Just because the markets in the US are closed, doesn't mean there's no economic news from the rest of the world, and there's plenty.
Due to violence in Lybia, where President Moammar Gadhafi - via a videotaped message by his son - vows to fight the insurrection against his 42 years of tyranny, "until the last man standing," oil prices have gone ballistic, with WTI (crude oil on the NYMEX) has shot through $90/barrel and is fast approaching $100.
Americans may awaken from their three-day weekend with sticker shock when they go to fill up their cars, vans and SUVs with petrol.
Elsewhere, precious metals have also taken notice that the global situation has become extremely unstable. Gold is pricing right now at $1,406.70, up a whopping $18.10 just today. But the real story is silver, which spiked on Friday, but is putting that move to shame taday with a nearly 5% move higher, to $33.88, up $1.58! That's quite a rocket ship, there and it's more than just short covering. US investors will likely send both gold and silver higher as congress takes a week off, just prior to the most important vote of the new congress: whether or not to raise the debt ceiling.
Analysts on top of the situation feel the government needs to act by March 4th in order to avert a federal government shutdown, which leaves the congress just five days - after they return from their vacation - to work out their differences, and there are many.
One option is to raise the ceiling gradually, enough to fund the government for another month, and revisit the issue again, and, if necessary, again and again. This could be the kind of circus we get from our "leaders" - an endless game of chicken and "gotcha" while the Republic burns.
Nero would be proud.
Make note to grab as much cash out of your bank account as possible within the next two weeks. There could be fireworks dead ahead, and I'm not talking about the 4th of July variety. If the government does shut down, there could be a bank holiday right on its heels, and even without a work stoppage in Washington, the number of bank failures in the US is already up to 22 and we're not even through February yet. Four more went down on Friday; two in California and two more in Georgia, the bank failure capitol.
There were 157 bank failures nationwide in 2010, 140 in 2009 and 25 in 2008. Smaller banks have suffered the most, but the biggest - the ones bailed out by the US taxpayer - are still not immune.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Silver, 10-Year Note Are New Safety Plays
Let's dispense with the general recap right away:
The first thing that jumps out is how absurdly out of step the major indices are, with the Dow plowing ahead by nearly 6/10 of 1% and the other indices flat. This is as it has been for many months. There are extreme inequities in equities, to coin a phrase and it is a certain sign of manipulation and flights of both fancy and safety.
Dow 12,391.25, +73.11 (0.59%)
NASDAQ 2,833.95, +2.37 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,343.01, +2.58 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,507.90, +10.49 (0.12%)
Advancers finished ahead of decliners, 3600-2902. On the NASDAQ there were 248 new highs, 14 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led new lows, 350-8. Volume was well short of being exciting.
NASDAQ Volume 2,123,685,000
NYSE Volume 4,421,542,500
As the Middle East becomes ever more the hotbed of revolution, with uprisings in nearly every country across North Africa and the Persian Gulf, investors are seeking safety and finding a comfortable place to park their money in commodities in general, but silver in particular.
Silver rocketed again today in price as buyers piled in prior to the three-day weekend, pushing the price up to $32.30, a gain of 73 cents, and even higher after the close in New York. By the time markets open in the US on Tuesday, silver could be selling for $35/ounce, so powerful is the short-covering move and subsequent break-out. Gold is closing in on all-time highs again, gaining $3.50 today, to finish at $1,388.60 in NY. Oddly enough, oil futures were down on the day, losing 16 cents, to $86.20, seemingly wanting to settle somewhere between $80 and $85 per barrel, a price with which most - both suppliers and buyers - can live.
The other area receiving an inordinate amount of attention, as Chairman Bernanke nukes the dollar, is the 10-year note, which continued to rally today, pushing yields down to 3.58% at the close. The price of the 10-year is still 100 basis points higher than it was during the summer, thanks to the inflationary effect of the Fed's ZIRP and QE2. Still, money has to go somewhere and the smart money is peeling out of overpriced stocks and into the relative safety of bonds.
For our money, silver still looks like the very best raw investment, bar none. One should be looking for deals on autos and machinery these days, before inflation gets out of control.
A three-day weekend means not having to listen to the talking heads on CNBC for an entire 72 hours. Bliss!
The first thing that jumps out is how absurdly out of step the major indices are, with the Dow plowing ahead by nearly 6/10 of 1% and the other indices flat. This is as it has been for many months. There are extreme inequities in equities, to coin a phrase and it is a certain sign of manipulation and flights of both fancy and safety.
