Thursday, January 20, 2011

Another Dip for Equity Speculators

As we've heard from countless pundits and analysts, stocks are cheap and headed higher in 2011.

The market, however, and continued unemployment and rising homelessness, tell us that American consumers are all but tapped out and seething over higher fuel and now, food prices. Ben Bernanke's great experiment with QE2, now well into its third month, continues to shovel money at the Primary Dealers, who, in turn, speculate and control the stock markets.

When they wish to sell, they do. When they desire gains, they simply hit the "BUY" button and spend the money the Fed has lavished upon them, which is why today's decline was simply wiped away and turned into a smallish dip. The speculators have all of their bets covered and will crush anybody, short or long, standing in the line of fire.

Stocks were getting creamed earlier in the day before the pretenders of recovery decided to give the market a little boost with some controlled buying. The Dow was down as much as 80 points before recovering into the close with only a small loss, though little could be done to stem the tide against Apple and other tech stocks on the NASDAQ, which suffered through another drubbing, the second in as many days. The NASDAQ, probably the most inflated of the major indices, has lost 62 points over the course of the last two sessions, but that's only the very beginning of what appears to be a massive exodus from high-flying tech names, since the index is up more than 600 points since September, 2010.

Dow 11,822.80, -2.49 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,704.29, -21.07 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,280.26, -1.66 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,076.72, -28.20 (0.35%)


Despite the marginal losses overall, especially on the Dow and S&P, the A/D line told a more sinister story. Declining issues beat back advancers by better than a 2:1 margin. Losers beat winners, 4359-2107. On The NASDAQ, there were 36 new highs to 22 new lows, the convergence now notable and significant of a major turning point. On the NYSE, new highs held sway over new lows, 44-24, also close to doing a complete reversal. Volume picked up again today, marking the best of the week, which is bad news for holders of stocks, generally.

NASDAQ Volume 2,277,221,500.00
NYSE Volume 5,579,977,500


What moved markets and commodities on the day was a set of data points out of China, where inflation is running at a 4.6% rate (probably higher) and the government is under increasing pressure to keep a lid on rising food prices. Unlike in the USA, where higher prices for things we put in our bodies is simply a sign of "recovery" and passed along to the consumer, in China people have a tendency to get a little bit crazier when they are facing wholesale starvation. If China doesn't clamp down hard on rising prices, there will be riots and military movements inside the Great Wall.

Commodities reacted strongly to China's inflation data, as they should have. Oil moved lower by $2.00, to $88.86, its lowest level in two weeks. Gold was pounded lower by $23.70, to $1,346.50, a two-month low, but likely only a temporary setback. Silver was punished mercilessly, losing more than 4.5%, down $1.33, to $27.47. Surely, the gold and silver trade is once again in the hands of the major world banking interests, who are resolute - though highly unsuccessful - in keeping prices of the precious metals down. But they will on occasion carry the day, or week, though for the multitude of investors who swear by gold and silver, these continued declines appear as buying opportunities.

Friday marks option expiration for a multitude of stocks and that derivative market will influce trading on the final session of the week. Monday now appears as the best possible continuation of the down-trend.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

NASDAQ Sells the News

On Monday, we heard that Apple CEO Steve Jobs was going to take a six-month medical leave of absence. On Tuesday, after the closing bell, Apple announced another smashing quarter with great earnings and revenue. On Wednesday, Apple stock got hit with the classic "sell the news" earnings aftermath sell-off.

The decline actually began with the Jobs press release on Tuesday morning, but after earning were released and the stock was initially rebounding, it opened lower on Wednesday and dragged the rest of the NASDAQ down 40 points. Though Apple has only lost 10 points over the past two days, the damage is being felt in other big tech names such as Cisco (CSCO), Dell (DELL), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG). Of course, it's far too early to tell, but, considering the way stocks have appreciated over the past 4 1/2 months, this could be the beginning of a significant correction, one probably overdue and timed perfectly for post-earnings profit-taking. As usual, the smart money may be getting out while the getting is good.

With tech sliding, the rest of the market didn't fare well, though major industrials on the Dow maintained a sense of stability. Another point of focus should be stock options, which expire on Friday. After that, markets could be in for a free-for-all.

Dow 11,825.29, -12.64 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,725.36, -40.49 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,281.92, -13.10 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,104.92, -85.99 (1.05%)


Losers beat gainers by an unhealthy margin, 5161-1411, indicating that the decline, though well-masked on Apple's move, was certainly not contained to tech stocks alone. On the NASDAQ, there were 147 new highs, but just 12 new lows. The NYSE reported 186 new highs and a mere 22 new lows, though the high-low indicator is somewhat of a lagging one, especially after a huge rally such as that seen since September. It will take a while for new highs to fall off in the case of a real correction and an even longer time period for fresh new lows to be plumbed. Volume was at its best level of the week, another disturbing data point.

