Stocks fell today, first hard, then made a daylong comeback to close near the unchanged mark.
It was rather a random day in the world of high finance. Ten-year and 30-year treasuries each closed off a pip, 2.21 and 2.93, respectively, while the 2-year note budged upward from 0.97 to 0.98, tightening and flattening the spread. It wasn't a monumental move, but noticeable to anyone paying attention. The market didn't really appreciate the boost in the fed funds rate and the displeasure is being voiced by various, subtle means, like the desperation in high yields, and the shut-off of the banking spigot that funded stock buybacks for most of the last five years.
It's probably better, right now, to keep a close eye on the bond market. It may turn out to be the place for volatility and profit in 2016, especially if the Federal Reserve follows through on their plans for three or four more rate hikes by this time next year. That is an unlikely event, though "normalization" is what the Fed continues to say they are aiming for, though a truly normal economy won't likely materialize for three or four more years, if they're lucky.
To have a 10-year treasury yielding 4-5% would be quite an accomplishment by 2019 or 2020, considering all the damage already done by over a decade of fed fund rates at one percent or lower.
Equity markets were decidedly dull, as there are few trades to be made of any importance this late in the game, though the markets are still well below all-time highs reached in May, especially the broad gauge of the S&P, which cannot seem to get out of its own way.
Today was mostly gibberish, as will likely be the case the remainder of the week, and the year. It's hard to draw any conclusions from the last week's trading in a calendar year. The first week of January will be much more insightful.
WTI crude was slapped back down from last week's euphoric and ridiculous closing level, finishing the day at 36.72/barrel. Anyone calling a bottom around here just hasn't considered the slack in the economy and the production glut facing producers. It's a huge problem, but nobody wants to cut production, even at these lower prices, constituting a possible new normal.
S&P 500, 2,056.50, -4.49 (0.22%)
Dow, 17,528.27, -23.90 (0.14%)
NASDAQ, 5,040.99, -7.51 (0.15%)
Monday, December 28, 2015
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
China Steel Exports To USA Subject To 256% Tariff
Remember, folks, the US Department of Commerce has your backs.
The department is recommending that the United States impose a tariff on steel imports from China of 256%, because they feel China has been dumping steel on the market and causing a severe disruption in the price, negatively affecting US steel producers.
Gee, really? What's next, tariffs on electronics, cars, just about anything you buy at Wal-Mart or nearly anywhere in America?
Where's the great Ben Bernanke when you need him? You know, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve who is an EXPERT on the Great Depression.
Why do we need the Big Bernank now? Because, his expertise would prevail on our glorious government goofballs that protectionism is exactly what made the Great Depression so (not) great.
You take depressed markets overfull of inventory, tack on tariffs and you get exactly what the Fed wants in order to hide its horrible policies: velocity of money at zero, falling wages, layoffs and now, the kicker, goods too expensive for anybody to buy. Pure genius, these guys looking out for all of us little people.
This is just the beginning. Expect to see more trade protectionism going forward and more countries falling into recession. Add it all up and you have Great Depression 2.0.
It's not going to happen all of a sudden, because the Fed is still fighting deflation. But, when the going gets rough, really rough, like when Wall Street (hell) freezes over and commits suicide in a crash of stocks of companies that have been repurchasing their own shares for the past six years and they lay off millions of workers, that's when the government will move in full force with trade restrictions and tariffs so that Americans can't purchase anything from the evil Chinamen.
Maybe somebody should have thought about this before we sent all of our manufacturing base over to the Red Dragons. Then again, maybe they did.
Meanwhile, the Santa Claus rally continues on Wall Street. The S&P gained enough today to show a small profit for the year and the Dow Jones Industrials are closing in on being black for 2015.
The department is recommending that the United States impose a tariff on steel imports from China of 256%, because they feel China has been dumping steel on the market and causing a severe disruption in the price, negatively affecting US steel producers.
Gee, really? What's next, tariffs on electronics, cars, just about anything you buy at Wal-Mart or nearly anywhere in America?
Where's the great Ben Bernanke when you need him? You know, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve who is an EXPERT on the Great Depression.
Why do we need the Big Bernank now? Because, his expertise would prevail on our glorious government goofballs that protectionism is exactly what made the Great Depression so (not) great.
