Now that fears of another financial meltdown - a la Dubai - have subsided, world markets have bounced back nicely. Taking a look at the charts from the past three days of trading, we see the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ have all just about recovered from the swift down-kick from Friday. The Dow, in fact, made a new 52-week high today.
Most of the experts who have been covering the situation considered the Dubai dilemma to be nothing more than a hangover from last year's malaise. Certainly, the sultans and magnates in charge of one of the world's most robust commercial real estate build-outs had to know there were risks - overbuilding, high prices - but were blinded, like most of us, by the glorious profits which emanated from the global peace-time asset expansion.
While some of the projects in Dubai have been halted or scaled back, there are issues remaining to be worked out, such as rental prices, debt restructuring and all manner of price upheaval, but most of the companies and people who made investments there are well-heeled and not likely to bat much more than an upturned eyelash at the situation.
So, it's back to the risk trade, with the dollar down against the Euro mainly, and most other currencies, driving more and more money into stocks. As long as the dollar remains weakened - due to our high deficits, low interest rates and an implacable central bank (the Fed) intent on keeping things that way, stocks should have little impediment to move forward through the end of the year. What happens after that, in 2010 and beyond is another matter, though nobody seems particularly concerned about untidy matters such as inflation and the new bubble in government bonds, so long as there's money to be made in stocks, everybody's favorite game.
And while stocks have done exceedingly well, gold has outperformed everything in sight and continues to do so, today making its 25th all-time high in price. What people do not understand about the move in gold, as it usually responds to inflation - not deflation - as we are currently experiencing, is that it is a bet against all paper currencies. As long as they are floated and priced against each other, gold provides its investors with a surging supply of wealth in a hard asset. Unlike the fiat currencies, gold is tangible and its supply cannot be expanded easily. It costs more than $400 to extract one ounce of gold, so the miners, currently digging as furiously as they can, cannot produce enough supply to meet the growing demand.
The same is true, to a degree, for silver, though it is more abundant than its yellow cousin and used in more industrial situations. It has not eclipsed the highs of 2008, though today's move above $19/ounce puts it on track to shatter the $20 mark by year's end - maybe even the end of this week. Investors in the precious metals are enjoying the best price appreciation of all time.
With stocks up well from the March lows (nearly a 60% gain), all asset classes seem to be in good condition, though there's still some searching for value. Having some gold and/or silver mixed in with your paper assets has been a much better idea than just a hedge. The hard assets have actually returned quite handsomely.
Dow 10,471.58, +126.74 (1.23%)
NASDAQ 2,175.81, +31.21 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,108.86, +13.23 (1.21%)
NYSE Composite 7,212.08, +119.72 (1.69%
On the day, the simple indicators were right in line with the headline numbers. Advancers trampled all over declining issues, 4916-1650. There were 406 new highs, to just 79 new lows. Volume was the best it's been in the past two weeks; all indications are for another leg up in the markets. Besides the A-D and high-low lines, volume and the unusual pattern of the markets - in which rallies have burst forth at the beginning of each of the last four months - are screaming to investors to buy now, despite recent highs. The pattern has been for stocks to pull back 3-5% after each of the subsequent runs, but this time the Dubai incident managed to sting only about 2%. Stocks are poised for another move higher, with the Dow heading to 10,750-10,850 or higher, by year's end.
Valuations may get a little on the pricey side, but that is a normal feature of raging bull markets, of which this undoubtedly is.
NYSE Volume 5,002,317,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,199,957,750
Commodities took the dollar down trade in stride. Oil popped another $1.75, to $78.75. Gold surged $17.90, to $1,200.20 and silver vaulted 68 cents, to $19.20. As well as gold has been going, silver should outdo it over the next few months if today's outsize gain is any indication.
Investors aren't waiting for retail figures or any other metrics at this point. They are snatching up investments in a chase of performance, led by the nay-sayers who haven't had enough faith in this market. The current condition is the perfect set-up for a true blow-off topping rally, especially once the S&P clears 1115. Stocks could gain another 5% before we close out 2009.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Monday, November 30, 2009
Cyber Monday Overshadowed by Dubai Issues
The continuing worldwide real estate debt saga was revived last week when developer Dubai World announced to anyone interested that it might like to rework the terms on some of its loans. In particular, the developer of some of the most expensive and outlandish buildings and communities in the world wanted a six-month moratorium on its outstanding debt.