Dow 12,391.25, +73.11 (0.59%)
NASDAQ 2,833.95, +2.37 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,343.01, +2.58 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,507.90, +10.49 (0.12%)
Advancers finished ahead of decliners, 3600-2902. On the NASDAQ there were 248 new highs, 14 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led new lows, 350-8. Volume was well short of being exciting.
NASDAQ Volume 2,123,685,000
NYSE Volume 4,421,542,500
As the Middle East becomes ever more the hotbed of revolution, with uprisings in nearly every country across North Africa and the Persian Gulf, investors are seeking safety and finding a comfortable place to park their money in commodities in general, but silver in particular.
Silver rocketed again today in price as buyers piled in prior to the three-day weekend, pushing the price up to $32.30, a gain of 73 cents, and even higher after the close in New York. By the time markets open in the US on Tuesday, silver could be selling for $35/ounce, so powerful is the short-covering move and subsequent break-out. Gold is closing in on all-time highs again, gaining $3.50 today, to finish at $1,388.60 in NY. Oddly enough, oil futures were down on the day, losing 16 cents, to $86.20, seemingly wanting to settle somewhere between $80 and $85 per barrel, a price with which most - both suppliers and buyers - can live.
The other area receiving an inordinate amount of attention, as Chairman Bernanke nukes the dollar, is the 10-year note, which continued to rally today, pushing yields down to 3.58% at the close. The price of the 10-year is still 100 basis points higher than it was during the summer, thanks to the inflationary effect of the Fed's ZIRP and QE2. Still, money has to go somewhere and the smart money is peeling out of overpriced stocks and into the relative safety of bonds.
For our money, silver still looks like the very best raw investment, bar none. One should be looking for deals on autos and machinery these days, before inflation gets out of control.
A three-day weekend means not having to listen to the talking heads on CNBC for an entire 72 hours. Bliss!
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Stocks Up; Silver at 30-Year High
All attempts to slander, deride or talk down the precious metals as the ultimate store of value have failed. Trillions of Benji Bucks, delivered to market participants by the Federal Reserve and sparking an equity and commodity boom the likes of which the world has never seen has finally defeated the forces holding down the value of gold and silver.
In what can only be characterized as a massive short squeeze, silver spiked to fresh 30-year highs, while gold surge to a one-month high. There is little to hold them back now save the massive short silver positions held by JP Morgan Chase, and they are being buried under frenzied buying.
Uprisings in Middle Eastern countries from Bahrain to Syria to Lybia to Algeria to Saudi Arabia, in the aftermath of the Egyptian triumph over tyranny, have been set off by upward global food price price pressure, the lack of stable employment and corruption in government. If those themes sound familiar to people in the more "developed" world such as the USA and Europe, it is because we are beset on all sides by corruption and inflation, a deadly combination for anyone who seeks to hold positions of political power.
Thus, the Federal Reserve has sparked rebellions overseas and maybe tipped the flobal community past the point of no return. Only the dole in England, food stamps in America and deeply-ingrained socialism in most of the EU has kept the people of these countries from "going Egyptian" on their political masters.
The Westernized nations certainly have a great deal to gripe about, though the impact of the Fed's policies of zero interest rate and quantitative easing are being felt first in the rest of the world. They will no doubt be visiting the shores of Europe and the United States at some as yet determined date. Runaway inflation, high unemployment, dissatisfaction with government policies and widespread fraud should result in tumult of the highest order just in time for the presidential elections in 2012, should the nation still be intact by then.
But, I digress. The most important signpost of the day was the spike in silver, without a doubt. It was, in warrior terminology, a shot across the bows of the ships of states printing fiat money, backed, laughably, by "good faith and cradit" of the issuer. In the case of the United States, unbeknownst to the rulers-at-large, all faith has been shattered and our national credit card has been tapped out. We loan mostly to ourselves, from ourselves, by ourselves, in a Ponzi scheme so deliciously evil that it would make Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout.
Dow 12,318.14, +29.97 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,831.58, +6.02 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,340.43, +4.11 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,497.41, +43.65 (0.52%)
Advancing issues beat decliners, 4118-2402. NASDAQ recorded 212 new highs and 22 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs topped new lows, 361-9, a number so ridiculously out of balance that only Ben Bernanke could love it. There is no downside risk to owning stocks and until there is, one should load up with tight stops on the underside. Volume was back into the abyss of the past two years.