You take depressed markets overfull of inventory, tack on tariffs and you get exactly what the Fed wants in order to hide its horrible policies: velocity of money at zero, falling wages, layoffs and now, the kicker, goods too expensive for anybody to buy. Pure genius, these guys looking out for all of us little people.
This is just the beginning. Expect to see more trade protectionism going forward and more countries falling into recession. Add it all up and you have Great Depression 2.0.
It's not going to happen all of a sudden, because the Fed is still fighting deflation. But, when the going gets rough, really rough, like when Wall Street (hell) freezes over and commits suicide in a crash of stocks of companies that have been repurchasing their own shares for the past six years and they lay off millions of workers, that's when the government will move in full force with trade restrictions and tariffs so that Americans can't purchase anything from the evil Chinamen.
Maybe somebody should have thought about this before we sent all of our manufacturing base over to the Red Dragons. Then again, maybe they did.
Meanwhile, the Santa Claus rally continues on Wall Street. The S&P gained enough today to show a small profit for the year and the Dow Jones Industrials are closing in on being black for 2015.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stocks' Santa Rally Based On Nothing In Particular
The word for the day was "oversold," in essence green lighting all the algos on the belief that stocks were still undervalued, despite the S&P 500 average P/E of 22, when the norm is 15.
Whatever sparked the rally du jour must have been a highly-held secret, because nothing much has changed and today's economic news - third GDP revision for the 3rd quarter came in at an even 2%, and existing home sales were down 10.5% month-over-month (the lowest annualized rate since April 2014), and that was before the Fed and the banks hiked interest rates.
As for GDP, the third quarter reading was 0.1% lower than the previous estimate, and down sharply from the second quarter, when the economy supposedly grew at a mind-blowing 3.9%. Adding in the 1st quarter's decline of 0.7%, the fourth quarter will have to have grown by 2.8%, a seemingly reasonable quest, to get the entire year at a 2% growth rate. What a recovery!
Given that retail sales have been sluggish at best and inventories rising, it will be a struggle for the economy to show a gain of that size. However, the brilliant economists at the BLS certainly can massage the numbers enough to wring out nearly 3% growth, somehow.
So, Santa Claus has arrived on Wall Street. There are just two more days of trading this week and six total for the year, and stocks are showing that 2015 will end essentially flat.
Here are closing prices at the end of 2014:
S&P: 2,058.90
Dow: 17,823.07
NASDAQ: 4,736.05
The NAZ looks to have gains in the bag, while the S&P and Dow have some work left to do. Ho, ho, ho.
Today's closing numbers:
S&P 500: 2,038.97, +17.82 (0.88%)
Dow: 17,417.27, +165.65 (0.96%)
NASDAQ: 5,001.11, +32.19 (0.65%)
Whatever sparked the rally du jour must have been a highly-held secret, because nothing much has changed and today's economic news - third GDP revision for the 3rd quarter came in at an even 2%, and existing home sales were down 10.5% month-over-month (the lowest annualized rate since April 2014), and that was before the Fed and the banks hiked interest rates.
As for GDP, the third quarter reading was 0.1% lower than the previous estimate, and down sharply from the second quarter, when the economy supposedly grew at a mind-blowing 3.9%. Adding in the 1st quarter's decline of 0.7%, the fourth quarter will have to have grown by 2.8%, a seemingly reasonable quest, to get the entire year at a 2% growth rate. What a recovery!
Given that retail sales have been sluggish at best and inventories rising, it will be a struggle for the economy to show a gain of that size. However, the brilliant economists at the BLS certainly can massage the numbers enough to wring out nearly 3% growth, somehow.
So, Santa Claus has arrived on Wall Street. There are just two more days of trading this week and six total for the year, and stocks are showing that 2015 will end essentially flat.
Here are closing prices at the end of 2014:
S&P: 2,058.90
Dow: 17,823.07
NASDAQ: 4,736.05
The NAZ looks to have gains in the bag, while the S&P and Dow have some work left to do. Ho, ho, ho.
Today's closing numbers:
S&P 500: 2,038.97, +17.82 (0.88%)
Dow: 17,417.27, +165.65 (0.96%)
NASDAQ: 5,001.11, +32.19 (0.65%)
Monday, December 21, 2015
The Awakening Continues...
I would like to get back to the kind of world that existed when I knew nothing, when I was a kid, in the early 60s, before the MICC (Wilkerson's inclusion of "Congressional" to the standard MIC is essential and poignant) killed JFK.