That message roiled markets worldwide as bankers around the globe rolled their eyes. It was as though the entire financial community was to revisit the financial crisis of 2008 that nearly crumbled the entire global structure. That was last week.
On Monday, markets worldwide recovered, on consideration that the Dubai issue would be contained. In the US, stocks spent the majority of the session in the red, but leapt into positive territory after 3:00 pm on word that Dubai World would seek to restructure $26 billion of its debt.
Crisis averted? For now, that seems to be the case, though there are still billions of dollars worth of commercial and residential real estate worldwide that is similarly upside-down, with what's owed being more than current valuations, so, debt, blow-ups similar to what's occurring in Dubai may become more and more commonplace rather than an outlier event.
Such a backdrop makes investing of any kind somewhat more risky than normal. Imagine that all assets are under scrutiny, that the valuations of everything - right down to the currency in which the assets are denominated - are of skeptical nature. That's at the crux of not only the decline in residential real estate values, but also in the rise of gold, the decline of the US dollar and the upward swing in stocks.
Wherever investors feel less risk, or more opportunity for arbitrage, that is where money will flow. Whenever there's a crisis, such as over the past five days with the Dubai issues, money flows into the US dollar, seen by many as the absolute last safe haven. On mellower days, stocks are the choice, and the dollar is sold off. Through it all, however, two constants have remained: gold is moving steadily higher; residential (and now commercial) real estate is devaluing. There's more safety, supposedly, in bricks of ore than in houses.
Realistically, neither the gold bugs or real estate speculators have all the answers. Some areas of the world are in better shape than others, obviously, but so extreme is the fear that gold is seen as a better bet than houses. In other words, the market is telling us, shouting at us, to become more liquid. Cash, gold and stocks, which can be converted readily and without much fuss, are currently preferred to hard assets like buildings, homes, and land, which cannot be moved and are not easily liquidated.
What the ongoing Dubai issue says is that the world is facing a very uncertain future, one in which value may be placed more upon the liquidity of assets rather than some intrinsic value. After all, you can live in a house. You can't do that with bars of gold, cash money or stock certificates. Thus, all trading is risky, though, bottom line, cash remains king (until that is devalued, too).
Dow 10,344.84, +34.92 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,144.60, +6.16 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,095.63, +4.14 (0.38%)
NYSE Composite 7,092.36, +22.27 (0.31%)
Simple indicators confirmed the small gains of the day. Advancing issues, which had been lagging all day, turned around and beat decliners, 3463-3031. There were 145 new highs to 96 new lows. Volume, like it or not, continues to moderate around 2 billion on the NASDAQ and 5 billion on the NYSE, in what has to be recognized as a kind of "new normal." Obviously, there are more than just a few investors - of all sizes and stripes - who have not re-entered the market after last fall's collapse. Those types can hardly be blamed. Surely some of them were completely wiped out. Many others simply prefer now to preserve cash rather than invest it. This could become all the rage as the baby boomer generation - badly burned in last year's financial conflagration - pulls back from riskier behavior as they approach retirement age.
NYSE Volume 4,935,098,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,926,715,500
Commodities snapped back as the dollar fell late in the day. The price of crude oil was also affected by news that a British yacht had been captured by Iranian sailors on November 25 and the crew are still being held. This brings into play not only international relations, but trust of the news media, as the world is just now hearing about an event 5 days old.
In any case, when the news broke late today, the price of crude catapulted higher, closing at $77.28, up $1.23. Gold advanced $7.50, to $1,183.00, with silver gaining 21 cents, to $18.54 at the close.
Anecdotal evidence from Black Friday seems to be confirming that shoppers spent slightly less than last year, though results have been mixed. Not surprisingly, nearly every report states that consumers are shopping for "value."
During times when the value of everything is in question, that ordinary people would be careful of their spending confirms the global, macro-economic outlook.
That message roiled markets worldwide as bankers around the globe rolled their eyes. It was as though the entire financial community was to revisit the financial crisis of 2008 that nearly crumbled the entire global structure. That was last week.
On Monday, markets worldwide recovered, on consideration that the Dubai issue would be contained. In the US, stocks spent the majority of the session in the red, but leapt into positive territory after 3:00 pm on word that Dubai World would seek to restructure $26 billion of its debt.
Crisis averted? For now, that seems to be the case, though there are still billions of dollars worth of commercial and residential real estate worldwide that is similarly upside-down, with what's owed being more than current valuations, so, debt, blow-ups similar to what's occurring in Dubai may become more and more commonplace rather than an outlier event.
