions of dollars at the markets in all manner of bailout, breakout, cram-down and stimuli, seems to be working. The economy is reflating at an incredible rate, so much so that the Fed should consider raising interest rates off their absurdly low emergency levels. Of course, they won't, until the American landscape is littered with currency.
The precious metals now appear to be even better investments than ever. With all asset classes rising in price, rather than an orderly deflation which would have occurred naturally, we will now have even more mal-valued investments in equities especially, backed by a currency that is losing value faster than a prostitute sheds her chastity.
People's 401k's ought to look much better by the end of the month. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 25% in the past 2 1/2 weeks, though all that extra loot in one's pension is surely going to be eaten up by the ravishes of taxation and inflation. Welcome to the new normal. You earn, you pay, you remain under the thumb. Enjoy it while you can.
The Dow jumped nearly 100 points in the last hour, while the NASDAQ, which outperformed all other indices by a huge margin, added 28 additional points as the session drew to a close. It is apparent to any outside observer that greed has trumped fear over the short term. The Dow Jones Industrials have now climbed 1377 points since March 9, a span of 13 sessions.
The economic news of the day was pretty much in line with expectations. Unemployment roles hit a new record high, with another 652,000 Americans adding their names to the roles of the jobless. Final GDP figures for the 4th quarter of 2008 came in at -6.3%, better than the -6.6% some had expected. A number of companies reported better-than-expected earnings, Best Buy and Texas Instruments among them, though investors were snatching up shares of just abut anything that had a price attached to it, in a mad scramble to jump on the equity bandwagon.
If ever there was a textbook case for an overbought bear market rally, this surely is it, and while there may be no perceptible end in sight, the 8000 level, at which there is substantial resistance, is already within shouting distance. It should be pointed out, however, that this market knows nothing of support and resistance, commonly disregarding any resistance on the way up. The path back down ought to be particularly brutal, now that 90% of the public is convinced the worst is behind us, since there are there have been numerous gap-ups at various opens, and, as any chartist well knows, gaps always get filled.
But that's a lesson for another day. For now, any hint of the financial crisis, liquidity squeeze, deflationary spiral or housing crunch has given way to chants of "go, baby, go."
Dow 7,924.56, +174.75 (2.25%)
NASDAQ 1,587.00, +58.05 (3.80%)
S&P 500 832.86, +18.98 (2.33%)
NYSE Composite 5,230.53, +103.53 (2.02%)
Market internals were as unsurprising as the headline numbers. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners, 5180-1675, though new lows continued ahead of new highs, 117-36, though the numbers are closing ranks. Volume was very high once more, especially on the NASDAQ, which recorded one of the highest volume days of the year.
NYSE Volume 1,792,579,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,594,485,000
Crude oil continued to rise, up $1.57, to $54.34. Gold gained $4.20, to $942.20, while silver tagged along with a gain of 18 cents, to $13.62.
Noting the gains in stocks, as well as most commodities, it seems that throwing trillions of dollars at the markets in all manner of bailout, breakout, cram-down and stimuli, seems to be working. The economy is reflating at an incredible rate, so much so that the Fed should consider raising interest rates off their absurdly low emergency levels. Of course, they won't, until the American landscape is littered with currency.
The precious metals now appear to be even better investments than ever. With all asset classes rising in price, rather than an orderly deflation which would have occurred naturally, we will now have even more mal-valued investments in equities especially, backed by a currency that is losing value faster than a prostitute sheds her chastity.
People's 401k's ought to look much better by the end of the month. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 25% in the past 2 1/2 weeks, though all that extra loot in one's pension is surely going to be eaten up by the ravishes of taxation and inflation. Welcome to the new normal. You earn, you pay, you remain under the thumb. Enjoy it while you can.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Market Searches for Direction, Extends Gains
The major indices all finished the day on a positive note, but that was only half the story. Up by 2% (the Dow up 200 points) in early trading on unexpected gains in durable goods orders and new home sales.
But the real story was in the Treasury auction, which reportedly drew less demand than expected and induced the Federal Reserve to snatch up $7.5 billion in Treasuries maturing in the next seven to 10 years. That triggered a severe response on Wall Street, which commenced on a downward trajectory, with the Dow dropping from 7800 at 1:00 pm to the day's low at 7550 at 3:00 pm.
Concerned that the market would continue to sell-off and wipe out gains from Monday's historic 497-point rise, traders got busy in the final hour, boosting stocks back into positive territory. From 3:00 to 4:00 pm the Dow tacked on nearly 200 points, with some serious tape-painting in the final seven minutes, in which the Dow went from unchanged to the final close, up 89.84 points.
Dow 7,749.81, +89.84 (1.17%)
NASDAQ 1,528.95, +12.43 (0.82%)
S&P 500 813.88, +7.63 (0.95%)
NYSE Composite 5,127.00, +62.67 (1.24%)
The level of participation is particularly worrisome to the Treasury and the Obama administration, which is seeking to sell a record $94 billion in Treasuries this week. A similar auction in Great Britain received such poor participation that the auction was widely considered a failure. Nations worldwide need to finance large amounts of debt, but all are dwarfed by the quantity the US government plans to sell this year, roughly triple the amount auctioned in 2008.