Yeah, maybe America wasn't innocent and perfect, but it was miles ahead of what we have today. Anecdotally, my neighborhood, suburban Rochester (Irondequoit) was still largely a farming center. There were huge greenhouses just four doors down the street from me. And fruitstands, and kids riding bikes with no helmets, and cars without seatbelts and cops would would "give you a break" instead of "breaking your face."
Gradually, the farms were replaced with apartments, more apartments, stores, new homes, and the local government got bigger, and bigger and bigger. The town today is mostly still middle class, but the folks from the 60s and 70s have moved on. There are many more rentals, the shopping plaza that used to be all white shoppers is now 60-70% minorities, many of them on public assistance. The government is enormous. The school superintendant makes $285,000 a year, with golden pension, super health benefits, etc. The teachers make more money and have better benefits than 80% of the people they "serve."
It's all gone backwards. Our current system must come to an end, either by financial degradation (our best case) or armed conflict of private sector citizens against the "public servants." The government must be reigned in, and we must take our country back, because if we don't, there will be nothing left to salvage. We can start by opposing every school budget proposal and knocking school systems back to 1960s levels.
There will be great pain, so be on the right side. Private industry. Smaller government. Live and act without fear. It is the only way.
Published December 11, 2015, Abby Martin interviews retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former national security advisor to the Reagan administration, who spent years as an assistant to Secretary of State Colin Powell during both Bush administrations. Today, he is honest about the unfixable corruption inside the establishment and the corporate interests driving foreign policy.
Hear a rare insider's view of what interests are behind U.S. wars, the manipulation of intelligence, the intertwining of the military and corporate world, and why the U.S. Empire is doomed.
Yeah, maybe America wasn't innocent and perfect, but it was miles ahead of what we have today. Anecdotally, my neighborhood, suburban Rochester (Irondequoit) was still largely a farming center. There were huge greenhouses just four doors down the street from me. And fruitstands, and kids riding bikes with no helmets, and cars without seatbelts and cops would would "give you a break" instead of "breaking your face."
Gradually, the farms were replaced with apartments, more apartments, stores, new homes, and the local government got bigger, and bigger and bigger. The town today is mostly still middle class, but the folks from the 60s and 70s have moved on. There are many more rentals, the shopping plaza that used to be all white shoppers is now 60-70% minorities, many of them on public assistance. The government is enormous. The school superintendant makes $285,000 a year, with golden pension, super health benefits, etc. The teachers make more money and have better benefits than 80% of the people they "serve."
It's all gone backwards. Our current system must come to an end, either by financial degradation (our best case) or armed conflict of private sector citizens against the "public servants." The government must be reigned in, and we must take our country back, because if we don't, there will be nothing left to salvage. We can start by opposing every school budget proposal and knocking school systems back to 1960s levels.
There will be great pain, so be on the right side. Private industry. Smaller government. Live and act without fear. It is the only way.
Published December 11, 2015, Abby Martin interviews retired U.S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former national security advisor to the Reagan administration, who spent years as an assistant to Secretary of State Colin Powell during both Bush administrations. Today, he is honest about the unfixable corruption inside the establishment and the corporate interests driving foreign policy.
Hear a rare insider's view of what interests are behind U.S. wars, the manipulation of intelligence, the intertwining of the military and corporate world, and why the U.S. Empire is doomed.
Friday, December 18, 2015
The Big Reset Has Begun; Prepare Accordingly; Stocks Skid to 2-Month Lows
Coincidence?
Try these events from the past three days:
Kerry meets with Putin, says Assad can stay as ruler of Syria. US policy neutered.
Biden calls off Turkey, tells them to stop violating Iraq's borders. US policy neutered.
Fed raised Fed funds rate, banks raise prime rate.
Putin publicly backs Trump.
Ukraine defaults on Russian debt. While this may appear bad for Russia, it's worse for Ukraine, and even worse for US policy.
Today, the plug will be pulled on over a trillion$ in SPY options. Winners and losers, lots of both.
The world has changed radically in the past week. Trump is now the de facto US President. Obama can go to Hawaii and stay there for all the world leaders care. Kerry had no power; now he has even less, if that's possible.
Just watch: terrorism will be a non-starter for 2016. US intel has been found out (by Putin) and he's putting an end to it all.