Such a backdrop makes investing of any kind somewhat more risky than normal. Imagine that all assets are under scrutiny, that the valuations of everything - right down to the currency in which the assets are denominated - are of skeptical nature. That's at the crux of not only the decline in residential real estate values, but also in the rise of gold, the decline of the US dollar and the upward swing in stocks.
Wherever investors feel less risk, or more opportunity for arbitrage, that is where money will flow. Whenever there's a crisis, such as over the past five days with the Dubai issues, money flows into the US dollar, seen by many as the absolute last safe haven. On mellower days, stocks are the choice, and the dollar is sold off. Through it all, however, two constants have remained: gold is moving steadily higher; residential (and now commercial) real estate is devaluing. There's more safety, supposedly, in bricks of ore than in houses.
Realistically, neither the gold bugs or real estate speculators have all the answers. Some areas of the world are in better shape than others, obviously, but so extreme is the fear that gold is seen as a better bet than houses. In other words, the market is telling us, shouting at us, to become more liquid. Cash, gold and stocks, which can be converted readily and without much fuss, are currently preferred to hard assets like buildings, homes, and land, which cannot be moved and are not easily liquidated.
What the ongoing Dubai issue says is that the world is facing a very uncertain future, one in which value may be placed more upon the liquidity of assets rather than some intrinsic value. After all, you can live in a house. You can't do that with bars of gold, cash money or stock certificates. Thus, all trading is risky, though, bottom line, cash remains king (until that is devalued, too).
Dow 10,344.84, +34.92 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,144.60, +6.16 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,095.63, +4.14 (0.38%)
NYSE Composite 7,092.36, +22.27 (0.31%)
Simple indicators confirmed the small gains of the day. Advancing issues, which had been lagging all day, turned around and beat decliners, 3463-3031. There were 145 new highs to 96 new lows. Volume, like it or not, continues to moderate around 2 billion on the NASDAQ and 5 billion on the NYSE, in what has to be recognized as a kind of "new normal." Obviously, there are more than just a few investors - of all sizes and stripes - who have not re-entered the market after last fall's collapse. Those types can hardly be blamed. Surely some of them were completely wiped out. Many others simply prefer now to preserve cash rather than invest it. This could become all the rage as the baby boomer generation - badly burned in last year's financial conflagration - pulls back from riskier behavior as they approach retirement age.
NYSE Volume 4,935,098,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,926,715,500
Commodities snapped back as the dollar fell late in the day. The price of crude oil was also affected by news that a British yacht had been captured by Iranian sailors on November 25 and the crew are still being held. This brings into play not only international relations, but trust of the news media, as the world is just now hearing about an event 5 days old.
In any case, when the news broke late today, the price of crude catapulted higher, closing at $77.28, up $1.23. Gold advanced $7.50, to $1,183.00, with silver gaining 21 cents, to $18.54 at the close.
Anecdotal evidence from Black Friday seems to be confirming that shoppers spent slightly less than last year, though results have been mixed. Not surprisingly, nearly every report states that consumers are shopping for "value."
During times when the value of everything is in question, that ordinary people would be careful of their spending confirms the global, macro-economic outlook.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Short Session, Big Losses on Dubai Debt
Friday's abbreviated session answered the question of why stocks did not advance much in Wednesday's pre-holiday trading, when all of the economic news was positive. Overhanging the market was word from Dubai - on Wednesday - that the government was requesting a six-month moratorium on interest payments, mostly from its major real estate developer, Dubai World.
While the news did not noticeably affect markets in the US, the news shook Asian and European markets violently on Thursday. US stock exchanges were closed for Thanksgiving.
Quoting the NY Times:
At the open on Friday, stock futures were indicating a massive sell-off, with Dow futures down more than 200 points. After an initial selling spree which sent the Dow down more than 230 points, cooler heads prevailed for a time, bringing the indices back to some level of respectability and calm. By the close, however, fears of another round of banking crises had investors scurrying for the exits, not wanting to hold positions over a weekend in which many of these issues would be pondered.
Dow 10,309.92, -154.48 (1.48%)
NASDAQ 2,138.44, -37.61 (1.73%)
S&P 500 1,091.49, -19.14 (1.72%)
NYSE Composite 7,070.09, -162.03 (2.24%)
On the day, declining issues far outpaced advancers, 5211-1086. New highs held a slim edge over new lows, 98-85. Volume was only average, indicating a hope that markets would return to a more normal tone in days ahead. There was little panic to speak of, though every sector finished in the red.
