After John Boehner chastised President Obama again from the floor of the House of Representatives in the morning, the markets got what they were so eagerly anticipating and pricing in for the last two weeks: Ben Bernanke's unveiling of QE4, the promise by the Federal Reserve to purchase an additional $45 billion in long-dated treasuries each month, commencing with the wind-down of a similar program known as "Operation Twist."
This new monetizing of government debt is in addition to the fed's commitment to continued purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month for the foreseeable future, which translates roughly into "forever, or until the fiat monetary system collapses."
What the market didn't expect was the Fed's statement tying interest rates to the unemployment rate. In the FOMC statement issued shortly after noon and prior to Bernanke's 2:00 pm ET press conference, the Fed announced, "the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored."
With inflation fairly tame and trending toward dis-inflation on the retail level, the Fed has finally embarked upon a robotic-like exit strategy, though with existential caveats and various loopholes and escape clauses.
After digesting the news, stocks were initially bought up, but, during the press conference, began to slip, finally ending the day with no gains.
While on the one hand the Fed is keeping the monetary floodgates wide open, they are anticipating economic recovery, though even the most ardent bulls don't see the official unemployment rate (U3) falling below 6.5% for at least another year. It currently stands at 7.7%, though that figure is largely due to the decline in the labor participation rate.
With baby boomers retiring at an estimated rate of 10,000 per day - many taking the offer of smaller benefits at age 62 - the labor market is in a state of generational flux unlike any seen in modern times, so there's literally no telling when unemployment might fall below the Fed's threshold level, if at all.
One thing's for certain: if the economy suddenly finds its legs and springs into a real recovery with job creation and rising GDP, Wall Street will be offended because the free money spigots will be turned off or borrowing costs will be significantly increased.
It's a double-edged sword of competitiveness vs. financial repression being played by Wall Street bankers against the population at large. Higher interest rates would tamp down rampant speculation and reverse the galloping higher market trends. In fact, the mere hint from the Fed that interest rates might rise already has seen some effect.
Withe the final Fed meeting of the year out of the way, all eyes will be on the Speaker and the President as they race against time to find a solution to their wide differences to solving the fiscal mess they've created (with ample assistance from Wall Street and the 2008 crash).
Time is running short on the politicians and Wall Street may not be so easily amused over the next few weeks.
Dow 13,245.45, -2.99 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,013.81, -8.49 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,428.48, +0.64 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,380.88, +14.40 (0.17%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,775,625
NYSE Volume 3,678,721,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2467-3083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 204-45
WTI crude oil: 86.77, +0.98
Gold: 1,717.90, +8.30
Silver: 33.78, +0.765
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
HSBC Pays $1.9 Billion Fine for Money Laundering; Stocks Soar
If there ever was any doubt that our financial and political systems are as crooked as they ever have been, today's news that London-based HSBC agreed to pay a $1.9 billion fine in a deal with the US Justice Department to settle money laundering charges AND NOBODY WAS CHARGED WITH A CRIME, should dispel any remaining doubt.
Wall Street's reaction to the news was a giddy rally, celebrating the idea that banks and corporations can commit any crimes they like and suffer no criminal consequences.
And people think their investments are safe. And the government is working really hard to come to an agreement to avoid sending the economy over the fiscal cliff and raising everybody's taxes.
Think about it.
Dow 13,248.44, +78.56(0.60%)
NASDAQ 3,022.30, +35.34(1.18%)
S&P 500 1,427.84, +9.29(0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,366.47, +43.79(0.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,933,253,500
NYSE Volume 3,650,410.250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3847-1695
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-48
WTI crude oil: 85.79, +0.23
Gold: 1,709.60, -4.80
Silver: 33.02, -0.36
Wall Street's reaction to the news was a giddy rally, celebrating the idea that banks and corporations can commit any crimes they like and suffer no criminal consequences.
And people think their investments are safe. And the government is working really hard to come to an agreement to avoid sending the economy over the fiscal cliff and raising everybody's taxes.
Think about it.
Dow 13,248.44, +78.56(0.60%)
NASDAQ 3,022.30, +35.34(1.18%)
S&P 500 1,427.84, +9.29(0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,366.47, +43.79(0.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,933,253,500
NYSE Volume 3,650,410.250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3847-1695
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-48
WTI crude oil: 85.79, +0.23
Gold: 1,709.60, -4.80
Silver: 33.02, -0.36
Monday, December 10, 2012
Over the Cliff We Go, but Where Is the Fear?