Will truth and justice return to America? Just like bankruptcy, gradually, then all of a sudden.
h/t to Ernest Hemingway
Then, there's this cryptic note - citing Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter - found in the comments section on a Zero Hedge article.
At 11:00 am ET, the S&P already dumped 2030 and 2020. Getting closer to the magic mark of 2000.
Don't actually think it matters if it happens today, tomorrow, next week or next year. The crash has been underway since late May, the last time the NAZ, S&P and Dow all set new all time highs.
The trash is being taken to the dumpster. Watch terrorism disappear as a major story. The meme for 2016 will be economic security, and Trump will win easily.
In fact, since Putin's endorsement yesterday, some would wager that in the minds of most world leaders, Trump is already the US de facto president. Obummer is so over. Hillary is a non-starter. Change is good; best to be out in front of it. The elections will be all for show, since Trump is self-financed. The money machine(s) is/are grinding to a halt.
Americans are going to see the fruits of what the Fed and the federal government, state governments, and local governments have sewn: TRASH. Loads of TRASH, piled high, heaped upon more loads of TRASH.
Bankruptcies should absolutely soar in 2016. Corporate failures and bond defaults will accelerate. Pensions will default on payments. The US will slowly, painfully, resort to honest money. GOLD AND SILVER WILL SOAR.
A BIG THANK YOU TO JANET and THE FOMC. THANKS, YOU NITWITS.
David Stockman really nailed it in his post at Contra Corner Blog.
And, while the economy slowly crumbles, congress (which obviously didn't get the memo that they're fired) conveniently passed a $1.15 trillion omnibus budget bill with the notorious CISA government spying act included.
At the end of the week (the last full week of 2015), the figures for the major averages look pretty stupid.
The Dow was smacked down a whipping 367 points, closing at 17,128.59, the lowest closing price since mid-October. For the week, the DJI was off nearly one percent, down 136.62 points.
The S&P nearly got to the 2000 mark, closing down 36.43, at 2005.46 on the day, but lost just 6.95 for the week. On the NASDAQ, it was a 1.59% loss, down 79.47, at 4973.08. On a weekly basis, it doesn't look bad on the surface, as the NAZ lost a mere 10 points.
However, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were all up days for the major indices. Thursday and Friday were down, and down big, erasing all of the early-week gains. From the highs after the FOMC meeting, on Wednesday's close, the losses portend further losses next week. a cleansing of bad assets is well underway, and there are plenty of bad ones in all markets.
Also, the entire treasury curve flattened. The 10-year yield, in particular, dropped 10 basis points from 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, the moment of the FMOC rate hike announcement, ending the week at 2.20%. If the Fed's master plan was working, shouldn't all bond yields - especially those of shorter durations - have gone up? This is a classic example of the market rejecting the Fed, with more to come, as the Fed thinks it's going to raise rates four more times in 2016, a recipe for economic cataclysm.
Lastly, keep a close eye on the banks (JPM, BAC, C, GS, WFC, MS) as they were all lower by 2-3% on the day.
David Bowie's Changes should suffice as an appropriate song for a truly epic week:
Try these events from the past three days:
Kerry meets with Putin, says Assad can stay as ruler of Syria. US policy neutered.
Biden calls off Turkey, tells them to stop violating Iraq's borders. US policy neutered.
Fed raised Fed funds rate, banks raise prime rate.
Putin publicly backs Trump.
Ukraine defaults on Russian debt. While this may appear bad for Russia, it's worse for Ukraine, and even worse for US policy.
Today, the plug will be pulled on over a trillion$ in SPY options. Winners and losers, lots of both.
The world has changed radically in the past week. Trump is now the de facto US President. Obama can go to Hawaii and stay there for all the world leaders care. Kerry had no power; now he has even less, if that's possible.
Just watch: terrorism will be a non-starter for 2016. US intel has been found out (by Putin) and he's putting an end to it all.
Will truth and justice return to America? Just like bankruptcy, gradually, then all of a sudden.
h/t to Ernest Hemingway
Then, there's this cryptic note - citing Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter - found in the comments section on a Zero Hedge article.