NYSE Volume 2,846,343,000
NASDAQ Volume 972,038,750
Commodities took the bigger hit. Oil tumbled $3.06, to $74.90, its lowest close in months. Gold fell $12.60, to $1,176.00, though the price had fallen by as much as $30 during the day. Silver slipped 47 cents, holding at $18.34.
What Dubai means to US banking interests is a relatively small matter, as only Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) hold anything approaching what would be considered large obligations. The general fear - a holdover from last year's major meltdown - is a more severe liquidity issue, cascading across the financial landscape in unpaid loans and the roll-over of resultant guarantees (Credit Default Swaps) which would put more banks at risk.
While it is possible that another severe shock could ensue, it's more likely that central banks will intervene in the interest of the banks, propping them up with more guarantees and looser credit facilities, much like last year's rescue. Still, there are palpable fears out there, that the entire system is prone to disruptions like this as more emerging markets face similar issues.
Paper money rolling off printing presses at high speed can only delay the inevitable. Eventually, losses must be taken or parties made whole. The most probable outcome is continuation of the deflationary spiral, which the central bankers of the world wish to avoid.
The simplest way to understand the issue is in terms of mortgages. As more money is pumped into the system, chasing the bad, assets - everything from stocks to houses - become less valuable. The home purchased for $200,000 a year ago is only worth $160,000, an so on. Devaluing currencies to reflect lower asset values, a hard, painful choice, seems the proper medicine, but one which world banking and political leaders have yet refused to consider.
While the news did not noticeably affect markets in the US, the news shook Asian and European markets violently on Thursday. US stock exchanges were closed for Thanksgiving.
Quoting the NY Times:
According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, foreign banks have $130 billion of exposure to the United Arab Emirates, with Britain having the largest exposure, $51 billion. Banks in the United States have debts of $13 billion.
At the open on Friday, stock futures were indicating a massive sell-off, with Dow futures down more than 200 points. After an initial selling spree which sent the Dow down more than 230 points, cooler heads prevailed for a time, bringing the indices back to some level of respectability and calm. By the close, however, fears of another round of banking crises had investors scurrying for the exits, not wanting to hold positions over a weekend in which many of these issues would be pondered.
Dow 10,309.92, -154.48 (1.48%)
NASDAQ 2,138.44, -37.61 (1.73%)
S&P 500 1,091.49, -19.14 (1.72%)
NYSE Composite 7,070.09, -162.03 (2.24%)
On the day, declining issues far outpaced advancers, 5211-1086. New highs held a slim edge over new lows, 98-85. Volume was only average, indicating a hope that markets would return to a more normal tone in days ahead. There was little panic to speak of, though every sector finished in the red.
NYSE Volume 2,846,343,000
NASDAQ Volume 972,038,750
Commodities took the bigger hit. Oil tumbled $3.06, to $74.90, its lowest close in months. Gold fell $12.60, to $1,176.00, though the price had fallen by as much as $30 during the day. Silver slipped 47 cents, holding at $18.34.
What Dubai means to US banking interests is a relatively small matter, as only Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) hold anything approaching what would be considered large obligations. The general fear - a holdover from last year's major meltdown - is a more severe liquidity issue, cascading across the financial landscape in unpaid loans and the roll-over of resultant guarantees (Credit Default Swaps) which would put more banks at risk.
While it is possible that another severe shock could ensue, it's more likely that central banks will intervene in the interest of the banks, propping them up with more guarantees and looser credit facilities, much like last year's rescue. Still, there are palpable fears out there, that the entire system is prone to disruptions like this as more emerging markets face similar issues.
Paper money rolling off printing presses at high speed can only delay the inevitable. Eventually, losses must be taken or parties made whole. The most probable outcome is continuation of the deflationary spiral, which the central bankers of the world wish to avoid.
The simplest way to understand the issue is in terms of mortgages. As more money is pumped into the system, chasing the bad, assets - everything from stocks to houses - become less valuable. The home purchased for $200,000 a year ago is only worth $160,000, an so on. Devaluing currencies to reflect lower asset values, a hard, painful choice, seems the proper medicine, but one which world banking and political leaders have yet refused to consider.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Wading Through Data, Stocks Up in Light Trading
For the second straight session, investors were met with a slew of economic reports prior to, and then, during the trading session which influenced decisions on stocks. However, with the Thanksgiving holiday on the horizon, volume was so light that no reasonable conclusions can be drawn from the day's results.