America has finally been dumbed down enough so that the ruling elite can run roughshod over the nation unfettered by neither rule of law or unfortunate facts.
About a month ago, (first person singular here, so pay attention) I made a point (don't know whether or not I made the point in any blog posting or not) that my belief was that a deal on the Bush tax cuts' expiration and other "fiscal cliff" issues had already been cut. Today, I still hold to that belief and even more strongly than before.
Take, for instance, the measured pace of both the Washington politicians and the Wal Street traders. The politicians have done nothing, are no closer to a deal than they were a month ago and don't seem to be in a big hurry to resolve these "pressing" issues.
Wall Street, after a hissy fit bout of selling over "their man" Romney losing the election, have recouped most of the decline and keep gradually pushing stocks higher and higher, apparently oblivious to the threat of the entire nation falling (or being pushed) over said fiscal cliff come January 1, 2013.
The simple reason for believing that the politicians won't make a deal before January 1, 2013, are so obvious as to not even be worth mentioning and that is the exploding federal government deficit and ever-expanding national debt, due to surpass its limits within another month or so.
The government needs money. Let me say that again, with emphasis:
THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY!
OK, maybe that was a little harsh on the eyes, but there's no doubting the veracity of that statement. And, since the government needs money, and, since the politicians express this nagging sentiment that they are two parties poles apart on ideology and methodology, when in fact they are one and the same party when it comes to self-survival, the best way to get more money is to raise taxes on everybody and blame each other, which, in the long run, means nobody gets blamed, nobody has to worry about torches, pitchforks and being run out of town on a rail, and everybody gets re-elected, eventually.
For Wall Street, it means more money for corporations, which can and do break every law imaginable in pursuit of profit, and largely get away with it. Or, the traders are just ramping up stocks on the backs of their muppet clients, while quietly cashing out and putting their money into tangible assets like gold, silver, real estate, or stashing it away in the Cayman Islands or some other off-shore tax haven.
Think, for a moment. According to recently released statistics, and demonstrated by this article, in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients (over one million) were added to the economy as jobs (324,000). So, where's the recovery? For everybody who gets a low-wage, no-benefit, glorified part-time job, three people apply for and receive food stamps and become a burden on the working class.
Like so many other concepts and programs in these United States, this is unsustainable, yet the media keeps rminding us that all is well, and that we sould go out and buy the latest iWidget or iGadget for Christmas to keep the economy humming along. Really?
Take a look at the S&P Retail Index (^RLX), which, after a double bottom in late October and early November, has headed south again in the first six days of December.
This, my friends, is the Christmas season, the buying season, the make-or-break season for retailers. If everything is so honkey-dorey, then why is this index rolling over, right at the height of what should be its strongest season.
Maybe the market is just being counter-intuitive, but, more likely, the retailers are being slaughtered. Holiday buying is down, as some luxury retailers have recently expressed, like Tiffany and Nordstrom's, and Kohl's, a mainstream retailer, reported horrifying same-store sales last week. Cannibalization. Zombification. Call it what you will, but, if everybody - not just the rich, but, everybody - is going to pay more in taxes next year, because THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY, how then does the economy look going forward.
Happy Holidays my sweet, firm buns. We're heading over the fiscal cliff by design and the aftermath of crashing billions of dollars below is not going to be very pretty.
I may be completely wrong, but, believe what you like. By all appearances, the deal has already been struck, the politicians are just play-acting, and the deal is that there is no deal. Welcome to the next fork on the road to serfdom.
Am I the only one seeing this for what it is? Where's the fear of the economy rolling over into a recession in the first half of 2013, which the OMB has already expressed would happen were the Bush tax cuts to expire, unemployment benefits be allowed to expire, the reduced take out of Social Security be allowed to expire, and cuts in defense and other programs (the so-called "sequestration") occur all at once?
The congress is set to recess for the holidays on Friday, December 14, four days from now. There simply isn't time enough to craft a substantive deal before then, since nothing at all has been done.
Obama and the Democrats will blame House leader John Boehner and the Republicans, who will blame Obama and the Democrats, and the American people will be left holding the bag, once again, with less in it than before. Tax the rich, tax the poor, tax everybody in between and blame each other. What a plan! Absolutely brilliant!
Market Update at 4:50 pm ET...
Stuck on stupid is about the only way to describe today's market (non)activity. Narrow range (seriously, the Dow was between up 20 and 30 points for almost the entire session) on low volume with the full range of just 55 points was ugly. Totally dead money.
