Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Stocks Sucking Wind; Oil Futures Out of Control

The persistent pattern of sideways trade held sway one more day on Wall Street, despite the ADP private employment report offering a glimpse of Friday's government non-farm payroll data. The ADP report showed employers shedding 20,000 jobs in February, which was better than most analysts were seeking. Still, those numbers - and a rise in ISM service index from 50.5 to 53.0 from January to February - hardly moved the needle.

Naturally, there were a good share of both winners and losers, but the overall markets are about as stagnant as a Louisiana swamp. The problem is that these stocks represent real money, currently not working very hard for anybody.

Dow 10,396.76, -9.22 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,280.68, -0.11 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,118.79, +0.48 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,164.66, +28.69 (0.40%)


Advancing issues beat back decliners once again, 3575-2890, though the margin was not nearly as large as in recent days. New highs led new lows, 555-45. Volume was led by the NASDAQ. The NYSE continues to exhibit signs of flagging interest with low volume a daily occurrence.

NYSE Volume 4,475,734,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,474,973,500


Meanwhile, commodities, especially those in the energy sector, were spinning out of control. Oil shot up another $1.27, to $80.95, with April wholesale gas futures at multi-month highs of $2.25/gallon. Gold gained $6.60, to $1,144.00. Silver was up 25 cents, to $17.31.

The outlook for the February non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning continues to be clouded by forecasts that snow storms during the month may have skewed the data significantly. Also in play is the hiring of workers for the 2010 census. That was supposed to boost employment significantly over 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year, though the effect probably won't be felt until the march data is released a month from now.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Stuck In Neutral

By tomorrow morning's opening bell, there will be some sense of direction, and that sense is likely - based on observations from market sources - to be lower. The reason stocks may not be such good buys as of tomorrow morning is fear that Friday's non-farm payroll data for February will disappoint, and that tomorrow morning's 8:30 am ET release of ADP's private payroll figure will offer a sneak preview.

The Obama administration, rather than actually trying to mend the broken employment conditions in the US, has been resorting lately to downplaying expectations, which can only mean that Friday's numbers will be somewhere below estimates of the economy shedding 20-45,000 jobs. Some have actually suggested that the figure could fall into a range of 175-200,000 more job losses, of which the Obamanites will claim had much to do with recent snowstorms that plagued the Northeast through the month.

Well, if there's anything politicians can do well, it's disappoint, and blame it on the weather. Snowstorms, hurricanes, droughts, windy conditions do not affect a stable employment picture, and what we've got is an unstable one. Add to that the utter incompetence at the top - not only the administration, but congress as well, and there's a sure recipe for disaster.

In the meantime, investors and traders marked time in anticipation of the results. Wednesday's warm-up with the ADP report will surely shed some light; how much is unknown, though the gauge, issued at the beginning of each month two days prior to the government data, has proven highly reliable in its short life (less than a year).

Dow 10,405.98, +2.19 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,280.79, +7.22 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,118.31, +2.60 (0.23%)
NYSE Compos 7,135.97, +35.22 (0.50%)


Making the tiny headline numbers appear understated, gainers outpaced losers on the day by a good spread, 4477-2023, better than 2:1. The number of new highs was once again elevated, at 624; there were only 48 new lows. Those number will change dramatically by the end of the month, more than likely in favor of new lows. Volume on the session was very strong on the NASDAQ, not so good on the NYSE.

NYSE Volume 4,788,700,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,683,460,000


Commodities are once again acting like demand is robust, though the current price regime is more about trading, seasonality and short-term profits rather than real supply-demand metrics. Oil was up $1.02, to $79.72. Gold gained $19.00, to $1,137.30, while silver shot up 59 cents, to $17.06. While pricing in the energy complex can be chalked up to seasonal conditions (doesn't fuel always go up when people drive more in the Spring?), the metals are retracing their gains from last year in a technical move that probably will end up pushing against new highs. At some point, gold investors will realize that their precious metal is in just another bubble, created by speculators and quick-buck artists. After rising for nine straight years, gold's price is reflective of two things: greed, and widespread distrust of current monetary and fiscal policies of countries using fiat currencies.

If the detractors of floating exchange rates, the Euro experiment and gobs of debt around the world are correct, the precious metals will be even more so in months and years ahead. The wild card in their calculations, however, is global deflation, which would undermine almost any asset, including gold, silver and platinum. Time will tell.

Monday, March 1, 2010

March Comes in Like a Lion

Following weeks of seemingly-relentless snowstorms and market turmoil, investors looked forward (maybe) to new gains with the coming of Spring - now just 19 days away.