GLOBAL RESET HAS BEEN TRIGGERED, THE PROCESS BEGUN, THE VOICE FINALLY WARNS... THE EVENTS HAVE BEGUN, AND THE USFED RATE HIKE MIGHT HAVE BEEN PART OF THE GLOBAL DECISION. $$$
The Voice gives an urgent warning that finally the breakdown is accelerating, the damage profound, the effects unmistakable, the plug pulled. The officials have not undertaken any remedy for several years. His message is clear and stark, the first time such a communication has been given to the Jackass and colleagues. It was given just a few days before the USFed rate hike decision was made. "Guys, the plug has been pulled. Let the show begin. Our organization has been alerted accordingly to that effect this morning at 4am, that the deed is done. The battle trigger code has been chosen. It will get incredibly ugly, as real casualties will result. The annihilation of entire groups of people within the corrupt and criminal systems will be unimaginable to normal humanoids. These systems will be totally dismembered and crushed, never to be resurrected. The cabal is being caught in a grand dragnet, with the outcome certain to be their extermination, along with all their agents and collaborators. [1] The effects of this event driven scenario will become visible to the ordinary people in early 2016 and forward. Once the dust settles, it is clear to me that the human population will be noticeably lower, with fewer people roaming this planet." The Voice is referring to the Satanist Bank Cabal groups. We mere mortals hope that reason prevails, that remedy is agreed upon, that transition is orderly, so that a billion people do not needlessly perish. But the Anglo-Americans have their favorite nuclear and virus toys. We have seen ample evidence of their chemical plant explosions as a warm-up to main events.
Our organization has been alerted accordingly...
At 11:00 am ET, the S&P already dumped 2030 and 2020. Getting closer to the magic mark of 2000.
Don't actually think it matters if it happens today, tomorrow, next week or next year. The crash has been underway since late May, the last time the NAZ, S&P and Dow all set new all time highs.
The trash is being taken to the dumpster. Watch terrorism disappear as a major story. The meme for 2016 will be economic security, and Trump will win easily.
In fact, since Putin's endorsement yesterday, some would wager that in the minds of most world leaders, Trump is already the US de facto president. Obummer is so over. Hillary is a non-starter. Change is good; best to be out in front of it. The elections will be all for show, since Trump is self-financed. The money machine(s) is/are grinding to a halt.
Americans are going to see the fruits of what the Fed and the federal government, state governments, and local governments have sewn: TRASH. Loads of TRASH, piled high, heaped upon more loads of TRASH.
Bankruptcies should absolutely soar in 2016. Corporate failures and bond defaults will accelerate. Pensions will default on payments. The US will slowly, painfully, resort to honest money. GOLD AND SILVER WILL SOAR.
A BIG THANK YOU TO JANET and THE FOMC. THANKS, YOU NITWITS.David Stockman really nailed it in his post at Contra Corner Blog.
And, while the economy slowly crumbles, congress (which obviously didn't get the memo that they're fired) conveniently passed a $1.15 trillion omnibus budget bill with the notorious CISA government spying act included.
At the end of the week (the last full week of 2015), the figures for the major averages look pretty stupid.
The Dow was smacked down a whipping 367 points, closing at 17,128.59, the lowest closing price since mid-October. For the week, the DJI was off nearly one percent, down 136.62 points.
The S&P nearly got to the 2000 mark, closing down 36.43, at 2005.46 on the day, but lost just 6.95 for the week. On the NASDAQ, it was a 1.59% loss, down 79.47, at 4973.08. On a weekly basis, it doesn't look bad on the surface, as the NAZ lost a mere 10 points.
However, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were all up days for the major indices. Thursday and Friday were down, and down big, erasing all of the early-week gains. From the highs after the FOMC meeting, on Wednesday's close, the losses portend further losses next week. a cleansing of bad assets is well underway, and there are plenty of bad ones in all markets.
Also, the entire treasury curve flattened. The 10-year yield, in particular, dropped 10 basis points from 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, the moment of the FMOC rate hike announcement, ending the week at 2.20%. If the Fed's master plan was working, shouldn't all bond yields - especially those of shorter durations - have gone up? This is a classic example of the market rejecting the Fed, with more to come, as the Fed thinks it's going to raise rates four more times in 2016, a recipe for economic cataclysm.
Lastly, keep a close eye on the banks (JPM, BAC, C, GS, WFC, MS) as they were all lower by 2-3% on the day.
David Bowie's Changes should suffice as an appropriate song for a truly epic week:
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