Our National Disgrace: the United States Congress

Sorry to take time out here to vent, but, after watching less than ten minutes of DC delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton vain attempts to vilify Toyota executives in a hearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee made me ponder the usefulness of this formerly-august body.

This is the gang of 535, with a national approval rating hovering around 20% that has taken as much money from lobbyists as legally-allowed (and probably more), sat back and watched as the banking interests took over and nearly destroyed the country's economy, and hasn't done much of anything useful or in the best interests of the American people since the early 50s, or, most of my lifetime.

Listening to the moronic Barney Frank drool his way through Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's required testimony today was quite enough. Frank and his fellow goof-balls proved they have about the same working knowledge of financial matters as your average 3rd grader, and even that might give 3rd graders a bum rap.

But this Toyota nonsense is the ultimate disgrace of our country. I feel I must publicly apologize to the people of Japan for the actions of our congress and other government regulatory agencies. I'm sorry, Japan! I didn't vote for any of these fools, and they certainly don't represent me or my beliefs.

Dragging the head of Toyota and other executives before a congressional committee is just a continuance of the massive government smear campaign designed to make people stop thinking about our destroyed economy and throw blame on the "evil" Toyota executives.

It's the worst kind of race-baiting and every member of that committee should resign in disgrace. Toyota's problems may be serious, but they're surely not any worse than other carmakers faults. The timing of this entire sordid folly seems just about appropriate for the idiots who are supposed to be "serving the people." Just months ago, General Motors and Chrysler received - and haven't yet paid back - billions of dollars from taxpayers to salvage what was left of their disastrous businesses.

Soon thereafter came rumors of Toyota's "sudden acceleration" issues, and the game was on. Now congress, attempting to look serious, brings Toyota execs in to be chastised publicly. It's just one more sad day - piled upon hundreds if not thousands before it - of congress publicly displaying their absolute incompetence.

Is there any wonder why so many "tea parties" and splinter political groups have emerged over the past few years. Congress has abrogated their authority, shirked their responsibilities and now can only pander to the lowest, most base emotions of the public throng. They are a national disgrace and the sooner they are run out of office and out of town, the better.

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Down on Wall Street, markets got an unexpected bump up early in the day. Without any reason, the Dow jumped about 90 points in a span of about 20 minutes, right around 10:30 am. The other indices were also goosed higher, presumably by insiders or the notorious PPT, right during Bernanke's testimony.

These kinds of moves have gotten to be old hat by now, and accepted as normal by most market participants, but they are surely designed to keep stocks grinding along and not falling into the slop where many of them belong.

Yesterday, the news on two fronts - housing and consumer sentiment - sent the indices screeching into a hole. Today, without any catalyst, they practically erased all of Tuesday's losses, which is why I have been out of stocks mostly since 2007, and now, permanently. There's no rhyme nor reason to the equity markets currently, thus, there's no reason to be even one penny invested in stocks. There will be a fall this year, and it's likely to rival the collapse from September 2008 to March 2009, regardless of the efforts of big money players or government miscreants.

The only data release of any importance was negative: New home sales for January fell 11.2% month-over-month in their worst monthly downturn since January 2009. So, naturally, stocks should go up?

Dow 10,374.16, +91.75 (0.89%)
NASDAQ 2,235.90, +22.46 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,105.24, +10.64 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 7,030.67, +56.07 (0.80%)

Advancers slaughtered decliners, 4443-2038. New highs: 254; new lows: 59. Volume was moderate.

NYSE Volume 4,734,957,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,119,022,000

Commodities traded in different directions. Crude oil, even after the government reported that inventories rose by 3.03 million barrels, gained $1.24, to $80.21. To point up just how manipulated and corrupt the crude oil futures exchange is, here is an article expressing the opinion that crude rose because the dollar was weak. The article also points out that the American Petroleum Institute announced Tuesday that crude inventories had fallen by 3.1 million barrels.

Up, down, who cares? As long as the oil barons continue cashing their checks. No need to worry that persistently high fuel prices over the past seven years have helped cripple the US economy.

So, if the weak dollar caused oil prices to rise, why then, did gold lose $6.40, and drop to $1,096.80. Apparently, gold is no longer tracking the dollar and responding inversely to it. Or, maybe it's all just speculation, fun and games. Incidentally, silver was up 17 cents, at $15.98 per ounce.

And just so I know the world isn't completely off its axis (although close to spinning out of control), I see Fast Money is back on the air on CNBC. What, no curling? Maybe somebody actually took my impassioned plea from yesterday seriously.

Real Estate, Low Confidence Crush Stocks

It didn't take long for the market to re-establish some sense of direction after drifting sideways the past two sessions.

Hopes for an economic recovery were dashed with the release of two separate reports. First, at 9:00 am, the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index showed an overall 3.2% decline from a year ago. While several cities - San Francisco, San Diego, Denver, Washington, DC and Dallas - showed home prices improving modestly, most of the cities in the survey displayed continued carnage, with the worst being Las Vegas (-20.6%), followed by Tampa (-11.0%), Detroit (-10.3%), Miami (-9.9%) and Seattle, Washington (-7.8%).

