We took a personal day today, but did notice that the crooks gave back some of the money they stole yesterday, a la the old pump and dump routine.
Most of us had to work, but who could blame anyone for taking some time off to check out NCAA tournament early games.
Oil fell back to earth simply because there was no fundamental reason for oil to gain in price yesterday, as interest rates have about as much to do with the price of oil as saddle soap has to do with masochism (don't get any ideas).
Bottom line is that rich guys who play with other people's money (your pension fund) skimmed and scammed their way to a new car or maybe a year's tuition for their "special" princess.
Whatever. Week ends tomorrow, full report.
Dow 17,959.03, -117.16 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 2,089.27, -10.23 (-0.49%)
NASDAQ 4,992.38, +9.55 (0.19%)
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Fed's Yellen, FOMC Spark Enormous Rally on Dow, Nearly 380+ Points, Oil Up Too
Seriously, this is just plain nonsense.
Print money out of thin air, issue it as debt, give some to the nation's biggest banks and return 1/2% to them on Billions of dollar in excess reserves, constipate the entire lending transmission function, make minute, detailed changes to your statement every month or so, trot out your Chairwoman - who looks like your grandmother - every three months, keep the federal funds rate at ZERO and continuing raping the wealth and resources of your country, forcing everybody into stocks (mostly), bonds and commodities.
It's absolutely brilliant. The banks don't have to pay interest on savings (whatever that old, quaint concept happens to be), and everybody except the general population goes home happy.
The Fed won't raise the federal funds rate for at least six more months, and probably not until 2017. Seriously. It's broken. Grag some gold, guns and land and head for the hills, unless you are a welfare (FSA) mooch, then, live in a city slum, or a suburban slum, which are popping up all over the country.
What a monstrously sad joke is being played on the American public. Too bad it's not funny.
Whether you're old or young, you're getting taken to the cleaners and it's not about to change any time soon.
The Dow Jones Industrials were off by more than 130 points just prior to the FOMC statement at 2:00 pm EDT. It closed up 227.
WTI Crude oil - of which there is an historic oversupply - was under $42/barrel in the morning. By the end of the trading session it was approaching $47/barrel. Supply and demand, my BEHIND.
Dow 18,076.19, +227.11 (1.27%)
S&P 500 2,099.42, +25.14 (1.21%)
NASDAQ 4,982.83, +45.39 (0.92%)
Print money out of thin air, issue it as debt, give some to the nation's biggest banks and return 1/2% to them on Billions of dollar in excess reserves, constipate the entire lending transmission function, make minute, detailed changes to your statement every month or so, trot out your Chairwoman - who looks like your grandmother - every three months, keep the federal funds rate at ZERO and continuing raping the wealth and resources of your country, forcing everybody into stocks (mostly), bonds and commodities.
It's absolutely brilliant. The banks don't have to pay interest on savings (whatever that old, quaint concept happens to be), and everybody except the general population goes home happy.
The Fed won't raise the federal funds rate for at least six more months, and probably not until 2017. Seriously. It's broken. Grag some gold, guns and land and head for the hills, unless you are a welfare (FSA) mooch, then, live in a city slum, or a suburban slum, which are popping up all over the country.
What a monstrously sad joke is being played on the American public. Too bad it's not funny.
Whether you're old or young, you're getting taken to the cleaners and it's not about to change any time soon.
The Dow Jones Industrials were off by more than 130 points just prior to the FOMC statement at 2:00 pm EDT. It closed up 227.
WTI Crude oil - of which there is an historic oversupply - was under $42/barrel in the morning. By the end of the trading session it was approaching $47/barrel. Supply and demand, my BEHIND.
Dow 18,076.19, +227.11 (1.27%)
S&P 500 2,099.42, +25.14 (1.21%)
NASDAQ 4,982.83, +45.39 (0.92%)
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Stocks Confused in Advance of Yellen, Fed Rates; A Glimpse into the Collapse of Upstate New York
Shockingly, the Dow industrials were lower on the day while the momentum-chasing NASDAQ stocks finished with a gain on the day before Janet Yellen and the FOMC issue a rate announcement.
Obviously, rates are not going to move at this meeting, but, what most market observers will be glued to come 2:00 pm EDT on Wednesday is the wording of the FOMC statement, specifically, the use of the "patient" in terms of how the Federal Reserve is viewing their pre-announced rate increase.
The Fed has been careful not to give an exact date or attach any hard figures to any proposed rate increase, only to remain in a prudent position of non-committed bliss.