NASDAQ Volume 2,106,258,500.00
NYSE Volume 5,298,377,000


Crude oil was relatively flat, dipping 52 cents on the front-end futures contract, to $90.86. Gold gained late in the day, up $2.70, to $1370.40 at last look. Silver continued to slide, however, down 12 cents, to $28.76.

Thursday will be a big day for earnings, with nearly 100 companies reporting, including big names such as Capital One (COF), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Morgan Stanley (MS), Coach (COH), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

Stay tuned. This may become interesting again.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Fed Leaves Big Tip

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve purchased $1.74 billion in Treasury inflation-protected securities, otherwise known as TIPS, in an outright purchase as part of the $600+ billion QE2 program. The extra gobs of money created a nifty rise in securities - doesn't it always? - as the major stock indices rose to new highs. It is looking like January will see a positive "January Effect," a term that will be bandied about over the next two weeks if the markets are able to hold onto the gains made thus far or improve upon them.

The January Effect, as it is known to traders, is the theoretical assumption that as the markets go in January, so will they go the remainder of the year. This gauge is supposedly right something along the lines of 85% of the time if January is positive. Over the past two years - both of which saw falling equity prices - the "effect" was not seen, as both 2009 and 2010 turned in impressive upside performances.

While it might not correlate to downside Januaries, two consecutive years of non-conformation raises the issue of whether Fed meddling has rendered all "old" measures of anticipated returns nil. With this January off like gangbusters, what is the chance of ending the year lower? Well, we've got 11 more months to find out, but, if the Fed continues its inflationary policies, stocks will most likely end the year higher, if only to keep pace with the "moderate" inflation, which could turn into "unwieldy" in the second half of the year or sooner.

Wall Street is certainly having its way on the easy money train of late, and while it's probably not too late to jump on the bandwagon for some quick-turn profits, there still is considerable risk, even though nobody will admit to it.

Upward we go, as earnings this week will flow like mother's milk.

Dow 11,837.93, +50.55 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 2,765.85, +10.55 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,295.02, +1.78 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 8,190.91, +16.79 (0.21%)


Considering today's gains, the A/D line did not come in heavily on the side of advancers, which nonetheless beat decliners, 3464-3073. On the NASDAQ, new highs overwhelmed new lows, 269-12. On the NYSE, the beat was not quite as robust, with new highs checking in at 304, against 47 new lows. Volume was fairly strong, but not solid enough from which to draw any conclusions about future direction.

NASDAQ Volume 2,032,031,375
NYSE Volume 5,828,719,500


The front-end (February) crude oil contract on the NYMEX was nearly flat, losing 16 cents, to $91.38. Oil remains at elevated levels. Gold rebounded from last week's drubbing, picking up $7.70, to $1,368.20, with silver adding 58 cents, to $28.91.

There doesn't seem to be any downside to buying equities these days. Even in the case of Apple (APPL), where founder and CEO Steve Jobs announced a six-month medical leave of absence, the stock fell more than 7 points during the session, but recovered back most of that in after-hours trading as the company posted numbers in excess of Street estimates. IBM also reported and beat, while Citigroup announced a 50% miss (.04 cents on expectations of .08) prior to the opening bell.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Stocks Extend Gains for 7th Straight Week

In its latest POMO, the Fed purchased another $7.3 billion in bonds from the Primary Dealers on Friday, which, of course, made buying yesterday's dip the right move for equity traders.

Stocks rallied sharply off a quiet beginning, with all major indices getting a diagonal lift throughout the day. The market has now overextended an already extended position, as new highs were hit in all the majors. Those calling for a pull-back thus far have been sorely disappointed and probably are feeling a bit embarrassed at doubting the power of the Fed and fiat money created out of thin air.

Leading the way were bank and computer chip firms after JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Intel (INTC) both reported earnings better-than street estimates.

Investors took December retail sales (up 0.5%), capacity utilization (76%) and industrial production (+0.8%) as positive signs that the recovery was continuing apace. A higher-than-normal CPI, which came in at 0.5%, did little to contain the enthusiasm.

Dow 11,787.38, +55.48 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 2,755.30, +20.01 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,293.24, +9.48 (0.74%)
NYSE Composite 8,174.12, +54.69 (0.67%)


Advancing issues far outpaced decliners, 3972-2547. There were 233 new highs and 112 new lows on the NASDAQ; On the NYSE, there were 234 new highs and 153 new lows, the lows dominated by Municipal Bond funds, which have been hard hit in the aftermath of Meredith Whitney's call that there will be hundreds of municipal defaults this year. Nobody seems to be doubting her as states and cities struggle with bloated budgets and slim tax receipts.

Volume was at its best level of the week, a fitting conclusion to a week characterized by high drama and low reactions.