Widespread continuing weakness in the real estate market has been attributed to poor underwriting standards during the boom years, 2000-2006, though more and more declining property values are being cited as an effect of worsening unemployment conditions. Foreclosures keep rising without abating in most large cities and even more so in smaller communities which have a less-robust employer base. Even though delinquencies are reported, banks have been reluctant to foreclose, and there's widespread belief that a so-called "shadow inventory" of non-foreclosed and bank owned property still awaits to hit the market with a deadening thud.

Even a small addition of unsold properties reaching various markets over the next six to eighteen months would send real estate prices down even lower, but the quantities may be more of a torrent rather than a trickle. With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already in deep trouble, the residential real estate market is looking more and more like a wasteland and less like a "recovering" market.

That report alone was not enough to dampen spirits on Wall Street, as stocks, after opening slightly lower, were up steadily in the early going, until the second blast of negative news reached. When the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February came in at 46.0, down from 56.5 in January, all hope for a continuation of any rally was lost. Commentators on CNBC and elsewhere were aghast at the "unexpected" decline, mostly by the size of it. The one-month drop of more than 10 points was the most anyone could remember.

Ancillary indices, such as the present situation, also dropped sharply, from 25.2 to 19.4, its lowest level in 27 years. The expectations index declined to 63.8, from 77.3 in January. That was more than enough to send the Dow to a 100-point loss, with the other major indices in tow.

Those two reports brought the bears and bearish analysts out from the woodwork. The sheer number of people expressing negative viewpoints - on TV, radio, the internet and in print - was stunning.

Dow 10,282.41, -100.97 (0.97%)
NASDAQ 2,213.44, -28.59 (1.28%)
S&P 500 1,094.60, -13.41 (1.21%)
NYSE Composite 6,974.60, -103.93 (1.47%)

Declining issues took the edge over advancers, 4457-2057. New highs came back to earth at 202, with only 31 new lows, though, it must be pointed out that these figures are going to be skewed wildly by comparisons to stocks at market bottoms from last year. It won't be until late March or later that the high-low metric will offer much of a reliable glimpse. Volume was a bit better than yesterday's no-show, but there is now likely much more downside risk than in recent days.

NYSE Volume 4,971,602,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,139,569,750

Commodities took it on the chin as well. Crude oil for April delivery, in just the second day of the contract, fell $1.45, to $78.86. Gold lost $10.10, to close at $1,103.00. Silver fell 34 cents, to $15.91.

The onslaught of data today may be just the beginning of poor economic news heading to kill off the incipient rally in equities. While Wall Street may be reveling, most of Main Street is reeling. The persistent and deep declines in prices and markets will leave no asset class untouched, equities and commodities included.

Be aware that stocks could tumble off another cliff at any time without warning. The US and global markets have not made enough real, structural changes and are not yet strong enough to offset the overwhelming deflationary spiral that continues to plague economies from households to cities and states, to entire nations.

In the meantime, could somebody please tell the programming executives at CNBC that curling has to be the most uninteresting, boring, exasperatingly dull event to ever be afforded significant air time? Enough, already!

Stocks in Hold 'em Mode

There haven't been many slower trading days than today in the past 2-3 years, and stocks suffered from a near-total lack of interest on the session.

Maybe it's just a sign of the times, but everybody seems to be waiting for some reliable data points upon which to trade. Either that, or the markets are just stuck with a bad case of cabin fever, with traders itching to stretch out and move, though the weather isn't going to permit it any time soon.

As for reliable data points, there were two news releases, though neither could be considered reliable or tradable.

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predicted that the economy would grow by just over 3% in 2010 and 2011. They further detail that job growth would soon return for US business, offering predictions of average job growth of 50,000 per month in the 1st quarter of 2010 and 103,000 per month for the remainder of the year.

Those figures nearly match the ones released by the Obama administration just a week or two ago.

On Friday, the FDIC announced that four more banks had failed, bringing the total number of bank failures this year to 20. There were 140 bank closures in 2009, and the prediction is for 200 to go under in 2010.

Taken together, there's a real concern that the economic crisis that nearly crumbled the financial system in 2008 is still not fully functioning, though it is working well enough for business economists to make semi-rosy predictions. Predictions, like opinions, however, are not unique and the numbers tossed out by the NABE might be nothing more than educated guesses rather than appropriate measures of risk in the system and the realities of the day.

Dull markets are usually not playable, but, unless there's some movement to the upside, the bears may be emboldened by what appears to be widespread weakness across a wide swath of industries. The political standstill in Washington certainly isn't helping bulls any, either.

Dow 10,383.38, -18.97 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,242.03. -1.84 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,108.01, -1.16 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 7,078.53, -4.72 (0.07%)

Advancing issues beat decliners by a small margin, 3326-3179. There were 366 new highs and 31 new lows. Volume, as previously stated, was anemic.