NASDAQ Volume 1,952,032,375
NYSE Volume 4,178,143,000
Oil was up another $1.37, to $86.36 on conflicting reports that Iran was about to send warships through the Suez Canal. Israel is worried and called the act "provocative," while countries all around it are undergoing spasms of freedom and expressions of liberty. The smart money has already left Zion. A couple of Palestinaians were shot and killed by Israeli soldiers on the border of the Gaza strip.
Gold gained $10.00, to $1,385.10, and silver was up more than 2% at the close in New York, higher by 94 cents, to $31.57. Silver, said to be rarer than gold by some accounts, has jumped $5 dollars US in just over a month. Today's final push to new highs marks the beginning of a second phase in the bull rally that has slowly limped behind gold, but has recently outstripped nearly every other asset class, gaining 87% in 2010 alone.
Estimates for how high silver can go and in what time frame range from the reasoned to the impossible, though in today's upside-down economic world, the impossible - such as the S&P 500 doubling in just the past two years - is now possible. A reasonable guess is that silver will reach $50 by the end of the year, which would be "only" a 67% gain in an asset that has no counterparty risk if one holds physical metal and is deeply undervalued by almost every metric.
Now that buying stocks is a risk-less play, expect some surprises in the next downturn, such as it coming out of nowhere, for no particular reason and to be deep and quick. The sheep will surely get sheared once again as gold bugs and silver sleuths sit back and gloat.
Yes, and real estate in selected markets is cheap, but will be cheaper later this year, even cheaper in 2012 and practically fire-sale prices in 2013. Save your silver. In three years time, you'll be able to buy a reasonable three-bedroom home in a decent community for about 200 ounces of silver. I would not kid you about that. Of course, you may not be able to afford the property taxes, especially if the house is in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts or California.
And, BTW, the banks are dead. They just won't admit it.
In what can only be characterized as a massive short squeeze, silver spiked to fresh 30-year highs, while gold surge to a one-month high. There is little to hold them back now save the massive short silver positions held by JP Morgan Chase, and they are being buried under frenzied buying.
Uprisings in Middle Eastern countries from Bahrain to Syria to Lybia to Algeria to Saudi Arabia, in the aftermath of the Egyptian triumph over tyranny, have been set off by upward global food price price pressure, the lack of stable employment and corruption in government. If those themes sound familiar to people in the more "developed" world such as the USA and Europe, it is because we are beset on all sides by corruption and inflation, a deadly combination for anyone who seeks to hold positions of political power.
Thus, the Federal Reserve has sparked rebellions overseas and maybe tipped the flobal community past the point of no return. Only the dole in England, food stamps in America and deeply-ingrained socialism in most of the EU has kept the people of these countries from "going Egyptian" on their political masters.
The Westernized nations certainly have a great deal to gripe about, though the impact of the Fed's policies of zero interest rate and quantitative easing are being felt first in the rest of the world. They will no doubt be visiting the shores of Europe and the United States at some as yet determined date. Runaway inflation, high unemployment, dissatisfaction with government policies and widespread fraud should result in tumult of the highest order just in time for the presidential elections in 2012, should the nation still be intact by then.
But, I digress. The most important signpost of the day was the spike in silver, without a doubt. It was, in warrior terminology, a shot across the bows of the ships of states printing fiat money, backed, laughably, by "good faith and cradit" of the issuer. In the case of the United States, unbeknownst to the rulers-at-large, all faith has been shattered and our national credit card has been tapped out. We loan mostly to ourselves, from ourselves, by ourselves, in a Ponzi scheme so deliciously evil that it would make Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout.
Dow 12,318.14, +29.97 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,831.58, +6.02 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,340.43, +4.11 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,497.41, +43.65 (0.52%)
Advancing issues beat decliners, 4118-2402. NASDAQ recorded 212 new highs and 22 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs topped new lows, 361-9, a number so ridiculously out of balance that only Ben Bernanke could love it. There is no downside risk to owning stocks and until there is, one should load up with tight stops on the underside. Volume was back into the abyss of the past two years.
NASDAQ Volume 1,952,032,375
NYSE Volume 4,178,143,000
Oil was up another $1.37, to $86.36 on conflicting reports that Iran was about to send warships through the Suez Canal. Israel is worried and called the act "provocative," while countries all around it are undergoing spasms of freedom and expressions of liberty. The smart money has already left Zion. A couple of Palestinaians were shot and killed by Israeli soldiers on the border of the Gaza strip.