Additionally, the figures for February new home sales (337,000) were tempered by lower prices and the fact that the number is still 41% below last year's already depressed levels. Ditto the durable goods report, which showed a gain of 3.9%, as more than half of the purchases were made by the Department of Defense. Thus, the markets were rather confused: at first euphoric, then sullen, and finally, covering short positions and reinforcing the bid in the final hour.
At the end of the day, only one thing was for sure: that the market is in serious need of new direction. An underlying element of fear is prevalent, even though stocks - from March 11 to March 24 - put on their best 10-day showing since 1938, according to Addison Wiggins at the dailyreckoning.com.
Advancing issues eventually held sway over decliners, 4417-2112. New lows beat out new highs once again, 123-30. Volume was spectacular, near the highest of this current three-week period.
NYSE Volume 1,773,648,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,494,052,000
Commodities were mixed. Crude oil futures for May delivery fell $1.21, to $52.77 on a report that US supplies were at 16-year highs. Gold gained $12.00, to $938.00. Silver added 8 cents to finish at $13.44.
With so much confusion, it seems difficult for stocks to continue their gains much longer. Today's initial thrust resulted in an evident topping pattern and the subsequent decline broke through various support levels before the manipulated rally nearing the close. Much of the late-day gains were led by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and other financial stocks which have fueled the rally of late.
Prior to the opening bell tomorrow, traders will digest two important pieces of economic data, both releases scheduled for 8:30 am: initial unemployment claims and the final 4th quarter 2008 GDP, which is expected to be recorded as worse than previous estimates. The last GDP estimate was a decline of 6.5%. Tomorrow's number figures to be closer to 6.8%.
With that, my apologies for yesterday's truncated post, though the interface issues have now been resolved. Be on your toes early. This market could run either way, or, like today, cascade in both directions.
But the real story was in the Treasury auction, which reportedly drew less demand than expected and induced the Federal Reserve to snatch up $7.5 billion in Treasuries maturing in the next seven to 10 years. That triggered a severe response on Wall Street, which commenced on a downward trajectory, with the Dow dropping from 7800 at 1:00 pm to the day's low at 7550 at 3:00 pm.
Concerned that the market would continue to sell-off and wipe out gains from Monday's historic 497-point rise, traders got busy in the final hour, boosting stocks back into positive territory. From 3:00 to 4:00 pm the Dow tacked on nearly 200 points, with some serious tape-painting in the final seven minutes, in which the Dow went from unchanged to the final close, up 89.84 points.
Dow 7,749.81, +89.84 (1.17%)
NASDAQ 1,528.95, +12.43 (0.82%)
S&P 500 813.88, +7.63 (0.95%)
NYSE Composite 5,127.00, +62.67 (1.24%)
The level of participation is particularly worrisome to the Treasury and the Obama administration, which is seeking to sell a record $94 billion in Treasuries this week. A similar auction in Great Britain received such poor participation that the auction was widely considered a failure. Nations worldwide need to finance large amounts of debt, but all are dwarfed by the quantity the US government plans to sell this year, roughly triple the amount auctioned in 2008.
Additionally, the figures for February new home sales (337,000) were tempered by lower prices and the fact that the number is still 41% below last year's already depressed levels. Ditto the durable goods report, which showed a gain of 3.9%, as more than half of the purchases were made by the Department of Defense. Thus, the markets were rather confused: at first euphoric, then sullen, and finally, covering short positions and reinforcing the bid in the final hour.
At the end of the day, only one thing was for sure: that the market is in serious need of new direction. An underlying element of fear is prevalent, even though stocks - from March 11 to March 24 - put on their best 10-day showing since 1938, according to Addison Wiggins at the dailyreckoning.com.
Advancing issues eventually held sway over decliners, 4417-2112. New lows beat out new highs once again, 123-30. Volume was spectacular, near the highest of this current three-week period.
NYSE Volume 1,773,648,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,494,052,000
Commodities were mixed. Crude oil futures for May delivery fell $1.21, to $52.77 on a report that US supplies were at 16-year highs. Gold gained $12.00, to $938.00. Silver added 8 cents to finish at $13.44.
With so much confusion, it seems difficult for stocks to continue their gains much longer. Today's initial thrust resulted in an evident topping pattern and the subsequent decline broke through various support levels before the manipulated rally nearing the close. Much of the late-day gains were led by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and other financial stocks which have fueled the rally of late.
Prior to the opening bell tomorrow, traders will digest two important pieces of economic data, both releases scheduled for 8:30 am: initial unemployment claims and the final 4th quarter 2008 GDP, which is expected to be recorded as worse than previous estimates. The last GDP estimate was a decline of 6.5%. Tomorrow's number figures to be closer to 6.8%.
With that, my apologies for yesterday's truncated post, though the interface issues have now been resolved. Be on your toes early. This market could run either way, or, like today, cascade in both directions.
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