Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Stocks Slightly in Red Amidst Heavy Economic Data

With investors digesting an avalanche of economic data, stocks spent the entire session in the red, even though the major indices finished with modest losses by day's end.

The overall tone was set early on, when the government reported its first revision to 3rd quarter GDP, which came in exactly at the estimates, showing the economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace. That seemingly wasn't good enough, as futures fell immediately after the reading.

At 9:00 am, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a decline of 9.4% for September, slightly more than estimates. That reading didn't help matters, nor did a positive reading on consumer confidence - 49.5, up from 48.7 in October - at 10:00 am.

The negative tone was exacerbated by a stronger US Dollar, discouraging the normal risk trade. At 2:00 pm, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting of the Fed (Nov. 3-4) were released, and that seemed to calm some nerves into the close. What was revealed in the minutes was unsurprising, as the Fed saw industrial production improvements, slight increases in personal expenditures, low inflation risk and continuing high unemployment.

There was some actual discussion amongst the participants concerning the ever-decreasing value of the US Dollar, though overall the committee was unfazed by what they say as a natural, orderly unwinding of "safe-haven demand" as the economic conditions stabilized around the world. With that kind of language coming straight from the Fed, investors should be quite a bit less concerned that the dollar is going "off the deep end" in relation to other currencies, and about to lose its favored reserve status.

Dow 10,433.71, -17.24 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,169.18, -6.83 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,105.65, -0.59 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,170.26, -16.07 (0.22%)


On the day, simple indicators were in line with the headline numbers, with declining issues beating back advancers, 3658-2799. New highs exceeded new lows, 186-65, and volume continued to poke along at the new-normal pace.

NYSE Volume 4,345,491,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,632,375


Commodities were mixed, as they have been in recent days. Crude oil futures continued to slip, down $1.54, to $76.02, the lowest level in more than two months. Gold gained $1.90, to $1,166.60, though silver dropped 16 cents, to $18.49.

Tomorrow's trading will again be influenced by economic data, including readings on personal income, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, another consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan, new home sales and crude inventories. With all that to consider throughout the day, traders will likely be giving thanks just to get away from the flurry of facts, numbers and statistics being thrown about.

After the one-day holiday on Thursday, markets will be open for a half-session, with everything shutting down at 1:00 pm on Black Friday. With retail's biggest one-day event as a backdrop, the focus will be turning from drab economic data to how robust or dull the holiday shopping season will be. Estimates have been somewhat tempered, with most calling for only slight improvement from last year, which was one of the worst on record.

Any anecdotal evidence from Black Friday will make for another spurt in the indices, which are close to a high point, even though the usual talk of the market being "tired" has not surfaced of late. There could be another 5-10% or more left to run before the year is out, as stocks do not seem to want to stay down for long, as has been the case since the beginning of the rally back in March.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Higher Finish for Stocks to Open Holiday Week

Encouraged by an impressive 10.1% monthly gain in existing home sales for October, to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units, investors piled into stocks with reckless abandon Monday morning. Once again, the risk trade provided additional lift, as the US Dollar fell against most major foreign currencies. Shortly after 10:00 am ET, the Dow Jones Industrials reached their highs of the day, up more than 175 points, with dead aim at 10,500.

Though stocks meandered throughout the remainder of the session and finished off their highs, it was still a robust trading day in New York, with renewed buying interest during the final half-hour. Stocks finished much closer to their high than the open, countering three straight days of losses and leaving the Dow at a closing high for the year.

The NASDAQ and S&P finished with healthy gains, retracing toward the highs set early last week. With markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and a half-day session on Friday, stocks are poised to finish November on a high note. The last day of trading for the month is a week away, on the 30th.

Dow 10,450.95, +132.79 (1.29%)
NASDAQ 2,176.01, +29.97 (1.40%)
S&P 500 1,106.24, +14.86 (1.36%)
NYSE Compos 7,186.33, +101.86 (1.44%)


Advancing issues outperformed decliners handily, 4845-1644, or roughly 3:1. New highs totaled 429, to just 69 new lows. Volume continued to be disappointing to many market observers, though by now the lower volume figures have to be accepted as the "new normal" as the recovery for stocks continues to stretch its gains. Those in the bearish camp cannot honestly espouse the thinking that this rally, devoid of heavy volume for the most part, is not the real deal. A nearly 4000 point rise in the Dow Jones Industrials has to be considered an exceptional rally, no matter the level of trading. Those who have missed one of the largest moves in the history of the market are only trying to salve the wounds received from non-participation.