As it was, stocks returned modest gains which more than offset Tuesday's slim losses, though given the positive tone of the news, one would normally have expected much better.
Dow 10,464.40, +30.69 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 2,176.05, +6.87 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,110.63, +4.98 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 7,232.12, +61.86 (0.86%)
Advancing issues led decliners, 3849-2576, and new highs beat new lows by an impressive 332-66. Despite the horrendously low volume, sentiment, driven by some key numbers, was quite positive.
NYSE Volume 3,479,942,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,414,185,375
Among the data received in the morning was an unexpected drop in initial unemployment claims, down to 466,000, when expectations were for around 500,000. Also positive were the readings on personal income (up 0.2%) and personal spending (up 0.7%). The lone negative result was in durable orders, which showed a 0.6% decline for October, though most of the loss was based on lower defense spending, which, in the long term, is likely a positive. Having the government spending less on arms for war would likely rank high on the list wishes of most Americans.
After the session began, bew home sales also showed an unexpected uptick, to a seasonally-adjusted 430,000 units in October. Even with those solid numbers in place, stocks showed barely any upward interest, meandering along in a very narrow range throughout the day.
The US dollar show weakness once again, boosting gold prices to new records. Gold closed up $20.60, to $1,188.00. Silver gained 31 cents, to finish at $18.80. Oil, after a sluggish morning, was up $1.94, to $77.96.
Overall, there simply was not enough money going into stocks to create much of a stir. Despite the slow trade, however, the Dow and S&P managed to finish at 13-month highs.
Markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and re-open for a short session, from 9:30 am until 1:00 pm ET on Friday.
As it was, stocks returned modest gains which more than offset Tuesday's slim losses, though given the positive tone of the news, one would normally have expected much better.
Dow 10,464.40, +30.69 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 2,176.05, +6.87 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,110.63, +4.98 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 7,232.12, +61.86 (0.86%)
Advancing issues led decliners, 3849-2576, and new highs beat new lows by an impressive 332-66. Despite the horrendously low volume, sentiment, driven by some key numbers, was quite positive.
NYSE Volume 3,479,942,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,414,185,375
Among the data received in the morning was an unexpected drop in initial unemployment claims, down to 466,000, when expectations were for around 500,000. Also positive were the readings on personal income (up 0.2%) and personal spending (up 0.7%). The lone negative result was in durable orders, which showed a 0.6% decline for October, though most of the loss was based on lower defense spending, which, in the long term, is likely a positive. Having the government spending less on arms for war would likely rank high on the list wishes of most Americans.
After the session began, bew home sales also showed an unexpected uptick, to a seasonally-adjusted 430,000 units in October. Even with those solid numbers in place, stocks showed barely any upward interest, meandering along in a very narrow range throughout the day.
The US dollar show weakness once again, boosting gold prices to new records. Gold closed up $20.60, to $1,188.00. Silver gained 31 cents, to finish at $18.80. Oil, after a sluggish morning, was up $1.94, to $77.96.
Overall, there simply was not enough money going into stocks to create much of a stir. Despite the slow trade, however, the Dow and S&P managed to finish at 13-month highs.
Markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and re-open for a short session, from 9:30 am until 1:00 pm ET on Friday.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Stocks Slightly in Red Amidst Heavy Economic Data
With investors digesting an avalanche of economic data, stocks spent the entire session in the red, even though the major indices finished with modest losses by day's end.
The overall tone was set early on, when the government reported its first revision to 3rd quarter GDP, which came in exactly at the estimates, showing the economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace. That seemingly wasn't good enough, as futures fell immediately after the reading.
At 9:00 am, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a decline of 9.4% for September, slightly more than estimates. That reading didn't help matters, nor did a positive reading on consumer confidence - 49.5, up from 48.7 in October - at 10:00 am.
The negative tone was exacerbated by a stronger US Dollar, discouraging the normal risk trade. At 2:00 pm, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting of the Fed (Nov. 3-4) were released, and that seemed to calm some nerves into the close. What was revealed in the minutes was unsurprising, as the Fed saw industrial production improvements, slight increases in personal expenditures, low inflation risk and continuing high unemployment.