The NASDAQ was the clear winner on the day, breaking loose from its moorings at the 50-day moving average and powering ahead for a return of better than 1.5%. The Dow was the laggard of the group, though it may be more indicative of where stocks are really headed: nowhere fast. Both the Dow and S&P 500 indices are stuck at or near their 50-day moving averages in anticipation of Friday's key non farm payroll report for February.

Overall, market conditions are vastly improved from a year ago, though the overhang of debt - federal, state, Greek, household and otherwise - still remains prominent on investor minds. The question remains whether the recovery is actually providing progress or is still a mirage, a house of debt cards that eventually must tumble. Most investors - for today, at least - see the glass as half full. A positive employment report would likely send stocks through the recent January highs, setting off even more speculative market play. The chances for such an event seem very good, given the government's recent effort to manage both expectations and the massaging of key data.

Current expectations are for job losses in February to maintain their level of between 20 and 50,000, which would actually be not very good news, so the government and Wall Street could tag-team to new levels if the data can show an actual increase in the number of people working for a living in the USA. We'll all know by Friday morning, but a good indicator will be ADP's private payroll report on Wednesday, also looking for a decline, albeit, a smaller one.

Meanwhile, cash remains king of all assets, especially with the US dollar continuing to gain versus most other currencies. While the US may have a bad cold, the rest of the world (especially Europe) is suffering from anything ranging from common flu to the bubonic plague.

Notwithstanding the NASDAQ, stocks may be hard-pressed to reach beyond levels seen on February 19, the last interim high, still overhead. Many stocks are approaching p/e levels usually reserved for hot tech stocks in early stages of growth. When stocks such as Home Depot are trading at 20 times earnings, there should be cause for caution and requisite concern. The markets are still at inflection points, and the general trend lower has not been broken.

That stocks may be stuck should come as no surprise after last year's spectacular run-up off the crash. We stand just 6 trading days away from the 1-year anniversary of the market bottom, a notable event.

Dow 10,403.79, +78.53 (0.76%)
NASDAQ 2,273.57, +35.31 (1.58%)
S&P 500 1,115.71, +11.22 (1.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,100.75, +65.71 (0.93%)


Advancers dominated declining issues by a margin of better than 3:1, with 5009 stocks higher and 1528 lower. There were 534 new highs, owing to the comparisons to last year, against just 48 new lows. Volume was very solid on the NASDAQ, but below average on the NYSE.

NYSE Volume 4,388,033,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,373,148,500


For a change, oil actually traded lower, down 90 cents, to $78.76. The metals remained about even, with gold losing 60 cents, to $1,118.30, and silver down 6 cents, at $16.46. More than a few analysts are calling for higher commodity prices, though the deflationists will stick to their guns, expressing the unpopular belief that prices of assets cannot rise in an environment dominated by deficits, debt and destruction of wealth, still ongoing.

Stock traders made the best of the day, though there really is still no major catalyst for another move higher. In fact, housing continues to stagger along, with construction spending falling for the third straight month, down 0.6% in January.

According to the Associated General Contractors of America, construction hit a 6-year low in 2009, led by huge declines in lodging, retail and office building. While not attempting to argue with the facts, private construction spending can actually get worse in 2010, as there are still no signs that the flagging economy is doing anything other than simply bumping along the bottom.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Thin Trading, Stocks Higher

Despite another sour report on Existing Home Sales for January - off 7.2% - investors and speculators bid up stocks slightly on the final trading day of February.

Following the release of the housing data at 10:00 am, stocks sank to their lows of the day, but, as has been the case recently, the not-quite-invisible hand of the PPT or other erstwhile stock manipulators pushed the index to its high of the day in less than 30 minutes, a move of roughly 75 points on the Dow.

After that initial burst of despair and excitement, stocks vacillated just above the unchanged mark for the remainder of a lackluster session, one with even lower trading volume than normal due to severe winter storms in the Northeast. Also, just moments before the closing bell, word that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake had struck off Japan seemed to rattle traders, selling off a roughly 20 point gain in the final five minutes.

Dow 10,325.26, +4.23 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,238.26, +4.04 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,104.49, +1.56 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,035.04, +21.59 (0.31%)


Advancing issues led decliners, 3887-2872. There were 312 new highs, to just 34 new lows. Volume was spare.

NYSE Volume 4,742,490,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,153,935,500


Oil finished ahead by $1.49, at $79.66. Gold gained $10.00, to $1,118.50, while silver also was up, ahead by 37 cents, to $16.51.