Gold gained $10.00, to $1,385.10, and silver was up more than 2% at the close in New York, higher by 94 cents, to $31.57. Silver, said to be rarer than gold by some accounts, has jumped $5 dollars US in just over a month. Today's final push to new highs marks the beginning of a second phase in the bull rally that has slowly limped behind gold, but has recently outstripped nearly every other asset class, gaining 87% in 2010 alone.
Estimates for how high silver can go and in what time frame range from the reasoned to the impossible, though in today's upside-down economic world, the impossible - such as the S&P 500 doubling in just the past two years - is now possible. A reasonable guess is that silver will reach $50 by the end of the year, which would be "only" a 67% gain in an asset that has no counterparty risk if one holds physical metal and is deeply undervalued by almost every metric.
Now that buying stocks is a risk-less play, expect some surprises in the next downturn, such as it coming out of nowhere, for no particular reason and to be deep and quick. The sheep will surely get sheared once again as gold bugs and silver sleuths sit back and gloat.
Yes, and real estate in selected markets is cheap, but will be cheaper later this year, even cheaper in 2012 and practically fire-sale prices in 2013. Save your silver. In three years time, you'll be able to buy a reasonable three-bedroom home in a decent community for about 200 ounces of silver. I would not kid you about that. Of course, you may not be able to afford the property taxes, especially if the house is in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts or California.
And, BTW, the banks are dead. They just won't admit it.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Tuesday Was an Aberration; Move Along, Now
Didn't I tell you all yesterday that stocks would be back up today. Tuesday was a one-off. Wall Street has to do it every now and then to convince the sheep, er, peep, er, sheeple, like you, that it's all on the up and up.
It's not. It's fed by the Fed. Buy silver. I have little more to say, but, in a nutshell, we're back to feudalism, and the banksters and politicians are the lords and you, me and anyone with either a job or a subsidized existence (it's becoming more lucrative to filch, in fact) are the serfs.
Fuck 'em. And prepare for Amrageddon.
Dow 12,288.17, +61.53 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 2,825.56, +21.21 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,336.32, +8.31 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,453.76, +70.09 (0.84%)
Advancing issues stomped all over decliners, 4678-1882. NASDAQ new highs: 202; new lows: 32. NYSE new highs: 335; new lows: 13. Volume was solid, for a change. There must be a ramp-up coming. Everybody's all in. Oh, that's right. Options expiration Friday. How could I have missed that? It's where all the money is being made.
NASDAQ Volume 2,289,703,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,453,836,500
Crude oil got a bit of a boost by Iranian warships entering the Suez Canal en route to Syria, up 67 cents to nestle in at $84.99. Gold gained $1.00, to $1,375.10 and silver was down 7 cents, to $30.63. Nothing to see there. Move along.
Tomorrow, the BLS offers the latest in a series of comedy sketches otherwise known as unemployment claims prior to the opening bell, which, in case you haven't noticed, is not a bell at all, but the same sound used in casinos world-wide when a one-armed bandit pays off, even more proof that Wall Street really is one giant casino.
It's not. It's fed by the Fed. Buy silver. I have little more to say, but, in a nutshell, we're back to feudalism, and the banksters and politicians are the lords and you, me and anyone with either a job or a subsidized existence (it's becoming more lucrative to filch, in fact) are the serfs.
Fuck 'em. And prepare for Amrageddon.
Dow 12,288.17, +61.53 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 2,825.56, +21.21 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,336.32, +8.31 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,453.76, +70.09 (0.84%)
Advancing issues stomped all over decliners, 4678-1882. NASDAQ new highs: 202; new lows: 32. NYSE new highs: 335; new lows: 13. Volume was solid, for a change. There must be a ramp-up coming. Everybody's all in. Oh, that's right. Options expiration Friday. How could I have missed that? It's where all the money is being made.
NASDAQ Volume 2,289,703,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,453,836,500
Crude oil got a bit of a boost by Iranian warships entering the Suez Canal en route to Syria, up 67 cents to nestle in at $84.99. Gold gained $1.00, to $1,375.10 and silver was down 7 cents, to $30.63. Nothing to see there. Move along.
Tomorrow, the BLS offers the latest in a series of comedy sketches otherwise known as unemployment claims prior to the opening bell, which, in case you haven't noticed, is not a bell at all, but the same sound used in casinos world-wide when a one-armed bandit pays off, even more proof that Wall Street really is one giant casino.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
What's This? Stocks Down! Say It Ain't So!