NYSE Volume 4,468,339,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,754,500


Gold continued to be the story of the year, gaining another $18.00, to $1,164.80, another record close. Silver did its best to keep pace, picking up 18 cents, to $18.59. Oil was hardly affected, up just 9 cents, to $77.56.

Today's rather euphoric sentiment may not be long-lived, however, as more economic data will flow to the market prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. The second reading on GDP is expected to come in well short of the initial measure from last month of 3.5% growth. Experts are looking for a more temperate 2.8% read. At 9:00 am, the Case Shiller 20 City Index is released. Fed minutes from their November meeting are due out at 2:00 pm. The minutes are highly-anticipated. After keeping interest rates at the same level last month, analysts did not get any clue as to future Fed moves. There is hope in some camps that the central bank will offer more clarity about when it plans to tighten (raise) rates.

On the bullish side, the outlook is for the Fed to reveal little more than the normal shadowy wording that normally accompanies the initial release. Besides the US dollar trade set-up being currently positive for stocks, investors aren't really keen on the Fed making any premature moves, and, if history is any guide, they'll be in no hurry to take away the punch bowl, tightening only when inflation already has a firm grip. With Ben Bernanke - an inflation dove - at the helm, expect this Fed to keep rates low for much longer than necessary.

Those seeking some guidance from the wording of the minutes are those same bearish types who still have cash in money market funds, earning less than one percent. For them, the market gains are painful. For those in the game, it's been a delight.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

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Friday, November 20, 2009

Stronger US Dollar Drags Down Stocks

This is an unusually strong market, even if volume indications do not verify such.

After a week of US Dollar jawboning and actual intervention, driving it off its lows against most of the raw material currencies - Brazil, Canada, Australia - and especially against the Euro, the US Dollar seems to have stabilized, taking US stock markets in the opposite direction.

There seems to be a concerted effort to eliminate the "risk trade" associated with the weak dollar, more than likely initiated by the Fed and US Treasury, under some darker moniker, no doubt, in advance of actual tightening by the Fed come this Spring or Summer at the latest. The risks associated with a weaker dollar are too great for the Fed and the rest of the developed nations to tolerate for long, so an unwinding of the carry trade has to be in the works, or so it seems.

Despite this effort, stocks barely stumbled in the week-long effort. There have been a number of casualties, but everybody with any experience in the markets knows that the liquidity-driven trade must be eventually replaced by a return to the normalcy of trading on fundamentals. The trick is to get it to happen somewhat seamlessly, without a huge downdraft in the already-heated markets.

The action this week kept the lid on stocks while giving quiet notice that the Fed and Treasury is not going to allow the US dollar to fall much further, if any.

Dow 10,318.16, -14.28 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,146.04, -10.78 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,091.38, -3.52 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 7,084.47, -33.17 (0.47%)


Stocks finished lower for the third straight session. Advancing issues were overshadowed by decliners, 3719-2713. It was the slightest margin of losers to winners of the past three days. New highs remained ahead of new lows, 127-64, which should be the case, as last year's ranges should not be difficult to beat. Highs should exceed lows all the way through March of next year and likely well beyond.

Volume was moderate, or, as the case may be, normal.

NYSE Volume 4,301,791,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,934,215,250


Once again, oil was caught up in the dollar trade, losing 74 cents, to $76.72. Gold continued on its own special track, now completely untethered from the dollar, up another $6.60, to $1,148.50, another closing high. Silver failed to keep pace, losing a penny, to $18.45.

The week was rather uneventful, though Dell's missing of targets and poor guidance was a highlight for the latter part of the week. The company seems to be in a very tight spot, with competition apparently eating into market share and margins, especially by HP, Acer and Toshiba.

Even after the small drop this week - between 1.25 and 2% on the major exchanges - the US stock rally that began in March of this year still appears to have some life remaining. Though stocks broke below the key 1100 mark on the S&P, that level should no longer provide strong resistance, since it was exceeded last week. While the skeptics will be weighing whether or not the rally has run out of steam, there's a pretty good bet that money managers will be diving right back in again on Monday, with money that needs to go to work. Unless the interventionists on the Dollar front overstep their mandate, stocks should continue apace until the end of the year.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Perverse Dollar Trade Sends Stocks South

The US Dollar was stronger against most world currencies on Thursday. Stocks fell.

If that sounds odd to you, it should. The normal relationship of a strong dollar to strong stocks has been undercut in recent days as the new carry trade of borrowing cheap dollars and investing in risky equities has produced one of the more remarkable rallies of the past 100 years.

Sadly, it cannot continue. Eventually, days like today, when the dollar strengthens and stocks are obliterated as traders are forced to liquidate out of positions, will proliferate, killing the stock market rally. Either that, or, stocks continue to climb while we kill the dollar. Today's trading may have been illustrative in just how perverse and destructive the inverse relationship has become. One way or another, somebody's got to lose, when the truth is that a stronger dollar should encourage more investment in stocks and US companies, rather than the reverse.