That they prefer to be shrouded in this kind of monetary mystery has been more than a little disturbing to markets. Many operators would prefer the good old days of endless QE and ZIRP without any mention of a dreadful, future rate increase. However, the Federal Reserve has itself backed into a corner in which it will damage the equity markets with a rate increase and potentially upset the delicate bond-balancing act which has kept rates too low for too long.
It is self-evident that the Fed must do something. The only questions remaining to be answered are what will they do and when will they do it. Traders, speculators, and gamblers of all stripes are hoping to glean some knowledge from the Fed's statement tomorrow.
In the meantime, many are saying this prayer:
The FED is my shepherd, I shall not want.
They maketh me to lie down in fields of digital plenty; they leadeth me to financial liquidity;
They safeguard my portfolio; they leadeth me in paths of security for their financial sake.
Yea though I walk through the valley of the shadow of default, I shall fear no Credit Default Swaps,
For they art with me; their words and actions comfort me.
They have prepared a table of ZIRP and QE before me, in the presence of China and Russia; they have annointed me with POMO; my balances runneth over.
Surely, the American reserve currency shall follow me all the days of my life, and I will dwell in the House of the Almighty Dollar forever and ever.
...and hoping for the best.
A Glimpse Into the Collapsing Nature of Upstate New York
Up here in Rochester, NY, there's a 1/2 hour show every Sunday by the area's largest real estate firm, called the "Nothnagle Gallery of Homes."
It's a good idea to catch it every week, because it provides a fascinating insight into a market that predominantly is a shuffling from one generation to another, without growth, and nearing death thoes due to a variety of economic ad social forces.
At the start of the show are the nice, expensive, executive homes, all over $400,000, some of them pretty decent with acreage, about half of them vacant. As the show continues, they display the moderately-priced category, 135k-250k. Not so good, smaller lots, older houses, more than half vacant, but, this week, a twist. They showed two houses under construction. Really, with the Tyvek™ showing and all. Priced over 200K.
Dead stop. Builders around here are nailed to a cross with with steel. Population is declining, there's a glut of bank REO that's been sitting and deteriorating for years and about 20-30% of everybody in the metro area is either in foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, about to be, underwater, or owes back taxes of two years or more. A massive implosion is coming to upstate NY (Syracuse and Rochester; Buffalo already in the proverbial pooper) which will take down not only the real estate market but the city governments and some of the older suburbs (hopefully state .gov too, but that's another story). Population decline and aging, lack of jobs, crumbling infrastructure, huge municipal pension costs and ineffective (and that's being nice) local governments are feeding the descent into chaos. Rochester, Syracuse and Buffalo's inner cities are crime-ridden, FSA (welfare) strongholds. The city school districts are a complete and utter disaster. High wages for teachers, low graduation rates, scandals, union vs. administration fights are common, as are fights, stabbings, gun confiscations, etc. TPTB are trying to ship some of the little minority cretins out to the suburbs in what they call something like "city-county partnership opportunity" or employing some other liberal wonderland imagery, but the voters in more than a few suburbs have shot down the school board recommendations, saying, in effect, "keep my schools white."
Trouble is brewing here, where the property taxes are the highest in the nation. Shocked was a fellow from South Carolina last week when told that a 30-year mortgage on a $100,000 house here would cost less monthly than the taxes.
That's the truth from an area of the country that's been stripped bare of manufacturing over the years and suffers from too many social programs, sponsored by too few - and becoming fewer every week - taxpayers.
Dow 17,849.08, -128.34 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 2,074.28, -6.91 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ 4,937.44, +7.93 (0.16%)
Obviously, rates are not going to move at this meeting, but, what most market observers will be glued to come 2:00 pm EDT on Wednesday is the wording of the FOMC statement, specifically, the use of the "patient" in terms of how the Federal Reserve is viewing their pre-announced rate increase.
The Fed has been careful not to give an exact date or attach any hard figures to any proposed rate increase, only to remain in a prudent position of non-committed bliss.
That they prefer to be shrouded in this kind of monetary mystery has been more than a little disturbing to markets. Many operators would prefer the good old days of endless QE and ZIRP without any mention of a dreadful, future rate increase. However, the Federal Reserve has itself backed into a corner in which it will damage the equity markets with a rate increase and potentially upset the delicate bond-balancing act which has kept rates too low for too long.
It is self-evident that the Fed must do something. The only questions remaining to be answered are what will they do and when will they do it. Traders, speculators, and gamblers of all stripes are hoping to glean some knowledge from the Fed's statement tomorrow.