NASDAQ Volume 2,030,708,125.00
NYSE Volume 5,228,476,000


Oil tacked on a 14 cent gain, to $91.54, but the precious metals were savaged again. Gold traded down $26.50, to $1,360.50, its lowest level in some months, while silver was whipsawed lower by 94 cents, coming in at $28.32. The level of complacency in all trading areas - outside of the muni bond complex - is stunning. There simply is no risk aversion, a recipe for disaster, which the Fed has so far been able to contain.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

No POMO, No Follow-through, BTFD

For the uninitiated, BTFD is an acronym for Buy The F---ing Dip, as relates to stocks in the Bernanke free-money era in which we are currently ensconced. Today's dip, though not great, may be yet another buying opportunity for the momentum-chasers still convinced that buying stocks presents the best profit potential with limits to the downside.

One can hardly argue with the reasoning of the Mo-mo crowd over the past 4 1/2 months, as stocks have been on a tear since Labor day, 2010, and are up whopping amounts from their March 9, 2009 lows. Since it's still smartest to buy low and sell high, any decline, no matter how tiny, represents another chance to cash in on short-term trades, especially those of long duration, which today means a day or longer.

What may have riled markets today were a raft of displeasing data, beginning with a ramp up in initial unemployment claims, reported at 445,000 for the week, as opposed to the "expected" 415,000 and prior week of 410,000. Those figures are seasonally adjusted, with non-seasonally adjusted coming in some 230,000 higher, thus laying sufficient ground that the BLS figures are mostly for show and have not been trustworthy since the early days of the Bush administration.

While the mainstream media continues to drone on about the nascent recovery of the US economy, more than just casual observers are noting that said recovery has never much existed on Main Street and the various stimuli applied to the economy have benefited most Wall Street bankers and politicians who favor the status quo over real action or reform.

On top of the sorry-looking unemployment claims numbers came a PPI that was not very surprising, up 1.1% in December, with the core, which excludes food and energy, up a mere 0.2%, again unsurprising since just about anyone who drives or eats - and that would include just about everybody - has seen rocketing prices at the pump and the checkout counters in supermarkets. Food and fuel prices are accelerating far faster than the economy is growing, which is the express intent of Ben Bernanke's QE efforts, so we are now seeing the first signs of runaway inflation, with surely more to follow.

Stocks took a nose dive at the open, recovered, fell again and then raced higher into the close on short-covering by deft day-traders, which is just about everyone these days. Buy and hold and the former principles of investing have long ago been thrown unceremoniously out the window along with transparency and fair markets. The pre-planned hike by the Fed and Wall Street is working according to plan, and that plan is to squeeze every last dollar out of the middle class until they are on the verge of bankruptcy, starvation or revolt, or a combination of all three.

It is widely assumed that once the middle class is put under such dire conditions, the Fed will ease off the monetary gas pedal and all will return to the normalcy of peace, prosperity, milk, honey, wine and roses. This is assuming much, including that the bankers and other .01% of the population that benefits from the deprivation of the middle class will be sated and allow prices to lower and people to eat, breathe and drive freely without undue economic or political restraint. That is a rather large and unwieldy assumption and the Fed is asking for major trouble should they not know when to apply the brakes, which, if we are to take the nearly 100 years of Fed history as a guide, will not occur as planned, sending the economy careening into a wall of higher prices, stagnant wages, permanent high unemployment and lowered standards of living. Of course, this is all well and good, if you are a globalist, which our leaders in congress, the White House, on wall Street and at the Fed most certainly are.

Dow 11,731.90, -23.54 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,735.29, -2.04 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,283.76, -2.20 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 8,119.43, -3.55 (0.04%)


As one would expect, declining issues led the charge over advancers, 3530-2909. There were 208 new highs and 10 new lows on the NASDAQ; on the NYSE, 246 new highs to 108 new lows was something out of the ordinary, with the new lows ramping up to levels not seen this year. Volume remained stagnant at low levels as usual.

NASDAQ Volume 1,960,601,750
NYSE Volume 4,822,930,000


Commodities trended lower, except in the agriculture space, where all grains were higher. Crude oil for February delivery shed 46 cents on the NYMEX, to $91.40, still at elevated levels despite storms slowing the rate of travel for the past three weeks. Gold took a major hit, down $14.00 late in the day, to $1374.00. Silver also was bombarded by selling, losing 91 cents, to $28.74. The metals, not conforming to a massive drop in the dollar index - off 0.85, to 79.20, are telling us nothing about current conditions except that the markets simply aren't making much sense right now. Stocks normally would have been up on such a large (>1.0%) move, though the effects of the unemployment condition and inflation gauge may have ameliorated such effect.

Global populations are in for a double-kick of inflation, with energy and food prices leading the way. If this is somehow good for global growth - a starving, immobile mass of humanity - it is beyond the scope of most economic experts. It is only in this new age of never-ending money supply inflation that the world now turns, for better or for worse, 'til death, taxes or $4/gallon gasoline do we part.