The major indices finished up for the day and the month, but down for the week. In 2010, stocks have finished weeks on the upside just 3 times and lower 5 times. The major indices are down for the year, but only by 1 or 2%.

The government's revised reading on 4th quarter GDP was no surprise, at 5.9%. Chicago PMI was up a point, to 62.6, in February, and the University of Michigan's Final Consumer Sentiment gauge for February came in at 73.6.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Suckers Galore in Classic Pump and Dump

One has to wonder just how much bad news it will take to send stocks down for the count. Just this week, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence trundled down ten full points to 46, a level not seen since 1983. New home sales for January fell to 309,000, a figure more reminiscent of 1962 than 2010, and, just this morning, new filings for unemployment insurance claims reached 496,000, the third consecutive weekly rise in that number, signaling that instead of declining, unemployment may actually be on the rise again.

Adding to the difficult situation is word that Goldman Sachs - tops on everyone's most-hated company list - will soon be under investigation by the Federal Reserve (what a laugh!) for trading in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) related to the nation of Greece. The Fed would like to know if Goldman traders have been betting on a default of Greece's debt, and, anybody who knows the language of Wall Street would have to conclude that the Goldman traders are all over it.
Obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is counterproductive. - Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

Not that profiting from another country's missteps or outright demise is in any way illegal or unethical - though some may argue that the practice would be immoral - Goldman Sachs may be just the next victim lined up for the dog-and-pony show currently underway in congress. Once the congressional clowns are done with smearing Toyota, they might want to take aim at one of their country's own. Goldman Sachs makes a perfect whipping boy for the incompetent congress. Since they can't pass meaningful legislation, they have resorted to mealy-mouthed denunciations of the business community. The act takes some of the spotlight off their inept attempts at legislating and/or governing.

However, Wall Street being the biggest and most-corrupt casino on the planet, more bad news may only produce sideways trading. Perhaps half of California slipping into the Pacific might garner some support from the bulls, though such an event would likely be viewed with insidious sarcasm on Wall Street, something along the lines of, "well, there one more problem we'll not have to concern ourselves with any more."

On the day that the Dow was down 187 points by midday - a normal reaction - the index ends the session down just over 50 points - an abnormal trade. The question of whether US stocks are manipulated has already been answered over and over again, so since there's little point in beating a horse that's already dead, we can safely assume that the US economy is about to implode once again, and the insiders in DC and on Wall Street already know it. They're just waiting for the optimal moment - when they have as many suckers as possible fully invested in stocks - to sell everything and run for the hills, sending the markets into another spasmodic paroxysm of panic-induced crashing.

While my interpretation of market movements and political foreplay may sound to some like the last days of Cicero, it's about the best I a able to muster considering the abysmal trappings to which we are currently bound. The banking and credit system is broken and more prone to penalize borrowers than help them, real estate is a bad bet for anything other than arable land and the political process has largely ground to a complete halt. Nothing short of a major war is going to solve the debt problems of the developed world, especially Europe, Japan and the United States, a prospect which I do not wish to see, nor do I espouse. Wars only solve nations' problems - and not very well - at the expense of the lives of the general public.

However, as much as I'd like to wax positive on the current condition, I see only gloom and doom ahead for those who are not adequately prepared. Personally, I've divested all of my holdings in anything speculative and am completely in cash and productive investments: tools and seeds, for today; machines and vegetables, tomorrow.

Dow 10,321.03, -53.13 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,234.22, -1.68 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,102.93, -2.31 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 7,013.45, -17.22 (0.24%)


Not unexpectedly, declining issues beat advancers, though not by nearly the 3-1 margin seen earlier in the day, 3458-2969. New highs stood at 225. There were 45 new lows. Volume was at its best level of the week, owing, in part, to the incredibly heavy lifting done by those who eviscerated nearly 140 points from the downside.

NYSE Volume 5,247,205,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,268,341,000


Commodities were mixed again, though today was oil's day for decline. Crude was off $1.70, to $78.30. Gold gained $11.20, to $1,108.40, on rumors that the government of China was planning to buy up the remaining reserves of the IMF. Silver dipped 2 cents, to $15.94.

Tomorrow, being the final day of trading for the week and the month, ought to offer even more ammo for interested parties. The government issues the second estimate of 4th quarter '09 GDP, existing home sales for January are offered and the Chicago PMI and U of Michigan final February consumer sentiment gauge are all on tap.

10,400 is the magic number on the Dow. Closing above that would be the third straight weekly positive finish. For the year, the Dow's record for weekly closes stands at 2 up and 4 down.