In the meantime, many are saying this prayer:
The FED is my shepherd, I shall not want.
They maketh me to lie down in fields of digital plenty; they leadeth me to financial liquidity;
They safeguard my portfolio; they leadeth me in paths of security for their financial sake.
Yea though I walk through the valley of the shadow of default, I shall fear no Credit Default Swaps,
For they art with me; their words and actions comfort me.
They have prepared a table of ZIRP and QE before me, in the presence of China and Russia; they have annointed me with POMO; my balances runneth over.
Surely, the American reserve currency shall follow me all the days of my life, and I will dwell in the House of the Almighty Dollar forever and ever.
...and hoping for the best.
A Glimpse Into the Collapsing Nature of Upstate New York
Up here in Rochester, NY, there's a 1/2 hour show every Sunday by the area's largest real estate firm, called the "Nothnagle Gallery of Homes."
It's a good idea to catch it every week, because it provides a fascinating insight into a market that predominantly is a shuffling from one generation to another, without growth, and nearing death thoes due to a variety of economic ad social forces.
At the start of the show are the nice, expensive, executive homes, all over $400,000, some of them pretty decent with acreage, about half of them vacant. As the show continues, they display the moderately-priced category, 135k-250k. Not so good, smaller lots, older houses, more than half vacant, but, this week, a twist. They showed two houses under construction. Really, with the Tyvek™ showing and all. Priced over 200K.
Dead stop. Builders around here are nailed to a cross with with steel. Population is declining, there's a glut of bank REO that's been sitting and deteriorating for years and about 20-30% of everybody in the metro area is either in foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, about to be, underwater, or owes back taxes of two years or more. A massive implosion is coming to upstate NY (Syracuse and Rochester; Buffalo already in the proverbial pooper) which will take down not only the real estate market but the city governments and some of the older suburbs (hopefully state .gov too, but that's another story). Population decline and aging, lack of jobs, crumbling infrastructure, huge municipal pension costs and ineffective (and that's being nice) local governments are feeding the descent into chaos. Rochester, Syracuse and Buffalo's inner cities are crime-ridden, FSA (welfare) strongholds. The city school districts are a complete and utter disaster. High wages for teachers, low graduation rates, scandals, union vs. administration fights are common, as are fights, stabbings, gun confiscations, etc. TPTB are trying to ship some of the little minority cretins out to the suburbs in what they call something like "city-county partnership opportunity" or employing some other liberal wonderland imagery, but the voters in more than a few suburbs have shot down the school board recommendations, saying, in effect, "keep my schools white."
Trouble is brewing here, where the property taxes are the highest in the nation. Shocked was a fellow from South Carolina last week when told that a 30-year mortgage on a $100,000 house here would cost less monthly than the taxes.
That's the truth from an area of the country that's been stripped bare of manufacturing over the years and suffers from too many social programs, sponsored by too few - and becoming fewer every week - taxpayers.
Dow 17,849.08, -128.34 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 2,074.28, -6.91 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ 4,937.44, +7.93 (0.16%)
Monday, March 16, 2015
Stcks soar on No News; Michael Hudson's Scathing Remarks on Wealth Inequality
On a day in which there was an absolute vacuum of substantial news concerning the economy or stocks in general, markets did what they have become used to doing on such days in the era of ZIRP and QE. Stocks went straight up at the open and added to gains throughout the day.
It is specifically on days like today that the banks and brokerages make their best money, capturing the gains right at the opening bell, without interference from retail riff-raff, and holding them up with small trades during the session. Anybody even thinking about shorting or playing puts against the small tide of buyers gets what's come to be known as having one's face ripped off.
As gruesome as it sounds, the reality of losing money because one is not a member of the 1% tribe and does not believe stocks should be trading at astronomical levels, is painful to the pocket and a cause for many small-time investors and traders to throw in the towel completely.
Such is the nature of markets completely under the control of the biggest and most well-heeled players, complete with front-running HTF computer algos that are able to nab 20% or more of any gains simply by being there a millisecond ahead of any order. while that fact may not be disturbing to some, it should be a concern to anybody who feels that wealth inequality is consistently changing the nature of society, markets and money, and not in any good way.
To that effect, professor Michael Hudson recently provided a glimpse into the new world of finance - unregulated, unbalanced and utterly destructive - in an article published at Counterpunch called Quantitative Easing for Whom?