Dow 13,169.88, +14.75 (0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,986.96, +8.92 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,418.55, +0.48 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,322.68, +8.39(0.10%)
NYSE Volume 2,975,303,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,528,722,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3095-2408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 139-61
WTI crude oil: 85.56, -0.37
Gold: 1,714.40, +8.90
Silver: 33.38, +0.246
About a month ago, (first person singular here, so pay attention) I made a point (don't know whether or not I made the point in any blog posting or not) that my belief was that a deal on the Bush tax cuts' expiration and other "fiscal cliff" issues had already been cut. Today, I still hold to that belief and even more strongly than before.
Take, for instance, the measured pace of both the Washington politicians and the Wal Street traders. The politicians have done nothing, are no closer to a deal than they were a month ago and don't seem to be in a big hurry to resolve these "pressing" issues.
Wall Street, after a hissy fit bout of selling over "their man" Romney losing the election, have recouped most of the decline and keep gradually pushing stocks higher and higher, apparently oblivious to the threat of the entire nation falling (or being pushed) over said fiscal cliff come January 1, 2013.
The simple reason for believing that the politicians won't make a deal before January 1, 2013, are so obvious as to not even be worth mentioning and that is the exploding federal government deficit and ever-expanding national debt, due to surpass its limits within another month or so.
The government needs money. Let me say that again, with emphasis:
THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY!
OK, maybe that was a little harsh on the eyes, but there's no doubting the veracity of that statement. And, since the government needs money, and, since the politicians express this nagging sentiment that they are two parties poles apart on ideology and methodology, when in fact they are one and the same party when it comes to self-survival, the best way to get more money is to raise taxes on everybody and blame each other, which, in the long run, means nobody gets blamed, nobody has to worry about torches, pitchforks and being run out of town on a rail, and everybody gets re-elected, eventually.
For Wall Street, it means more money for corporations, which can and do break every law imaginable in pursuit of profit, and largely get away with it. Or, the traders are just ramping up stocks on the backs of their muppet clients, while quietly cashing out and putting their money into tangible assets like gold, silver, real estate, or stashing it away in the Cayman Islands or some other off-shore tax haven.
Think, for a moment. According to recently released statistics, and demonstrated by this article, in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients (over one million) were added to the economy as jobs (324,000). So, where's the recovery? For everybody who gets a low-wage, no-benefit, glorified part-time job, three people apply for and receive food stamps and become a burden on the working class.
Like so many other concepts and programs in these United States, this is unsustainable, yet the media keeps rminding us that all is well, and that we sould go out and buy the latest iWidget or iGadget for Christmas to keep the economy humming along. Really?
Take a look at the S&P Retail Index (^RLX), which, after a double bottom in late October and early November, has headed south again in the first six days of December.
This, my friends, is the Christmas season, the buying season, the make-or-break season for retailers. If everything is so honkey-dorey, then why is this index rolling over, right at the height of what should be its strongest season.
Maybe the market is just being counter-intuitive, but, more likely, the retailers are being slaughtered. Holiday buying is down, as some luxury retailers have recently expressed, like Tiffany and Nordstrom's, and Kohl's, a mainstream retailer, reported horrifying same-store sales last week. Cannibalization. Zombification. Call it what you will, but, if everybody - not just the rich, but, everybody - is going to pay more in taxes next year, because THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY, how then does the economy look going forward.
Happy Holidays my sweet, firm buns. We're heading over the fiscal cliff by design and the aftermath of crashing billions of dollars below is not going to be very pretty.
I may be completely wrong, but, believe what you like. By all appearances, the deal has already been struck, the politicians are just play-acting, and the deal is that there is no deal. Welcome to the next fork on the road to serfdom.
Am I the only one seeing this for what it is? Where's the fear of the economy rolling over into a recession in the first half of 2013, which the OMB has already expressed would happen were the Bush tax cuts to expire, unemployment benefits be allowed to expire, the reduced take out of Social Security be allowed to expire, and cuts in defense and other programs (the so-called "sequestration") occur all at once?
The congress is set to recess for the holidays on Friday, December 14, four days from now. There simply isn't time enough to craft a substantive deal before then, since nothing at all has been done.
Obama and the Democrats will blame House leader John Boehner and the Republicans, who will blame Obama and the Democrats, and the American people will be left holding the bag, once again, with less in it than before. Tax the rich, tax the poor, tax everybody in between and blame each other. What a plan! Absolutely brilliant!