There's a bit of illogic to this trade, so excuse me for thinking out loud here. If it's true that many of the hedge funds are already out of this market, then today's trade would not have occurred. There would have been honest bets on stocks, not liquidity-driven hedge-type activity. So, that argument is probably full of large holes.

Then there's the idea of trillions on the sidelines - some say as much as $3 trillion invested in money market funds, some more in bond funds and plenty in cash. Just because those people don't want to engage in the high risk of equities, it does not necessarily follow that they'll want to jump in when stocks are cheaper. Were that the case, they had ample opportunity back in the Winter of 2009-10. So, toss that rationale.

What makes sense is that the dollar will continue to weaken until the Fed signals that they're going to begin raising interest rates. Estimates of when that might happen range from June 2010 to some time in 2011. What's certain is that the Fed cannot keep rates at "near-zero" for much longer. Other nations have already begun raising interest rates - Australia and Norway to name two - while more are hinting at doing the same. When the Fed decides to begin raising rates the dollar will stop sliding against other currencies. It will actually begin gaining when our blessed federal government decides to start acting like adults and do something about the enormous deficits they are running.

Both of those events - Fed tightening and government responsibility - are inevitably tied to politics, and, with mid-term elections upcoming in less than a year, there's a good bet that there will be action by then, in fact, 4-6 months before the elections. So, June sounds like the right time for the Fed to boost 25 basis points, maybe even 50. It's also likely that the federal budgeting process will begin sounding more Republican, even though it will be dominated by Democrats.

So, where does that leave stocks? Little changed until then. The bull market remains intact, the carry trade goes on for a few more months, because, as the market is the ultimate discounting mechanism, the Fed moves will be baked in long before they actually occur. The rally should run nicely through January, and even into Spring, with a small respite during the summer and glorioski! another rally just in time for the election!

That's one way to play it. Ignore all the talk and chatter about the carry trade, weaker dollar, etc. and focus on good companies making money. Sooner or later, fundamentals will be your friend, and, by all indications, they're not too bad right now. A year from now, the crash of 2008 will be a fast-fading memory.

Dow 10,332.44, -93.87 (0.90%)
NASDAQ 2,156.82, -36.32 (1.66%)
S&P 500 1,094.90, -14.90 (1.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,117.64, -109.07 (1.51%)


Today's final numbers could have been much worse. The dollar actually weakened throughout the session, and stocks pared their losses after 10:30 am. The Dow was down 170 in the early going and gained much of that back by the closing bell. At the end, declining issues outnumbered advancing ones, 5210-1381, or nearly 4:1. It was one of the more lopsided days in recent memory, though hardly a rally-killer. It should be noted that options expire tomorrow, so much of the trading had to do with gains and losses on option trades. There were only 108 new highs, as compared to 67 new lows. The indication is that stocks are weak, though this measure cannot be trusted on a one-day move. We'll need more evidence that the bears have control before changing strategy, which remains bullish with a target of 10700 on the Dow by year end.

NYSE Volume 4,909,767,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,148,559,000


Commodities would be expected to take a hit, especially oil, which fell by $2.12, to $77.46, but gold actually rose $1.00, to $1,142.20. Silver gained 5 cents, to $18.46 per ounce. The precious metals markets have shown a recent trend away from the dollar trade. They can now be considered almost anti-currency, as they act as a hedge against all fiat (paper-based) currencies, which just happens to be everywhere in the world.

Other then the dollar movement, there was a little bit of news that might have moved markets so severely. Tim Geithner testified to the committee looking into financial reform, and any time Timmy opens his mouth in congress, it's usually a bad thing. A couple of members actually think he should resign. Not surprisingly, most of those requests for Mr.Geithner to step aside came from Republicans.

Early in the day, the entire world was reminded that bureaucracies seldom function perfectly, as air traffic across the nation was grounded due to an FAA "glitch."

Unemployment claims data was benign, and the week come to an end with no important economic data due out on Friday, and just 35 days until Christmas.

Leading Indicators for October were down slightly, while the Philadelphia Fed index was up. We have reached what is known as an inflection point.

After the bell, Dell (DELL) announced 3rd quarter results below expectations. The stock was trading down about a point, or 6.5% in after-hours activity. Gap Stores (GPS) reported a 25% improvement in profits, but the stock was being sold off after-hours, down about 1/2 a point, or 2.5%. Shares of the retailer, which includes GAP stores and Old Navy, have more thn doubled since their lows in March.