Hudson, a distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, was interviewed by SHARMINI PERIES, and his commentary spells out in detail how zero interest rates and quantitative easing has helped the elite to the detriment of the rest of society.
It's quite a read and elegant in its straightforward honesty and truthful simplicity. Perhaps the most poignant phrase is the following:
or this:
It's a very good read for such a short article, and points up just how enslaved the middle class (what's left of it) has become and how government and the Fed have completely distorted the economy to the exclusive benefit of a small handful of very, very wealthy families.
The condition of the world is sad and true.
Dow 17,977.42, +228.11 (1.29%)
S&P 500, 2,081.19, +27.79 (1.35%)
NASDAQ 4,929.51, +57.75 (1.19%)
It is specifically on days like today that the banks and brokerages make their best money, capturing the gains right at the opening bell, without interference from retail riff-raff, and holding them up with small trades during the session. Anybody even thinking about shorting or playing puts against the small tide of buyers gets what's come to be known as having one's face ripped off.
As gruesome as it sounds, the reality of losing money because one is not a member of the 1% tribe and does not believe stocks should be trading at astronomical levels, is painful to the pocket and a cause for many small-time investors and traders to throw in the towel completely.
Such is the nature of markets completely under the control of the biggest and most well-heeled players, complete with front-running HTF computer algos that are able to nab 20% or more of any gains simply by being there a millisecond ahead of any order. while that fact may not be disturbing to some, it should be a concern to anybody who feels that wealth inequality is consistently changing the nature of society, markets and money, and not in any good way.
To that effect, professor Michael Hudson recently provided a glimpse into the new world of finance - unregulated, unbalanced and utterly destructive - in an article published at Counterpunch called Quantitative Easing for Whom?
Hudson, a distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, was interviewed by SHARMINI PERIES, and his commentary spells out in detail how zero interest rates and quantitative easing has helped the elite to the detriment of the rest of society.
It's quite a read and elegant in its straightforward honesty and truthful simplicity. Perhaps the most poignant phrase is the following:
Banks lend money mainly to transfer ownership of real estate. They also lend money to corporate raiders. They lend money to buy assets. But they don’t lend money for companies to invest in equipment and hire more workers. Just the opposite. When they lend money to corporate raiders to take over companies, the new buyers outsource labor, downsize the work force, and try to squeeze out more work. They also try to grab the pensions.
or this:
...when hedge funds and the big banks – Goldman Sachs, Citibank – see a pension fund manager coming through the door, they think, “How can I take what’s in his pocket and put it in mine?” So they rip them off. That is why there are so many big lawsuits against Wall Street for mismanaging pension fund money.
It's a very good read for such a short article, and points up just how enslaved the middle class (what's left of it) has become and how government and the Fed have completely distorted the economy to the exclusive benefit of a small handful of very, very wealthy families.
The condition of the world is sad and true.
Dow 17,977.42, +228.11 (1.29%)
S&P 500, 2,081.19, +27.79 (1.35%)
NASDAQ 4,929.51, +57.75 (1.19%)
Friday, March 13, 2015
Week Ends Poorly for Stocks, as PPI Indicates Deflation, Euro Falls, Dollar Rallies
Since stocks are close to all-time highs, there isn't much in the way of analysis to explain marginal moves in one direction or another, except along the lines of anticipatory buying/selling in the face of a potential Fed rate hike in June... or September... or never.
That's why it was a little surprising to see stocks fall on news that the PPI registered an outsize negative number this morning, indicative of outright deflation, the one thing of which the Fed and the government are deathly afraid.
PPI had dropped 0.8 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, producer prices fell 0.6 percent, the first decline since the series was revamped in 2009. February PPI, measured on a month-t-month basis, fell 0.5 percent.
Falling prices mean less spending, and less spending begets lower prices in a competitive environment (according to economics 101) and lower prices, as part of the spiral, means lower wages, or, at least no raises in wages, but it's what has been occurring, more or less, since the last financial crisis in 2008-09. One need only know where to look for deals and bargains; they are out there.
But, lower prices cause all kinds of problems for the Fed, already at the zero-bound on rates, because the have no tools to fight deflation, since the entire banking regimen depends on at least some inflation, all the time and everywhere.