Market Update at 4:50 pm ET...
Stuck on stupid is about the only way to describe today's market (non)activity. Narrow range (seriously, the Dow was between up 20 and 30 points for almost the entire session) on low volume with the full range of just 55 points was ugly. Totally dead money.
Dow 13,169.88, +14.75 (0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,986.96, +8.92 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,418.55, +0.48 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,322.68, +8.39(0.10%)
NYSE Volume 2,975,303,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,528,722,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3095-2408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 139-61
WTI crude oil: 85.56, -0.37
Gold: 1,714.40, +8.90
Silver: 33.38, +0.246
Friday, December 7, 2012
Dow Gets Big Bump from BLS Jobs Data
Stocks got a boost from better-than-expected non-farm payroll data from the BLS, though the labor participation rate continued to slide. There were 146,000 net new jobs created in November, so no reason to blame Hurricane Sandy for anything. October's number was revised drastically lower, from 171K to 138K.
There was no movement on the fiscal cliff non-negotiations, which was supposed to be what Wall Street feared, though, as we've seen throughout the past 4+ years, anything pertaining to the economics of ordinary people or what happens on Main Street, simply gets brushed aside by Wall Street.
The NASDAQ was dragged down and the S&P weighted down by the continuing slide in shares of Apple (AAPL), a stock that is just plain broken after huge speculative plays over the past two years.
Whistling past the grave, indeed.
Dow 13,155.13, +81.09 (0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,978.04, -11.23 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,418.07, +4.13 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 1.63% +0.05
NYSE Volume 3,086,974,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,612,160,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2797-2656
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-50
WTI crude oil: 85.93, -0.33
Gold: 1,705.50, +3.70
Silver: 33.13, +0.017
There was no movement on the fiscal cliff non-negotiations, which was supposed to be what Wall Street feared, though, as we've seen throughout the past 4+ years, anything pertaining to the economics of ordinary people or what happens on Main Street, simply gets brushed aside by Wall Street.
The NASDAQ was dragged down and the S&P weighted down by the continuing slide in shares of Apple (AAPL), a stock that is just plain broken after huge speculative plays over the past two years.
Whistling past the grave, indeed.
Dow 13,155.13, +81.09 (0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,978.04, -11.23 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,418.07, +4.13 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 1.63% +0.05
NYSE Volume 3,086,974,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,612,160,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2797-2656
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-50
WTI crude oil: 85.93, -0.33
Gold: 1,705.50, +3.70
Silver: 33.13, +0.017
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Bear Trap? Or Can the Markets Move Higher?
For all the sound and fury over the "fiscal cliff" this is a very orderly market, but that's what you get when there's no other asset classes worth owning (supposedly) and everything is neatly controlled and contrived by a select group of insider traders.
Perhaps this is just a well-conceived bear trap, set up perfectly (the Dow is up 522 points since the interim closing bottom on November 15) to ensnare the unsuspecting prey either with the release of tomorrow's non farm payroll figures for November (blame it on Sandy) or the congressional recess on December 14.
Bears can be very cagy. They may be lying patiently in wait. Tomorrow's number should be important, though this market - the levitational beast that it is - may not give a hoot. (OK, too many animal references for one day... good bye)
Dow 13,074.04, +39.55 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 2,989.27, +15.57 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,413.94, +4.66 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 8,280.96, +16.16 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,487,250
NYSE Volume 3,176,728,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2814-2665
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 99-56
WTI crude oil: 86.26, -1.62
Gold: 1,701.80, +8.00
Silver: 33.11, +0.157
Perhaps this is just a well-conceived bear trap, set up perfectly (the Dow is up 522 points since the interim closing bottom on November 15) to ensnare the unsuspecting prey either with the release of tomorrow's non farm payroll figures for November (blame it on Sandy) or the congressional recess on December 14.
Bears can be very cagy. They may be lying patiently in wait. Tomorrow's number should be important, though this market - the levitational beast that it is - may not give a hoot. (OK, too many animal references for one day... good bye)
Dow 13,074.04, +39.55 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 2,989.27, +15.57 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,413.94, +4.66 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 8,280.96, +16.16 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,487,250
NYSE Volume 3,176,728,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2814-2665
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 99-56
WTI crude oil: 86.26, -1.62
Gold: 1,701.80, +8.00
Silver: 33.11, +0.157
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