Believe it or not, all of the major US indices actually finished in the red today.
This is, of course, anathema to the mendacious crowd which fixes prices on all equities, all the time, so an examination of the carcass may reveal a hidden message.
Peering inside the dumped stocks, we find that today's Tuesday decline was led by basic materials (hmmm... commodities) and technology. Four sectors finished positive: financial (no surprise there), health care, utilities and transportation. The only sense to be made from this is that the big money is doing its rotation dance and taking profits. Markets should be back to their normal ascent by tomorrow's opening bell.
Wall Street continues to be in serious denial over the health of the economy and the value of stocks, which are largely over-priced and carrying general valuations of 14-17X earnings. This morning's retail sales figures may have tripped up the algos in the stock-buying computers, because they missed by a mile - coming in at 0.3% gain when the call was for between .05 and .07.
Not surprising that many of the self-proclaimed experts had this analyzed all wrong, especially considering that much of the retail number is based on same-store sales and omits stores closed within the past 12 months, of which there are many. The real number is actually much worse, but we're all supposed to believe that the US economy is improving, so the data must be fudged to meet the "reality."
Dow 12,226.64, -41.55 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,804.35, -12.83 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,328.01, -4.31 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,383.67, -21.48 (0.26%)
Decliners led advancing issues by a wide margin, 3996-2479. On the NASDAQ, there were still 144 new highs and just 23 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 213 new highs and just 13 new lows. Volume was slack, and that's saying quite a bit, since yesterday was the slowest trading day of the year. The bulls may be getting a little winded after a nearly six-month run.
NASDAQ Volume 2,034,250,500
NYSE Volume 4,396,449,000
What was even more interesting that the minor downturn in stocks was the continued action in crude oil futures, which fell again, down 49 cents, to $84.32, the lowest price in twwo and a half months. Gold moved in the opposite direction, up $9.00, to $1,374.10, along with silver, which gained 16 cents, to $30.70, nearing the pinnacle of the recent range.
Look for another leg up in the precious metals, especially on any economic disruptions or blasphemy to the recovery theme, either from the Middle East or economic data that isn't sufficiently massaged. This bull run has gotten pretty long in the tooth and a major correction could lie dead ahead. In fact, it's long overdue.
This is, of course, anathema to the mendacious crowd which fixes prices on all equities, all the time, so an examination of the carcass may reveal a hidden message.
Peering inside the dumped stocks, we find that today's Tuesday decline was led by basic materials (hmmm... commodities) and technology. Four sectors finished positive: financial (no surprise there), health care, utilities and transportation. The only sense to be made from this is that the big money is doing its rotation dance and taking profits. Markets should be back to their normal ascent by tomorrow's opening bell.
Wall Street continues to be in serious denial over the health of the economy and the value of stocks, which are largely over-priced and carrying general valuations of 14-17X earnings. This morning's retail sales figures may have tripped up the algos in the stock-buying computers, because they missed by a mile - coming in at 0.3% gain when the call was for between .05 and .07.
Not surprising that many of the self-proclaimed experts had this analyzed all wrong, especially considering that much of the retail number is based on same-store sales and omits stores closed within the past 12 months, of which there are many. The real number is actually much worse, but we're all supposed to believe that the US economy is improving, so the data must be fudged to meet the "reality."
Dow 12,226.64, -41.55 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,804.35, -12.83 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,328.01, -4.31 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,383.67, -21.48 (0.26%)
Decliners led advancing issues by a wide margin, 3996-2479. On the NASDAQ, there were still 144 new highs and just 23 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 213 new highs and just 13 new lows. Volume was slack, and that's saying quite a bit, since yesterday was the slowest trading day of the year. The bulls may be getting a little winded after a nearly six-month run.
NASDAQ Volume 2,034,250,500
NYSE Volume 4,396,449,000
What was even more interesting that the minor downturn in stocks was the continued action in crude oil futures, which fell again, down 49 cents, to $84.32, the lowest price in twwo and a half months. Gold moved in the opposite direction, up $9.00, to $1,374.10, along with silver, which gained 16 cents, to $30.70, nearing the pinnacle of the recent range.
Look for another leg up in the precious metals, especially on any economic disruptions or blasphemy to the recovery theme, either from the Middle East or economic data that isn't sufficiently massaged. This bull run has gotten pretty long in the tooth and a major correction could lie dead ahead. In fact, it's long overdue.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