NYSE Volume 4,244,704,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,818,306,000

Commodities were mixed, with oil up 39 cents, to $80.16, gold down $9.00, at $1,113.10, and silver off 18 cents, to $16.26. This persistent low-volume pattern might be a regular feature of trading until there's sufficient evidence to elicit moves one way or the other. Considering the prevailing economic and political landscape, there could be little movement in either direction for some time.

Fed Discount Hike No Issue

The Fed's decision to hike the discount rate (announced after the close on Thursday) created a bit of a stir in Japan's markets, but barely elicited a yawn in the US. Market participants shrugged off the Federal reserve's surprise announcement to hike the emergency rate at the discount window from half a percent to 3/4 percent (0.75) and dial back the repayment time from 30 days to 24 hours - the normal time period for what used to be known as "overnight" loans - and pulled markets into positive territory for the fourth straight session.

PIMCO's Bill Gross believes that the "surprise" Fed move was simply to appease inflation hawks on the Fed's Board of Governors, and that real rates would remain low.

Dow 10,402.35, +9.45 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,243.87, +2.16 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,109.17, +2.42 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 7,083.25, +2.87 (0.04%)

Despite the tame headline numbers, advancers pounded decliners, 3612-2828, and new highs soared past new lows, 290-30. Volume was a bit above normal, owing to February options expiration.

NYSE Volume 4,586,752,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,132,987,000

Oil continued its absurd price gains, picking up 93 cents, to $79.99. Analysts believe as much as $30-35 in the price of a barrel of crude is due to speculation. Demand has been slack for months and there has been ample supply as well. The control of the oil futures markets by a handful of participants has distorted the true pricing by quite a degree, to he dismay of many a driver.

Gold gained $3.30, to $1,122.00, and silver bumped higher by 35 cents, to $16.41.

If the Fed's action was a signal that inflation was on the horizon, January CPI data might argue otherwise. Consumer prices gained just 0.2% in the month, with core prices - excluding food and energy - fell 0.1. These figures came in stark contrast to yesterday's release of PPI, which were higher on a relative basis.

Since the Fed's discount window-dressing was more symbolism than actual rate-adjusting, the inflation-deflation debate is likely to rage onward for months. Eventually, the deflationists are probably more correct in their overall assessment of the current condition than the market-oriented inflationists.

Is Resistance Futile?

Chartists and technical analysts are fond of using the terms support and resistance when tracking trends in either individual stocks or indices. The terms are widely understood by the investing community, representing key levels for buying and/or selling.

The S&P is said to be close to resistance at 1108, though it appears very likely that this level could be taken out quite easily, if the market remains on its current trajectory. Seems like stocks are all the rage right now, the media having convinced enough people that the economy is on the mend and all will be good down the road of recovery.

Now, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary, especially the absurd notion that producer prices are rising at all. This was expressed in glaring terms by the PPI data from january, which showed a rise of 1.4% in annualized terms. That number had the inflationistas bellowing, though their howling was largely dinned by the shrieks from the initial unemployment claims figures, which, incidentally, were reported during a wicked snowstorm in the Northeast, though most of the reporting is actually done by phone or computer. The number of new unemployment filings was 473,000, a big jump from the 442,000 reported the week prior.

Normally, in a 3.5% GDP, 5% unemployment environment, those number would be about 200,000 or less, so the economy still appears to be bleeding jobs rather than creating them. We were all informed countless times by the financial literati that unemployment was a lagging indicator, though that's a suspect notion, so, we shouldn't be too concerned, should we?

Government and media sources also declared the recession over in the third quarter of last year, when Cash of Clunkers helped push the GDP to somewhere around 2.1% for the quarter. Since that, was, OK, September, we'll say, shouldn't the employment data be more robust, now that we are five months hence?

Of course none of this matters if you question the actual numbers that are routinely tossed about by the feds, states, media and other organizations which track such things. Jobs should not be lagging if US BUSINESSES are growing. Otherwise, it's just accounting gimmicks, cost-cutting and downsizing.

Nevertheless, those intrepid Wall Street investors continue to dive into equities, mostly on any decline in the US dollar, like today, and Tuesday. The bad, unsustainable and eventually self-destructive carry trade is still on, so they party on.

Dow 10,392.90, +83.66 (0.81%)
NASDAQ 2,241.71, +15.42 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,106.75, +7.24 (0.66%)
NYSE Composite 7,080.38, +45.18 (0.64%)

Advancing issues led decliners, 4177-2270, while new highs beat new lows, 202-30. Once again, the new lows are being squashed by comparisons to last year's bottom. Realistically, there should be very few, and there are. Give this indicator wide latitude in your analysis because it is very skewed to the positive right now. After March 9, and especially by June, the numbers will be much more reliable. Volume was light. The NYSE recorded its third slowest trading day of the year. A good deal of positioning is taking place, and certainly, players are hedged to the max. News flows and data will be critical over the next 30-45 days for determining direction.

NYSE Volume 4,480,385,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,048,994,500

Crude oil continued its ridiculous path, gaining $1.12, to $78.45. Gold dropped $1.10, to $1,119.00. Silver fell 8 cents to $16.02.

Unless stocks really tank on Friday, this week will go down as the second straight gainer and third overall, against four losing weeks. Good luck.