Lower oil prices were just the first symptom of the deflation problem, or, maybe the second, following stagnant wages and a lack of job growth (forget the unemployment figures - they're a sham) and now the decline in the price around which everything else revolves has gotten the vicious cycle working overtime. The dollar rising is another ancillary symptom of a moribund economy, one which is about to keel over and die for good, something it should have done in 2009. The other shoe is dropping, and the Fed isn't going to be able to catch this one before it hits the floor with an awful thud. Imports are becoming cheaper, due to just about all our trading partners desperately devaluing their currencies.
The Dollar Index shot up over 100 today, closing at 99.41, a twelve-year high. The euro dipped below 1.05 again. It is rapidly approaching parity with the dollar, and will likely be worth less than a greenback within mere months.
Without inflation, people save instead of spend, pay down debt instead of incurring more, and generally speaking, life gets better for the average Joe or Jane consumer. The honest truth is that banks - at the heart of our global economic malaise - don't want people out of debt, they want them deeper and deeper in debt.
And, if wages stagnate or decline, and people get laid off, the government collects less in taxes and - boo-hoo - they can't service the debt (they can't anyhow, that's proven by our $18 trillion national debt, but that's another story) or provide needed (or unneeded) services.
So, rock, meet hard place. And that's why even if a stinking bad economy keeps Wall Street flush with fresh money from the Fed printing press, it's still a bad economy that is, in the end, unsustainable.
That is about the best guess as to why stocks sold off today, even on BAD news, which was supposed to be GOOD.
Stocks were also down for the week. The Dow fell 107.47 (-0.60%); the S&P shed 17.86 (-0.86%) and the NASDAQ led the downside move, losing 55.61 (-1.13%). It was the second straight weekly loss for the NASDAQ and the Dow, the third in a row for the S&P.
Closing Prices (3/13):
Dow Jones 17,749.31, -145.91 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 2,053.40, -12.55 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ 4,871.76, -21.53 (-0.44%)
That's why it was a little surprising to see stocks fall on news that the PPI registered an outsize negative number this morning, indicative of outright deflation, the one thing of which the Fed and the government are deathly afraid.
PPI had dropped 0.8 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, producer prices fell 0.6 percent, the first decline since the series was revamped in 2009. February PPI, measured on a month-t-month basis, fell 0.5 percent.
Falling prices mean less spending, and less spending begets lower prices in a competitive environment (according to economics 101) and lower prices, as part of the spiral, means lower wages, or, at least no raises in wages, but it's what has been occurring, more or less, since the last financial crisis in 2008-09. One need only know where to look for deals and bargains; they are out there.
But, lower prices cause all kinds of problems for the Fed, already at the zero-bound on rates, because the have no tools to fight deflation, since the entire banking regimen depends on at least some inflation, all the time and everywhere.
Lower oil prices were just the first symptom of the deflation problem, or, maybe the second, following stagnant wages and a lack of job growth (forget the unemployment figures - they're a sham) and now the decline in the price around which everything else revolves has gotten the vicious cycle working overtime. The dollar rising is another ancillary symptom of a moribund economy, one which is about to keel over and die for good, something it should have done in 2009. The other shoe is dropping, and the Fed isn't going to be able to catch this one before it hits the floor with an awful thud. Imports are becoming cheaper, due to just about all our trading partners desperately devaluing their currencies.
The Dollar Index shot up over 100 today, closing at 99.41, a twelve-year high. The euro dipped below 1.05 again. It is rapidly approaching parity with the dollar, and will likely be worth less than a greenback within mere months.
Without inflation, people save instead of spend, pay down debt instead of incurring more, and generally speaking, life gets better for the average Joe or Jane consumer. The honest truth is that banks - at the heart of our global economic malaise - don't want people out of debt, they want them deeper and deeper in debt.
And, if wages stagnate or decline, and people get laid off, the government collects less in taxes and - boo-hoo - they can't service the debt (they can't anyhow, that's proven by our $18 trillion national debt, but that's another story) or provide needed (or unneeded) services.
So, rock, meet hard place. And that's why even if a stinking bad economy keeps Wall Street flush with fresh money from the Fed printing press, it's still a bad economy that is, in the end, unsustainable.
That is about the best guess as to why stocks sold off today, even on BAD news, which was supposed to be GOOD.
Stocks were also down for the week. The Dow fell 107.47 (-0.60%); the S&P shed 17.86 (-0.86%) and the NASDAQ led the downside move, losing 55.61 (-1.13%). It was the second straight weekly loss for the NASDAQ and the Dow, the third in a row for the S&P.
Closing Prices (3/13):
Dow Jones 17,749.31, -145.91 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 2,053.40, -12.55 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ 4,871.76, -21.53 (-0.44%)
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