There was some actual discussion amongst the participants concerning the ever-decreasing value of the US Dollar, though overall the committee was unfazed by what they say as a natural, orderly unwinding of "safe-haven demand" as the economic conditions stabilized around the world. With that kind of language coming straight from the Fed, investors should be quite a bit less concerned that the dollar is going "off the deep end" in relation to other currencies, and about to lose its favored reserve status.
Dow 10,433.71, -17.24 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,169.18, -6.83 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,105.65, -0.59 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,170.26, -16.07 (0.22%)
On the day, simple indicators were in line with the headline numbers, with declining issues beating back advancers, 3658-2799. New highs exceeded new lows, 186-65, and volume continued to poke along at the new-normal pace.
NYSE Volume 4,345,491,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,632,375
Commodities were mixed, as they have been in recent days. Crude oil futures continued to slip, down $1.54, to $76.02, the lowest level in more than two months. Gold gained $1.90, to $1,166.60, though silver dropped 16 cents, to $18.49.
Tomorrow's trading will again be influenced by economic data, including readings on personal income, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, another consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan, new home sales and crude inventories. With all that to consider throughout the day, traders will likely be giving thanks just to get away from the flurry of facts, numbers and statistics being thrown about.
After the one-day holiday on Thursday, markets will be open for a half-session, with everything shutting down at 1:00 pm on Black Friday. With retail's biggest one-day event as a backdrop, the focus will be turning from drab economic data to how robust or dull the holiday shopping season will be. Estimates have been somewhat tempered, with most calling for only slight improvement from last year, which was one of the worst on record.
Any anecdotal evidence from Black Friday will make for another spurt in the indices, which are close to a high point, even though the usual talk of the market being "tired" has not surfaced of late. There could be another 5-10% or more left to run before the year is out, as stocks do not seem to want to stay down for long, as has been the case since the beginning of the rally back in March.
The overall tone was set early on, when the government reported its first revision to 3rd quarter GDP, which came in exactly at the estimates, showing the economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace. That seemingly wasn't good enough, as futures fell immediately after the reading.
At 9:00 am, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a decline of 9.4% for September, slightly more than estimates. That reading didn't help matters, nor did a positive reading on consumer confidence - 49.5, up from 48.7 in October - at 10:00 am.
The negative tone was exacerbated by a stronger US Dollar, discouraging the normal risk trade. At 2:00 pm, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting of the Fed (Nov. 3-4) were released, and that seemed to calm some nerves into the close. What was revealed in the minutes was unsurprising, as the Fed saw industrial production improvements, slight increases in personal expenditures, low inflation risk and continuing high unemployment.
There was some actual discussion amongst the participants concerning the ever-decreasing value of the US Dollar, though overall the committee was unfazed by what they say as a natural, orderly unwinding of "safe-haven demand" as the economic conditions stabilized around the world. With that kind of language coming straight from the Fed, investors should be quite a bit less concerned that the dollar is going "off the deep end" in relation to other currencies, and about to lose its favored reserve status.
Dow 10,433.71, -17.24 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,169.18, -6.83 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,105.65, -0.59 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,170.26, -16.07 (0.22%)
On the day, simple indicators were in line with the headline numbers, with declining issues beating back advancers, 3658-2799. New highs exceeded new lows, 186-65, and volume continued to poke along at the new-normal pace.
NYSE Volume 4,345,491,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,632,375
Commodities were mixed, as they have been in recent days. Crude oil futures continued to slip, down $1.54, to $76.02, the lowest level in more than two months. Gold gained $1.90, to $1,166.60, though silver dropped 16 cents, to $18.49.
Tomorrow's trading will again be influenced by economic data, including readings on personal income, weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, another consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan, new home sales and crude inventories. With all that to consider throughout the day, traders will likely be giving thanks just to get away from the flurry of facts, numbers and statistics being thrown about.
After the one-day holiday on Thursday, markets will be open for a half-session, with everything shutting down at 1:00 pm on Black Friday. With retail's biggest one-day event as a backdrop, the focus will be turning from drab economic data to how robust or dull the holiday shopping season will be. Estimates have been somewhat tempered, with most calling for only slight improvement from last year, which was one of the worst on record.
Any anecdotal evidence from Black Friday will make for another spurt in the indices, which are close to a high point, even though the usual talk of the market being "tired" has not surfaced of late. There could be another 5-10% or more left to run before the year is out, as stocks do not seem to want to stay down for long, as has been the case since the beginning of the rally back in March.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
